The Outlook for 2014
By Josh Kraushaar, Political Editor
Updated October 28, 2014
National Journal Presentation Credits
Contributor: Josh Kraushaar
Producers: Catherine Treyz, Chris Danello, and David Stauffer
Director: Jessica Guzik
Odds Favor GOP
Projected Party Composition Shifts
Possible gain
of 5-10 seats
In the House
• Odds are that the House will remain stable
• Possible Republican gain of 5-10 seats
Majority control
Possible gain
of 6+ seats
In the Senate
• Odds are roughly 75% for a Republican takeover of
the Senate
• Republicans are likely to net 6 to 9 seats, and a
wave is looking increasingly likely
Majority control
• Many races will swing together, e.g. if Sen. Hagan
(D-NC) loses, difficult to see Sen. Landrieu (D-LA)
or Sen. Pryor (D-AR) winning
• If Republicans are able to win three of four toss-up
races in IA, CO, NC and NH, it will be a big night
for the GOP
2
Big-Picture Political Environment Will Shape Races
Factors At Play In Midterm Elections
National Mood
• President Obama’s
approval is <45%
nationally
• Even lower (sub 40%)
in major Senate
battlegrounds
• Republicans hold a
polling edge on most
major issues
(economy, foreign
policy)
• Democrats still hold
an advantage on social
issues
Health Care
• Republicans are using
the ACA website
rollout and Ebola as
responses to
government
mismanagement
Foreign Policy
Economy
• Following the
administration’s
response to ISIS,
approval of Obama’s
foreign policy is at an
all-time low
• Republicans hold an 18point edge on foreign
policy issues
• Economy is improving,
but slowly
• Right track/wrong track
measures are very
unfavorable for party in
power
3
Most Senate Battlegrounds Voted for Romney
2012 Popular Election Results in
Senate Battleground States
WA
MT
ND
ME
VT
OR
MN
ID
SD
WY
NV
MI
CT
PA
IA
NE
UT
IL
OH
IN
WV
CO
CA
KS
AZ
NM
NH
NY
WI
MO
OK
KY
DE
MD
AR
DC
SC
AL
Dem-held Senate seat
Republican-held Senate seat
NJ
NC
TN
MS
TX
VA
MA
RI
Party Currently Holding
Senate Seat
2012 Presidential Elections
Popular Vote Results
Obama won
Romney won
GA
LA
AK
FL
HI
Analysis
• Of the Democrat-held Senate battleground states, five are in states that Mitt Romney carried in 2012
• Four of those five states were carried by double-digits (AK, AR, LA, SD)
4
Arkansas Proof of Changing Political Landscape
Factors Helping and Hurting 2014 Candidates
Mark Pryor (D)
Current Position: U.S.
Senator
Tom Cotton (R)
Current Position: U.S.
Rep, 4th District
Analysis
AR
The Arkansas race shows
how much the political
landscape has changed
since 2008: Pryor ran
unopposed then, and is
now the most vulnerable
Democrat
++
Pryor name remains famous
within the state; Pryor was
unopposed in 2008
+
+ One of the strongest GOP
recruits, able to unite Tea Party
and establishment bases
++
Pryor has been benefitted by
appearances from former
President Bill Clinton
+
Helping
• Arkansas has grown extremely
- red since 2008
Hurting
+ Strong background as Iraq War
veteran in light of foreign
policy crises
-•
Only a freshman Congressman
• Considered most vulnerable
- Senate Democrat
5
Louisiana Likely to Head to Runoff
Factors Helping and Hurting 2014 Candidates
Bill Cassidy (R)
Current Position: U.S.
Rep, 6th District
Mary Landrieu (D)
Current Position: U.S.
