Prospectus for the EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN PREDICTION FORUM
(ePOPf; pronounced e-POP-f)
DRAFT (26 JUL 10 by Chris Mooers/PSU (cmooers@cecs.pdx.edu))
On behalf of the ePOPf ad hoc Organizing Committee comprised of
Art Miller, SIO/UCSD
Yi Chao, JPL/UCLA
Chris Edwards, UCSC
Roger Samelson, OSU
Ted Strub, OSU
Chris Mooers, PSU
Barbara Hickey, UW
Parker MacCready, UW
Canadian Associates
Mike Foreman, IOS
Rick Thomson, IOS
Mexican Associates
Alejandro Pares, CICESE
Guido Marinone, CICESE
PREFACE. The intention to form a grassroots activity (ePOPf) devoted to Eastern
Pacific ocean prediction was announced at the 56th Annual EPOC 24 to 26 SEP 09.
{EPOC = Eastern Pacific Oceanic Conference} ePOPf’s goal is to seek the
incorporation of the “best scientific ideas” and technical/methodological “best
practices” into the design, development, operation, skill assessment, utilization, and
evolution of ocean prediction systems of the Eastern Pacific, and to advocate for the
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availability of the necessary resources for the community to achieve an efficacious
performance of the developing and evolving ocean prediction systems. Its short-term
objectives are to (1) adopt or establish a first-generation, sustained super-regional scale
(defined below) ocean prediction system; (2) conduct a skill assessment “testbed”
activity for the super-regional scale; and (3) arrange for a re-analysis activity on the
super-regional scale. Its charge is to foster inclusive mechanisms for (1)
communication and organization within the research community, (2) communication
and coordination with the operational prediction community, and (3) provision of
expertise and advocacy to stakeholders and sponsors, all in support of the
development and evolution of Eastern Pacific ocean prediction systems.
ePOPf Vision. Within a few decades, sustained ocean prediction will become a
standard activity. It will be conducted in the framework of experimental and
operational ocean prediction systems. These systems will be designed to provide the
ocean environmental and ecological information required by a multiplicity of so-called
“users”. The “user” population will include researchers conducting diagnostic studies
of climate and global change, ecosystem-based studies of fisheries ecology, etc. As well,
the “user” population will include various categories of emergency, resource, and
environmental & ecological managers in governmental agencies and commercial
enterprises. These operational ocean prediction systems will be comprised of sustained,
real-time, delayed-time, and archived (both satellite-derived and in situ-based)
observing subsystems, (numerical and statistical) modeling and analysis subsystems,
and Web-based information management subsystems (that facilitate data access and
utilization). They will predict, with known error attributes, the basic physical, chemical,
and ecological state variables of the synoptic ocean in forecast, nowcast, hindcast, and
simulation modes. The ocean prediction systems will be comprised of a nested
hierarchy of modeling and observing subsystems because computational technology
will not permit managing predictions in all subdomains simultaneously, “user” needs
and “provider” capabilities will differ among subdomains, and predominant ocean
dynamics varies between subdomains. For example, the nested hierarchy may link
global/basin-scale domains to super-regional (e.g., West Coast of North America, alias
Eastern Pacific), regional (e.g., Oregon and Washington coastal oceans), and subregional (e.g., Monterey Bay and Puget Sound) domains. Due to their mandated
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missions, information requirements, and large resource bases, governmental agencies
will likely have the lead responsibility for operational (sustained, certified, robust,
resilient, etc.) ocean prediction systems, and, due to their adaptability and profitmotivation, the value-added industry will have the lead for customized, applicationsspecific information products. There will also be a first-order management subsystem
to negotiate the tradeoffs in scientific and societal priorities, technological alternatives,
financial resources, etc. of concern to the “users” and “providers”, and to which
ePOPf will offer advice.
The academic and government R&D communities will play their traditional roles as 1)
modeling and analysis subsystem and observing subsystem innovators, 2) process and
diagnostic study analysts, 3) information system evaluators, 4) skilled-workforce
educators, and 5) ocean prediction experimentalists. As never before, the
interdependence of operational activities and R&D efforts will be great because of
their common infrastructural needs and the complexity of ocean prediction systems.
Correspondingly, on the scale of the Eastern Pacific domain, there will be a need for
coordinated numerical and field ocean prediction experiments, including ocean
prediction skill assessment “testbeds”, ocean observing system experiments (ocean
OSEs), and ocean observing system simulation experiments (ocean OSSEs).
