Energy - The Global Change Program at the University of Michigan

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Announcement
• GC
Week 8 (march 4-8) deadline extended to
tomorrow. Technical problem is fixed.
• Review session for midterm 2:
this Thursday (3/14), 6-7pm in 2000 Chem.
• Midterm 2 (Monday, 3/18) will not include this
week’s lectures on Energy, but they will be
covered on the final.
1
Energy
Water is central to life on Earth. Energy is
central to living on Earth.
We are not running out of energy, we are running
out of environment.
Outline of Lectures
Today’s state of global energy
oil, gas, coal
Alternatives
renewables, nuclear
Systems and Decisions
sociopolitics of energy
Laboratory
Analyze USA energy data
2
Energy and Wealth/Poverty
Near perfect proportionality between
wealth and energy usage
Source: Cunningham and Saigo, 1990
3
Disclosure: my car
Am I the problem?
4
National Energy Policy, 2001
5
Some recommendations in President G.W. Bush's
2001 National Energy Policy Report
•
•
•
•
•
Production
Ease restrictions on oil and gas development on public lands.
Open a portion of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska to drilling.
Ease permit process for refinery expansion and construction.
Speed license procedures for hydroelectric dams and geothermal plants.
Power Plants
Streamline approval process for siting power plants.
Give government authority to take property through eminent domain for power lines.
Provide tax breaks for developing clean coal technologies.
Ease regulatory barriers, including clean air rules, to make plants more efficient.
Nuclear
Adjust regulations to speed relicensing of reactors and licensing of new plants.
Pursue a national nuclear waste repository; Yucca Mountain is not singled out in the report.
Tax breaks for purchase of nuclear plants.
Reauthorize law that limits industry liability from a nuclear accident.
Revive technology that allows spent fuel from nuclear reactors to be reused to produce
electricity (abandoned in 1970s because it was consider a proliferation risk).
Renewable Energy
Tax credits to encourage development of energy plants that use organic waste, or biomass.
Continue tax credits for wind energy generation.
Give tax credit of 15 percent for homeowners who purchase solar panels.
Study whether to require automobiles to meet higher fuel efficiency standards.
$5 billion in new spending, mostly tax credits, for renewable energy and conservation projects.
Expand alternative fuels tax incentives to landfills capturing methane gas for electricity
generation.
Conservation
Tax credit for purchase of high-mileage, hybrid gas-electric vehicles.
Tax benefits and regulatory relief for co-generation plants that produce both heat and electricity
Expand federal Energy Star program beyond businesses into schools, homes and hospitals. 6
Types of Energy
Everything that moves has KINETIC ENERGY. The faster an
object moves, and the more mass it has, the more kinetic energy it
has.
POTENTIAL ENERGY is associated with position. Potential
energy is stored whenever something moves in the opposite
direction to a force acting on it.
INTERNAL (HEAT) ENERGY is the kinetic energy of the countless
moving atoms and molecules of matter. The hotter something is,
the faster its atoms and molecules move.
RADIANT ENERGY is carried by electromagnetic radiation (light
rays).
The energy contained within molecular bonds is called CHEMICAL
ENERGY.
7
Energy and Units
 Work = Force x Distance (= m.a.d)
= N.m = Joule
 A British thermal unit (Btu) is the amount of heat
required to raise the temperature of 1lb of water by
one degree Fahrenheit. Lighting a 100-watt light
bulb for one hour requires 341.5 Btu.
 Amounts of petroleum are measured in barrels,
where one barrel contains 42 gallons.
 Amounts of natural gas are measured in cubic
feet. In terms of Btu energy equivalents, 6,000ft3 of
gas equals one barrel of oil. One thousand cubic
feet of gas heats a typical home for one winter
day.
8
Energy Laws
First Law of Thermodynamics: Conservation of Energy

Energy cannot be created or destroyed.

Energy can only change from type to type.
Second Law of Thermodynamics: Increasing Entropy

Changes always occur with less than 100% efficiency. So, no
machine can every be 100% efficient, because certain amount
of energy will be lost as heat (efficiency).
Primary
Energy
9
Human Use of Energy

Before agriculture, an individual could only harness fire and own
muscle power
 For short periods a person can work at 800 Watts (~ 1 HP)
 Average would be 0.3 HP over a few days







