ECON 496 Seminar in Economics İzmir University of Economics Spring 2015 SEMINAR IN ECONOMICS Objectives : The primary objective of this course is to have you conduct an effective economic anaysis using an appropriate economic framework and adequate evidential support, and then clearly present that analysis both orally and in writing. ECON 496 focuses on students conducting their own economic anaysis, the results of which are then presented orally and in writting. The research process : Each student develops an economic question, which is anaysed using an apprioriate economic framework and evidentary support. 1. Determining a topic : In selecting a topic, it is crucial that you utilize economic theories and models that you have already studied as you will not have time to learn new theory and complete your analysis in the one-semester . You will develop a specific question to address, you will answer that question by using appropriate economic analytical frameworks and metdods to produce your own analysis and results. The key point here is that your research must reflect the systematic use of economic frameworks, methods, and evidence in support of your research question. 2. Developing research question : Your next task will be to develop a feasible research question from your topic of interest. You must focus these issues at this step : What economic concepts and theories can be used to analze my question ? What economic anaytical framework will help me evaluate my question ? What research have other economists done on this question, and how might it inform the analysis of my question ? What evidentiary support is needed to answer my question effectively ? 3. Determining an economic framework : As you focus in on a workable research question, you will also need to determine what economic framework you will use to analyse your question. You need to determine how economists analyse, in an organised and systematic way, the type of question you are asking 4. determining appropriate support for your research question : You next need to consider what evidentiary support you will need to address your question. Assignment Details Assignment 1: Proposal (due to March 19th) Requirements for project proposal: The proposal should be 3-5 pages, typed, numbered, stapled and proofread. Please cite all your sources carefully. The proposal should include: Title page: (not part of the page limit) with proposed title, name, date, affliation. Introduction: the introduction should include the thesis statement, background and motivation. Please draw on your topic discussion assignment. If you do not have a thesis statement yet, pose a question on the topic you are examining. When you answer that question (as you work on your paper through the semester) you will have a thesis statement. Mini literature review: discuss two articles (peer reviewed journal articles only) that relate to your paper. Include a brief description of the main point of these articles as they relate to your paper. In this review you should also link your own work to this literature i.e. you should show how these sources inform your work. Please note: the articles do not have to be econometric work, but if they are and you are using another researchers model then you may want to leave this article out of your literature review section and include it in the model specification section (discussed below). Model specification: you will need to specify and discuss the model. You must first write out the model. For example, if you are researching the factors that affect consumption and your hypothesis is that GDP and wealth affect consumption positively and interest rate has a negative impact on consumption, then your model would be written as follows: cons = f[GDP;wealth; int] or cons = β0 + β1GDP + β2 wealth + β3 int where, cons =consumption, GDP = gross domestic product, wealth = wealth, and int= rate of interest. If you are using the second formulation, you should make the relationship between the variables clear (see below). Note: it is customary to have addition signs for all variables in the equation and then indicate if β is positive or negative. Model Discussion: Your discussion should include the following: (a) Motivation for independent variables: this means that you must explain why each independent variable is important in determining the dependent variable. The easiest way to motivate the variable is through the literature. For some papers there may not be an empirical model that can be adopted. In that case you would have to formulate your own arguments as to why these variables should be included in the model. In either case, you should have a clear argument that stands up to scrutiny. (b) Explanation of variables: you need to explain relevant information about the variables. For example, in the model above, you would need to discuss if your focus is on long- term or short-term interest rates. Please note: your discussion should be focused on the theoretical model and not on the data that you are using. Description of the data is a separate section (discussed below). (c) Discussion of expected signs of the coeffcients : you must provide theoretical support for why you expect the signs of the coeffcients to be positive, negative or ambiguous. Again, you may want to draw on the literature to help you make your argument. (d) Description of the data : in this section you