Hence, with the contemporary emergence of the NSF’s Ocean Observing Initiative
(OOI), the perceived need to re-align NOAA’s Integrated Ocean Observing System
(IOOS), and the re-vitalized national and international efforts to develop and sustain
global and regional climate information services, it is now time for the ePOPf
community of ocean modelers and observationalists to assume the collective
professional stewardship for the Eastern Pacific ocean prediction systems. The ePOPf
stewardship will seek to ensure that the scientific and technical expertise and research
interests of the Eastern Pacific R&D community are incorporated into the design,
development, operation, skill assessment, utilization, and evolution of the systems.
Thus, ePOPf will be positioned so that it can evaluate the adequacy and performance
of the Eastern Pacific ocean prediction systems, help define technical/methodological
“best practices” for such systems, and then advocate, in a continuing fashion, to the
stakeholders and sponsors for the resources and programs needed to achieve the skill
assessment and system performance metrics arrived at through consensus.
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Motivation. The large-scale oceanic regime of the Eastern Pacific is dominated by the
general circulation of the California Current System (CCS) and the Alaska Current
System (ACS). It is strongly modulated by (1) the weekly weather cycle, seasonal, and
interannual variations of the wind-driven coastal upwelling/downwelling systems
(including undercurrents and coastally-trapped waves); (2) the mesoscale eddy field
(including “squirts & jets”, fronts, coastal upwelling centers at capes, baroclinic Rossby
waves, etc.) formed in the interacting CCS/ACS and coastal and open ocean
upwelling/downwelling systems; and (3) buoyancy-driven flows associated with
riverine and estuarine plumes and non-point source runoff. One of the many
contemporary challenges is to understand the mechanisms controlling hypoxic
conditions in continental shelf waters, which may include biological and chemical
changes in offshore source waters for coastal upwelling, changes in nutrient loads from
runoff, and/or changes in local shelf physical (e.g., stratification and mixing),
ecological (e.g., planktonic species composition), and/or biogeochemical (e.g., nutrient
cycle) processes. Addressing this challenge has implications for managing the depleted
fisheries and other living marine resources of the Eastern Pacific. Consequently, this
and other challenging demands for more and better environmental and ecological
information increase the need for ocean prediction of the Eastern Pacific. {NOTE: the
litany of numerous applications for operational ocean prediction products has been
documented by Ocean.US and will not be repeated here. Instead, the more analytical
and generic aspects that underpin all applications will be emphasized.} These
environmental and ecological information needs are driven by requirements for
scientific diagnostic studies of ocean circulation (flow and water mass fields), marine
ecosystem and fisheries dynamics, and biogeochemical properties and processes
conducted in the super-regional domain. Such diagnostic studies will often need to be
based on re-analyses for the most accurate and consistent results. In turn, these
diagnostic studies are needed for addressing (1) climate and global change assessments
and issues, (2) ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries assessment and management,
and (3) observing system design, etc., as well as fundamental process studies of
regional circulation and ecosystem dynamics in their own right. Global and basin-scale
numerical models with ca. 10 km resolution (thus, without full mesoscale resolution)
have begun to be used for such purposes. However, to achieve higher accuracy and
greater relevance, there is a need to foster the advance of mesoscale-resolving super4
regional (ca. 5,000 km domain scale; ca. 3 km resolution), regional (ca. 500 km domain
scale; ca. 1 km resolution), and sub-regional (ca. 50 km domain scale; ca. 0.3 km
resolution) numerical modeling subsystems, observing subsystems, data assimilation
methodology, and skill assessment of operational and research models.
The IOOS Regional Associations (RAs) off the USA West Coast (viz., SCCOOS,
CeNCOOS, NANOOS, and AOOS) are, or will be, each developing their own
regional ocean prediction systems with a resolution of the order of 1 km, comparable
to the key datasets derived from HF radar, gliders, and satellite observations. This
resolution target is also comparable to that of the future Navy and NOAA operational
products for the coastal ocean, which, thus, is one of the major points of common
interest that can serve as a basis for partnerships between the R&D and operational
communities. The mutual concern of these communities for skill assessment of ocean
predictions is another major point of common interest. Their collective need for initial
and lateral boundary conditions associated with the large-scale circulation of the
Eastern Pacific is yet another major point of common interest.
In summary, the global operational analyses and forecasts of the Navy (and “soon”
NOAA) are rendered on grids with a resolution of the order of 10 km. The modeling
community has shown that the nesting (down-scaling) ratio should generally not be
larger than a factor of three. Furthermore, as is to be expected, not all global
operational analyses handle correctly some of the local features off the West Coast.
Hence, there is an apparent need for a West Coast super-regional scale ocean
prediction (data assimilative and forecasting) system at the intermediate resolution of
about 3 km. This requirement is consistent with the Findings and Recommendations
advanced by the Ocean.US Modeling and Analysis Steering Team (MAST) Workshop
(2008); however, there has been no apparent follow-through to date.
