Verona High School
AP Statistics
2012 Summer Assignment
Bob Cashill
rcashill@veronaschools.org...908-403-7370
http://www.veronaschools.org/cashill
VHS AP Statistics Summer Assignment—2011-12
The Urban Dictionary defines AP Statistics as:
A division of math that requires much writing and analytical
thought. Taken by AP nerds, those hell bent on going to the 'best'
colleges, or by those with a masochistic streak. Can be taken in
place of Calculus, or, for those who really enjoy self-punishment,
concurrently. Mostly taken by seniors.
"I'm taking AP Statistics this year because I don't feel like taking AP
Calc, but my year wouldn't be hellish enough without it."
Welcome to AP Statistics! This course will be unlike any other math
class you have ever taken! Before taking this course, however, you will
need to be competent in basic algebra, be familiar with basic statistical
measures, and you must be willing to explain your answers, not just
simply get the correct answer.
Although this is a math course, AP Statistics concentrates much more heavily on thinking, reasoning,
writing, and communicating than it does on number-crunching. Graphing calculators and computer
software programs do most of the tedious “busy work” for us.
This course is focused on four interrelated areas of concentration;
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Exploring Data. What patterns in a set of data do you see? What do these tell us about the data?
What can we learn from them?
Sampling and Experimenting. What plan would you implement to conduct a study? Can you
effectively write a proposal for simulating a real-world situation?
Anticipating Patterns. What can you surmise about random phenomena by using probability?
How can you extrapolate your model into the future? What might you hope to have happen?
Statistical Inference. How can you apply given parameters to your test hypothesis to see if it is
valid?
In this class you will learn to describe and analyze sets of data and use that analysis to draw
conclusions about the situations that generated the data.
This summer assignment is meant to introduce you to the wide world of statistics, to have you "hit the
ground running" (sorry for the cliché) and allow us to move at a "fast and furious" pace throughout the
year.
Since you will obviously have many other things to do this summer, pace yourself! 60-90 minutes per
week, on average, or 8-10 hours on the night before school starts, should enable you to do all of the
required work.
A. Buy a Good Calculator
It is strongly recommended that you buy a TI-Nspire™ CX CAS Handheld or one of the other Ti-Nspires
as we will be using that almost exclusively. We will have a class set but the calculator is a great
investment.
B. Moodle
If you have not already done so, please register on Moodle and sign up for
our course--AP Statistics. We will use Moodle regularly throughout the
year to post resources and to interact with the class. Attachment A
shows you the steps to register and enroll. Please do this no later than
6/30 and check out the course site regularly during the summer.
The AP Statistics Moodle site is broken into sections that correspond to
the sections in each chapter. Feel free to watch some of the videos/open
some of the resources over the summer.
C. “How to Lie with Statistics”
Read the short book “How to Lie with Statistics” by Darrell Huff.
Although this book was written in 1954, its wisdom is needed now
more than ever, as increasing computer power and our headlineobsessed media look set to drown us all in a sea of "statisticulation".
This is the word coined by Darrell Huff to describe misinformation by
the use of statistical material.
"How to Lie with Statistics" is entertainingly illustrated with original cartoons and written in a clear and
easy style. It is short--128 pages and that includes illustrations--so you can easily read it at a single
sitting or two.
You can purchase a copy online, download an eBook (about $6.00) or borrow a copy from the library.
Your assignment is to read the book and concisely answer questions about each chapter in
Attachment B.
D. The Joy of Stats
The Joy of Stats is a 59 minute long documentary which
takes viewers on a rollercoaster ride through the
wonderful world of statistics to explore the remarkable
power they have to change our understanding of the
world. It is presented by superstar boffin (British slang for
a particularly clever person) Professor Hans Rosling,
whose eye-opening, mind-expanding and funny online
lectures have made him an international internet legend.
Rosling's presentations are grounded in solid statistics illustrated by the visualization software he
developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves
that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling
takes this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
The video must be watched on Moodle.
