Rick Scott, Governor
Esther Jacobo, Interim Secretary
The following document presents preliminary data
concerning recidivism rates of sex offenders civilly
committed or reviewed for civil commitment under chapter
394, part V, Florida Statutes, and later released. No part of
this study has been published, submitted for publication, or
in any way peer reviewed by qualified clinicians or
researchers as to its methodology, conclusions, or
interpretations.
The Department does not consider the statistical data
presented in this document to provide a basis for guiding
clinical judgment in sex offender risk assessments, and
does not support applying this data in such manner.
Mission: Protect the Vulnerable, Promote Strong and Economically Self- Sufficient Families,
and Advance Personal and Family Recovery and Resiliency.
Groups of recommended offenders
later released
• Offenders released from prison (most without a petition filed
or with petition dropped before a probable cause finding by
the court). (“prison releases”)
• Offenders released from FCCC while still detainees (never
committed). Petitions dropped after probable cause finding
but before trial, or the inmate was not committed at trial.
(“detainees”)
• Offenders released as no longer meeting commitment criteria
(including those reaching Phase IV and determined to have
achieved Maximum Therapeutic Benefit). (NLM or “no longer
meets”)
• Offenders released as detainees on Settlement (or stipulation)
Agreements (conditional release). (S/A or “settlement
agreements”)
2
Involuntary Civil Commitment of Sexually
Violent Predator Act
Sexually Violent Predator (statutory
definition):
•
Convicted of at least one sexually
violent offense
•
Suffers from a mental abnormality or
personality disorder
•
The abnormality makes the person
likely to engage in sexual violence.
•
The person is likely if not confined.
3
Release Times
• Offenders released from commitment (NLM) have not been
released nearly as long as other groups. They are also the
oldest at release and have the lowest average Static score.
• Proportionally, prison releases have been out the longest, were
the youngest at release, and have the highest average score.
• 27% NLM have been released over 5 years (51% for 3 or less
yrs.) Average Age = 49.7. Average 99R score = 4.5
• 45% settlement agreements out 5+ yrs. (21% for 3 or less years)
Average Age = 46.3. Avg. 99R score = 5.0
• 66% detainees out 5+ yrs. (17% for 3 or less years)
Average Age = 45.4. Avg. 99R score = 5.1
• 86% prison releases out 5+ yrs. (7% for 3 or less years)
Average Age = 42. Avg. 99R score = 5.3
4
Comparison of released offenders
Felony Sex Offense Conviction: FSC
Any Felony Charge, sexually motivated offense (include conviction): FCh
Any Sex Charge (w / victim): ASC
Age = Average Age at Release (e.g. for detainees: release from FCCC)
Average Static-99R scores computed from original Static-99 scores
NLM = 100; IV = 39; S/A = 161; Detainee = 366; Prison = 83
FSC:
FCh:
ASC:
99R:
Age:
NLM
3%
4%
7%
4.5
49.7
IV
0.0%
2.6%
5.1%
4.9
48.4
S/A
3.1%
6.8%
6.8%
5.0
46.3
Detainee
6.6%
8.7%
10.7%
5.1
45.4
Prison
10.8%
15.7%
16.9%
5.3
42.0
Max Benefit: Avg. 99R = 4.4; Avg. Age = 48.2; FC/ASC = 12.5%
NLM: 27% released 5+ yrs. IV: 28% S/A: 45% Det.: 66% Pris.: 86%
5
Sample (excluded)
• Individuals never released by the referring agency (e.g. NGI,
PPRD, Florida DC due to loss of gain time or new offense)
• Individuals who upon release were confined elsewhere
–
–
–
–
DJJ to DC
DC to jail and back to DC (e.g., pseudo-recidivism)
DC/DJJ/NGI to FCCC
DC/FCCC to federal prison/ out of the country or out of state prison
and unable to determine release date
• Deported or Deceased at time of release from DC or FCCC
• One female
6
Sample
• All males (The one female was excluded)
• 710 individuals
– Average Age at time of release=45.8 years
• Range 18-93
• Median age= 45.6
Age Distribution
13%
19%
13%
55%
18-34
35-39
40-59
60+
7
Sample
• Other demographics:
– Race
•
•
•
•
60% White
39% Black
1% Hispanic*
.1% Asian/Pacific Islander
Race Distribution
1% 0%
White
Black
39%
*Might be an underestimate based on the coding of race
60%
Hispanic
Asian/P.I
.
