The Future of Work:
Overview Framing
Working Poor Families Project Policy Academy
June 4-5, 2015
Maureen Conway and Vickie Choitz
Agenda for Session
• Welcome, introductions and overview of
Policy Academy
• Preview “What Do You Want to Learn”
exercise
• Future of labor market demand and supply
• Shifts in societal values
• “Future of Work” framework
Objectives
Participants will gain a mental framework for
understanding and discussing the various issues under the
broad and multi-dimensional “future of work” concept.
Participants will improve their understanding of 3 key
areas concerning the future of work.
Participants will learn about a range of state policy topics
concerning the future of work and discuss short- and longterm policy options.
FUTURE OF LABOR MARKET
DEMAND AND SUPPLY
% of Job Growth by Industry
April 2014-April 2015
15% in goods producing sectors
Mining and logging
Construction
87% of Leis&Hosp
= food & drinking
est’s
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation, and utilities
16% of
Ed&Health
in hospitals;
11% in
home
health &
LTC
53% of T,
T&U =
Retail
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Education and health services
50% of Prof&Biz
Serv = Admin &
Waste Servs
83% in service sectors
Information
Leisure and hospitality
Other services
Government
Source: BLS Employment Situation Summary, April 2015
Proportion of Jobs by Required
Level of Education
2022
2012
34%
Any postsec ed
35%
HS or less
66%
65%
Any post-sec
ed
HS or less
Source: U.S. BLS Employment Projections: 2012-2022 Summary, December 2013
42%
16.6%
41.6%
Other Key Employment
Data and Trends
•
•
•
•
•
Salaried vs. hourly paid
Involuntary part-time employment
Long-term unemployed
Labor market participation rate
Contingent work
Salaried vs. Hourly Workers
• In March 2015, 93% of employed workers
were wage and salary workers (137 million out
of 148 million total workers); the rest were
self-employed or unpaid family workers.
• 56% of employed wage and salaried workers
were paid hourly (77 million out of 137
million).
Labor Force Participation Rates: 1948-2050
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, using BLS data, October 2013
Contingent Workers
Narrow Definition
GAO “Core Contingent”
Broad Definition
Temporary employment
(regardless of work
arrangement); “do not
have an implicit or explicit
contract for ongoing
employment” (BLS)
Lack job stability +
have variable and/or
unpredictable work
schedules
Various non-standard work
arrangements (regardless
of duration)
Can include wage and
salary workers, selfemployed, agency temps,
independent contractors
Includes agency temps,
direct-hire temps, on-call
workers, and day laborers
Includes agency temps, day
laborers, independent
contractors, self-employed,
some part-time workers
1.8%-4.1% total
employment in 2005
7.9% of employed workers
in 2010
40.4% of employed
workers in 2010
BLS, CPS special, 2005
GAO , April 2015
GAO, April 2015
FRAMING THE FUTURE OF WORK
Observed Shifts in Societal Values
• Shifting business risk and workplace
responsibilities onto workers
• Growth in assumption that the market cannot
and should not be regulated; unfettered free
market will produce best outcomes for society
• Lack of confidence in government
• Business culture prioritizing short-term focus and
maximizing shareholder value
 Biggest negative consequences for low-wage
workers
Future of Work
Framework
The role of
technology
Business models,
structures and
decisions
Structure of
income-earning
and benefits
provision
Worker rights and
voice
THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY
Types of Technologies
• Robotics/automation
• IT/computers
• Artificial intelligence/
“smart devices”
How Does Technology Change the
Shape of Work – 4 Questions to Ask
• Does technology eliminate a job(s), i.e., labor
replacement?
• How does technology change how companies
communicate with workers, i.e., scheduling?
• How does technology change the structure of
work?
• How does technology change actual jobs?
Technological Unemployment
Frey and Osborne, 2013
Integration of Workers and Technology
BUSINESS MODELS, STRUCTURES
AND DECISIONS
Trends
• Outsourcing
• Contracting
• Flatter management structures and shorter
tenures  diminished internal career ladders
• Sharing economy
How to Think about Alternative
Business Models
• Profit sharing models
• Ownership structures, i.e., ESOPs
• Governance structures
–By shareholders
–Democratic governance, i.e., workerowned coops, open-book management
• Benefit corporations
Businesses Have Choices
• Company started in 2014 with backing from
Coca-Cola
• Start a company that solves a biz problem
• Offers businesses way to fill short-term
immediate need
For workers…
• Unpredictable hours; unstable incomes
• Competition keeps wages low;
• No benefits
Gas station convenience store chain
• Per ft2 sales are 50% higher than ind. Avg.
