Components of the Perfect Storm Global Demographics and the Impact on the United States Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa September 27, 2007 This Presentation was Drawn from Major Works in the Field Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape. Washington DC: Central Intelligence Agency, July 2001. World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Highlights. New York: United Nations, 2007. E. Weiner and A Brown. Future Think: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change. New York: Prentice Hall, Inc., 2005. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa By 2020…What will be the World’s Population Distribution? The world’s population will be more than 7.8 billion people in 2020. Of 100 people, how many will be: ___ from Asia (including 19 Chinese and 17 Indians)? ___ from the Northern Hemisphere including the US? ___ from Africa (including 13 from Sub-Saharan Africa)? ___ from the Middle East? ___ from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union? ___ from Western Europe? Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa By 2020 the World’s Population Will be More than 7.8 Billion People Of 100 people, this is projected to be the mix: 56 from Asia (including 19 Chinese and 17 Indians) 13 from the Northern Hemisphere including the US 16 from Africa (including 13 from Sub-Saharan Africa) 3 from the Middle East 7 from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union 5 from Western Europe Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Key Findings from the Global Trends Indicate a Reshaping of the Global Landscape…Some Highlights Demographic trends will reshape the global landscape. The population of Europe and Russia will shrink dramatically, from 22% in 1950, to 13% in 2000, to 7.5% in 2050. Only the US and Russia will remain on the list of the top 10 most populous nations from 1950. Of the 1.5 billion people that the world population will gain by 2020, most will be added to states in Asia and Africa. Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Key Findings from the Global Trends Indicate a Reshaping of the Global Landscape…Some Highlights, continued: By 2015, for the first time in history, a majority of the world’s population will live in cities. By 2050, the global 65+ age cohort will triple in size to about 1.5 billion, or 16% of the total population. Despite the overall trend toward aging, many developing nations will experience substantial youth bulges: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Global migration may lend some stabilization to both sending and receiving countries. Environmental issues will disrupt population projections in ways not readily apparent. Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa A Snapshot of the Global Demographic Trends Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Key Global Demographic Trends Are Attributed to Multiple Causes Population Growth Aging of the Population Differences in fertility rates Difference in life expectancy Migration Urbanization Youth Bulge Environmental Factors Health Natural Disasters and Conflicts Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Take a Closer Look at Four Global Firsts Population Growth Aging of the Population Differences in fertility rates Difference in life expectancy Migration Urbanization Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Global First #1: Population Growth Tops 9 Billion Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Global Population Growth is Driven By Developing Countries 8.7 B World Population 1950-2050. 6.1 B 2.5 B Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Changes in Population Over Time Reveal Developed Countries are Becoming Smaller Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa 10 Largest Countries in the World in 2007 and 2050 Projections 2007 2050 Population (millions) China India United States Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Bangladesh Nigeria Russia Japan 1,318 1,132 302 232 189 169 149 144 142 128 Population (millions) India China United States Indonesia Pakistan Nigeria Brazil Bangladesh Dem. Rep. of Congo Philippines Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2007 World Population Data Sheets (2007). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa 1,747 1,437 420 297 295 282 260 231 187 150 Global First #2: Prolonged Aging of the Population • Longer life span • Lower fertility Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Global Aging - 2000, 2020 and 2050 Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Population Aging Is Occurring Worldwide Source: C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet, and United Nations Population Division. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Global Aging Most Significant in Developed Countries Source: C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet, and United Nations Population Division. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Dramatic Change in Median Age in Many Individual Countries, Creates Historic Challenges Median Age (Years) 60 2000 2025 2050 50 40 30 20 10 0 th u So a ric f A d In ia M ex o ic a e a na SA rali nc ad hi U a t n C s a Fr C Au e op r u K U E y n an pa a m J er G a R si us Source: Confederation of Indian Industry, “Snapshot: Global Demographics.“ Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Ita ly in a Sp Median Age Increasing in Developed Countries Years 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 World United States Japan Russian Federation Africa 22.1 23 24.5 26.7 29.2 31.5 34 36.3 38.1 28.2 30.1 32.8 35.3 36.5 37.5 39.1 40.3 41.1 29 32.6 37.4 41.3 44.6 48.5 52.1 54.3 54.9 30.6 31.3 33.2 36.5 37.9 40 43.8 46.1 45.3 17.6 17.5 17.5 18.4 19.6 21.1 23.1 25.5 28 Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Countries with the Longest Life Expectancies are in Developed Countries, and Shortest Life Expectancies are in Developing Countries Longest Shortest Years Japan Australia France Iceland Italy Sweden Switzerland Austria Canada Israel Malta Netherlands New Zealand Norway Singapore Spain 82 81 81 81 81 81 81 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 Years Swaziland Botswana Lesotho Zimbabwe Zambia Malawi Angola Afghanistan Central African Republic Mozambique Source: World Population Highlights, Key Findings from PRB’s 2007 Population Data Sheet, Population Bulletin, 62:3. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa 33 34 36 37 38 40 41 42 43 43 Life Expectancy Has Increased Most in Less Developed Countries Since 1950 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (2007); and C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Fertility Rates Have Fallen in Every Major World Region, but Are Still Highest in Sub-Saharan Africa Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (2007); and C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Total Fertility Rates for Selected Countries are the Lowest in Developed Countries Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Old Age Dependency Ratio Selected Countries, 2000, 2025, and 2050 Indicate Greater Dependency in Developed Countries Old Age Dependency Ratio 80 2000 2025 2050 60 40 20 0 h ut So a ric f A a di In o ic M ex a e a na SA rali nc ad hi U a t n C s a Fr C Au K U y n e ia an pa op ss r a u m J R Eu er G Source: Confederation of Indian Industry, “Snapshot: Global Demographics.“ Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Ita ly n ai p S Aging Population and Decline in Fertility Rates will Tighten Labor Markets in Developed Countries Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Global First #3: Migration is Unstoppable… Stay and Starve Forces People to Move Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Average Annual Net Number of International Migrants Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Highlights. New York: United Nations. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Average Annual Net Number of International Migrants Net number of migrants 3,000,000 1950-60 2000-10 2,000,000 1960-70 2010-20 1970-80 2020-30 1980-90 2030-40 1990-2000 2040-50 1,000,000 0 -1,000,000 -2,000,000 -3,000,000 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30 2030-40 2040-50 More dev eloped regions Less dev eloped regions Af rica Asia Europe Latin America & Caribbean Northern America Oceania -3,000 556,000 1,088,000 1,530,000 2,493,000 2,902,000 2,268,000 2,269,000 2,272,000 2,272,000 3,000 -556,000 -1,088,000 -1,530,000 -2,493,000 -2,902,000 -2,268,000 -2,269,000 -2,272,000 -2,272,000 -125,000 -242,000 -289,000 -267,000 -310,000 -416,000 -377,000 -395,000 -393,000 -393,000 194,000 -22,000 -377,000 -451,000 -1,340,000 -1,311,000 -1,210,000 -1,221,000 -1,222,000 -1,222,000 -489,000 -31,000 288,000 441,000 1,051,000 1,271,000 799,000 805,000 808,000 808,000 -68,000 -293,000 -415,000 -781,000 -775,000 -1,108,000 -616,000 -590,000 -595,000 -595,000 403,000 479,000 748,000 972,000 1,277,000 1,453,000 1,305,000 1,300,000 1,300,000 1,300,000 85,000 109,000 44,000 86,000 96,000 111,000 99,000 101,000 102,000 102,000 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision Highlights. New York: United Nations. Prepared by the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Migrants to the Developed World Immigrants as a Share of Annual Population Growth in Developed Countries Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Natural Increase Still Accounts for Almost 60% of Population Growth in the US, but the Share from International Migration Has Been Increasing Percent of U.S. population growth due to natural increase and net migration, 1980-2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005 Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Natural Increase Still Accounts for Almost 60% of Population Growth in the U.S., but the Share from International Migration Has Been Increasing Percent of U.S. population growth due to natural increase and net migration, 1980-2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1980, 1990, 2000 Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Countries Whose Population are Expected to Decline Between 2000 and 2050…Due to Low Fertility Rates and Poor Immigration Response Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Migrants Needed to Keep Aging Dependency Ratios from Rising Above 1995 Levels (1998-1999 Estimates) Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Migration is a Partial Solution to Other Demographic Challenges The labor force in the developing world is expected to double from 1.7 billion in 1998 to 3.1 billion by 2025 The European Union will need 1.7 million high-tech workers by 2003, many coming outside of the EU The US expects labor shortages to leave 890,000 high tech jobs unfilled of 1.6 million and increases to continue for several years Migrants who choose to remain in host countries with aging population will help to boost government revenues Migrants will help relieve the social and political pressures associated with large populations of unemployed and restless youth in their home countries Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001, pg 43). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Y-migration Will Impact the United States’ Need for High-Tech Workforce The generation of United States population born from between 1978 and 1995 will leave the country to seek opportunities for affordable, quality life. GenY is the same size as the Baby Boomer population. GenY will have enormous debt upon graduation from college ($40 to $70K in private, $20K public schools) Demand for qualified workers will be expanding in Europe (Germany, France, and Italy) to stay at 1995 employee replacement levels There are currently 1.3M more jobs in information technology in Europe then qualified workers The middle class is shrinking in the US and growing internationally Source: E. Weiner and A Brown. Future Think: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change. New York: Prentice Hall, Inc., 2005 Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa The US Ranking in the Global Competitiveness Index has Dropped From #1 in 2005 to #6 in 2007 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Country Economy Score Switzerland 5.81 Finland 5.76 Sweden 5.74 Denmark 5.70 Singapore 5.63 United States 5.61 Japan 5.60 Germany 5.58 Netherlands 5.56 United Kingdom 5.54 Source: Global Competitiveness Index, World Economic Forum, 2007 Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Global First #4: Urbanization… Nearly Two-Thirds of the World’s Population Will Live in Cities Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Urbanization Has Grown Dramatically Since the 1970s Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision (2006). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa By 2030, Nearly Two-Thirds of the World’s Population Will Live in Urban Areas Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision (2006); and C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Mega Cities with Populations Greater than 8 Million are Expected to Double in Size by 2015 Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Potential for Global Urban Crisis Grows because Growth Outpaces Ability of the Cities to Cope with Growth…Who Will Pay the Price? Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Other Driving Forces… Youth Bulge Impacts the Stability of Developing Countries Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Youth Bulge Most Prevalent in the Developing Countries Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Sub-Saharan Africa will Have the Greatest Youth Bulges Through 2020; Youth Bulges May Contribute to Political Instability Source: US Bureau of Census, International Database, (2007). Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Other Driving Forces… Environmental Factors Will Pose Threats to Health and Safety Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Environmental Issues Disrupt Population Projections in Ways Not Readily Apparent Water pollution Soil degradation and flooding Air pollution and acid rain Deforestation Urban sprawl and decreased preserved lands Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa The World Is Closer to Meeting the Clean-Water Access Target Than the Sanitation Target Percent of Population with Access to Improved Water and Sanitation, 1990-2002, and 2015 MDG targets Source: UNICEF and WHO, “Country, Regional, and Global Estimates on Water and Sanitation” (2004). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa A Large Gap Exists Between Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Developed and Developing Regions Source: C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Other Driving Forces… Health Disparities Increase in Developing Countries Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Infectious Diseases Continue to be Leading Causes of Death Globally Tuberculosis Malaria Hepatitis HIV/AIDS Cholera Diptheria Dysentery Heart Disease Cancer Diabetes Tuberculosis HIV/AIDS Hepatitis B and C Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Long Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape, (July 2001). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa In Low-Income and Middle-Income Countries, 30 Percent of All Children Are Underweight Source: C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Developing Countries with the Highest and Lowest Shares of Children Under Age 5 who are Underweight Highest Lowest Percent Afghanistan India (under age 3) Yemen Niger Bangladesh East Timor Burundi Nepal Sudan Madagascar 46 46 46 44 43 41 39 39 38 37 Percent Grenada Chile Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Kuwait Samoa Georgia Jamaica Mexico Palestinian Territory Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2007 World Population Data Sheets (2007). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa <1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 Percent Overweight and Obese in School Age Children Source:: United Nations Standing Committee on Nutrition (SCN), “Overweight and Obesity,” SCN News29 (Late 2004-Early 2005). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Long a Problem in Industrialized Countries, Obesity Is Becoming a Problem in the Developing World Source: World Health Organization, WHO Global InfoBase Online, Country Comparable Data (http://infobase.who.int, accessed June 15, 2007). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Iron-Deficiency Anemia Remains a Problem in Many Parts of the Developing World Source: ORC Macro, MEASURE DHS STATcompiler (www.measuredhs.com, accessed June 15, 2007). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa HIV/AIDS is More Common in Less Developed Regions Percent of population ages 15–49 with HIV/AIDS, 2005-2006 WORLD 0.9 More developed regions 0.5 Less developed regions 1.1 Africa 4.5 North America 0.6 Latin America/Caribbean 0.5 Europe 0.5 Oceania 0.4 Asia 0.2 Source: C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa HIV Prevalence Is Highest in Southern Africa Source: C. Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Other Driving Forces… Disasters and Conflicts are Likely to Cause More Loss of Life and Economic Disruption Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Natural Disaster and Conflicts Present a Strain on Global Stability Disasters More prevalent in the Asian-Pacific Region Earthquakes and flooding Hurricanes and tornadoes Nuclear contamination Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Conflicts Rogue states Civil wars and peacekeeping efforts Immigration and intolerance Terrorism Impact of Global Demographic Trends on the United States…Just a Few to Keep in Mind The U.S. will likely… Experience all of the “Global Firsts” and their challenges …more detailed in U.S. presentation See traditional allies face unprecedented crisis and distraction related to aging (aging could severely reduce Japan’s economic power) Be lonelier in facing global hotspots without older Europe Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Impact of Global Demographic Trends on United States…Just a Few to Keep in Mind, continued… The U.S. will likely… Take more responsibility for meeting humanitarian needs which will likely increase with greater urbanization and greater populations in developing countries Face greater uncertainty with key rivals Russia, China facing critical demographic challenges Confront growing need to invest in education of global workforce, just for security reasons Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa References…Demographics Carl Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2007). Mary M. Kent and Carl Haub, “Global Demographic Divide,” Population Bulletin 60, no. 4 (2005). Mary M. Kent and Sandra Yin, “Controlling Infectious Diseases,” Population Bulletin 61, no. 2 (2006). Joseph A. McFalls Jr., “Population: A Lively Introduction,” Population Bulletin 62, no. 1 (2007). United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2007). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa References…AIDS Lori S. Ashford, How HIV and AIDS Affect Populations (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2006). Carl Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2007). Carl Haub, “Improving Data Collection Efforts to Estimate HIV/AIDS,” accessed online at www.prb.org, on June 20, 2007. Peter R. Lamptey, Jami L. Johnson, and Marya Khan, “The Global Challenge of HIV and AIDS,” Population Bulletin 61, no. 1 (2006). UNAIDS, AIDS Epidemic Update: December 2006, accessed online at www.unaids.org, on June 28, 2007. United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2007). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa References…Migration Carl Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2007). Farzaneh Roudi-Fahimi and Mary M. Kent, “Challenges and Opportunities—The Population of the Middle East and North Africa,” Population Bulletin 62, no. 2 (2007). Mary M. Kent and Carl Haub, “Global Demographic Divide,” Population Bulletin 60, no. 4 (2006). Philip Martin and Elizabeth Midgley, “Immigration: Shaping and Reshaping America,” Population Bulletin 61, no. 4 (2006). Philip Martin and Elizabeth Midgley, “International Migration,” Population Bulletin (forthcoming). Dilip Ratha and William Shaw, “South-South Migration and Remittances,” accessed online at www.worldbank.org, on July 2, 2007. UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 2006 Global Trends (Geneva: UNHCR, 2007). Sandra Yin, “The Plight of Internally Displaced Persons,” accessed online at www.prb.org, on July 2, 2007. Nancy V. Yinger, “Feminization of Migration,” accessed online at www.prb.org, on July 2, 2007. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa References…Urbanization Carl Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2007). George Martine, The State of World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth (New York: United Nations, 2007). Office of the Registrar General, India; “Census of India 2001: Table S00-017: Distribution of Households by Availability of Bathroom, Type of Latrine Within the House and Type of Drainage Connectivity for Waste Water Outlet,” accessed online at www.censusindia.net, on July 6, 2007. Barbara Boyle Torrey, “Urbanization: An Environmental Force to Be Reckoned With,” accessed online at www.prb.org, on June 26, 2007. United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2006). United Nations, 2003 Demographic Yearbook (New York: United Nations, 2006). Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa References…Environment Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, State of the World's Forests 2007, accessed online at www.fao.org, on July 9, 2007. Carl Haub, 2007 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2007). Michael D. Jennings, Gross Amount of Habitat Lost by Country (Moscow, Idaho: The Nature Conservancy, 2007). United Nations Environment Programme, GEO-2000 Global Environmental Outlook, accessed online at www.unep.org, on July 9, 2007. World Resources Institute, CO2 Emissions per Capita, accessed online at http://earthtrends.wri.org, on July 9, 2007. Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa Global Profile 2007 …is available on our website: www.csctulsa.org Prepared for the Tulsa Area United Way Community Investments Process By the Community Service Council of Greater Tulsa January, 2007