California Association of Realtors
GAD Institute
Chris Gosselin
Senior Political Representative
National Association of Realtors
August 19, 2015
Public Still Skeptical On National Outlook
Percentage Responding to Question:
“All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed
in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?”
61%
31%
Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, June 14-18, 2015.
2
Public Outlook for Economy Gradually Improving
Percentage Responding to Question:
“During the next twelve months, do you think that the
nation’s economy will get better or worse?”*
Better
% Better/Worse
Worse
29%
21%
*N.B.: Prior to April 2001, the question was phrased, “Over the past year…”
Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, March 1-5, 2015.
3
Consumers Optimism Improving But Still
Low by Historical Measure
Consumer Confidence Index ® and Consumer Sentiment
Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index®
Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment
past 5 years
Index
Consumer
Confidence = 101.4
Consumer
Sentiment = 96.1
Source: Conference Board, June 2015; Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, June 2015.
4
Public Nearly Split on Obama’s Job Approval
NBC/WSJ’s Presidential Job Approval
Gallup’s Presidential Job Approval
48%
49%
48%
47%
Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, June 14-18, 2015; Gallup.com, June 22-28, 2015.
5
Public Opinion Split on Democratic Party
NBC/WSJ Thermometer: Democratic Party
38%
36%
Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, April 26-30, 2015.
6
Public Holds Negative Opinion of GOP
NBC/WSJ Thermometer: Republican Party
43%
30%
Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, April 26-30, 2015.
7
Share of Self-Described Independents
Grows at Expense of Both Parties
Gallup’s Party Affiliation Survey
Responding to question: “In politics, as of today, do you consider
yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent?”
44%
Independents
28%
Democrats
27%
Republicans
Source: Gallup.com, 2015.
8
Congressional Partisanship Over Time
Margin of Senate Control After Election
88th – 114th Congress
34
36
28
24
16
10
14
24
18
6
8
6
10
10
12
17
14
6
10
11
10
5
0
2
6
10
10
1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Senate.gov, 2014; Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives, 2014; CNN, 2014.
9
SD: Mike Rounds (R),
despite seeing outside
money pour in against him at
the last minute after reports
of a scandal during his time
as governor, won an easy
victory over Rick Weiland
(D) and former Sen. Larry
Pressler (I)
GOP Sweeps Competitive Races
Republican Victories
MT
ND
OR
AK: Dan Sullivan
(R) beat Sen. Mark
Begich (D) in a close
race that took an
addition week to
count the votes
MI
PA
IL
CO
KS
AZ
NM
OK
TX
OH
IN
WV
VA
MO
KY
AR
SC
AL
GA
IA: Joni Ernst (R)
handily won election
over gaffe-prone Rep.
Bruce Braley (D) in
the race for Sen. Tom
Harkin (D)’s seat
FL
AR: Tom Cotton (R)
easily defeated Sen. Mark
Pryor, helping to complete
Arkansas’ transformation
into a Republican
stronghold
DE
MD
VA: Mark Warner
(D) defeated Ed
Gillespie (R) in an
unexpectedly close race
that almost went to a
recount
NC: Thom Tillis (R)
won a slim upset victory
over Kay Hagan (D)
LA
HI
KS: Sen. Roberts (R),
after facing bad polling
numbers earlier this
summer, brought in a
team of top-tier
Republican strategists
and won re-election by a
wide margin over Greg
Orman (I)
NJ
MA
RI
NC
TN
MS
AK
CT
IA
NE
CA
NH
NY
WY
UT
ME
VT
MN
Recommendations
and
SDdetected threats WI
ID
NV
NH: Sen.
Shaheen (D) held
off a national tide
against Democrats,
holding on to
defeat former
Massachusetts Sen.
Scott Brown (R)
MI: Gary Peters (D) maintained Democratic
control of retiring Sen. Carl Levin’s seat
against Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn
Land (R)
WA
CO: Cory Gardner
(R) defeated Sen.
Mark Udall easily after
Udall ran a poor onenote campaign on
reproductive health
that voters didn’t
engage with
Democratic Victories
LA: Bill Cassidy (R) beat
Sen. Landrieu (D) in a
runoff election announced
on December 6, 2014
KY: Sen. McConnell
(R) handily defeated
Alison Grimes (D) on his
way to becoming majority
leader
GA: David Perdue (R) avoided a
runoff, blowing out former nonprofit CEO Michelle Nunn
Source: National Journal Research 2014; Associated Press Election Results, 2014; Scott Bland, Andrea Drusch, and Alex Roarty, “Hotline’s Senate Race Rankings: Republicans On The Brink,” National Journal’s Hotline,
October 13, 2014.
