ILCFY09_budgetRetreat_Grannis

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U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Science

The ILC Program

Paul Grannis

March 14, 2006

Much progress, much that could have gone wrong has not … but like

Sisyphus we must continue to push the boulder up the hill. The ILC still has a long road ahead.

1

U.S. Department of Energy

Outline

Office of Science

1. GDE Reference Design & cost estimate (3 – 12)

2. Global R&D program (13 – 18)

3. US R&D and regional interests (19 – 26)

4. Detector R&D (27 – 29)

5. Multiyear R&D/SCRF plan (30 – 39)

(the main message)

6. International organization (40)

U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Science

GDE Organization

GDE has ~65 members, equally from Asia, Europe and Americas

Willis, chair

Barish, director

Mike Harrison will replace Dugan on

May 1 as ART director

Dugan, Raubenheimer

Garbincius, chair

Phinney, chair

US scientists play key roles in the ILC

U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Science

GDE Organization

Civil and facilities support

Main organization so far (e.g. for cost rollup, RDR) along area systems.

Engineering design phase will have more emphasis on technical and global systems.

U.S. Department of Energy

Design changes for cost control

Office of Science

Single e+ target; combine esource pre-accel’s ($80M)

Simplify RTML ($150M)

Electron source and damping rings from ends to central complex ($180M)

One positron damping ring. Reduced rf in DR; consolidate layout for civil constr. savings ($250M)

One IR with 14 mrad crossing –

Two detectors push/pull.

Remove 2 nd muon wall. ($410M)

Modify rf unit – 24 → 26 cavities. Reduce rf and cryo static load overheads ($220M)

Relative to Baseline in July ’06, the RDR design reduced cost by 28%.

Value engineering and preferential sources (capitalize on low labor costs in India, China etc.) to be done. Still to be considered – 1 tunnel; shallow construction, reduced rf…

U.S. Department of Energy

Value Estimate

Office of Science

Total Value = $8.2B (FY07$)

Little contingency included; no escalation; no detectors

 Use lowest reasonable tender worldwide for generally available items.

 Estimate person-hrs of ‘explicit’ labor to be supplied through labs or contracts.

 High tech components estimated in each region – many agree but cavity costs less in Europe than Asia, Americas.

 Civil costs for 3 sample sites done in each region – they agree very well despite geological, regional differences.

 International RDR/value cost review in

May 23 – 25 (in Orsay).

 DOE has deferred its plan to officially translate value estimate into US cost methodology.

U.S. Department of Energy

Value by area system

Office of Science

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Main

Linac

Maroon shaded areas are the civil construction components.

DR RTML e+

Source

BDS Common Exp Hall e-

Source

U.S. Department of Energy

Value by technical/global system

Office of Science

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

CF&S

Cavities & CM

RF Power

Cryogenics

Magnets & PS

Controls

Vacuum

Instrumentation

Dumps & Collim

Installation e+ specific e- specific

DR specific

0

C

F&

S

C av iti es

&

C

M

R

F

P ow er

C ry og en ic s

M ag ne ts

&

P

S

C on tro ls

V ac uu m

In st ru m en ta tio n ps

&

D um

C ol lim

In st al la tio n e+

s pe ci fic e-

s pe ci fic

D

R

s pe ci fic

Confidential – contains vendor sensitive information

U.S. Department of Energy

Manpower distribution

Office of Science

6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00

In st al la tio n

M an ag

(a ll la bo r) em en

C av t ( iti

1/ es

2

SS

&

C

C ry

L) om

C on tro ls

& od ul es pu tin g

C om ow er

S

R

F

P ys te m

A s lig nm en t

C ry og

In st en ic ru m s en ta tio n

S

(c

D

R on

s pe st ru ct io e+ ci fic n ph as e)

S ou rc e sp ec

C

F& ifi c

V ac uu m

R

TM

L sp ec ifi c

C ol lim ps

& e-

S ou rc

D um at or s e sp ec ifi c

“management” captures SWF overheads

Installation (all labor)

Management (1/2 SSCL)

Cavities & Cryomodules

Controls & Computing

RF Power Systems

Alignment

Cryogenics

Instrumentation

DR specific

CF&S (construction phase) e+ Source specific

Vacuum

RTML specific

Dumps & Collimators e- Source specific

U.S. Department of Energy

OHEP (PG) value estimate conversion

Office of Science

Assume:

 ILC sited in US

Please keep confidential

 Construction funding starts in FY2013, lasts 8 years

 Contingency: 10% on civil construction (Value Est has 20% already)

40% on shared M&S; 30% on explicit labor

 Add overheads on M&S (GDE included SWF overheads)

 US pays 50% -- site specific costs; 33% of shared; 63% of labor.

 ‘Project-like’ profile; civil construction front loaded.