• Turnover 13% vs. 59%
• Outperforms in profitability and customer
satisfaction
For workers…
• Substantial proportion of f.t. jobs
• Benefits—vacation, health, retirement
• Ownership options
• Predictable schedules
• Cross-training
STRUCTURE OF INCOME-EARNING
AND BENEFITS PROVISION
• Elements and trends in market-based wages
and benefits
• Elements and trends in publicly-provided
income and benefits
Stagnating Wages…
Even When Productivity Increases
Productivity growth and real hourly compensation growth, nonfarm
business sector, selected periods, 1947–2009
Source: Fleck, Monthly Labor Review, 2011 (BLS data)
Decreasing Employer-Provided
Health Benefits
• In 1979, 43 percent of low-wage workers had
employer-provided health insurance. In 2010,
only 26 percent had health insurance through
their employer.
Source: “Health-insurance Coverage for Low-wage Workers, 1979-2010 and
Beyond,” John Schmitt, Center for Economic and Policy Research and The
Kalmanovitz Initiative on Labor and the Working Poor, Georgetown University,
2012
Retirement Plans for
Low-wage Workers
• Participation employer-based retirement
plans has declined from 52% in 2000 to 45% in
2010.
• In 2010, only 11% of the bottom fifth of
income earners had savings in a retirement
account.
• Many low-wage workers do not earn enough
to contribute anything to a "defined
contribution" plan even if they are covered.
Social Security
• Social Security makes up 50%+ total income for
65% of beneficiary units over age 65. It makes up
90%+ total income for 36% of beneficiary units
over age 65.
• Social Security Trust Funds projected to become
depleted in 2033, 77% of benefits still payable at
that time.
• Proposed reforms bad for low-income workers,
i.e., raising retirement age, across-the-board cuts.
Summary
• Wages stagnant or falling (except for the top)
• Employers reducing benefits (if they were ever
offered or accessible)
• Workers working harder and smarter than
ever (productivity growth)
• Wealth wiped out
• Even those with higher education are falling
behind
Publicly-provided Income and Benefits
• Income: TANF, EITC, a guaranteed income?
• Nutrition benefits: SNAP, WIC
• Child care and early childhood education:
CCDBG, TANF-funded child care, Head Start,
Early Head Start, some ESEA, Home Visiting
• Health care: Medicaid, Affordable Care Act
• People with disabilities: SSI, SSDI
WORKER RIGHTS AND VOICE
Trends in Unionization
• In 2014, union membership in the U.S. included
approximately 11% of wage and salary workers,
down from a peak of almost 35% in 1954.
– Unionization rates among workers in education,
training and library occupations, and protective
service occupations have the highest unionization rate
at over 35%.
– Unionization rates in the private sector have declined
from 16.8% in 1983 to 6.6% in 2014.
– In 2014, median weekly earnings for nonunion
workers were 79% of earnings for union members.
Historic Labor Legislation and
International Standards
• 1935: National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) gives private sector employees
the right to organize into trade unions, encourages collective bargaining
and allows collective action. Creates the National Labor Relations Board.
• 1938: Fair Labor Standards Act establishes first minimum wage and 40hour week.
• 1947: Taft-Hartley Act amends NLRA by adding restrictions on unions
including prohibiting certain kinds of strikes and boycotts, monetary
donations by unions to federal political campaigns and “closed shops” (in
which only union members can be hired). It allowed states to pass “rightto-work” laws that outlaw closed union shops. Today 25 states–mostly
southern and western, although recently some northern ones–have
adopted “right to work” laws.
• 1948: The United Nations General Assembly adopts the Universal
Declaration of Human Rights; Article 23 states that everyone has the right
to form and to join trade unions.
“Alt-Labor”
• Nonunion worker organizations, such as
worker centers and worker alliances
• Growth of worker centers:
– 1992: <5
– 2007: 160+ in 80 cities, towns, rural areas
– 2013: 200+
• Examples: