IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
WATER RESOURCES :
ADAPTABILITY APPROACH
R K KHANNA
Former Chief Engineer
(Environment Management)
Central Water Commission
New Delhi
As for me, all I know is that I know nothing
- Socrates
Introduction
•
Whether CC occurs or not ; one believes in it or not, it is at our door-steps.
•
•
Neither get swept off by the on-going shrill blitz, nor close one’s eyes to it.
Urgent need for a cool and reasoned approach to face it
•
Considering its advance, proposed international measures to curb GHG
emissions, and likely impacts, WR Sector to gear up
•
Quickly ascertain size and scope of its effects in near future and by 2050
•
Assessment under three scenarios, viz. BAU, optimistic, and intermediate
to enable calculated actions.
•
As CC is likely to affect WR Sector most, prudence demands that water
professionals plan necessary adaptive measures
A controversial issue
• somewhat controversial issue
• not a new phenomenon ?
• mention of climate change even in Vedas
• Some Jain scriptures in Kaliyuga “ All rivers except
Ganga and Indus will dry up and all bio-div will be lost”.
• some aspects of the IPCC report challenged
• an attempt made here to keep clear of all controversies
and focus on possible impact of climate change on WR
and adaptive measures, including the role of standards
Overview
• Very important in WR
• Its role assumes greater importance in view of the anticipated
impact of climate change on WR
• This presentation  overview of recent events ; and components of
an adaptive strategy from policy framework to planning, designing,
installing, O & M and safety for existing and proposed
utilities/facilities in water sector.
• All water sectors  irrigation, drinking water, domestic, industrial,
hydropower and energy, navigation, recreation ; and water users 
Farmers, Women, Religious & social aspects . are considered
ATMOSPHERE AND GHGS
• huge publicity to the subject
• a gullible layman walking on roads may relate every misfortune in
life to earth’s atmosphere warming up due to choking with GHGs
• Indeed he does not know that the atmosphere continues to comprise
about 78% of Nitrogen, 21% of oxygen, about 0.9% Argon as he
learnt in his school days!
•
Again, he does not know that all GHGs are not unfriendly to
mankind and life itself.
• natural GHGs have made the earth liveable by keeping its surface
temperature at about 14 deg C undoubtedly with the climatic
variability in time and space, instead of probably – 19 deg C in their
absence!
CLIMATE CHANGE (CC) AND IPCC
• Earth’s atmospheric CO2 accumulation built up in last few centuries
due to burning of fossil fuels for meeting energy needs.
•
Around 1800 AD, French Physicist Fourier, in 1896 by Swedish
scientist Arrhenius indicated likelihood of warming of earth
temperature due to such anthropogenic CO2, which grew rapidly
after the Industrial Revolution,
• different from earth’s normal temperature variation which is caused
by fluctuation in solar radiation, tilt of axis, its wobble, volcanic
activity, land/oceans earth area proportion etc.
CLIMATE CHANGE (CC) AND IPCC
(cont)
• Presently, the increase in CO2 content seems to be more than 0.5
percent per year from present level of about 350 ppm.
• Several scientists concluded that such rise beyond say 450 ppm
unless reversed, could cause ‘global warming’.
•
Apparently this ‘term’ being considered a bit aggressive was
modified a few years ago to a more neutral term ‘CC’.
• UNEP and WMO established IPCC in 1988 for compiling available
knowledge on the subject, to enable a global view and development
of a possible agenda to redress damaging effects.
• Currently, Dr. R.K.Pachauri of TERI chairs IPCC ; brought four
action reports.
Fourth action report of IPCC 2007
•
•
•
Water availability
total annual river runoff over the whole land surface is projected to increase,
even though there are regions with significant increase and significant
decrease in runoff. However, increased runoff cannot be fully utilised unless
there is adequate infrastructure to capture and store the extra water.
Floods
heavy precipitation events are projected to become more frequent over
most regions throughout the 21st century. This would affect the risk of flash
flooding and urban flooding.
Droughts
Droughts have become more common, especially in the tropics and subtropics, since the1970s. it is likely that the area affected by drought has
increased since the 1970s, and it is more likely than not that there is a
human contribution to this trend. Decreased land precipitation and
increased temperatures, which enhance evapotranspiration and reduce soil
moisture, are important factors that have contributed to more regions
experiencing droughts.
UNFCCC, MP - APPARENT
SUCCESS, KP – NON-STARTER
•
UN adopted UNFCCC in 1992 at Rio Earth Summit
•
MP- 1995 aimed at phasing out CFCs, considered a cause for ozone hole
•
Global agreement by all countries under MP, resulted in some success
•
China has recently succeeded in CFC phase out. India hopefully will follow.
