Week 2: The Problem of Crime
 To deal effectively with crime we
need good info about:
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What kinds of crimes are happening
How much they are occurring
Who is involved in them
Where & when they are likely to happen
 How do we get this information?
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The “crime data problem”
 How to get empirical crime data?
Different info sources on social events
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B.
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Official records (of criminal cases)
Surveys (of people’s experiences)
Observations (of criminal events)
Other sources (of information about
criminal persons or events)
 Mostly emphasize the first two (for estimating
crime trends and patterns)
A. Official Records of crime cases
1) Police  Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)
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Police records of “crimes reported” and “arrests made”
From statistics reported to the FBI by police depts.
Note Division of UCR into 2 categories:
• Part I: the “Index” Crimes (Crimes known + Arrests)
• Part II: the “other” crimes (all other offenses) (Arrests)
– UCR = “aggregate” (group-level) reports
– Problems  only include recorded crimes
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Selective reporting (to police and by police)
“Hierarchy rule” undercounts
Non-reporting of many crimes (“dark figure”)
– NIBRS = incident-level reports (recent alternative
to traditional UCR)
Official Records (continued)
 Other types of official records?
2)Court records (cases filed & adjudications)
– Juvenile courts
– Administrative/regulatory courts
3)Correctional records (data on outcomes)
– Data on hard-core vs. lesser offenders
 These all represent only “processed” cases
 Beyond Official records = “Semi-official
records” from other agencies (e.g., ERs, fire
depts, social services [DFSC], insurance
companies, stores, security firms)
B. Surveys as 2nd major source of
crime data
• How do surveys differ from records?
– Sample from population
– Questionnaire or interview of
responders
• 2 Kinds of surveys used for crime data
– Victimization Surveys
– Self-Report Surveys
B. Surveys (of potential victims & offenders)
1. “Victimization” or “Victim” surveys
– Survey of population re: victimization
– Official victim survey = NCVS (BJS)
– Unofficial surveys (for special crimes)
2. “Self-report” surveys
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Juvenile delinquency
Victimless crimes (e.g., drugs)
“Ordinary crimes”
Chronic offenders
Comparing sources of crime data:
B. Surveys vs. Official records
• Strengths & weaknesses of records?
– It’s always being collected and it’s official
– Biases & errors?
• Strengths & weaknesses of surveys?
– More detailed info & unrecorded crimes
– Biases & errors?
• Which kind of data is best?
Other Data Sources for Crime?
C. Observations (natural or contrived)
D. Other possibilities
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Life Histories
Case studies & field studies
Historical documents
Media accounts
Personal experiences
According to the available crime data:
What crimes occur & how often?
• Part I crimes & Part II crimes
• Other categories of crimes?
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Violent Crimes (crimes against persons)
Property Crimes
Public Order Crimes (vice; disorder)
Political Crimes
White-Collar Crimes
Organized Crime
Part I (Index) Crimes
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Murder (nonnegligent homicide)
Aggr. Sexual Assault (Forcible Rape)
Robbery
Aggravated Assault (& Battery)
Burglary
Larceny/Theft
Motor Vehicle Theft
Arson
Part I (Index) Crimes
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Part I Crimes known or reported to police:
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About 12% are violent crimes
About 88% are property crimes
Crimes Known vs. Crimes Occurring?
– 47% of violent crimes are reported to police
(54% of serious violence)
– 40% of property crimes are reported to police
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Crimes known vs. arrests made?
– 46% of reported violent crime result in arrest
– 17% of reported property crimes result in arrest
Crimes Reported to Police
Clearances of UCR Crimes
Part II Crimes (all other crimes)?
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Only arrest statistics reported for these
83% of all arrests involve Part II crimes
(17% = Part I arrests)
Largest category = public order crimes
(alcohol + drug-related)
Part 2 includes both violent & property
crimes, as well as public order crimes
Part 2 crimes cover the whole range of
severity (from trivial to lethal acts)
Note: Part 1 and Part 2 do not correspond
simply to “serious” and “minor” crimes
Are crime rates changing?
• Short-term fluctuations = “noise”
• Regular cyclical changes?
– time of day & seasonal variations
• Irregular trends and changes?
– Over the centuries?
– During last century?
– During this century (since 2000)?
• Future trends
UCR Crime Rates 1960-2010
UCR Crime Rates 1960-2010
30-year Trend in UCR Murder Rates: 1990-2010
Trends from 4 Different Data
Sources
Variations in crime by location?
Where are we at greatest risk?
• Regional differences?
• Urban-rural differences?
• Public spaces
• Residential locations
• International patterns?
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Is the US one of the more crime-ridden
countries in the world?
Regional Differences in Crime
Violent Crime
Property Crime
Northeast
357
2,116
South
452
3,439
Midwest
363
2,834
West
401
2,887
Region
Who commit crimes (usually)?
The Usual comparisons:
• Young vs. Older people
• Males vs. females
• Racial Minorities vs. majorities
• Lower vs. middle vs. upper classes
Age Differences in Crime
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The Universal Age Curve of crime
Gender Differences in Crime
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Different percentages/ratios of male-to-female
involvement in crime
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Violence = about 8-to-1 (male/female)
Property = about 3-to-1 (male/female)
Recent changes in female criminality?
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Convergence hypothesis  gender rates getting closer
Note differences between property & violence  almost
all of convergence occurs in a few property crimes
Problem of relying on arrest data  we can’t separate
changes in criminal behavior from changes in police
practices
Racial Patterns in Crime
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Large, persistent Black/White differentials in
arrest rates
Other offenses may show different pattern
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Violent crimes (including domestic violence)
Property Crimes
Substance Abuse
White-Collar crimes
Organized crimes
Other crime data sources may be different
– UCR vs. NCVS vs. Self-report
 The racial picture is more complex if we
look at all the data (not just UCR arrests)
Social Classes Differences in Crime?
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An old idea = hard to document empirically
“Social Class” = difficulty to define precisely
Some offenses show differences by
economic level
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Violent crimes (but less for domestic violence)
Property Crimes (much smaller differences)
Substance Abuse (inconsistent differences)
White-Collar crimes
Differences depend on crime data sources
– Biggest differences in arrest data
– Least difference in self-report data
• Overall, social class differences are arguable
Characteristics of Victims?
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How has highest risk of being a victim of
crime?
Victims have similar profiles to
Offenders
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Young
Male
Minority
Poor