The Human Population:
Patterns, Processes, and Problematics
Lecture #2
Paul Sutton
psutton@du.edu
Department of Geography
University of Denver
How many Humans have ever lived?
In 1980 William Matthews claimed that there were more
people alive on the planet than had lived and died on
it. Could this be true? (In short… NO)
Nathan Keyfitz did the most systematic study. His
conclusion: 60 billion have been born. Today’s 6
billion represent about 10% of all humans born ever.
How does one calculate this? Estimates of fertility,
longevity, infant mortality, and their changes through
time are necessary.
It is interesting to note that we represent a much higher
fraction of adults that have lived on the planet.
Redistribution of Population through migration
Historically humans have typically migrated from
growing, densely populated areas to vacant or
less densely populated areas.
Example: The European Expansion
Today, Economic opportunities are a major
driving force of human migration.
Examples: Mexican migration to United States
and Rural to Urban migration globally
Mapping some major global migrations
The European Migration (1500-1950)
Although the continent was already crowded, the death rate began
To drop and the population began to expand rapidly. Simultaneous
Urbanization, new occupations, financial panics, and unrestrained
Competition gave rise to status instability on a scale never known
Before. Many a bruised or disappointed European was ready to
Seek his fortune abroad, particularly since the new lands, tamed by
The Pioneers, no longer seemed wild and remote but rather like
Paradises where one could own land and start a new life. The
Invention of the steam ship (the first one crossed the Atlantic in
1827) Made the decision less irrevocable. [Kingsley Davis]
Population Proportions before and
after the European Expansion
1400 - 18% of world pop European (90% of them in Europe)
1930’s – Peak of Euro Domination. 35 % of World European
2000 - People of European ancestry are 16% of World pop
By 2050 – People of European ancestry will only be 11%
Pre WWII: Developed countries had growing populations and
out-migration
After WWII: Developing countries had growing populations
and out-migration
“Population growth used to be a reward for doing well; now it’s a
scourge for doing badly” [Judith Blake]
The Urban Revolution
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For most of human history people lived rural areas
In 1800 1% of world urban, 10% of England urban
Trade and Industrialization caused urbanization
Rome’s population of 650,000 in 100 a.d. unusual
Today the world is just about 50 % urban
The United States is about 75% urban
Some countries like Venezuela are 90% urban
The world is still urbanizing and is expected to settle
at about 75% urban eventually
Geographic Distribution of World Population
The world’s 10 most populous nations constitute 59% of the
world’s population and 37% of the world’s land area.
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China
India
United States
Indonesia
Brazil
Russia
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Japan
Nigeria
1.3 Billion
1.1 Billion
281 million (note book’s estimate of 275)
219 million
174 million
Note: there are more
146 million
people in China than
141 million
in the U.S., Indonesia,
132 million
Brazil, Russia, Pakistan
126 million
Bangladesh, Japan, and
117 million
Nigeria combined.
China (and India to some extent) are the major demographic drivers on the
planet. This is one of the reasons why you hear so much about China
joining the WTO and Sino-US relations
Three ways of Mapping the Global Population
1) A Nighttime Satellite Image
2) A Cartogram where Area of Nation ~ Population
3) Choropleth Map (Color ~ Total population
What benefits and/or drawback do each map have?
Nighttime Satellite Image of Earth
Produced from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program
Cartogram of World Population
Why do people often think Africa is overpopulated?
Choropleth Map of World Population
This is a map of World Population density
How is this different than the other maps? Do you like it better?
Geographical Variation in
Population Growth Rates
Global Growth Rate 2000 is 1.25% per year (doubles in 55 years)
Some countries growing much faster: most of the Middle East nations
most African nations, much of Latin America, and the Indian subcontinent
Some countries are growing more slowly: The United States, Brazil, China,
Australia, Canada, Chile, and Japan
Some countries are actually shrinking: Much of Eastern Europe, Spain,
and Italy
World map of national
Population Growth Rates
Regional Demographics: North America I
U.S. and Canada ~ 5% of World Population
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U.S. ~ 281 million
Canada ~33 million
Mexico ~ 100 million
In 1650 there were about
3 million Native Americans and
50,000 Europeans in what is
now U.S. and Canada
• By 1850 Guns, Germs, and
Steel had reduced Native
American population to
250,000 and European
numbers had grown to 25
million.