Senator
Analysis
• One of most battle-tested
Democratic Senators
+
LA
If neither Landrieu nor
Cassidy break 50% on
election day, a runoff will
determine the outcome—
potentially with control of
the Senate at stake
Helping
+•
Pres. Obama’s approval remains
low in Louisiana
Energy Committee gavel will
help fundraising, political
positioning
+
• Needs more African American
- turnout than many Dem
Senators
-•
Generic (not very dynamic)
Member of Congress
• Has to thread needle between
- exciting her base and winning
enough moderate whites
-•
Faces crowded GOP field to
right
+•
• Election system means race
could be determined by lowturnout Dec. runoff
Hurting
6
North Carolina is Tale of Two Electorates
Factors Helping and Hurting 2014 Candidates
Thom Tillis (R)
Current Position: NC
State Assembly
Speaker
Kay Hagan (D)
Current Position:
U.S. Senator
Analysis
NC
The bellwether race of the
year. North Carolina is
changing demographically
in Democrats’ favor, but
the midterm electorate is
more conservative.
Helping
• North Carolina changing
+ demographically in the Ds
favor
• Strong support from women
+ voters
+•
Midterm electorate more
conservative
• Comfortably prevailed in
primary, with help from
+ establishment groups
•- Hagan missed ISIS hearings
Hurting
• Groups that fueled Dem
- comeback in state (college
students, African-Americans)
don’t show up for midterms as
much
-•
Tillis is leader of conservative
and unpopular state legislature,
attacked for state education
budget
7
Alaska is Quirky and Unpredictable
Factors Helping and Hurting 2014 Candidates
Mark Begich (D)
Current Position: U.S.
Senator
Analysis
• State’s unpredictability means
+ Begich is most likely Senator
to swing against national tide
AK
Helping
Dan Sullivan (R)
Most Recent Position:
Alaska Natural
Resources
Commissioner
for Ds to win state;
+• Hard
Begich only beat scandalplagued Ted Stevens by 1 point
in 2008
• Compelling nominee, former
+ attorney general and military
Alaska’s independentminded streak means that
Begich may be less
vulnerable to national
electoral trends
veteran
•- Begich’s fundraising is down,
possible sign of tepid support
Hurting
•- Pres. Obama remains
unpopular in Alaska, so Begich
has to walk a tough line
•- Democrats have a larger
ground operation in the state
8
Three Likely GOP Pickups of Open Seats
2012 Popular Election Results in
Key Open Seats
WA
MT
ND
ME
VT
OR
MN
ID
SD
WY
NV
MI
CT
PA
IA
NE
UT
IL
OH
IN
WV
CO
CA
NH
NY
WI
KS
AZ
NM
MO
OK
KY
NC
TN
AR
SC
MS
TX
VA
AL
MA
RI
Dem-held Senate seat
Republican-held Senate seat
NJ
DE
MD
Party Currently Holding
Senate Seat
DC
2012 Presidential Elections
Popular Vote Results
Obama won
Romney won
GA
LA
AK
FL
HI
Montana
• Appointed Sen. John Walsh (D) dropped out
of the race following plagiarism charges, was
replaced by State Rep. Amanda Curtis (D)
• Republicans have strong candidate in Rep.