8
Source Information
To determine if an individual was released or had a new sex offense,
information was gathered from the following sources:
• Florida Department of Corrections website
• Department of Corrections in other states, as appropriate
• Clerk of Courts Information System
• Sex Offender Registries - federal and state
• Internet
• SVPP records
9
Results
71 reoffenses consisted of:
• 32 Felony Sex Offense Convictions
• 9 Felony Sexually Motivated Convictions
• 5 Misdemeanor Convictions
• 19 Felony Charges (i.e., pending, acquitted,
nolle prossed)
• 6 Misdemeanor Charges
10
Groups
The sample of recommended offenders who
were released was divided into four groups:
10+ years (release dates more than 10 years prior to date of review)
n=170
5+ to 10 years (release dates from over 5 up to 10 years prior to review) n=251
3+ to 5 years (release dates from over 3 up to 5 years prior to review)
n=134
0 to 3 years (release dates from 2/28/13 and up to 3 years prior to review) n=155
11
Sexual Reoffenses by Group
ALL REOFFENSES (charges and convictions)
Group
n=
0-3
155
3-5
F
SO
CN
F SM
CN
MM
CN
F
Charge
MM
Charge
Total
Recidivism Rate
2
0
1
3
0
6
4%
134
2
0
1
8
3
14
10%
5-10
251
17
4
2
5
2
30
12%
10+
170
11
5
1
3
1
21
12%
TOTAL
710
32
9
5
19
6
71
10%
12
Reoffenses by Group
CONVICTIONS ONLY
Group
n=
0-3
155
3-5
F SO CN
F SM CN
MM
CN
Total
Recidivism Rate
2
0
1
3
2%
134
2
0
1
3
2%
5-10
251
17
4
2
23
9%
10+
170
11
5
1
17
10%
TOTAL
710
32
9
5
46
7%
13
Reoffenses by Group
FELONY CONVICTIONS ONLY
Group
n=
F SO CN
F SM CN
Total
Recidivism Rate
0-3
155
2
0
2
1%
3-5
134
2
0
2
2%
5-10
251
17
4
21
8%
10+
170
11
5
16
9%
TOTAL
710
32
9
41
6%
14
Comparison to Static 99/99R rates
• Static-99:
• Scores 6+ (n = 129): 39%; 45%; 52% (5,10,15 yrs.).
• Score 5 (n = 100): 33%; 38%; 40% (5,10,15 yrs.).
• Static-99R (High Risk/Need):
• Score 6: 31.2%; 41.9% (estimated rates; 5, 10 yrs.).
• Score 5: 25.2%; 35.5% (estimated rates; 5, 10 yrs.).
• Score 4: 20.1%; 29.6% (estimated rates; 5, 10 yrs.).
15
Static-99R
• Routine Group:
• Score 6: 14.7% (estimated rate for 5 years follow-up
• Score 5: 11.4%
• Preselected for Treatment Group:
• Score 6: 20.2%; 27.6% (5, 10 yrs.).
