1AC
Inherency
No changes coming the SQ—the IWTF is broke and congress and the president are at
an impasse
CRS 12
Inland Waterways: Recent Proposals and Issues for Congress Charles V. Stern Analyst in Natural
Resources Policy April 12, 2012, Congressional Research Report
Inland waterways are a significant part of the nation’s transportation system. Because of the national
economic benefits of maritime transport, the federal government has invested in navigation
infrastructure for two centuries. As a result, barge shipping has received significant support through federal funding for
operational costs, capital expenditures, and major rehabilitation on inland waterways. Since the Water Resources Development
Act of 1986, expenditures for construction and major rehabilitation projects on inland waterways
have been cost-shared on a 50/50 basis between the federal government and users through the
Inland Waterways Trust Fund (IWTF). Operations and maintenance costs for inland waterways
typically exceed these construction costs, and are a 100% federal responsibility pursuant to WRDA
1986. Future financing for the inland waterway system is uncertain. The IWTF is currently supported
by a $0.20 per gallon tax on barge fuel, but its balance has declined significantly due to a combination
of increased appropriations, cost overruns, and decreased revenues in previous years. Without
changes to the financing system, IWTF spending is likely to be extremely limited. Previously the Bush and
Obama administrations have recommended replacing the fuel tax with one or more user fees that
would increase revenues beyond their current baseline. However, Congress and industry interests
have rejected these proposals. In 2010, the Inland Waterways Users Board (IWUB), a federal advisory
committee advising the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on inland waterways, endorsed an alternative
proposal that is supported by many barge industry interests. The proposal would increase the fuel tax
by $0.06-$0.08 per gallon, but would also require that the federal government handle the full cost for
some projects that are currently costshared. The Obama Administration generally opposes this approach, and has previously
submitted multiple proposals to increase trust fund revenues with new user fees, in addition to the fuel tax. Most recently, the Administration
submitted, in its plan to the Joint Committee on Deficit Reduction, a proposal for new waterway user fees in 2011, and included new revenues
from an unspecified new inland waterways fee in its FY2013 budget request. To date, none of these changes have been enacted.
Plan:
PLAN: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase capital
investment in inland waterway infrastructure in the United States.
Advantage: Soybeans
Catastrophe is coming now – conditions are deteriorating along inland waterways
without increasing investment.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/12078/ 1217742-113.stm]
While Pittsburgh has some of the oldest locks and dams in the nation, conditions
along the rest of the nation's 11,000-mile
inland waterway system are not much better. One high-ranking Corps official speaking at an industry meeting last
month in Washington, D.C., described the situation as "a crisis headed for a catastrophe."
89% of soybeans travel through inland waterways—lock closure would cause spikes in
price
USB 12
Crumbling Inland Waterway System Puts Farmers, Consumers at Risk, Jan 24, 2012 Soybean checkoff study finds that United States could lose
global competitiveness, http://www.unitedsoybean.org/media-center/releases/crumbling-inland-waterway-system-puts-farmers-consumersat-risk/
Just on the Ohio River alone, the
accumulated shipping delays at broken-down locks has more than tripled
since 2000, rising from 25,000 hours to 80,000 annually. And that gets expensive. This study shows
that a three-month lock closure would increase the cost of transporting 5.5 million tons of oilseeds
and grain, the average shipped by barge during that period, by $71.6 million. A failure at any of the
locks examined by the study could cost U.S. farmers up to $45 million in lost revenue. The U.S. inland
waterways represent key infrastructure for transporting U.S. soybeans. Up to 89 percent of soybeans
exported through the lower Mississippi ports, such as the Port of New Orleans, arrive at those ports
in barges that must transit multiple locks for the trip downstream .The study, conducted by the Texas
Transportation Institute at Texas A&M University, examined the condition of locks on the Upper Mississippi River, Illinois River and Ohio River.
The study also calculated the economic impact of specific lock failures on districts within states, showing the effect on agricultural commodity
prices—and on fertilizer and coal prices, which also depend on upstream river barge shipping. “It
is important that we have a
robust transportation system,” adds Foell. “Only by using a combination of the lock and dam system, rail
system and truck system can we continue to move our products in a manner that will help us feed the
world.” The USB GO program and STC, which is made up of USB, the American Soybean Association and 11 state soybean checkoff boards,
plan to examine new and different ways to fund lock and dam and other rural transportation infrastructure improvements. USB made public
and private investment in transportation infrastructure one of its top two priority issues. USB is made up of 69 farmer-directors who oversee
the investments of the soybean checkoff on behalf of all U.S. soybean farmers. Checkoff funds are invested in the areas of animal utilization,
human utilization, industrial utilization, industry relations, market access and supply. As stipulated in the Soybean Promotion, Research and
Consumer Information Act, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service has oversight responsibilities for USB and the soybean checkoff.
Scenario 1: China
The harsh summer has put Soybean supplies and prices on the brink
Des Moines Register, June 29, 2012
Supply fears send soybean prices soaring Sales in May were the second-largest on record, spiking
worries about tight stocks. Jun 29, 2012 ,
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120630/BUSINESS01/306300031/0/news/?odyssey=nav%
7Chead
“Soybeans are going to be the story of the summer,” said Sal Gilbertie, president of Teucrium, a
publicly traded grain investment fund. “Everybody has worried about corn, with the dry and hot
weather. But soybean stocks are extremely tight right now.” The U.S. Department of Agriculture said
Friday that despite an 8 percent gain in soybean stocks in storage, the soybean disappearance, or
sales, of 707 million bushels for May was the second-largest disappearance on record. Analysts have
worried about soybean stocks with the 5 percent jump in corn acres planted this year, compared with
just a 1 percent increase in soybean acres to 76.1 million acres nationally. Iowa’s 8.8 million acres is
the lowest in the state since 2001. “Clearly, world demand remains strong, particularly from China,”
said Dean Coleman of Humboldt, president of the Iowa Soybean Association. “We would not be
surprised to see exports increased further, which will draw down the stocks more than the USDA is
estimating. With the short South American crop and weather concerns for the U.S., this fall will be
tight.”
US soybeans are key-to Chinese food security
Bloomberg, 12
Alan Bjerga and Whitney McFerron - Feb 17, 2012, U.S. Exporters Make Record Single-Day Soybean Sale to China
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2012-02-17/china-soybean-import-tops-one-day-record-as-ties-with-u-s-growers-expand.html,
Soybean exporters in the U.S., the world’s top shipper, sold 2.923 million metric tons to China in the
biggest one-day deal on record. Prices in Chicago rose to the highest in almost five months. The sale includes 2.75 million tons for delivery in
the year that begins Sept. 1 and 173,000 tons prior to Aug. 31, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a statement. China
is the
largest oilseed importer and the biggest buyer of U.S. agricultural products. U.S. and Chinese officials
yesterday signed a five-year accord to cooperate on agricultural production and trade and food
security. This week, China signed agreements in Iowa to purchase 8.62 million tons of soybeans as Chinese
Vice President Xi Jinping visited the state. The Asian nation purchased $22.17 billion of U.S. farm products last year, helping to boost total
exports to a record. “No doubt those were whopper sales,” Don Roose, the president of U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa, said
in a telephone interview. “With the Chinese in town, there’s something to that.” Cargill, ADM Sales Companies including Cargill
Inc. and
Archer Daniels Midland Co. signed contracts on Feb. 15 to export $4.3 billion of soybeans to China. U.S.
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, who met with Xi and Chinese farm minister Han Changfu in Iowa during their visit this week, said the sales
highlight a strong relationship he expects will expand. “I have a good relationship with the Chinese agriculture minister, and I think these
discussions will bring progress later” on boosting sales of soybeans and other products, including some U.S. beef
cuts currently banned in the country, Vilsack said. Soybean futures for May delivery rose 0.7 percent to close at $12.7375 a bushel at 1:15 p.m.
on the Chicago Board of Trade. Earlier, the price reached $12.795, the highest for the most- active contract since Sept. 23. “Agriculture
has become one of the highlights in U.S.- Chinese relations,” Han said yesterday at a symposium in Des Moines.
“Agriculture has had a huge benefit on both countries.” The U.S. is the largest exporter of agricultural
products. China, the most-populous country, bought $10.5 billion of the U.S. soybean crop last year,
29 percent of total production, according to USDA data. Global soybean consumption has soared in the past decade, fueled by
economic growth in China, India and Brazil that boosted incomes and demand for vegetable oil used in fried and baked foods, candy and
breads. People also are eating more meat, increasing the need for the oilseed to make livestock feed.
Soybeans are the only internal link to Chinese food insecurity
Dr. Wong and Dr. Huang , March 12
John Wong, Yanjie Huang, China's Food Security and Its Global Implications China: An International Journal, Volume 10, Number 1, March 2012,
pp. 113-124 (Article), is Professorial Fellow at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore and Yanjie Huang (eaihuan@nus.edu.sg)
is Research Assistant at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore.
China’s soybean market can be singled out as the only case where imports have substituted for
domestic production. The country consumed 60 million tons of soybeans in 2009, only a quarter of
which were produced domestically. This begs the question whether soaring soybean imports will pose
a threat to China’s grain security. Apparently, an over-reliance on imported soybeans does “violate” the principle of self-sufficiency
and pose some challenges to food security.
Collapse of food security would destabilize China
American Interest 4/29
April 29, 2012, Uh Oh: World Food Prices Spike As Soy Harvest Collapses, http://blogs.the-americaninterest.com/wrm/2012/04/29/uh-oh-world-food-prices-spike-as-soy-harvest-collapses/
Among the things we watch here at Via Meadia are trends in world food prices. Middle class Americans grumble when prices go up at the
supermarket ($5 bucks for a box of cornflakes? Are these people insane?) but for billions of people all over the world rising
food prices can mean the difference between happy kids and hungry ones, between having a little money for extras at the end
of the week and skipping meals. The news on that front is suddenly not good: as the FT reports, the soybean
harvest in Latin America has been badly hit by La Niña caused droughts. That doesn’t just mean a sharp increase in
edamame prices at the local sushi spot and a sharp spike in tofu down at Whole Foods. For much of the world, soybeans are a
primary source of protein and because they are used to feed animals, soybean price increases affect
many other foods. Soybean is also an important source of cooking oil in baked goods (like bread),
and this year’s spike in soy prices is made worse by rising prices for other edible oils.The US Department of
Agriculture believes that soybean production is headed for its biggest global drop ever — or at least since 1965 which is when the US started
Prices are now higher than they have been in four years, and could reach
record levels later in the year. This is particularly bad news in China, where food inflation already
worries a government facing social unrest and economic instability. Soybeans generally, and Latin American
soybeans in particular, play a major role in the Chinese diet. But it also suggests trouble across the Middle
East and southern Europe, where economic unrest has shaken governments from Portugal to
Pakistan. A lot of people are going to be hurting, and some of them will be hungry. 2012 could be even
more… interesting than we thought.
tracking global soybean production.
Chinese instability will trigger world war iii.
THE STRAITS TIMES, June 28, 2003, p. online
But imagine a China disintegrating- on its own, without neo-conservative or Central Intelligence Agency prompting, much less outright military
invasion because the economy (against all predictions) suddenly collapses. That would knock Asia into chaos. A massive
flood of refugees would head for Indonesia and other places with poor border controls, which don’t’
want them and cant handle them; some in Japan might lick their lips at the prospect of of World War II
revisited and look to annex a slice of China. That would send Singapore and Malaysia- once occupied by
Japan- into nervous breakdowns. Meanwhile, India might make a grab for Tibet, and Pakistan for
Kashmir. Then you can say hello to World War III, Asia style. That’s why wise policy encourages
Chinese stability, security and economic growth – the very direction the White House now seems to
prefer.
China is critical to world food security-lack of Chinese food security would lead to
worldwide hunger and starvation
Anthea Webb, Director of the World Food Program in China, China Daily, “WHY CHINA IS CRUCIAL TO
WORLD FOOD SECURITY” May 15, 2008, Lexis
For us, it is very hard to predict now how bad the impact of the calamity will be and what kinds of impact it will have on China,
especially at a time when the world is sliding into a food crisis. Whatever happened, China still played a very important
role in the world's food security. Last week Premier Wen Jiabao said that "China is deeply concerned about food
security", and announced that the government would give $2 million to the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) in
response to the extraordinary difficulties it is facing as a result of rising food prices. This brings
China's donation to WFP in 2008 to $4.5 million: the largest donation ever made by China to WFP for use in
other developing countries. The premier also said that by ensuring China can provide sufficient food for its
population of 1.3 billion people, the country is making a major contribution to world food security. At
a moment when world food security is facing unprecedented challenges from rising prices, China's role
is fundamental. Over the past year the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)'s food price index has risen by 57 percent. On the
international market, the price of staple foods like wheat and rice has more than doubled. Shoppers from Beijing to Boston to Brussels
have seen their grocery bill rise rapidly. For the wealthier consumers, who spend 10 to 20 percent of their income on food, that means
cutting back on the number of times they eat at restaurants, or on desserts and other treats. But for people who were just able to make
ends meet last year, the increases in prices of basic foods such as bread and rice are disastrous. The people who spend more
than half of their income putting food on the family table are now faced with the prospect of cutting
back on more nutritious foods like meat and dairy. The very poorest - those who survive on 50 cents a day have started to reduce the number of meager meals they eat each day. The WFP's executive director has called
the effect a "silent tsunami". Like the tsunami that swept across the Indian Ocean in December 2004, this wave of high prices knows no
borders. It is bringing a surge of suffering to poor people across the globe and its effects such as
increased malnutrition and poverty will be felt for years to come. What has caused this dramatic change in food
prices? Firstly, demand for food has changed. Once upon a time, grains like wheat, corn and rice, were used mainly as food for people.
Today, however, these simple foods are also used to produce feed for animals and ethanol for biofuels. Secondly, high crude oil prices
have impacted the cost of producing food. Unfortunately, few farmers are reaping the benefit of high food prices since the cost of
fertilizers, fuel for their machinery and transport to market have also risen, meaning their profit margins have decreased. Thirdly, the
weather also plays a big part in agriculture and recent years have seen serious droughts in major grain-exporting nations such as
Australia. Cyclone Nargis, which devastated much of the Irrawaddy Delta in Myanmar, is also likely to contribute to higher rice prices,
since it has destroyed much of this year's crop. On top of the suffering currently facing the people affected directly by the Cyclone, the
people of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, who had planned to buy some of that rice, will find it even harder to meet their needs this year.
This uncanny convergence of factors - new demands for grains, rising production costs and reduced supply because of bad weather have created an economic "perfect storm". Where does China fit into this picture? Already, by producing food
for more than 20 percent of the world's population on less than 10 percent of its arable land, China is
carrying a heavy burden for global food security. It is the world's largest producer of grain, and
production has increased every year for the past four years, reaching 501.5 million tons last year. More
than 95 percent of the grain it needs is grown in China. The State Grain Administration estimates its
grain reserves hold between 150 and 200 million tons - enough to meet up to six months' consumption
and well above the 18 percent of consumption recommended by FAO. But China is not immune to food price pressure.
Food, which accounts for 30 percent of the basket of goods on which inflation is calculated, has been
blamed for the high levels of inflation recorded in the past year. Those increases have been attributed
to rises in three main commodities: pork because a disease killed many of the herd last year; fruit and vegetables because the snow
and ice storms in southern China in January and February destroyed many horticultural crops; and cooking oil because it relies
heavily on soybean imports, the international price of which has grown steadily over recent years. The
government has demonstrated its concern over the issue of domestic food prices by introducing 10
measures to boost production and contain prices. These include incentives for farmers, restrictions on
exports and limits on the use of food for biofuel production. Many commodity analysts - including the World Food
Program - are counting on those measures to be successful. Notwithstanding the impressive increases in grain production in China over
the past 30 years, the country's farmers face a tough challenge to keep increasing the amount of grain they grow at the same pace as
demand is rising. The amount of land and water available for agriculture is decreasing, so much will depend on them being able to get
better yields. And the best incentive is for farming to be profitable. Personally, I am optimistic that China's farmers can rise to
this challenge, with the right kind of support from the government . I have seen how hard-working farmers
in rural Anhui province toil to grow wheat, rice, rapeseed and vegetables not just for their families but for other
provinces too. I have also seen that many of them still rely on buffaloes to till their fields and on rainfall to water their crops. Better
machinery and irrigation could help this productive province grow even more. China has already made so much progress, reducing the
number of undernourished people by more than 150 million over the past 30 years. Then, one in three Chinese children was
malnourished; today just 7 percent of children are too short for their age, a sign of poor nutrition. In fact, the average 6-year-old boy in
China today is 6 kg heavier and 6 cm taller than he would have been 30 years ago. That's concrete evidence of better diets and health.
China, perhaps better than any other developing country, has seen first hand how economic development depends
on food security. It knows that growing economies need healthy, well-nourished and well-educated
workers. Now the world is counting on its farmers being able to continue increasing the amount of
grain they can grow, to meet growing requirements at home and to stabilize prices. WFP is hoping that it can
learn from China's tremendous progress, and export some of the lessons - as well as financial and other support - to developing countries
which are still struggling with poverty and hunger.
Scenario 2: Brazil
Brazilian soy crop down in SQ
Reuters June 5th (UPDATE 2-Brazil gov't cuts soy estimate, raises corn view,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/05/grains-brazil-idUSL1E8H529F20120605, P. online)
Brazil's government trimmed its 2011/12 soybean crop estimate on Tuesday after drought ravaged
output in the world's second biggest producer this season, but raised its forecast of corn output to a
record. U.S. soybean futures rose after Brazil's food supply agency Conab cut its production forecast
and U.S. crop ratings disappointed. Brazil's soy crop that finished harvest in May is now estimated at
66.37 million tonnes, after drought erased about 10 million tonnes from crop's potential, Conab data
showed. The latest output number is down slightly from last month's estimate of 66.68 million tonnes.
Carry-over stocks of soybeans are set to drop to 1 million tonnes, Conab estimates, their lowest since
2008/09 and down about 65 percent from last year. No major revisions to the soy crop are expected in
the coming months. Brazil harvested a record 75.3 million tonnes the year before
***Decreased Soy from the US would also increase Brazilian soy
STRI in 8
Smithsonian Tropial Research Institute - Thursday, 10 January 2008, http://enviro.org.au/enews-description.asp?id=852,
The drop-off
in US soy has helped to drive a major increase in global soy prices, which have nearly doubled in the
last 14 months. In Brazil, the world's second-largest soy producer, high soy prices are having a serious
impact on the Amazon rainforest and tropical savannas. "Amazon fires and forest destruction have
spiked over the last several months, especially in the main soy-producing states in Brazil," said
Laurance. "Just about everyone there attributes this to rising soy and beef prices."
Soybean farming is devastating the rainforests in Brazil and displacing indigenous
peoples—This threatens planetary survival
Barry in 3
Glen, PhD, Forest and Rainforest Conservation Blog, http://forests.org/blog/archives/000357.htm
Eat soybeans produced in Brazil? Then you are in all likelihood contributing to rainforest loss, climate
change and displacement of indigenous peoples. It is that simple. While soybeans could be produced
on non-forested lands, the reality is that often rainforests are being cleared for their production. Cheap,
undervalued forest lands continue to fuel the Amazon's soybean boom, making soybeans the second
leading driver of Amazon destruction after cattle ranching. Left unchecked, soybean cultivation and
accompanying road construction will eventually deforest most of the Brazilian rainforest, wreaking
havoc upon the local, regional and global environments. Until such time as Brazilian soybean
production can be certified as having not resulted in rainforest loss, they must be boycotted.
Planetary survival depends upon it.
Soybean farming threatens the Brazilian rainforests biodiversity
Casson in 3
Anne, August, World Wildlife Fund, Oil Palm, Soybeans and Critical Habitat loss: A report prepared for
the WWF Forest Conversion Initiative,
http://www.wwf.ch/images/progneut/upload/oilpalmsoybeanscriticalhabitatloss25August03.pdf
In Brazil, soybean plantations have also rapidly expanded into critical habitats such as the Cerrado
ecoregion. According to the FAO (2003), soybean area has increased eight-fold in Brazil, jumping from
1.3 million ha in 1970 to 16.3 million ha in 2002 (FAO 2003). Although, statistics from the Brazilian
government state that Brazil’s soybean area has already reached 18.4 million ha (IBGE & CONAB 2003).
Until the 1980’s, soybean plantations were primarily concentrated in the South-Southeast region of
Brazil (Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul & Santa Catarina), however expansion has rapidly increased in the
Centre-West states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and Goiás since the 1980s. To a lesser extent,
expansion has also been occurring in the North-Northeast Amazonian region where the dominant
vegetation is tropical rain forest (Figure 9). As of 2002, 83% of Brazil’s soybean plantations were
established in the five states of Mato Grosso (25%), Rio Grande do Sul (19%), Paraná (19%), Goiás (12%)
and Matto Grosso do Sul (8%). Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná are located in the South-Southeast region,
while Mato Grosso, Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul are located in the Centre-West region. In the last 5
years, soybean plantations have also increasingly been planted in the Northern Amazonian states of
Rondônia, Para and Roraima. Area planted in these three states has increased from 3,000 ha in 1996/7
to 56,000 ha in 2002/3. (IBGE & CONAB 2003). The relationship between soybean expansion and
tropical forest loss is not known in the SouthSoutheast region, however it is thought to be significant.
This is because virtually all of the land in the state of Paraná was originally tropical forest, with a high
prevalence of Araucaria trees (Kaimowitz & Smith 2001). Currently, there is widespread concern about
the expansion of soybeans into the CentreWest states of Mato Grosso, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul and
Tocantins, where soybean expansion has rapidly increased more than eight-fold from 598,000 ha in
1975 to 5.2 million ha in 2000 (Figure 10). This dramatic expansion was largely accomplished through
the wholesale clearing and conversion of virgin savanna land within a critical habitat known as the
Cerrado ecoregion (Schnepf et al. 2001). The Cerrado ecoregion dominates 1.5 to 2 million km2 in
Brazil’s Centre-West states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias and Tocantins and in parts of
Bahia, Maranháo, Minas Gerais and Piaui. The Cerrado ecoregion is the most extensive
woodland/savanna region in South America (CI 2002). Within this region there is a mosaic of different
vegetation types, including tree and scrub savanna, grassland with scattered trees, and occasional
patches of a dry, closed canopy forest called the Cerradão. Gallery forests can also be found along
rivers and streams. The region is of enormous ecological and biological significance as it contains
around 10,000 plant species, many of which (4,400) are endemic to central Brazil. The Cerrado is also
home to a number of ‘focal species’ such as the maned wolf, the giant armadillo and the giant
anteater (ELC 2002). Unfortunately, the Cerrado is one of the leastprotected ecosystems in Brazil as only
1.5% lies within federal reserves. It is estimated that only 35% of the Cerrado remains in a relatively
natural state (Kaimowitz & Smith 2001).
Loss of biodiversity Leads to Extinction.
Dinner in ‘94
David Dinner, Ph. D in Planetary Science and Geology. “The Army and the Endangered Speciies Act:
Who’s Endangering Who?. Military Law Review 143. 1994
To accept that the snail darter, harelip sucker, or Dismal Swamp southeastern shrew 74 could save
[hu]mankind may be difficult for some. Many, if not most, species are useless to[hu]man[s] in a direct
utilitarian sense. Nonetheless, they may be critical in an indirect role, because their extirpations could
affect a directly useful species negatively. In a closely interconnected ecosystem, the loss of a species
affects other species dependent on it. 75 Moreover, as the number of species decline, the effect of
each new extinction on the remaining species increases dramatically. 4. Biological Diversity. -- The
main premise of species preservation is that diversity is better than simplicity. 77 As the current mass
extinction has progressed, the world's biological diversity generally has decreased. This trend occurs
within ecosystems by reducing the number of species, and within species by reducing the number of
individuals. Both trends carry serious future implications. 78 [*173] Biologically diverse ecosystems are
characterized by a large number of specialist species, filling narrow ecological niches. These ecosystems
inherently are more stable than less diverse systems. "The more complex the ecosystem, the more
successfully it can resist a stress. . . . [l]ike a net, in which each knot is connected to others by several
strands, such a fabric can resist collapse better than a simple, unbranched circle of threads -- which if cut
anywhere breaks down as a whole." 79 By causing widespread extinctions, humans have artificially
simplified many ecosystems. As biologic simplicity increases, so does the risk of ecosystem failure. The
spreading Sahara Desert in Africa, and the dustbowl conditions of the 1930s in the United States are
relatively mild examples of what might be expected if this trend continues. Theoretically, each new
animal or plant extinction, with all its dimly perceived and intertwined affects, could cause total
ecosystem collapse and human extinction. Each new extinction increases the risk of disaster. Like a
mechanic removing, one by one, the rivets from an aircraft's wings, 80 [hu]mankind may be edging
closer to the abyss.
Advantage: Military mobility
Heg sustainable – doomsayers are wrong.
Carla Norrlof, 2010, an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto,
“America’s Global Advantage US Hegemony and International Cooperation”
The United States has been the most powerful country in the world for more than sixty years.
Throughout this period, it has had the world’s largest economy and the world’s most important currency. For most of this time, it had
the world’s most powerful military as well – and its military supremacy today is beyond question. We are truly in an
era of US hegemony, a unipolar moment, a Pax Americana, which has enabled Americans to enjoy the highest standard of
living in human history. Is this privileged position being undercut by serial trade deficits? The pessimists are
growing more numerous by the day. They see the country’s spendthrift ways as a disaster waiting to
happen. They warn that the cavernous gap in merchandise trade, well above 6 percent in 2006, is an ominous sign
of competitive slippage. In 2008, the liabilities acquired to finance the shortfall in exports reached an amazing 29 percent of GDP. A
falling dollar, military overstretch, the rise of the euro, the rise of China, and progressively deeper
integration in East Asia are among the factors that many believe herald the imminent decline of
American hegemony. In my view, the doomsayers are mistaken. I argue that American hegemony is stable
and sustainable . While the United States certainly does face a number of challenges, an analysis of
the linkages between trade, money, and security shows that American power is robust. This book is a story
about why and how American hegemony works, and what other states would have to do to emulate or, on other grounds, thwart, America’s
power base. As I will show, the United States benefits from running persistent trade deficits as a result of its special position in the international
system. I will argue that any comparably situated country would choose to pursue the same cyclical deficit policy as the one encouraged by the
US government. A
series of size advantages cut across trade, money, and security: the size of the
American market, the role of the dollar, and American military power interact to make a trade deficit
policy rewarding and buffer the United States from the extreme consequences that a sustained
deficit policy would otherwise have.