 Escalate to then year: 4.6% civil constr., 3% M&S, 3.5% SWF

 US does 1/3 of 2 detectors @ $500M each (FY007)

‼ Not a detailed value to cost translation (should do overheads, ‼

‼ contingencies, escalation factors by work packages. ‼

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

U.S. Department of Energy

OHEP conversion of value estimate

Office of Science

US portion inflated (AY $M)

Site specific

Shared

Explicit manpower

TOTAL US with contngy, inflated

2013

576

158

81

814

1600

2014

754

345

104

1202

Above costs are TEC, not TPC. Table does not include $AY442M for detectors; graph does.

1400

1200

1000

$1000M

800

2015

788

382

151

1321

2016

462

610

223

1295

2017

86

703

277

1066

2018

90

651

311

1052

2019

0

454

347

800

2020

0

35

256

291

Total

2756

3337

1750

7843

ILC project

Detector

PED

SCRF

ILC/Site

ILC project

Detector

PED

SCRF

ILC/Site

R&D and PED

(see later)

600

400

200

0

FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020

200

0

FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020

U.S. Department of Energy

GDE next steps

Office of Science

With the RDR finalized in mid-summer, GDE will enter its engineering design phase, aimed at producing the EDR by beginning FY2010.

 Produce comprehensive, global R&D plan (see below)

 Add project management, engineering staff to GDE (grow the GDE by x2 to x3)

 Value engineering, cost reduction, alternate technology choices

 Develop work packages (started in Beijing); assign to laboratories.

Need better defined authority for GDE to manage the EDR effort (see below)

 EDR= full engineering design for key components (cavities, cryomodules, damping rings, civil construction etc.); detailed conceptual design for more straightforward systems.

 Final engineering design requires site – geological, local infrastructure, safety and environmental regulations.

U.S. Department of Energy

Global R&D planning

Office of Science

 OMB has indicated that ILC R&D budget increases will require an international R&D agreement (similar to the ITER EDA agreement).

 FALC terms of reference include: “to work towards an appropriate organisational structure of the GDE for the engineering design phase.”

 The DOE/NSF ART review of 4/06 requested a US R&D plan; this exists in draft, but it requires a global plan.

 GDE advocates a sufficiently formal international organization that it has the authority needed to manage the global R&D and

EDR activities. ITER had a rather formal MoU for its EDR phase.

Getting this international R&D agreement is a key step, difficult to achieve.

U.S. Department of Energy

Global R&D planning

Office of Science

In 2006, the GDE R&D Board (RDB) prepared a list of all proposed

R&D efforts and attached a general priority for each (on a 1 to 4 scale). These were used as a part of the US R&D planning process to prioritize the effort for FY07 to FY09. However, this list does not address the necessary decision points, deliverables, resource, coordination of international effort. Needs to be ‘projectized’.

Starting in mid-2006, RDB has set up task forces to prepare a more project-like R&D plan in each of the main ILC systems. These are now expected to report for GDE approval by mid-2007.

Taken together, these task force plans should constitute a reasonable R&D project plan.

A key ingredient of the plan is setting up work packages, and their assignment to specific labs or consortia.

U.S. Department of Energy

R&D task forces

Office of Science

S0 – Cavity gradient and yield demonstration

S1 – Cryomodule (8 or 9 cavities) demonstration

S2 – rf units (string) tests

S3 – Damping rings

S4 – Beam delivery system

S5 – Electron and positron sources

S6 – Global systems: controls, machine protection, BPMs etc.

S7 – High power rf systems

U.S. Department of Energy

S0 R&D

Office of Science

The goal : demonstrate 35 MV/m gradient cavities with 95% yield in < 2 processes (and 10% gradient spread).

The challenge is to demonstrate the surface processing method, and to migrate cavity fabrication to industry.

Plan: a) Tight loop – cavities processed in each region swapped, reprocessed to demonstrate consistency and determine optimum process method.

b) Industrial batches of 25 - 50: migrate learning to industry and provide cavity base for cryomodule tests.

← more tunnel, cavities more cryogenic plant →

EDR gradient choice by mid 2009. If drop gradient to XFEL value, ILC cost up 7%.

U.S. Department of Energy

S0 R&D in US

Office of Science

First US processed TESLA cavity

(from ACCEL). JLab electropolish, rinse, bake cycle – on third process step – reached 42 MV/m with acceptable Q.

1 st AES cavity now to 16 MV/m

New processing facility at ANL to double number of processes per year.

New electopolish technique in operation at Cornell.

Other R&D topics: materials properties, large grain Nb material, alternate shapes with low B surface

.

U.S. Department of Energy

Other task forces

Damping rings : control e-cloud via coatings, grooves, solenoids. Lab tests are promising; test in e+ beams underway. Proposal to use CESR as DR test facility.

Fast kicker: 2 ns rise time pulser demonstrated, need demo with real magnets.

Positron target : spinning wheel to control ΔT in high

B field. Lab tests confirm calculations.

RF power: Marx modulator prototype works

(120kV, 1.4 ms), potential $180M savings.

