The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies www.cifs.dk
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Commercialisation
Wealth
Globalisation
Network organisations
Knowledge society
IT / Digitising
Individualisation
Bio-technology
Demographics
Values, health, environment
Acceleration, 24 hour society
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

• ONE WAY to work with the future uncertainties: Scenarios
• A description of a possible future
• and/or
• A description of the ”history” to a possible future
• Scenarios do NOT reduce uncertainty
– but may give a ”handle” on it
• Scenarios: Change to different ”mind set” forces new ideas, gives inspiration,
– patterns & contrasts may become more clear
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Purpose: Create four scenarios for workshop
In real life: Variations in products, functions, phases of life, situations, cultures, and value systems
More scenarios...
Basis today: Five ”uncertainties” pre-selected by the CIFS
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

• Mobility
• Individualisation
• Emotion
• Technology acceptance
• Homogenisation
•
•
•
•
•
Anchoring
Community
Function
Technology aversion
Polarisation
1) We choose 2 of these (2 votes each)
2) CIFS has prepared a set of scenarios based on the selected axes
3) You work with these scenarios in the workshop
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

• Mobility
• Drivers: Globalisation,
Digitalisation, Specialisation
• Values: Change and Flexibility
• Specialised places - you have to go there to be part of it
• Multitasking, zapping
• Anchoring
• Stress, lack of identity, more elderly,
”risk society”
• Stability, structures
• Multi-functional places - almost everything may be done from home
• Multitasking - or anchoring of time use in a set of rules ?
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

• Individualisation
• Drivers: Commercialisation, specialisation, IT, mobility
• Values: Atomistic. Me, myself, I.
• Consumer: (Private), personal, situation-dependent
• Politics: Your own responsibility
• Community
• Lack of identity, feeling of uncertainty, change
• Holistic. Finding identity in the group
• (Public). Group consumption, in groups you’ve selected or been born into
• Politics: Social consequences,
”political consumer”, express communal values
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

• Emotion
• Drivers: Economic growth
• Values: Attention, symbolic values
• Markets: Adventures, identity, comfort, opinions, complexity
• Service: Empathy, dreams
• Function
• Drivers: Stagnation/recession
• Values: Efficiency, technical focus
• Markets: Usefulness, value for money, convenience, safety
• Service: Competence, information
• Time: A cost
• Time: Valuable in itself
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

• Acceptance
• Drivers: Problem solutions, comfort, excitement !
• Values: Change, usefulness
• Fast digitalisation
• Biotech is great
• Production: Industrial, automated, ”artificial”
• Aversion
• Fear, uncertainty, doubt, lack of confidence, risk to own positions
• God, Nature, and Stability rules
• Slow digitalisation
• Biotech regulated strongly
• Production: Manual, ”Natural” wherever possible. ”No change” in many industrial products
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

• Polarisation
• Drivers: Market does not equalise, no level playing field
• Values: Differences foster growth
• Wealth: Highly unequal distrib.
• Political values: Extremes
• Consumers: Clearly segmented by income groups
• Homogenisation
• Market and/or welfare state works, ethics
• Large differences are unethical
• Relatively equal distrib. of wealth
• Center politics
• Consumers segmented by noneconomic criteria (culture, values)
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

• Mobility
• Individualisation
• Emotion
• Technology acceptance
• Homogenisation
•
•
•
•
•
Anchoring
Community
Function
Technology aversion
Polarisation
1) We choose 2 of these (2 votes each)
2) CIFS has prepared a set of scenarios based on the selected axes
3) You work with these scenarios in the workshop
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Axis 1
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Axis 2
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