Threatens US hegemony
Martin, 2009 Cornel Martin, President and CEO, Waterways Council, "Inland Waterways Investment Is Critical
to Economic Recovery - and it's Green” 2009
waterwayscouncil.org/Media%2520Center/articles/Page_%2520from_Cornel_OPED_Marex.pdf
The New Year brings much uncertainty about the economy, the future of certain industries and businesses, the housing
market, and a new administration’s plans. But one thing that is certain is the value of our inland waterways
transportation system for providing a less costly, fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly way to
move our nation’s “building block” commodities, both domestically and for export. Our inland waterways
system transports about 20 percent of our nation’s coal to generate electricity in utility plants and around 22 percent of our domestic petroleum
products. This system is the primary artery for more than half our grain and oilseed exports. All told, more than 625 million tons of freight
commodities valued at more than $70 billion move on America’s inland navigation system annually. And
with worldwide trade
expected to double over the next decade and with our highways and railways facing serious capacity
issues, our inland rivers may be even more critical tomorrow than they are today for transporting
products efficiently. There are other considerations as well. A new study by the National Waterways Foundation underscores the
“green” value of this transport mode. Inland waterways relieve congestion on our already over-crowded highways and railways. One jumbo
barge has the same capacity as 70 trucks or 16 rail cars. A typical 15-barge tow on our nation’s rivers is equal to 1,050 trucks – in other words,
just one barge movement equals 1,050 truck movements! To
sustain these many benefits and stimulate economic
recovery for our nation, investment in our inland navigation system of locks and dams is critical.
Many of our locks and dams are more than 50 years beyond their economic design life and are deteriorating
rapidly, impacting efficiency, safety, and our world competitiveness. We must modernize our lockand-dam system so that our farmers, coal miners, oil producers and stone/aggregate suppliers can transport their
products cost-effectively and efficiently, allowing them to remain competitive in world markets. It took
only two to three years to build some of the first modern locks and dams on our nation’s rivers in the 1920s and 1930s, but today it takes
increasingly longer periods of time to bring new locks online. We must find ways to improve the current waterways project delivery system and
ensure that navigation projects supported by expenditures in the Inland Waterway Trust Fund are built in a timely and cost-effective manner.
The need for improvement in the process is evident when comparing current projects with lock-and-dam modernization projects authorized a
little more
than 20 years ago under the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) of 1986. Construction for all seven of the
modernization projects proceeded at a pace that saw the new or modernized locks become
operational fairly quickly, anywhere from four to eight years, with the average for all seven projects equaling 6.3 years. Since then, the
WRDA ’86 lock-and-dam
estimated time to complete lock-and-dam modernization projects has ballooned well beyond reasonable time and costs; only one post-WRDA
’86 project thus far has seen its modernized lock become operational (Marmet, near Charleston, West Virginia). An example of this
disappointing project delivery system is the Lower Mon project on the Monongahela River near Pittsburgh, under construction for 13 years with
the Corps of Engineers’ current estimates for completion being another 13 years at best – around 2022 – with cost overruns pushing original
estimated costs from $550 million to new estimates exceeding $1.3 billion. This is a problem not only for commercial users of the system, who
need efficient and reliable ways to move the nation’s commodities, but also for every taxpaying citizen who cares about how government should
perform on its behalf. Our
nation must fix this problem and work harder to modernize our lock-and-dam
system if we want to remain world leaders. For example, China has announced plans to spend a half-trillion dollars over the
next three years to stimulate its economy. Last November Waterways Council, Inc. (WCI) submitted testimony to Congress urging the inclusion
of $1.5-$2.0 billion for the nation’s critical lock-and-dam infrastructure system under the second economic stimulus package focused on
infrastructure investment, job creation, and economic recovery. WCI specifically urged Congress to fund a total of 16 congressionallysupported, lock-and-dam modernization projects with approximately $1-$1.5 billion that could productively and quickly (perhaps within 90
days of enactment) expedite job-creating construction work associated with the projects. It also requested an additional $500 million to be
appropriated in the stimulus bill for productive, high-priority, employment-enhancing operation and maintenance (O&M) work on the inland
waterway system. At press time it was unclear when the full economic stimulus package would be presented or what priority would be given to
our nation’s inland waterways infrastructure, but we will continue to urge our leaders in Congress and the new Administration to recognize the
importance of our nation’s inland navigation system and address its critical needs.
America’s inland navigation system offers
our country an opportunity to compete in the world market, but if we don’t make necessary
investments now, our future as a world leader is in jeopardy.
Maintaining growth differential is key to prevent a great power transition and
maintain U.S. hegemony.
Ashley J. Tellis, Spring 2009, Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in
international security, defense and Asian strategic issues, Research Director of the Strategic Asia program at the
National Bureau of Asian Research, “Preserving Hegemony: The Strategic Tasks Facing the United States,” Global
Asia, Vol.4 No. 1,
Precisely because the
desire for dominance is likely to remain a permanent feature of US geopolitical
ambitions — even though how it is exercised will certainly change in comparison to the Bush years — the central task facing the next
administration will still pertain fundamentally to the issue of US power. This concern manifests itself through the triune challenges of:
redefining the United States’ role in the world, renewing the foundations of US strength, and recovering the legitimacy of US actions. In other
words, the next administration faces the central task of clarifying the character of US hegemony, reinvigorating the material foundations of its
power, and securing international support for its policies. The challenge of comprehensively strengthening US power at this juncture, when the
United States is still in the early phase of its unipolar role in global politics, arises importantly from the fact that the hegemony it has enjoyed
since 1991 represents a “prize” deriving from victory in intense geopolitical competition with another great power. The historical record
suggests that international politics can be unkind to such victors over the long term.
A careful scrutiny of the hegemonic cycles
since 1494 confirms quite clearly that power transitions at the core of the global system often occur because
successes in systemic struggles — of which the Cold War is but one example — can irreparably weaken otherwise
victorious hegemonies. The annals of the past actually corroborate the surprising proposition that no rising challenger, however
capable, has ever succeeded, at least thus far, in supplanting any prevailing hegemony through cold or hot war. Over the centuries, Spain,
France, Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union all tried in different ways but failed. This reassuring fact notwithstanding, hegemonic
transitions still occurred regularly in international politics, a reality that points to two critical insights about succession
struggles in the international system — which is a subject that ought to be of great significance to the United States and its allies as well as to its
adversaries. First, struggles
for hegemony in global politics are rarely limited to dyadic encounters
between states. These struggles involve not only the existing hegemon and the rising challenger as
the preeminent antagonists — roles that many expect will be played respectively by the United States and China over the long term
— but also the entire cast of international characters, including non-state actors involved in economic processes, and the
nature of their involvement in the competition become relevant to the succession process. Thus, the nature of the alliances orchestrated and
managed by the United States (and possibly China as well) in
the future, the relationship between state entities and
the global economic system and the relative burdens borne by every actor involved in this contest
become relevant to the outcome. Second, and equally importantly, who wins in the ensuing struggle — whether
that struggle is short or long, peaceful or violent — is as important as by how much. This is particularly relevant because the past
record unerringly confirms that the strongest surviving state in the winning coalition usually turns out to be the new primate after the conclusion
of every systemic struggle. Both Great Britain and the United States secured their respective ascendancies in this way. Great Britain rose
through the wreckage of the wars with Louis XIV and with Napoleon. The United States did so through the carnage of the hot wars with Hitler
and Hirohito, finally achieving true hegemony through the detritus of the Cold War with Stalin and his successors.
is to sustain this hard-earned hegemony
If the United States
over the long term, while countering as necessary a future Chinese challenge should
it emerge ,
Washington will need to amass the largest differential in power relative not only to its rivals
but also to its friends and allies. Particularly in an era of globalization, this objective cannot be achieved without
a conscious determination to follow sensible policies that sustain economic growth, minimize unproductive
expenditures, strengthen the national innovation system, maintain military capabilities second to none
and enjoin political behaviors that evoke the approbation of allies and neutral states alike. The
successful pursuit of such policies will enable the United States to cope more effectively with nearterm challenges as well, including the war on terrorism and managing threatening regional powers,
and will ineluctably require — to return full circle — engaging the central tasks identified earlier as facing the new US administration.
Key to mobility and growth differential
Donald E. Jackson Jr. & John F. Troxell, 3-30-2007, Colonel in the United States Army, economics instructor
at the U. S. Military Academy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, held assignments in the Department
of Army War Plans Division and as a force planner for the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and
Requirements, “Leveraging the Strategic Value of the U.S Inland Waterway System,” USAWC STRATEGY
RESEARCH PROJECT, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA469583
In order to maintain our competitive edge, we must assure the strategic mobility of our economic
and military elements of power. The inland waterway system can provide a key, strategic capability
that enables the current and future economic prosperity and national security of the U nited S tates. The federal
government, however, must efficiently manage, adequately fund, and effectively integrate inland waterways with other modes of transportation
at the national level for this to achieve success. Promotion
of the inland waterway system, using an interagency
and intra-governmental approach, positions this capability to provide the additional capacity
necessary to meet current and future freight transportation requirements. Leveraging the strategic value of inland waterways is
integral to building an effective and reliable national transportation network for the 21 st Century
Inland waterways key to military mobility.
Donald E. Jackson Jr. & John F. Troxell, 3-30-2007, Colonel in the United States Army, economics instructor
at the U. S. Military Academy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, held assignments in the Department
of Army War Plans Division and as a force planner for the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and
Requirements, “Leveraging the Strategic Value of the U.S Inland Waterway System,” USAWC STRATEGY
RESEARCH PROJECT, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA469583
The inland waterway system is a potential resource upon which we can increase the flow of military
cargo. Continued application of technology to barge operations and integration of the inland
waterway system into the nation’s intermodal system makes this an area ripe for additional
development. 50 Waterways already move important national defense resources and other supplies in large quantities for the armed
forces. 51 As a mode of transportation, the inland waterway system is quiet, low profile, and off the public radar. 52 12 U.S. Inland
Waterways contribute to efficient management on a national level by offering an excellent
alternative form of transport for a variety of non-traditional commodities. The inland waterway
system is an efficient, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly way to move large volumes of bulk
commodities, not requiring a fast transit time, over long distances. Towboats and barges do not compete with trucks and
commuters in urban areas. Barging operations continue to improve, allowing more cargo to be moved with
less effort. USACE promotes inland waterways as the most efficient mode of freight transportation. Towboats push barges lashed together
to form a “tow”. A tow may consist of four or six barges on smaller waterways up to over 40 barges on the Mississippi River below its
confluence with the Ohio River. A 15-barge tow is the most common barge configuration. Such tows are an extremely efficient mode of
transportation, moving about 22,500 tons of cargo as a single unit. The cargo capacity of a typical barge is equivalent to
that of 15 large railroad cars, or 58 semi-trucks. A representative 15-barge tow on a main stem waterway moves the same cargo as 870 trucks
stretching 35 miles on the interstate highway system. That
same 15-barge tow would require two 100-car unit trains,
extending nearly three miles in length. 53 The inland waterway system is a cost-effective mode of
transportation, saving shippers and consumers more than $7.8 billion annually compared to
alternate transportation modes. 54 Barges transport materials at relatively low cost per ton. The inland and
intracoastal waterway system handles about 300 billion ton-miles of cargo annually, or about 18% of all
intercity freight ton-miles. 55 This cargo principally includes raw materials and liquid and bulk primary products, like coal, petroleum,
chemicals, grain, processed metals, cement, sand, and gravel. 56 It is
the primary artery for more than half of the
nation’s grain and oilseed exports, over 20% of the coal consumed to produce the electricity we
depend upon to run our homes, offices, and industries, and about 22% of domestic petroleum movements. 57 On
average, a gallon of fuel allows one ton of cargo to be shipped 70 miles by truck, 420 miles by rail, and 530 miles by barge. 58
The U.S. is staving off global challengers through strong waterway infrastructure,
although inability to maintain this will cause a loss in status.
Donald E. Jackson Jr. & John F. Troxell, 3-30-2007, Colonel in the United States Army, economics
instructor at the U. S. Military Academy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, held
assignments in the Department of Army War Plans Division and as a force planner for the Assistant
Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Requirements, “Leveraging the Strategic Value of the U.S Inland
Waterway System,” USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT, http://www.dtic.mil/cgibin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA469583
The importance of a viable national transportation system to the security and economic prosperity of
the U nited S tates is even more important today than it was at the time of the Lewis and Clark Expedition. Accessibility to
world markets, providing quality goods at competitive pricing, and adaptability to an ever-changing
environment characterizes the explosive growth of the U.S. economy over the past century . The 21st
Century, however, provides interesting challenges for which we may be ill prepared. The era of globalization provides unique
opportunities for other nations and international coalitions, such as the European Union (EU), to
prosper and compete in international markets, challenging the preeminent standing of the U.S.
economy. Economists predict the U.S. economy will double, if not triple, between now and the year 2020. 2 Globalization
reinforces the need for highly efficient connections where the U.S. and international transportation
networks meet. 3 Feeding these connections, domestically, are a myriad of road, rail, and waterway networks ensuring American export
commodities can reach their international destinations. No single domestic transportation industry, whether trucking, rail, or waterway, can
provide universal coverage for all commodities. Integrating industry capabilities is essential to ensuring cargo is delivered to port in the most
efficient and cost-effect manner. Each industry plays an important role in the movement of freight, whether hauling large quantities of bulk
commodities or perishables over great distances, carrying smaller packages to the main streets and back roads of America, or flying high-value
merchandise to and from our trading partners abroad. 4 The collaborative efforts of U.S. transportation industries, and the infrastructure upon
transportation infrastructure is essential
to our national security, providing power projection platforms access to sea and aerial ports of
embarkation capable of rapidly moving American military forces, equipment, and material anywhere
in the world. Capable and reliable transportation infrastructure is a vital national interest of the
U nited S tates. Domestic transportation infrastructure must be efficiently managed, adequately funded, and effectively integrated at the
national level to serve as productive commercial conduits that support future economic growth. The U nited S tates has become one
of the wealthiest nations in the world, in part, by leveraging its reliable and effective transportation
infrastructure; only through further advancements in this imperative system will it maintain this
status. 5 Transportation infrastructure requires a strategic-level approach to management, funding,
and integration. National policy makers must balance the strengths and limitations of each
transportation industry sector, ensuring their collective capabilities support projected U.S. economic
and national security requirements. Based upon the capabilities inherent in each of these industries, supporting infrastructure
which they operate, provide the lifelines of American economic prosperity. Viable
must be available, expanded, or modernized that enable them to meet current and future transportation requirements. American transportation
infrastructure requires continual investment to remain a viable means of moving freight, as well as routine maintenance, periodic modernization,
and expansion to maintain adequate operability. The federal government has a Constitutional responsibility to provide adequate transportation
infrastructure that supports the nation’s economy, as a means of regulating interstate commerce. While federal responsibilities for transportation
infrastructure are collectively substantial, they are, however, widely disbursed and not well coordinated. 6 Congress is responsible for
synchronizing the efforts of industry stakeholders and government entities, making tough decisions on resource allocations that collectively
meet the strategic requirements of the transportation system. This effort requires both an interagency and intragovernmental approach.
US dominance is key to solve multiple hotspots that escalate to global war
Robert Kagan (Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Senior
Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund) 2007 “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Hoover
Institution, No. 144, August/September, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/article/6136
The jostling for status and influence among these ambitious nations and would-be nations is a second defining feature of the new postCold War international system. Nationalism in all its forms is back, if it ever went away, and so is international competition for power,
influence, honor, and status. American predominance prevents these rivalries from intensifying — its regional as well as its global
predominance. Were the United States to diminish its influence in the regions where it is currently the strongest power, the other nations
would settle disputes as great and lesser powers have done in the past: sometimes through diplomacy and accommodation but often
through confrontation and wars of varying scope, intensity, and destructiveness. One novel aspect of such a multipolar world is that most
of these powers would possess nuclear weapons. That could make wars between them less likely, or it could simply make them more
catastrophic.It is easy but also dangerous to underestimate the role the United States plays in providing a measure of stability in the
world even as it also disrupts stability. For instance, the United States is the dominant naval power everywhere, such that other nations
cannot compete with it even in their home waters. They either happily or grudgingly allow the United States Navy to be the guarantor of
international waterways and trade routes, of international access to markets and raw materials such as oil. Even when the United States
engages in a war, it is able to play its role as guardian of the waterways. In a more genuinely multipolar world, however, it would not.
Nations would compete for naval dominance at least in their own regions and possibly beyond. Conflict between nations would involve
struggles on the oceans as well as on land. Armed embargos, of the kind used in World War i and other major conflicts, would disrupt
trade flows in a way that is now impossible. Such order as exists in the world rests not merely on the goodwill of peoples but on a
foundation provided by American power. Even the European Union, that great geopolitical miracle, owes its founding to American power,
for without it the European nations after World War ii would never have felt secure enough to reintegrate Germany. Most Europeans recoil
at the thought, but even today Europe ’s stability depends on the guarantee, however distant and one hopes unnecessary, that the United
States could step in to check any dangerous development on the continent. In a genuinely multipolar world, that would not be possible
without renewing the danger of world war. People who believe greater equality among nations would be preferable to the present
American predominance often succumb to a basic logical fallacy. They believe the order the world enjoys today exists independently of
American power. They imagine that in a world where American power was diminished, the aspects of international order that they like
would remain in place. But that ’s not the way it works. International order does not rest on ideas and institutions. It is shaped by
configurations of power. The international order we know today reflects the distribution of power in the world since World War ii, and
especially since the end of the Cold War. A different configuration of power, a multipolar world in which the poles were Russia, China, the
United States, India, and Europe, would produce its own kind of order, with different rules and norms reflecting the interests of the
powerful states that would have a hand in shaping it. Would that international order be an improvement? Perhaps for Beijing and
Moscow it would. But it is doubtful that it would suit the tastes of enlightenment liberals in the United States and Europe. The current
order, of course, is not only far from perfect but also offers no guarantee against major conflict among the world ’s great powers. Even
under the umbrella of unipolarity, regional conflicts involving the large powers may erupt. War could erupt between China and Taiwan
and draw in both the United States and Japan. War could erupt between Russia and Georgia, forcing the United States and its European
allies to decide whether to intervene or suffer the consequences of a Russian victory. Conflict between India and Pakistan remains
possible, as does conflict between Iran and Israel or other Middle Eastern states. These, too, could draw in other great powers, including
the United States. Such conflicts may be unavoidable no matter what policies the United States pursues. But they are more likely to erupt
if the United States weakens or withdraws from its positions of regional dominance. This is especially true in East Asia, where most
nations agree that a reliable American power has a stabilizing and pacific effect on the region. That is certainly the view of most of China
’s neighbors. But even China, which seeks gradually to supplant the United States as the dominant power in the region, faces the dilemma
that an American withdrawal could unleash an ambitious, independent, nationalist Japan. In Europe, too, the departure of the United
States from the scene — even if it remained the world’s most powerful nation — could be destabilizing. It could tempt Russia to an even
more overbearing and potentially forceful approach to unruly nations on its periphery. Although some realist theorists seem to imagine
that the disappearance of the Soviet Union put an end to the possibility of confrontation between Russia and the West, and therefore to
the need for a permanent American role in Europe, history suggests that conflicts in Europe involving Russia are possible even without
Soviet communism. If the United States withdrew from Europe — if it adopted what some call a strategy of “offshore balancing” — this
could in time increase the likelihood of conflict involving Russia and its near neighbors, which could in turn draw the United States back in
under unfavorable circumstances. It is also optimistic to imagine that a retrenchment of the American position in the Middle East and the
assumption of a more passive, “offshore” role would lead to greater stability there. The vital interest the United States has in access to oil
and the role it plays in keeping access open to other nations in Europe and Asia make it unlikely that American leaders could or would
stand back and hope for the best while the powers in the region battle it out. Nor would a more “even-handed” policy toward Israel, which
some see as the magic key to unlocking peace, stability, and comity in the Middle East, obviate the need to come to Israel ’s aid if its
security became threatened. That commitment, paired with the American commitment to protect strategic oil supplies for most of the
world, practically ensures a heavy American military presence in the region, both on the seas and on the ground. The subtraction of
American power from any region would not end conflict but would simply change the equation. In the Middle East, competition for
influence among powers both inside and outside the region has raged for at least two centuries. The rise of Islamic fundamentalism doesn
’t change this. It only adds a new and more threatening dimension to the competition, which neither a sudden end to the conflict between
Israel and the Palestinians nor an immediate American withdrawal from Iraq would change. The alternative to American predominance in
the region is not balance and peace. It is further competition. The region and the states within it remain relatively weak. A diminution of
American influence would not be followed by a diminution of other external influences. One could expect deeper involvement by both
China and Russia, if only to secure their interests. 18 And one could also expect the more powerful states of the region, particularly Iran,
to expand and fill the vacuum. It is doubtful that any American administration would voluntarily take actions that could shift the balance
of power in the Middle East further toward Russia, China, or Iran. The world hasn ’t changed that much. An American withdrawal from Iraq
will not return things to “normal” or to a new kind of stability in the region. It will produce a new instability, one likely to draw the United
States back in again.
Advantage__: Trade
Global trade growth is inevitable – it’s only a question if the U.S. is engaged
IWR 12 (US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, June 20, “U.S. Port and Inland
Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post-Panamax Vessels”, pg. 14-15)
Despite the recent worldwide recession, the expected general trend for international trade is one of
continued growth as the world’s population and standard of living grow. As international trade
expands, the number of post-Panamax vessels is expected to increase. The Nation’s ability to attract
these vessels and allow efficient use of their capacity is the key to realizing the transportation cost
savings these vessels represent. For example, the Corps investigation of the Port of Savannah indicates a $652 million dollar
investment where the benefits far exceed the cost. Growth is expected in overall trade and deployment of postPanamax vessels to U.S. ports is certain for multiple trade routes. The expansion of the Panama Canal,
currently underway, will accelerate the timing of the deployment of these vessels to more U.S. ports.
There is, however, uncertainty in the port specific details: at which ports they will call; when these vessels will
arrive in large numbers; how deep these vessels will draft arriving and departing; and the supporting infrastructure needed
(channel depth and width, number and sizes of cranes, size of available container storage area). Despite the lack of port specific
certainty, the Nation can move forward identifying individual projects using established risk informed
decision making methods. The Panama Canal expansion is scheduled to be completed in 2014 and will
double its existing capacity. The new locks will be able to pass vessels large enough to carry three
times the volume of cargo carried by vessels today. The availability of larger, more efficient vessels passing though the new
locks on the canal is expected to potentially have at least three major market effects. (1) Currently, there is significant freight shipped to the
eastern half of the United States over the intermodal land bridge formed by the rail connections to West Coast ports. The potential for reduced
cost of the water route through the canal may cause freight traffic to shift from West Coast to East Coast ports. (2) To
take full
advantage of the very largest vessels that will be able to fit through the expanded canal but may be
too large to call at most U.S. ports, a transshipment service in the Caribbean or a large U.S. port may
develop. The largest vessels would unload containers at the transshipment hub for reloading on
smaller feeder vessels for delivery to ports with less channel capacity. (3) On the export side the ability
to employ large bulk vessels is expected to significantly lower the delivery cost of U.S. agricultural
exports to Asia and other foreign markets. This could have a significant impact on both the total
quantity of U.S. agricultural exports and commodities moving down the Mississippi River for export at
New Orleans. There is uncertainty in the port specific details of when such vessels will arrive in large number, which ports they will call,
how deep vessels calling will draft and, consequently, how deep navigation channels must be. Over time these uncertainties will reduce as
experience replaces expectation. Even
in the face of this uncertainty, individual ports are actively engaged in
port expansions and studies to deepen and widen Federal access channels. We can predict that in the June 20,
2012U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS XV INSTITUTE FOR WATER RESOURCES absence of transshipment centers post-Panamax vessels will call
in large numbers, they will call at most major ports and their sailing drafts will become known. Our
challenge is to invest in
capacity expansion in the right places at the right time consistent with industry needs. Port capacity
depends upon channel depths, channel widths, turning basin size, sufficient bridge heights, and port
support structures such as dock and crane capacity to offload and onload goods. The deepest channel
requirements are likely to be driven by “weight trade” services. Vessels can be filled to their weight capacity or their volume capacity. Vessels
loaded to their weight capacity sail at their maximum design draft; they sit deeper in the water. For volume trade routes, channel width and
turning basin size may be of greater importance than additional channel depth at some ports, as vessels loaded to their volume capacity often
sail at significantly less than their design draft. The Asian export trade is considered a “cube trade” (i.e. volume trade). Careful consideration is
needed when determining channel depth requirements at U.S. ports for this trade route.
As trade increases, the U.S. need the waterways to accommodate
U.S. Army Corp of Engineers 6/20
Institute for water resources, “U.S. Port and Waterway Modernization: Preparing for post-Panamax vessels.” US Army Corp of Engineers.
Written June 20th, 2012. Accessed June 27, 2012.
http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/docs/portswaterways/rpt/June_20_U.S._Port_and_Inland_Waterways_Preparing_for_Post_Panamax_Vessels.
pdf
Congress directed the USACE Institute for Water Resources to submit to the Senate and House committees on appropriations a “report on
how the Congress should address the critical need for additional port and inland waterways modernization to accommodate postPanamax vessels.” This report fulfills that request. This report identifies capacity maintenance and expansion issues associated with the
deployment of post-Panamax vessels to trade routes serving U.S. ports. This identification has been accomplished through an evaluation
of the future demand for capacity in terms of freight forecasts and vessel size expectations and an evaluation of the current capacity of
the Nation’s inland waterways and coastal ports. Despite
the recent worldwide recession, the expected general
trend for international trade is one of continued growth as the world’s population and standard of
living grow. As international trade expands, the number of post-Panamax vessels is expected to
increase. The Nation’s ability to attract these vessels and allow efficient use of their capacity is the
key to realizing the transportation cost savings these vessels represent. For example, the Corps
investigation of the Port of Savannah indicates a $652 million dollar investment where the
benefits far exceed the cost. Growth is expected in overall trade and deployment of post-Panamax
vessels to U.S. ports is certain for multiple trade routes. The expansion of the Panama Canal ,
currently underway, will accelerate the timing of the deployment of these vessels to more U.S. ports. There is,
however, uncertainty in the port specific details: at which ports they will call; when these vessels will arrive in large numbers; how deep
these vessels will draft arriving and departing; and the supporting infrastructure needed (channel depth and width, number and sizes of
cranes, size of available container storage area). Despite the lack of port specific certainty, the Nation can move forward identifying
individual projects using established risk informed decision making methods. The Panama Canal expansion is scheduled to be completed
in 2014 and will double its existing capacity. The new locks will be able to pass vessels large enough to carry three times the volume of
cargo carried by vessels today. The
availability of larger, more efficient vessels passing though the new locks on the
canal is expected to potentially have at least three major market effects. (1) Currently, there is significant freight
shipped to the eastern half of the United States over the intermodal land bridge formed by the rail connections to West Coast ports. The
potential for reduced cost of the water route through the canal may cause freight traffic to shift
from West Coast to East Coast ports. (2) To take full advantage of the very largest vessels that will be able to fit through the
expanded canal but may be too large to call at most U.S. ports, a transshipment service in the Caribbean or a large U.S. port may develop.
