Reskilling the Workforce
Driving Strategic Change Through Learning
Dave Wilkins
OSA Platform Lead
My Goals Today
Help your career
How? Show you new opportunities to add value
Help you see the big picture
How? Connect your mission to the larger business challenge of talent
Help you see the big picture
How? Connect your mission to the larger talent challenges of the nation
Help you think differently
How? Pose some tough questions about where we’re heading
Natural Disasters
Te c h n o l o g y D i s r u p t i o n
Strategic Shift
How many of you can:
Accurately describe current attrition levels at your company?
Accurately describe attrition for critical roles?
List cost and time-to-hire metrics for critical roles?
List the critical roles at your company?
Describe the key capabilities for each critical role?
Describe the typical career path people follow to get to these roles?
Describe the critical experiences, skills, education for these roles?
Articulate required workforce capabilities next year? Year after?
Articulate company strategy and direction?
EY Top Business Challenges?
#3 – Managing Talent
EY Top Business Challenges?
#3 – Managing Talent
“Nearly 20% report that people with the right
skill sets are simply not available — a factor that
may in part reflect weaknesses in educational
systems. This is a weakness that is likely to get
worse.”
EY Top Business Challenges?
#3 – Managing Talent
“Nearly 20% report that people with the right
skill sets are simply not available — a factor that
may in part reflect weaknesses in educational
systems. This is a weakness that is likely to get
worse.”
Why Skills Shortages?
Aging
Workforces
Smaller
Pipeline
Capability
Mismatch
• Slow growth, negative growth in developed
world
• Faster growth in developing world
• In US and UK growth is fueled through
immigration
• Less developed = more growth
Country
% Growth
Russia
-8%
Japan
-5%
Germany
-4%
Poland
-4%
Italy
-1%
Greece
0%
France
5%
UK
7%
China
7%
Brazil
13%
USA
14%
Mexico
15%
Turkey
17%
India
24%
Nigeria
46%
Population Growth 2010-2020
Aging Workforces Worldwide
Labor Force Participation Rates
But more of the them work more
More older workers = fewer younger
Those older workers who stay in
the workforce do so at the
expense of the young.
When grandma finally retires, we
will have 30 year olds with no
work experience or near useless
work experience.
More older workers = fewer younger
Those older workers who stay in
the workforce do so at the
expense of the young.
When grandma finally retires, we
will have 30 year olds with no
work experience or near useless
work experience.
Younger workers less trained
And we train them less… Ugghh
• OECD study of work-based skills taught in schools in 29 countries
• U.S. ranks dead last
• Wharton School professor Peter Cappelli:
• In 1979, young U.S. workers: average of 2.5 weeks of training / year
• By 1995, average company offered just under 11 hours per year.
• By 2011, Accenture found that only 21% of all U.S. employees had
received *any* employer-provided training in the past five years.
Capability mismatch
“In 2011, when US unemployment exceeded 9
percent, a McKinsey Global Institute survey
found that 30 percent of US companies had
positions open for more than six months that they
could not fill. Despite rising educational
attainment across advanced economies, by
2020, the United States may have 1.5 million
too few workers with college or graduate
degrees and nearly 6 million too many who
have not completed high school.”
Capability mismatch
Up 4.6%
New Jobs
Knowledge
Work
All others
Capability mismatch
Up 4.6%
New Jobs
Knowledge
Work
All others
Nuances of The Great Recession
During the Great Recession, what was the highest level of
unemployment in the US?
What was the highest level for people with a bachelors degree or
higher?
What was it for those with only a high school diploma?
How many recruiters factored this into their strategies?
How recruiters see unemployment…
Jobs I might be interested in… via LinkedIn
Social Media Manager
Requirements:
• 15+ years in senior roles in marketing
• 10+ years of digital marketing
• 5+ years of social media marketing
• Experience with transportation industry a must
• Strong preference given for multi-lingual candidates
• MBA candidates preferred
• Deep expertise in social media with strong personal
brand and large follower networks
Geography mismatch
Structural unemployment
“Firms have jobs, but can’t find appropriate workers.
The workers want to work, but can’t find appropriate
jobs. … Whatever the source, though, it is hard to see
how the Fed can do much to cure this problem.
Monetary stimulus has provided conditions so that
manufacturing plants want to hire new workers. But
the Fed does not have a means to transform
construction workers into manufacturing workers.”
One final wrinkle:
Who costs more: internal or external?
Who performs better?
• External hires aren’t as productive as
internal hires; new research suggests
that it takes 2 years to get “up to speed”
• External hires average shorter tenures
than internal hires
• External hires average lower
performance reviews
• Hiring outside = risk to top performers
and high potentials
• Why?
