Journalism 614:
Opinion and Perception II:
Spiral of Silence
What is Public Opinion?
 Any opinion held by a majority of citizens?
– Democratic view - The General Will
 Any opinion about public affairs?
– Liberal Democratic view - All are valid
 Only reasoned opinion about issues?
– Elitist view - Only informed opinions count
 Each of these is about forming preferences
and expressing those views
Another definition…
 Public opinion is any opinion that can
expressed publicly without sanctions
– Can state without fear of social isolation
• Here, public opinion is a matter of visibility
• Minority opinions must be seen for those who hold
them to feel comfortable expressing themselves
 This is about the perceptions of the opinion
climate and the ability to speak out without risks
Media Influence
 Direct Method - Communication events,
arguments, and opinions that change the
mind of audience members
– Agenda setting, framing, priming, cultivation,
and some campaign/advertising effects
 Indirect Method - Effect of communication
is through its presumed influence on others
– Present indicators of what seems to be opinion
– Media convey an impression of how accepted
an opinion may be now or in future
Spiral of Silence
 Societal norms can be intimidating
 Understand public opinion as a tangible force
– Intense social pressure can be brought to bear on the
person who dares to test the boundaries
 Perception of distribution of opinion shapes
willingness to express opinions
– People express opinions more confidently when they see
they are in the majority or “gaining ground”
– People are unwilling to express opinions that run counter
to their perception of majority view
Opinion Expression
 What opinions can be expressed?
– Opinions that do not risk fear of social isolation
– Opinions that are publicly visible
• Can be a minority opinion, but minority must speak
out and act as if it is, or will be, majority
 People have a “quasi-statistical organ”
– A sixth sense that provides information about
what society is thinking and feeling
– Constantly scan the environment to gauge the
climate of opinion and future trends.
Fear of Isolation
 Fear of social isolation is the key force that
drives the spiral of silence
– Group pressure has tremendous influence
– We don’t like to be excluded for our views
 Theory about obedience to authority in
World War II - citizens in Nazi Germany
– Grew out of attempt to account for German
citizenry in the lead up to the Holocaust
 Neumann (1974)
introduced the “spiral of
silence” as an attempt to
explain in part how
public opinion is formed.
 She was attempting to
explain why Germans in
the l930s supported
political positions that
led to war and genocide.
Why a Spiral?
 Noelle-Neumann argues
that the effect spirals over
time, because as the
minority opinion is
expressed less and less,
increasingly those who hold
it come to think no one else
agrees with them, and may
even try to talk themselves
out of their own beliefs.
 Mass media
influences the
spiral of silence
in that the more
mass media
persuades people
that their opinion
is outlying, the
more the spiral
takes effect.
Polling and the “Spiral of Silence”
 The implications of this are that pollsters
should not just ask about an individual’s
own opinions. Must ask what a person
perceives to be the predominant view.
 People are hesitant to express a preference
that they feel is generally unpopular, so the
pollster needs to know what people THINK
is the prevailing or dominent view.
 The Spiral of Silence“ theory has been
criticized for ambiguity and
methodological weakness.
 Noelle-Neumann backed her theories
with some empirical research, but also
with references to historical intellectuals
- Machiavelli, Rousseau, & Hobbes.
 But criticism notwithstanding, her ideas
are worth considering.
The Gulf War~An example?
 During the 1991 Gulf War U.S. support for the war was
measured in a survey that asked about people’s opinions.
 Overall, respondents were clearly less supportive of the
war than the popular support depicted by the media. But
those who watched television seem to have developed the
impression that the public supported the war, were more
likely to support the war themselves.
Does it Matter Noelle-Neumann was a Nazi?
– Noelle-Neumann was Nazi Party member
• She worked for Goebbels, head of Nazi Propaganda
• Wrote for Das Reich, but later withdrew/recanted
 Christopher Simpson, professor of journalism at American University
here in Washington, DC, published an article in the Journal of
Communication , “Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann’s “Spiral of Silence” and
the Historical Context of Communication Theory”.