Republicans Hold Majority of Senate Seats
Up For Election in 2016
2016 U.S. Senate Elections by Incumbent Party
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic-Held Seats
Open Seats
No Election in 2016
WA
MT
ND
VT
OR
MN
ID
WY
NV
Recommendations
and
SD
WI
detected threats
CO
CA
AZ
IL
KS
OK
NM
MO
TX
OH
IN
WV
VA
KY
NJ
DE
MD
NC
TN
AR
SC
MS
AK
MI
PA
UT
NH
MA
CT RI
NY
IA
NE
ME
AL
GA
LA
HI
FL
Analysis
• The U.S. Senate elections in 2016 feature 22 seats with Republican incumbents, 7 seats with Democratic incumbents, and 5 open seats
• The five open seats are in the Democratic strongholds of California and Maryland, Republican-leaning Indiana, and the swing states of
Nevada and Florida
Source: National Journal Research, 2015.
Republicans Make Significant Gains in House
House Seats Gained/Held in the 2014 Midterm Elections
Democratic Hold
Democratic Gain
Republican Gain
Republican Hold
Democrats: 188
Republicans: 247
Independents: 0
Undecided:
0
AK
Analysis
Republicans were expected to keep control of the House, but strong performances in tossup districts and a handful of wins in states that
were expected to lean Democratic mean that the new GOP majority is even larger than expected
Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times.
Republicans Win Record Majority in House
Control of the 114th House (2015-2017)
Democratic
Republican
Democrats: 188
Republicans: 247
Independents: 0
Undecided:
0
AK
Analysis
• Republicans won a total of 247 seats in the House, their largest majority since 1928
• An expanded GOP majority in the House means that Speaker Boehner will have an easier time passing legislation in the House
without Democratic support, and Republicans will also have an easier time holding on to their majority in future elections
Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times.
In House, Fewer “Swing” Seats, More Polarization
Cook Political Report Rates the Districts
House Makeup by Cook Partisan Vote Index
Number
of Seats
Analysis
• According to the Cook Partisan Vote Index, the number of swing seats in the House has dropped 45%, from 164 in 1998 to 90 in
2014
• Fewer swing seats means more polarization in Congress
• As district populations grow increasingly liberal or conservative, incumbents fear radical primary challengers
Source: Cook Political Report, 2015.
14
Incumbent Party Win Margin
100.0%
80.0%
60.0%
40.0%
15 Wins < 5%
18 Wins Between 5 - 10%
20.0%
317 Races Won by 20%+
0.0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-20.0%
21 Incumbent Party Losses
(15 Losses, 6 Open Seat Takeovers)
-40.0%
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
-10.0%
Pete Aguilar
Ami Bera
Jim Costa
Julia Brownley
Scott Peters
Lois Capps
Mike Honda
Jerry McNerney
John Garamendi
Steve Knight
Raul Ruiz
Alan Lowenthal
Jeff Denham
Mark Takano
David Valadao
Susan Davis
Linda Sanchez
Ted Lieu
Judy Chu
Grace Napolitano
Loretta Sanchez
Darrell Issa
Tom McClintock
Doug LaMalfa
Lucille Roybal-Allard
Norma Torres
Dana Rohrabacher
Mimi Walters
Brad Sherman
Ken Calvert
Mark DeSaulnier
Zoe Lofgren
Paul Cook
Anna Eshoo
Edward Royce
Juan Vargas
Eric Swallwell
Maxine Waters
Duncan Hunter
Devin Nunes
Doris Matsui
Xavier Becerra
Tony Cardenas
Jared Huffman
Kevin McCarthy
Sam Farr
Mike Thompson
Adam Schiff
Jackie Speier
Nancy Pelosi
Karen Bass
Janice Hahn
Barbara Lee
90.0%
California Incumbent Party Win Margin
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
32 races won by more than 20%
50.0%
3 races won by 5% -10%
40.0%
7 races won by <5%
30.0%
1 incumbent party loss
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
Pete Aguilar
Jim Costa
Maxine Waters
Linda Sanchez
Grace Napolitano
Jerry McNerney
Mark Takano
Alan Lowenthal
Zoe Lofgren
Judy Chu
Julia Brownley
Lois Capps
Tony Cardenas
Susan Davis
John Garamendi
Loretta Sanchez
Ted Lieu
Nancy Pelosi
Anna Eshoo
Mark DeSaulnier
Karen Bass
Ami Bera
Scott Peters
Juan Vargas
Brad Sherman
Barbara Lee
Eric Swallwell
Janice Hahn
Jackie Speier
Doris Matsui
Raul Ruiz
Sam Farr
Doug LaMalfa
Jared Huffman
Adam Schiff
Mike Thompson
Darrell Issa
Jeff Denham
Ken Calvert
Dana Rohrabacher
Mimi Walters
Duncan Hunter