Toshiba MB klystron operates at full power, twice design rep rate. Sheet beam klystron R&D at

SLAC. Simpler rf distribution under study.

U.S. Department of Energy

US FY2007 R&D planning

Office of Science

ART budget process for FY2007 was driven by proposals from Labs

– awkward as it brought ~$110M requests and prioritization process was tough with labs arguing for their piece of the pie.

Iterate with GDE RDB, Labs, DOE.

Did initial plan for $60M

(President’s budget). Then $45M

(Senate mark). Now have guidance of $42M ($45M case with reduced reserve since so far along in fiscal year).

MACHINE AREA

Program direction and administration

Management

Global systems

Electron sources

Positron sources

Damping rings

Ring to Main Linac

Main Linacs: Optics, beam dynamics, instrumentation

Main Linacs: RF systems

Main Linacs: Cavities and Cryomodules

Beam delivery system

Conventional facilities

TDR Engineering Support

Reserve

Regional Interest

DOE

FY07

Total

$716

$7,421

$13,252

$2,336

$845

$2,588

$3,000

$1,032

$2,532

$1,009

$2,649

$793

$1,521

$1,994

$253

$41,940

U.S. Department of Energy

US R&D project organization

Office of Science

For FY2008, re-organize to WBS structure with WBS managers prioritizing and managing each WBS level 2 project.

WBS x .y

x=1: Program Administration x=2: Technical design x=3: R&D x=4: unused x=5: Test facil, infrastructure x=6: Reserve (& detectors) x=7: Regional interest y=1: Management – Dugan (Harrison) y=2: Global systems - Cawardine (Larsen) y=3: Electron sources - Brachmann (Poelker) y=4: Positron sources – Sheppard (Gronberg) y=5: Damping rings – Zisman (Palmer) y=6: Ring to main linac – Tenenbaum (Solyak) y=7: Main linac optics, bm dynamics (Tenenbaum, Solyak) y=8: Main linac rf systems -Adolphsen (Nagaitsev) y=9: Main linac cavities, cryomodules - Mishra, (Padamsee) y=10: Beam delivery system – Seryi (Parker) y=11: Conventional facilities – Kuchler (Asiri) y-=12: Pure regional interest – Kephart (Paterson)

US is active in every

ILC area system.

U.S. Department of Energy

US R&D FY2008, FY2009

Office of Science

In FY2008, initiated SCRF line for R&D, test infrastructure, industrialization of cavities, cryomodules, rf units, materials studies based on wider application of SCRF to DOE/SC facilities. ILC is the prime driver for SCRF in the near term.

SCRF line budget limited to cavity-related work; ILC specific line can contain SCRF as well as all other aspects of ILC.

Ask ART guidance for two targets spanning a range.

Target 1

FY2008 FY2009

ILC SCRF ILC

$75M $0M $90M

SCRF

$0M

Target 2

FY2008 FY2009

ILC SCRF ILC SCRF

$75M $45M $90M $45M

ART planned the 2+ year R&D program around these guidances, thus defining a US R&D plan. Extrapolation to out-years is relatively straightforward.

U.S. Department of Energy

ART R&D planning – example

Office of Science

Cavity procure, process, cryomodule assembly/test, string test by FY (Target 1)

FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010

Cavity procure/ test

Cryomodule assembly/ test rf unit test

U.S. Department of Energy

SCRF infrastructure – FNAL plan

Office of Science

Cavity

Fabrication

Pass!

Horizontal

Testing

Fail!

Surface

Processing

HPR or reprocess

Cold String Assembly

Fail!

Vertical

Testing

He Vessel, couplers, tuner

Pass!

Plan… Develop in labs then transfer technology to industry

U.S. Department of Energy

SCRF infrastructure – FNAL plan

FNAL SCRF Review Feb. 13-14. Develop the infrastructure needed to advance SCRF capability in US for broader use in new DOE facilities.

A multiyear proposal for materials R&D, cavity fabrication, processing, testing, cryomodule tests, string tests. Funds for industrialization not included.

Recommendations: more engagement with other SCRF centers; attention to industrialization plan; raise priority of cavity processing facility.

Infrastructure M&S SWF

Total with

Indirect

Cavity Fabrication Infrastructure

Cavity Processing Facilities

Vertical Test Stand (VTS 2 & 3)

Horizontal Test Stand (HTS 2)

$ 3,000 $ 675 $ 4,380

$ 11,100 $ 4,590 $ 18,945

$ 2,625 $ 1,845 $ 5,475

$ 1,220 $ 1,057 $ 2,805

Cavity/Cryomodule Assembly Facilties (CAF_MP9 & ICB) $ 690 $ 270 $ 1,158

NML Facility (ILCTA_NML) $ 18,270 $ 23,220 $ 51,700

Cryogenics for Test Facilities

Cryomodule Test Stand

Material R&D

Illinois Accelerator Research Center

$ 10,690 $ 950 $ 13,692

$ 5,400 $ 2,970 $ 10,180

$ 870 $ 722 $ 1,960

$ 20,000 $ 4,050 $ 28,605

Grand Total ($k) $ 73,865 $ 40,349 $ 138,900

U.S. Department of Energy

SCRF infrastructure – FNAL plan

Office of Science

More real?