• Score 5: 15.9%; 22.6%
• Non-Routine Group:
• Score 6: 24.7%; 33.4%
• Score 5: 19.6%; 27.7%
16
Comparison of Recidivism Rates by Group
Group
0-3
n=155
3-5
5-10
10+
n=134 n=251 n=170
Total Sample
N=710
All
Offenses
4%
10%
12%
12%
10%
All
2%
Convictions
2%
9%
10%
7%
Felony
1%
Convictions
2%
8%
9%
6%
17
Reoffenses by Age at Release
(Total and Convictions)
Age
(at
release)
MM
CN
F
Charge
MM
Charge
3 0
0
1
0
4
30-39
147 13 4
1
7
0
40-49
245 11 5
4
6
50-59
149
5 0
0
94
0 0
710 32 9
18-29
60+
TOTAL
n=
75
F
SO
CN
F
SM
CN
Total
Recidivism
Rate
Total
CN
Recidivism
Rate
CN Only
5%
3
4%
25
17%
18
12%
6
32
13%
20
8%
4
0
9
6%
5
3%
0
1
0
1
1%
0
0%
5
19
6
71
10%
46
6%
18
Age at Release and
Type of Reoffense
(mean=45.8 years)
30
25
20
Contact
Non-Contact
Unknown
15
10
5
0
18-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60+
19
Main Categories of Offenses
Contact
Child
Molestation
Rape
Known
Victim
Stranger
Victim
Known
Victim
Compliant
Victim
Stranger
Victim
20
Main Categories of Offenses
Non-Contact
Exposure
Child
Pornography
21
Categories of Offenses
Contact Offense
Rape or Attempt
(stranger) n=16
Rape or Attempt (known
victim) n=10
Child Molestation (no
penetration) n=12
Child Molestation
(penetration) n=8
Child Molestation
(compliant) n= 3
22
Categories of Offenses
Non-Contact Offense
Exposure, Child n=5
Exposure, Adult n=6
Child Pornography n=2
Other n=2
23
Offenses with Child Victims
– 26 Individuals reoffended with children (37%
of all reoffenses; 3.7% of recommended
offenders)
• 18 were convicted (16 F CN and 2 MM CN)
• 5 were not convicted (Nolle Prossed, Acquitted,
Dropped, No Info Filed)
• 3 of the reoffenses are Pending
24
Offenses with Child Victims, cont..
– Average Age (at time of offense) of individuals
who reoffended with children = 44.6
• Range = 22 to 63
• Median = 45
# of Recidivists
10
8
6
4
2
0
# of Recidivists
25
Offenses with Child Victims, cont..
– Release Date:
•
•
•
•
0-3 = 2 (8%)
3-5 = 3 (16%)
5-10 = 13 (50%)
10+ = 8 (31%)
– Contact Offenses:
• n=20 (77% of all offenses with child victims)
– 14 were Convicted
– Non-Contact Offenses:
• n=6 (23% of all offenses with child victims)
– 4 were Convicted
26
Offenses with Child Victims, cont..
– Contact Offenses:
• 8 Offenses included penetration (11% of all
reoffenses; 1.1% of recommended offenders)
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
0 Stranger Victims
0 Offenses with physical violence
3 Offenses with threat of physical violence
4 Offenses with coercion/intimidation
5 Offenses were convicted (1 NP, 1 Acquitted, 1 Pending)
Average Age of offender = 44.9
Youngest victims were 6 year old male and 7 year old
female
27
Offenses with Child Victims, cont..
– Contact Offenses:
• 12 Offenses included contact without penetration [i.e.,
fondling] (17% of all reoffenses; 1.6% of recommended
offenders who were released)
– 4 Stranger Victims (0.6% of recommended offenders)
– 1 Offense included possible physical violence (this charge
was No Info Filed)
– 0 Offenses with threat of physical violence
– 2 Offenses with restraint of victim
– 2 Offenses with coercion/intimidation
– 9 Offenses were convicted (1 Dropped, 1 No Info Filed, 1
Pending)
– Average Age of offender = 47.5
– Youngest victim was 3 year old male
28
Offenses with Child Victims, cont..
– Non-Contact Offenses:
• 6 Offenses included no contact or intent for contact
(8% of all reoffenses)
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
5 offenses were exposures
1 offense was stalking
4 Stranger Victims
0 Offenses included physical violence/threat of physical
violence/restraint
1 Offense included coercion/intimidation
4 Offenses were convicted (1 NP, 1 Pending)
Average Age of offender = 35.8 (median 37)
Youngest victim was 5 year old female
29
Offenses with Adult Victims
– 40 Individuals reoffended with adults (56% of
all reoffenses; 5.6% of recommended
offenders who were released)
• 24 were convicted (22 F CN and 2 MM CN)
• 11 were not convicted (Nolle Prossed, Acquitted,
Dropped, No Info Filed)
• 5 of the reoffenses are Pending
30
Offenses with Adult Victims, cont..
– Average Age (at time of offense) of individuals
who reoffended with adults = 43.2
• Range = 30 to 66
• Median = 43
# of Recidivists
20
15
10
5
0
# of Recidivists
31
Offenses with Adult Victims, cont..
