Group Member Names (Max 3):
American Government
Mr. Bekemeyer
Trends in Presidential Primaries and Caucuses
Instructions: Choose a recorder for the group. Use this answer document to respond to the questions.
Read the “Nomination Game Data” as a group and discuss the questions together before your recorder
responds. You only need to turn-in one document per group, however for examination purposes, each
group member may want an individual copy.
Part 1 – Delegate Selection Methods
1.
What is a delegate? What does a delegate do?
2.
Who designs the rules/systems for nominating presidential candidates at the state level?
3.
Describe caucus/convention and primary systems. Which of the two systems do you think is
more democratic? Why?
4.
Describe “open,” “closed” and “modified” rules for voter participation in primaries and
caucuses. Which is more common (you will need to access the data in part 2 of the packet to
answer this question)?
5.
Which of the three systems above do you think is more democratic? Why?
6.
Describe the difference in likely outcome between open and closed contests.
7.
Why might someone support an open primary or caucus? A closed primary or caucus? A
modified primary or caucus?
Part 2 – Allocation of State Delegates Following Primaries and Caucuses
8.
Describe three systems for allotting pledged delegates to candidates in primaries and caucuses.
9.
Brainstorm arguments in favor of and against each of the systems.
10.
Which of the three systems might be most beneficial to a candidate who has little name
recognition at the beginning of the primary season? Why?
11.
Why might a state choose to adopt the winner-take-all method of allocating delegates?
12.
Examine the tables illustrating Republican and Democratic delegate method selections in 2012.
13.
a.
What kind of delegate selection system is more common in the Republican Party than in
the Democratic Party?
b.
Speculate as to why the two major parties might gravitate toward different presidential
nominating systems.
Examine the 2008 and 2012 Republican nomination contest results by state. John McCain won
the nomination in 2008, while Mitt Romney won in 2012.
a.
What change do you notice in the pledged delegate allocation methods adopted by the
states with contests in January, February and March between 2008 and 2012?
b.
Which of the two candidates amassed the majority of pledged delegates earlier in the
calendar?
In what way do you think changes in the delegate allocation system may have been
responsible for that?
c.
14.
Read about the “2012 Republican Primary Delegate Rules Changes.” Why did the Republicans
change their rules for the presidential nomination contests in 2012?
15.
Read about the McGovern Fraser Commission.
16.
a.
Describe the rationale behind establishing the McGovern Fraser Commission.
b.
What were the reforms suggested by the commission?
c.
In what ways did these reforms democratize the presidential nomination process in the
Democratic party?
d.
How did the reforms impact the Republican party?
e.
Who are superdelegates? Why might it be argued that the creation of superdelegates
undermined the spirit of the McGovern Fraser Commission reforms?
Examine the “Four Eras of Presidential Nomination Systems.” What is/was the most democratic
era of the presidential nomination system? Explain.
Part 3 – Nomination Contest Voter Turnout and Demographics
17.
Voter turnout is the percentage of eligible voters who cast their ballot in an election. Examine the
primary and caucus turnout rates on page 18. (Note that the dates in the “Historical Presidential
Primary Turnout” graph are arrayed beginning with the most recent on the left.) How do the
overall primary and caucus voter turnout rates compare to the general election turnout rates?
Why do you think that is?
18.
Examine the voter turnout data from the 2008 presidential primaries and caucuses, the last time
both the Democrats and the Republicans held competitive primaries and caucuses.
a.
What is the largest turnout rate? The lowest?
b.
Do you notice any differences in voter turnout between the different kinds of nominating
events? What do you think is the reason for this difference?
19.
What is your opinion of a presidential nominating system with this low level of voter
participation?
20.
Examine the data in “Poll of Likely Primary Voters, 2011” and “Self-Identified Political
Ideology of U.S. Adults.”
a.
Describe the differences between Republican primary voters and all adults.
b.
Describe the difference between likely Republican primary voters and overall Republican
voters.
c.