Technically limited

FY07 funds to finish VTS1, HTS1,…

Not included in White Paper request

Total M&S Cost with Indirects = $89,300

U.S. Department of Energy

US specific activities

Office of Science

SCRF Industrialization:

Funds are needed to bring industry up to speed in SC cavity and cryomodule fabrication and test. Estimate (FNAL) was $5.5M in FY08 and FY09.

Site characterization:

ILC R&D funds must cover US site-specific effort – geological studies, environmental impact, site layout etc. GDE/FNAL estimates US sitespecific need: $59M for Title I, and $137M for Title II, spread over several years (out to FY2012).

Also need some GDE sample site work – design shallow tunnel site, value engineering, etc. ($30M)

LCSGA subpanel (S. Ozaki chair) has considered these needs and advised on priorities and budget profile. ART has folded these recommendations into the overall budget guidance.

U.S. Department of Energy

Generic detector R&D

Office of Science

US detector R&D lags behind that in Europe, Japan

Analysis from end 2005

FY2006 funding: ~$5.5M at labs; $1.35M at universities (DOE $1.05M,

NSF $0.3M).

New FNAL test beam; losing SLAC test beam (SABER transfer line?)

Funding in Japan has increased in past year. Eurodet in Europe for next 3 years.

U.S. Department of Energy

Detector R&D

Office of Science

Planning detector R&D program is less advanced than for accelerator.

Asked for US R&D plan (goals, milestones, resource needs) coordinating labs and universities. DOE/NSF review June 19, 20. Expect request of

~$15M per year. University grants via Oregon umbrella.

Global detector R&D program is being reviewed by WWS (with GDE RDB observing) – gather information, give advice on coordinating and prioritizing the program. Tracking detectors in Beijing (Feb.);

Calorimetry in Hamburg (June); Vertex detectors in FNAL (October);

Muon/PID/LEP next year.

‘Supplemental requests’ for FY2007 totalling $1.5M. These provide deliverable hardware for tests in beam and labs. Still hope to fund about

$0.8M of these. Also, third year of umbrella grant funds at universities: hoped to do at $2M level, will now scale back to last year level of ~$1.2M. Need help in finding FY2007 detector R&D funds (Not on the explicit ILC line).

U.S. Department of Energy

Detector concepts

Office of Science

The reference design provides for two detectors, moving on or off the

IP in about 1 week (and several month intervals). The experimental community remains nervous about this arrangement, but it was supported by the ILCSC parameters group.

Four detector concepts have emerged (Detector Reference Document to come will summarize).

 LCD – TPC based tracking, SiW EM calorimeter;

 GLD – TPC based tracking, Scintillator cal; largest concept

 SiD – silicon based tracking; fine grained SiW EM cal; smallest

 4 th – TPC, compensating coarse grain calorimeter, no flux return Fe

Transition from generic to full concept detectors is not well planned; concepts have more regional flavor than desirable. Detector effort is not incorporated into GDE, so no central management of process (e.g. transition from 4 to 2 detectors).

U.S. Department of Energy

ART R&D/SCRF current request

Office of Science

MACHINE AREA

Lab program direction and administration

Management

Global systems

Electron sources

Positron sources

Damping rings

Ring to Main Linac

Main Linacs: Optics, instrumentation

Main Linacs: RF systems

Main Linacs: Cavities and Cryomodules

Beam delivery system

Conventional facilities

Regional interest (siting only)

RDR/TDR engineering

Univ Program + Reserve

TOTAL ILC line

Detectors

SRF Infrastructure &

Industrialization

Overall total: ILC+SRF

Actual

FY06

$2,892

$1,039

$1,158

$658

$1,988

$2,156

$214

$1,096

$4,311

$7,344

$2,883

$1,042

Expected

FY07

$1,665

$1,254

$29,700

Proposed

FY08

Request

FY09

$2,792

$1,009

$2,649

$793

$1,521

$1,994

$253

$3,300

$1,400

$5,600

$1,400

$2,300

$3,000

$500

$716

$7,555

$13,252

$2,336

$2,500

$9,000

$12,500

$4,500

$3,600

$14,800

$16,300

$6,600

$845

$1,032

$1,200

$2,800

$1,500

$5,800

$2,588 (in above) (in above)

$2,366 $4,000 $5,100

$41,700

$2,000

$54,000

$6,000

$83,000

$7,000

$4,000

$2,500

$7,000

$3,000

$4,800

$6,500

$1,500

$12,000

$41,700

$4,900

$48,600

$23,400 $45,000

$83,400 $135,000

U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Science

R&D / technical design

My synthesis of R&D, EDR design,

US-specific profile

(in AY$M)

