Stratus World 2006 – Las Vegas The Second Derivative: New Opportunities in Telecom Roderick K. Randall Senior Managing Director Vesbridge Partners Page 1 Why Start or Invest in a Telecom Company? • Why do you rob banks, Willy? “Cause that’s where the money is” Willy Sutton Bank Robber Page 2 Where are the New Opportunities? • Answer: The Page 3 Second Derivative Second Derivative Plays • • The Base Internet infrastructure Starting with narrowband and moving to broadband. The First Derivative opportunities • Internet based companies such as AOL, Amazon, Yahoo, Google, eBay, and others The Second Derivative Plays Skype - $4 Billion! Moogle, MeBay, Mamazon, Metc. Mass Personalization and Citizen Media MediaCos (not Telcos or CableCos, but Network TV without the Network) Page 4 Voogle – Video Search Based TV Ad Delivery A Network Carol • • • Page 5 The Ghost of Christmas Past The Ghost of Christmas Present The Ghost of Christmas Future The Ghost of Christmas Past • Telecom was the most valuable and profitable industry in the world • • • Page 6 When I joined AT&T Bell Labs in 1981 it was the worlds largest company and its most valuable We’ve since seen Divestiture and Trivestiture, (and now reassembly!) along with a tremendous growth in the competitive environments… Along with a dramatic surge in capacity and capability in the following 25 years.. Spurring in turn a tremendous surge in innovations, not the least of which included the internet and the web LGNs: Last Generation Networks • • • Page 7 Voice and Connectivity Local and Long Distance Bandwidth in $/Minute, $/Mile, Worldwide Telecom Service Revenues $1.4 Trillion in 2005 $1.0 Trillion Source: IDC Page 8 The Ghost of Christmas Present • • • • • • • Page 9 Strong demand for higher and higher bandwidth Increasingly Pervasive “always on” Broadband Enabling the 1st derivative business models to enormously prosper such as those of Amazon, Yahoo, eBay, and Google Google is now worth over $100 Billion, which is more than any telecom operator in the world, except for Vodafone Group, which has grown by acquiring over 26 operators Skype was already acquired for $4 Billion by eBay P2P traffic from a small percentage of subscribers dominates the internet backbone All telcos are planning some form of IPTV in a triple play with 10s of Mbps of BB BW The Ghost of Christmas Future • • • • Page 10 A number of potential futures One is where telcos ride the new wave of opportunity by radically transforming their business models to meet the new challenge Another where telcos are ridden by the new 2nd derivative players, some of which are the 1st derivative players who have evolved and are now gear-shifting into overdrive Let’s look at the second one first, because that’s what Dickens would do Key Catalysts • • • • • • • • • • Page 11 Plentiful Consumer Broadband in capacities un-dreamed of 10 years ago… Driven by the MAD Winner-Take-All competitive threat of The Triple Play … Driven by the push to mix Entertainment Delivery with Telecom… Digitally using IP… At low costs… Even free… Or “apparently” free to the consumer… Using a new advertiser supported business model… Which is no longer broadcast based… And everything is stored on increasingly abundant cheap storage, and instantly retrievable by anyone anywhere What Do You Call 1,024 Petabytes? • And the answer is… An • • • • How many Petafiles could a woodchuck chuck, if a wood chuck could chuck wood? Terabytes of Storage will become common place in the average broadband consumer home within 5 years As the tendency to keep rather than discard data increases, along with more sources What is a Googabyte? Page 12 Exabyte 1 with 100 Zeroes of bytes Magnetic Disk Storage Cost: Declining at a Rate of 45% Annually $1,000.00 $1,000.00 Cost of 1GigaByte Cost ofDisk 1G Byte of Capacity of Hard Storage $303.00 $100.00 $92.00 $10.00 $28.00 $1.00 $0.10 1992 Source: Berghell Associates, 2001 Page 13 1994 1996 1998 $8.37 2000 $2.53 2002 $0.77 2004 $0.23 2006 $0.07 2008 A New $1 Trillion Industry… • It will be made up from the convergence and collision of three different industries • • • • Page 14 Entertainment: $72 Billion $12 Billion Music $60 Billion Movies Advertising: $600 Billion Telecom Services:$1.4 Trillion The Tail may be wagging the Dog Net Net: $2 Trillion $1 Trillion But, there will be a different set of winners and losers Key Catalysts: Read on… Enter Googlezon • • EPIC 2014, a short film by Matt Thompson and Robin Sloan Ads move from broadcast TV, newspapers, print, billboards, other, to Online • • • • Page 15 NY Times shuts down, unable to support its printing costs Mass personalization makes advertising much more compelling both to advertisers and potential customers Google buys Amazon to create Googlezon Everything that’s bought begins with a search With personalized, search driven, real-time inserted, online Ads… People get ads that they actually want to watch, Related to something they are interested in purchasing, Rather than are annoyed by and seek to skip Which Becomes Googlezonage • TV is offered for free, again, this time Pointcast over IP, not broadcast • • • • Telephony rides for free on IP, leading to financial crisis in network operators All telcos learn to operate within bankruptcy like the airline industry Google buys SBC (out of bankruptcy) and Vonage to keep the broadband pipes flowing Wireless is the only surviving stand alone network business Page 16 All supported by a real-time hyperlinked Mass Personalized Ad model NBC, ABC, CBS shut down, replaced by Bloggers MTV, Fox, and Craig’s List survive as the new Ad Aggregators (a la Overture) But its threatened by Googlezonage’s new Global WiFiMAX FreeNet Enter Googlezonage Mobile It’s a MAD MAD World • Page 17 M.A.D.: Mutually Assured Destruction for telcos and cable operators But, There’s An Alternative Future • • • • • • Page 18 Telcos and Cablecos not only offer IPTV, but get involved in Internet TV They add intelligence in their networks to make sure they are paid for the value of connection in order to keep the pipes alive Nobody unsustainably gives valuable network connections away for free without someone paying the operators The new business models that are created involve a true payment methodology for QoS that reflects value, but that could be paid by sponsors such as advertisers New applications are spawned, which further institutionalize the network providers into the value chain, rather than Skype them out Connection will continue to be valued and paid for The Stupid Network is a Stupid Idea • • • • • • • • Page 19 Stupid Networks lead to stupid and unsustainable Business Models Stupid Networks would ultimately only have price/bit as differentiation… Leading to rapid commoditization… Which drives profitability out of all competitors… Which makes the business un attractive… Which makes it un-finance-able… Which makes it un-staff-able with top talent Which leads to collapse Dimensions Of Network Intelligence Signaling and Control Control • AIN Services •800/900, Caller ID/Name •Voice Mail, IVR • Mobility • SMS • SIP • Fixed/Mobile Convergence IP Enhanced 3-D Intelligence PSTN Content • • • • • • Page 20 Instant Messaging Content Multimedia messaging Network Based Security Parental Control Spam Filtering Intelligent Content Delivery & Management Management Management • • • • DNHR Self Healing Networks Flow Through Provisioning MPLS Fixed-Mobile Convergence Architectural Environment HLR VLR RAN GSM CDMA WCDMA 1x-RTT/EV-DO HSDPA Pre- SMSC Paid HLR HLR HLR VLR BSC PSTN A-Interface WBSC WiFi/SIP BSC MSC MSC Hosted Voice Svc Provider IMS MS SG SG VLR SS MG MG SS/MM IP Pico Cellular L-AP WiFi L-AP Bluetooth U-AP WiMax M-AP IP MFW WLAN GWY Page 21 SS7 Fixed-Mobile Convergence Architectural Environment HLR VLR RAN GSM CDMA WCDMA 1x-RTT/EV-DO HSDPA Pre- SMSC Paid HLR HLR HLR VLR BSC PSTN A-Interface WBSC WiFi/SIP BSC MSC MSC Hosted Voice Svc Provider IMS MS SG SG VLR SS MG MG SS/MM IP Pico Cellular L-AP WiFi L-AP Bluetooth U-AP WiMax M-AP Broadband Residences SIP PBX Remote Offices IP MG PBX MFW WLAN GWY Page 22 SS7 Fixed-Mobile Convergence FT Server Opportunities HLR VLR RAN GSM CDMA WCDMA 1x-RTT/EV-DO HSDPA Pre- SMSC Paid