Steve Daines (R)
South Dakota
West Virginia
• Sen. Tim Johnson (D) retiring
• Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) retiring
• State with few credible Democratic • State where Obama is least popular
candidates
• Features one of the strongest Republican
• Former Gov. Mike Rounds (R) the GOP recruits in Rep. Shelley Moore-Capito (R)
nominee; race has two independent
candidates on the ballot
9
Three Battlegrounds in Democratic-Held Seats
2012 Popular Election Results in
Democratic Open Seat Battlegrounds
WA
MT
ND
ME
VT
OR
MN
ID
SD
WY
NV
MI
CT
PA
IA
NE
UT
IL
OH
IN
WV
CO
CA
KS
AZ
NM
NH
NY
WI
MO
OK
KY
DE
MD
AR
SC
AL
GA
LA
AK
AK
FL
HI
Iowa
•Rep. Bruce Braley’s (D) “trial
Colorado
lawyer” gaffe costly; he has been
•Sen. Mark Udall (D) has focused heavily on social issues
considered the Dems’ worst
throughout the race
candidate of the cycle
•Anger at Obama in the state has intensified heavily
•State Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is a very
•Rep. Cory Gardner (R) is considered the best recruit of the credible challenger, conservative
year for Republicans
but charismatic
Dem-held Senate seat
Republican-held Senate seat
NJ
NC
TN
MS
TX
VA
MA
RI
Party Currently Holding
Senate Seat
DC
2012 Presidential Elections
Popular Vote Results
Obama won
Romney won
New Hampshire
•The race is closing fast; the state tends to
bend with the national mood
•Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown
is fighting a label as a carpetbagger
•The race has one of the highest gender
gaps in the nation
•Brown is blowing up on hot-button news
issues (ISIS, Ebola) and has been benefitted
by large amounts of outside spending
10
Republicans Face Weaknesses on Conservative Turf
In Georgia, Black Turnout Could
Tip Scales Towards Democrats
• Dem weakness in GA: Typically low
African-American turnout in
midterms
• Democrats have highlighted
Republican David Perdue’s record of
outsourcing, using an anti-Romney
playbook
• Michelle Nunn’s (D) path to victory
depends on winning support from
moderate whites and solid AfricanAmerican turnout; the race is likely
to go to a Jan. runoff
In Kansas, an Independent
Candidate Has Changed the Race
In Kentucky, Poor Polling
Threatens McConnell
• Roberts has been hit from the center
• McConnell has overcome nagging
and right in the race; he had to move far
unpopularity, but is still unloved in his
to the right to survive a primary
home state; this could lead to the
challenge from Tea Party candidate Milton possibility, albeit unlikely, that Republicans
Wolf (R), and now is struggling to move
could win the Senate while McConnell
to the center in a general election
loses
• The Democratic candidate in the race
dropped out, leaving Roberts in a oneon-one matchup against self-financing
venture capitalist Greg Orman (I)
• It is unclear whom Orman will caucus
with if he wins the election
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) is benefiting
from her intentionally vague stance on the
issues, but has been weighed down by the
unpopularity of Democratic stances on
coal and healthcare in Kentucky; the
DSCC has fluctuated in its spending
commitment on her behalf
11
Historic Trend Suggests Dems Will Lose Seats
Average
Midterm
Performance:
Loss of 4 seats
Analysis
• The average second-year midterm loss of presidents since World War II is six Senate seats
• This figure is inclusive of more popular presidents, and Obama’s numbers haven’t budged much, even with improving macroeconomic
indicators
• A six-seat Senate loss among Democrats would therefore be consistent with the historic average in the current national political
environment
12
Democratic Wildcard: Microtargeting
Analysis
•The main asterisk: Democrats have proven they’re better at turning
out voters than Republicans
•Montana and North Dakota are prime examples from 2012:
Democrats effectively targeted moderate Romney voters to split
tickets for Sens. Heitkamp (D-ND) and Tester (D-MT)
•DSCC is launching “Bannock Street Project” to microtarget winnable
voters in some of the toughest territory
•This works better in smaller states where the pool of voters is
smaller; turnout depends on persuasion
•Look to Arkansas, Iowa, and Alaska (Clinton voters from the ‘80s,
caucusgoer dropoff)
•There’s a human capital gap between the parties, and it could make a
difference in closer races
13
Overall Outlook
Projected Party Composition Shifts
Possible gain
of 5-10 seats
In the House
• Odds are that the House will remain stable
• Possible Republican gain of 5-10 seats
Majority control
Possible gain
of 6+ seats
In the Senate
• Odds are roughly 75% for a Republican takeover of
the Senate
• Republicans are likely to net 6 to 9 seats, and a
wave is looking increasingly likely
Majority control
• Many races will swing together, e.g. if Sen. Hagan
(D-NC) loses, difficult to see Sen. Landrieu (D-LA)
or Sen. Pryor (D-AR) winning
• If Republicans are able to win three of four toss-up
races in IA, CO, NC and NH, it will be a big night
for the GOP
14