The largest vessels would unload containers at the transshipment hub for reloading on smaller
feeder vessels for delivery to ports with less channel capacity. (3) On the export side the ability to
employ large bulk vessels is expected to significantly lower the delivery cost of U.S. agricultural
exports to Asia and other foreign markets. This could have a significant impact on both the total
quantity of U.S. agricultural exports and commodities moving down the Mississippi River for export at New Orleans.
There is uncertainty in the port specific details of when such vessels will arrive in large number, which ports they will call, how deep
vessels calling will draft and, consequently, how deep navigation channels must be. Over
time these uncertainties will
reduce as experience replaces expectation. Even in the face of this uncertainty, individual ports
are actively engaged in port expansions and studies to deepen and widen Federal access channels.
We can predict that in the absence of transshipment centers post-Panamax vessels will call in
large numbers, they will call at most major ports and their sailing drafts will become known. Our
challenge is to invest in capacity expansion in the right places at the right time consistent with
industry needs. Port capacity depends upon channel depths, channel widths, turning basin size,
sufficient bridge heights, and port support structures such as dock and crane capacity to offload
and onload goods. The deepest channel requirements are likely to be driven by “weight trade”
services. Vessels can be filled to their weight capacity or their volume capacity. Vessels loaded to their weight capacity sail at their
maximum design draft; they sit deeper in the water. For volume trade routes, channel width and turning basin size may be of greater
importance than additional channel depth at some ports, as vessels loaded to their volume capacity often sail at significantly less than
their design draft. The Asian export trade is considered a “cube trade” (i.e. volume trade). Careful consideration is needed when
determining channel depth requirements at U.S. ports for this trade route.
Inland waterways key to boosting exports.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
Industry officials say more reliable locks and dams could boost U.S. exports, a critical element of
President Barack Obama's economic recovery plan. They point to an expansion of the Panama Canal that will allow more and
bigger ships to pass through the canal, which links the Caribbean Sea with the Pacific Ocean. The Panama project could benefit
American coal and grain producers eyeing booming markets in Asia if they can efficiently ship
products down the Ohio and Mississippi rivers to New Orleans for export.
Trade prevents extinction.
Pazner 08 (Michael J., Faculty – New York Institute of Finance, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future
from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138)
The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring about ever more heated arguments and dangerous confrontations
over shared sources of oil, gas, and other key commodities as well as factors of production that must, out of necessity, be acquired from lessthan-friendly nations. Whether involving raw materials used in strategic industries or basic necessities such as food, water, and energy, efforts to
secure adequate supplies will take increasing precedence in a world where demand seems constantly out of kilter with supply. Disputes over the
misuse, overuse, and pollution of the environment and natural resources will become more commonplace. Around the world, such tensions
will give rise to full-scale military encounters, often with minimal provocation. In some instances, economic conditions will
serve as a convenient pretext for conflicts that stem from cultural and religious differences. Alternatively, nations may look to divert
attention away from domestic problems by channeling frustration and populist sentiment toward other countries and cultures.
Enabled by cheap technology and the waning threat of American retribution, terrorist groups will likely boost the frequency
and scale of their horrifying attacks, bringing the threat of random violence to a whole new level. Turbulent conditions will encourage
aggressive saber rattling and interdictions by rogue nations running amok. Age-old clashes will also take on a new, more heated sense of
urgency. China
will likely assume an increasingly belligerent posture toward Taiwan, while Iran may embark
on overt colonization of its neighbors in the Mideast. Israel, for its part, may look to draw a dwindling list of allies from around the
world into a growing number of conflicts. Some observers, like John Mearsheimer, a political scientists at the University of Chicago, have even
speculated that an “intense confrontation” between the United States and China is “inevitable” at some point. More than a few disputes will turn
out to be almost wholly ideological. Growing cultural and religious differences will be transformed from wars of words to battles soaked in
blood. Long-simmering resentments could also degenerate quickly, spurring the basest of human instincts and triggering genocidal acts.
Terrorists employing biological
or nuclear weapons will vie with conventional forces using jets, cruise missiles, and bunkerbusting bombs to cause widespread destruction. Many will interpret stepped-up conflicts between Muslims and Western societies
as the beginnings of a new world war.
Advantage__: Terrorism
Waterway infrastructure is obsolete in the status quo – signals an invitation for an
easy terrorist target.
Randy Van Dyne, 7-27-2007, Executive Director of the All Hazards Training Center at The University of
Findlay, “The Inland Waterway Invitation to Terrorism,” The Homeland Security Blog,
http://www.thehomelandsecurityblog.com/2010/07/27/the-inland-waterway-invitation-to-terrorism/
But here at The All Hazards Training Center at The University of Findlay, it is the maritime component of the bill that caught our attention.
Findlay is part of the Rural Domestic Preparedness Consortium, and we provide security training and planning for waterway officials in rural
areas. So we watch events in the maritime sector of domestic security. Many are surprised at the immense traffic of rural inland waterways. The
Port of Huntington-Tri-State, our largest inland port, handles nearly 80 million tons of cargo each year but is barely within 3 hours of any city of
a half-million people or more. And ports
and marine terminals are only the most obvious component of marine
commerce. River and seaway locks are also a vital part of the nation’s waterway system.
Infrastructurereportcard.org is a fascinating site created by civil engineers that provides their report card for categories of U.S.
infrastructure. The site recently graded inland waterways a frightening D minus, citing the fact that nearly half of all locks are
obsolete. Should a lock or a busy river or lake port, like Duluth, MN, or our nearby Port of Toledo, or the Soo Locks,
become a victim of a terrorist attack, U.S. transportation could be altered drastically. The
reverberation would not only cause major changes to the transportation of goods in the immediate
days following the attack, thanks to re-routing, but the reaction of maritime security nationwide could
greatly slow traffic at all ports and on all rivers. This week, New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg touted the current appropriations
bill as crucial to the security of the Port of Newark. Clearly, a huge maritime facility like Newark is a visible and complex
target with ongoing security concerns. But like many who address the needs of rural responders and security managers, our
Findlay All Hazards staff wonders when terrorism will come to an inland target. It’s our hope that the programs that arise
from this new appropriation bill will meet the needs of inland and rural ports and terminals, as well as those of the larger
ports of the U.S.
A new focus on transportation infrastructure is key to prevent a terrorist attack on
U.S. waterways – efforts are failing now.
Breanne Wagner, November 2007, staff writer, National Defense, “License to Boat?,” Vol. 92 Issue 648, p. 22,
Ebsco Host
***cites Dana Goward, director of Coast Guard maritime domain awareness***
Small boats
have been used by terrorists to carry out attacks around the world and they are likely to
be employed as weapons in U.S. water ways, the government has recently warned. Officials believe small vessels—
defined as those less than 300 gross tons—are a poten-tial threat because they are easy to obtain and there are
few defenses in place to stop them from being used as a platform to launch an attack, "We are very concerned about people
doing harm with small vessels because we have breaches every week," said Dana Goward, director of Coast Guard maritime
domain awareness. An estimated 14 uniden-tified boats reach U.S. shores each week. DHS and the Coast Guard have put the
spotlight on the possibility of such an attack, emphasizing the need to protect U.S. water-ways. But
despite efforts to create new security measures, officials are failing to gar-ner the support of small boat owners and
operators because of the lack of a clear, cohe-sive plan. During a speech in December 2006, Adm. Thad Allen, commandant of
the Coast Guard, singled out the threat of water borne improvised explosive devices on boats, saying that the issue needed extra attention.
Mine deployment and IED development for use against waterways is technically
feasible and easily purchased.
Scott C. Truver, Winter 2008, is Executive Advisor, National Security Programs, at Gryphon Technologies LC,
specializing in national and homeland security, and naval and maritime strategies, doctrines, programs and
operations, the interagency task force drafting the U.S. President’s National Strategy for Maritime Security, Ph.D. in
Marine Policy Studies from Naval Postgraduate School, and the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy, Naval War
College Review, Vol. 61 Issue 1, “MINES AND UNDERWATER IEDS IN U.S. PORTS AND WATERWAYS,” p.
108-9, Ebsco Host
Mines and UWIEDs are easy to acquire or build and are cheap, ranging from a few tens of dollars to
$25,000 for the most advanced, multiple-influence weapons. Even then, their low cost belies their potential for harm.
They can be deployed by submarines, surface warships, small craft, commercial vessels, dhows, fishing
vessels, pleasure boats, aircraft and helicopters. They are designed for operations from the surf zone (less than 10-foot water
depth) to deep water (greater than 200 feet). They can range from a few pounds to several tons of high explosive
and can have a variety of firing mechanisms: remote control and command; contact; and magnetic, acoustic, seismic,
pressure or combinations of some/all such “influence” signatures of ships. They can be buoyant and suspended in the
water column, close-tethered to the bottom, resting on the bottom or even buried under sediments to confound mine-hunting and –
sweeping. Some mines are mobile, capable of being launched from submarines thousands of yards from
intended minefields, while others have torpedo or rocket-propelled warheads that dramatically expand potential damage zones against
submarine and surface targets. Limpet mines are designed to be placed directly on targets by combat swimmers or, in the future, unmanned
undersea vehicles (UUVs). Old
mines can be refitted with modern, highly sophisticated components and all
mines with counter-countermeasure features to frustrate EOD and sweeping and hunting operations. They can be
fabricated from fiberglass and plastic, making them extremely difficult to detect, identify and counter...once in the water. And they are a broadspectrum, global threat. According to Navy data, more
than a quarter million naval mines of all types are in the
inventories of more than 50 navies, in addition to U.S. weapons. More than 30 countries produce and more
than 20 countries export these weapons. Even highly sophisticated weapons are available on the
“black market,” usually on a cash-and carry basis. And, these Navy data do not include UWIEDs, which can be
fabricated easily, as the Iraqi “bicycle” floating anti-small boat mine encountered during Operation Desert Shield proved.
Agricultural Competition
The U.S. economy is stalling. Lack of jobs and government inaction is killing consumer
spending and confidence. No sustainable growth now.
HOMAN & CHADRA 5 – 17 – 12 Bloomberg Economics Reporters
Timothy R. Homan and Shobhana Chandra, Confidence Sinks As U.S. Job Market Progress Stalls: Economy,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17/jobless-claims-in-u-s-were-unchanged-at-370-000-last-week.html
Consumer confidence fell last week to the lowest level in almost four months and more people than
forecast filed claims for unemployment benefits, showing a lack of progress in the job market is rattling
Americans. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index dropped in the week ended May 13 to minus 43.6, a level associated with recessions or their aftermaths,
from minus 40.4 in the previous period. Jobless applications were unchanged at 370,000 in the week ended May 12, Labor Department figures showed today in
Washington Diminishing
employment gains, falling stock prices and the prospect of government gridlock
continue to hurt household sentiment. The lack of
a sustained rebound in hiring damps the outlook for consumer spending, which accounts for about
70 percent of the world’s largest economy. “A mix of policy questions and some ongoing softness in
employment growth” is weighing on confidence, said Sam Coffin, an economist at UBS Securities LLC in
over the budget heading into the November presidential election may
Stamford, Connecticut. “We’re hearing more and more about fiscal negotiations. Last year that talk seemed to derail confidence, and that’s coming up as a topic
again.” Coffin
and the UBS team, led by Maury Harris, were the most accurate in forecasting the
unemployment rate for the two years through April, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Other reports today
showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly shrank this month and the index of leading indicators dropped in April for the
first time in seven months. Shares Drop The
disappointing data and growing concern over the European debt
crisis sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down for a fifth day. The gauge dropped 1.5 percent to 1,304.86 at the 4 p.m.
close in New York, the lowest closing level since January, amid reports that Moody’s Investors Services was about to downgrade shares of Spanish banks.
Elsewhere today, a report from the National Statistics Institute in Madrid showed Spain’s gross domestic product declined 0.3 percent in the first quarter from the
previous three months, when it fell the same amount, signaling the nation succumbed to its second recession since 2009. Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized
4.1 percent pace in the first quarter, faster than estimated, from the previous three months, data from the Cabinet Office showed. The rate was boosted by spending
The Bloomberg U.S. consumer comfort
index’s 12.2-point decline over the past four weeks has erased almost all of this year’s gains. The gauge
on projects to rebuild areas devastated by last year’s earthquake and tsunami. One-Month Drop
began the year at minus 44.8 and reached a four-year high of minus 31.4 in the week ended April 15. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment gauge
reached a similar four-year high with this month’s preliminary reading, led by gains among upper-income Americans, a report on May 11 showed. The group’s final
reading is due May 25. Readings lower than minus 40 for the Bloomberg index are correlated with “severe economic discontent,” according to Gary Langer,
president of Langer Research Associates LLC in New York, which compiles the index for Bloomberg. The gauge has averaged minus 15.3 since its inception in
December 1985. All three of the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index’s components declined last week, today’s
report showed. The gauge of personal finances fell to minus 12.9, the fourth straight drop and the weakest reading since November, from minus 11.2 in the prior
week. A measure of whether consumers consider it a good or bad time to buy decreased to minus 48.2, a three-month low, from minus 45.8. Americans’ views on
the state of the economy fell to a 10-week low of minus 69.6 from minus 64.2. Customers ‘Struggling’ “I
do not feel like the economy has
come back,” James Reid-Anderson, chairman and chief executive officer of Grand Prairie, Texas-based theme-park operator
Six Flags Entertainment Corp., said during a May 16 investor conference. “Every week there is a different story. One week we’re up. Next week we’re
down, but there isn’t that confidence yet that the economy is back. We’re assuming that our guests might be struggling financially.” Employers added
115,000 workers to payrolls last month, the weakest gain since October, according to Labor Department figures
released May 4. The same report showed the unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent as more Americans left the labor force. The trend in jobless
claims indicates little improvement in job-market conditions since then. The four-week moving average, a less volatile
measure than the weekly figures, fell to 375,000 last week from 379,750. Survey Week Last week included the 12th of the month, which coincides with the period
the Labor Department uses in its survey of employers to calculate monthly payroll growth. The employment report for May will be released on June 1. The four-
An increase in
applications for jobless benefits last month and a drop in consumer expectations about the economy
depressed the index of leading indicators. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months decreased 0.1
week average for this month’s survey week was little changed from the 375,500 during the corresponding period in April.
percent after a 0.3 percent gain in March, the New York-based group said today. “The economy is in a midst of a soft patch, but I don’t think it’s going to be
anything worse than that,” Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “Economic growth this
quarter will come right around where it came in last quarter.” Slower Growth The economy grew at a 2.2 percent annual pace in the first three months of 2012, down
from 3 percent the prior quarter. The
rate of growth from April to June will probably be the same as last quarter,
according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg from May 4 to May 9. A report from
the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today cast doubt on the outlook for manufacturing. The
central bank’s general economic index fell to minus 5.8 this month, the lowest reading since
September, from 8.5 in the previous month. Economists forecast the gauge would rise to 10, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
Readings less than zero signal contraction in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. The report was at odds with other regional
data. Manufacturing in the New York area expanded at a faster pace in May, a report this week from the New York Fed showed. “We’re
in a choppy
and uneven recovery,” said Sean Incremona, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, who had the
lowest estimate in the Bloomberg survey. “The recovery as a whole isn’t gathering any momentum.” Government
gridlock may hold back growth. Washington policy makers remain at a standoff over the debt ceiling after President Barack Obama met with House Speaker John
Boehner yesterday. Their impasse raises the prospect of an election-year showdown on the federal debt.
Lock or dam failure would be enormously expensive for ag producers
Mica, ’12 [John L., “Members of the Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment,” April 13, 2012,
http://Republicans.transportation.house.gov/Media/file/112th/Water/Water%20Briefing%20Memo%20%204-1812.pdf]
Had these failures occurred on a system like the Upper Mississipi River, where there are very few auxiliary locks, the impacts would have been
compounded. According to recent studies, a
failure at certain locks on the Upper Mississippi-Illinois Watrway could cost
agricultural producers up to $45 million and barge companies up to $162.9 million depending on the
lock and the length of the outage. A two-week failure at Lock and Dam 20 on the Upper Mississippi
would be estimated to cost $5.1 million to barge company revenues, while a one-year failure would
cost $150.1 million to barge company revenues. The grain industry would lose $2.8 million and $44
million respectively.
Every lock failure = millions wasted
Kruse et al. ‘11
http://www.unitedsoybean.org/wp-content/uploads/Americas_Locks_And_Dams.pdf, AMERICA’S
LOCKS & DAMS: “A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?” FINAL REPORT Prepared for UNITED
SOYBEAN BOARD by C. James Kruse, Director, Center for Ports & Waterways Annie Protopapas,
Associate Research Scientist Texas Transportation Institute The Texas A&M University System College
Station, Texas and Zafarbek Ahmedov, Graduate Research Assistant Bruce McCarl, Professor Ximing Wu,
Associate Professor James Mjelde, Professor Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M
University College Station, Texas December 2011
Four closure durations were modeled at five of the six focus locks (those with agricultural
movements): two weeks, one month, one quarter, and one year. 4 A failure at any one of the
focus locks would cost agricultural producers anywhere between $900,000 and $45 million,
and result in lost revenues to barge companies between $2.2 million and $162.9 million,
depending on duration.
Delays increasing now
Kruse et al. ‘11
http://www.unitedsoybean.org/wp-content/uploads/Americas_Locks_And_Dams.pdf, AMERICA’S
LOCKS & DAMS: “A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?” FINAL REPORT Prepared for UNITED
SOYBEAN BOARD by C. James Kruse, Director, Center for Ports & Waterways Annie Protopapas,
Associate Research Scientist Texas Transportation Institute The Texas A&M University System College
Station, Texas and Zafarbek Ahmedov, Graduate Research Assistant Bruce McCarl, Professor Ximing Wu,
Associate Professor James Mjelde, Professor Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M
University College Station, Texas December 2011
Currently, 54% of the Inland Marine Transportation System’s (IMTS) structures are more than 50
years old and 36% are more than 70 years old. The age and increase in hours of outage are a
concern. On the Ohio River, for example, navigation outages have increased more than 3-fold
since 2000, going from approximately 25,000 hours to 80,000 hours.3 There have been two
recent failures: Markland Lock in 2009 (5 months) and Greenup Lock in 2010 (1 month). Delays
and budget overruns have become so severe that they are causing other projects to lose
funding or be delayed by a number of years (e.g., the Olmsted Locks and Dam Project on the
Ohio River).
US inland waterways are key to international competitiveness by agriculture
exportation.
Ken Casavant, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Washington State University, Pullman, WA.1, , “Inland Waterborne Transportation –
An Industry Under Siege”, November 2000, Agricultural Transportation Challenges of the 21st Century
America's agricultural producers have always been dependent upon transportation. It is transportation that
links the fields of the producer to the tables of the domestic and foreign consumers. Waterborne transportation is one
component of the entire transportation system that provides service to a broad group of
commodities/products. Farm commodities and farm inputs are extensive users of waterborne transportation. In a reciprocal way, the
waterborne transportation industry depends upon agricultural and other resource movements for their economic livelihood. Grains are
particularly dependent upon waterway services, as they access international markets, markets that
take over 50 percent of the U.S. wheat production and an average of 22 percent of the coarse grain
output. Producers of corn, soybeans, and white and soft wheats are particularly dependent upon foreign consumers and barge transportation.
Because much of U.S. agricultural production is at interior locations far from domestic markets and
ports that link our economy to the world, transportation is critical to the competitiveness of the U.S.
economy. By investing in an extensive inland waterway system, the United States has been able to
improve its competitiveness in international markets. These investments have facilitated lower input
costs for U.S. agriculture, provided greater access to international agricultural markets, and
strengthened agricultural commodity prices
Agricultural competitiveness key to strong economy
NCbiofuels 12
(organization which has as its goal the awareness of biofuel and agricultural industries) "Agriculture - The Cornerstone Of Our Old (And New)
Economy." Agriculture - The Cornerstone Of Our Old (And New) Economy. NCbiofuels, 27 June 2012. Web. 28 June 2012.
<http://ncbiofuels.net/biofuels-nc-blog/643-agriculture-the-cornerstone-of-our-old-and-new-economy.html>.
America may not currently be as aware of the economic value of agriculture as we should be, but America is changing. Many of us are quickly
realizing it is not possible to sustain our planet or our economy with "throw away" products and artificially deflated costs. Both the credit and
housing crises and recession of the past few years have made all of us think about our resources differently. These events brought to light the
need for all of us to change, not just for our economy, but also for our planet. How
can we create jobs, increase strategic
security, reduce waste, and sustain our own communities with resources we currently have available
to us? A large part of the answer has been right in front of us all along: by creating new opportunity
through agriculture. Innovating new agricultural industries is key to creating sustainable national
wealth and security. The U.S Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack, wrote recently in the White House Blog about why creating an
advanced biofuels sector in the U.S. is crucial. He said, "I believe in renewable fuel production goals and I believe in the need for improved
energy security, a cleaner environment, better economic opportunity and job creation in rural America." Developing the biofuels industry will
create massive demand for agricultural products (specifically biomass for biofuel production) and that demand will create potentially thousands
of new rural jobs.
Global economic crisis causes war---strong statistical support—also causes great
power transitions
Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010,
“Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace:
Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. Political
science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of
interdependent states. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic and national levels. Several notable contributions follow.
First, on the systemic level, Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson’s (1996) work on leadership cycle theory, finding that
rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of pre-eminent power and the
often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. As such, exogenous shocks such as
economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin, 10981) that leads to
uncertainty about power balances, increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fearon, 1995). Alternatively, even a
relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a
rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner, 1999). Seperately, Polllins (1996) also shows that global
economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major, medium, and small powers, although
he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic
level, Copeland’s (1996,2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that ‘future expectation of trade’ is a significant variable in understanding
economic conditions and security behavior of states. He argues that interdependent
states are likely to gain pacific
benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. However, if the
expectation of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood for
conflict increases , as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. Crises
could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist
moves by interdependent states. Third, others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level.
Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict,
particularly during periods of economic downturn. They write, The linkages between internal and external conflict and
prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour. Moreover,
the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts
self-reinforce each other. (Blomberg & Hess, 2002, p.89). Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of
terrorism (Blomberg, Hess, & Weerapana, 2004), which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. Furthermore,
crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. ‘Diversionary
theory’ suggests that, when facing
unpopularity arising from economic decline, sitting governments have increased incentives to create
a ‘rally round the flag’ effect. Wang (1996), DeRouen (1995), and Blomberg, Hess and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence
showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. Gelpi (1997) Miller (1999) and Kisanganie and Pickering
(2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact that
democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000) has provided
evidence showing that periods
of weak economic performance in the United States, and thus weak presidential popularity, are
statistically linked to an increase in the use of force..
Solvency
New infrastructure investment is crucial - modern U.S. waterways are key to economic
competitiveness – most efficient method of commerce***
Cornell Martin, 2-21-2011, is president and CEO of the Waterways Council Inc., Journal of Commerce, Vol. 12
Issue 8, “WATERWAYS DESERVE FUNDS,” p. 35, Ebsco Host
THE RELEASE OF
the president's fiscal 2012 budget on Valentine's Day and its historically low funding level
for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Civil Works Program was anything but a message of love. That's not
unexpected in this fiscally conservative environment, but the slashed Civil Works budget is problematic not only for the corps, but for
the nation, overall, as well. Why? America's inland water-ways are a precious natural resource, and remain
the envy of the world because of the "water highway" our expansive waterways system pro-vides for
commerce. But too often, our rivers and waterways are out of sight, out of mind. Nonetheless, modern lock
and dam infrastructure is critical to our nation's competitiveness, to the effi-cient movement of the
intermodal supply chain, to environmental pro-tection, to energy efficiency, to the sustainment of well-paying Ameri-can
jobs and to traffic congestion relief. In real numbers, America's inland navigation system moves more than
600 million tons of freight commodi-ties valued at more than $70 billion each year. This includes about 20 per-cent of the coal burned
to generate electricity in utility plants, roughly 22 percent of domestic petroleum products, approximately 60 per-cent of U.S. grain for export,
helping our nation's farmers and growers to compete internationally at a fraction of the cost of the other
bulk modes. The beneficiaries of the water-ways system are many because rivers provide stable pools of water for
industrial, municipal and agri-cultural use, generate hydropower, provide flood protection, create rec-reational opportunities, and
Federal leadership key
Jackson ‘7
USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT LEVERAGING THE STRATEGIC VALUE OF THE U.S. INLAND
WATERWAY SYSTEM by Colonel Donald E. Jackson, Jr. United States Army
The inland waterway system of the United States stands as a minimally exploited system that,
if optimized, could help eliminate the congestion of overland transport, pollution, and provide a
low cost alternative to long haul passages.78 The USDOT should aggressively promote inland
waterways as an effective alternative to overland transportation. U.S. Inland Waterway
System stakeholders must embrace emerging technologies that more efficiently manage traffic
on inland waterways to mitigate lock-imposed delays. An intra-governmental approach to
managing national water resources must be better integrated at the local, state, and federal
level, eliminating political impediments to system efficiency. Integrated planning to effectively
link the national transportation network with state and local intermodal infrastructure must be
encouraged and managed strategically. The federal government must lead efforts to develop
adequate funding strategies, seeking public-private collaboration, to maintain the investment
streams that support new construction, operations, and maintenance of the inland waterway
system, making it a reliable and affordable means of transportation in the future. Inland
waterway infrastructure must be prioritized and resources focused on the most value added
gateways supporting objectives of the national freight transportation system. Overall the system
should be repaired and modernized and, in certain cases, enlarged to meet the industry
standard requirement for locks of 1200 feet. The federal government and the USDOT, using an
interagency approach, must continue to develop transportation strategies that encourage the
balanced growth of each industry sector, leading leads to more effective integration of inland
waterway transportation. The USTRANSCOM deployment and distribution model should be
commercially replicated at the national level to highlight alternative freight transportation
planning opportunities that leverage the capabilities of each transport mode. The USDOT must
provide shippers incentives for increased use of inland waterways, expanding container-onbarge
opportunities to alleviate congestion and increase capacity of the freight transportation system
at the national level.
States don’t have jurisdiction over plan
Stern 12 (Congressional Research Service, Anaylst in Natural Resources Policy, April 12, “Inland
waterways: recent proposals and issues for congress”, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41430.pdf, pg.
1)
Through the early 1800s, inland waterway development was left to the states, until the SupremeCourt
gave the United States authority over interstate commerce in 1824. 4 Shortly thereafter, the federal
government began to provide funding and support to these waterways to improve interstate and
international commerce. Improvements in other forms of transportation, including rail and highway, have decreased reliance on
inland waterways as a means of commercial freight transportation, but these waterways remain a significant component in the nation’s
transportation mix for many bulk commodities.