Paul Cook
Kevin McCarthy
David Valadao
Devin Nunes
Edward Royce
40.0%
California Congressional Same-Party
Presidential Outperformance
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
Did much worse than same-party 2012 presidential candidate
0.0%
Did much better than same-party 2012 presidential candidate
$6,000,000
Total amount spent by candidates in CA races won by <5%
$5,000,000
$4,000,000
$3,000,000
$2,000,000
$1,000,000
$0
12.00%
Win Margin in Competitive CA Districts, 2012-2014
10.20%
10.00%
9.60%
9.40%
8.00%
6.00%
4.30%
4.00%
4.00%
3.30%
3.20%
2.00%
2.00% 1.60%
1.00%
0.90%
0.40%
0.00%
2012 2014
Bera
2012 2014
McNerney
2012 2014
2012 2014
Costa
Capps
2012 2014
Brownley
2012 2014
Peters
Doug LaMalfa
Sam Farr
David Valadao
Jim Costa
Devin Nunes
Scott Peters
Ami Bera
Lois Capps
Anna Eshoo
John Garamendi
Jackie Speier
Jared Huffman
Doris Matsui
Duncan Hunter
Julia Brownley
Raul Ruiz
Darrell Issa
Nancy Pelosi
Paul Cook
Mike Thompson
Mark DeSaulnier
Barbara Lee
Kevin McCarthy
Mike Honda
Pete Aguilar
Juan Vargas
Ted Lieu
Susan Davis
Tom McClintock
Brad Sherman
Dana Rohrabacher
Eric Swallwell
Loretta Sanchez
Zoe Lofgren
Jeff Denham
Jerry McNerney
Alan Lowenthal
Mimi Walters
Judy Chu
Karen Bass
Ken Calvert
Maxine Waters
Edward Royce
Adam Schiff
Tony Cardenas
Steve Knight
Xavier Becerra
Mark Takano
Linda Sanchez
Grace Napolitano
Janice Hahn
Norma Torres
Lucille Roybal-Allard
60%
Drop in Turnout by CD from 2012 to 2014
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Dissecting the Gridlock
Categorizing the Congress
• Democrats divide along a
left/right spectrum
•
•
•
•
•
Keystone Pipeline
Progressive Caucus Budget
Mortgage Choice Act
Trade Promotion Authority
Removal of U.S. Forces from
Syria & Iraq
• Republicans divide along an
establishment/anti-establishment
spectrum
• Election of the Speaker
• Homeland Security
Appropriations
• Federal Support for Amtrak
• Medicare Access & CHIP
Reauthorization
• Trade Promotion Authority
House Democratic Factions
Becerra
Chu
Cardenas
Hahn
Honda
Huffman
Lee
Lofgren
Lowenthal
Matsui
Napolitano
Roybal-Allard
Linda Sanchez
Takano
Bass
Capps
Farr
Lieu
McNerney
Pelosi
Schiff
Swalwell
Torres
Waters
Brownley
Garamendi
Speier
Thompon
Vargas
Aguilar
Bera
Davis
Sherman
Peters
Costa
House Republican Factions
Calvert
McCarthy
Nunes
Valadao
Denham
Royce
Cook
Issa
Knight
LaMalfa
Hunter
McClintock
Rohrabacher
RPAC Funding Process
Funds available without CREPAC / RPAC trustee approval:
• In-State Funds - $1,000 for use in home district by FPC
– Contact Lisa Edwards at CAR to request in-state funds
– 2 week request deadline
– $500 minimum
– Check is sent to CAR, then to FPC for delivery
• DC Funds – $2,000 for Jerry Giovaniello to use to attend events in DC
RPAC Funding Process
Remaining funds subject to trustee approval (incumbents):
CREPAC Trustees Evaluate Incumbent’s Record
CREPAC Requests Funds from RPAC
(Up to $5,000 total per election primary/general)
RPAC Approves CREPAC Requests
RPAC FedEx’s Check to CAR for delivery to FPC
RPAC Funding Process – Open Seats
Candidate Interviews
Candidate DC
Meetings
LCRC Meetings
Candidate
Questionnaire
Evaluation of
state/local record
CREPAC Requests Funds from RPAC
Typically $5,000 per election for open seat candidates
RPAC Approves CREPAC Request
RPAC FedEx’s Check to CAR for delivery to FPC
Additional Support for Federal Candidates
• Opportunity Races
– Levels 1-3
• Independent Expenditures
• President’s Circle
Opportunity Races 2014
California Members with outstanding FPC Funds
Doug LaMalfa
John Garamendi
Mike Thompson
Jerry McNerney
Jackie Speier
Eric Swalwell
Jim Costa
Mike Honda
Anna Eshoo
Sam Farr
Devin Nunes
Julia Brownley
Tony Cardenas
Grace Napolitano
Ted Lieu
Xavier Becerra
Raul Ruiz
Ed Royce
Maxine Waters
Alan Lowenthal
Darrell Issa
Duncan Hunter
Juan Vargas
Cook Political Report Race Ratings
$1,800,000
$1,600,000
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$0
Cash on Hand as of June 30 Filing Period
Contact Information:
Chris Gosselin
Senior Political Representative
National Association of REALTORS®
(202) 383-7516
cgosselin@realtors.org
Twitter: @cbgosselin