Presented by Nan Liang Tianbai Wang Qi He May 1, 2012 Agenda Intro Related Stock Market Macro Review Business Review Comps Financial Analysis DCF Intro Business Description Gentex Corporation designs, develops, manufactures and markets proprietary electro-optic products, including automatic-dimming rearview mirrors for the automotive industry and fire protection products mainly for the commercial building industry. Sector: Consumer Goods Industry: Auto Parts & Equipment GICS Map: 251010 Revenue in 2011: 1.02Billion Resource: GNTX 10-K Products Resource: GNTX Official Website Global Business Distribution Resource: GNTX Official Website Intro Financial Description 52 Week Range: $20.69 - $32.21 PEG: 0.95 Trailing P/E: 18.78 Forward P/E: 15.26 Implied 1 Year Growth Rate: 23% 5-7 Growth Rate: 5.14% Market Cap: 3.15 B Beta: 1.51 Resource: Yahoo Finance Related Stock Market Resource: Yahoo Finance Industry Global Automobile Auto Parts Manufacturing Mirror Manufacturing Global Automobile Manufacturing & Auto Parts Manufacturing Global Auto Vehicle Sales Global Auto Parts Manufacturing Resource: IBIS World Business Locations Resource: IBIS World Automakers Resource: IBIS World Industry Opportunity Economic Indicator – Consumer sentiment index Demand Growth Government Intervention Regulation & Tech Innovation Cheaper Currency & Competitiveness Opportunity 1 – Better Economy When households are optimistic about their financial future and the economy, they are more likely to spend money on big-ticket items. Purchasing a new vehicle requires a significant outlay, which is often financed through loans. In times of economic downturns, households are less willing to spend money on expensive items, for fear of losing their jobs and being unable to meet repayments. Consumer sentiment has been fairly low around the globe in 2009 due to the global financial crisis. Resource: IBIS World Opportunity 2 – Demand Growth Developed Economies • Mature industry with limited growth potential as the market is saturated • Aging population & Replacement of existing vehicles Emerging Economies • Rising wealth, standards of living and access to proper road infrastructure • Population (esp. young adults) growth Opportunity 3- Government Incentives During Recession Vehicle Scrappage Programs (Cash Rebates) Cash for Clunkers Incentive Program Tax Rebates to Business Cash Rebates to Replace Old Vehicles Credit Markets & Tax Cut Governments created incentives to drive up car sales and keep jobs safe. Though interventions not be enough to keep global revenue positive. Opportunity 4 – Regulation & Innovation February 2008: KTSA signed into law, requiring all new vehicles in the U.S. to increase the field of view while backing up 2008 – 2009: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) initiated rulemaking process December 7, 2010: NHTSA published initial rule, requiring the use of backup cameras and related displays Market Risks Economic Activity Volatility Fuel & Steel Costs Pricing Pressures from Automotive Manufacturers Auto Parts ESTIMATED AUTOMATIC-DIMMING MIRROR GLOBAL MARKET SHARE Resource: GNTX Presentation Auto-Dimming Rearview Mirrors Market GNTX: Leading producer and the dominant supplier to the automotive industry: 88% market share worldwide in 2011, 85% in 2010. U.S. manufacturer Magna: hybrid or solid polymer matrix versions of electro chromic mirrors. 2 Japanese manufacturers: supply a few vehicle models in Japan with solid-state electro chromic mirrors. Some small Chinese domestic mirror suppliers: selling auto-dimming rearview mirrors, in low volume, within the domestic China automotive market but not currently meet global automotive grade specifications. Resource: GNTX 10-K Product Lines Found In 1974 Manufacturer Of These i.e. Boeing 787 Fire Protection Products Dimmable Aircraft Windows AutoDimming Rearview Mirrors 98% Of Total Sales Source: Gentex’s Website Auto-dimming Mirrors Glare Source: Investor Presentation Smart Beams ® Source: Investor Presentation Rear Camera Display (RCD) Mirror Source: Investor Presentation Revenue Growth Source: Annual Reports Main Clients Source: Annual Reports Region Source: Annual Reports Global Market Share (2011) Main Competitor Magna Mirrors Source: Annual Reports Competitor: Magna Mirrors + Owned by Magna International, Inc. (NYSE: MGA) + MGA also produces lots of auto parts for cars: Body, Seating, Roof, and hybrid energy system, etc. It’s Gentex’s Main Competitor. But Comparable or Not? Multiples Mkt. Cap EPS P/E EV/EBITDA GNTX 3.21B 1.17 19.12 9.77 MGA 10.21B 4.20 10.44 4.54 DLPH 10.16B 3.61 8.57 4.89 LEA 4.22B 5.08 8.27 3.13 BWA 9.17B 4.73 16.90 8.97 Target Price: $7 - $20 Gentex Current Price: $22 Source: Bloomberg & Yahoo!Finance Financial Analysis Capital Structure 0 Debt Quick Ratio Quick Ratio 10.50 9.50 8.50 7.50 6.50 5.50 4.50 3.50 2.50 Cash Ratio Current Ratio 2007 4.65 7.73 2008 5.95 9.24 2009 5.73 8.62 2010 4.83 9.09 2011 3.56 7.47 Data Source : 10-K DuPont Analysis 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% FY 2011 FY 2010 FY 2009 FY 2008 FY 2007 Tax Burden 67.4% 67.7% 67.1% 67.3% 67.9% Operating Margin 22.6% 23.4% 17.4% 17.4% 21.7% Asset Turnover 0.94 0.89 0.69 0.75 0.78 Leverage Ratio 1.13 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.12 ROA 21.2% 20.9% 11.9% 13.1% 16.8% 5 Year Average Adj ROE 14.0% 13.4% 12.8% 14.0% 15.2% Data Source : 10-K Profit Margin 20.00% 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TERMINA L YEAR Profit Margin 18.68% 9.95% 11.87% 16.87% 16.08% 15.66% 15.61% 14.76% 14.87% 14.67% 13.65% Data Source : 10-K Recommendation Current Price: $22.05 DCF: $27.2 - $35.5 Multiple: $7- $20 Buy 200 shares at market price, about 1.5% of the portfolio