Cause and Effect
Honda Cog Ad
http://www.imediaconnection.com/content/cs/honda/051303/hon
da_ad.swf
606 Takes?
Claim: A complicated Honda Accord commercial
required 606 takes to get right and was achieved
without the use of computer-generated images.
Status: True.
http://www.snopes.com/autos/business/hondacog.asp
Check out urban legends
To find out more, visit this site for researching
urban legends:
http://www.snopes.com/autos/business/hondacog.asp
Causality
What causes this disease?
Why can’t this computer user log on
to the Internet?
Why does this company have so much employee
turnover?
Does capital punishment really have a deterrent
effect?
Why are so many offenders reincarcerated after their
release?
Types of causes
Necessary
Sufficient
Contributory
Necessary causes
Must be present for an effect to occur
E.g., sunlight is required to operate
solar batteries
Sufficient causes
Can produce an effect by themselves,
but other causes can also produce the
same effect
E.g., a dead battery will keep your car
from starting. However, an empty gas
tank will have the same effect.
Contributory causes
Help to produce an effect
but cannot do so by themselves
E.g., a driver says that he rear-ended
the car ahead of him when it stopped
suddenly, not admitting that his tailgating contributed to the accident.
Causal Fallacies
Several logical fallacies result from
confusing cause with effect
or mistaking a contributory cause for a
necessary cause.
Questionable Cause
This logical fallacy confuses cause
and effect.
A and B usually occur together.
Therefore, A causes B.
Questionable Cause
The economy is bad
because of the other party’s economic
policies!
—The political party
that is not in power
Questionable Cause
Bill: "This rap stuff is always telling the kids to kill
cops, do drugs, and abuse women. We ought to
ban that music!"
Joe: "So, you think that getting rid of the rap music
would solve the drug, violence, and sexism
problems in the US?"
Bill: ”It would take care of a lot of it."
Joe: "Don't you think that most of the rap singers
sing about that sort of stuff because that is what is
really going on these days?
Ignoring a Common Cause
A and B regularly occur together.
Therefore, A causes B
(without considering that A and B are
caused by the same thing).
Ignoring a Common Cause
Dead fish and needles from pine trees
are clogging the Wombat river.
Owners of the local chemical plant claim
that the needles caused the fish kill.
Environmentalists believe that the
plant’s toxic wastes killed both the trees
and the fish.
Post Hoc
A occurs before B.
Therefore, A causes B.
Post Hoc
At night time, the street lights come on.
That makes the sun go down.
Boy has no social life. Boy uses product
seen in commercial. Boy meets girl.
Post Hoc
Warrant for Sarah Good was
given at Salem, February 29,
1691-2, in response to
complaints of Sarah Vibber,
Abigail Williams, Elizabeth
Hubbard, Ann Putnam, and
Jno. Vibber. Among the many
depositions in witness to her
malign practices were those of
Samuel Abbey and wife.
Records of Salem Witchcraft, copied
from the original documents, Vol. 2, pp.
41-2, old series.
Post Hoc
That about this Time Three Years past Wm Good and his wife
Sarah Good being destitute of a house to dwell in these Deponents
out of Charity; they being Poor lett them live in theirs some time
untill that the said Sarah Good was of so Turbulant a Sperritt,
Spitefull and so Mallitiously bent, that these Deponents could not
suffer her to Live in their howse any Longer…. the winter following
after the said Sarah was gone from our house we began to Loose
Cattle and Lost several after an vnvsall manner, in a drupeing
condition (sic) Condition and yett they would Eate: and your
Deponents have Lost after that manner 17 head of Cattle within this
two years besides Sheep and Hoggs, and both doe believe they
Dyed by witchcraft.
Post Hoc
Just that very Day that
the said Sarah Good
was taken up, we yr
Deponents had a Cow
that could not rise
alone, but since
presently after she
was taken up, the said
Cow was well and
could rise so well as if
she had ailed nothing.
Insignificant Cause
A cause does contribute to an effect, but
other causes are more important.
Insignificant Cause
McDonald’s was sued for making
people fat. According to Judge Robert
Sweet, ”If a person knows or should
know that eating copious orders of
supersized McDonald's products is
unhealthy and may result in weight gain
... it is not the place of the law to protect
them from their own excesses. Nobody
is forced to eat at McDonald's."
Complex Cause
Only one cause is identified, when
many causes contribute to the effect.
Complex Cause
The Civil War was fought over slavery.
(Slavery was a key issue, but states’
rights and the differences between
Northern and Southern cultures also
played key roles.)
What makes these fallacies?
Poor logic OR
Lack of evidence
(Even if A is the cause of B,
you haven’t made your case
until you’ve provided evidence of the
causal link.)