e.g. Anchoring
Scenario 1
Scenario 2 e.g.
Community e.g.
Individualisation
Scenario 3 Scenario 4 e.g. Mobility
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Which uncertainties are most important to the company (related to Future Consumers?
• Mobility
• Individualisation
• Emotion
• Technology acceptance
• Homogenisation
• Anchoring
• Community
• Function
• Technology aversion
• Polarisation
1) We choose 2 of these (2 votes each)
2) CIFS has prepared a set of scenarios based on the selected axes
3) You work with these scenarios in the workshop
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Click to reach the relevant ”scenario grid”
Mobility Individualisation Emotion Tech acceptance Polarisation
Anchoring Community Function Tech aversion Homogenisation
1 Mobility versus Anchoring
2 Individualisation versus Community
3 Emotion versus Function
4 Tech acceptancance vs. Tech aversion
5 Polarisation vs. Homogenisation
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2
3
4
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5
6
7
2
5
8
9
3
6
8
10
4
7
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© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Scenario grid #1
Individualisation-community / anchoring-mobility individualisation
Me and my home
Self realisation - ego-focus
The home is developed (=me)
Rest of world: via the web
Travel - Go for it
Specialised labour market
Metropoles in focus (silicon valley)
City nomads, body & wear focus
(personal branding) anchoring mobility
Clans forever
Loyalty, relations, family
Norms, rituals, traditions
”home-parties” ...
Clubs, clubs & clubs
Social individualists, ”situids” mobile, mirroring in others ...
roleplaying communities, niches community
R
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Scenario grid #2
Emotion-function / anchoring-mobility emotion
Roots
Meaning through everyday life
Slow Food and Slow Cities
Local markets rather than malls
Symbolic values in architecture
To travel is to live
Adventures and experiences
Competing on differences
Travel to learn or improve health
Limited traditional construction anchoring mobility
The power of habits Creative destruction
Safety and predictability
E-business, video conferences
Without mobility, no development
New methods replace old routines
Multifunctional buildings Inspiration from other cultures
Move goods rather than people Global convergence, world citzens function
R
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Scenario grid #3
Tech acceptance - tech aversion / anchoring-mobility
My home is my castle technology acceptance
IT nomads
Why move ?
Virtual reality, broadband homeshopping, telework, …
”Virtual home environment”, wearable, always-on, has it all
Public space is in focus, the home an overnight parking place anchoring
Need for limits mobility
Seeking authenticity
No borders = chaos & pain
Focus: Nearness, origins
Fixed patterns of life
VR is a second best solution!
Life: To experience the world, people, beauty, places, ...
technology aversion
R
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Scenario grid #4
Homogenisation-polarisation / anchoring-mobility polarisation
Gated communities
Ghettoes & luxury ghettoes
Polarised labour market
Insecurity => tele-shopping etc.
The winner takes all
Silicon Valley, Hollywood, London
Star Economy.
”Be there and be part of it - or die” anchoring
All are close & alike
Glocal life via the web
Avoid concentration of people, money, power, ...
Middle class in focus mobility
European integration
Mobile labour market => egalisation
EU ensures total mobility: capital, persons, educations, knowledge,...
homogenisation
R
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Scenario grid #5
Emotion-function / individualisation-community
Brand yourself
Dream society - realise yourself
Maximise existence, be a star
Fight for the best education/job
Don’t retire, rewire. Be unique individualisation
Economic man emotion
Value communites
Dream society - create stories
Focus on values and togetherness
Be attentive, polite, politically correct
Rituals, ’new traditions’, community community
Stakeholder society
Tailor-made functionality for each
Competent, engaged customers
Community for practical reasons
Public services must be functional
Value chains must be certified Risk society - the system must work
Limited branding, digital agents Education and health are expensive function
R
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Scenario grid #6
Tech acceptance-aversion / individualisation-community technology acceptance
Create it yourself technology gives freedom !
Connecting people
”Working together gives strength”
Victory of the individual, e-learning, empowerment, ...
Developing knowledge together
Sharing, car-pools etc.
Transparency, more politics individualisation
Neo-darwinism community
Cultural revolution
Man before Robot !
Reaction: Eco-communes
The unique, the hand made the personal, near.
Values ! Develop man !
(technology isn’t sexy)
Productive co-operation in practice. People. Happiness.
technology aversion
R
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Scenario grid #7 homogenisation-polarisation / individualisation-community
Brand yourself
Superliberal ”Star economy”
Experiences:
Everything is show-business
Everything is up to you !
polarisation
Corporate governance
Divided society, but:
Good service in good companies!
Lifestyle-communities & ghettos
Marginalised: Barter economy individualisation
Managed competition community
Equality & brotherhood
Private initiative in vogue. Public services: Run by private sector.
Welfare state egalises
Taxes & subsidies help equality
More elderly & immigrants:
High public service if you ”fit in”
Low growth: New demands on the state … homogenisation
R
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Scenario grid #8
Emotion-function / tech acceptance-tech aversion
Dreams unlimited
Technology facilitates adventure
Science defeats sickness, death
Toy-size elephants, puppies that never grow up, robot servants tech accept.
emotion
High touch
High touch before high technology
Nature is sacred, tech must retreat
Organic foods, animal welfare
Risk society supports dream society tech aversion
Easier, better, cheaper We have what we need
Technology wins in the long run
Biotech, digitech, robotech
What do we gain from technology?
Opaque risks, why take chances?
New economy, low unemploym.
Make what we have work first.
Lack of labour in health sector We want decent food and homes.
function
R
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Scenario grid #9
Emotion-function / homogenisation-polarisation emotion
Doing well by doing good
Too much inequality is distasteful
Integration is ethically correct
Giving comfort is a human need
Corporate social responsibility
No free lunch
Art/culture commercialised. Tanstaafl
The skilled and lucky are favoured
Immater. poverty worse than material
Livestyle ailments, big health sector homogenisation polarisation
A stitch in time Only do what you do best
Basic needs satisfied (Maslow)
Emotional needs can’t be bought
Equality prevents crime/disease
Service replaces consumption
Polarisation promotes motivation
Extreme specialisation creates value
Makers and shakers - and servicers
Low unemployment, wide wage span function
R
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Scenario grid #10 Tech acceptance-tech aversion / homogenisation-polarisation technology acceptance
Knowledge is free Let it go - free for all technology => transparancy
No monopolies in knowledge, public good - free for all
(free drugs for Africa too)
Everybody wins - in the long run ...
Short term-monopoly: Necessary evil
More ”Microsofts”
Wealthy are ”medically enhanced”
Homogenisation
Equality everywhere
”toBit tax” on new technology
”Democratic technology” OK ?
Low growth, unemployment, but: Work in welfare sector polarisation
Fundamentalism
Tools can be used - or abused.
Hackers, religious fundamentalists fight IT, bio-technology etc.
Basic civil rights under threat technology aversion
R
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

There are many global scenarios, many consumer scenarios, many possible future environments.
There are many possibilities in each possible scenario it’s a matter of strategy - positioning, innovation, ...
R
© Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning - The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies