Presented by: Paul Ferguson, Cizmic Consulting
Atlantis, Paradise Island, July 2008
Topics
1. Industry Trends
 Industry in Transformation - shift
 New converged telecom and “infotainment” industry
 Increasing complexity – all connected
 It is all about the customer …
2. Emerging Technologies & Implications
 IPTV and “triple play”
 Fiber-To-The-x
 VoIP
 The Road to 4G: WiMAX versus LTE
 Mobile TV
 Fixed Mobile Convergence
3. Is there a new role of the Government ?
 Regulatory
 e-Government and e-Society
Emerging Trends & Technologies
2
1
Industry Trends
Cizmic Consulting - BTC Strategic Considerations
Industry Transformation
Late 2000’s
Late 90’s
Early 2000’s
Connectivity
Scale
Post-Bubble
Empowerment
• Mobile 1G
• Ethernet
• IP starting
• Internet takes a
hold
• Mobile 2G
• Large network
build-outs
• Internet
bubble
• VoIP
• Mobile 2.5G
• Broadband
ubiquity
• Triple/Quad Play
• Social networks
• Mobile 3/4G
• Smart devices
• Content
anytime,
anywhere
• Convergence
Early 90’s
Emerging Trends & Technologies
4
Industry Transformation
New converged
telecom and
“infotainment”
industry
Integrated
&
Converged
Bundles
Old telecom
industries
Stand-Alone
Services
Connectivity
Connectivity
+ Content
Industry transformation well under way
Emerging Trends & Technologies
5
Industry Shift
Industry Ecosystem
Ecosystem Shift
Subscriber
Subscriber
Service
provider type
and service
definitions
determined by
technology
Subscriber and
content moving
closer together
applies pressure to
conventional model
Content
Content
Emerging Trends & Technologies
6
From Kilobits….Megabits……Gigabits
Yesterday
Today
e.g. 28Kbps – dial up
Emerging Trends & Technologies
e.g.5Mbps – ADSL (always on)
7
Speed matters
Dial Up & 2G
xDSL, 3G & WiMAX
<--Fibre-To-The-Home-->
(FTTH)
1st Gen
Next Gen
SIZE
0.5Mbps
1.5 Mbps
10 Mbps
100 Mbps
1 Gbps
4 MB
63s
21s
3.2s
.3s
.03s
Music – Download
4 MB
63s
3.2s
21s
.3s
.03s
Podcast – News
114 MB
30m 24s
10m 8s
1m 31 s
9.1s
.9s
TV Show – 40 min
200 MB
53m 30s
17m 46s
2m 40s
16s
1.6s
Movie – Apple TV
1.5 GB
6h 39m
2h 13m
20m
2m
12s
Movie – Best Quality
2.5 GB
11h 10m
3h 42m
33m 20s
3m 20s
20s
Photo
Emerging Trends & Technologies
8
Bandwidth Requirements: New Discontinuities
Hundreds of
Mbps
BANDWIDTH
Ultimate Broadband
30 Mbps and up
Advanced Broadband
20 to 30 Mbps
Tens of Mbps
Competitive Broadband
10 to 15 Mbps
Ones of
Mbps
1st Gen Broadband
200 Kbps to 5 Mbps
Hundreds of
Kbps
Tens of Kbps
Mid 90s
Mid 00s
Narrowband
9.6 to 56 Kbps
TIME
Speeds offered world-wide now heading into 10’s Mbps
(requirement for IPTV)
Emerging Trends & Technologies
9
Changing Role of Broadband
“OLD” VERSUS “NEW” BROADBAND
“NEW” BROADBAND
“OLD” BROADBAND








Basic Service
Impersonal
Single Service
Best Effort
Low Speeds
Fixed Only
Single Device
Nice to Have Service








Full Service
Personalized
Multiple/Blended Services
Guaranteed Performance
Very High Speeds
Fixed and Mobile
Multiple Devices
Must Have Service
Broadband has evolved to be a necessity
Emerging Trends & Technologies
10
“Three Screens of Life”
 There is a recognition that more
customers are seeking solutions that
will allow them to move and share
information seamlessly between their
communication devices.
 They want more control over how
they experience content and they also
want a compelling experience across
their three primary “screens” - their
television, personal computer, and
mobile device, commonly referred to
as “the 3 Screens of life”.
Emerging Trends & Technologies
11
Consumer expectation is changing … what is at stake
“Triple/Quadruple Play” … a holy grail for
carriers
 Customers expect one bill for multiple services,
with deep discounts for loyalty
HIGH
LOW
 Currently multiple individual solutions of voice,
video, and data
 Triple Play struggling to gain acceptance because
the price is approximately 2 – 5x more what
people at the bottom of the socio economic
pyramid can afford
Average Monthly Triple/Quad Play “connectivity”
costs is approximately $120
Emerging Trends & Technologies
12
… for Subscribers & Service Providers
Speed, convergence and bundling of services leads to:
Subscribers
Subscribers
Control
Convenience
Customization
Mobility
Productivity
Satisfaction
Savings
Usage
==
Service Providers
Customer Loyalty
Customer Loyalty
Competitive Advantage
Competitive Advantage
i.e. Market
Market
Differentiation
Differentiation
Profit Margins
Margins
Profit
Revenue
Revenue
+
Churn
Operational
Costs
Subscription
Subscription
Emerging Trends & Technologies
13
2
Emerging Technologies
Cizmic Consulting - BTC Strategic Considerations
IPTV… The key to service provider Triple Play
 IPTV (Internet Protocol Television) - the delivery of both broadcast and/or on-demand
TV and video over an IP network (Ovum 2007).
 How big will the IPTV market be? Estimates show that IPTV subscribers will balloon
from 3.7 million in 2005 to over 40 million by 2010 (worldwide), with Europe leading
the market. The industry's revenues could reach nearly US$12 billion by that time.
 For residential users, IPTV is often provided in conjunction with Video on Demand and
may be commercially bundled with Internet services such as Web access and VoIP for a
"Triple Play" (adding mobility for a "Quadruple Play").
Example: AT&T is preparing to take on the big cable operators in major U.S. markets with
its IPTV architecture, using fiber to the node (FTTN) technology, delivering at least 24 Mbps
using ADSL 2+ and/or VDSL.
Still, the battle is for more than just the television; it's a
struggle for the single entry point into the home.
Emerging Trends & Technologies
15
Building Blocks
21st Century House
Homes
Connected
US$700 – 1,300
Cost vary depending on several factors:
Network Topology
Building Density
Aerial vs Buried Fiber
Construction/Labour Cost
Broadband
Modem
Computer
WLAN
VoIP
HDTV
Security
Monitor
Homes
Passed
Careful evaluation of fiber based business case required
Emerging Trends & Technologies
16
VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
What is VoIP?
VoIP or Voice over Internet Protocol, also
known as Internet voice, allows consumers
to make voice calls over their broadband
connection using a regular phone with an
adaptor, an IP phone, or a PC
Personal
Computer
Telephone
Modem
IP technology allows services such as
voice and video to be treated exactly like
data, namely as applications, that can be
transmitted quickly and simultaneously
over IP networks at significantly lower
costs than those of the PSTN.
Phone
Adapter
Internet
Personal
Computer
Emerging Trends & Technologies
Telephone
17
VoIP … the Industry Hype
 No telecom technology in recent history has been more
disruptive to the telecom industry than VoIP. ..In 2004 it was
VoIP over DSL with Vonage leading the way… in 2005 it was
free voice from Skype, in 2006 was cable VoIP.
 VoIP consumer users currently stand at about 4 to 5% of
US and European households.
 Business customers show strong demand for VoIP services,
but it is not clear that all operators are ready to meet their
requirements.
 Although many consumers have heard of VoIP few are
interested. Operators plan to capitalize on consumers’
desire to save money in the short term.
 In the future, successful operators will use VoIP networks
to deliver mass service customization and accelerate service
development.
Emerging Trends & Technologies
Operators, vendors, and
the media are hyping
VoIP
18
The Road to 4G: WiMAX versus LTE
 The Road to 4G: WiMAX versus LTE (long-term evolution)
– WiMAX - Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX), as defined
by the WiMAX Forum, is "a standards-based technology enabling the delivery of last
mile wireless broadband access as an alternative to cable and DSL." In other words,
WiMAX technology enables the transport and delivery of wireless data from pointto-point links, to full mobile cellular type access, in several formats, and across long
distances.
– WiMAX has a time to market advantage over LTE -- the standards are ratified and
equipment is certified, a good two years ahead of LTE. Although, the reality is that
(a) consumers will not have access to this technology via access points, laptops, dual
mode cell phones, etc. for some time; (b) wireless access via 802.11b/g is more than
sufficient for most users both in-home networking, internet access and even VoIP
calls
– Speed: tens of Mbps
– Availability: 802.16 d/e now;
– Frequency: various, most common 2.3 GHz to 3.5 GHz
– Main Supporters: multiple vendors/operators(Sprint)
Emerging Trends & Technologies
19
The Road to 4G: WiMAX versus LTE
– LTE has the advantage being supported by a significantly larger mobile operator
base allowing them to leverage some parts of their embedded infrastructure. LTE
like WiMax, is a flat IP architecture and OFDM based (orthogonal frequencydivision multiplexing), which have higher efficiency. It is planned to be deployed in
lower-frequency bands (from 700 MHz to 2.6 GHz) which minimizes the number of
base stations required for coverage and incrementally reduces capital and
operational expenditure.