Administration and program mgmt

Global systems

Electron source

Positron source

Damping rings

Ring to ML

Main linac optics, instrumentation

RF power

Cavities and cryomodules

Beam delivery system

Generic civil and facilities

US site activities

Civil &facilities (global+US site)

Detectors

Reserve

TOTAL ILC R&D + design

0.7

7.9

14.7

2.5

0.8

1.0

1.8

FY2007

3.5

2.9

0.8

1.6

2.1

0.2

3.3

42.0

FY2008

4.7

5.6

1.4

2.3

3.0

0.5

2.5

9.0

12.5

4.5

1.2

2.8

4.0

6.0

4.0

60.0

5.1

90.0

$544M

FY2009

6.5

7.0

3.0

4.8

6.5

1.5

3.6

14.8

16.3

6.6

1.5

5.8

7.3

7.0

FY2010

7.0

7.0

2.0

5.0

6.0

1.0

3.0

13.0

40.0

7.0

19.0

30.0

49.0

10.0

10.0

160.0

FY2012

7.0

3.0

1.0

2.0

6.0

1.0

3.0

30.0

100.0

10.0

2.0

116.0

118.0

20.0

10.0

311.0

FY2011

7.0

3.0

1.0

2.0

6.0

1.0

3.0

15.0

51.0

7.0

1.0

70.0

71.0

15.0

10.0

192.0

TOT R&D

35.7

28.5

9.2

17.7

29.6

5.2

15.8

89.7

234.5

37.6

25.5

225.6

251.1

58.0

42.4

855.0

U.S. Department of Energy

Comments on proposed ILC R&D plan

Office of Science

The plan is predicated on a FY2013 start of construction funding.

FY2009 ILC R&D up to $90M as in guidance.

Major expenditure areas grow as project nears: Civil construction

(incl. US site), cavities and cryomodules, RF power, detector R&D.

Other areas increase moderately with time as R&D and design effort ramps up to a plateau.

FY2012 accelerator is probably all PED. In that year, I put in a substantial increase in cavity and cryomodules and reduced the corresponding ‘Industrialization’ line under SCRF (below).

Integrated (FY2007 to FY2012) ILC line R&D funding:

ILC accelerator R&D (2007 – 11):

ILC accelerator PED (2012):

US site development:

Detector R&D:

$364M (cf EPP2010 $300 - $500M)

$165M

$226M

$58M

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

6.0

5.0

8.0

7.0

FY2007

U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Science

$5M

Profile for smaller accelerator areas

FY2008 FY2009 FY2010

Many ILC areas ramp up to a plateau in preparation for the construction phase.

FY2011 FY2012

Management

Global systems electron src positron src

Damping rngs

RTML

ML optics, instrum

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0

140.0

120.0

100.0

FY2007 FY2008 FY2009

U.S. Department of Energy

Profile for ILC major areas

Office of Science

The cost drivers for construction have a significant ramp in the PED phase.

Includes final industrialization

$100M

RF power

Cavities

Civil construct

Detectors

FY2010 FY2011 FY2012

U.S. Department of Energy

Superconducting rf line

Office of Science

Based on FNAL-proposed SCRF work to develop test facilities needed to develop

ILC capability and provide infrastructure for future SC facilities.

Industrialization estimate from FNAL, extrapolated to out years; FY2012 industrialization captured on ILC line under cavities/cryomodules.

Placeholder $10M > FY2013

$30M

FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012

* Should SCRF management be divorced from ART?

SCRF Infrastructure

SCRF Industrialization

TOTAL SCRF infrastruct/industry

FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 TOTAL

20.4

45.0

45.0

20.0

20.0

150.4

3.0

23.4

8.0

53.0

15.0

60.0

20.0

40.0

0.0

20.0

46.0

196.4

1600

1400

U.S. Department of Energy

Profile: R&D, SCRF, PED, project

1200

1000

800

Office of Science

1600

1400

(Same plot as shown earlier)

ILC project

Detector

PED

SCRF

ILC/Site

600

400

1200

$1000M

1000

800

600

400

200

200

0

0

FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020

FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020

ILC project

Detector

PED

SCRF

ILC/Site

U.S. Department of Energy

ILC – proposed vs. SC guidance

Office of Science

ILC R&D proposed tracks guidance until FY2010. Effect of FY2011 and 2012 shortfall is hard to quantify – it depends on success of prior year R&D, and on worldwide effort.

11

∫ $ dt = $510M

07 in guidance.

11

∫ $ dt = $562M

07 in PG version.

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

U.S. Department of Energy

SCRF – proposed vs. SC guidance

SCRF budget is significantly lower than guidance; integral proposed to 2011 is $181M; guidance integral is $96M. At guidance level, based on SCRF review at Fermilab, the US would not obtain string test facility with beam injected. With SCRF line guidance, have to integrate to 2016 to reach $181M.

The string test facility is not needed 3 places in the world.

But there should be one at the host site, so each region plans such a facility to position itself as a potential site.

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

Failing to provide string test capability at Fermilab would jeopardize the US bid to host.

Stretching SCRF delays ability to validate ILC design.

U.S. Department of Energy

Stretch-out savings ?

Office of Science

Suppose that we stretch out the end of the R&D phase from 2011 to 2015 (thus the year of PED ramp-up is 2016).

Keep the integral of SWF fixed, but slower ramp up (I took SWF =

55% of total) but take into account inflation.

Don’t worry now about the SCRF and ILC division (it requires some transfer from ILC to SCRF infrastructure).

Evaluate how much savings relative to SC guidance is generated, assuming that the integral of M&S need (the other 45% of total) remains fixed.

ANSWER: Nothing (actual savings in my exercise was $15M, but that would be eaten by inflation).

INTERPRETATION: The guidance profile and the GDE/ART/PG estimates of need for ILC R&D and SCRF do not allow savings for

‘new interim initiatives’.

U.S. Department of Energy

International issues

Office of Science

ILCSC has oversight responsibility for GDE (International review, parameters specification, Machine Advisory Committee etc.)

FALC discusses, promotes international cooperation – no management).

OMB stipulated that there should be international agreement for GDE

EDR phase. FALC includes ‘work towards …’ in Terms of reference.

GDE needs more formal authority to execute MoUs for EDR work packages and coordinate the effort.

 Best if FALC could generate an international agreement for R&D phase over next 3 – 4 years. Some discussion of trying to do this via bilateral agreements.

 Putting a site proposal and selection process is becoming critical.

Getting international agreements and site process is becoming the most critical issue for ILC progress.

U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Science

Backups

U.S. Department of Energy

ILC Technically Limited

Timeline (GDE ‘plan’)

Office of Science

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Global Design Effort Project

Baseline configuration

Reference Design

LHC results: offramp opportunity

Technical Design

ILC R&D Program

Expression of Interest to Host

International Mgmt

U.S. Department of Energy

Cost information

Office of Science

Tesla TDR, and the subsequent US Options study report, give some indication of the expected cost. Translated into US accounting, all manpower, escalation, contingency, two tunnels, and detectors brings the Tesla estimate to $10 -

$13B, depending on potential cost savings.

Experience shows that 10-20% of TEC should be spent in R&D phase

(including PED?). By this rule of thumb, 15% translates to $400 – 800M on R&D in each region if this phase is equally shared across regions

U.S. Department of Energy

2. R&D issues – cavities and cryomodules

Office of Science

The cost drivers for ILC are the main linac cavities and cryomodules, the rf delivery system, and the civil construction (tunnels and infrastructure).

1. Cavities and cryomodules :

The BCD acceptance criterion for cavities is 35 MV/m. The ILC will operate at E

ACC

= 31.5 MV/M (10% operating margin).

A few cavities of this gradient have been fabricated for DESY; uniformity is not good (~30% spread);

Alternate designs (KEK, Cornell) with larger accelerating gradient (lower B at Nb surface) exist for single cell cavities (45 – 52 MV/m) ; however higher E

ACC comes with higher E field at Nb surface, hence more worry about field emission and dark current (radiation and cryo load).

The cost optimization curve vs. E

ACC is rather shallow; minimum around 40

MV/m is only a few % lower in cost than the 31.5 MV/m BCD.

Transfering the cavity production and processing to industry is key issue.

U.S. Department of Energy

Optimize cost vs. gradient

Office of Science

$

 a lin

G

 b cryo

G

2

Q

0

Relative cost

Gradient (MV/m)

C. Adolphsen / SLAC

U.S. Department of Energy

Need for improved cavity processing and reproducibility

Office of Science

TESLA cavities – grey after chemical polishing; black after electropolishing. Spread in gradient is too large.

Would like to get to ~10% spread; need work on processing control

U.S. Department of Energy

R&D issues – cavities and cryomodules

Office of Science

A significant cost for cavities arises from the complex conditioning procedure – buffered chemical processing, high pressure rinse, ultrapure water rinse & electropolishing (not well understood). R&D to understand and limit the need for these steps is desirable so as to reduce costs.

(Fermilab, ANL, JLab, Cornell)

Large grain Nb may allow reduced processing time – many surface issues seem related to grain boundaries. This is high priority R&D (JLab, FNAL)

High volume cavity production capability has not yet been achieved; it is probably necessary to fabricate the full set of cavities (~20,000) in all three regions. (Fermilab)

The cryomodule (eight 9-cell cavities) mechanical design needs to be redone; issues are the overall length, higher order mode beam monitors, quadrupole insertions, mechanical rigidity. (Fermilab)

U.S. Department of Energy

R&D issues – rf power systems

Office of Science

There is one modulator (ac to dc converter) and one klystron (rf power amplifier) for every three cryomodules (24 cavities).

