Theories of War Causation

Theories of War Causation

Schools & Variants

Johan M.G. van der Dennen


• Demographic-Ecological School



• Economic School



• Economic School

• Imperialism School



• Economic School


• Political-Strategic School



• Economic School



• (Social)-Psychological School



• Economic School



• (Social)-Psychological School

• Apologetic School





– Population pressure (Plato) / ‘Lebensraum’




– Demographic relaxation / Filicide (Bouthoul)





– Lateral pressure / distribution of resources





– Lateral pressure / distribution of resources

– Geopolitical variant (Haushofer)


• Economic School

(Material gain / pleonexia)


• Economic School


– Mercantilists


• Economic School


– Mercantilists

– Physiocrats / Manchester School / Liberals


• Economic School


– Mercantilists


– Marxists


• Economic School


– Mercantilists


– Marxists

– Merchants of death / War-profiteering / Scandal


• Economic School


– Mercantilists


– Marxists

– Merchants of death / War-profiteering / Scandal

– Military-industrial(-academic) complex



(Material & territorial gain)




– Conservative variant





– Liberal variant (Hobson)






– Marxist-Leninist / Revisionist / Neo-Marxist






– Marxist-Leninist / Revisionist / Neo-Marxist

– Militarist variant (Schumpeter)



(Power)



(Power)

– ‘Ultima ratio’ / Cost-benefit calculus



(Power)


• Machiavelli • Hobbes • Clausewitz • Realists

(Morgenthau, Waltz) • Expected utility theory

(Bueno de Mesquita) • Blainey • Stoessinger



(Power)





– Balance of power / parity / preponderance



(Power)






• Polarity • Deterrence / Security dilemma • Arms races



(Power)







– Power transition theory and hegemonic war



(Power)







– Power transition theory and hegemonic war

– Rank disequilibrium theory (Galtung)


• (Social-)Psychological School (Bête humaine)



– Human nature / bête humaine / passions-reason




• Thucydides (fear) • Hobbes: ‘competition, diffidence, glory’





– Great men / Evil men (personified cataclysmic)






– National character / (Mass) psychopathology







– Minds of Men variant: misperception & comm.








– Instinctivist variants (pugnacity / ‘Todestrieb’)

• Herd instincts • aggressive instincts • adventurism










– Frustration-aggression displacement variant










– Frustration-aggression displacement variant

– Obedience / Sociality / Group-altruism / Noble


• Apologetic School (war as necessity)



– Metaphysical variant (divine punishment)




– Etatistic variant (Hegel)





– Social Darwinist variant (‘agent of progress’)





– Social Darwinist variant (‘agent of progress’)

– Eschatological variants (‘proletarian paradise’)

The phalanx: the major invention of ‘civilized’ warfare

Raiding (dawn attack) by a Florida Indian tribe (de Bry, ± 1590)

Pitched battle type of intergroup agonistic behavior in primates generally, and possibly even in social and group territorial mammals generally (social carnivores, dolphins, etc.).

‘Lethal male raiding’ in the common ancestor of both humans and chimpanzees 6 8 mya (Wrangham’s synapomorphy or shared derived trait).

‘Lethal male raiding’ as independently evolved in both humans and chimpanzees (implied by van der Dennen)

THE (CHRONO)LOGICALLY POSSIBLE

THEORETICAL VIEWS ON THE EVOLUTION

OF WAR AS PITCHED BATTLE AND RAIDING

War in both humans (Hu) and chimpanzees

(Chi) as relatively recent ‘cultural inventions’

Hu Chi Bo

Differences between battle and raid

BATTLE RAID guerra (real war), combat / pitched battle fight/flight-like also known as motivationally guerrilla (little war) predation-like approx. balance of power very common in social carnivores and primates females and males

(much less so in humans) relatively uncommon among foraging peoples (if present often ritualized) precipitated by occurrence in animals confined to panids and hominids sex of the belligerents exclusively male occurrence in

'primitive' societies

Imbalance of power predominant and most lethal among foraging peoples


BATTLE RAID very common in contemporary warfare

(but less common in future) parallel lines / phalanxes clamor / bluff / intimidation display biomechanical principles impact of mass and speed, encirclement, feigned retreat psychology of the soldier (discipline) occurrence in modern warfare appearance characterized by explained by tactics underlying psychology relatively uncommon in contemporary warfare

(but more common in future) ambush / dawn attack / surprise raid stealth / secrecy tactical requirements (?) hit and run, torching, indiscriminate killing psychology of the warrior (frenzy)


BATTLE RAID too short line

(envelopment), too long line (penetration) chance encounter, failed raid, failed surprise attack ritualization (game-like war) possible reconciliation in principle possible divine ordeal, expiatory combat relatively low but may result in routing and massacre weakness and vulnerability conditioned by logistics, retreat surprise attack as default ritualization?

reconciliation?

no ritualization possible guerre à l'outrance no reconciliation, incessant cycles of retaliation and revenge raiding metaphysical aspects magicoreligious magnet lethality (casualties) relatively low but rapidly accumulating

War Causation: The Evidence

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Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war

Factors increasing the probability of the onset (occurrence/initiation) of war:


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Level of analysis: state


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Power status (major power)


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Factors increasing the probability of the onset (occurrence/initiation) of war

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Power cycle (critical point if major power)


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Alliance (alliance member)


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Alliance (alliance member)

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Borders (number of borders)


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Level of analysis: dyad


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Contiguity/proximity (common border/distance)


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Political systems (absence of joint democracies)


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Economic development (absence of joint advanced economies)


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Static capability balance (parity)


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Dynamic capability balance (unstable: transition)


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Alliance (unbalanced external alliance-tie)


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Alliance (unbalanced external alliance-tie)

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Enduring rivalry


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Level of analysis: region


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Contagion/diffusion (presence of ongoing regional war)


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Level of analysis: system


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Polarity (weak unipolarity/declining leader)


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Unstable hierarchy


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Unstable hierarchy

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Number of borders


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Unstable hierarchy

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Number of borders

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Frequency of civil/revolutionary wars


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Seriousness of war

(magnitude/duration/severity)

Factors increasing the probable seriousness

(magnitude/duration/severity) of war:


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Alliance (high polarization)


– The Correlates of War (COW) Project defines an

'international war' as a military conflict waged between national entities, at least one of which is a state, and that results in at least 1,000 battle-deaths of military personnel.

– War magnitude – the sum of all participating nations' separate months of active involvement in each war

– War duration – the length in months from the inception of the war to its termination

– War severity – total battle deaths of military personnel in each war

• Source: Geller & Singer (1998: 27-28).



Theories of War Causation

Theories of War Causation

Schools & Variants

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Theories of War Causation