Great leap from domestication of horses, oxen, mules, camels,
elephants
Egyptians used sailing boats around 3500 BC
The invention of the horseshoe around 400 BC permitted horses to
plough stony fields without hurting them
In Middle Ages, energy from water mills and windmills harnessed.
In 1765, England close to running out of timber - James Watt invents
the steam engine
late 19th C the use of heavy hydrocarbons for internal combustion
engine, leading to transportation revolution
… does human innovation always save the day?
10
Non-Renewable Energy Sources
FOSSIL FUELS
 Oil
Refinery products include petrochemicals, jet fuel,
gasoline, kerosene, stove oil, diesel oil, heating
oil, greases, lubricating oils, paraffins, asphalt;
versatile small volume
 Coal
Used directly as heat fuel or as fuel for the
generation of electricity
 Natural Gas
Used directly as heat fuel or as fuel for the
operation of appliances
11
Photosynthesis
Energy from the SUN taken up by plants:
 CO2 + H2O + PAR -> CH2O + O2
 PAR = photosynthetically-active radiation
 CH2O = organic matter
 Storage of chemical potential energy
“Biomass” - carbon storage in plants; “old biomass” used to refer to
plant and animal materials that are used as fuel, e.g., firewood and
dung; “new biomass” to energy crops (switchgrass, corn)
12
Energy from Earth’s Crust
Source: G. Tyler Miller, Sustaining the Earth, 1994


Fossil fuel energy sources come from the Earth’s crust: coal, oil, natural
gas; geothermal energy
Uranium ore is also extracted from the crust and processed for use in
nuclear fuel plants
13
Country Groupings
14
World Energy Consumption
15
World Energy by Fuel Type
16
17
Energy Consumption and C emissions, 1990-2020
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
(Million Metric Tons Carbon
Equivalent)
Energy Consumption
(Quadrillion Btu)
Region
1990
1999
2010
2020
182.4
209.6
243.4
270.4
76.3
50.5
60.3
Asia
51.0
70.9
Middle East
13.1
Industrialized
EE/FSU
1990
1999
2010
2020
2,842
3,122
3,619
4,043
72.3
1,337
810
940
1,094
113.4
162.2
1,053
1,361
2,137
3,013
19.3
26.9
37.2
231
330
451
627
9.3
11.8
16.1
20.8
179
218
294
373
13.7
19.8
29.6
44.1
178
249
394
611
87.2
121.8
186.1
264.4
1,641
2,158
3,276
4,624
346.0
381.8
489.7
607.1
5,821
6,091
7,835
9,762
Developing
Africa
Central and South America
Total
Total World
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 1999, DOE/EIA-0219(99)
(Washington, DC, January 2001). Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System (2001).
18
Reserves and Resources
Terms are often confused:
Reserves are the proven supplies that can be extracted and brought to
market economically
Resources represent the total quantity - found and yet to be discovered
Planning (and prices) are based on reserves!
19
role of coal !
20
US uses ~7bbl/yr in 2000)
21
22
23
GLOBAL OIL FOR RESOURCES OF 1800, 2200, AND 2600 billion of barrels
(Hubbert’s peak)
35
Billions of Barrels per Year
2600
30
25
20
2200
15
1800
10
5
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
24
25
26
World’s coal reserves are
greater and more evenly
distributed that oil and gas
reserves
27
28
Rich vs. Poor
Geology is not “fair”: energy resources are unevenly distributed.
The developed world:
 25% of world’s population
 67% of world’s fossil fuel resources
Use is yet more uneven:
The United States:
 ~ 4% of world’s population (.28/6)
 Uses ~24% of all energy produced
India
 ~ 16% of world’s population (.98/6)
 Uses ~2% of all energy produced
29
US Energy Flow, 1999
(Quadrillion (1E15) Btu)
1 quad = 1E15 British thermal
units = 2.9E11 kWh
Average energy consumption in US is 0.4E–6 quads/person/year, and US population is
about 5% of Earth. Energy consumption is large compared with food consumption (1.2E4
kJ/day/person, which translates to only 0.4E–8 quads/person/year).
Corresponding numbers for world energy consumption for 1999, are: petroleum 149.7;
natural gas 87.3; coal 84.9; nuclear 25.2; hydro, geothermal, solar, wind and other
renewables 29.9; total world energy production is ~380 quads.
(Nature 414, 332 - 337 (15 Nov 2001) Insight)
30
US Energy – Past, Present and Future
Transition from “old” biomass
(wood) to coal to other fossil fuels
(gas, oil), which characterizes the
pattern of many developed
countries
31
US Energy – Overview (2000)
Consumption/person
Consumption/source
32
US Energy Production, Consumption and Imports
(1970-2000)
Edwin L. Drake’s
first oilwell, 1859
33
Arctic Refuge Drilling
Cumulative Savings from Higher Fuel
Economy vs. Cumulative Oil Production
from the Arctic Refuge
NB ANWR oil may be as much as 15bbls, ~2
years of US needs.
Source: NRDC, 2001
34
•Ultimate source of energy is
Sun (99%)
•Humans add ~1% commercial
and noncommercial energy
•Commercial energy, sold in
marketplace, mostly fossil fuels
•Noncommercial energy, mostly
firewood
35
Renewable Energy Sources
Of the total of known energy reserves and potentially available
resources in the U.S., 92% are from renewable sources:







Biomass (firewood, dung)
Hydropower (rivers)
Solar (panels, cells)
Sea (waves, tides, currents, thermal)
Geothermal (Earth’s internal heat)
Wind (windmills)
Nuclear (uranium)
Developing most of the untapped renewable energy resources
could meet 50-80% of the projected US energy needs by 2030.
36
NREL website
37
Photovoltaic Cells
 Convert light energy into electricity
 PV systems can be constructed to any size based on
individual energy requirements, and are low-maintenance
 Ideal for supplying power to homes far from utility power
lines in remote areas where losses are relatively high
(Image from US
Nat. Renewable
Energy Lab)
38
Wind
Wind in the United States could produce
more than 4.4 trillion kWh of electricity
each year--more than and the 2.7 trillion
kWh of electricity consumed in the
United States (1990).
39
Hydropower
 Use the kinetic energy of falling water to
generate electricity.
 A turbine and a generator convert the energy
from the water to mechanical and then
electrical energy.
 Most "green" energy is from dams.
Hydropower accounts for about 10% of
generated electricity in the US.
 Dams do not contribute to global warming,
but have harmful effects on rivers (including
alteration of flow regime, killing fish and
altering vegetation). Some companies are
now offering a new category of energy:
“salmon-friendly.”
40
Geothermal Power
 Geothermal resources range from
shallow to deep (several miles) below
Earth's surface.
 Three types: geothermal heat
pumps, direct-use applications, and
power plants.
Natural steam from production wells
powers a turbine generator, producing
white plumes of water vapor.
41
Biomass
 Biomass is organic material that
stems from plants, trees, and crops.
 Largest contribution to energy
consumption in developing countries,
traditionally used as firewood for
cooking and heating.
 Modern uses include combustion to
produce energy in the form of
electricity, steam and biofuels.
(Image from US Nat. Renewable Energy Lab)
42
Relative cost (c/kWh) and “Learning Curve”
geothermal
biomass
hydro
gas
coal
wind
Nuclear
Solar therm
Photovoltaic
0
20
40
Learning curve and buy-down cost for an advanced energy technology. The incremental cost for buying down
the cost of the advanced technology relative to the conventional technology is shown, as the advanced
technology moves along its learning curve. The area between the curves indicates the total cost for buying
down the cost of the advanced technology to the level at which the advanced technology is competitive with the
conventional technology. The point where costs for advanced and conventional technologies are equal does not
necessarily represent the asymptotic (long-term) market price for the advanced technology
43
Nuclear Power (Fission)
•
•
•
No new nuclear reactors ordered in
the United States since partial core
meltdown at Three Mile Island in
1979.
New designs such as breeder
reactors may be more efficient, but
still have same problems of radiation
risk and waste disposal. Pebble bed
reactors may limit arms proliferation
risk.
Nuclear Revival? After 20 years and
$4 billion, Yucca Mountain has been
officially recommended (2002) by the
Dept. of Energy for long term storage
of US nuclear waste. State and xcountry transportation issues remain.
44
Renewable Sources

120

Photovoltaic
Wind
100
80
60

40
20

2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
0
1980
Cents per kilowatt-hr
140

Compare with ~3 cents per kWh for
conventional power stations

Renewable sources of energy have
undergone significant technological
development, with costs lowered
Nuclear power has been an unfulfilled
dream, stifled by problems with waste,
cost and reliability.
Wind systems are capital intensive, but
easy to operate
Danish offshore wind farms pipe energy
over fiber optic cables and generate 10%
of the country’s energy in 2000
Equatorial countries have considerable
potential for solar systems
California expects to generate ~10% by
wind energy in early 21st century
45
Current Status and Potential Future Costs of Renewable Energy
Technologies
(Source: UNDP World Energy Assessment, 2000)
46
Renewables - potential
47
Energy
New Approaches and Social Issues
Approaches
• efficiency
• alternatives
Social Issues
• wealth
• urbanization
• health
• etc……
48
Fuel Cells
http://www.fuelcells.org/
 A fuel cell system which includes a "fuel reformer" can utilize the hydrogen from any
hydrocarbon fuel - from natural gas to methanol, and even gasoline.
 Since the fuel cell relies on chemistry and not combustion, emissions from this type of a
system would still be much smaller than emissions from the cleanest fuel combustion
processes.
49
50
Energy-Releasing Reactions
Chemical
Fission
Fusion
Sample Reaction
C + O2 -> CO2
n + U-235 ->
Ba-143 + Kr-91 + 2 n
H-2 + H-3 ->
He-4 + n
Typical Inputs (to Power Plant)
Bituminous
Coal
UO2
(3% U-235 + 97% U-238)
Deuterium &
Lithium
Typical Reaction Temperature
(K)
700
1000
108
Energy Released per kg of Fuel
(J/kg)
3.3 x 107
2.1 x 1012
3.4 x 1014
51
Energy Use and Wealth




Near direct proportionality
between wealth and energy
usage.
Countries with effective energy
conservation programs (such as
Switzerland, Japan, Sweden,
Denmark) have far lower energy
consumption rates than the US.
In the case of Japan, this is
perhaps because of the paucity of
local sources of energy - they
have to pay.
Several Middle Eastern countries
use much more energy per capita
than we do. Qatar uses energy
mainly for air conditioning and
water desalinization.
Source: Cunningham and Saigo, 1990
52
Commercial Energy Use Compared to Development Indicators
Source: World Bank, 1997 (In UNDP World Energy Assessment)
53
Changes in GDP, Population, Primary Energy Use, and Electricity
in OECD Countries, 1960-97
(Source: IEA, 1999, in UNDP World Energy Assessment)
54
Changes in
GDP,
Population,
Primary Energy
Use, and
electricity use by
region
(IEA, 1999, in UNDP
World Energy
Assessment)
55
Global Primary Energy Requirements, 1850-1990,
and in three cases, 1990-2100
(Source: Nakicenovik, Grubler, and McDonald, 1998, in UNDP World Energy Assessment)
56
Primary Energy Shares, 1850-1990, and in Scenarios to 2100
(Source: Nakicenovik, Grubler, and McDonald, 1998, in UNDP World Energy Assessment)
57
Efficiency
• reduce energy use (conservation)
• optimize energy use (efficiency)
Anecdotes:
heating efficiency and electricity generation
car mileage and traffic
58
Efficiency Example
uranium
mining
uranium
100%
uranium
Power
processing
plant
and transportation
95%
window transmission
Sunlight
100%
54%
Transmission Resistance
heating
17%
14%
14%
Waste
84%
90%
10%
Compares two ways of heating: by electricity from nuclear
power plant and by passive solar heating
59
Energy Efficiency
Energy In
biomass
avoidable loss
hydro-geo-solar
unavoidable loss
nuclear
fossil fuels
0
20 40 60 80 100 0
•
Energy Out
–
–
–
–
–
–
petrochemicals
•
•
useful energy
10
20
30
40
Energy efficiencies
fuel cell 60%
steam turbine 45%
internal combustion 10%
fluorescent light 22%
incandescent light 5%
Human body 20-25%
Leads to unavoidable waste energy
Avoidable energy waste is still ~40%!
50
60
61
62
Prospects
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Realizable energy efficiencies:
Source: Kaufman and Franz
2020
2015
2010
Refrigeration (87%)
Air conditioning (75%)
Electric water heat (75%)
Electric range (50%)
Gas furnace (59%)
Gas Water heater (63%)
Gas range (64%)
2005
2000
1995
Savings
Alaska
1990
Millions of barrels per day
Energy efficiency is the first order of business
63
The Fuelwood Crisis
Deficits
Prospective
deficits






More than 2 billion people rely on wood to cook (3kg/day); more than 1 billion are
over-cutting available trees
For the poorest one third of humanity the real energy crisis is wood
Fuelwood can account for up to two-fifths of family income
Population growth exacerbates problem
Desertification in the Sahel one consequence
The lack of firewood leads to the burning of dung which otherwise would be a
natural fertilizer
64
Commercial Energy Use by Region, 1970-98
(Source: BP, 1999, in UNDP World Energy Assessment)
65
World Primary Energy Consumption, 1998
(Source: UNDP World Energy Assessment, 2000)
66
(UNDP World Energy Assessment, 2000)
67
Energy (in formulas)
Work = Force x Distance (= m . a . d)
N.m = Joule
Energy of motion:
d = average velocity x time = t x (vo+vf)/2 ; v0 =0
E = m . a . t . ½ vf ; vf = a . t
= m . vf . ½ vf
= ½ mvf2
Energy of position:
E =mxaxh
68
69
Oil, Gas and Coal Reserves (2000)
70
US Energy Source Distribution
Worldwide
North America
Natural gas provides us with a larger share
relative to the rest of the world because we have
a continent-wide pipeline system
(Cunningham and Saigo, 1990)
71
US Energy Flow by Resource, 2000
Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Electricity
72
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