Funding k2 solve shutdowns and delays
Mitchell 6/13
http://blog.al.com/press-registerbusiness/2012/06/waterway_association_we_need_m.html, Waterway
Association: We need more money Published: Wednesday, June 13, 2012, By Ellen Mitchell, PressRegister
Funding for the operation and maintenance of waterways is not getting the support needed to
adequately improve the infrastructure, said panelists at the annual Warrior-Tombigbee
Waterway Association meeting in Mobile. Matt Woodruff, chairman of Waterways Council Inc.,
said that the challenges before the inland waterways are extensive. "We're in a situation today
where we're under a lot of funding pressure in terms of cost overruns and projects which are
extending their completion time and pushing back the start time for projects in line behind
them," he said. "We need more funding and a system for completing these projects in a timely
manner." Woodruff said the biggest incomplete project in the Gulf region is the replacement
of the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal Lock in New Orleans, the only route from the Mississippi
River to the east on the Gulf's Intracostal Waterway. "Any cargo heading east of the Mississippi
River has to go through that line," Woodruff said. "The lock was originally authorized for
replacement in 1956. It's still not finished and at the rate we're going, we won't finish it in our
lifetime." Should the lock fail, Woodruff said, ships would have to use a longer, more timeintensive route through other U.S. waterways to move cargo from the Mississippi River to
Mobile and further east.
FEDERAL government key- uniformity, responsibility, and experience.
Department of Transportation, 2011 April America’s Marine Highway Report to Congress,
http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/MARAD_AMH_Report_to_Congress.pdf
The correct valuation of such benefits in planning and investment decisions could justify a much greater role for America’s Marine Highway as
part of a balanced national transportation system. USDOT,
with its responsibility to develop and implement national freight and
passenger transportation strategies and target public resources to satisfy public needs across State and other jurisdictional
lines, is best positioned to see that this role is realized. The Federal government is also well-situated to
coordinate the development of national standards to ensure the compatibility of infrastructure and
equipment throughout the Marine Highway system. MARAD is currently working closely with other USDOT modal
administrations and the Office of the Secretary of Transportation to develop national transportation strategies that maximize the positive
contributions of Marine Highway services.
Inherency-No funding now
Funding is needed for maintenance – various solvency mechanisms possible
IWR 12 (US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, June 20, “U.S. Port and Inland
Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post-Panamax Vessels”, pg. 16-17)
Addressing “the critical need for additional port and inland waterway modernization to accommodate
post‐Panamax vessels” necessitates an examination of the current delivery mechanisms, the
identification of issues and the offering of options for the future. Among the issues identified, securing
funding sources to take advantage of modernization opportunities in a timely manner, given the
constrained fiscal environment, was judged the most critical. A notional list of financing options is
presented to initiate discussion of possible paths to meet this challenge—it is anticipated that a variety of options
may be desirable, and in all cases individual project characteristics, including its economic merits, would need to be considered in selecting the
optimal financing mechanisms. These options are illustrative only and do not necessarily represent any Administration, USACE or IWR position.
ements while
maintaining current cost share responsibilities.U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS XVII INSTITUTE FOR WATER RESOURCES o Increase Harbor
Maintenance Trust Fund (HMTF) user fees and allocate increased revenues to harbor improvements. o Maintain
or increase Federal
appropriations and also increase local cost share requirements. o Encourage individual port initiatives
by phasing out the HMTF, expecting individual ports to collect their own fees and make their own
investment and maintenance decisions.
To support waterway improvements, increase
the fuel tax and provide increases in Federal appropriations to track with the increased revenues
flowing into the IWTF; depending upon the revenues from the fuel tax, reduce the share of total costs
that is paid from general appropriations. o Replace the fuel tax with a vessel user fee and/or combine
the fuel tax with a vessel user fee and increase revenues and appropriations for improvements at
least by the amount of the increased revenues 2 . o Implement public‐private partnerships with the responsibility for
improving, operating and maintaining the inland waterway navigation infrastructure along specified segments of the system. Financing for
these actions would be secured in private capital markets with revenues to repay the financed activities earned from a combination of vessel
user fees (segment fees or lockage fees) and appropriations.
Funding insufficient now.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/12078/ 1217742-113.stm]
Steve Fritz, the Corps official managing the project, said if
Congress authorizes only minimum annual funding, work
will drag into the 2030s and cost upward of $1.7 billion. "The longer you go into the 2030s, the higher
that number will climb," Mr. Fritz said. By then, the Elizabeth lock and dam -- built to last 50 years -would be nearly 125 years old.
No changes coming the SQ—the IWTF is broke and congress and the president are at
an impasse
CRS 12
Inland Waterways: Recent Proposals and Issues for Congress Charles V. Stern Analyst in Natural
Resources Policy April 12, 2012, Congressional Research Report
Inland waterways are a significant part of the nation’s transportation system. Because of the national
economic benefits of maritime transport, the federal government has invested in navigation
infrastructure for two centuries. As a result, barge shipping has received significant support through federal funding for
operational costs, capital expenditures, and major rehabilitation on inland waterways. Since
the Water Resources Development
Act of 1986, expenditures for construction and major rehabilitation projects on inland waterways
have been cost-shared on a 50/50 basis between the federal government and users through the
Inland Waterways Trust Fund (IWTF). Operations and maintenance costs for inland waterways
typically exceed these construction costs, and are a 100% federal responsibility pursuant to WRDA
1986. Future financing for the inland waterway system is uncertain. The IWTF is currently supported
by a $0.20 per gallon tax on barge fuel, but its balance has declined significantly due to a combination
of increased appropriations, cost overruns, and decreased revenues in previous years. Without
changes to the financing system, IWTF spending is likely to be extremely limited. Previously the Bush and
Obama administrations have recommended replacing the fuel tax with one or more user fees that
would increase revenues beyond their current baseline. However, Congress and industry interests
have rejected these proposals. In 2010, the Inland Waterways Users Board (IWUB), a federal advisory
committee advising the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on inland waterways, endorsed an alternative
proposal that is supported by many barge industry interests. The proposal would increase the fuel tax
by $0.06-$0.08 per gallon, but would also require that the federal government handle the full cost for
some projects that are currently costshared. The Obama Administration generally opposes this approach, and has previously
submitted multiple proposals to increase trust fund revenues with new user fees, in addition to the fuel tax. Most recently, the Administration
submitted, in its plan to the Joint Committee on Deficit Reduction, a proposal for new waterway user fees in 2011, and included new revenues
from an unspecified new inland waterways fee in its FY2013 budget request. To date, none of these changes have been enacted.
Current funding is inadequate
Stern 12 (Congressional Research Service, Anaylst in Natural Resources Policy, April 12, “Inland
waterways: recent proposals and issues for congress”, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41430.pdf, pg.
1)
These waterways cover 38 states and handle approximately half of all inland waterway freight (or onetwelfth of all national freight). 3 The
Corps develops, operates, and maintains the infrastructure of these commercial waterways (e.g.,
navigation channels, harbors, locks and dams), and also maintains and regulates the channel depths through dredging and
water management. Costs for maintenance and construction on inland waterways are funded by the Corps
(through appropriations) and the commercial user industry (through user fees paid to the federal government). The Corps pays for
100% of the cost for studies and for operations and maintenance on the IWS, while the cost for new construction
or major rehabilitation (currently defined as any upgrade in excess of $8 million) is shared equally between the Corps and the commercial
industry. Congress is faced with competing proposals relating to future financing for inland waterway system investments, including who will
finance what investments, and at what level. The
current revenue source, a set tax on fuel agreed to in the mid1980s, is insufficient to cover the nonfederal costs of major capital expenditures on inland waterways .
This has in some years resulted in federal taxpayers covering more than half of these costs. The ongoing shortfall is currently
limiting the number of new and ongoing inland waterway construction projects, and is expected to
continue to do so unless changes to the financing system are enacted by Congress. Recent proposals highlight
a number of issues associated with inland waterways. On multiple prior occasions, the executive branch has proposed to phase out the fuel tax
in favor of a lock usage fee, but these efforts have been rejected by Congress. More recently, the user industry proposed and continues to favor
a combination of increases to the existing fuel tax and an increase in the federal share of inland waterway costs.
Funding is being cut for waterways
Stern 12 (Congressional Research Service, Anaylst in Natural Resources Policy, April 12, “Inland
waterways: recent proposals and issues for congress”, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41430.pdf, n
pg.)
Inland waterways are a significant part of the nation’s transportation system. Because of the national economic benefits of maritime transport,
the federal government has invested in navigation infrastructure for two centuries. As a result, barge shipping has received significant support
through federal funding for operational costs, capital expenditures, and major rehabilitation on inland waterways. Since the Water Resources
Development Act of 1986, expenditures for construction and major rehabilitation projects on inland waterways have been cost-shared on a
50/50 basis between the federal government and users through the Inland Waterways Trust Fund (IWTF). Operations and maintenance costs
for inland waterways typically exceed these construction costs, and are a 100% federal responsibility pursuant to WRDA 1986. Future
financing for the inland waterway system is uncertain. The IWTF is currently supported by a $0.20 per
gallon tax on barge fuel, but its balance has declined significantly due to a combination of increased
appropriations, cost overruns, and decreased revenues in previous years. Without changes to the
financing system, IWTF spending is likely to be extremely limited. Previously the Bush and Obama
administrations have recommended replacing the fuel tax with one or more user fees that would
increase revenues beyond their current baseline. However, Congress and industry interests have
rejected these proposals. In 2010, the Inland Waterways Users Board (IWUB), a federal advisory committee advising the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers on inland waterways, endorsed an alternative proposal that is supported by many barge industry interests. The proposal
would increase the fuel tax by $0.06-$0.08 per gallon, but would also require that the federal government handle the full cost for some projects
that are currently costshared. The Obama Administration generally opposes this approach, and has previously submitted multiple proposals to
increase trust fund revenues with new user fees, in addition to the fuel tax. Most recently, the Administration submitted, in its plan to the Joint
Committee on Deficit Reduction, a proposal for new waterway user fees in 2011, and included new revenues from an unspecified new inland
waterways fee in its FY2013 budget request. To date, none of these changes have been enacted.
Now is key time
Now is key – delays will only increase the difficulty and expense of repairs and
maintenance.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/12078/ 1217742-113.stm]
The longer the delays, the more difficult and expensive it becomes to maintain the aging locks and
dams. More than half of the nation's locks, which were designed to last 50 years, have been moving
along river traffic far longer. About 40 percent of the 89 locks in the Corps' Great Lakes and Ohio division, which includes
Pittsburgh, are more than 70 years old.
Cost increase inevtiable
Costs accumulate- degrading infrastructure has a real impact on U.S. economic output.
Davidson, 5/20 [Paul, “USA's creaking infrastructure holds back economy,” USA Today, May 20, 2012,
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-05-20/creaking-infrastructure/55096396/1]
"I call this a stealth attack on our economy," says Janet Kavinoky, executive director of transportation and infrastructure for the U.S.
Chamber of Commerce. "It's not like an immediate crisis. It's something that's sneaking up on us." Freight bottlenecks
and other congestion cost about $200 billion a year, or 1.6% of U.S. economic output, according to a report last year by
Building America's Future Educational Fund, a bipartisan coalition of elected officials. The chamber of commerce estimates such
costs are as high as $1 trillion annually, or 7% of the economy.
Delays inevitable
Aging locks make delays inevitable
Jackson ‘7
USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT LEVERAGING THE STRATEGIC VALUE OF THE U.S. INLAND
WATERWAY SYSTEM by Colonel Donald E. Jackson, Jr. United States Army
Effective integration of the U.S. Inland Waterway System is key to expanding the capacity of
the national freight transportation infrastructure. Through strategic examination of the entire
intermodal transportation system, and a detailed look at the many factors inhibiting the inland
waterways from being a preferred route for goods movement, we can determine the best
method of integrating the inland waterways system, leveraging them into the nation’s current
intermodal transportation system.69 Traditional methods of overland transport are not easily
usurped by inland waterways. The U.S. Inland Waterway System has historically served to
move large, bulk cargoes and suffers from recent bouts of unreliability. Decreasing reliability
of inland waterways is a factor of increasing age and recent budget constraints that combine
to result in increased downtime at commercial lock facilities, both scheduled and unscheduled.
USACE reports lock unavailability time has more than doubled since the early 1990s from
about 60,000 hours to over 120,000 hours annually. Shippers on inland waterways can
generally prepare for scheduled lock maintenance; however, unscheduled lock downtime can
seriously disrupt shipment schedules and contract commitments, leaving shippers scrambling
for delivery alternatives typically at a much higher cost.70 Unfortunately, this trend is alarming
to shippers and must be adequately addressed to leverage the capacity potential desperately
needed to support national freight transportation requirements.
Current system fails
Current cost-sharing system unfeasible
IWUB ‘10
http://www.waterwayscouncil.org/WCIExtras/IMTS_IWUB_Report.pdf, “Inland Marine Transportation
Systems (IMTS) Capital Projects Business Model”, Final Report Revision 1, April 13, 2010
With the current precedent requiring 50 percent of funding to come from the General
Treasury (federal) and the other 50 percent to come from the IWTF for construction of all
congressionally designated navigation projects and major rehabilitation projects on fuel-taxed
inland and intracoastal waterways, the $380 million annual program would require $190
million annually from each of the general fund and the IWTF. In turn, the increase in the fuel
tax to support such a cost-sharing alternative would be $0.30 per gallon for a total fuel tax of
$0.50 per gallon, an increase to a level that is 250 percent of the current level. The Team
acknowledges that this increase is unrealistic and would be extremely detrimental in a number
of respects, yet the entire IMTS is in jeopardy without this level of investment. The Team also
recognized that many other non-navigation entities and interests benefit from the IMTS, and
these beneficiaries should be taken into account in the new recommended cost-sharing model.
Topshelf Uniqueness--IWW are failing
Catastrophe is coming now –
Waterways are collapsing now
IWR 12 (US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, June 20, “U.S. Port and Inland
Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post-Panamax Vessels”, pg. 34)
Interestingly, the reliability of lock and dam structures is linked to both highway and rail performance in a demonstration of the interconnected
nature of the transportation system. Lock
outages at the Nation’s aging system of locks and dams have
experienced a sharp increase over the last 20 years. Much of this is related to outages either for
scheduled or unscheduled lock repairs. Carriers face lost opportunities and increased costs due to
these disruptions that delay service, while shippers face potential disruptions to their operations and
increased transportation costs as they seek ways to work around lock facilities either closed to traffic
or experiencing major congestion as traffic moves through smaller auxiliary chambers (when available).
During closure events, shippers will seek alternative overland routes, which can cause congestion on these routes (rail or truck).
Lock failure imminent now – 14 by 2020.
Davidson, 5/20 [Paul, “USA's creaking infrastructure holds back economy,” USA Today, May 20, 2012,
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-05-20/creaking-infrastructure/55096396/1]
The ancient lock-and-dam system is perhaps the most egregious example of aging or congested
transportation systems that are being outstripped by demand. Fourteen locks are expected to fail by
2020, costing the economy billions of dollars. Meanwhile, seaports can't accommodate larger container ships, slowing exports
and imports. Highways are too narrow. Bridges are overtaxed.
Dam or lock failure would shut down a waterway for years.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/12078/ 1217742-113.stm]
Corps and industry officials say it would take three or more years to replace a failed lock and even
longer if a dam had to be replaced.
SQ cant solve
There is no method for maintaining and repairing locks and dams now.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/12078/ 1217742-113.stm]
The precarious status of the waterway system stems from what government and industry officials agree
is a broken method of maintaining and replacing aging locks and dams.
Piecemeal funding can’t solve – doesn’t surmount the cost of construction delays.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/12078/ 1217742-113.stm]
Congress has authorized $8 billion in projects that would replace or rehabilitate aging river infrastructure. But it has not fully funded the
projects up front. The
piecemeal funding the projects receive generates significant cost overruns and
construction delays counted in decades, not months or years.
Absent improvements, delays and closures inevitable
IWUB ‘10
http://www.waterwayscouncil.org/WCIExtras/IMTS_IWUB_Report.pdf, “Inland Marine Transportation
Systems (IMTS) Capital Projects Business Model”, Final Report Revision 1, April 13, 2010
Given the issues with the current business model described in Chapter 1 and the need to
improve the process so that the IMTS remains reliable and resilient for the foreseeable future,
change to the model is essential. The economic service life of locks and dams is 50 years, but
currently 54 percent of the locks and dams in the IMTS are more than 50 years old and 36
percent are more than 70 years old. Without a comprehensive plan to ensure timely
replacement and rehabilitation of deteriorating system components, unscheduled closures
will become commonplace and a reliable system cannot be guaranteed to the waterways
industry and the shippers who use it. At the same time that system components are
deteriorating, the MARAD is predicting a dramatic growth in domestic freight volume. Since
other surface modes of transportation (rail and truck) face capacity constraints during normal
economic circumstances, many see the inland waterways, which do not suffer systemic capacity
constraints, as part of the solution to the nation’s future freight transportation needs. Yet,
increases in movement of the bulk commodities historically moved by water and new
intermodal cargoes shifted to water from other modes could, without a sound program to
maintain and, where appropriate, enhance our inland waterways infrastructure, lead to
congestion within the waterways, higher risks for systems to be damaged, and expedited
needs for repair. If more users come to rely on the waterways, especially for time-sensitive
cargoes such as intermodal containers, maintaining system reliability becomes even more
important. Without reliable waterways, not only will we lose the opportunity to take the
strain off of other modes through increases in waterways transportation, we will risk shifting
the vast quantities of cargo currently moved by water to truck and rail, further exacerbating
congestion in these modes and increasing the costs of maintaining those systems.
U.S. inland waterways are outdated and in unexpected repair
U.S. Army Core of Engineers 12
Charged with U.S. waterways. “US Port and Inland Waterways Modernization Strategy: Options for the Future.” Institutes for Water Resources.
Written April 12th, 2012. Accessed June 26, 2012. https://mailattachment.googleusercontent.com/attachment/u/0/?ui=2&ik=3ba4a2a5e4&view=att&th=1382acc95893ff17&attid=0.1&disp=inline&realattid
=f_h3xin7q80&safe=1&zw&saduie=AG9B_P95T3A0gyqnDYT-zv5lFkju&sadet=1340764597077&sads=JUt-3tnK78wds-uaCbzwSetG6EQ
The Great Lakes provides a water highway for the grain industry of the U.S. and Canada. Typically, U.S. grain
exports account for 40 percent of these tonnages, while Canadian exports account for 60 percent. Nearly all of the Canadian grain passes
through the locks at Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan (the Soo Locks), while
most of U.S. iron ore and large movements of
western U.S. coal also use these locks. The Soo is especially important to the U.S. steel industry
located along the shores of the Great Lakes as Minnesota iron ore mines rely heavily on the Soo
Locks and lake vessels to carry product to their mills. The St. Lawrence Seaway locks at the Welland Canal and on the
St. Lawrence River provide access to the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Atlantic Ocean. Soo Locks accommodates all vessels capable of
transiting the smaller dimension Seaway Locks (maximum dimensions 740-foot length, 78-foot beam and a maximum draft of 26 feet 9
inches). The intra-lake movements in the upper lakes dominate tonnage at the Soo and are made by large vessels (1,000-foot vessels with
a 105-foot beam, drafting around 28 feet) capable of transiting the Poe locks 1200’ x 110’ chamber, but too large for the Seaway and
Welland Canal locks. Soo
Locks traffic was 74.8 million short tons in 2011 (this includes both U.S. and Canadian
traffic transits through the large Poe Lock (1200’ x 110’) or the smaller MacArthur Lock (800’ x
80’). The largest class of vessels capable of carrying 60,000 tons and primarily dedicated to the coal
and iron ore trade is too large for the MacArthur lock. Most of the traffic at the Soo transits the
Poe lock in these large vessels. The absence of an auxiliary lock for these large vessels is a concern
for shippers as the Poe approaches 45 years of operation and MacArthur 79 years. A sharp rise in
unscheduled maintenance at Soo Locks was experienced between 2006 and 2009, which has since
trended downward. Data also reflects the absence of scheduled closures. Scheduled maintenance
work is performed during the annual winter closure; as a result, outages are of lower order of
magnitude than those experienced on the Mississippi or Ohio rivers. Given the lock dimensions on the Welland
traffic). This
Canal and St. Lawrence Seaway, Panama Canal expansion will not result in post-Panamax size vessels visiting Great Lakes grain exporting
ports or iron ore and coal terminals; however, new post-Panamax sized vessels may affect the amount of grain shipped out of the Great
Lakes. If the Mississippi River or the western railroads were to reach their economic carrying capacity, the Great Lakes could serve as an
alternate trade route. The Great Lakes also has the potential to serve as an alternate trade route should catastrophic natural events or
political events occur that disrupt competing trade routes. The
ability of Great Lakes ports (U.S. and Canadian) to meet
new export demands, particularly for grains, is relatively substantial. Current system tonnage of
around 37 million short tons per year represents approximately 60 percent of the system’s current
carrying capacity.
Current maintenance system is inefficient and there is not enough money
Illinois Corn 12, Illinois Corn Growers Association is in charge of Agricultural production of corn in Illinois and uses the Olmsted Lock in
order to transport their goods around the country
http://www.ilcorn.org/uploads/useruploads/files/locks_&_dams/olmsted_locks_and_dam_4-2012.pdf
In January 2012, twenty years later, IL Corn visited the locks and dam to find that cost overruns and an experimental attitude
have nearly ensured that Olmsted Locks and Dam will not be operational until at least 2020 and will
also prevent lock upgrades on the Mississippi and Illinois, Rivers for the next decade. In the President’s
budget request released on February 8, 2012, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) asked for an additional $800
million to complete the dam, bringing the total cost of the project to $3.1 billion and take at least 31 years to complete. This sort
of inefficiency is inexcusable. Users of the locks and dams cannot continue to blindly pay for upgrades
to a necessary system while USACE officials and the federal government ignore the obvious failure of
the lock and dam construction delivery system. Illinois Corn considers the Olmsted Locks and Dam upgrade a
failure and begs for funding to be suspended until an investigation can be completed to discover the
most cost effective manner to complete the project. We cannot continue to pour money into a project when the
construction delivery system is obviously broken.
More investment is needed to maintain waterways
U.S. Army Corp of Engineers 6/20
Institute for water resources, “U.S. Port and Waterway Modernization: Preparing for post-Panamax vessels.” US Army Corp of Engineers.
Written June 20th, 2012. Accessed June 27, 2012.
http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/docs/portswaterways/rpt/June_20_U.S._Port_and_Inland_Waterways_Preparing_for_Post_Panamax_Vessels.
pdf
To remain competitive in a changing global trade market, the U.S. would need to continue making
the justified investments necessary to maintain and improve its navigation transportation
infrastructure where it is appropriate and efficient to do so. Understanding the current funding
challenges and making long‐term plans for operations and maintenance (O&M) and justified
investments are critical to developing an effective vision for a competitive navigation system. USACE
Civil Works appropriations to address waterside infrastructure have averaged about $1.5 to $2
billion per year for the last decade. These expenditures have been used to maintain, construct and
improve the most highly justified inland and coastal navigation infrastructure projects, and reflect
the nation’s most efficient navigation investment strategy. To accommodate expected increase in
agricultural exports through the Gulf, the current inland waterways must be adequately
maintained through maintenance dredging and justified major rehabilitation. USACE currently has
17 active studies investigating possible port improvements, most associated with the desire to be
post‐Panamax ready. One such study at the Port of Savannah is nearing completion and indicates an
economically justified project that will cost about $652 million. It is likely that other studies will
also show economically justified projects, either to become "post‐Panamax ready" or "cascade
ready." The preliminary estimate to expand some ports along these two coasts was about $3‐$5
billion. Specific investments in ports must be individually evaluated for their timing and economic
and environmental merits.
U.S. inland waterways will ceased to be used if they cannot accommodate ships
U.S. Army Corp of Engineers 6/20
Institute for water resources, “U.S. Port and Waterway Modernization: Preparing for post-Panamax vessels.” US Army Corp of Engineers.
Written June 20th, 2012. Accessed June 27, 2012.
http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/docs/portswaterways/rpt/June_20_U.S._Port_and_Inland_Waterways_Preparing_for_Post_Panamax_Vessels.
pdf
USACE supports the safe, reliable, efficient, and environmentally sustainable movement of vessels on 12,000 miles of inland and
intracoastal waterways. The waterways are
the primary artery for half of the nation’s grain and oilseed
exports, 20 percent of coal for utility plants, and 22 percent of domestic petroleum movements. 26
USACE’s role includes maintaining the 191 commercially active lock sites with 238 chambers that allow tows to “stair-step” through the
nation’s heartland. This Center Gulf region, served by the Mississippi River and its navigable tributaries, could be a beneficiary of an
expanded Panama Canal for exports. The Lower Mississippi is currently maintained to a depth of 45 feet. A 50-foot deep Panama Canal
will allow current Panamax vessels transiting the Canal to be loaded to their full draft of 42 feet to 45 feet, a significant improvement over
the current 39.5 feet. For the vessels with a 45 foot draft leaving New Orleans at 39.5 feet heading for Asia, transportation cost saving
gained by loading to 45 feet will be about $0.05 per bushel. USACE completed the UMR-IWW System Navigation Feasibility Study in
December 2004. In 2008, the Re-evaluation of the Recommended Plan: UMR-IWW System Navigation Study – Interim Report, a reevaluation of the feasibility report recommended plan, was completed. Economic models of the river system were developed as part of
this study and were used to assess the ability of the current system to handle potential increases in river traffic resulting from shift of
mode benefits to Asia. Informa Economics, Inc. estimates that the larger, more
efficient Cape class ships reduce the
cost of the movement of grains to northeast Asia by an all-water Panama Canal route by $0.31 to
$0.35 per bushel of grain. 27 Assuming the Informa grain forecast and the re-evaluation report non-grain forecasts (163 million
short tons in 2020), not all potential demand could be accommodated in 2020 with the current system
infrastructure. However, using the alternative analysis assuming the Informa grain forecast and no growth in non-grain (87 million
short tons), all potential traffic could be accommodated without waterway infrastructure efficiency improvements. Beyond the sensitivity
to non-grain traffic growth, several points regarding the accommodated/ unaccommodated traffic conclusions should be emphasized: (1)
The time horizon for these conclusions is 2020. With
additional traffic growth beyond 2020 there would be a
greater magnitude of unaccommodated traffic (in the case of Informa grain and re-evaluation report non-grain), or
an eventual state where at least some traffic would no longer be accommodated (in the case of Informa
grain and no growth in non-grain). (2) The
only constraint to traffic accommodation that has been considered
is inland waterway infrastructure. In particular, landside infrastructure and deep-water port infrastructure have not been
addressed in making inland waterway accommodated/unaccommodated traffic conclusions. (3) The determination that traffic
can be accommodated in the future does not mean that it will be accommodated at existing cost
levels. Given the willingness to pay for water transportation, some increases in cost can be
incurred before shippers make the decision to no longer use the waterway. Any increase in traffic
over the lock and dam portion of the system will result in additional congestion and cost. (4) The
implementation timeframe for the subset of authorized UMR-IWW improvements that is sufficient to address improved
waterway efficiency and “capacity” from a system perspective is no earlier than the mid 2020s.