•
KP -1997 requiring 38 developed countries to cut by 2012, global GHG
emissions by 5% below the 1995 levels, entered into force as late as 2005
with US, Canada and Australia not on board insisting on commitment to
cuts by China/India too.
•
As such cuts would eat back into their overdue economic development
agenda, developing countries insisted rich countries to agree to cuts.
UNFCCC, MP - APP SUCCESS, KP –
NON-STARTER (cont)
• economically developed countries had a major share in emission
level of GHGs.
• But, China & India are included in present top 5 gross emitters of
GHGs, simply because their population being about 35% of the
world.
•
India for example has 17% of population but emits 4% GHGs.
Emissions in tones per capita of the top 5 countries however are :
US 24, Russia 14, Japan 11, China 4, India 2.
• As China/India’s per capita footprint is lower than many developed
countries with lower gross emissions, they argued that responsibility
for cutting emissions should lie with main polluters. Logic tells that
the ‘polluter must pay’ the cost of repair to the present CO2 level.
UNFCCC, MP - APP SUCCESS, KP –
NON-STARTER (cont)
• difficulties for developed countries in implementing massive cuts
• Little progress is however since achieved.
• In December 2007, UN’s 13th COP at Bali (Indonesia) considered
IPCC’s fourth action report and decided (with US on board for the
first time), to prepare for UN by end 2009 at Copenhagen, a KP
successor Road Map for cutting GHG emissions to a maximum upto
2020 and to 50% of 2000 level by 2050.
CC and Sources of CO2,CH4,
N2O
• IPCC’s last two action reports brought out several aspects of CC
• CC  rise in earth temperature, melting of snow-caps, glacier
regression, landslides possibly due to defreezing, sea level rise,
increase in variability of weather parameters, rise in incidence of
extreme events, damage to water cycle, fall in crop productivity,
increase in crop loss, and increase in heat related mortality
• 4th Action Report published in 2007 covering vulnerability, ways
for adaptation, and measures for mitigation.
• Confirmed and quantified earlier findings while exhorting urgency in
cutting – stabilizing – reduction of GHG emissions in stages by
2050, especially in light of evidence of rapidity in their increase due
to increasing energy needs.
CC and Sources of CO2,CH4,
N2O(cont)
• GHG contribution attributed –> about 24% to energy sector, 18% to
deforestation, 14% each to industry, agriculture, and transport
sectors
• Paddy cultivation, agricultural land-use and reservoirs are
considered main sources for CH4 and N2O emissions.
• Scientists however not sure about size of their contribution to
GHGs.
• WR sector for example rejected some years ago, reservoirs as a
source for methane emissions.
• Source of CO2 and other GHGs lies in energy and industry sectors.
• So effort to increase efficiency in energy generation and reduction in
its use is important part of the strategy.
• Cutting fossil fuel consumption in transportation sector equally
important for future.
GCMS, HDR AND UNCERTAINTY
• IPCC categorical about climate change (CC)
• but significant uncertainty about size of impact, particularly on Water
Sector persists due to inbuilt deficiencies in GCMs.
• These models yet not quite adequate to simulate monsoons and
thermo-dynamic laws correctly.
• Impacts of CC on availability, variability, extreme events-from skies
to seas- in planning defensive measures for existing water utilities
in all sectors of water use to be assessed and quantified.
• Similarly- planning of future IWRDM
• climax  2007 with Nobel Peace Prize going to IPCC.
GCMS, HDR AND UNCERTAINTY
(cont)
• On heels of Nobel Peace Prize  UN Human Development Report
(2006) in December 2007
• focusssed on capacity of each country to ‘Fighting Climate Change’
by cutting ‘gross emissions’ based on each nation’s HD Index
(which had been contested by many from the developing world ).
• India was quick in rejecting the hypothesis saying that emissions per
capita has to be the basis and not the gross emissions.
• latter puts a ceiling on their already unmet and fast expanding
energy needs for poverty reduction and picking up faster economic
development.
AVOIDABLE EXAGGERATION, HYPE,
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
• CC soon became a buzz word.
• Usual hype generation in minds of masses started without making
any effort at real assessments.
• Any extreme climatic event CC, though it may be a characteristic
of local variability.