If you think that this will be boring, take a look at this 4 minute video--"200 Years, 200 Countries" by
Professor Rosling that tracks per capita income over time. This is also posted on Moodle.
E. Real World Statistics Portfolio
The beauty of statistics is that it is all around us. We see examples of good
and bad stats every single day in newspapers and magazines, on newscasts
and sporting events and on a host of web sites--especially those dealing with
politics, the economy and the government.
To really see how statistics impacts our lives, a major part of your summer
assignment is to develop a Real World Statistics Portfolio. Begin to collect
newspaper, magazine, video or internet articles/stories/advertisements that
include statistical concepts--both good and bad. These may include things
like graphs, charts or averages. They may also report conclusions made as a result of looking at data.
For each article/web page/etc., highlight the statistics mentioned and answer the following questions:
a.
b.
c.
What was the purpose of the article/statistic/data? Why was it written/produced?
Were any conclusions stated? If so, what were they?
Is the article/statistics/data convincing? Do you believe the stated results? Explain.
There is no minimum number of entries you must have but you should have at least 10 articles by
September. I will post links on Moodle to some great web sites that you use to do your research.
F. Stat Trek--Teach Yourself Statistics
This web site (http://stattrek.com/) provides training and tools to help you solve
statistics problems quickly, easily, and accurately--without having to ask anyone for
help.
It is strongly recommended that you work through the "Exploring Data" section of
AP Statistics tutorial. This covers the basics, charts and graphs, regression and
categorical data--much of which should be familiar to you already. These topics
will be the first ones we study in September and the more you know now, the faster
we can progress.
If you want to see what you're up against next May, take the practice exam on the site before you start
the tutorial. (http://stattrek.com/AP-Statistics-4/AP-Statistics-Practice-Exam-1.aspx?Tutorial=ap)
G. Freakonomics
Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of
Everything is a best-selling 2005 book by University of Chicago economist
Steven Levitt and New York Times journalist Stephen J. Dubner. The book is
not a statistics book, per se, but the authors make interesting uses of data--and
data analysis-- to explore a host of fascinating topics.
The book is a collection of 'economic' articles written by Levitt, an expert who
has already gained a reputation for applying economic theory to diverse
subjects not usually covered by "traditional" economists. In Freakonomics,
Levitt and Dubner argue that economics is, at root, the study of incentives.
Freakonomics now has its own web site (http://www.freakonomics.com/), blog, radio show and
podcasts.
Your mission--should you choose to accept it--is to become familiar with any and all of Freakonomics.
Read the book, listen to the podcasts or radio broadcast, or read the blogs. You do not need to
document anything--only absorb the information. Do as much or as little as you want.
H. Beach Reading
If you have the time and want to delve a little further into the world of statistics, try
reading one or more of the following books. Not required at all.
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Stat-Spotting: A Field Guide to Identifying Dubious Data by Joel Best
The Numbers Game--The Commonsense Guide to Understanding
Numbers in the News, in Politics, and in Life by Michael Blastland and
Andrew Dilnot
Polling Matters by Frank Newport
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter L. Bernstein
Chances Are; Adventures in Probability by Michael Kaplan
Tainted Truth by Cynthia Crossen, Simon & Schuster, 1994
The Culture of Fear: Why Americans are Afraid of the Wrong Things by Barry Glassner.
The Drunkard’s Walk, How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow
Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely,
Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists,
J. Best, University of California Press, 2001.
More Damned Lies and Statistics: How Numbers Confuse Public Issues, J. Best, University of
California Press, 2004.
The Lady Tasting Tea, D. Salsburg, Owl Books, 2001.
A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper, J. A. Paulos, Basic Books, 1995.
200% of Nothing, A. K. Dewdney, John Wiley and Sons, 1993.
