Monetary Policy & Aggregate Demand Chapter 14-3 Expansionary monetary policy is monetary policy that increases aggregate demand. Contractionary monetary policy is monetary policy that reduces aggregate demand. Expansionary Monetary Policy to Fight a Recessionary Gap Contractionary Monetary Policy to Fight an Inflationary Gap Monetary Policy in the AS/AD Model** In AS/AD model, monetary policy is seen working primarily through its effect on interest rates. Contractionary Monetary Policy The Fed decreases the money supply. The interest rates go up. As interest rates go up, the quantity of investment goes down. Contractionary Monetary Policy As investment goes down, aggregate demand goes down. Aggregate equilibrium demand and income go down by a multiple of decrease in investment. Contractionary Monetary Policy in the AS/AD Model* Price level M i I Short-run aggregate supply AD0 P0 P1 AD1 Y1 Y0 Real output Y Expansionary Monetary Policy* Price level M i I P1 P0 AD1 AD0 Y0 Y1 Real output Y Monetary Policy in the Circular Flow* Expansionary monetary policy tries to expand the economy by channeling more saving into investment. Contractionary monetary policy tries to reduce inflationary pressures by restricting demand for consumer loans and investment Monetary Policy in the Circular Flow Wages, rents, interest, profits Taxes Households Government borrowing Government Consumptio expenditures Government fiscal policy Firms Investment Savings Financial sector Monetary policy Consumption Exports Imports Interest Rates and Spending Changes in interest rates affect consumer, investor, government, and net export spending. Monetary Stimulus The goal of monetary stimulus is to increase aggregate demand. Aggregate Demand – The total quantity of output demanded at alternative price levels in a given time period, ceteris paribus. Monetary Stimulus The way to increase aggregate demand is to lower interest rates. Investment Lowering interest rates encourages investment due to the lower cost of borrowing. Aggregate Demand The increased investment caused by lower interest rates represents an injection of new spending into the circular flow. Aggregate Demand The increase in investment will kick off multiplier effects and result in an even larger increase in aggregate demand. Price Level (average price) Multiplier Effects Direct impact of increase Investment spending + $200 billion P1 Indirect impact via increased consumption + $600 billion a b AD1 5.6 QE 5.8 AD2 Current price level AD3 6.4 Real GDP ($ trillions per year) Monetary Policy and the Multiplier Aggregate Demand The Fed’s objective of stimulating the economy is achieved in three steps: An increase in the money supply. A reduction in interest rates. An increase in aggregate demand. Monetary Stimulus An increase in the money supply lowers the rate of interest A reduction in the rate of interest stimulates investment More investment increases aggregate demand (including multiplier effects) 6 E2 Demand for money 7 Investment demand 6 Price Level 7 E1 Interest Rate Interest Rate AS AD1 0 g1 g2 Quantity Of Money 0 AD2 I1 I2 Rate Of Investment Income (Output) The Short-Run Determination of the Interest Rate Can you walk through how contractionary monetary policy plays out? Fed shrinks the money supply and… Federal Reserve Policy and the Business Cycle