Business Employment Dynamics: Birth/Death Data Analysis for the

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Improvements in the BLS Business
Register
Richard Clayton
David Talan
12th Meeting of the Group of Experts on
Business Registers
Paris, France
September 14-15, 2011
Outline
 Concepts
and Sources
 Reducing Respondent Burden
 Data Sharing
 New Statistical Products
Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages
Quarterly census of employers covered
under UI and federal employers
covered under UCFE
 98% of U.S. Employment

QCEW – Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages






Quarterly data (frequent)
Released 6 months after reference period timely
9.1 million records and growing
130 million in employment
Units, employment and wages
6 digit NAICS and county, ownership
20 million data series available on the BLS website

UI based, mandatory collections to run UI
Wages
Employment
Units
- 98% reported data
- 97% reported data
- 95% reported data
4
Investment in Quality

Source: BLS Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages (QCEW)
Administrative data from Unemployment
Insurance filings (UI)
Huge investment in improving raw
administrative data
Two supplemental collections
– ARS- Annual Refiling Survey
– MWR- Multiple Worksite Report
Independent Validation
Checks

Current Employment Statistics Survey
Monthly Survey of Employment and
Earners
400,000 establishments
Detailed industry and geographic estimates

Individual Wage Records
National
State
6
Highly Accurate Data
Thorough editing and review at the state,
regional, and national levels each quarter
 196 Interactive Edits
 QCEW staff contact businesses to validate
or correct questionable data and/or
provide missing data (probably unique in
this respect)
 Development of new processing system
with even more powerful editing and
review capabilities

7
QCEW Concepts

Employer
QCEW

Establishment

Reporting unit

Multi-establishment employer
Business Register Sources
UI Status Determination Form
 UI Quarterly Contribution Report

BLS Multiple Worksite Report
 BLS Federal Government Report
 BLS Annual Refiling Survey Forms

Status Determination
Form
Data obtained:
UI account number
 business name
 business address
 employer
identification
number

ownership status
 industry status
 multi-establishment
employer status
 predecessor
information

Quarterly UI Contribution
Report
Data obtained:
monthly employment
 total wages
 taxable wages
 employer contributions

Multiple Worksite Report
Data obtained:
establishment address
 worksite description
 monthly employment by establishment
 total wages by establishment

Federal Government
Report
Federal employment and wages
 All Federal worksites report electronically

Annual Refiling Forms
Verify and update:
industry codes
 geographic codes
 ownership status
 business names and addresses
 multi-establishment status

BLS Business Register

Updated each quarter

Over 9 million records
BLS
Business
Register

Longitudinal database

Linked to create a time series for each
establishment
Reducing Response Rates

Electronic Data Interchange (EDI)
Center

Touchtone Data Collection

Web Collection
EDI Center
Established in 1995
 Purpose: Collect data electronically
from large firms in multiple states
 The EDI Center collects 24% of the
nation’s establishments representing
20% of employment
 The EDI Center has improved
response rates and productivity while
reducing costs and respondent burden

Touchtone Data Collection
Established in 2002
 Purpose: Collect data from
respondents to the Annual Refile
Survey
 Touchtone Data Entry (TDE) accounts
for about 29% of ARS respondents
 TDE has improved response rates and
productivity while reducing costs and
respondent burden

MWR Internet Web Collection
Established in 2007
 Purpose: Collect data from
respondents to the MWR
 MWR Web accounts for about 13% of
total employment and 10% of
establishments
 MWR Web has improved response
rates and productivity while reducing
costs and respondent burden

Data Sharing
Bureau of Economic Analysis
 Census Bureau
 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)
 Future Data Sharing Plans

Bureau of Economic
Analysis
Receives Employment and Wage Data
every quarter
 Used to prepare the Personal Income
component of the National Income and
Products Accounts at the national, state
and county level
 QCEW wages represent 94% of the
wage and salary component of Personal
Income and 42.5% of GDP

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Census Bureau
Receives industry codes every quarter.
 Used in the Census Business Register to
help classify new establishments.
 In FY2011, BLS supplied Census with
3.3 million matched firm records
 This data sharing project reduces
respondent burden, improves industry
codes for Census, and helps to create
consistent statistical products

22
NOAA
Used to develop ocean economy
economic indicators of employment and
wages at the national, state and county
level
 This data sharing project is helping
NOAA develop new social science tools
and methods used to address the
nation’s coastal issues
 http://csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/s
napshots/index.html

