Global trends in Voter
Turnout
Joram Rukambe,
Africa Programme Manager,
International IDEA
Objectives of the Presentation
Highlight key trends in voter turnout and
participation at the global level
Presentation based on research done by
International IDEA on voter turnout world
wide: 1945-2001
Key sources include IDEA database on
voter turnout (2002); The Global Report on
Voter Turnout (2002); and the regional
follow-up for Western Europe (2004) – see
www.idea.int
Introduction
The 20th and 21th centuries saw increased
enfranchisement of voters across
geographical, racial, socio-economic and
gender divides
The 1970s – 1990s saw globalization of
democracy - the ‘third wave of
democracy’
Independence & Democracy increased
democratic countries from 27 % in 1970 to
62% in 2000 (Freedom House).
More avenues for political participation
TODAY than EVER before
Direct Democracy
Citizen’s initiatives
Recalls
Referenda
Lobbying and
media debates
Elections:
Supranational
National
(federal/central)
State
(provincial/regional)
Local/district/municipal/
canton
Civic and other
community-based
(traditional &
religious) forums:
(Khotla)
Reality check
2004 saw more
people voting than
ever before in the
history of mankind
US, Ukraine,
Indonesia,
Afghanistan, India,
etc.
European Parliament

South Africa
Botswana
Namibia
Mozambique
Regional trends in voter turnout: 1990 - 2001
Eastern Europe
72%
Western Europe
78%
North, Central, and
Southern America,
Caribbean
65%
Oceania (Pacific and
Australia)
79%
Africa
64%
Regional trends cont.
Western Europe
Liechtenstein (17) 92%
Belgium (18) 92.5%
N-America and
Caribbean
Bahamas (6) 91%
Canada (18) 73%
Oceana
Australia (22) 94%
New Zealand (19) 92%
Africa
Burundi (1) 91%
Angola (1) 91%
Mauritius (7) 82%
South Africa, Malawi,
Namibia, Mozambique
Correlation between democratic
consolidation and voter turnout?
Slow and steady decline in voter
turnout since the 1980s
Voter apathy is across all regions: older
and newer, and smaller and larger
democracies.
World Wide Turnout: 1945 - 2001
Voter Turnout decline over time
FOUNDING AND SUBSEQUENT ELECTIONS BY REGION
Voter Apathy is more pronounced
among:
Young voters
High-income voters
Diaspora voters
Increased access to information and
education among women has
reduced the ‘gender gap’ in voting
since 1980
Factors influencing electoral
participation
Socio-political factors
Institutional/systemic
factors
Mechanical/Procedura
l factors
Other factors
Socio-political Factors
Bad governance: scandals, lack of
transparency and accountability
Voter distrust of political and electoral
processes: ‘elections will always be
stolen’
Literacy rate
Gerrymander
Lack of viable alternative to the
incumbent: ‘when elections are over
before they start’
Social exclusion and political
disenfranchisement: women, nonnationals, young voters, absentee voters
Systemic Factors
Electoral system: PR yield higher
voter turnout compared to FPTP,
unless in close-result constituencies
Voting age constraint: lowering to 16?
Allowing non-national to vote,
especially in local elections?
Compulsory vs. voluntary registration
and voting: pros and cons
Systemic Factors
Party-systems: multiparty systems
tend to encourage high turnout,
especially if each vote counts and is
not be ‘wasted’
Election dates: holiday season - Dec
26th! rainy season?
Mechanical factors
Access to voter registration and voting:
time and distance
Access to information and education on
democracy, elections, and voting
Several day voting [Mozambique, Namibia]
Declaring voting day a public holiday, or
voting during the weekend
Voter fatigue. ‘Yoked elections?
Easy access to registration and voting for
PLDs: Braille & wheelchair-friendly venues
Mechanical factors
Automation of key electoral processes
(making it easy):
Voter registration [state initiated & continuous]
Voting
Counting
Access to election dispute resolution
mechanisms, including alternative dispute
resolution mechanisms (party liaison
structures)
Other Factors which affect electoral
participation
EMB independence and competence:
How members are appointed and operate
Staff skills and competence
EMB financial and operational autonomy
EMB stakeholder management capacity
Public trust and confidence in political and
electoral processes
The EMB must work hard to make this possible
– ‘making the impossible possible’
Conclusion
The process of increasing voter turnout
requires a two-prong approach:
Systemic reform: electoral systems and election
procedures
Introduction of vigorous and sustained civic and
voter education campaigns to lure voters back
to the polls
Stakeholder participation (multi-sectoral
collaboration) is critical for the success of
this two-prong intervention
-End-