Dr Joel Thomas
Resident Medical Officer
Royal Brisbane & Women’s Hospital
Supervisor: Dr Anthony Lynham (OMS)

• Interpersonal violence is prevalent amidst socialising patterns in Australia 1
• Maxillofacial trauma is a common emergency department presentation of interpersonal violence
• Other factors contributing to interpersonal violence?
–
Motivated
The relationship between interpersonal violence and weather has been well established internationally 2
– Routine Theory of Crime 3
CRIME
Absence
Suitable of Capable
Target
Guardian

• To ascertain whether climatic variations and temporal factors have a relationship with the number of assaults resulting in maxillofacial trauma

• Design:
– Retrospective descriptive single-sample survey
• Population:
– Trauma referrals to the RBWH Maxillofacial Surgery Department over
12 months
• Meteorological Data:
– Recorded at the Brisbane weather station 4
– Daily rainfall, max. and min. temperatures, daily solar exposure
• Statistical Analysis:
– Poisson Regression Analysis

• 389 assault referrals with confirmed maxillofacial trauma
– Male 89.7%, Female 10.3%
– 34.4% were mandibular fractures
• Average age 30.03 years (mode 21 years)
• Alcohol intake admitted to in 67.4% of the assault victims
– Undisclosed or not collected in a further 8.9%
• Increased assault associated with rain & increased daily solar exposure (p<0.05)
• Increased assault on weekends & public holidays (p<0.001 &
<0.05 respectively)

Number of Assaults
Resulting in
Maxillofacial Trauma
Comparison of Public Holiday Assault Data to Average Daily Assault Data

• Age and gender distribution of assault and correlation with weekends and public holidays as expected 5
• Unexpected correlation of assault with rain
– Routine Theory of Crime: More targets within a confined indoor space
Motivated
Offender
– Potentially confounded by unusual rainfall pattern in 2011
Suitable
Targets
Absence of Capable
Guardian

(continued)
• No association observed between temperature and season
− International models may not apply due to significant climatic differences to Australia
• Unable to explain the variable correlation of assault with solar exposure
• Not all interpersonal violence results maxillofacial trauma, limiting available data

• Potential for increased awareness amongst
Australian Police and Hospital Emergency
Departments
– Modification of resource allocation and response protocols in accordance with data

1.
Australian Institute of Criminology. Key issues in alcohol-related violence. Research in Practice No. 4 [PDF on Internet]. Canberra: AIC 2009. Available at: http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/rip/1-10/04.aspx
(Accessed May 2012).
2.
Boyanowski E. Violence and aggression in the heat of passion and in cold blood. The Ecs-TC syndrome. Int J
Law Psychiatry.
1999;22:257-71
3.
Cohen LE, Felson M. Social Change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. Am Sociol Rev.
1979;44:588-608.
4.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. Climate data online. Canberra: Commonwealth of
Australia 2012. Available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/index.shtml (Accessed May 2012).
5.
Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Booze-related violence to peak on Australia Day. ABC News 2012.
Available at: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-24/booze-violence-to-peak-on-australia-day/3789270
(Accessed April 2012).