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, N. Taleb,
Thomson, 2004
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, N. Taleb, Thomson, 2007
Bringing Down the House: How Six Students Took Vegas for Millons, B. Mezrich, Free Press,
2002
Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, M. Lewis, Norton, 2003
Tainted Truth: The Manipulation of Fact In America, C. Crossen
The Ghost Map: The Story of London's Most Terrifying Epidemic—and How It Changed
Science, Cities, and the Modern World, S. Johnson
The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, M. Gladwell, Little, Brown &
Co., 2002
Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You, G. Gigerenzer, Simon and
Schuster, 2002
News & Numbers: A Guide to Reporting Statistical Claims and Controversies in Health and
Other Fields, V. Cohn
Aging With Grace: What the Nun Study Teaches Us About Leading Longer, Healthier, and
More Meaningful Lives, D. Snowden, Bantom Press, 2002
Randomness, D. Bennett, Harvard University Press, 1998
Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes, Mark J. Penn, 2007
Attachment A: How to Set Up Your Moodle Account
1.
Browse to http://moodle.veronaschools.org.
2.
Login using your login and password you would use on a computer at school.
3.
Fill in your email address--use one that you actually read!
4.
Fill in City with: Verona, NJ.
5.
Select Country as: United States.
6.
Scroll to the bottom and click on the "Update Profile" button.
7.
You'll get a message saying you've been sent an email from Moodle.
8.
Read your email and look for an email with the subject "Confirmation of email update at Verona
Public Schools", then click on the link in the email.
9.
Log out of Moodle.
10.
Log back into Moodle....you should see your courses.
Attachment B: "How to Lie with Statistics"
Part 1: Q & A
Chapter 1. “The Sample with the Built-in Bias”
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What is a sample?
Give an example of bias from the book.
What is a random sample?
What is a stratified random sample?
Give an example of a stratified random sample from the book.
Chapter 2. “The Well-Chosen Average”
1.
Define the following terms:
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Skewed
Mean
Median
Mode
Chapter 3. “The Little Figures That Are Not There”
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Why should you be suspicious of a small sample?
Average alone is misleading. Why?
What is a better description than average (or center)?
Why is it important to label all graphs?
Chapter 4. “Much Ado about Practically Nothing”
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3.
What is probable error?
What does probability error have to do with Linda’s and Peter’s IQs?
Explain how the advertisement for Old Gold described on page 59 is dishonest.
Chapter 5. “The Gee-Whiz Graph”
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2.
What is a misleading graph?
Why is it important to label the axis of every graph you make in Statistics?
Chapter 6. “The One-Dimensional Picture”
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Why are picture graphs used?
How can they be deceptive?
Chapter 7. “The Semiattached Figure”
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2.
What is a semiattached figure? Give an example from the book.
Why should you watch for semiattached figures?
3.
How do before-and-after pictures use semiattached figures?
Chapter 8. "Post Hoc Rides Again"
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Can you say that "A" causes "B" just because “B” follows “A”?
Name another reason why “B” follows “A” if “A” does not cause “B”.
Why should you not take a correlation beyond the data? (see p 91)
Chapter 9. "How to Statisticulate"
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How can maps be used to deceive?
If a number has lots of places after the decimal, is it more accurate? Explain
If your pay is decreased by 50% and then increased by 50% is it back to what it was to begin
with? Explain.
How are Percentiles a way to Statisticulate?
Chapter 10. "How to Talk Back to a Statistic"
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4.
What are the 5 questions you should ask when looking at a statistic?
What was the problem with the "Journal of Commerce" survey?
Give an example of how the subject can be changed.
What did Mark Twain say about the nonsense side of extrapolation in Life on the Mississippi?
Part 2: Misleading Statistics
After you have finished reading the book scan through the pages and pick out your two favorite
examples of ways that people have been or can be misled by statistics. Summarize the circumstances
around each occurrence in your own words, and state what should have been done better or in a
different way.
At least one of the two must be a graphical example (show/redraw the picture/scan). Make it neat and
explain carefully what is wrong! Do not directly quote the book. Put everything in your own words.