US ports handle 2 billion tons of export/import cargo
AAPA 9
American Association of Port Authority, alliance of ports in Canada, the Caribbean, Latin America, and the U.S.
“U.S. Port Industry.” AAPA. Written 2009. Accessed June 27, 2012. http://www.aapaports.org/industry/content.cfm?itemnumber=1022&navitemnumber=901
Seaports are gateways to domestic and international trade, connecting the United States to the world.
Because of the nation's port system, food grown by Iowa farmers reaches tables in Japan and
Russia. Manufacturers in Texas can sell goods and services profitably to foreign countries. And
Appalachian and Midwest coal moves through inland waterways and coastal ports to power
plants domestically and around the world, providing the fuel to heat and light homes, businesses and
cities. North America's history has been shaped by its ports on the seacoasts, rivers and the Great Lakes. From
the late 1400s, the sheltered harbors provided safe refuge for early explorers and settlers. Cities depended on
docks and shipping terminals as their communications and commerce lifeline to the rest of the world. As port
cities prospered and grew, the bustling wharfs and big ships became less visible, but no less important, as
major highways and tall buildings dominated the waterfront. For more information about all U.S. deep-draft
seaports, download U.S. Ports Fact Sheet. For specific information about U.S. container ports from the U.S.
Department of Transportation's Research and Innovative Technology Administration, click "America's Container
Ports: Freight Hubs That Connect Our Nation To Global Markets." Ports Benefit the Nation Today, the U.S. is
served by publicly- and privately-owned marine facilities located in approximately 360 commercial sea and
river ports. These are found along the Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf and Great Lakes coasts, as well as in Alaska,
Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Some 150 state, local and county seaport agencies,
navigation districts and port authorities make up the public sector port industry today. Public ports develop
and maintain the shoreside facilities for the intermodal transfer of cargo between ships, barges, trucks and
railroads. Ports build and maintain cruise terminals for the growing cruise passenger industry. In addition to
maritime functions, port authority activities may also include jurisdiction over airports, bridges, tunnels,
commuter rail systems, inland river or shallow draft barge terminals, industrial parks, Foreign Trade Zones,
world trade centers, terminal or short-line railroads, ship repair, shipyards, dredging, marinas and other public
recreational facilities. Ports may also undertake community or regional economic development projects beyond
those of direct benefit to the port itself. Ports play a major role in industrial plant location. Many
manufacturing and processing industries locate their plants at or near waterfront sites to take
advantage of low-cost inbound transportation of raw materials for production and outbound
shipments of finished products to both export and domestic markets. Foreign Trade Zones,
located on port property, also provide incentives for value-added manufacturing services and
trade. What Moves Through Ports U.S. ports and waterways handle more than 2 billion tons of
domestic and import/export cargo annually. By 2020, the total volume of cargo shipped by water
is expected to be double that of 2001 volumes. Much of total domestic production of basic
commodities and finished products is shipped by water, including apples, wastepaper, corn,
lumber, iron ore, steel, scrap steel, potatoes, phosphate, plastics, film, machinery, and modular
homes. About two-thirds of all U.S. wheat and wheat flour, one-third of soybean and rice
production and almost two-fifths of U.S. cotton production is exported via U.S. ports. U.S.produced coal, grain and forest products also compete well in international markets because of
our efficient transportation system. A report released on June 15, 2011, from the U.S. Maritime
Administration shows more ships are stopping at U.S. ports. The stops, or vessel calls, rebounded by 13
percent in 2010, after an 8 percent decline in 2009. Oceangoing vessel calls reflect waterborne trade
between the United States and countries around the world, and are a measure of import, export
and domestic ocean shipments.
Adequate funds are necessary to maintain inland waterways which are key to
economic competitiveness
Boehlert 99, House of Representatives from 1983 - 2007, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment,
Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure 1995-2000
http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/Trans/hpw106-56.000/hpw106-56_1.HTM
the United States' ability to compete and grow in the global economy is contingent upon our ability to
efficiently transport raw goods, commodities and finished products throughout the U.S. for export. In the future, our economic
competitiveness will be built upon our national infrastructure of which inland waterways are key . We
currently have the best and most efficient waterways system in the world, one that is emulated by both industrial and developing countries
around the globe. We
cannot, however, maintain our world-class system without immediate attention to muchneeded projects and the effective use of realistic tools and models in studying projects for future funding. In this regard, the
Board strongly believes that funds spent to maintain and improve the inland waterway infrastructure yield an
overwhelming benefit-to-cost ratio that will have a positive impact on the Nation's economy for
decades and generations to come. The Board also believes that spending limitations anticipated to affect the Army Corps
of Engineers' Civil Works program will significantly affect all projects and studies. So, while Congress supports the inland
navigation system, at this time it appears that adequate Federal funding may not be available to start new projects
or to complete continuing construction on time or on budget. The continuing challenge will be to properly allocate and
expend those Inland Waterways Trust Fund moneys currently available.
Waterways help us move domestic bulk products
AAPA 9
American Association of Port Authority, alliance of ports in Canada, the Caribbean, Latin America, and the U.S.
“Trade and Economic Growth.” AAPA. Written 2009. Accessed June 27, 2012. http://www.aapaports.org/Industry/content.cfm?ItemNumber=1024&navItemNumber=1027
What Trade Means to Us As the American economy has grown, the
United States has become more and more
dependent on its waterborne trade. The transfer of cargoes between land and water carriers at ports has always been
critical to the expansion of trade. A healthy U.S. economy demands trade, and growing trade demands the
continued development of our ports. Deep draft ports accommodate ocean-going vessels which carry more than 99
percent of U.S. overseas trade by weight and 64 percent by value. In addition to international cargoes, our inland and
intracoastal waterways provide a low-cost, environmentally balanced means for moving domestic
bulk commodities, such as grain, coal and petroleum. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, each year, our
inland waterways handle nearly 200 million tons of coal and 125 million tons of liquids, including
crude petroleum, petroleum products, and liquid, molten, and gaseous chemicals. One 3,300-ton barge
carries the same tonnage as a string of 33 rail cars, or 110 tank trucks spanning three miles. America's public ports also serve as a key
element of state and local economic development and job creation efforts, while contributing to our national security. Economic Benefits
In addition to keeping America's goods on the move, our
ports also help keep America's economy on the move. In
2007, port activity contributed more than $3.15 trillion to the Gross Domestic Product, while 13.3
million Americans worked in port-related jobs that generated nearly $650 billion in annual
personal income and $212.4 billion in federal, state and local taxes. *Martin Associates, Lancaster, Pa. Among
the jobs which directly depend on ports are: terminal workers, longshoremen, pilots, forwarders, brokers, steamship agents and lines,
ship crews, warehousing and transloading employees, container repair and leasing companies, chandlers, surveyors, ship repair and
marine construction businesses, barge operators and local government. Since 1994, exports of manufactured products are up 43 percent,
high technology exports are up 45 percent, consumer goods and industrial supplies exports are up more than 40 percent and agricultural
exports increased 31 percent. Some
13.3 million U.S. jobs now depend on the movement of goods through
the nation's deep-draft ports, while nearly all jobs depend on the timely and efficient delivery of
goods thorugh these ports. Jobs created by exports pay 13 to 17 percent higher wages than non-trade jobs in the economy
($49,000 a year on average for port-related jobs in 2007, compared to $37,000 on average for all U.S. workers, according to Martin
Associates, Lancaster, Pa.) Future Growth The
United States has strong competitive trade advantages in
thousands of products including spacecraft, computer processors and powdered milk. America's trade
deficit was up by 35.6% to US$294.2 billion during the first 6 months of 2010. Still, signs that American exports are starting to recover can
be found when one carefully peruses the recently-released statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S.
International Trade Commission. For example, the U.S. ran trade surpluses with 148 countries or territories and incurred trade deficits
with 85 trading partners as of June 2010. Another promising development is the fact that the value of American exports for 2,350 goods
was greater than the value of imports for those same product categories.
Topshelf- Soybeans XT
China Inflation Mod
1ac-Mod
Yuan is stable now-Inflation
Reuters, 11
Reuters, “HIGHLIGHTS-China c.bank: inflation stable, interest rates key”, March 11, 2012,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/11/china-economy-pboc-idUSBJB00404720110311
China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, held an annual press conference on Friday outlining his views
on the challenges ahead for the world's second-largest economy. Below are the highlights from the conference, which
was held in conjunction with the nation's yearly parliament session. All remarks were made by Zhou unless stated otherwise. STABLE
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS "If we
observe the CPI figures for December, January and February, although they
are high, inflationary expectations are currently relatively stable." ON YUAN BECOMING FULLY CONVERTIBLE Hu
Xiaolian, deputy central bank governor: "We believe the conditions for the opening of the capital account are getting better. We believe there
will be fairly big progress in opening China's capital account in the next five years. As to when the yuan will become fully convertible, for now I
have no exact date for you."
Food price inflation is driving broader Chinese inflation – no alt causes
EMEO, 7
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, ‘Food price inflation - a worry for the Emergers?,’ Summer,
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa5497/is_200707/ai_n21300955
Over the last year Chinese
CPI inflation has moved from 1% to 5.6% (for July); during the same period
food price inflation has surged from 0.6% to 15.4%. Assuming that food accounts for about 42% of the
Chinese CPI basket (no CPI weights for China are readily available so we have used the average for food in the CPI
baskets of Thailand, Philippines and Pakistan), the
impact of the increase in food price inflation more
than explains the rise in CPI inflation. This suggests that despite the apparently relentless strength
of the economy there are few, if any, signs of a general move up in consumer prices. This view is
backed up by the fact that manufacturing producer price inflation was only 1.4% in July - lower than
the level prevailing at the start of the year.
High food prices trigger inflation that affect the broader economy – leads to social
instability and gov’t protests
Macartney, 7
Jane, ‘Food costs send Chinese inflation soaring,’ Business Times Online, Nov 13,
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article2862000.ece
Inflation in China accelerated again to a near 11-year peak in October, prompting a visit by Premier Wen
Jiabao to some of Beijing’s poor and a promise to stabilise prices. Consumer price inflation, fuelled by
soaring food costs, rose to 6.5 per cent last month, matching the level in August and rising from 6.2 per cent in
September. The rise makes it all the more likely that the People’s Bank of China will soon raise
interest rates for the sixth time this year. Anxiety among Communist Party rulers that the rise in
costs, particularly for goods, could undermine social stability, was reflected in the prime minister’s
decision to go on a walkabout in the poorer alleys of central Beijing. He ducked into Number 22 Yu’er Alley,
a courtyard of one-storey homes without indoor bathrooms, and shook hands with elderly Liu Xiuying. He told her:
“Prices have been on the rise these days and I'm aware that even a one-yuan (6.5p) increase in prices will affect
Food prices, which tend to be volatile, are not included in core inflation. However,
economists have warned that the surge in prices for everything from pork to cooking oil could spill over into
the broad economy. Dong Tao, chief economist for Credit Suisse in Hong Kong, said: “When you see the
people's lives."
costs at your dinner table going up forever, you will go to your boss and say, ‘Either you give me a salary increase
or I will quit for another job'.”
The spike in inflation last month was overwhelmingly led by a rise in
food prices, which were up 17.6 per cent from a year earlier with vegetables up 29.9 per cent and cooking oil
soaring 34 per cent. Prices of non-food items saw a far more modest increase of just 1.1 per cent, the National
Bureau of Statistics said. With that relatively high rate of inflation set to persist in November, expectations are
growing that the central bank will go ahead with at least one more 0.27 basis point interest rate rise before the end of
The rise in food prices is a sensitive issue for the communist
authorities because China’s poor majority spends up to a third of its income on food. Officials
still remember the leap in inflation in the late 1980s that culminated in hundreds of thousands
taking to streets to show their anger with the government and demonstrate their sympathy with
the year to try to cool the economy.
student protesters in Tiananmen Square in 1989.
Food prices will cause China to overheat – this will collapse the economy and crush
relations with the US
Keidel, 7
Albert, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, ‘China’s Looming Crisis – Inflation
Returns,’ Sept,
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/pb54_keidel_china_looming_crisis_final.pdf
China’s longest-running economic boom since reforms began may finally be coming to an end—
possibly a difficult one. As Americans focus on criticisms of Chinese commercial practices,
China’s economy surges on. It grew an astounding 12 percent in the second quarter of this year. But as this
surge has accelerated, inflation has begun to stalk the land. This spring and summer, food prices
jumped dramatically, and China is now careening on the brink of dangerous overheating.
China’s economy today looks much as it did before the inflationary catastrophes of 1988–1989 and 1993–1996. And
as in the past, China today faces more than inflation. If
inflation gets out of control, draconian steps to
suppress it could cause hardship and social unrest. The consequences would hurt not just growth
but also China’s commercial and political relations with the United States. China has the
domestic policy tools to limit inflation to moderate levels, but if history is any guide, policy adjustments
will be too little and too late. If inflation gets out of hand, strong decisions like those in the past will eventually
restore social equilibrium and rapid growth. But the costs—in delayed progress, public dissatisfaction, and
international criticism—could be high.
Inflation –Low
China will keep the Yuan stable—key to exports
Wall Street Journal 11
Wall Street Journal, “Beijing to Keep Yuan Stable, Premier Says”, October 17, 2012
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203914304576632790881396896.html
SHANGHAI—Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said China will keep the yuan basically stable to avoid hurting
exporters, the highest-level statement yet from Beijing on its currency policy since the U.S. Senate approved a bill that would take China to
task over the issue. Mr. Wen's comments—reported Saturday by China's state-run media—send a signal that Beijing is
unlikely to allow any dramatic yuan appreciation for now, as the country's exporters have started
feeling the pressure from a slowing global economy. "Though we need to sustain our economic growth by increasing
domestic demand, we should not easily give up our shares in the international market," Mr. Wen said, according to the state-run Xinhua news
agency on Saturday.
Stable inflation of the Yuan now—China financial reform
MarketWatch 12
MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal, “China ex-official: Keep yuan globalization stable”, June 10, 2012,
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-ex-official-keep-yuan-globalization-stable-2012-06-10
BEIJING--The process of yuan globalization should be stable and based on China's financial reform, a former
adviser to the country's central bank said Sunday, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. The globalization process will be very complicated
when the yuan capital account isn't fully convertible, Li Daokui told a forum in Tianjin, Xinhua reported. "Historical
experiences
showed that the process to internationalize a country's currency is also a process that the nation's
economy is hit," Mr. Li said, according to the report. It may take more than 10 years to gradually internationalize the Chinese currency,
said Mr. Li, who added that the major barrier for the process now is that no reliable financial products are available for investors
Recent widening of the Yuan’s trading limit ensures stable inflation
The Economic Times 12
The Economic Times, “Wider yuan trading limit for creating more stable environment: China”, April 17,
2012, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-04-17/news/31355446_1_exchange-raterenminbi-yuan
BEIJING: China on Tuesday said its move to widen the daily trading limit of its currency against the US
dollar is aimed at breaking one-way expectation of the yuan's appreciation. "Widening the yuan's
trading band against the US dollar is an important policy arrangement for improving the formation
mechanism of the yuan's exchange rate and a significant step for the market-based reform of the
currency's exchange rate," Commerce Ministry spokesperson Shen Danyang said today. The recent move is conducive to
breaking the one-way expectation for the yuan's appreciation, cracking down on abnormal foreign
exchange movements and creating a more stable environment for foreign trade, he said. The People's
Bank of China, the country's central bank, announced on Saturday that it would widen the yuan's daily trading
limit against the US dollar from 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent starting this week. In the foreign exchange spot market,
Chinese banks can exchange the yuan one per cent above or below the central parity against the US dollar announced by the China Foreign
Exchange Trading System each trading day.
Yuan is stable—strong mid-point
Wildau 12
Gabriel Wildau, XE, “Stronger mid-point keeps yuan stable”, January 10, 2012 https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chromeinstant&ie=UTF8#q=yuan+is+stable&hl=en&tbo=1&prmdo=1&output=search&source=lnt&tbs=qdr:y&sa=X&ei=n7TvT5mnKoW88ASZuumAAg&ved=0CAgQpw
UoBTgK&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.r_qf.,cf.osb&fp=d7a50cc02f3c90da&biw=1366&bih=643
SHANGHAI, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The
yuan held steady on Tuesday after the central bank set a stronger mid-point,
sending a strong signal that global movements in the dollar will be the dominant factor in guiding the
yuan's value in the near term. The dollar traded slightly weaker overnight, prompting the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to set a
stronger mid-point, following three days in which a rising dollar was met with weaker mid-points. Spot yuan closed at 6.3150 on Tuesday, 4 pips
weaker than Monday's close of 6.3146. The PBOC will continue to let the direction of the dollar index determine the trend in its daily fixings in
the near term, traders said. The two rates generally move in opposite directions. 'Looking at the last several trading days since the New Year,
the link between the mid-point and the dollar index has been quite high,' said a foreign exchange trader at a city commercial bank in Shanghai.
The trend indicates that the government's stated policy of keeping the yuan exchange rate 'basically
stable' does not refer exclusively to the yuan-dollar rate, but rather to the yuan's value against a
broader basket of global currencies. 'In the near term, the link with the dollar index will strengthen,' said the trader. Traders
expect that spot yuan will trade in a narrow range for the next several weeks. For full-year 2012, the market is expecting moderate appreciation
of around 3 percent, with increased volatility in both directions. The spot rate has hovered slightly above the central bank's mid-point in the
first few days of the year, a shift from the end of 2011, when the yuan consistently traded below the fixing. This shift is likely due to a narrowing
of the spread between the offshore rate, traders say. After trading at a discount to the onshore rate from mid-September, the two rates
reached virtual parity on Friday. As a result, trading firms that had been purchasing yuan in the offshore market -- in order to take advantage of
the cheaper price there -- began shifting their purchases back onshore, leading to the moderate appreciation pressure evident in the last few
days. In the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, one-year NDFs tracked the onshore movement, reaching 6.3220 in late afternoon on
Tuesday, 80 pips stronger than Monday's close.
Brink: Threshold is very low
Any transition would be violent.
Andrew J. Nathan, Professor of Political Science at Columbia University, 09
[“Authoritarian Impermanence,” Journal of Democracy, Volume 20, Number 3, July 2009, ProjectMUSE]
We have been used to dramatic, bright-line transitions to democracy. Might the Chinese system instead
reform and adapt, adapt and reform, to the point where it emerges on the other side of the looking glass as more
democratic than not? This is the hope of China's rights-protection (weiquan) movement of lawyers, petitioners,
bloggers, and journalists, and of the wider circle of civil society organizations and religious groups
that have so far kept a low profile in order to avoid repression. They hope that the regime will
become enmeshed in the logic of the institutions that it has created as safety valves to preserve its
rule, such as [End Page 38] courts and the media. The Party would then find itself forced to coexist
with an equally powerful civil society, and China would have become a democracy without a
dramatic moment of change. Call it a new type of transition —not breakdown, extrication, or pact,
but segue. The Party resists this scenario. The key lesson that its leaders learned from Tiananmen was to refuse
equal dialogue with society. As the procrackdown premier Li Peng put it during his debates with the
prodialogue Party secretary Zhao Ziyang during the crisis, to allow the demonstrating students to
"negotiate with the Party and government as equals" would be to "negate the leadership of the
CCP and negate the entire socialist system."6 Subsequent events in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union
confirmed that point for the leadership.7 The regime is willing to change in any way that helps it to stay in
power, but is unwilling to relax the ban on autonomous political forces. This makes it more likely that regime change,
should it come, will occur through some kind of rupture. But China's transition will not resemble the Soviet Union's.
China is not in an arms race that it cannot afford. It is not overextended in a security rivalry with the
United States. Its minority populations are only 5 or 6 percent of its demographic makeup, not
more than half. It is not constitutionally structured as a federation whose units have the right to
secede. Nor will the Chinese transition resemble Taiwan's.8 The Chinese government does not need to
integrate a previously excluded ethnic majority. It has not permitted the formation of an organized
opposition or trained the populace in competitive elections. The country is not a dependency of the
United States. The most likely form of transition for China therefore remains the model of Tiananmen, with three
elements coming together: 1) a robust plurality of disaffected citizens (in 1989 because of inflation and
corruption, in the future possibly because of unemployment, an environmental disaster, or some
form of national humiliation); 2) a catalytic event that sends a signal to scattered social forces that the time has
come to rise up; and 3) a split in the leadership (whether due to personality differences, power struggle,
uncertain support of the armed police and military, or ideological division) that renders the response
from the top uncertain or weak and allows the challenge to snowball. That the regime considers itself vulnerable to
just such a scenario is evidenced by the massive efforts that it makes to prevent these three elements from emerging. It
seeks to shield the public from the impacts of economic instability, buy legitimacy among major
social sectors, control bad news, outlaw mobilization, divide and repress opposition, monitor civil
society, control networking tools such as the Internet and cellphones, strengthen the police and paramilitary, and
above all, to keep its own internal divisions out of the public eye so that the opportunity structure for social mobilization
remains unpromising. Such efforts have succeeded so far in dealing with the impact of the [End Page 39]
global economic crisis on Chinese workers. Dispersed back to the countryside from which they
came and given work generated by the government's stimulus package, the peasant workers have not
mounted a challenge to the government. And the regime has succeeded in bottling up Charter 08, the most
broadly based and intellectually sophisticated challenge to its principles of rule since Tiananmen
itself. But the elements of potential crisis can come together at any time. If one imagines the Chinese system
facing the kinds of problems that such countries as the United States, Britain, and Japan have
recently gone through—unsuccessful wars, plummeting economies, unpopular leaders, hypercritical media,
deep divisions over cultural identity—it is as hard to imagine the Chinese system surviving as it is to imagine the
mature democracies collapsing. What keeps such crises of government from becoming crises of the regime are
cultures of open dissent, the robust rule of law, and the institutional capacity to change leaders in response
to public discontent without changing the system. Had China chosen the other path in 1989, it
might have these stabilizing features today. Without them, the authoritarian regime must perform constantly like
a team of acrobats on a high wire, staving off all crises while keeping its act flawlessly together . Today, on the
evidence of our contributors, the regime is managing to do that. But it cannot afford to slip.
MPAX: InstabilityWar with US
Any collapse results in nuclear launch against the U.S.
Renxing 05 - Epoch Times staffwriter
[San, "CCP Gambles Insanely to Avoid Death (Part I)" http://www.theepochtimes.com/news/5-83/30931.html]
“In any event, we, the CCP, will never step down from the stage of history! We’d rather have the whole world, or even the
entire globe, share life and death with us than step down from the stage of history!!! Isn’t there a ‘nuclear bondage’
theory? It means that since the nuclear weapons have bound the security of the entire world, all will die together if
death is inevitable. In my view, there is another kind of bondage, and that is, the fate our Party is tied up
with that of the whole world. If we, the CCP, are over, China will be over, and the world will be over.” 3) “It is
indeed brutal to kill one or two hundred million Americans. But that is the only path that will secure
a Chinese century, a century in which the CCP leads the world. We, as revolutionary humanitarians,
do not want deaths. But if history confronts us with a choice between deaths of Chinese and those of Americans,
we’d have to pick the latter, as, for us, it is more important to safeguard the lives of the Chinese people
and the life of our Party. That is because, after all, we are Chinese and members of the CCP. Since
the day we joined the CCP, the Party’s life has always been above all else!” Since the Party’s life is “above
all else,” it would not be surprising if the CCP resorts to the use of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in its
attempt to postpone its life. The CCP, that disregards human life, would not hesitate to kill two hundred million
Americans, coupled with seven or eight hundred million Chinese, to achieve its ends. The “speech,” free of all
disguises, lets the public see the CCP for what it really is: with evil filling its every cell, the CCP intends to fight all of
mankind in its desperate attempt to cling to life. And that is the theme of the “speech.”
Crisis would cause war with the US
Shirk, 7
Susan Shirk, served as deputy assistant secretary for China at the U.S. State Department from 1997 to
2000.CHINA: FRAGILE SUPERPOWER, 2007,p. 255
When President HiaoJuntio met with President George Bush in fall 2005, he sought to reassure the
American president that China was not a threat by describing the many difficult domestic problems
he was struggling to juggle at home. Although China looks like a powerhouse from the outside, to its leaders it
looks fragile, poor, and overwhelmed by internal problems. But China's massive problems, instead of reassuring us,
should worry us. It is China's internal fragility, not its growing strength that presents the greatest danger. The weak
legitimacy of the Communist Party and its leaders' sense of vulnerability could cause China to behave rashly in a
crisis involving Japan or Taiwan, and bring it into a military conflict with the United State.\
Chinese instability will trigger world war iii
THE STRAITS TIMES, June 28, 2003, p. online
But imagine a China disintegrating- on its own, without neo-conservative or Central Intelligence Agency prompting, much less outright military
invasion because the economy (against all predictions) suddenly collapses. That
would knock Asia into chaos. A massive
flood of refugees would head for Indonesia and other places with poor border controls, which don’t’
want them and cant handle them; some in Japan might lick their lips at the prospect of of World War
II revisited and look to annex a slice of China. That would send Singapore and Malaysia- once occupied
by Japan- into nervous breakdowns. Meanwhile, India might make a grab for Tibet, and Pakistan for
Kashmir. Then you can say hello to World War III, Asia style. That’s why wise policy encourages
Chinese stability, security and economic growth – the very direction the White House now seems to
prefer.