Discussion. A few operational global and basin-scale data-assimilative ocean
circulation models have operated routinely for several years, especially those run by the
U.S. Navy (Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO or NAVO)), and “soon” to
be joined by NOAA (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)). They
are potentially an important and valuable source of initial conditions and open
boundary conditions at a resolution of ca. 10 km for super-regional models. However,
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there is incomplete knowledge of their skill. Importantly, they continue to be
upgraded, making the requisite skill assessment activity a continuing task.
A dozen or more American, Canadian, and Mexican ocean modeling and observational
research groups are distributed along the West Coast, from Baja California to the Gulf
of Alaska. Some of their modeling capabilities have been developed in the context of
major research programs; e.g., ONR-AOSN & ASAP (Monterey Bay), NSF/NOAAGLOBEC, NSF-CoOP, and ONR-NOPP. Others have been developed in the context
of IOOS operational programs; e.g., SCCOOS, CenCOOS, NANOOS, and AOOS,
plus neighboring PaCIOOS. In several instances, marine ecosystem modules have
been one-way coupled to the circulation models. However, the present funding for
these modeling activities is generally marginal (i.e., at a subsistence level), at best.
An OOI R&D real-time network of advanced sensors will soon be deployed for a few
decades in limited-areas of the coastal ocean off Oregon and Washington, which will
present important opportunities for skill assessment, data assimilation, etc. There will
also be opportunities for ePOPf to foster very high-resolution, non-hydrostatic
modeling of super-hot, chemically rich, submarine volcanic plumes. Further, modeling
of flows over deep, complex topographic structures associated with tectonic processes
affecting the seafloor off Oregon and Washington will be of interest for
characterization of the physical attributes of habitats important to benthic ecology.
Also, the IOOS operational real-time networks of more proven sensors are anticipated
to expand their spatial coverage and sensor suites and pursue network densification in
coming years. Existent and near-future satellite remote sensing missions will provide
ever more accurate, higher resolution, and abundant data relevant to ocean prediction.
Hence, the stage is being set, en passant, for increasingly capable ocean prediction,
though no particular form or end-result is explicitly planned at present.
A program is needed to nest (downscale) initial and boundary conditions from global
and basin-scale models to a higher-resolution, super-regional model on a continuing
basis for the prediction of the synoptic state of the Pacific Eastern Boundary Current
regime (i.e., the CCS and ACS) through data-assimilation, and in support of regional
and sub-regional modeling systems.
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A program of community-based “testbeds” is needed for the rigorous, transparent, and
sustained skill assessments that are extremely important for operational centers as well
as researchers. A super-regional program is also needed for organizing, validating, and
verifying forcing fields (e.g., atmospheric forcing, river and line-source runoff, and
tides) and databases (e.g., bottom topography and oceanic climatologies).
Furthermore, the NOAA-IOOS Program Office is in need of a complementary R&D
subprogram, including prediction experiments, and it would benefit from a coherent
strategy for the development of modeling and analysis subsystems. At the same time,
NSF-OOI is providing an observational infrastructure program, with associated cyberinfrastructure but not modeling, analysis, and re-analysis components at present.
Hence, there is a strong need, and possibly an opportunity, for the Eastern Pacific
coastal ocean prediction community (viz., ePOPf) to establish a super-regional domain
partnership to address the above issues. Ideally, ePOPf would be comprised of
representatives from operational entities and R&D program managers, as well as
researchers and developers, modelers and observationalists, and physicists and
ecologists.
Approach. A grassroots, “bottom-up” approach to community stewardship of this
topic area is essential because the “top-down” approach has not yet provided an
adequate path forward. Hence, ePOPf may have the following attributes:
 Function as a self-organizing group of concerned and involved scientists that will
engage the appropriate federal entities, IOOS RAs, and others in establishing
“best practices” for Eastern Pacific ocean prediction systems
 Operate with an open, flexible architecture for connection to other geoscience
(e.g., Earth System Science (ESS)) prediction activities; for example, the Earth
System Modeling Framework (ESMF) or equivalent
 Focus initially on skill assessment in the context of downscaling from the
global/basin scale to the CCS & ACS, including the continental shelf, superregional scale. Provisions will be made for linking, in due course, to estuarine and
riverine circulation modeling systems, and to biogeochemical, ecosystem, fish,
sediment transport, etc. modeling systems. Lagrangian prediction will need
emphasis for many of these scientific and societal applications.
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ePOPf will be led by a Steering Group (SG) comprised of researchers and operational
representatives. An ad hoc Organizing Committee will develop a governance scheme
that will lead to the formation of the SG, a modus operandi, program plan, etc.
