The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and Energy Use Ideas for a Roadmap for Biomass Technologies Staur Gjestegård, Stange, Norge August 2004 On the way to our roadmap • Today’s realities • Tomorrow’s needs • Our role Billions World Population Growth 1750-2100 10 8 6 4 Developing Countries 2 Industrial Countries 1750 1800 Source: Population Reference Bureau 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil Have Oil Saudi Arabia Iraq Kuwait Iran UAE Venezuela Russia Libya Mexico China Nigeria U.S. 26% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% Use Oil U.S. Japan China Germany Canada 4% Russia Brazil S. Korea 3% France India Mexico Italy 26% 7% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest consuming nations combined. Updated March 2003. Source: International Energy Annual 2001 (EIA), Tables 11.4 and 11.10. Changes in Atmospheric Concentration 1750 340 320 300 280 260 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1250 1000 750 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 310 290 2000 270 250 Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Atmospheric concentration N2O (pbb) 360 Atmospheric concentration CO2 (ppm) 1500 Atmospheric concentration CH4 (ppb) CO2, CH4, and N20 – A Thousand Year History The nature of value, and the value of nature Vision - macro Vision - nano Implications of the Genomic Revolution •The Molecular Economy •Carbohydrate •Lipid •Protein •Biopolymers Harvesting for the carbohydrate economy Starting points for our roadmap • Our meeting last year and again today – The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and Energy Use: How New Technologies, Including Biotechnology, Can Provide Sustainable Solutions • University of Minnesota Initiative in Renewable Energy & Environment Initiative for Renewable Energy and the Environment MISSION: To promote statewide economic development, sustainable, healthy, and diverse ecosystems, and national energy security through development of bio-based and other renewable resources and processes. www.iree.umn.edu Opportunities • Use renewable resources for CO2-neutral production of energy and materials. • Move closer to real-time use of photosynthesis. Goals and objectives • • • • Leadership in research and demonstration. Create jobs. Promote the hydrogen economy. Use renewables to replace fossil fuels for – energy – chemicals – materials • Foster communication and collaboration. IREE core values • Leveraging resources • Partnerships • Impact University of Minnesota Initiative for Renewable Energy and the Environment External Adv. Board Executive Committee Director/Assoc. Director Working Group Cluster Leader Council Hydrogen Bioenergy and Bioproducts Policy, Economics, and Ecosystems Conservation and Efficient Energy Systems Starting points for our roadmap • Our meeting last year and again today – The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and Energy Use: How New Technologies, Including Biotechnology, Can Provide Sustainable Solutions • University of Minnesota Initiative in Renewable Energy & Environment • Roadmap for Biomass Technologies in the United States, December 2002 – www.nrel.gov Roadmap for Biomass Technologies in the US: Vision • Biopower – Double each decade through 2030 • Biobased Transportation Fuels – 0.5% (now); 4% (2010); 10% (2020); 20% (2030) • Biobased Products – 5% (now); 12% (2010); 18% (2020); 25% (2030) Research, Development & Policy Needs to Achieve Goals • Feedstock production – Biotechnology, genetics and plant physiology – Agronomic practices – Feedstock handling Research, Development & Policy Needs to Achieve Goals • Processing and conversion – – – – Biorefinery concept Thermochemical conversion Bioconversion Enabling technologies Research, Development & Policy Needs to Achieve Goals • Product uses and distribution – Biorefinery development and demonstration projects Research, Development & Policy Needs to Achieve Goals • Public policy measures – – – – – – Incentives Education Resource supply Environmental measures Standards and codes Financial assistance Starting points for our roadmap • Our meeting last year and again today – The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and Energy Use: How New Technologies, Including Biotechnology, Can Provide Sustainable Solutions • University of Minnesota Initiative in Renewable Energy & Environment (www.iree.umn.edu) • Roadmap for Biomass Technologies in the United States, December 2002 (www.nrel.gov) • Multifunctional Agriculture - the case of Norway • Norwegian Forests - Policy and Resources Outcomes for our partnership • By tomorrow – Vision – Roadmap – Mechanisms for success • By next year • Five years from now