• As if epidemic struck the society
• building public awareness , roping in academicians, politicians and
governments alike to fight this giant ‘wolf’ looming large
• instead of tackling more mundane but neglected duties related to
sanitation, roads, traffic , even water and power
AVOIDABLE EXAGGERATION, HYPE,
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT (cont)
• No doubt, the projected parameters of CC intimately cover ‘water’
related socio-economic uses.
• But without assessments, exaggerated dooms-day views were
projected.
• Some samples About 400 M population in Ganga basin likely to
be affected ; Decimation of 20 to 70% of world species ; Likely doom
for Yangtse, Ganga, Indus, Mekong, Rio-Grande, Murray-Darling ;
Decline in surface and ground-water availability ; Inundation of south
Asian cities including Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Dhaka, Karachi
due to snow-melt ; Floods in Ganga basin ; Devastation of societies.
AVOIDABLE EXAGGERATION, HYPE,
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT (cont)
• All this hype , in spite of distinct possibility of reversal of
CC if concerned nations make honest efforts.
•
indeed necessary to rationally consider different
scenarios of success of reversal strategy that may be
worked out by various conferences/meetings
• But in meanwhile, one must first assess likely impacts for
3 scenarios in WR Sector –Business As Usual (BAU),
the most optimistic, and the most probable, rather than
crying wolf.
ADAPTIVE STRATEGY FOR WR
SECTOR ( VARIOUS SECTORS )
• Water Policy
• Effects of CC, viz. increase in surface temperatures, increase in
climatic extreme events, increase in variability of rainfall, its intensity
and frequency, changes in active and break periods in monsoon,
increased snow and glacier-melt, more floods and droughts,
increase in desertification processes, rise in sea level etc. have to
be examined and quantified.
• necessary to introduce counter-measures for such effects in the
National Water Policy (NWP 2002- and subsequent revisions) &
State Policies including the Action Plans wherever called for.
Water Policy
(cont)
• Alongside, modify where necessary IWRDM plan proposed by the
National Commission in 1999
• Policy change including enhancement of Inter-Basin Water transfer
(IBWT) to use likely increase in water availability.
• WR plans in past have always addressed optimization of output with
sustainability and productivity as corner stones ; process needs to
be modified, improved, strengthened ; measures already identified
need to be implemented in mission mode.
• ASSOCHAM, though not presently connected with policy
formulation, should now associate itself with such activities and try
to expand its horizons.
Co-ordinated Effort
• Policy Research R&D Investigations:
• Set up Standing Water Policy Research Groups in
Centre and States, e.g. in CWC, NIH, CWPRS & State
CDOs/Hydrology cells to undertake these activities
•
WR sector should join Joint Research Programmes
initiated by MoEF, IITM, IMD and related departments on
CC.
• Organisations such as ASSOCHAM can play an
important role
Hydrologic Parameters
• South West/NorthEast monsoon, snowfall due to westerlies
emanating from Mediterranean, and contribution of Bay of Bengal
depressions to runoff from Central Indian Rivers
• These three inter-active climate systems yield India’s WR including
inflows from neighbouring countries.
• What is the degree of inter-dependence? For instance – Is there an
inverse relationship between SW monsoon and snowfall? What is
the contribution of BoB depressions to India’s Hydrology?
Precipitation, snow/glacier melt, rivers and runoff, SW/GW
availability are the parameters to be quantified. What is the
snowmelt contribution to run-off in Himalayan rivers ?
Hydrologic Parameters (cont)
• WR must join multi-disciplinary Joint Research Teams of : user
departments, like – agriculture, health, drinking water, sanitation,
industry, environment, forestry, meteorology, oceans, and energy
• Assess scientifically likely impacts of CC by 2015, 2025, 2050 for
different scenarios, Quantify precipitation (snow and ice) and its
distribution.
• Will CC affect active or gap phases of SW monsoon? How much?
Will they be shorter or longer? Will higher intensity of rainfall affect
hydrology
• Overall, runoff of rivers might marginally increase changing the
dependable runoff. Success rate for meeting project objectives
might improve. But, Probable Maximum Precipitation curves might
need modifications causing a need for review of design floods for
major utilities. Take up such studies and ensure safety of major
structures.
Snow/Glacier Melt & Effect on
Runoff
• Likely change in their occurrence being predicted but
basin-wise assessments of trends initiated by IITM/IMD
need inputs from CWC/NIH/State Hydrology Cells.
• Identify contribution of Nepal/Bhutan/China’s snow/ice
cover at India’s borders separately.