should write a narrative of the data you use. Please include: (e) Source of data : if you have used data from multiple sources, all of them should be listed with a clear discussion of what data was obtained from each of these sources. (f) Type of data : is the data time series, cross section or pooled. Be sure to include the time period of study including the interval of data (i.e., annual, monthly) for time series data or of the cross section (such as states in the U.S.) for cross-sectional data. For pooled data you would have to include both pieces of information. (g) Describe the data : for example in the model specified earlier you would need to explain which interest rate you are using (federal funds rate or prime rate etc.). (h) One of the main concerns in doing a research project is data availability. So make sure you have the data before you commit to a topic. Include copies of data as an appendix to your proposal. (i) Bibliograhy : you need complete citations of all your sources. Your _nal paper should have at least ten sources and at least six should be journal articles. The rest may be books (including your text), newspaper articles (New York Times etc.) or magazines (Economist etc.). No internet sources are acceptable unless they are data or organization(IMF.org etc.) websites. Assignment 2: 1st Draft of Your Paper (Due to April 30th) After you receive feedback for your proposal, you expected to make the relevant changes accordingly and add the results of your regression analysis to your paper. Regression Analysis: Please note: although you may run several regressions, only submit one of them. The analysis should be typed, numbered, stapled and proofread. There is no page limit, but I expect this assignment to be 3- 4 pages long. Please cite all your sources carefully. Your submission should include: A short statement of the question: please draw from your topic discussion and proposal for this section. Model specification : please draw from your proposal for this section Presentation of results : I recommend using a table for presentation of results. The table should include the name of the variables, coeffcients (numbers), t-statistics and significance. Analysis of results. Analysis of results includes: Discussion of 2, and -statistic. Discussion of signs and significance of coeffcients. Be sure to include the critical t- statistic (level of significance etc.) so that the reader can compare the computed t- statistics for each variable with the critical value. Discussion of the meaning of coeffcients. For example if one of your coeffcients is 0.45, explain to the reader what this number means and whether this number is reasonable. If the magnitude of the coeffcient is unreasonable (based on your hypothesis) reconcile this issue for the reader. Brief discussion of whether this regression will enable you to answer the question you posed. If not, discuss how you will change the model to allow you address your thesis. Submit the EVIEWS (or other package) print out (as an appendix) Assignment 3: Final written paper (Due to May 8th) At the end of semester, you will bring your research project to an end. Your paper will begin with your final thesis clearly stated. You will follow this with a discusion of the analytical framework and evidentary support used to evaluate your thesis and a report of your research findings. Your paper will conclude with an evaluation of your thesis in the light of your research results. The title page of the final paper is to contain the paper’s title, your name, the course number, and the due date The next page is to contain the title and abstract of your paper The third page will contain the table of contents The following pages will contain the text of your paper All tables, charts, graphs, or other illustrations are to be clearly and correctly labeled. If possible, incorporate these elements into the body of your paper. If you do not know how to do this, then put each illustration on a separate page that follows the text page where the first reference to the illustration is made. Multiple charts, graphs, or other illustrations are to be alphabetically identified. Tables are to be typed and numerically identified (i.e. Table 1, Table 2, etc.). In the text references should be indicated by giving the author’s name and the year of publication (with page references where necessary) : …officials argued that domestic political issues were not the business of the IMF (Williamson, 1983, 45) A complete bibliography of all relevant sources consulted must be included at the end of the paper, following any endnotes. Please note that you are doing a bibliography and not a list of sources; consequently you will need to include all relevant sources you used in your research project even if you do not cite these sources in the body of your paper. References should be cited as follows: Books Scott, J. (1985), Weapons of the Weak, New Haven: Yale University Press Articles Baumol, W.J. (1986), “Productivity Growth, Convergence and Welfare”, American Economic Review, 76, 1072-82 Frieden, J. (1995), “Capital Politcs:Creditors and International Political Economy, In International Political Economy, edited by D.Lake, 282-98, New York: St Martin Press. Course Evaluation: 20 % course portfolio (all drafts submitted to the professor) 30 % formal oral presentation 50% final paper “LATE WORK WILL NOT BE ACCEPTED”