– Speed: tens of Mbps (similar to WiMAX in terms of data rate)
– Availability: general consensus - commercial deployment in 2010, but it likely will
not gain significant traction until the 2013; mass adoption will occur around 2015
– Frequency: from 700 MHz to 2.6 GHz (incl. cellular and PCS bands, to be colocated with legacy networks)
– Main Supporters: multiple vendors and operators (i.e. China Mobile, Vodafone,
Orange, T-Mobile International, KPN Mobile, and NTT DoCoMo)
WiMAX → Niche Underserved Markets
LTE → Cellular Evolution
Emerging Trends & Technologies
20
Mobile TV
 Mobile TV - Broadcast TV on a mobile device
 Around the world wireless carriers have been building
their high-speed wireless network infrastructure,
creating the scene for critical-mass mobile TV.
 The real issue is not whether mobile TV will be
disruptive, but which business model will win. The
business models could take the shape of a cable
model (different content packages with providers
getting a percentage based on subscribers), an a la
carte model (pick your own mobile TV channels), or
an advertisement-based model (i.e. ESPN assembling
all those sports fans for advertisers).
Hardly any wireless service provider has a revenue management or
assurance program in place for mobile TV revenue distribution
Emerging Trends & Technologies
21
Fixed-Mobile Convergence
 A killer app that's got all service providers' attention is fixed-mobile convergence
(FMC). A particularly attractive spin is an integrated Wi-Fi/mobile wireless phone,
using mobile wireless on cellular infrastructure when you are out and about, and
Wi-Fi for free when you are in your home or office.
 Here's the basic problem with this stellar vision: what's in it for mobile wireless
providers? They get 30 percent of their revenue from users who are in reach of an
office phone or are at home, often without wireline service to begin with. Besides,
are mobile wireless providers going to end up subsidizing the dual-mode Wi-Fi
cellular phone, only to see revenue shrink? Yes in some selected environments, and
no otherwise.
Emerging Trends & Technologies
22
3
Is there a new role of the
Government ?
 What are the options?
 Stay out of the way
 Regulate the telecom to ensure competitive parity
 Eliminate the digital divide. Similar to roads… should
Governments provide free basic communications infrastructure ?
 Use technology to become more efficient e.g eGovt initiatives
Cizmic Consulting - BTC Strategic Considerations
e-Government and e-Society
Attractive for Businesses
 e-Government and e-Society
The establishment of an e-government infrastructure is a proven
catalyst to help create a business-friendly environment by
streamlining the interaction and improving the interface between
government and business. By cutting out redundancies in
procedures and emphasizing immediate and efficient delivery of
services, e-government creates the conditions that attract
investors/ investment.
Willingness of Government to consistently push e-Gov and eSociety agenda for increased efficiency, increased
communications between the agencies and the citizen or a
business, conducting transactions, governance, etc. requires a
ubiquitous broadband, government backbone, new applications,
human capital, among other.
Emerging Trends & Technologies
24
e-Government and e-Society
Examples from around the world
Germany
United
Kingdom
Canada
Italy
United States
Singapore
Trinidad &
Tobago
Dubai
Switzerland
Emerging Trends & Technologies
25
e-Government and e-Society
How to deliver an e-Vision
e-Vision
Segments
Pipe Size
(Speed)
Services
Technology
E-Learning
All learning
centres, schools
& libraries
1mbps–10mbps
On-line Education,
Virtual Classroom,
Virtual lecture & share
point
ADSL 2+, Ev-DO, WiFi,
Wimax
E-Commerce
SME & Large
Enterprises
5mbps-100mbps
Business to Business,
e-Supply chain &
Online store
ADSL2+,Fibre+ Wimax
E-Culture
All citizens
10mbps–1Gbps
IPTV,HDTV & Video on
demand
ADSL2+, Fibre
E-security
Major cities,
high traffic
areas & gov’t
institutions
10mbps–100mbps
Full Motion Video,
Face Recognition, City
Surveillance etc
Wimax, Fibre
E-Government
Gov’t
institutions
10mbps–1Gbps
Video Conferences,
Virtual Data bases etc
Wimax, Fibre
E-Health
All major
hospitals
100mbps-1Gbps
3D Imaging, Fle
Sharing & Virtual
Diagnostics
Fibre
Emerging Trends & Technologies
26
Conclusion
Emerging technologies pose both a threat and
opportunity to existing operators and vendors
The key to successfully deploying emerging
technologies is the development of an investor
grade business plan that addresses the need of the
customers
Emerging Trends & Technologies
27
Fiber-To-The-x
FTTN – Fiber to the Node
DLC
FTTC – Fiber to the Curb
DLC
FTTB – Fiber to the Building
FTTH – Fiber to the Home
Need to match access to the target segment(s)
Emerging Trends & Technologies
28