Writing a Cause-Effect Paper
Writers use many structures:
Cause—Reasons
Cause—Effects
Effect—Causes
Chain of Causes
Writing a Cause-Effect Paper
No matter which structure you choose,
focus on EITHER cause or effect
One Cause: Three Reasons
The META Group study (released April 22,
2003), found that 80 percent of business
people believe that email is a more valuable
communication tool than the phone. The top
three reasons…
One Cause: Three Reasons
The top three reasons people prefer email over the
phone are:
It allows communication with multiple parties
It enables more rapid communication
It allows for communication to be formally recorded
One Cause: Many Reasons
Stephen King’s
“Why We Crave Horror Movies”
Chapter 9, pp. 411-413
One Cause: Many Effects
It is accepted that [Bill] Gates ‘got it’ about the
importance of the Internet in 1995, then wrote what
would become known as “The Memo.” This eightpage document set out a new strategy for
Microsoft. Everyone that mattered in Microsoft read
it, and made sure they got it. Eight pages turned a
super-tanker around.
—Gerry McGovern
One Cause: Many Effects
“Gates realizes that Internet is not “playground for
academics” but the next big thing
Within two years, Microsoft has developed internet
software that does everything except what Java
does
During the development process, Microsoft cuts
corners to catch up, leading to security holes
Attempting to dominate Internet, Microsoft
integrates IE with Windows and is sued under
antitrust laws in 1998
One Effect: Many Causes
William S. Pollack
“Why Boys Become Depressed”
pp. 421-424
Sarah West
“The Rise of Reported Incidents of
Workplace Sexual Harassment”
pp. 426–430
One Effect, Many Causes
Many people believe that slavery was the main
cause of the Civil War. However, other factors,
such as the controversy over states’ rights and
cultural differences between the North and South,
also played a significant role.
I. Slavery
II. States’ rights controversy
III. Cultural differences
Chain of causes
Question 1: Why did the patient get the incorrect medicine?
Answer 1: Because the prescription was wrong.
… Because the doctor made the wrong decision.
… Because he did not have complete information in the
patient’s chart.
… Because the doctor’s assistant had not entered the latest
laboratory report.
… Because the receptionist forgot to pass on the results when
they were phoned in by the lab technician.
<http://www.qaproject.org/methods/resc&e.html>
A Chain of Causes
By asking 'why?' repeatedly it's often possible to
follow a chain of causes. A chain beginning with a
front line operator who is not wearing protective
gloves might go something like:
Step 1
Q. why aren't you wearing any gloves?
A. Because they don't fit.
Step 2
Q. Why don't you get a pair your size from the stores?
A. Because they only have one size.
A Chain of Causes
Step 3 (In the store)
Q. Why do we only have one size of glove?
A. Because no one has told me that it's a problem.
Step 4 (In a team meeting)
Q. Why hasn't anyone reported a problem with glove
sizes?
A. Because our suggestions are never taken up or
acted upon.
.
Writing a Cause-Effect Paper
1.
Establish a valid cause-effect
relationship
not questionable
insufficient
oversimplified
Writing a Cause-Effect Paper
2. Focus on EITHER causes or effects
What causes colon cancer?
OR
If a patient has colon cancer,
what effects can be expected?
Writing a Cause-Effect Paper
3. Discuss causes or effects in a logical
order:
least obvious to most obvious
most obvious to least obvious
most important to least important
least important to most important, or
sequence (first, second, third [or final])
Writing a Cause-Effect Paper
4. Check your logic:
Have you confused an effect with a
cause?
Have you considered all possible
causes and chosen the most important
one(s)?
Writing a Cause-Effect Paper
5. Use conjuctions to show cause and
effect relationships
since as a result because of …
because therefore
due to …
consequently
for this reason
leads to thus
so
Writing a Cause-Effect Paper
6. Use signal words to show the degree of
certainty
may
perhaps
possibly
probably
certainly
undoubtedly unquestionably
necessarily inevitably irrefutably
Possible Topics
Writing a Cause-Effect Paper
http://web.cwoc.ufl.edu/owl/essay_mod
els/index.
http://www.santarosa.edu/~dpeterso/per
manenthtml/tutorial/tutorialframe.htm
Causality Can Be Tricky
http://www.rubegoldberg.com/html/pencil_sharpener
Causes of Salem Witch Trials
1.
Mass hysteria caused by an over zealous religious faith all fueled by superstition,
panic, and rumor. Tituba, A West Indian indentured servant recently imported to a
household in Salem, had been telling stories and folklore about demons and spells to
several young girls who, in turn, spread the stories through the neighborhood. Such
stories of witches and demons and spells to ward them off or attract them had always
been in circulation, but under the influence of an “authority” like Tituba, they took root
in the minds of some very impressionable adolescent girls and spread.
2. Rye mold which contain the chemical basis for LSD. Mold on rye bread and
mushrooms containing a hallucinogenic chemicals have been blamed for many
historical incidents from the Spanish Inquisition to a form of Medieval mania called
Dancing Mania.
3. Economic jealousy of fringe groups in the small culture who felt disenfranchised and
relatively deprived and who intended to get revenge on the landholders and wealthy
citizens.
4. A Spiritual realm invisible to the eye which is inhabited by demons and angels and
who interact with humans either to cause grief and havoc or protect and give good
counsel.