– Release Date:
•
•
•
•
0-3 = 4 (10%)
3-5 = 11 (28%)
5-10 = 12 (30%)
10+ = 13 (33%)
– Contact Offenses:
• n=33 (83% of all offenses with adult victims; 4.6% of
recommended offenders who were released)
– 22 were Convicted
– Non-Contact Offenses:
• n=7 (17% of all offenses with child victims)
– 2 were Convicted
32
Offenses with Adult Victims, cont..
– Contact Offenses:
• 16 Offenses included rape or attempted rape of a
stranger victim (23% of total reoffenses; 2.3% of
recommended offenders)
–
–
–
–
–
12 Offenses with physical violence*
4 Offenses with threat of physical violence
13 Offenses were convicted (3 Pending)
Average Age of offender = 42 (median 41)
5 Offenses with teenage victims (age 15-17)
*One offense included murder of victim
33
Offenses with Adult Victims, cont..
– Contact Offenses, cont..:
• 10 Offenses included rape or attempted rape of a
known victim (14% of total reoffenses; 1.4% of
recommended offenders)
– 4 Offenses were Domestic Violence (1 convicted)
– 9 Offenses with physical violence*
– 1 Offense with possible threat of physical violence and
restraint
– 6 Offenses were convicted (2 Dropped, 1 NP, 1 Pending)
– Average Age of offender = 42.2 (median 40)
– 2 Offenses with teenage victims (age 14 and 17)
*One offense included murder of victim
34
Offenses with Adult Victims, cont..
– Contact Offenses, cont..:
• 7 Offenses were contact offenses without
penetration(10% of total reoffenses)
–
–
–
–
–
3 Offenses involved stranger victims
2 Offenses with physical violence
3 Offenses were convicted (2 NP, 1 Dropped, 1 Pending)
Average Age of offender = 47 (median 48)
3 Offenses with teenage victims (age 15-16)
35
Offenses with Adult Victims, cont..
– Non-Contact Offenses:
• 7 Offenses included no contact or intent for contact
(10% of all reoffenses)
–
–
–
–
6 offenses were exposures
1 offense was stalking
2 Stranger victims, 2 possible stranger victims
0 Offenses included physical violence/threat of physical
violence/restraint/coercion/intimidation
– 2 Offenses were convicted (2 NP, 2 Acquitted, 1 Not
Filed)
– Average Age of offender = 42.8 (median 44)
– 1 Offense with teenage victim (age 14), and 3 offenses
with possible teenage or adult victims (ages unknown)
36
Reoffenses by Type of Offense and
Age at Release
(charges and convictions)
Age
(at release)
n=
CONTACT
OFFENSE
Rate
RAPE
Rate
CONTACT
OFFENSE
AGAINST
CHILD
Rate
18-29
75
2
3%
2
3%
0
0%
30-39
147
20
14%
12
8%
5
3%
40-49
245
22
9%
11
4%
10
4%
50-59
149
8
5%
1
1%
4
3%
94
1
1%
0
0%
0
0%
710
53
7%
26
4%
19
3%
60+
TOTAL
37
Reoffenses by Type of Offense and
Age at Release
(convictions only)
Age
(at release)
n=
CONTACT
OFFENSE
Rate
RAPE
Rate
CONTACT
OFFENSE
AGAINST
CHILD
Rate
18-29
75
1
1%
1
1%
0
0%
30-39
147
15
10%
10
7%
3
2%
40-49
245
16
7%
8
3%
7
3%
50-59
149
4
3%
0
0%
4
3%
94
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
710
36
5%
19
3%
14
2%
60+
TOTAL
38
Rates for Contact Offenses and
Non-Contact Offenses by
Offender Age
Age
n=
C.O.
(all)
Rate
C.O.
(cn)
Rate
N.C. (all)
Rate
N.C. (cn)
Rate
18-29
75
2
3%
1
1%
1
1%
1
1%
30-39
147
20
14%
15
10%
4
3%
3
2%
40-49
245
22
9%
16
7%
9
4%
3
1%
50-59
149
8
5%
4
3%
1
1%
1
1%
94
1
1%
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
710
53
7%
36
5%
15
2%
8
1%
60+
TOTAL
C.O. = Contact Offense
N.C. = Non-Contact Offense
39
Rates for Rapes and Contact
Offenses against Children by
Offender Age
Age
n=
Rape
(all)
Rate
Rape
(cn)
Rate
C.O.