• External hires aren’t as productive as
internal hires; new research suggests
that it takes 2 years to get “up to speed”
• External hires average shorter tenures
than internal hires
• External hires average lower
performance reviews
• Hiring outside = risk to top performers
and high potentials
• “Lack of career development” is #1
reason for dysfunctional turnover
• “Training and development
opportunity” is #1 driver of employee
engagement
• “More opportunities to do what I do
best” is #1 driver of employee
engagement
• External hires aren’t as productive as
internal hires; new research suggests
that it takes 2 years to get “up to speed”
• External hires average shorter tenures
than internal hires
• External hires average lower
performance reviews
• Hiring outside = risk to top performers
and high potentials
• “Lack of career development” is #1
reason for dysfunctional turnover
• “Training and development
opportunity” is #1 driver of employee
engagement
• “More opportunities to do what I do
best” is #1 driver of employee
engagement
OK, so firms can’t find critical talent
But they spend crazy money searching
Only to pay more for less,
And this problem is likely to get worse…
What does this mean to you?
“Companies should forecast, on a job family basis, how
their current workforce will develop over the next 5, 10,
and 15 years – taking into account expected recruitment,
retirement, and retention. Next, companies should
simulate different strategic scenarios to determine the
number and type of human resources that their business
will demand on a job family level over the same period.
Once companies calculate the difference between their
expected demand for and supply of labor, they should
take dedicated steps to address anticipated shortfalls and
surpluses. These steps include redeploying surplus
resources to critical functions that are being drained of
human resources, boosting internal training so that the
current workforce can adapt and shift as needed, or even
attracting and retaining retired or semi retired workers in
areas with identified future shortfalls.”
redeploying surplus resources to critical
functions that are being drained of human
resources
How do you know who to move?
And how will they get productive?
or even attracting and retaining retired or
semi retired workers in areas with identified
future shortfalls
And how do they get back up to speed?
boosting internal training so that the current
workforce can adapt and shift as needed
How do you identify the best candidates?
And how will do you develop new capabilities?
The new talent landscape
Build?
Buy?
Rent?
Virtualize?
Move people around?
And how do they get back up to speed?
The ability to deliver *capability*
boosting
internalshock
training so that the current
in response
to strategic
can adapt
and marketworkforce
opportunities
willand
be shift as needed
a key business differentiator.
And how will do you develop new capabilities?
THE LEARNING CONNECTION
Addressing the problem
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Know the team you have
Know the team you need
Invest in long-term capability development
Empower workers to do this themselves
Switch your default to hiring from within
(1)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Know Your Team
Job history
Work experience prior to current role
Expertise developed outside of work
Self-identified expertise & peer-identified expertise
Career aspirations
Top performers and high potentials
Flight risk
Retirement plans
Top performer data is ugly
•
•
•
•
•
•
80% of companies don’t know who is a flight risk.
78% of companies don’t know who is on a succession plan.
80% of companies don’t know who has a career path.
65% of companies don’t know much about who they’re retaining.
84% of companies don’t if their development plans are working.
65% of companies don’t know much about Hi-Po’s.
Know the people you have
48%
say that their skills go
unnoticed
feel that their work history &
experiences are not leveraged
by their employer
75%
(2) Here to There
• Understand the capability requirements for the business
– New strategic plans?
– Geographic expansion?
• Map the gaps: what are you missing in order to meet objectives
• Assess the best approach to fill-in gaps
– Hire, contract, outsource
– Skill, knowledge, capability development
– Talent transfer – talent mobility
– Virtualize
Workforce Data – What do we know
(3) Long-term Roadmap
•
•
•
•
•
•
What is the relationship between various roles?
Which roles commonly lead to which other roles?
What paths did top performers take?
What skills, role assignments, knowledge are required?
Which roles share similar requirements – job families?
For critical and strategic roles, we need to think differently:
– Use paradigms of leadership development, cohorts and stages
– Use paradigms of pilot and surgeon training
– Scaffolding models, coupled with social models
Competencies are well-established
• 75% of companies use job / role
competencies for selection & promotion
• Over half of organizations tie
competencies to career planning
• 91% report training improvements when
training is tied to competencies
The next step is to think about building capability. Capability is about
business execution and implies not just competency, but experience,
judgment, decision-making. You *develop* capability over time.
(4) Empower the Team
• Employees need to own their own career development
– Make sure it’s easier to move in your company than leave it
– Enable personal gap assessment between current skills and
capabilities and desired career objectives
• Map capability requirements to training and learning
interventions
– Formal content: WBT, classes, video, documents
– Social content: CoP, discussions, expert location, wikis
– Action learning: related roles, activities, stretch assignments
• Involve the team in defining needs and interventions
(5) Switch Your Default
• External hiring costs 18-20% more than internal hiring
• External hires perform worse on performance evals for 24
months
• High external hiring rates increase risk to existing team
– #1 reason for dysfunctional turnover in mature economies?
Lack of career opportunities
– #1 contributor to job satisfaction? “more opportunities to do what I
do best,” “career development opportunities and training” (tie)
• Hiring from within means lower cost to new hires, better
performance, higher engagement, and reduced turnover
Strategic Implications for You
47
Your strategic role
• Senior leaders are thinking about talent; it’s a key concern
• Agility is also top of mind due to recent and current world events
– Demographic shifts will increase this focus in coming years
– Competitive global pressures will increase this focus
– Educational shortfalls will increase this focus
• Get ahead of this need by focusing of capabilities-driven learning
programs
– Understand strategic direction for the future
– Map the gaps
– Develop a plan
– Earn your seat