Brazilian Soy Scenario
High Prices  Amazon Defo
High prices increase soybean farming which devastates the Amazon
Astor in 3
Michael, December 18, Environmental News Network, Soybeans: The new threat to Brazilian
Rainforests, http://www.enn.com/news/2003-12-18/s_11441.asp
In town, cowboy-hatted ranchers, recently transplanted from Brazil's prosperous south, rub shoulders with Amazon Indians as streams of
tractor-trailers kick up dust hauling fertilizer in and huge tree trunks out. Nowhere is the doubled-edge thrust of soybeans more apparent than
in this dusty boom town on the rainforest's southern edge. "The
farmers are cutting down everything to make way for
soy and that's good business for me," said Ivo de Lima, a lumber man who moved here recently. A new variety of soybean
developed by Brazilian scientists to flourish in this punishing equatorial climate is good for farmers, too, putting South America's biggest
to the horror of environmental
activists, soybeans are claiming increasingly bigger swaths of rainforest to make way for plantations,
adding to the inroads by ranching. The Amazon lost some 10,000 square miles (25,476 square kilometers) of forest cover last year
alone — 40 percent more than the year before. "After cattle ranching, soybeans are the main driver of Amazon
destruction," said Roberto Smeraldi of Friends of the Earth Brazil. "Today, we have lots of areas being cut down by small holders with the
country on the verge of supplanting the United States as the world's leading exporter. But,
idea of selling them to soybean farmers and in other areas pasture is being converted to soy." With soybean prices at a five-year high, thanks to
a smaller than expected crop this year in the United States, Brazilian farmers are rushing into the jungle to take advantage of cheap land. A bag
of soybeans sells for about 35 reals (US$11.85), allowing a good profit because soybeans cost 17.6 reals-22 reals (US$6-US$7.50) to produce,
said Anderson Galvao Gomes, director of the Celeres agricultural consulting firm." The
price would have to drop considerably
for the expansion to stop," he said.The front line of the soybean advance is in Querencia, a municipality of nearly 6,800 square miles
(17,600 square kilometers) that includes the Xingu National Park, a near-pristine slice of rainforest where 14 Indian tribes live in much the way
they have for thousands of years.
High Soy prices destroy the Amazon
STRI in 8
Smithsonian Tropial Research Institute - Thursday, 10 January 200, http://enviro.org.au/enewsdescription.asp?id=852,
High soy prices affect the Amazon in several ways. Some forests are cleared for soy farms. Farmers
also buy and convert many cattle ranches into soy farms, effectively pushing the ranchers further into
the Amazonian frontier. Finally, wealthy soy farmers are lobbying for major new Amazon highways to
transport their soybeans to market, and this is increasing access to forests for loggers and land
speculators.
Generally
Brazilian soybean farming is destroying the Amazon
Astor in 3
Michael, December 18, Environmental News Network, Soybeans: The new threat to Brazilian
Rainforests, http://www.enn.com/news/2003-12-18/s_11441.asp
Indians say the soybean boom is beginning to change all that. "The soy is arriving very fast. Every time I
leave the reservation I don't recognize anything anymore because the forest keeps disappearing," said
Ionaluka, a director of the Xingu Indian Land Association. The area around Xingu lost about 500 square
miles (1,280 square kilometers) of forest last year. "Across the state, deforestation increased by 30
percent between 2001 and 2002. This year, I don't know about the whole state, but in the region of
Querencia I believe the numbers for deforestation will certainly grow," said Rodrigo Justus Brito,
director of forest resources for the state environmental agency. Indians fear deforestation will dry up
the rivers that run through the Xingu reservation and the chemicals used to keep lizards and termites
off crops will poison their fish. Satellite photos reveal that the southern half of the 10,800-square-mile
(27,648-square-kilometer) reservation is almost completely surrounded by farm fields.
Environmentalists fear that is a picture of the Amazon's future. Soybean producers are lobbying to
pave roads through the jungle and Cargill recently opened a major port in the Amazon River city of
Santarem. Critics say that if left unchecked, soybean cultivation will eventually eat up large swaths of
rainforest and wreck the environment.
Forest Fires
Brazilian soybean farming spurs forest fires that devastate the Amazon
Casson in 3
Anne, August, World Wildlife Fund, Oil Palm, Soybeans and Critical Habitat loss: A report prepared for
the WWF Forest Conversion Initiative,
http://www.wwf.ch/images/progneut/upload/oilpalmsoybeanscriticalhabitatloss25August03.pdf
In Brazil, soybean expansion has also been identified as a contributing cause of the 1998 forest fires,
which affected 14%, or 3.3 million ha of land within the northern Amazonia state of Roraima.
Approximately 1.2 million ha of this land consisted of open and dense rain forest (IFFN 2003). According
to the United Nations Humanitarian Affairs Office (1998), the fires were caused by multiple factors—
one being soybean expansion in the nearby savanna area. The ‘El Nino’ phenomenon caused a serious
drought in the northern and north-eastern parts of Brazil. Land clearing practices then triggered the fires
and increased the severity of the problem. The fires started in savanna areas and were ignited by the
“queimadas” (burning fields for pasture and agricultural crops such as maize, yucca and soy). These fires
are believed to have blazed out of control after temperatures soared and a strong wind of up to 100km
per hour went through the area. The increasing prevalence of fire-dependent agriculture in the
Amazonian region is expected to result in further forest fires, which will posit a significant threat to
the Amazon’s tropical forests (Nepstad et al. 1999).
Brazil Soybean Production Decreasing
Brazilian soybean production is decreasing—causes a shift to American soybeans
Grete 12
Brian Grete, Pro Farmer Senior Market Analyst, “Brazilian Soybean Estimates Continue to Decline”, AG
WEB, March 7, 2012,
http://www.agweb.com/article/brazilian_soybean_estimates_continue_to_decline/
Brazil soybean estimates continue to decline. The state ag agency in Brazil's No. 3 soybean producing state of Rio
Grande do Sul (RGDS) lowered its soybean production estimate to 7.1 MMT from 8 MMT previously due to impacts
from drought. Conab, the Brazilian equivalent of USDA, will update its official Brazilian soybean forecast tomorrow morning and USDA will
follow with its updated crop projection Friday morning. Pro Farmer South American crop consultant, Dr. Michael
Cordonnier, who is currently in Brazil says the Brazilian soybean crop is worse than he anticipated and
feels his current forecast of 68 MMT may be 1 MMT to 2 MMT too high. Dr. Cordonnier says the RGDS crop is some of worst soybeans he has
seen in Brazil over the past 30 years. The long and short of it: Falling
Brazilian crop estimates are keeping Chinese
buyers interested in U.S. soybeans longer than expected, which is the fuel behind the current price
rally in the soybean market.
Brazil soybean production is decreasing because of fungi and drought—causes US fill
in
Dreibus 12
Tony C. Dreibus, Bloomberg, “Brazil Soybean Forecast Lowered On Dry Weather, Oil World Says”, Mrch
6, 2012, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-06/brazil-soybean-forecast-lowered-on-dryweather-oil-world-says.html
Brazilian soybean farmers will collect 68 million metric tons of the oilseed in 2011-12, down 0.7
percent from a forecast last week, as dry weather during growing and disease cut yields , Oil World said. A
fungal disease that’s the worst in four years will curb production after the dryness slashed yields, the
Hamburg-based researcher said today in a report. Output forecasts were cut in the states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul as rain was too late
to save plants, the researcher said. Output will fall 9.7 percent from last year. “Crop
reports from Brazil and Paraguay are
alarming, with yields obtained smaller than expected,” Oil World said. “In Mato Grosso too much rainfall, lack of sunshine
and widespread infestation with the Asian rust fungus will sizably reduce yields below last year’s.” Soybean futures on the Chicago
Board of Trade have gained 10 percent this year as the dry weather cut yield projections. The price gained
10 straight sessions through March 2, the longest winning streak since July 15. Output in South America’s four main producers will fall to 120.9
million tons this year, Oil World said. That’s down from 124.2 million tons forecast on Jan. 27. Farmers in Paraguay will collect 4.2 million tons,
about half what they harvested in 2010-11, according to the report. Oil World raised its outlook for the Argentine crop 1.1 percent to 47 million
tons from the Jan. 27 outlook. “Despite the improved outlook for Argentina, soybean
production will decline steeply in
South America,” the researcher said. “The supply tightness of the current season will spill over into the first half of the 2012-13 season.”
Brazil soybean production down--droughts
Lima 12
Mario Sergio Lima, Bloomberg, “Brazil Soybean Forecast Cut To 66.4 Million Tons”, June 5, 2012,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-05/brazil-soybean-forecast-cut-to-66-4-million-tons.html
Soybean growers in Brazil, the world’s second-largest producer, will harvest less than previously
forecast after drought pared output, the government said. The forecast for the crop year that started Sept. 1
was reduced to 66.4 million metric tons from 66.7 million tons estimated on May 10, the Agriculture
Ministry’s crop-forecasting agency, known as Conab, said in a report today. Production will fall from 75.3 million
tons in the previous crop year. The forecast for corn output was raised to 67.8 million tons from 65.9 million tons. Brazil, the world’s thirdlargest grower of the grain, produced 57.4 million tons of corn in the previous crop year. The U.S. is the world’s largest producer of soybeans
and corn. China is the world’s second-biggest corn grower.
Topshelf XTs :Readiness/Hegemony
Key to military
Key to military transport and economy
Jackson ‘7
USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT LEVERAGING THE STRATEGIC VALUE OF THE U.S. INLAND
WATERWAY SYSTEM by Colonel Donald E. Jackson, Jr. United States Army
Inland waterways are a strategic asset to the nation, enabling the U.S. to significantly increase
economic output in both domestic and international markets, and project military power
more rapidly and effectively into the 21st Century. Over the next 20 years economists
estimate that inland navigation will increase by more than 35%.49 The inland waterway
system is a potential resource upon which we can increase the flow of military cargo.
Continued application of technology to barge operations and integration of the inland waterway
system into the nation’s intermodal system makes this an area ripe for additional
development.50 Waterways already move important national defense resources and other
supplies in large quantities for the armed forces.51 As a mode of transportation, the inland
waterway system is quiet, low profile, and off the public radar.
It’s key to military deployments
Jackson ‘7
USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT LEVERAGING THE STRATEGIC VALUE OF THE U.S. INLAND
WATERWAY SYSTEM by Colonel Donald E. Jackson, Jr. United States Army
One important trend improving the value and capability of the inland waterway system is the
increase, especially since 2000, of container-on-barge transport. Containerization is increasing
the adaptability of inland ports to transport large quantities of goods on barges never before
thought possible. The European Federation of Inland Ports estimates that further growth in the
container sector is likely and inland ports will continue their investment efforts in this field in
order to further improve their position in the transport market.73 Containers can now hold nontraditional cargo such as liquids, perishable (using refrigeration) and non-perishable agricultural
products, as well as bulk cargo such as minerals, petroleum, and others.74 Improved cargo
security is an important benefit of containerization. Container on barge is highly developed in
Europe.75 Containers are designed to be modular for easy interchange among transportation
modes, allowing cargoes to be moved by the combination of ship, rail, and truck that best meets
the needs of shippers and receivers.76 Containers can hold more when transported by barge
since they are not held to same weight limitations as overland transport. Every container
transported by barge means one less truck on the highway. Container-onbarge operations save
fuel, ease congestion on roads, and can haul hazardous materials or other cargo not suitable for
transport through large population centers. Barges facilitate military deployment, moving unit
containers and vehicles in a secure manner preventing pilferage and equipment damage
associated with fast moving and relatively unguarded transport. Inland waterways are
positioned to take some of the lower to moderate value container traffic off the even more
congested roadways. The Columbia-Snake River system already has significant container-onbarge traffic, and similar services are growing along the Gulf Intra-coastal and North Atlantic
ports.
Military deployments key to competitiveness, only federal action solves
Jackson ‘7
USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT LEVERAGING THE STRATEGIC VALUE OF THE U.S. INLAND
WATERWAY SYSTEM by Colonel Donald E. Jackson, Jr. United States Army
In order to maintain our competitive edge, we must assure the strategic mobility of our
economic and military elements of power. The inland waterway system can provide a key,
strategic capability that enables the current and future economic prosperity and national
security of the United States. The federal government, however, must efficiently manage,
adequately fund, and effectively integrate inland waterways with other modes of
transportation at the national level for this to achieve success. Promotion of the inland
waterway system, using an interagency and intra-governmental approach, positions this
capability to provide the additional capacity necessary to meet current and future freight
transportation requirements. Leveraging the strategic value of inland waterways is integral to
building an effective and reliable national transportation network for the 21st Century.
Ships and waterways are critical to U.S. geopolitical power – domestically safeguards
against outside threats.
Sue Roberts et. al, 2011, Prof. and Chair of Geography at the University of Kentucky, previously taught at what
is now Anglia Polytechnic University in Great Britain, Ph.D. is from Syracuse University, Anna Secor is an
Associate Prof. at the University of Kentucky, is a political geographer who does research on questions of space, the
subject, and the state, Matthew Zook is an Associate Professor at the University of Kentucky with a focus on focus
on technological change and shifting geographies of globalization, Antipode, Vol. 44 No. 1, “Critical Infrastructure:
Mapping the Leaky Plumbing of US Hegemony,” p. 8-9
Cables, pipelines, and ships
are the material elements of connection. They enable the global flows deemed
critical to US geoeconomic and geopolitical power and security. Cable 09STATE15133—transmitted to US
embassies around the world, cached by a US Army Private, made globally accessible by Wikileaks, and then transferred from server to server to
evade censorship—is itself a product of and an element within the networked world that it maps (as is our map—Figure 1). As an action request,
the cable represents the first phase in a project that globalizes homeland security; the Critical Foreign Dependencies Initiative exists as a subprogram within a national level initiative (NIPP) and is pursued at the intersection of the DHS and the DOS. The resulting list maps the world
from the perspective of US security, but not from the typical geopolitical perspective of threat and allegiance. Instead ,
the map marks
the points and passages that define US hegemony’s vulnerability and dependency. If the enemy—terrorism,
disease, or natural disaster—cannot itself be mapped, then the geostrategic map can only fixate on the fail points and potential targets. Other
leaked cables might give some sense of how exactly this information is to be “leveraged” and with whom as part of the US DHS’s risk
management approach to vulnerability in a networked age. Perhaps not surprisingly, however, this map
of homeland-securitybeyond-the-homeland nonetheless marks the territorial boundaries of the USA. Because embassies in Mexico
and Canada listed border crossings as part of their assessment of CIKR, the US land border itself emerges, from the outside in, as a critical
foreign dependency. And
because none of the sites marked are within US boundaries (by definition), the
territorial USA pops out of the map like a missing puzzle piece, wholly delineated and complete: the
blank space from which to assess the criticality of the world’s cables, pipes, mines and factories upon which it
depends.
An effective waterways transportation system is a key economic and military resource
– lack of investment undermines our hegemony**
ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers), January 2009, Report Card For America's Infrastructure , “Inland
Waterways,” p. 83, Ebsco Host
Because of their ability to move large amounts of cargo, the nation’s inland waterways are a
strategic economic and military resource. A recent analysis by the U.S. Army War College concluded that
“the strategic contributions of these inland waterways are not well under-stood. The lack of adequate
understanding impacts decisions contributing to effi-cient management, adequate funding, and
effective integration with other modes of transportation at the national level. Rec-ommendations demonstrate
that lever-aging the strategic value of U.S. inland waterways will contribute to building an effective and
reliable national transporta-tion network for the 21st century.” 1 Forty-one states, including all states east of the Mississippi
River and 16 state capitals, are served by commercially navi-gable waterways. The U.S. inland water-way system consists of 12,000 miles of
navigable waterways in four systems—the Mississippi River, the Ohio River Basin, the Gulf Intercoastal Waterway, and the Pacific Coast
systems—that connect with most states in the U.S. The system com-prises 257 locks, which raise and lower river traffic between stretches of
water of different levels.
Military mobility is key to power projection and hegemony.
Donald E. Jackson Jr. & John F. Troxell, 3-30-2007, Colonel in the United States Army, economics instructor
at the U. S. Military Academy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, held assignments in the Department
of Army War Plans Division and as a force planner for the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and
Requirements, “Leveraging the Strategic Value of the U.S Inland Waterway System,” USAWC STRATEGY
RESEARCH PROJECT, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA469583
In order to maintain our competitive edge, we must assure the strategic mobility of our economic
and military elements of power. The inland waterway system can provide a key, strategic capability
that enables the current and future economic prosperity and national security of the U nited S tates. The federal
government, however, must efficiently manage, adequately fund, and effectively integrate inland waterways with other modes of transportation
at the national level for this to achieve success. Promotion
of the inland waterway system, using an interagency
and intra-governmental approach, positions this capability to provide the additional capacity
necessary to meet current and future freight transportation requirements. Leveraging the strategic value of inland waterways is
integral to building an effective and reliable national transportation network for the 21 st Century
The hegemonic declines that your evidence is talking about are small – these kinds of
declines activate American power – aff is key.
Carla Norrlof, 2010, an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto,
“America’s Global Advantage US Hegemony and International Cooperation”
In today’s debate on American decline redux, scholars continue to assume a substitute relation
between economic and political power. Bacevich, for instance, sees the United States as a global enforcer that uses new
advanced means to practice old-style gunboat diplomacy, a development he laments and sees as more or less irreversible.48 Ferguson the mores
and practices in other countries is seen as especially devastating for its dominance. While Mann too sees the United States as a “military giant,”
he does not think military power is of much use, and disparagingly calls it an economic “backseat driver.”50 Mann clearly sees the United
States as a power in decline. In two books, Chalmers Johnson
describes the proliferation of American bases around
the world, the resentment they create, and how it might provoke decline.51 The French analyst Emmanuel Todd
indicts the United States for outright banditry, “the mugging of Europeans by Wall Street,” but does not believe the United States has the
military wherewithal to ensure that it can continue to reap disproportionate economic benefits, or that it is capable of the kind of political (nondiscriminatory) rule that attracts dependable followers.52 Not everyone
has been convinced that the United States has
declined in any meaningful way. As several authors have pointed out, the relative ascendancy of Europe and
Japan was not only to be expected, but an explicit aim of American policy after the war.53 Critics charged
that those who believed that the United States had declined in significant ways had failed to grasp
important changes in the international economy and the prominent role played by multi-national
corporations. 54 To appreciate the full extent of America’s reach one had to take into account the functioning of the world economy, the
vitality of the American economy, the diversity of its population, and its military preponderance. Samuel Huntington was particularly prescient
in identifying what kept America on top and in spelling out challenges to its lead position. He saw the country’s multi-dimensional power base
as difficult for others to replicate and understood that the dynamism of the American economy would take a blow if consumer overstretch got
out of hand, even though he believed that the most serious challenge to American power would come from a coalition of European states.55
While Huntington correctly perceived that America’s preeminence is anchored across a wide range of issue-areas, he did not connect these
different sources of power. In elaborating an alternative way of thinking about the hegemon’s power arc, I show how various
forms of
power mutually reinforce one another as the hegemon travels up and down the power ladder. As I have
already suggested, the consequences of relative decline are potentially favorable to the hegemon and can
in some circumstances activate power
Functioning waterways are key to competitiveness – industry stakeholders.
Donald E. Jackson Jr. & John F. Troxell, 3-30-2007, Colonel in the United States Army, economics instructor
at the U. S. Military Academy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, held assignments in the Department
of Army War Plans Division and as a force planner for the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and
Requirements, “Leveraging the Strategic Value of the U.S Inland Waterway System,” USAWC STRATEGY
RESEARCH PROJECT, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA469583
Second, U.S.
domestic transportation infrastructure is inadequately funded to remain a reliable and
capable artery for international commerce. While much of the transportation infrastructure in the
United States is becoming antiquated, our international competitors are improving their
infrastructure and, consequently, their competitiveness in world markets. 29 Most freight transportation
infrastructure, with the exception of railways, is publicly owned. In the case of highways and waterways, an intra-governmental approach
is used for operations and maintenance as well as new construction. To make matters worse, state and local authorities own the
intermodal facilities through which the national transportation arteries traverse, leading to
unsynchronized modernization and expansion efforts. In each case the cost is extremely high,
resulting in delayed response to needed repair and a cascading failure of the infrastructure to
support needed transportation requirements. “Fix it when it breaks” is not a effective method of
maintaining reliability. For the most part, users of freight transportation infrastructure pay little in comparison to the benefits they reap
for its use. National policy makers and industry stakeholders continue to examine new and innovative ways
of funding operations and maintenance but it is often too little, too late.
Marine highways are the only way we can support the increase in future growth
needed to maintain competitiveness.
Matt Hilburn, May 2007, Associate Editor, Sea Power, Vol. 50 Issue 5, “New Believers,” p. 38, Ebsco Host
The creation
of a "marine highway" as a viable alternative to road and rail seems to be gath-ering
steam, though the ultimate vision of rivers and coastal waterways packed with vessels car-rying
cargo to ports around the country is still quite blurry. Maritime Administrator Sean T .Connaughton is trying to bring that
vision into focus and, in some cases, private companies are making a goof short-sea shipping. Meanwhile, Connaughton's agency is con-ducting
workshops around the country to highlight the advantages of water transport and bring shippers together with potential customers. In February,
Connaughton told the House Com-mittee on Transportation and Infrastructure's Coast Guard and Maritime
Transportation subcommittee about the importance of establishing what he called an "American Marine Highway."
"The world’s waterways are an infinite system, and on marine highways have infinite capacity, "he told the
committee.” Unlike rail and roads, there are no fixed infrastructure costs to develop transportation routes, and
ships can carry more cargo per dollar than any other method of transport. "The full scope of America's Marine
Highway—a system that includes not only our coastal waters, but our inland waterway system and the Great Lakes—is
enormous and, if properly utilized and integrated, can help us expand our way out of the crises before us." Domestic and
international trade volumes will continue to grow. However, Connaught on questions whether the road and
rail systems to support that growth will prove adequate, and he views the nation's waterways is an
under-utilized re-source.
Heg sustainable
2ac-Sustainability
Extend the Norff evidence—military and economic overstretch can be managed, very
little risk those factors cause decline. Role of the dollar, size of our trade and military,
and
Even if they win collapse inevitable – we should retain hegemony as long as possible.
Bradley A. Thayer, 2007, Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State
University, American Empire, Routledge, p. 105
Knowing that American hegemony will end someday does not mean that we should welcome or
facilitate its demise; rather the reverse. The United States should labor to maintain hegemony as
long as possible—just as know-ing that you will die someday does not keep you from planning your
future and living today. You strive to live as long as possible although you realize that it is inevitable that you will die. Like good
health, Americans and most of the world should welcome American primacy and work to preserve it as long as possible.
1ar-Sustainability
Hegemony sustainable – no alternative.
Colin Gray, 2009, Professor of International Politics and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading in
England, Worked at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in England, Hudson Institute, Founder of the
Defense-Oriented Think Tank: National Institute for Public Policy, Graduate of the Universities of Manchester and
Oxford, "AFTER IRAQ: THE SEARCH FOR A SUSTAINABLE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY," p. 5-6
The long list of U.S. problems in Afghanistan and Iraq should not be misinterpreted. It would be a mistake to conclude that: (1) the United
States should cease to act hegemonically; (2) U.S. values (i.e., culture) are flawed, for Americans and some others; (3) the U.S. armed forces
have been demonstrably incompetent. A more sensible interpretation of events would be the following: (1) the
United States is the
only candidate for contemporary hegemon, and world order needs a hegemon willing and able to
serve as world policeman, even one that makes some policy errors9; (2) in major respects U.S. culture is highly
attractive, which is fortunate since it is not easily alterable, but it does need to be advertised and applied with care and restraint abroad; (3)
Americans have become very competent at warfighting, but that prowess has not extended across the whole of the conflict spectrum. In
common with all great powers in the past, the United States has to learn to cope with occasional policy failure .
Failure through human
error or sheer incompetence, friction, and bad luck should not be mistaken for precipitate decline.
Too many commentators today are proclaiming the end of American hegemony. It is true that there
are visible 6 trends hostile to U.S. hegemony, the well-announced “rise of “ China and India, and one
day, just possibly, the EU/Europe, and even a long-delayed Japan and Brazil. But for the time being
and for many years to come, the United States will be the hegemon. This is to say that it will be the
global leader, certainly the most important player, in any matter of grave significance for
international security. This will be what one might call a default reality. It is, and will be, a consequence of conscious
American choice and effort. Also, U.S. leadership, notwithstanding the exception of its behavior towards Iraq, will rest upon a base provided by
broad global consent, albeit not always of an enthusiastic kind.
Heg High
Heg high—economics and interdependence
Friedman 10
George, Founder and CEO of STRATFOR, the World’s Leading Private Intelligence and Forecasting
Company, Media Expert, “The Next 100 Years,” January, Originally Published January 27th 2009, p.4
Standing at the beginning of the twenty-first century, we need to identify the single pivotal event for this century, the equivalent of German
unification for the twentieth century. After the debris of the European empire is cleared away, as well as what’s left of the Soviet Union, one
power remains standing and overwhelmingly powerful. That power is the United States. Certainly, as is
usually the case, the United States currently appears to be making a mess of things around the world. But
it’s important not to be too confused by the passing chaos. The United States is economically,
militarily, and politically the most powerful country in the world, and there is no real challenger to
that power. Like the Spanish-American War, a hundred years from now the war between the United States and the radical Islamists will be
little remembered regardless of the prevailing sentiment of this time. Ever since the Civil War, the United States has been on an
extraordinary economic surge. It has turned from a marginal developing nation into an economy bigger than the next four
countries combined. Militarily, it has gone from being an insignificant force to dominating the globe.
Politically, the United States touches virtually everything, sometimes internationally and sometimes
simply because of its presence. As you read this book, it will seem that it is America-centric, written from an American point of
view. That may be true, but the argument I’m making is that the world does, in fact, pivot around the United States. This is not only due to
American power. It also has to do with a fundamental shift in the way the world works. For the past five hundred years, Europe was the center
of the international system, its empires creating a single global system for the first time in human history. The main highway to Europe was the
North Atlantic. Whoever controlled the North Atlantic controlled access to Europe - and Europe’s access to the world. The basic geography of
global politics was locked into place. Then, in the early 1980s, something remarkable happened. For the first time in history, transpacific trade
equaled Trans Atlantic trade. With Europe reduced to a collection of secondary powers after World War II, and shift in trade patterns, the North
Atlantic was no longer the single key to anything. Now
whatever country controlled both the North Atlantic and the
Pacific could control, if it wished, the world’s trading system, and therefore the global economy. In the
twenty-first century, any national located on both oceans has a tremendous advantage. Given the cost of building naval power,
and the huge cost of deploying it around the world, the power native to both oceans became the
preeminent actor in the intentional system for the same reasons that Britain dominated the
nineteenth century: it loved on the sea it had to control. In this way, North America has replaced Europe as the center of
gravity in the world, and whoever dominated North America is virtually assured of being the dominant global power .
For the twenty-first century, at least, that will be the United States.