Child
(all)
Rate
C.O.
Child
(cn)
Rate
18-29
75
2
3%
1
1%
0
0%
0
0%
30-39
147
12
8%
10
7%
5
3%
3
2%
40-49
245
11
4%
8
3%
10
4%
7
3%
50-59
149
1
1%
0
0%
4
3%
4
3%
94
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
710
26
4%
19
3%
19
3%
14
2%
60+
TOTAL
C.O. Child = Contact Offense against Child
40
Paraphilia NOS
Paraphilia NOS (qualifiers not recorded; whole sample):
0-3 year group: 3/75 (4%) have a new rape charge
3+ - 5 year group: 2/73 (2.7%) have a new rape charge
5+ -10 year group: 7/122 (5.7%) have a new rape charge
10+ year group: 6/45 (13.3%) have a new rape charge
Paraphilia NOS:
0-3 yr.: 5 / 75 (6.7%) have any new sex charge (sex motivation)
3+ - 5 yr.: 7 / 73 (9.6%) have any new charge (sex mot.)
5+ - 10 yr.: 18 / 122 (14.8%) have any new charge (sex mot.)
10+ yr.: 9 / 45 (20%) have any new charge (sex motivation)
10+ group: 2 offenders 50-59 with new rape charge
1 offender age 40-49 with new rape charge
0 offenders age 60 or more. [Others (3) in their 30s.]
41
Pedophilia
Pedophilia (or Pedophilia + Paraphilia NOS) (whole sample):
0-3 year: 2/61 (3.3%) with new child contact charge
3+ - 5 year: 0/46 (0%) with new child contact charge
5+ - 10 year: 3/56 (5.4%) with new child contact charge
10+ year: 1/37 (2.7%) with new child contact charge
Pedophilia:
0-3 yr.: 2/61 (3.3%) any new sex charge (sexual motivation)
3+ - 5 yr.: 3/46 (6.5%) any new charge (sex mot.)
5+ - 10 yr.: 5/56 (8.9%) any new charge (sex mot.)
10+ yr.: 3/37 (8.1%) any new charge (sex mot.)
42
Breakdown into Categories of
Recommended Offenders Later Released
• Offenders Recommended but Released as FCCC detainees
without commitment (no Settlement Agreement): N = 366
• Offenders Recommended but Released from Prison: N = 83
(no commitment; never went to FCCC) 4 had Settlement
Agreements but were included here.
• Offenders Recommended and Committed but later released
as no longer meeting criteria: N = 100
• Offenders Recommended but released per Settlement
Agreements (from FCCC): N = 161
(Two S/A offenders are also No Longer Meets and included in
that category only.)
43
Recommended Offenders Released Without
Commitment
7.3% (total) obtained a new conviction related to a sexually motivated
felony offense (33 / 449)
10% obtained a new charge for anything sexual
(45 / 449)
5.3% of released FCCC detainees obtained a new conviction (24 / 366).
8.7% of detainees obtained a new felony charge
(32 / 366)
10.7% of detainees obtained any new sex charge (39 / 366)
[10+: 110; 5-10: 130; 3-5: 62; 0-3: 64.]
10.8% of recommended offenders released from prison obtained a new
conviction for a sexually motivated felony (9 / 83)
15.7% have a new felony charge (13 / 83)
16.9% have any new sex charge (14 / 83)
[10+: 37; 5-10: 34; 3-5: 6; 0-3: 6. Only 12 have been out 5 years or less
44
Paraphilia NOS vs. Pedophilia in Never
Committed Offenders
• Paraphilia NOS (with or without Sexual Sadism)
• 202 Never Committed offenders with Paraphilia NOS
and/or Sexual Sadism (196 NOS; 6 Sexual Sadism only.)
• Rates of New Charges for Rape related offenses:
• 10+ year group: 3.4% with at least a new charge for a
rape related offense (5 / 147) 4.8% any sex charge.