Functions of the SG may well include:
 Assess the present and prospective modeling and observing subsystem
capabilities and needs of the CCS & ACS, perhaps supported by a voluntary
modeling and observing subsystem registry
 Foster the development of numerical experiments utilizing observations, etc.
 Cultivate super-regional scale scientific questions to help formulate skill
assessment metrics
 Promote open, on-line access to real-time data streams, archived data sets, etc.
 Coordinate with West Coast modelers, observationalists, and federal entities
 Cultivate community stewardship for ePOPf interests
 Develop synergistic, mutually beneficial partnerships with operational centers
(e.g., for skill assessments, re-analyses, ocean OSEs & OSSEs)
 Arrange periodic Web-based reports about the State of the Eastern Pacific
Ocean based on data-assimilative analyses and re-analyses
 Organize an annual meeting (possibly as a session at annual EPOC Conferences)
to provide transparent accountability for the West Coast scientific community,
etc.
 Advocate with NOAA, Navy, NSF, NASA, NOPP, etc. for ePOPf ocean
prediction R&D funding, observational networks, other supporting
infrastructure, and operational services
 Serve as a “gateway” between the various entities, communities, and individuals
concerned with ocean prediction in the coastal ocean of the Eastern Pacific
regime
 Not serve as a “gatekeeper” for the West Coast ocean modeling community to
access all funding and other resources, though it will coordinate proposals in
support of its yet-to-be-defined program plan. In short, ePOPf should only
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enhance and do no harm to the collaborative-competitive enterprise that exists
for West Coast modeling.
 Short-Term Plan-of-Action. The notion of ePOPf was introduced to EPOC 2009
to seek reactions from a West Coast super-regional community. Funds will be
sought for a short meeting of the small ad hoc Organizing Committee with several
potential federal partners in the near-future to develop plans for the SG, etc.
Acknowledgements. Yi Chao/JPL, Art Miller/SIO, Roger Samelson/OSU, John
Allen/OSU, Ed Zaron/PSU, and David Jay/PSU are thanked for their valuable
comments.
APPENDIX: Issues
 Should reliance be placed on a super-regional (ca. 5,000 km domain at ca. 3km resolution) operational ocean prediction system provided by Navy-NOAA
or should other arrangements be made? Significant resources could be
required. However, questions remain about suitable data assimilation
strategies (e.g., use of weak versus strong constraints) considering the spacetime paucity of observations off the West Coast, which suggests this should
be an area of research and that there may be much to be done to co-evolve
the data-assimilative modeling and observing system designs.
 Will fully coupled ocean-atmosphere models be needed at all or any domain
scales in the early stages of ePOPf? Of particular concern here is that there is
a growing body of empirical analysis that points toward significant two-way
coupling between the upper ocean thermal structure and lower atmosphere
momentum structure in the mesoscale eddy field off the West Coast which
may require use of coupled mesoscale atmosphere-ocean models to properly
treat these effects.
 Will fully coupled physical-biogeochemical models (w/or w/o ecosystem and
fish) be needed at all or any domain scales in the early stages of ePOPf?
Correctly representing the physical fields is a major task unto itself at first
before delving into the complexity of ecological and fisheries models.
Moreover, the ecologists and fisheries scientists have immediate needs for the
basic physical information dynamical models can provide, and which they can
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combine with spatially explicit statistical models of stock assessment, etc.
Consequently, it is important for ePOPf to form links with the ecosystem and
fisheries modelers at an early stage, both for short-term cooperation and longterm planning.
 Is it necessary, desirable, feasible, etc. to link with the Pacific Island modeling
community? That link would allow relating more fully to the basin-scale,
short-term climate variability of the Pacific Basin; e.g., El Nino, La Nina, and
PDO. Yet, it may excessively stretch the bounds of the West Coast
community and add complexity in communications, especially with PacIOOS
covering a domain that probably exceeds the coverage of the combined
domains of SCCOOS, CENCOOS, NANOOS, and AOOS. --- Similar
concerns apply to the Arctic Ocean portion of the AOOS domain. --However, the scientific factors noted here may be adequately handled for
ePOPf interests if the global/basin-scale ocean prediction system employed
accommodates the large-scale, short-term climate dynamics of concern with
sufficient verisimilitude.
 Are Canadian (British Columbia) and Mexican (Baja California) colleagues
interested in participating in ePOPf? If so, at which stage and in what fashion?
Initial contact with DFO Canada has been very positive.
Reference
Ocean.US, The Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Modeling and Analysis Workshop
Report, Ocean.US Pub. No. 18, 2008. {http://www.ocean.us/2008_model_wkshp}
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