Population Density of
North America today
Regional Demographics:
United States
• Colonial America: Really high
fertility rates (8-9 children per
woman in North, much lower in
South)
• Most growth from natural
increase. (immigration only about
3% of it)
• Migration not a major source of
U.S. population growth until 1850
• Almost a population decline
during depression
• Post WWII ‘Baby Boom’
Regional Demographics:
Canada
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Canada originally settled by the French
Ceded to England in 1763
History of French vs. English Rivalry
French speaking Canadians (mostly in Quebec)
Of total population: 28 % in 1931 24% in 1997
• Today Canadian fertility ~ 1.6 children / woman
• Nonetheless population growing from
immigration
• U.S. and Canada two of the most immigrantfriendly countries in the world
Regional Demographics:
Mexico & Central America
• Millions of people in Central America prior to
Columbus (way more than in North America)
• Aztec and remnants of Mayan civilization
quite sophisticated with agriculture and other
cornerstones of complex civilization
• Colonized by Spanish with different goals:
‘take the gold and run away”.
• Population decimated by disease
• Very high population growth since WWII due
to dropping death rates
Mexico & Central America Today
~2 % of Total World Population
• Mexico ~ 100 Million
• Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua,
Costa Rica, Panama, & Belize ~ 35 Million
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TFR in Mexico around 6 from 1600 to 1970
Drops to 3.5 by 1995
10% of Mexican citizens live in U.S. today.
Any connections between those facts?
Regional Demographics:
South America
• South America ~330 million
• About 5 % of World Total
• (A little over half of them in Brazil)
• Brazil colonized by Portuguese –
1/3 of slaves in slave trade ended
up in Brazil. Today the people of
Brazil are Half European
ancestry, Half Native or African
ancestry.
• TFR Brazil 6 in 1960 2.3 today
(a dramatic demographic change)
• In general: Greater European
influence, greater economic
development, lower TFR
Population density of
South America
Regional Demographics:
Europe
• Europe ~730 million
• Russia, Germany, United
Kingdom, France, Italy
(top 5)
• Western Europe growing
slowly thanks to
immigration
• Eastern & Central
Europe actually
depopulating
• Catholic countries of
Spain & Italy with VERY
low fertility rates.
Regional Demographics:
North Africa & Western Asia
• Total Population of the Middle
East and Maghreb ~350 million
(6% world)
• Islam the predominant religion
in the region
• A cluster of nations with
unusually high population
growth rates.
Population Density in the
Middle East
North African Countries aka The Maghreb
Algeria, Libya, Morrocco, Mauritania, Tunisia
Regional Demographics:
Sub-Saharan Africa
• Sub-Saharan Africa
~650 million (11% world)
• 1, 2, 3: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Zaire
• Many of the most population
challenged countries of the world are
in Sub-Saharan Africa
• AIDS will not keep population from
growing, will slow growth rate though
• ~11 million Africans forcibly
relocated to Western Hemisphere
from Slave Trade from 1600-1900
• Lower Death rates since WWII cause
of population growth.
• Birth rates remain high throughout
much of Africa
Population Density of
Africa south of the Sahara
Regional Demographics:
East Asia (China, Japan, N & S Korea)
• East Asia ~1.5 Billion
(25% of World Population)
• China ~1.2 billion
• Japan ~125 million
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1850 1 in 3 living people were Chinese
Today 1 in 4 living people are Chinese
• TFR in China today 1.9
• TFR in Japan today 1.5
• Ironically China is trying to
get their TFR down to 1
whereas Japan would like to
raise theirs to over 2
Population Density in Eastern
China, Japan, and Koreas
Regional Demographics:
South & Southeast Asia
• S & SE Asia ~2 Billion
(1/3 of World Population)
• India ~ 1 Billion (expected to
pass China in total pop size soon due to
higher fertility rate)
• Fertility highly variable throughout
India with notable low levels in Kerala
and Tamil Nadu
• Pakistan & Bangladesh Muslim
whereas India primarily Hindu
• Indonesia is 4th most populous nation
in the world (behind China, India, and
United States) with 219 million (also
the nation with largest Muslim
population)
Population density of the
Indian Sub-continent
Regional Demographics: Oceania
Oceania is sometimes referred
to as “Overseas European”
Total Population ~30 million
Australia 20 million
Papua-New Guinea
and New Zealand
Small populations scattered
around on Islands.
Next Time………..
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Tomorrow we meet in Boettcher West 126
Chapter 2: Demographic Resources
What is a census? How is it conducted?
What kinds of errors are there and how big
are they?