What do you think is the reason for the differences described above?
d.
How might voter turnout be linked with this trend?
e.
Given the composition of Republican supporters who are most likely to vote in the
primaries, what kind of candidate might have the greatest chance of success?
f.
Given this data, what kinds of changes might Republican nominees have to make to their
campaign strategies in order to succeed in the general election in November?
Part 4 – Nomination Contest Calendar
21.
22.
Examine “2012 Presidential Primary and Caucus Dates.”
a.
Where were the first two contests held?
b.
What were the three months with the highest number of Republican nomination contests
in 2012?
c.
Every four years, on “Super Tuesday” (March 6th in 2012), as many as 22 states hold
presidential primaries or caucuses. How might these contests impact those held after
Super Tuesday?
Read the description of frontloading.
a.
What do you think motivates the states to engage in frontloading?
b.
Why do you think the Democratic National Committee passed a rule prohibiting most
states from setting earlier dates for their primaries or caucuses in 2008? Why do you
think Florida and Michigan decided to move their primaries to an earlier date in 2008
despite the consequences?
c.
In what way did the Republican National Committee change the rules governing their
primary and caucus calendar for 2012? Why do you think so many states violated the
rule?
d.
What do you think are the negative consequences of “frontloading”?
23.
Examine “Number of Presidential Primaries by Month.” How has the percentage of primaries
taking place in January and February changed over time?
24.
Examine “Midpoint of Primary Season.” What has happened to the midpoint of the primary
season since the 1970’s?
25.
Examine “Number of State Presidential Primaries Won by Nominee,” “ Average Delegate
Accumulation by Nomination Contest,” and “Average Number of Candidates by Nomination
Contest.”
a.
Since the 1970’s what has happened to the length of time during which primaries are
competitive?
b.
How might frontloading account for this trend?
c.
Why might some argue that a more competitive primary/caucus calendar would be better
for democracy?
26.
Examine “Voter Turnout in the March Florida Primary Elections, 1972-2004.” Until 2004,
Florida held its primary in March. What happened to primary voter turnout from the 1970’s to
2004? How might that be tied to frontloading?
27.
Examine “Voter Turnout in State Primaries Before and After the Advent of Frontloading.” How
has frontloading impacted voter turnout in general?
28.
Examine “Length of Presidential Campaign Season” and “Percentage of Americans Who Think
Presidential Campaign is ‘Too Long.’” How does frontloading impact the length of the overall
presidential campaign season? How might this impact voter turnout in both primaries / caucuses
and the general election?
Part 5 – The Impact of Iowa and New Hampshire
29.
Though Iowa and New Hampshire have relatively few delegates in the Republican or
Democratic nominating conventions compared to California or New York, these two states
receive tremendous attention from candidates as well as vast media coverage. Brainstorm
reasons why Iowa and New Hampshire appear to draw a disproportionate amount of attention
from candidates and the media.
30.
Examine “Presidential Nominee Success in Iowa and/or New Hampshire Nomination Contests.”
a.
The data for this table includes 13 separate nominees since 1972 (see footnote on table).
Out of these thirteen, how many did not win in either New Hampshire or Iowa?
b.
What does this tell you about the impact of the first two nominating contests in Iowa and
New Hampshire?
c.
How do you think this might explain the “Cartogram: Campaign Expenditures by State,
2008”?
d.
Examine the demographic data for New Hampshire and Iowa, as well as the “Iowa and
New Hampshire Nomination Contest Voters, 2012.” How do these states compare to the
overall United States?
e.
Opponents of the primary and caucus calendar argue that New Hampshire and Iowa have
an unfair impact on the nomination of presidential candidates. Based on the data above,
how might you summarize that argument?
f.
Supporters of Iowa and New Hampshire’s place on the calendar believe it allows for
candidates whose campaigns are not well-funded an opportunity to win the nomination.
In what way do you think the geographical and population size of New Hampshire and
Iowa might benefit a candidate with little financial backing?