 Simpson cited her pro-NSDAP writings. For example, in Das Reich in
1941 she had described the Chicago Daily News as a Jewish “wasps
nest” and accused Jews of using “neutral camouflage” to disguise what
she characterized as their monopoly of US advertising, films and
newspapers.
Noelle claimed that her attacks
against Jews published from
1937 to 1941 were an “alibi”
to cover her real anti-Nazism,
that she had no intention of
harming Jews by her writings.
She argued that she had never
become a Nazi party member.
Also she said that she had
been dismissed from Das
Reich in 1942 by Goebbels
himself, because she had used
a picture of Franklin Delano
Roosevelt that was
insufficiently repulsive.
Questions to Think About:
 Does the “Spiral of Silence” theory make
ring true to you?
 What sort of experiment could you design
to test it?
 Does Noelle-Neumann’s involvement with
Hitler’s regime invalidate her ideas?
 Does her reaction to Simpson’s exposé
invalidate her ideas?
Social Influence
 Considers effects of group settings on
attitudes, opinion expression, behavior
 Largely based on experimental research
– Solomon Asch’s work on social conformity
• When do we go along with the group?
– Stanley Milgram’s work on social compliance
• When do we obey authority?
Asch – Conformity
Conformity
The Asch studies
 Unambiguous situation
 Small group setting (10-12)
 Uniform incorrect assessment
 Over one-third concur with incorrect
assessment - go along with the group
Minority Influence
 Judgments about color of slides
 Consistent incorrect assessment by minority
 Portion of subjects agree in error
 Implication:
– Minority opinion can exert power
– Bandwagon vs. Siding with the underdog
Milgram – Obedience
Obedience
 Subjects “randomly” assigned the role of
"teacher" and asked to administered shocks to
"pupils” for incorrect responses
 Pupils were actually part of the experiment.
– Act out the effects of progressively higher “shocks”
– What proportion will continue to the highest level when
prodded by the supervisor?
• Highest voltage switches (450 volts) were marked with labels
of “Danger: Severe Shock” and then “XXX”
Setup and Scenario
Voltage
75
120
150
200
300
330+
Confederate Response
Grunts
Shouts in pain
Refuses to continue
Blood-curdling screams
Refuses to answer
Silence
Objection Supervisor’s response
First
"He's fine. go on.”
Second
"The experiment requires
you to go on.”
Third
"It is absolutely essential
to go on.”
Fourth
"You have no choice. You
must go on."
Response of Subjects
Milgram’s Obedience
Experiment
 Different subjects, locations (~)
 Decrease proximity of authority (-)
 Increase connection to student (-)
 Involve obedient others (+)
 Involve disobedient others (-)
When to Speak or Keep Silent
 Conformity and compliance have great
social power over individuals
– Those in minority positions tend to keep quite
if they do not sense support
– Not that they change their minds
• “Duck their heads and keep their own council”
Summary
 People have the ability to gauge trends of
public sentiment
 People justifiably fear social isolation
 People are hesitant to express minority
viewpoints, especially if “losing ground”
 But where do they get their perceptions?
Media Influence
 Mass media work jointly with majority
opinion to silence minority views
– Mass media, particularly TV, suggest what
others are thinking through portrayals
– People look to the media to see if there is
support and legitimization for views
• Index the media to gauge current climate
• Provide the words and phrases that people can use to
defend a certain point of view
Critiques of Spiral of Silence
 Hardcores - the minority that remains vocal in
defiance of threats of isolation
– Bill Maher, Dixie Chicks, War Protesters
 Pluralistic ignorance and Projection - we tend to
misestimate the prevalence of our views
– Quasi-statistical organ doesn’t work so well
 Weak support outside of WW II Germany
– Maybe only operates in totalitarian regimes
– The ability to find like-minded views online