Heg high—deterrence outweighs economy
Drezner 11
Daniel Drezner, a Political Science professor at the University of Chicago. The End Of Power?, Foreign
Policy. February 8 , 2011, NP, http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/08/the_end_of_power
DM
On the other hand, neither U.S. deterrent power nor other countries' compellence power has changed all
that much, even in the economic realm. The rest of the G-20 can scream as loud as they want, but quantitative easing is going
to continue. China has tried to find ways to use its newly found financial muscle to force changes in the
international system, to little avail. To be sure, Russia, China and others can compel countries on their immediate periphery, but
even a glance at the 2008 Russian-Georgian war suggests that even modest efforts like these are expensive and messy. So... we live in a
world in which more actors have vetoes over systemic change but no actor has the ability to truly
compel change. This leads to lots of talk about "G-zero worlds" and so forth. Just to be provocative, however, I wonder if what's truly
changed is the extinction of compellence power as we know it. The primary, ne plus ultr tools of compellence require a willingness to kill, jail
or starve a lot of people. Recent flare-ups like Iran in 2009 and Egypt right now suggests that such actions are possible at the domestic level,
but pretty damn costly; even authoritarian countries flinch at using brute force on a domestic population. Cross-border efforts are even more
expensive in terms of both material and reputational costs. This isn't the end of power, but it might be the end of one particular dimension of
power. I'm not entirely convinced that this supposition is true, and am willing/eager to hear counterarguments. That said, I still hereby claim
The End of Power as my title, so everyone else just back off, OK? More seriously, am I missing anything?
Heg high—military
SWR 11
Southwest Ranch Financial, The GLEASON REPORT: Market Timing for Investors Identify Turning Points
in Asset Classes, SWR, January 2011, Pages 13-14, http://www.gleasonreport.com/emails/2011-01tgr.pdf DM
US military influence will wane but not collapse for a while. The American Model is the projection of
military might to gain economic dominance. This is the age-old method of all successful empires. The powerful
military provides protection to allies but they must buy things from the empire at a hefty mark-up. In
return, the protected need spend very little on their own defense. It’s an economy of scale idea and not evil in itself. The method of
modern power delivery is the aircraft carrier fleet. These are functionally obsolete already with the invention of cruise
missiles and silent running small diesel/electric submarines. No one seems willing to test this vulnerability because of
the backup capability of America’s military.
Heg high—military is by far the best
Norrlof 10
Carla, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto, America’s Global Advantage:
US Hegemony and International Cooperation, 2010,
http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=lMfuht7crW4C&oi=fnd&pg=PR11&dq=hegemony+us&ot
s=hI5qlsjyxd&sig=ST9DlbxtORsbXAgyH15DAlFf_Hg#v=onepage&q&f=false
As illustrated in table 2.1, the United States is by far the largest military spender and has actually increased its
share of world military spending over the last twenty years. Moreover, the United States’ lead over its
nearest competitor is actually stronger in the security arena than it was in 1988. The Soviet Union was the
closest rival in 1988, accounting for 18 percent of the world total, whereas China, the country with the second largest share today, only
accounts for 5 percent of the world total. Counting coalitions as potential balancers, the euro area accounts for a lower share today then did
the Soviet Union in 1988. The European Union, on the other hand, accounts for a larger share than did the Soviet Union in 1988. But the
European Union’s share does not amount to even half of the United States’ share of the world total.
Without even throwing the technological sophistication of American weaponry (or the collective
action problems many states experience when deciding to act in the national interest) into the
balance, it is clear that the United States is peerless in the security sphere and has strengthened its
lead in the last two decades. Because of the superiority of American military power, and other states’
dependence on it for effective action, the United States faces very few constraints in the security area.
The 2003 invasion of Iraq is a case in point but there are plenty of other examples. As I will show in chapter 6, there are also economic
advantages associated with this privileged position in the security field.
Heg Brink
America is on the brink of collapse-any event can trigger catastrophe
Ferguson 10 (Niell, Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University, Complexity and
Collapse: Empires on the Edge of Chaos, Foreign Affairs March/April 2010,
http://www.signallake.com/innovation/FergusonMar10.pdf
If empires are complex systems that sooner or later succumb to sudden and catastrophic
malfunctions, rather than cycling sedately from Arcadia to Apogee to Armageddon, what are the implications for the
United States today? First, debating the stages of decline may be a waste of time -- it is a precipitous
and unexpected fall that should most concern policymakers and citizens. Second, most imperial falls are
associated with fiscal crises. All the above cases were marked by sharp imbalances between revenues and expenditures, as well as difficulties
with financing public debt. Alarm
bells should therefore be ringing very loudly, indeed, as the United States
contemplates a deficit for 2009 of more than $1.4 trillion -- about 11.2 percent of GDP, the biggest deficit in 60 years -and another for 2010 that will not be much smaller. Public debt, meanwhile, is set to more than double in the coming decade, from $5.8 trillion
in 2008 to $14.3 trillion in 2019. Within the same timeframe, interest payments on that debt are forecast to leap from eight percent of federal
revenues to 17 percent. These
numbers are bad, but in the realm of political entities, the role of perception is
just as crucial, if not more so. In imperial crises, it is not the material underpinnings of power that really
matter but expectations about future power. The fiscal numbers cited above cannot erode U.S. strength on their own, but
they can work to weaken a long-assumed faith in the United States' ability to weather any crisis. For now, the world still expects the
United States to muddle through, eventually confronting its problems when, as Churchill famously said, all the alternatives have
been exhausted. Through this lens, past alarms about the deficit seem overblown, and 2080 -- when the U.S. debt may reach staggering
proportions -- seems a long way off, leaving plenty of time to plug the fiscal hole. But
one day, a seemingly random piece of
bad news -- perhaps a negative report by a rating agency -- will make the headlines during an otherwise quiet news
cycle. Suddenly, it will be not just a few policy wonks who worry about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy but also the public at large, not to
mention investors abroad. It is this shift that is crucial: a complex adaptive system is in big trouble when its
component parts lose faith in its viability.
Heg Solves War
Hegemony prevents the escalation of global hotspots - retrenchment causes bickering
internationally over leadership and prevents cooperation.
Zbigniew K. Brzezinski , February 2012, CSIS counselor and trustee and cochairs the CSIS Advisory Board. He is also the Robert E.
Osgood Professor of American Foreign Policy at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, in Washington, D.C.
He is cochair of the American Committee for Peace in the Caucasus and a member of the International Advisory Board of the Atlantic Council.
He is a former chairman of the American-Ukrainian Advisory Committee. He was a member of the Policy Planning Council of the Department of
State from 1966 to 1968; chairman of the Humphrey Foreign Policy Task Force in the 1968 presidential campaign; director of the Trilateral
Commission from 1973 to 1976; and principal foreign policy adviser to Jimmy Carter in the 1976 presidential campaign. From 1977 to 1981, Dr.
Brzezinski was national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter. In 1981, he was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom for his role in
the normalization of U.S.-China relations and for his contributions to the human rights and national security policies of the United States. He was
also a member of the President’s Chemical Warfare Commission (1985), the National Security Council–Defense Department Commission on
Integrated Long-Term Strategy (1987–1988), and the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (1987–1989). In 1988, he was cochairman
of the Bush National Security Advisory Task Force, and in 2004, he was cochairman of a Council on Foreign Relations task force that issued the
report Iran: Time for a New Approach. Dr. Brzezinski received a B.A. and M.A. from McGill University (1949, 1950) and Ph.D. from Harvard
University (1953). He was a member of the faculties of Columbia University (1960–1989) and Harvard University (1953–1960). Dr. Brzezinski
holds honorary degrees from Georgetown University, Williams College, Fordham University, College of the Holy Cross, Alliance College, the
Catholic University of Lublin, Warsaw University, and Vilnius University. He is the recipient of numerous honors and awards, “After America”
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/03/after_america?page=0,0
For if
America falters, the world is unlikely to be dominated by a single preeminent successor -- not even China. International
uncertainty, increased tension among global competitors, and even outright chaos would be far more likely outcomes. While a
sudden, massive crisis of the American system -- for instance, another financial crisis -- would produce a fast-moving chain reaction leading to
global political and economic disorder,
a steady drift by America into increasingly pervasive decay or endlessly widening
warfare with Islam would be unlikely to produce, even by 2025, an effective global successor. No single power will be
ready by then to exercise the role that the world, upon the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, expected the United States to play: the leader of a
new, globally cooperative world order. More
probable would be a protracted phase of rather inconclusive
realignments of both global and regional power, with no grand winners and many more losers, in a
setting of international uncertainty and even of potentially fatal risks to global well-being. Rather than a
world where dreams of democracy flourish, a Hobbesian world of enhanced national security based on varying fusions of authoritarianism,
nationalism, and religion could ensue. RELATED 8 Geopolitically Endangered Species The leaders of the world's second-rank powers, among
them India,
Japan, Russia, and some European countries, are already assessing the potential impact of
U.S. decline on their respective national interests. The Japanese, fearful of an assertive China dominating the Asian mainland, may be
thinking of closer links with Europe. Leaders in India and Japan may be considering closer political and even military cooperation in case
America falters and China rises. Russia, while perhaps engaging in wishful thinking (even schadenfreude) about America's uncertain
prospects, will
almost certainly have its eye on the independent states of the former Soviet Union.
Europe, not yet cohesive, would likely be pulled in several directions: Germany and Italy toward Russia because of
commercial interests, France and insecure Central Europe in favor of a politically tighter European Union, and Britain toward manipulating a
balance within the EU while preserving its special relationship with a declining United States. Others
may move more rapidly to
carve out their own regional spheres: Turkey in the area of the old Ottoman Empire, Brazil in the Southern Hemisphere, and so
forth. None of these countries, however, will have the requisite combination of economic, financial,
technological, and military power even to consider inheriting America's leading role. China, invariably
mentioned as America's prospective successor, has an impressive imperial lineage and a strategic tradition of carefully calibrated patience, both
of which have been critical to its overwhelmingly successful, several-thousand-year-long history. China thus prudently accepts the existing
international system, even if it does not view the prevailing hierarchy as permanent. It recognizes that success depends not on the system's
China is not yet
ready to assume in full America's role in the world. Beijing's leaders themselves have repeatedly emphasized that on every
important measure of development, wealth, and power, China will still be a modernizing and developing state several
decades from now, significantly behind not only the United States but also Europe and Japan in the
major per capita indices of modernity and national power. Accordingly, Chinese leaders have been
restrained in laying any overt claims to global leadership. At some stage, however, a more assertive
Chinese nationalism could arise and damage China's international interests. A swaggering, nationalistic Beijing
dramatic collapse but on its evolution toward a gradual redistribution of power. Moreover, the basic reality is that
would unintentionally mobilize a powerful regional coalition against itself. None of China's key neighbors -India, Japan, and Russia -- is ready to acknowledge China's entitlement to America's place on the global totem pole. They might even
seek support from a waning America to offset an overly assertive China. The resulting regional
scramble could become intense, especially given the similar nationalistic tendencies among China's
neighbors. A phase of acute international tension in Asia could ensue. Asia of the 21st century could then
begin to resemble Europe of the 20th century -- violent and bloodthirsty. At the same time, the security of
a number of weaker states located geographically next to major regional powers also depends on the international
status quo reinforced by America's global preeminence -- and would be made significantly more vulnerable in proportion
to America's decline. The states in that exposed position -- including Georgia, Taiwan, South Korea, Belarus, Ukraine,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Israel, and the greater Middle East -- are today's geopolitical equivalents of nature's most
endangered species. Their fates are closely tied to the nature of the international environment left behind
by a waning America, be it ordered and restrained or, much more likely, self-serving and
expansionist. A faltering United States could also find its strategic partnership with Mexico in
jeopardy. America's economic resilience and political stability have so far mitigated many of the challenges posed by such sensitive
neighborhood issues as economic dependence, immigration, and the narcotics trade. A decline in American power, however,
would likely undermine the health and good judgment of the U.S. economic and political systems. A
waning United States would likely be more nationalistic, more defensive about its national identity,
more paranoid about its homeland security, and less willing to sacrifice resources for the sake of
others' development. The worsening of relations between a declining America and an internally troubled Mexico could even give rise
to a particularly ominous phenomenon: the emergence, as a major issue in nationalistically aroused Mexican politics, of territorial claims
justified by history and ignited by cross-border incidents. Another
consequence of American decline could be a
corrosion of the generally cooperative management of the global commons -- shared interests such as
sea lanes, space, cyberspace, and the environment, whose protection is imperative to the long-term
growth of the global economy and the continuation of basic geopolitical stability. In almost every case, the
potential absence of a constructive and influential U.S. role would fatally undermine the essential
communality of the global commons because the superiority and ubiquity of American power creates
order where there would normally be conflict. None of this will necessarily come to pass. Nor is the concern that America's
decline would generate global insecurity, endanger some vulnerable states, and produce a more troubled North American neighborhood an
argument for U.S. global supremacy. In fact, the strategic complexities of the world in the 21st century make such supremacy unattainable. But
those dreaming today of America's collapse would probably come to regret it. And as the world
after America would be
increasingly complicated and chaotic, it is imperative that the United States pursue a new, timely strategic vision for its foreign
policy -- or start bracing itself for a dangerous slide into global turmoil.
History is on our side – there’s zero chance that war erupts or escalates in a world of
the aff – there is only a risk of war if you vote neg.
Bradley A. Thayer, 2007, Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State
University, American Empire, Routledge, p. 45
Peace, like good health, is not often noticed, but certainly is missed when absent. Throughout
history, peace and stability
have been a major benefit of empires. In fact, pax Romana in Latin means the Roman peace, or the stabil-ity brought about by
the Roman Empire. Rome’s power was so overwhelming that no one could challenge it successfully for hundreds of years. The result was
stability within the Roman Empire. Where Rome conquered, peace, law, order, education, a common language, and much else followed. That
was true of the British Empire (pax Britannica) too. So it is
with the United States today. Peace and stability are
major benefits of the American Empire. The fact that America is so powerful actually reduces the
likelihood of major war. Scholars of international politics have found that the presence of a dominant
state in international politics actually reduces the likelihood of war because weaker states, including
even great powers, know that it is unlikely that they could challenge the dominant state and win. They
may resort to other mechanisms or tactics to challenge the dominant coun-try, but are unlikely to do so directly. This means that there
will be no wars between great powers. At least, not until a challenger (certainly China) thinks it can overthrow the dominant
state (the United States). But there will be intense security competition—both China and the United States will watch each other closely, with
their intelligence communities increasingly focused on each other, their diplomats striving to ensure that countries around the world do not align
with the other, and their militaries seeing the other as their principal threat. This is not unusual in international politics but, in fact, is its
“normal” condition. Americans may not pay much attention to it until a crisis occurs. But right now states are competing with one another. This
is because international politics does not sleep; it never takes a rest.
Prefer our internal links – explains the last five centuries of global hegemons.
Daniel Drezner, 2001, professor of international politics at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts
Universit, “State structure, technological leadership and the maintenance of hegemony,”
http://www.danieldrezner.com/research/tech.pdf
In this decade, proponents of globalization argue that because information and capital are mobile, the location of innovation has been rendered
unimportant.6 While this notion has some popular appeal, the globalization thesis lacks theoretical or empirical support. Theoretically, even in a
world of perfect information and perfect capital mobility,
economists have shown that the location of technological
innovation matters.7 Empirically, the claims of globalization proponents have been far-fetched. Capital is not perfectly mobile, and
increased economic exchange does not lead to a seamless transfer of technology from one country to another.8 The location of innovation still
matters. Long-cycle theorists
have paid the most attention to the link between technological innovation,
economic growth, and the rise and fall of hegemons.9 They argue that the past five hundred years of the
global political economy can be explained by the waxing and waning of hegemonic powers. Countries
acquire hegemonic status because they are the first to develop a cluster of technologies in leading
sectors. These innovations generate spillover effects to the rest of the lead economy, and then to the global economy. Over time, these
‘technological hegemons’ fail to maintain the rate of innovations, leading to a period of strife until a
new hegemonic power is found.
Statistical backing indicates hegemony has decreased wars since WW2.
John M. Owen, 2-11-2011, Professor of Politics at University of Virginia PhD from Harvard, "DON’T
DISCOUNT HEGEMONY," www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/
Andrew Mack
and his colleagues at the Human Security Report Project are to be congratulated. Not only do they present a
study with a striking conclusion, driven by data, free of theoretical or ideological bias , but they also do
something quite unfashionable: they bear good news. Social scientists really are not supposed to do that. Our job is, if not to be
Malthusians, then at least to point out disturbing trends, looming catastrophes, and the imbecility and mendacity of policy makers. And then it is
to say why, if people listen to us, things will get better. We do this as if our careers depended upon it, and perhaps they do; for if all is going to
be well, what need then for us? Our colleagues at Simon Fraser University are brave indeed. That may sound like a setup, but it is not. I shall
challenge neither the data nor the general conclusion that violent
conflict around the world has been decreasing in fits
and starts since the Second World War. When it comes to violent conflict among and within
countries, things have been getting better. (The trends have not been linear—Figure 1.1 actually shows that the frequency of
interstate wars peaked in the 1980s—but the 65-year movement is clear.) Instead I shall accept that Mack et al. are correct on the macro-trends,
and focus on their explanations they advance for these remarkable trends. With apologies to any readers of this forum who recoil from academic
debates, this might get mildly theoretical and even more mildly methodological. Concerning international wars, one version of the “nuclearpeace” theory is not in fact laid to rest by the data. It is certainly true that nuclear-armed states have been involved in many wars. They have
even been attacked (think of Israel), which falsifies the simple claim of “assured destruction”—that any nuclear country A will deter any kind of
attack by any country B because B fears a retaliatory nuclear strike from A. But the most important “nuclear-peace” claim has been about
mutually assured destruction, which obtains between two robustly nuclear-armed states. The claim is that (1) rational states having second-strike
capabilities—enough deliverable nuclear weaponry to survive a nuclear first strike by an enemy—will have an overwhelming incentive not to
attack one another; and (2) we can safely assume that nuclear-armed states are rational. It follows that states with a second-strike capability will
not fight one another. Their colossal atomic arsenals neither kept the United States at peace with North Vietnam during the Cold War nor the
Soviet Union at peace with Afghanistan. But the argument remains strong that those arsenals did help keep the United States and Soviet Union
at peace with each other. Why non-nuclear states are not deterred from fighting nuclear states is an important and open question. But in a time
when calls to ban the Bomb are being heard from more and more quarters, we must be clear about precisely what the broad trends toward peace
can and cannot tell us. They may tell us nothing about why we have had no World War III, and little about the wisdom of banning the Bomb
now. Regarding
the downward trend in international war, Professor Mack is friendlier to more
palatable theories such as the “democratic peace” (democracies do not fight one another, and the
proportion of democracies has increased, hence less war); the interdependence or “commercial peace”
(states with extensive economic ties find it irrational to fight one another , and interdependence has increased,
hence less war); and the notion that people around the world are more anti-war than their forebears were. Concerning the downward trend in
civil wars, he favors theories of economic growth (where commerce is enriching enough people, violence is less appealing—a logic similar to
that of the “commercial peace” thesis that applies among nations) and the end of the Cold War (which end reduced superpower support for rival
rebel factions in so many Third-World countries). These are all plausible mechanisms for peace. What is more, none of them
excludes any other; all could be working toward the same end. That would be somewhat puzzling, however. Is the world just lucky these days?
How is it that an array of peace-inducing factors happens to be working coincidentally in our time,
when such a magical array was absent in the past? The answer may be that one or more of these
mechanisms reinforces some of the others, or perhaps some of them are mutually reinforcing. Some scholars, for example,
have been focusing on whether economic growth might support democracy and vice versa, and whether both might support international
cooperation, including to end civil wars. We
would still need to explain how this charmed circle of causes got
started, however. And here let me raise another factor, perhaps even less appealing than the “nuclear peace” thesis, at
least outside of the United States. That factor is what international relations scholars call hegemony—specifically American hegemony.
A theory that many regard as discredited, but that refuses to go away, is called hegemonic stability
theory. The theory emerged in the 1970s in the realm of international political economy. It asserts that for the global economy to remain
open—for countries to keep barriers to trade and investment low—one powerful country must take the lead. Depending on the theorist we
consult, “taking the lead” entails paying for global public goods (keeping the sea lanes open, providing liquidity to the international economy),
coercion (threatening to raise trade barriers or withdraw military protection from countries that cheat on the rules), or both. The theory is
skeptical that international cooperation in economic matters can emerge or endure absent a hegemon. The
distastefulness of such
claims is self-evident: they imply that it is good for everyone the world over if one country has more
wealth and power than others. More precisely, they imply that it has been good for the world that
the United States has been so predominant. There is no obvious reason why hegemonic stability theory could not apply to
other areas of international cooperation, including in security affairs, human rights, international law, peacekeeping (UN or otherwise), and so
on. What I want to suggest here—suggest, not test—is that American
hegemony might just be a deep cause of the
steady decline of political deaths in the world. How could that be? After all, the report states that United States is the third
most war-prone country since 1945. Many of the deaths depicted in Figure 10.4 were in wars that involved the United States (the Vietnam War
being the leading one). Notwithstanding politicians’ claims to the contrary, a candid look at U.S. foreign policy reveals that the country is as
ruthlessly self-interested as any other great power in history. The answer is that U.S.
hegemony might just be a deeper cause
of the proximate causes outlined by Professor Mack. Consider economic growth and openness to
foreign trade and investment, which (so say some theories) render violence irrational. American power and policies
may be responsible for these in two related ways. First, at least since the 1940s Washington has prodded
other countries to embrace the market capitalism that entails economic openness and produces sustainable economic
growth. The United States promotes capitalism for selfish reasons, of course: its own domestic system depends upon growth, which in turn
depends upon the efficiency gains from economic interaction with foreign countries, and the more the better. During the Cold War most of its
allies accepted some degree of market-driven growth. Second, the
U.S.-led western victory in the Cold
Otherwise – status based great power conflict is inevitable – relative lead key to
prevent global conflict.
William C. Wohlforth, 2009, a professor of government at Dartmouth College, “Unipolarity, Status
Competition, and Great Power War” Project Muse
Second, I question the dominant view that status quo evaluations are relatively independent of the distribution of capabilities. If the
status
of states depends in some measure on their relative capabilities, and if states derive utility from status, then different
distributions of capabilities may affect levels of satisfaction, just as different income distributions may affect levels of status competition in
domestic settings. 6 Building on research in psychology and sociology, I argue that even
capabilities distributions among
major powers foster ambiguous status hierarchies, which generate more dissatisfaction and clashes
over the status quo. And the more stratified the distribution of capabilities, the less likely such status
competition is. Unipolarity thus generates far fewer incentives than either bipolarity or multipolarity
for direct great power positional competition over status. Elites in the other major powers continue
to prefer higher status, but in a unipolar system they face comparatively weak incentives to translate
that preference into costly action. And the absence of such incentives matters because social status
is a positional good—something whose value depends on how much one has in relation to others.7 “If everyone has high status,”
Randall Schweller notes, “no one does.”8 While one actor might increase its status, all cannot simultaneously do so. High status is thus
inherently scarce, and competitions for status tend to be zero sum.9 I begin by describing the puzzles facing predominant theories that status
competition might solve. Building on recent research on social identity and status seeking, I then show that under certain conditions the ways
decision makers identify with the states they represent may prompt them to frame issues as positional disputes over status in a social hierarchy. I
develop hypotheses that tailor this scholarship to the domain of great power politics, showing how the probability of status competition is likely
to be linked to polarity. The rest of the article investigates whether there is sufficient evidence for these hypotheses to warrant further refinement
and testing. I pursue this in three ways: by showing that the theory advanced here is consistent with what we know about large-scale patterns of
great power conflict through history; by [End Page 30] demonstrating that the causal mechanisms it identifies did drive relatively secure major
powers to military conflict in the past (and therefore that they might do so again if the world were bipolar or multipolar); and by showing that
observable evidence concerning the major powers’ identity politics and grand strategies under unipolarity are consistent with the theory’s
expectations. Puzzles of Power and War Recent research on the connection between the distribution of capabilities and war has concentrated on
a hypothesis long central to systemic theories of power transition or hegemonic stability: that major
war arises out of a power
shift in favor of a rising state dissatisfied with a status quo defended by a declining satisfied state.10 Though they have
garnered substantial empirical support, these theories have yet to solve two intertwined empirical and theoretical puzzles—each of which might
be explained by positional concerns for status. First, if the material costs and benefits of a given status quo are what matters, why would a state
be dissatisfied with the very status quo that had abetted its rise? The rise of China today naturally prompts this question, but it is hardly a novel
situation. Most of
the best known and most consequential power transitions in history featured rising
challengers that were prospering mightily under the status quo. In case after case, historians argue
that these revisionist powers sought recognition and standing rather than specific alterations to the
existing rules and practices that constituted the order of the day. In each paradigmatic case of hegemonic war, the
claims of the rising power are hard to reduce to instrumental adjustment of the status quo. In R. Ned Lebow’s reading, for example, Thucydides’
account tells us that the rise of Athens posed unacceptable threats not to the security or welfare of Sparta but rather to its identity as leader of the
Greek world, which was an important cause of the Spartan assembly’s vote for war.11 The issues that inspired Louis XIV’s and Napoleon’s
dissatisfaction with the status quo were many and varied, but most accounts accord [End Page 31] independent importance to the drive for a
position of unparalleled primacy. In these and other hegemonic struggles among leading states in post-Westphalian Europe, the rising
challenger’s dissatisfaction is often difficult to connect to the material costs and benefits of the status quo, and much contemporary evidence
revolves around issues of recognition and status.12 Wilhemine Germany is a fateful case in point. As Paul Kennedy has argued, underlying
material trends as of 1914 were set to propel Germany’s continued rise indefinitely, so long as Europe remained at peace.13 Yet Germany
chafed under the very status quo that abetted this rise and its elite focused resentment on its chief trading partner—the great power that
presented the least plausible threat to its security: Great Britain. At fantastic cost, it built a battleship fleet with no plausible strategic purpose
other than to stake a claim on global power status.14 Recent historical studies present strong evidence that, far from fearing attacks from Russia
and France, German leaders sought to provoke them, knowing that this would lead to a long, expensive, and sanguinary war that Britain was
certain to join.15 And of all the motivations swirling round these momentous decisions, no serious historical account fails to register German
leaders’ oft-expressed yearning for “a place in the sun.” The second puzzle is bargaining failure. Hegemonic theories tend to model war as a
conflict over the status quo without specifying precisely what the status quo is and what flows of benefits it provides to states.16 Scholars
generally follow Robert Gilpin in positing that the underlying issue concerns a “desire to redraft the rules by which relations among nations
work,” “the nature and governance of the system,” and “the distribution of territory among the states in the system.”17 If these are the [End
Page 32] issues at stake, then systemic theories of hegemonic war and power transition confront the puzzle brought to the fore in a seminal
article by James Fearon: what prevents states from striking a bargain that avoids the costs of war? 18 Why can’t states renegotiate the
international order as underlying capabilities distributions shift their relative bargaining power? Fearon proposed that one answer consistent
with strict rational choice assumptions is that such bargains are infeasible when the issue at stake is indivisible and cannot readily be portioned
out to each side. Most aspects of a given international order are readily divisible, however, and, as Fearon stressed, “both the intrinsic
complexity and richness of most matters over which states negotiate and the availability of linkages and side-payments suggest that intermediate
bargains typically will exist.”19 Thus, most scholars have assumed that the indivisibility problem is trivial, focusing on two other rational
choice explanations for bargaining failure: uncertainty and the commitment problem.20 In the view of many scholars, it is these problems,
rather than indivisibility, that likely explain leaders’ inability to avail themselves of such intermediate bargains. Yet recent research inspired by
constructivism shows how issues that are physically divisible can become socially indivisible, depending on how they relate to the identities of
decision makers.21 Once issues surrounding the status quo are framed in positional terms as bearing on the disputants’ relative standing, then, to
the extent that they value their standing itself, they may be unwilling to pursue intermediate bargaining solutions. Once linked to status, easily
divisible issues that theoretically provide opportunities for linkages and side payments of various sorts may themselves be seen as indivisible
and thus unavailable as avenues for possible intermediate bargains. The historical record surrounding major wars is War
damaged the
credibility of alternative paths to development—communism and import-substituting industrialization being the two leading
ones—and left market capitalism the best model. The end of the Cold War also involved an end to the billions of rubles in
Soviet material support for regimes that tried to make these alternative models work. (It also, as Professor Mack notes, eliminated the
superpowers’ incentives to feed civil violence in the Third World.) What we call globalization is caused in part by the emergence of the United
States as the global hegemon. The same case can be made, with somewhat more difficulty, concerning the spread of democracy.