HLR HLR HLR VLR BSC PSTN A-Interface WBSC WiFi/SIP BSC MSC MSC Hosted Voice Svc Provider IMS MS SG SG VLR SS MG MG SS/MM IP Pico Cellular L-AP WiFi L-AP Bluetooth U-AP WiMax M-AP Broadband Residences SIP PBX Remote Offices IP MG PBX MFW WLAN GWY Page 23 SS7 Intelligent Content Distribution Every Song, Artist, Video, or Film Ever Recorded… On Demand Guest Room Master Bedroom Home Media Server DSL Home Theatre Fiber Ethernet Switch Page 24 DSL/Cable Modem Cable Network Edge Network Core Intelligent Content Distribution Content Replication and Pre-Caching Guest Room Master Bedroom Home Media Server DSL Home Theatre Network Edge Cable Network Core Fiber Ethernet Switch DSL/Cable Modem Local DVRs Home Media Server Network Edge DVR Network Core DVR • • • • • Store most recent tv shows Favorites Page 25 Store all purchased and downloaded content Movies TV shows Pictures MP3s Etc. Store the most popular content: Most downloaded movies New releases Most popular MP3s Store all content: All movies available for download All Music available for download All Video... Intelligent Content Distribution Policy Control Servers Control Network Enforcement BW/QoS Policy Server PCS Guest Room Real Time Billing Policy Server PCS Master Bedroom Home Media Server DSL Home Theatre Network Edge Cable Network Core Fiber Ethernet Switch DSL/Cable Modem Policy Enforcement Point Local DVRs Home Media Server Network Edge DVR Network Core DVR • • • • • Store most recent tv shows Favorites Page 26 Store all purchased and downloaded content Movies TV shows Pictures MP3s Etc. Store the most popular content: Most downloaded movies New releases Most popular MP3s Store all content: All movies available for download All Music available for download All Video... Intelligent Content Distribution Search Based Personalized Real Time Ad Insertion Search based Personalization Real Time Ad Insertion PCS Guest Room PCS Entitlement & DRM PCS P2P Swarm Controller PCS Master Bedroom Home Media Server DSL Home Theatre Network Edge Cable Network Core Fiber Ethernet Switch DSL/Cable Modem Policy Enforcement Point Local DVRs Home Media Server Network Edge DVR Network Core DVR • • • • • Store most recent tv shows Favorites Page 27 Store all purchased and downloaded content Movies TV shows Pictures MP3s Etc. Store the most popular content: Most downloaded movies New releases Most popular MP3s Store all content: All movies available for download All Music available for download All Video... Intelligent Content Distribution Controlled Peer-To-Peer Swarmcasting Search based Personalization Real Time Ad Insertion PCS Guest Room PCS Entitlement & DRM PCS P2P Swarm Controller PCS Master Bedroom Home Media Server DSL Home Theatre Network Edge Cable Network Core Fiber Ethernet Switch DSL/Cable Modem Policy Enforcement Point Local DVRs Home Media Server Network Edge DVR Network Core DVR • • • • • Store most recent tv shows Favorites Page 28 Store all purchased and downloaded content Movies TV shows Pictures MP3s Etc. Store the most popular content: Most downloaded movies New releases Most popular MP3s Store all content: All movies available for download All Music available for download All Video... Intelligent Content Distribution FT Server Opportunities Search based Personalization Real Time Ad Insertion PCS Guest Room PCS Entitlement & DRM PCS P2P Swarm Controller PCS Master Bedroom Home Media Server DSL Home Theatre Network Edge Cable Network Core Fiber Ethernet Switch DSL/Cable Modem Policy Enforcement Point Local DVRs Home Media Server Network Edge DVR Network Core DVR • • • • • Store most recent tv shows Favorites Page 29 Store all purchased and downloaded content Movies TV shows Pictures MP3s Etc. Store the most popular content: Most downloaded movies New releases Most popular MP3s Store all content: All movies available for download All Music available for download All Video... $1 Trillion Market Grows to $3 Trillion • • • Page 30 Oops, what’s that ringing sound? Was that the alarm clock waking me up from this dream, or is it a nightmare??? You be the judge Thank You! www.vesbridge.com Page 31