Klystron pulse is 1.5 ms at 10 MW. Three vendors exist but existing klystrons show breakdown at high power. Klystron R&D needs to be pushed more than it is at present.

BCD choice for modulator is switched capacitor design; large, prone to failure. An alternate Marx generator design holds promise for more reliability and lower cost (SLAC, LLNL R&D).

Klystron costs are high; need close interaction with industry to bring down cost. Long term project needed.

U.S. Department of Energy

Test facilities

Office of Science

There need to be several large scale test facilities worldwide.

Coordination is difficult because they also serve national needs that GDE does not take as its responsibility.

At present, each region is planning on such facilities for the basic main linac components – cavities, cryomodules, rf power. STF at KEK,

TTF/XFEL at DESY, ILCTA at FNAL. Is this duplicative? Given the likely need to produce cavities in all regions, it may not be. In any case, each region wants to develop its SRF capabilities.

The US community believes that developing a mature SRF capability is key to making a credible bid to host.

Developing industrial capability is a key part of the US specific test activity.

Some part of the test facility development supports national priorities, and will buttress an eventual bid to host.

U.S. Department of Energy

Test facilities, US bid to host

Office of Science

Potential test facilities:

Cavity tests in horizontal and vertical dewars, cryomodules, cryomodule strings – feedback on surface preparation, gradient reproducibility, reliability of operation, beam tests to study dark current, cryo loading etc.

There should be a ‘string test’ of 1-2% of the full system.

Damping ring studies – low emittance preservation, instabilities, kickers, diagnostics, low level rf systems. Perhaps Cornell/NSF??

Klystron/modulator tests: SLAC has klystron test, not clear new need

Final focus studies (KEK ATF 2 aims at this.)

Without US capability in SRF production and testing, the US credibility as host would be impaired. US industry participation in the SC RF subsystems is a strong motivation in getting the support of Congress. ILC will likely need all three regions to produce cavities and cryomodules.

U.S. Department of Energy

Worldwide spending – accelerators – 2006

Office of Science

In Europe, CARE, EuroTeV, national budgets are roughly at the US level. The numbers for Europe have not yet been disentangled from generic R&D and CLIC etc. Handling of SWF is not converted properly to US practice yet.

In Asia, information only exists for KEK. They do not include SWF, travel, Japanese expenditures in industry, or non-Japanese funding.

The qualitative impression is that for FY06, the regional expenditures are roughly comparable.

Funds for the Reference Design Report and cost estimating

(engineering expertise) outside the US seem to be in short supply.

This is a problem for GDE at present.

U.S. Department of Energy

PG estimate of R&D need

Office of Science

FY

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011 total

R&D

$29

$40

Bid host Test fac.

Industr.

Detect.

Mgmt

$3 $15 $10 $10

$1

$1

$45

$45

$40

$40

$239

$4

$4

$4

$10

$25

$25

$15

$10

$20

$85

$22

$40

$90

$120

$282

$15

$15

$15

$15

$70

$2

$4

$4

$4

$16

Total

$30

$79

$113

$123

$163

$209

$717

U.S. Department of Energy

PG Guess at need for FY07 – FY11

Office of Science

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

1

FY06

2

FY07

3

FY08

4

FY09

5

FY10

6

FY11

Managemnt

Detector

Industry

Test Fac.

Civil

R&D

U.S. Department of Energy

R&D profile comparison

Office of Science

The OMB profile falls short of the ‘desired’ in the critical years

FY07 to FY09

$250

$100

$50

$0

$200

$150

Desired profile integral = $717M

OMB profile integral = $585M

Series1

Series2

U.S. Department of Energy

Budget impact on schedule

Office of Science

The ‘desired’ budget is consistent with having technical information and cost available in 2010 for a decision by governments to approve the ILC project. The detailed negotiation and establishing the organization would follow immediately. Given the time required to let contracts for tunnels, major technical systems, this would translate to construction start in 2012.

We estimate an 8 year construction period, so completion in ~2020.

The approximate impact of the OMB outyear guidance is to delay the technical readiness demonstration by about 1 year to permit a construction start in ~2013.

U.S. Department of Energy

Detector R&D in FY06

Office of Science

We have advice from Laboratories on detector R&D spending in FY06

SLAC

FNAL

ANL

LBNL

BNL

TOTAL 4332

SWF ($K)

2007

1635

355

335

100

1175

M&S ($K)

460

420

150

145

0

O’hds included

5507 total

University detector R&D

DOE University

NSF University

Total University

SWF ($K)

525

88

613

M&S ($K)

175

30

205

SWF/M&S splits are guesses

818 total

DOE+NSF

U.S. Department of Energy

Preliminary & confidential detector

R&D spending in various nations

Office of Science

High priority needs for detector R&D over the next 3 – 5 years

(Damerell report). ‘Established’ funding that is thought to be in hand (dark blue), and the ‘total’ thought needed (light blue).

