Political Participation and Voter Behavior

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American political ideology
Ch. 4,5, and 8
• Survey given to 10-14 year olds
• One day the President was driving his car to
a meeting. Because he was late, he was
driving very fast. The police stopped the car.
(Finish the story)
• Different countries answer differently
– England – Queen would be released
– France – President would be excused
– US – President would get a ticket like everyone
else
2000 Election participation
• 82% watched the campaign on television
• 73% voted in the election
• 34% tried to influence others how to vote
• 10% put a sticker on their car
• 9% gave money to help a campaign
• 5% attended a political meeting
• 3% worked for a party or candidate
• Is this true? 73% of people vote? – No
Different factors can tell us who votes
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Education – MOST IMPORTANT, more
education=more voting
Religious involvement
Race and Ethnicity – Whites higher than minorities
(might be economic based)
Age – 18-24 is the lowest, and 45 and up is the highest
Gender – men traditionally voted more, now it is more
equal
Two-party competition – more competitive elections
have higher turnout
Demography – characteristics of diff. groups
Cross-cutting cleavages – individuals
influenced by many factors across
demographic groups
Reinforcing cleavages – Reinforce a division
between groups (Civil Rights)
Socioeconomic status – Based on
population, income, and education
• Widely shared beliefs, values, and norms
about how citizens relate to government
• Elements of:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Suffrage
Social Capital
Natural Rights
Democratic Consensus
Majority Rule
Popular Sovereignty
Nationalism
Capitalism
1.
2.
Lifting of property restrictions (1830) –
“universal manhood suffrage” gave voting
rights to all white males
Suffrage for African-Americans
(1863-1964)
1. 1865 - 15th Amendment – Voting Rights to all
2. 1954 - Brown v. Board – separate but equal is
illegal, killed Jim Crow laws
3. 1964 24th Amendment – banned poll tax
4. 1965 – Voting Rights Act of 1965 – federal law
prohibited (no literacy tests, fair elections etc.)
3.
4.
Women’s Suffrage (1920) – 19th
Amendment gave women the right to vote
18-21 year-olds (1971) – 26th Amendment,
sparked by Vietnam
• Process that influences and develops a
person’s opinion
• People in different social “groups” tend to
share certain opinions: group
identification
I. The Family
II. Gender and Age
III.Race/Ethnicity
IV. School
V. Adult Socialization
I.
marriage, divorce, unemployment, new jobs,
or moves to new locations.
VI. Mass Media
VII.Religion/Groups
VIII.Social Class
• #1 influence of political attitude
• Very strong correlation for Political Party
support
Examples
• More men support military
• More women consider sexual
harassment a serious problem
• Since ’60s, women vote
Democratic more than men,
and vice versa
• Gender Gap
• Women tend to make less
money than men
• Glass Ceiling
• Older Americans tend to vote more than
younger Americans
• 18-29 Year Olds Vote Turnout
– 48% 2004
– 52% 2008
Example
• Higher Education = more conservative
or
• College education = liberal views
Conflicting results, not always a correlation
• “Blue collar” (Laborer) typically Democrat
• Men hold most blue collar jobs
• “White collar” (Businessmen) typically
Republican
Relationship is becoming less clear
Examples
• African Americans (39 M) 13%
– 90% Democrats
• Hispanic Americans (46.9 M) 15%
– tend to affiliate with Democrats, but less likely
than African Americans
• Asian Americans
– less liberal than Hispanic Americans or African
Americans, but still consistently vote Democrat
• Minorities tend to vote more Democratic
• White, more divided, fluctuates by election
• Native Americans = Lower incomes than any
other race in America
Example
• Protestants are more conservative on economic
matters than Catholics or Jews
• Jews (73%) tend to be more liberal on economic and
social issues than Catholics or Protestants
• Catholics tend to be more liberal on economic issues
than they are on social issues (Catholics becoming
more conservative)
• Fundamentalists: Last twenty years these
Conservative Christians have made an impact on the
Republican Party (GOP)
• Interest groups
• Labor unions
• Professional organizations
• Trend of low voter turnout
• 1964 – 69.3%
(Voting Age Population %)
• 1980 – 41.3%
• 1984 – 60.9%
• 1988 – 40.5%
• 1992 – 55.2%
• 1996 – 49.1%
• 2000 – 51.3%
• 2004 – 55.3%
• 2008 – 56.8%
• Registered Voter vs. Eligible Voter
• Voter Registration – Increase in eligible
voters has decreased turnout
• Presidential elections higher than midterm
• “Motor-Voter” (1993) – National Voter
Registration Act – allowed people to
register to vote while they get license
• Difficulty of Absentee Voting (have to vote in
person)
• Increase in eligible voters has decreased turnout
• Citizenship
• Disfranchisement of certain groups (felons, the
mentally incompetent)
• Residency
• Limited opportunities to vote (midweek, limited
hours, single day)
• Need to show identification (gov’t sanctioned ID
cards in some states)
• Closed primaries
• Process of obtaining absentee ballots
• Age: 18-29 year-olds (22%)
• Ethnicity: Minorities (African American/Hispanic)
lower than white
• Education: 28% of adults who are high school
graduates or have less education
– 46% of all college graduates are regular voters
• Religion: People who attend religious services
(39%) tend to be regular voters compared to nonchurch goers (31%)
• Socioeconomic Status: Upper class typically votes
more than any other class.