• Initially, these rivers might carry more runoff in summer
months recharging GW increasing availability. If and
when snowcaps shrink, runoff may decrease, reversing
the summer run-off and recharge to GW. Identify these
watershed years. Study how CC affects Himalayan river
basins snowfall and hence sustenance of run-off?
Snow/Glacier Melt & Effect on
Runoff (cont)
• Cell constituted in CWC to assess
contribution of snowmelt and Glaciers to
Himalayan River systems, under Chief
Engineer (Planning & Development).
Storage and Supply System
• Storage, carryover, canals:
• With increase in spatial and temporal variability, more storage in
existing reservoirs needed
• Frame proposals to increase height of some sample dams.
• For new schemes also, plan for more storage space. As a starter,
move from 75%  50% dependability in planning utilization for
irrigation purposes and modify accordingly for Hydro-power and
drinking water
• Undertake Inter Basin Water Transfer (IBWT) through prioritized
links.
• Plan for enhanced yearly availability with more variability but
increased Evapotranspiration (ET).
• Undertake CAT to enhance reservoir life. Provide sediment traps on
tributaries. Introduce sluice spillways in old dams, for flushing
sediment and create larger live storage.
Deltas, Estuaries, River Mouths
• Deltas, estuaries, coastland, salinity ingress, inundation:
• Undertake studies for critical installations/terminal
infrastructure on coastline and near river mouths for
likely inundation and plan for defensive measures
against sea level rise.
• Review distributory network from heads of all deltas for
optimization of water deployment.
• Plan for regulation of GW abstraction to counter
possible salinity ingress.
Accentuation of Disasters
• Desertification, Droughts, Floods:
• Review structural/nonstructural measures for improved management
of these natural disasters
• Design structures for a 150 yr flood instead of 100 yr flood for better
safety
• Prepare an atlas showing Drought Prone Areas ( DPA) /Deserts
treated with WR facilities during the last 50 years. Keeping in mind
the ameliorative effect of WR infrastructure on these natural
disasters, promote stalled structural measures.
• Review rule curves for spillway operation/strategy for filling
reservoirs – for major reservoirs every 3-5 years. Strengthen nonstructural measures such as flood forecasting.
Irrigation
• Better co-ordination with Agriculture Departments:
• Reduce wastage of applied irrigation water.
• Treat drained water and reuse. Save available water from losses.
Increase irrigation efficiency through proven farming techniques,
micro & precision irrigation technologies (sprinkler/drip )
• Water Shed Development (WSD)/Rain Water Harvesting (RWH).
• Modernise Water Management procedures for increasing
productivity. ( more crop per drop )
• WUAs with volumetric supplies only, resulting into Irrigation
Management Transfer (IMT), promote participatory processes.
• Wherever possible go for corporate (rather than co-operative)
farming.
• changes in crop calendar to suit shorter growing season, new croppatterns, irrigation schedules, inter-cropping, integrated farming
systems
Hydropower
• Expedite remaining identified HP projects
• claim carbon credits from on-going and proposed HP stations for
undertaking new stations.
• Build HP stations at all canal outlets and at dam foot where not
undertaken.
• Add hydropower capacity in existing stations where feasible.
• Regulate releases from HP facilities; rejuvenate drying rivers
• Convert existing HP units into Pump Turbines to allow reuse of
waters during the next make-over of old units.
• Identify upper reservoir sites for pumped storages based on existing
reservoirs. Use all falls for adding mini and micro facilities.
• Studies can be taken up by ASSOCHAM, under an R&D
programme, regarding reduced flows in the rivers due to glacier melt
and subsequent impact on hydro power generation.
Drinking, domestic, industrial
use
• Provide more dedicated storages for these uses.
• As more river stretches might dry up, provide
piped water supply to direct river-water users
like rural areas
• Stop river use for washing and bathing. Provide
instead river-side facilities.
• Go for zero-effluent approach for industrial use.
Collect, Treat and Reuse all waste-water.
Provide incentives.
• BIS can formulate standards in these areas
Fishery
• Use all reservoirs for co-operative or
commercial fishery. Use canal lengths for
fishery leasing to en-route villages.
• A BIS standard has already been prepared
regarding fishery which would need
modification.
Navigation
• Review established links for draft
availability. Plan new ones for reduced
draft in summer. Promote navigation in
reservoirs.
Leisure and recreation
• Develop each WR project for installing
appropriate facilities in mission mode. Setup
museums, exhibitions and mobile displays for
publicity of achievements of water sector.
• BIS can formulate standards for eco-friendly
tourism unregulated tourism development
should not lead to environmental degradation –
land and water.