• 5+ - 10 year group: 3.0% (5 / 164) 9.8% any sex charge.
• 3+ - 5 year group: 2.9% (2 / 68) 5.9% any sex charge.
• 0 – 3 year group: 0% 2.9% any charge (2 / 70)
45
Pedophilia in Never Committed
Offenders
• 119 never committed offenders have a Pedophilia
diagnosis (with or without Paraphilia NOS too).
• 10+ year group: 2.9% have a new charge related to child
molestation (1 / 34). 8.8% have any charge (3 / 34)
• 5+ - 10 group: 2.6% new child molestation charge (1/38)
5.3% have any sex charge (2 / 38)
• 3+ - 5 group: 0% with new molestation charge
11% have any new sex charge (2 / 18)
• 0 – 3 group: 6.9% with new molestation charge or any
new sex charge (2 / 29)
46
Committed Offenders Released as No
Longer Meeting Criteria
• 100 offenders released from commitment status
as no longer meeting criteria. (Two have
Settlement Agreements.)
• 3% have a new felony conviction related to a
sexually motivated offense (3/100)
• 4% have at least a new felony charge related to
a sexually motivated felony (4/100)
• 7% have any new sex charge (w / victim)
(7/100)
47
Time since release
• Offenders released from commitment (NLM) have not been released
as long as offenders with settlement agreements, released
detainees, or offenders released from prison. Their percentages
might rise somewhat by the time they match the release periods of
the other groups.
• Proportionally, prison releases have been out the longest
•
•
•
•
27% NLM have been released over 5 years (51% for 3 or less yrs.)
45% settlement agreements (21% for 3 or less years)
66% detainees (17% for 3 or less years)
86% prison releases (7% for 3 or less years)
10+:
5-10:
3-5:
0-3:
NLM
7
20
22
51
Settlement Agree.
16
67
44
34
Detainees
110
130
62
64
Prison
37
34
6
6
48
No Longer Meets Releases
• 10+ group: 0% felony sex convictions
(0 / 0)
• 5+ - 10 group: 5% felony sex convictions
(1 / 20)
• 3+ - 5 group: 4.5% felony sex convictions
(1 / 22)
• 0 – 3 group: 2% felony sex convictions
(1 / 51)
49
Phase IV releases
• Phase IV releases: 2.6% with new felony charges (2 / 39)
• Phase IV (no max benefit): 0% (0 / 23)
• Phase IV Maximum Benefit: 12.5% (same 2 as above / 16)
For the Max Benefit group: One offender with a misdemeanor
battery charge pending (child contact). A second offender
with a felony charge related to an alleged rape of known
victim; domestic violence (nolle prossed)
Phase IV group breakdown:
• 10+ group: 0
• 5+ - 10 group: 11 (Max. Benefit = 4)
• 3+ - 5 group: 19 (Max. Benefit = 13)
• 0 – 3 group: 9 (in our study) 4 on FCCC release list that we
have yet to examine. (Max. Benefit = 6)
• 22.8% released more than 5 years
50
Settlement Agreements
• 3.1% of S/A offenders have a new felony sex offense
conviction (5 / 161) [8 more were just found; no felony sex
offense convictions. 3.0% if these are included. One of these
was for child pornography possession.
• 6.8% have a new felony charge related to a sexually
motivated offense (11 / 161)
• 6.8% have any new sex charge (w / victim) (11 / 161)
• S/A offenders with Paraphilia NOS:
• 5.3% have a new charge for a rape related offense (4 / 75)
• 9.3% have any new sex charge (7 / 75)
• S/A offenders with Pedophilia:
• 2.2% have a new child molestation charge (1 / 45)
• 2.2% have any new sex charge (1 / 45)
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Static-99R & Age
• Entire sample:
• Average Age (710) = 45.8 (Median: 45.6) Range: 18-93
• Avg. Age for Reoffenders (71) = 41.6 (Median: 42.1)
• Avg. Age for the others (396) = 46.3 (Median: 46.2)
• Average Static-99R (415) = 5.1 (Median: 5.0)
• Avg. 99R for Reoffenders (51) = 5.7 (Median: 6.0)
• Avg. 99R for others (364) = 5.0 (Median: 5.0)
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