Based on
1. Party Identification
2. Candidates
3. Issues
1. Prospective voting – what a candidate may
do in the future about an issue
2. Retrospective – President’s past performance
on issues
• Virginia 11th in Turnout (2008)
• The South lowest in voter turnout
– Mainly due to the fact that many African
Americans are still unregistered
• Northerners vote more than Southerners
Other ways to participate
besides voting
Litigation
Protest
Contacting (e.g., media, public officials)
Campaign work/ voter registration
Advantages
Numerical majority unnecessary; appeal to
principle/law as opposed to opinion
Bring public attention; sympathy; low cost;
immediate response; expression of
alienation
Direct access to leaders; magnify
representation; specify policy area in
expression
Contact with potential officials; multiply
individual interest; training ground
Campaign contributions
Access; multiply force of individual
preference
Running for political office/ holding political Direct influence on political decisionoffice
making; set policy agenda
Political discussion to persuade others
Bring others attention to issues
toward action
Membership in an overtly political
Solidarity with others of like interests;
organization
magnifying effect (specific, obviously
political or explained as political)
• The distribution of individual attitudes about a
particular issue, candidate, political institution,
etc.
1. The Family
1. Most influential
2. The Schools:
1. Patriotism and customs
3. The Church
1. Shapes morality
4. Molders of Public Opinion
5. Mass Media
1. Educate the masses
• Measures:
– How intense the people are in beliefs
– Real wants and needs of the people
– Whether opinions are constant or changing
– Polarization or consensus
• Most accurate when the sample that is
polled has a diverse population (aka
universe)
Representative sample – must mirror population
you want answer about
Random poll – give everyone an equal possibility
of being sampled
Wording – carefully worded to avoid confusion
Planning – Must be properly planned
Accurate Analysis
Straw poll – poor polling technique; unofficial
and hastily put together (Not a Good Poll)
• Margin of Error
– Range of % points in which the sample
accurately reflects the population
• + or – 3% points
• Anything over 3-5% runs the risk of invalid
conclusions
• Polls are close but not 100%
– 1948 Election
• Dewey vs. Truman
George Gallup Developed “Gallup Polls”
• Started in 1932
• 1st “pollster”
• Since 1936, agency has picked one general
election result incorrect
• Polling after voting
• Coherent set of values and beliefs about
public policy
• Changes over time for all people
• Liberal and conservative mean different
things at different time periods
1. Ideologues – 12% of people connect their
opinions to party lines
2. Group Benefits Voter – 42% of people
connect their opinion to their “group”.
(labor union, interest group, class, race)
3. Nature of the times voter – 24% of the
people linked good or bad times to the
party in control and vote the opposite
(usually based on economics).
4. No Issue Content – 22% of the people
could give no reason
• Favors: Equal wealth,
regulation of business,
more federal spending on
social programs, Prochoice, legislation for social
justices for minorities
• Opposes: Increase in
defense spending, prayer in
schools, tax breaks for
upper class
• Pessimistic about human nature believing
that gov’t should be small.
• Gov’t should focus on keeping order.
• Favors:
1. Military spending,
2. free market economy,
3. prayer in school,
4. tax breaks on wealthy
• Opposes:
1. Abortion
2. affirmative action
3. spending on social programs
• Wealthy tends to be conservative but this is
changing
•
•
•
•
•
Individual liberty
Minimal government involvement
Free Market Economy
Neutrality Foreign Policy
Absence of regulation on matters of
morality, economy, and social life
• Neo-Conservatives
1. Low tax, pro-economic growth
2. Ordered approach to domestic issues
– Traditional values – pro-life, against gay
marriage, support death penalty
3. Expansive foreign policy
•
•
Counter global terrorism – “war on terror”
expensive
• Ownership of the economy by the
government or a collective.
• Characteristics
– Economic and Social Equality
– Gov’t ownership of land and production
– Social Welfare
– Classless Society
• China, Vietnam, and Cuba
• Most Americans tend to be more moderate
or Centrists rather than Extremists 6%
Example
• East and West Coasts – more liberal
• Mid-West – more conservative
• Urban - liberal
• South – 1870-1950s - Democrat “Solid South”
but today they are primarily social
conservatives
• White Southerner always less liberal
• Public trust of government has declined
significantly in the last forty
years
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