ADAPTIVE STRATEGY FOR WR SECTOR
( VARIOUS USERS )
- Farmers
- Women
- Religious & social aspects
Farmers
• Total annual river runoff over the whole land surface is projected to
increase, even though there are regions with significant increase
and significant decrease in runoff.
• Eighty percent ( 83% ) of water in India is used for irrigation i.e.
irrigated agriculture.
• So farmers are likely to face problems in the regions with significant
decrease in runoff
• One way to meet this situation is to create more storages, that is,
increase water availability
Farmers ( cont )
• Const of storages ( dams ) a huge/gigantic task ; no of constraints
viz technical, financial, environmental and social , even inter-state
• Other way conservation.
• Needs awareness generation in various water user groups viz
farmers, industries, women, domestic users, even domestic helps.
• Even school children need to be trained in this regard as they are
the future water users, may be water managers.
Dedicated to : women
A poem from the Therigatha, spoken by the slave woman
Punnika and translated in The First Buddhist Women
begins: "I am a water carrier. Even in the cold I have
always gone down to the water." Punnika lived 2500
years ago, but her water-carrying descendants are seen
wherever one travels in Asia. Women are the carriers of
water, as well as the caretakers of water; they perform
the most basic tasks. In this sense, women are the
caretakers of life.
Introduction
• Women as Goddesses – Laxmi(Wealth),Saraswati
(Knowledge), Kali( Destroyer of evil)
• Water as God (Jal or Varun)
• Woman- mother of mankind
• Water- harbinger of prosperity
• Women- a living being
• Water – a life giver
• Women-custodians of environment (i/c water)
Role of women in water sector : Global
• Role of women universally recognised
• International Conference on Water & Env
(Dublin-Jan 92) – one of four principles:
- Women play a central part in provision,
management, safeguarding of water
• Agenda 21 (Rio Conf - June 92) : Enhancement
of role of women in WR planning & mgt ( to
achieve integrated WR dev & mgt )
Other international conf
• UN International Conference on
Population and Development (Cairo,
1994),
• Fourth World Conference on Women
(Beijing, China) – 1995
• International Conference on Freshwater
held in Bonn, Germany (December 2001)
• Johannesburg Summit (28 August-04
September 2002
Role of women in water sector : India
• Crucial role ; water mainly women’s business
• Half of agr labour force provided by women
• 30 % poor households (rural) – headed by
women
• Workload influenced by water availability ( irr or
domestic) – increased by dev of irr agr ;
increased by non-availability of domestic w/s
• Women’s rep in WUAs , NGOs important
• Irr or w/s projects : soc-eco surveys should
cover women’s needs
Women ( cont )
• As mentioned earlier, eighty percent ( 83% ) of water in
India is used for irrigation i.e. irrigated agriculture in
which women play a major role.
• Like farmers, women are also likely to face problems in
the regions with significant decrease in runoff.
• The adaptability approach to meet this situation is to
create more storages, that is, increase water availability
and, also, water conservation by various water user
groups.
Religious and social aspects
• In stream uses of water, specific to India religious
mass bathing ( for instance, Kumbh mela at Prayagraj in
Allahabad )
• Regular bathing and washing also need adequate flow to
be maintained to contain river pollution
• This needs, on one hand, construction of new storages
and, on other hand, proper operation of upstream
reservoirs to maintain adequate flows at the
appropriate/required places.
NWM UNDER NATIONAL ACTION PLAN
ON CLIMATE CHANGE
• National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) describes the
features of National Water Mission as under:
• A National Water Mission will be mounted to ensure IWRM helping
to conserve water, minimize wastage and ensure more equitable
distribution both across and within states.
• Mission will take into account provisions of NWP and develop a
framework to optimize water use by increasing water use efficiency
by 20% through regulatory mechanisms with differential entitlements
and pricing.
• Mission will seek to develop new regulatory structures, combined
with appropriate entitlements and pricing.
• This comprehensive mission document of “National Water Mission”
identifies the strategies and methodologies in respect of:
Assessment of Impact of Climate Change; Changes in Policy,
Practices and Institutional Framework; Measures for Mitigation; as
well as Measures for Adaptations.
EPILOGUE
• Demand for water growing rapidly rise in
population, industrialization, urbanization and
change in lifestyles.
• Concern earlier for water quantity only, now
equal concern for water quality.
• Growing concern about the impact of CC on WR
has thrown a new challenge.
• Urgent adaptive measures are required to meet
all eventualities.
Let us work for improving & maintaining
health of our rivers
THANKS