$10M 600

M&S FTE’s

U.S. Department of Energy

Detector R&D

Office of Science

There are two main areas of high priority need for detector R&D in the US, and worldwide.

Energy flow calorimetry tests and simulations : ILC calorimeters seek to measure charged particles by tracking and subtract charged particle energy deposits in the calorimeter. It requires fine segmentation and new algorithms to separate charged and neutral.

Vertex detectors are key to physics such as Higgs branching ratios, searches for new phenomena. They need to be kept thin

(multiple scattering) and highly segmented and multiplexed. EM interference from the beam fields is an issue.

Both these high priority programs need high quality test beams . It would be good if Fermilab can provide this, and thus become the center for ongoing ILC R&D.

Other identified but unfunded needs are R&D on forward tracking

(not presently covered) and particle ID.

U.S. Department of Energy

Next steps for detector R&D

Office of Science

Test beam demonstration of particle flow calorimetry technique – so far its all on paper!

Establish choices for vertex detector technology – winnow the 10 candidates down to a few most promising.

Develop and test the new GEM/micromega detectors for TPC readout.

Test beam studies and make choices for detector technology for hadron calorimetry – RPC’s, scintillator tiles, GEMs. Experimental study of digital vs. analog hadron calorimetry.

Building the detectors takes almost as long as accelerator; should plan to have firm technical designs by end of decade.

U.S. Department of Energy

5. Governmental activities –

FALC and beyond

Office of Science

Funding Agencies for Linear Collider (FALC) formed in 2003

Typically Science Minister level, but variable (from DOE, Orbach and

Staffin; NSF is Turner).

Nations involved:

US, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy, CERN (for smaller CERN member states), Japan, Korea, India, (China).

Roberto Petronzio of INFN Italy is the current chair.

FALC formed the FALC Resources Group to conduct more detailed discussions and fact finding.

ILCSC chair now sits on FALC and FALC RG; FALC Res. Gp. invited to

ILCSC to give coordination. ILCSC (not FALC) is the responsible body for

GDE oversight.

U.S. Department of Energy

Toward ILC organization and site

Office of Science

Site and organization are interrelated – each action requires some input from the other.

Need an identified site to establish a real project cost.

Real cost and site are needed to engage governments in decision to proceed.

Thus propose a stepwise process: a) Interim international ILC organization (FALC successor) to oversee

GDE during the R&D and technical design phase – no commitment yet to project, but international agreement to pursue the R&D.

b) Develop the procedure for proposing and selecting site; aim for site selection (or 2) by 2008 if possible (to keep TDR pace).

c) Prepare final design & cost estimate based on proposed site, commit to ILC project with international agreement in ~2010 – 11.

Construction start in 2012. (Consistent with technical schedule and cost profile above.)

U.S. Department of Energy

Toward ILC organization and site

Office of Science

The ITER agreement is a good template for ILC organization. It has the advantage of being agreed to by many of the potential ILC partners (EU,

US, Russia, Japan, India, Korea, China).

ITER provisions for the legal basis of the organization, personnel policy, financial sharing arrangements (not the details), intellectual property can be taken over with little change.

Different national shares for construction and operations.

Propose a Council to oversee ILC, with equal number of regional representative nations. (Not all nations – Labs or Consortia would not be on Council at any time). It may be necessary to establish regional councils to satisfy regional differences for selecting Council representation, adjusting intraregional contributions …

A procedure for site proposals and selections should be put in place by

FALC by 2007. Final technical design depends on knowing site.

U.S. Department of Energy

Issues for US bid to host

Office of Science

Visa access for foreign nationals – those working directly for the ILC organization, those seconded by their government, experimental users, family members – must be rationalized. The visa issue is a strong concern of our potential partners in choosing a US site.

Work permits for spouses/partners of foreign nationals. Getting the best people often requires opportunity for spouses to work.

Relationship between ILC Laboratory and host lab (FNAL) needs to be regularized so as not to damage the fabric of either entity. There should not be large salary disparities. Arrangements for sharing infrastructure – shops, guest services, procurement departments – must be spelled out.

The norm is for international organization employees to pay no tax in the host country. Requires negotiation.

Waiver of customs on in-kind contributions.

U.S. Department of Energy

Summary – International

Organization

Office of Science

The ILC progress requires some effort now by potential international partners (through FALC):

 Establish an interim organization to manage GDE though the R&D and TDR phase.

 Establish predicted levels of R&D funding

 Establish procedure for site proposals and selection process.

Dedicated US effort should be focussed on the US bid to host activities. LCSGA is undertaking a task force to prepare integrated national proposal.

U.S. Department of Energy

Next steps for organization

Office of Science

By mid-2007, establish an intgerim oversight organization for GDE by funding agencies. Presumably this is done by an interagency

MoU.

By early 2007, establish the timeline and procedure for site selection that aims at fixing two sites by early 2008 and a final site

(subject to later project approval) by late 2008.

U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Science

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