23
Future Data Sharing Plans

More Data Sharing with Census:
Sharing Multi-units data
Sharing Professional Employer
Organization (PEO) data

Department of Agriculture Economic
Research Service
24
Continuous Progress and
Improvements
1991 –1992 : Multiple Worksite Reports - county Level
2001
: Longitudinal Database completed
1998 – 2001 : NAICS Implemented
2002
: Quarterly Publication Initiated
2003
: Business Employment Dynamics (BED)
: Geocoding started
2004
: NAICS History Released (Sept 2004)
4 Week Acceleration Completed
2005
: BED Firm Size Data
2007
: NAICS 2007 Conversion (2007/Q1)
2010
: QCEW Mapping Tool
BED Expansion
Uses Of Quarterly Census of Employment
and Wages Data (QCEW)
Local Economic Development
Indicators
• Clusters Analysis
• Shift Share
• Industry Diversity Indexes
• Location Quotients
Minimum Wage Studies
Quarterly Press Releases,
Annual Employment and Wages
Job Creation/Destruction
•Size Class Dynamics
•Business Survival Rates
Geocoded Establishments
Interagency Data Uses
• Improve CPS After 2000 Census
• LEHD
• Industry Code Sharing
Local Government Services
Planning
Local Economic Impact
Response Planning
Local Transportation Planning
Current Employment
Statistics
Gross Domestic Product (BEA)
Occupational
Employment Statistics
Personal Income (BEA)
State Revenue Projections
Occupational Safety
and Health Statistics
Economic Forecasting
Jobs Openings & Labor
Turnover Survey
General Economic Uses
Benchmarking
(Employment Base)
Analytical Uses
Quarterly Census
of Employment &
Wages Data
(QCEW/
Sampling
Industrial Price Program
Programmatic Uses
UI Tax Rate & Actuarial
Analysis
UI-Covered Employment
National Compensation Survey
Current Employment
Statistics
Occupational Employment Statistics
Local Area Unemployment
Mass Layoff Statistics
Federal Funds Allocation
$175 Billion
(HUD, USDA, HCFA/CHIP)
Occupational Safety and Health
Statistics
Job Openings & Labor Turnover
Survey
Employment and Wage
Data

number of establishments, monthly
employment, and quarterly wages
Available by:
 geographical area
 industry code
 size
WAGE
S
QCEW Publications
Annual Bulletin via the Web
Employment and Wages
Released in Fall After Year’s End
Quarterly Press Releases
County Employment and Wages
Business Employment Dynamics
Timeliness
January 1 – March 31
= Reference Quarter
March 31 – April 30
= Reporting Period
May 1 – July 29
= UI Processing
QCEW Extract from UI
QCEW Edit & Review
July 30 – Sept 28
= State File sent to BLS
BLS Review
State Updates Received
September 29, 2011
= Publication
Lag
= 6 months
QCEW Mapping Tool
31
QCEW Mapping Tool
32
Uses of Geocoded Data
33
Business Employment
Dynamics (BED)

Linked longitudinally QCEW data to create a time
series
– Unit of analysis is the Establishment

Scope
– Private sector, excludes private households
• 6.8 million establishments
• 107 million employment
Reveals the dynamics of the labor market.
 Shows gross flows as well as net employment
changes

Uses
Business Demography data:
 Provides policy-relevant series at all
levels of government
 Assesses the employment dynamics of
the business cycle
 Provides new indicators on the health of
the labor market
36
BED Data Series Available
National Total Private
 National NAICS Sector
 National Firm Size
 State Total Private
 Size of Employment Change
(National)
 Annual (National/State)
 Birth Death (National/State)
 Age/Survival (National)

September 2003
 May 2004
 December 2005
 August 2007
 September 2008
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

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May 19, 2009
May 19, 2009
August, 18 2010
Gross job gains
Gross job losses
Expansions
Contractions
Openings
Closings
40
Survival Rates Across Cohorts
42
Accessing the QCEW and BED
Macrodata
BED:
http://www.bls.gov/bdm/home.htm
 QCEW:
http://www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm

43
Contact Information
Richard Clayton
David Talan
Email: clayton.richard@bls.gov
Email: talan.david@bls.gov
www.bls.gov/bdm
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