Washington has supported democracy only under certain conditions—the chief one being the absence of a popular antiAmerican movement in the target state—but those conditions have become much more widespread following the collapse of communism. Thus
in the 1980s the Reagan administration—the most anti-communist government America ever had—began to dump America’s old dictator
friends, starting in the Philippines. Today
Islamists tend to be anti-American, and so the Obama administration
is skittish about democracy in Egypt and other authoritarian Muslim countries. But general U.S.
material and moral support for liberal democracy remains strong. rich with evidence suggesting that positional
concerns over status frustrate bargaining: expensive, protracted conflict over what appear to be minor issues; a propensity on the part of decision
makers to frame issues in terms of relative rank even when doing so makes bargaining harder; decision-makers’ [End Page 33] inability to
accept feasible divisions of the matter in dispute even when failing to do so imposes high costs; demands on the part of states for observable
evidence to confirm their estimate of an improved position in the hierarchy; the inability of private bargains to resolve issues; a frequently
observed compulsion for the public attainment of concessions from a higher ranked state; and stubborn resistance on the part of states to which
such demands are addressed even when acquiescence entails limited material cost. The literature on bargaining failure in the context of power
shifts remains inconclusive, and it is premature to take any empirical pattern as necessarily probative. Indeed, Robert Powell has recently
proposed that indivisibility is not a rationalistic explanation for war after all: fully rational leaders with perfect information should prefer to
settle a dispute over an indivisible issue by resorting to a lottery rather than a war certain to destroy some of the goods in dispute. What might
prevent such bargaining solutions is not indivisibility itself, he argues, but rather the parties’ inability to commit to abide by any agreement in
the future if they expect their relative capabilities to continue to shift.22 This is the credible commitment problem to which many theorists are
now turning their attention. But how it relates to the information problem that until recently dominated the formal literature remains to be
seen.23 The larger point is that positional concerns for status may help account for the puzzle of bargaining failure. In the rational choice
bargaining literature, war is puzzling because it destroys some of the benefits or flows of benefits in dispute between the bargainers, who would
be better off dividing the spoils without war. Yet what happens to these models if what matters for states is less the flows of material benefits
themselves than their implications for relative status? The salience of this question depends on the relative importance of positional concern for
status among states. Do Great Powers Care about Status? Mainstream theories generally posit that states come to blows over an international
status quo only when it has implications for their security or material well-being. The guiding assumption is that a state’s satisfaction [End Page
34] with its place in the existing order is a function of the material costs and benefits implied by that status.24 By that assumption, once a state’s
status in an international order ceases to affect its material wellbeing, its relative standing will have no bearing on decisions for war or peace.
But the assumption is undermined by cumulative research in disciplines ranging from neuroscience
and evolutionary biology to economics, anthropology, sociology, and psychology that human beings
are powerfully motivated by the desire for favorable social status comparisons. This research
suggests that the preference for status is a basic disposition rather than merely a strategy for attaining other goals.25
People often seek tangibles not so much because of the welfare or security they bring but because of the social status they confer. Under
certain conditions, the search for status will cause people to behave in ways that directly contradict
their material interest in security and/or prosperity.
AT: Transition wars
Decline shreds global cooperation – no smooth transition.
Randall L. Schweller, December 2009, professor of political science at Ohio State University, “Ennui Becomes
Us,” http://nationalinterest.org/article/ennui-becomes-us-3330?page=show
AND AS
power devolves throughout the international system, new actors will emerge and develop to compete with
states as power centers. Along these lines, Richard Haass claims that we have entered an "age of nonpolarity," in which states
"are being challenged from above, by regional and global organizations; from below, by militias; and from the side, by a variety of
nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and corporations." Of course, there is nothing especially new about this observation; cosmopolitan
liberals have been pronouncing (prematurely, in my view) the demise of the nation-state-the so-called "hollow state" and a crisis of state powerand the rise of nonstate actors for many decades. What is new is that even state-centric realists like Fareed Zakaria are now predicting a postAmerican world, in which international order is no longer a matter decided solely by the political and military power held by a single hegemon
or even a group of leading states. Instead, the coming
world will be governed by messy ad hoc arrangements
composed of à la carte multilateralism and networked interactions among state and nonstate actors. One wonders what order
and concerted action mean in a world that lacks fixed and predictable structures and relationships. Given the haphazard and
incomplete manner by which the vacuum of lost state power is being filled, why expect order at all?
THE MACROPICTURE that emerges from these global trends is one of historically unprecedented change in a direction consistent with
increasing entropy: unprecedented hegemonic decline; an unprecedented transfer of wealth, knowledge and economic power from West to East;
unprecedented information flows; and an unprecedented rise in the number and kinds of important actors. Thus, the
onset of this
extreme multipolarity or multi-multipolarity will not herald, as some observers believe, a return to the past.
To the contrary, it will signal that maximum entropy is setting in, that the ultimate state of inert uniformity and unavailable energy is coming,
that time does have a direction in international politics and that there is
no going back because the initial conditions of the system have
it will have ended. Its deep structure of
anarchy-the lack of a sovereign arbiter to make and enforce agreements among states-will remain. But increasing entropy will result in a
world full of fierce international competition and corporate warfare; continued extremism; low
levels of trust; the formation of nonstate identities that frustrate purposeful and concerted national actions; and new nongeographic
been lost forever. If and when we reach such a point in time, much of international politics as we know
political spaces that bypass the state, favor low-intensity-warfare strategies and undermine traditional alliance groupings. Most important,
entropy will reduce and diffuse usable power in the system, dramatically
reshaping the landscape of international
politics. The United States will see its relative power diminish, while others will see their power rise. To avoid crises and confrontation, these
ongoing tectonic changes must be reflected in the superstructure of international authority. Increasing entropy, however, means that the
antiquated global architecture will only grow more and more creaky and resistant to overhaul. No
one will know where authority resides because it will not reside anywhere; and without authority, there can be
no governance of any kind. The already-overcrowded and chaotic landscape will continue to be filled with more meaningless stuff; and the
specter of international cooperation, if it was ever anything more than an apparition, will die a slow but sure death.
AT: Waterways resilient
U.S. waterways lack resiliency any threat to the system will threaten the U.S. economy
– investment is key.
ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers), January 2009, Report Card For America's Infrastructure , “Inland
Waterways,” p. 88, Ebsco Host
The current
system of inland waterways lacks resilience. Waterway usage is increas-ing, but facilities
are aging and many are well past their design life of 50 years. Recov-ery from any event of significance
would be negatively impacted by the age and dete-riorating condition of the system, posing a direct
threat to the American economy. Conclusion Inland and intracoastal waterways directly serve 38 states
including the states on the Atlantic seaboard, the Gulf Coast, and the Pacific Northwest. Ship-pers and consumers in these states depend on the
inland waterways to
move approxi-mately 630 million tons of cargo valued at more than $73 billion
annually. States on the Gulf Coast and throughout the Mid-west and Ohio Valley especially depend on the inland and intracoastal
waterways. Texas and Louisiana each ship more than $10 billion worth of cargo annually, while Illinois, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Alabama, and Wash-ington State each ship between $2 billion and $10 billion annually. Another 8 states ship at least $1
billion annually. This system provides an average trans-portation savings of $10.67 per ton over the cost of shipping by alternative modes. This
translates into more than $7 billion annually in transportation savings to the U.S. econ-omy. Future
investment must focus on life-cycle maintenance, system interdepen-dencies, redundancy, security,
and recovery from natural and man-made hazards.
AT: No other nations compare with waterways
Despite success of other nationwide waterway transportation projects the U.S.
remains focused on further study.
Matt Hilburn, May 2007, Associate Editor, Sea Power, Vol. 50 Issue 5, “New Believers,” p. 39, Ebsco Host
Short-sea shipping is not a new phenomenon. Northern Europe and Southeast Asia, in particular, have
well-developed systems that have proven reliable, efficient, cost-effective and environmentally friendly Many systems are
sup –ported by government. The European Union moves approximately 40 percent of all its freight on the water,"Connaughton
testified."The EU Commission has vigorously supported the concept of an integrated marine highway system for over 20 years, and has recently
set aside over 100 million euros ($134 million) in a multiyear program to provide incentives to shift freight from the congested landside modes
to the water. In Octoher2006, the Commission awarded projects totaling 21.7 million euros ($29million) in an effort to divert truck growth
(134,000 truckloads) to the water." Government
investment on this scale has not hap-pened in the U nited S tates,
where the focus seems to tie on further study and raising awareness. In 2005, the G overnment
A ccountability O ffice rec-ommended DoT and MARAD" develop a more thorough understanding of short-sea
shipping issues before defin-ing a federal role involving substantial investment." The study, produced at the
request of the ranking members of the Senate Commerce and House Transportation and Infrastructure Committees, essen-tially recommended
further analysis before the nation makes substantial investment in short-sea shipping. "Our efforts to investigate and promote the idea of shortsea shipping have not required a large expenditure of public monies," Connaughton said. "MARAD has, instead, focused on the development of
a public-private partnership to investigate, educate and recommend pro-posals to ease our growing freight capacity issues.
Inland waterways allow us to compete in terms of military mobility with Europe.
Donald E. Jackson Jr. & John F. Troxell, 3-30-2007, Colonel in the United States Army, economics instructor
at the U. S. Military Academy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, held assignments in the Department
of Army War Plans Division and as a force planner for the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and
Requirements, “Leveraging the Strategic Value of the U.S Inland Waterway System,” USAWC STRATEGY
RESEARCH PROJECT, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA469583
Inland waterways present a possible alternative to overland transport that has been underutilized in
the past. The EU recognizes and relies upon their existing water highways, committing to a more
balanced approach for future transport. The core network links the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg, France,
Germany, and Austria via a myriad of easily accessible rivers and canals, carrying cargo such as heavy materials, bulk
industrial goods, building products, containers, oversized loads, and waste. Inland waterway transport in the EU has
experienced a growth rate of 17% over the past decade. 48 Inland waterways are a strategic asset to
the nation, enabling the U.S. to significantly increase economic output in both domestic and
international markets, and project military power more rapidly and effectively into the 21 st Century. Over the
next 20 years economists estimate that inland navigation will increase by more than 35%. 49
TopShelf XTs: Agricultural Competitiveness
UQ-Econ Low
Consumer Spending & Confidence
The U.S. economy is stalling. Lack of jobs and government inaction is killing consumer
spending and confidence. No sustainable growth now.
HOMAN & CHADRA 5 – 17 – 12 Bloomberg Economics Reporters
Timothy R. Homan and Shobhana Chandra, Confidence Sinks As U.S. Job Market Progress Stalls: Economy,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17/jobless-claims-in-u-s-were-unchanged-at-370-000-last-week.html
Consumer confidence fell last week to the lowest level in almost four months and more people than
forecast filed claims for unemployment benefits, showing a lack of progress in the job market is rattling
Americans. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index dropped in the week ended May 13 to minus 43.6, a level associated with recessions or their aftermaths,
from minus 40.4 in the previous period. Jobless applications were unchanged at 370,000 in the week ended May 12, Labor Department figures showed today in
Washington Diminishing
employment gains, falling stock prices and the prospect of government gridlock
over the budget heading into the November presidential election may continue to hurt household sentiment. The lack of
a sustained rebound in hiring damps the outlook for consumer spending, which accounts for about
70 percent of the world’s largest economy. “A mix of policy questions and some ongoing softness in
employment growth” is weighing on confidence, said Sam Coffin, an economist at UBS Securities LLC in
Stamford, Connecticut. “We’re hearing more and more about fiscal negotiations. Last year that talk seemed to derail confidence, and that’s coming up as a topic
again.” Coffin
and the UBS team, led by Maury Harris, were the most accurate in forecasting the
unemployment rate for the two years through April, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Other reports today
showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly shrank this month and the index of leading indicators dropped in April for the
first time in seven months. Shares Drop The
disappointing data and growing concern over the European debt
crisis sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down for a fifth day. The gauge dropped 1.5 percent to 1,304.86 at the 4 p.m.
close in New York, the lowest closing level since January, amid reports that Moody’s Investors Services was about to downgrade shares of Spanish banks.
Elsewhere today, a report from the National Statistics Institute in Madrid showed Spain’s gross domestic product declined 0.3 percent in the first quarter from the
previous three months, when it fell the same amount, signaling the nation succumbed to its second recession since 2009. Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized
4.1 percent pace in the first quarter, faster than estimated, from the previous three months, data from the Cabinet Office showed. The rate was boosted by spending
on projects to rebuild areas devastated by last year’s earthquake and tsunami. One-Month Drop The
Bloomberg U.S. consumer comfort
index’s 12.2-point decline over the past four weeks has erased almost all of this year’s gains. The gauge
began the year at minus 44.8 and reached a four-year high of minus 31.4 in the week ended April 15. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment gauge
reached a similar four-year high with this month’s preliminary reading, led by gains among upper-income Americans, a report on May 11 showed. The group’s final
reading is due May 25. Readings lower than minus 40 for the Bloomberg index are correlated with “severe economic discontent,” according to Gary Langer,
president of Langer Research Associates LLC in New York, which compiles the index for Bloomberg. The gauge has averaged minus 15.3 since its inception in
December 1985. All three of the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index’s components declined last week, today’s
report showed. The gauge of personal finances fell to minus 12.9, the fourth straight drop and the weakest reading since November, from minus 11.2 in the prior
week. A measure of whether consumers consider it a good or bad time to buy decreased to minus 48.2, a three-month low, from minus 45.8. Americans’ views on
the state of the economy fell to a 10-week low of minus 69.6 from minus 64.2. Customers ‘Struggling’ “I
do not feel like the economy has
come back,” James Reid-Anderson, chairman and chief executive officer of Grand Prairie, Texas-based theme-park operator
Six Flags Entertainment Corp., said during a May 16 investor conference. “Every week there is a different story. One week we’re up. Next week we’re
down, but there isn’t that confidence yet that the economy is back. We’re assuming that our guests might be struggling financially.” Employers added
115,000 workers to payrolls last month, the weakest gain since October, according to Labor Department figures
released May 4. The same report showed the unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent as more Americans left the labor force. The trend in jobless
claims indicates little improvement in job-market conditions since then. The four-week moving average, a less volatile
measure than the weekly figures, fell to 375,000 last week from 379,750. Survey Week Last week included the 12th of the month, which coincides with the period
the Labor Department uses in its survey of employers to calculate monthly payroll growth. The employment report for May will be released on June 1. The four-
An increase in
applications for jobless benefits last month and a drop in consumer expectations about the economy
depressed the index of leading indicators. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months decreased 0.1
week average for this month’s survey week was little changed from the 375,500 during the corresponding period in April.
percent after a 0.3 percent gain in March, the New York-based group said today. “The economy is in a midst of a soft patch, but I don’t think it’s going to be
anything worse than that,” Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “Economic growth this
quarter will come right around where it came in last quarter.” Slower Growth The economy grew at a 2.2 percent annual pace in the first three months of 2012, down
from 3 percent the prior quarter. The
rate of growth from April to June will probably be the same as last quarter,
according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg from May 4 to May 9. A report from
the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today cast doubt on the outlook for manufacturing. The
central bank’s general economic index fell to minus 5.8 this month, the lowest reading since
September, from 8.5 in the previous month. Economists forecast the gauge would rise to 10, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
Readings less than zero signal contraction in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. The report was at odds with other regional
data. Manufacturing in the New York area expanded at a faster pace in May, a report this week from the New York Fed showed. “We’re
in a choppy
and uneven recovery,” said Sean Incremona, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, who had the
lowest estimate in the Bloomberg survey. “The recovery as a whole isn’t gathering any momentum.” Government
gridlock may hold back growth. Washington policy makers remain at a standoff over the debt ceiling after President Barack Obama met with House Speaker John
Boehner yesterday. Their impasse raises the prospect of an election-year showdown on the federal debt.
K2 Econ- ag and jobs
NCGA 3/29
http://www.ncga.com/news-stories/444-despite-challenges-improvements-to-inland-waterwayssystem-remain-crucial/, Despite Challenges, Improvements to Inland Waterways System Remain Crucial
Mar. 29, National Corn Growers Association
“Our inland waterway system plays a crucial role in the nation’s economy, and we must act
now to help our leaders understand that funding improvements is critical to maintaining our
industry’s viability,” said NCGA President Garry Niemeyer. Achieving our goal is not only
important for farmers and shippers, our nation as a whole will benefit from the job creation
and shipping efficiencies this project would generate.” The country’s inland navigation system
plays an even more visible role in the economy also, moving more than a billion tons of
domestic commerce valued at more than $300 billion per year. Yet, investment in the Upper
Mississippi and Illinois Waterways has not kept pace with the needs of the transportation
sector. Designed to last only 50 years, much of the lock system is approaching 80 years old and
signs of deterioration are readily apparent.
Every lock failure = millions wasted
Kruse et al. ‘11
http://www.unitedsoybean.org/wp-content/uploads/Americas_Locks_And_Dams.pdf, AMERICA’S
LOCKS & DAMS: “A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?” FINAL REPORT Prepared for UNITED
SOYBEAN BOARD by C. James Kruse, Director, Center for Ports & Waterways Annie Protopapas,
Associate Research Scientist Texas Transportation Institute The Texas A&M University System College
Station, Texas and Zafarbek Ahmedov, Graduate Research Assistant Bruce McCarl, Professor Ximing Wu,
Associate Professor James Mjelde, Professor Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M
University College Station, Texas December 2011
Four closure durations were modeled at five of the six focus locks (those with agricultural
movements): two weeks, one month, one quarter, and one year. 4 A failure at any one of the
focus locks would cost agricultural producers anywhere between $900,000 and $45 million,
and result in lost revenues to barge companies between $2.2 million and $162.9 million,
depending on duration.
Delays increasing now
Kruse et al. ‘11
http://www.unitedsoybean.org/wp-content/uploads/Americas_Locks_And_Dams.pdf, AMERICA’S
LOCKS & DAMS: “A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR AGRICULTURE?” FINAL REPORT Prepared for UNITED
SOYBEAN BOARD by C. James Kruse, Director, Center for Ports & Waterways Annie Protopapas,
Associate Research Scientist Texas Transportation Institute The Texas A&M University System College
Station, Texas and Zafarbek Ahmedov, Graduate Research Assistant Bruce McCarl, Professor Ximing Wu,
Associate Professor James Mjelde, Professor Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M
University College Station, Texas December 2011
Currently, 54% of the Inland Marine Transportation System’s (IMTS) structures are more than 50
years old and 36% are more than 70 years old. The age and increase in hours of outage are a
concern. On the Ohio River, for example, navigation outages have increased more than 3-fold
since 2000, going from approximately 25,000 hours to 80,000 hours.3 There have been two
recent failures: Markland Lock in 2009 (5 months) and Greenup Lock in 2010 (1 month). Delays
and budget overruns have become so severe that they are causing other projects to lose
funding or be delayed by a number of years (e.g., the Olmsted Locks and Dam Project on the
Ohio River).
Jobs link ext.
Jobs key to sustained growth and recovery
5 – 15 – 12 co-chairs of The Task Force on Jobs Creation. Hindery is also
founder of Jobs First 2012 and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Gerard is international president of
the United Steelworkers and a member of the executive council of the AFL-CIO
[Leo Hindery, Jr. and Leo W. Gerard, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/leo-hindery-jr/job-creation_b_1517730.html]
HINDERY & GERARD
The big immediate opportunity, however, is the pending highway bill and the projected 2.9 million jobs
it would almost immediately create before the summer and fall construction seasons bleed away. This bill is, in fact, such
an obvious massive, immediate job creator that if the Republicans in Congress continue to stall it from passing out of
conference, there can be no better example of just how extremist in their governance they have become Unless the real
unemployment jobs crisis -- with 26.7 million women and men still unemployed in real terms and a
real unemployment rate of 16.6% -- is frontally challenged by pursuing all of the low-hanging jobcreating initiatives -- of which four has now become seven -- it's not possible to anticipate a sustained economic
recovery that fully revitalizes the middle class. But when they are picked and enacted, then the
engines of economic growth will start to turn over and really roar.
Agriculture link ext.
Lock or dam failure would be enormously expensive for ag producers
Mica, ’12 [John L., “Members of the Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment,” April 13, 2012,
http://Republicans.transportation.house.gov/Media/file/112th/Water/Water%20Briefing%20Memo%20%204-1812.pdf]
Had these failures occurred on a system like the Upper Mississipi River, where there are very few auxiliary locks, the impacts would have been
compounded. According to recent studies, a
failure at certain locks on the Upper Mississippi-Illinois Watrway could cost
agricultural producers up to $45 million and barge companies up to $162.9 million depending on the
lock and the length of the outage. A two-week failure at Lock and Dam 20 on the Upper Mississippi
would be estimated to cost $5.1 million to barge company revenues, while a one-year failure would
cost $150.1 million to barge company revenues. The grain industry would lose $2.8 million and $44
million respectively.
US inland waterways are key to international competitiveness by agriculture
exportation.
Ken Casavant, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Washington State University, Pullman, WA.1, , “Inland Waterborne Transportation –
An Industry Under Siege”, November 2000, Agricultural Transportation Challenges of the 21st Century
America's agricultural producers have always been dependent upon transportation. It is transportation that
links the fields of the producer to the tables of the domestic and foreign consumers. Waterborne transportation is one
component of the entire transportation system that provides service to a broad group of
commodities/products. Farm commodities and farm inputs are extensive users of waterborne transportation. In a reciprocal way, the
waterborne transportation industry depends upon agricultural and other resource movements for their economic livelihood . Grains are
particularly dependent upon waterway services, as they access international markets, markets that
take over 50 percent of the U.S. wheat production and an average of 22 percent of the coarse grain
output. Producers of corn, soybeans, and white and soft wheats are particularly dependent upon foreign consumers and barge transportation.
Because much of U.S. agricultural production is at interior locations far from domestic markets and
ports that link our economy to the world, transportation is critical to the competitiveness of the U.S.
economy. By investing in an extensive inland waterway system, the United States has been able to
improve its competitiveness in international markets. These investments have facilitated lower input
costs for U.S. agriculture, provided greater access to international agricultural markets, and
strengthened agricultural commodity prices
Commodity transport link ext.
Locks and dams are key to the commodity transport.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/12078/ 1217742-113.stm]
Pittsburgh's three rivers, an economic engine since Lewis and Clark departed the city for their epic exploration of the West, are flirting with
disaster. The
region's 23 locks and dams, which annually move 33 million tons of coal, petroleum and
other commodities that fuel the local economy, are on the brink of failure, according to the U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers, the federal agency charged with maintaining them. The failure could come at Elizabeth, the locks and dam on the Monongahela
River completed in 1907. The Corps
says there "are significant structural, mechanical and hydraulic
problems" with the locks, including the collapsing roof of the tunnel that carries water used to fill
and empty the lock chambers. "We've had chunks of concrete coming down for many years," said Jim Fisher, acting chief of
operations for the Corps' Pittsburgh district. Or it could come 18 miles farther up the Monongahela at Charleroi, where the
walls of a Depression-era lock sway back and forth each time the lock is filled and emptied. Water inside
the chamber is helping to hold the walls up. If the dam at Elizabeth collapsed and water levels dropped, the
Charleroi lock could tumble into the river, closing the Monongahela. Corps and industry officials said a prolonged outage
would make electricity more expensive, put more heavy trucks on local roads and highways, and
even could affect water supplies for consumers and industry.
Waterways key to construction, fuel oil, and fertilizer transportation.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/12078/ 1217742-113.stm]
While coal accounts for the majority of traffic on Pittsburgh's rivers, barges
construction, fuel oil, fertilizer and other goods.
also move gravel, sand and limestone used in
Competitiveness link ext.
Waterway infrastructure is key to U.S. competitiveness
Scott, ’12 [Doug, “ASCE Tells Congress More Must Be Invested in Inland Waterways,” ASCE News, May 2012,
http://www.asce.org/ascenews/shorttakes.aspx?id=25769808619]
Testifying on April 18 before the U.S. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee’s Subcommittee on Water Resources and
Environment, James A. Rossberg, P.E., M.ASCE, the Society’s managing director of engineering programs, said that efforts by the
administration and Congress to address the
growing investment deficit in waterways infrastructure have largely
been ineffectual because of political considerations that give precedence to deficit reduction and tax
cuts over the badly needed restoration of critical infrastructure. “We can sum up the present situation concisely,”
Rossberg said before the subcommittee chair, Bob Gibbs (R-Ohio), and the ranking minority member, Tim Bishop (D–New York). “These
policy failures at the White House and in Congress threaten the nation’s economic competitiveness
in a global economy. “ASCE’s 2009 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure gave the nation’s inland waterways a grade of D–, an
indication that the system is near failure. Neither [the] president nor Congress has done anything in the years since to improve upon that
extremely dismal assessment by adopting a long-term, systematic approach to improve the performance and condition of our national
waterways.”
Infrastructure key generic
Infrastructure key to sustain economic recovery.
Davidson, 5/20 [Paul, “USA's creaking infrastructure holds back economy,” USA Today, May 20, 2012,
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-05-20/creaking-infrastructure/55096396/1]
As the economy picks up, the nation's creaking infrastructure will increasingly struggle to handle the
load. That will make products more expensive as businesses pay more for shipping or maneuver around
roadblocks, and it will cause the nation to lose exports to other countries — both of which are expected
to hamper the recovery.
Transportation delays increase over all costs
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/12078/ 1217742-113.stm]
With preventive maintenance crimped, barge operators face more frequent and longer delays as
locks break down. On the Ohio River, the number of hours lost annually because of outages has
tripled since 2000 to 80,000 hours, members of the House Committee on Transportation and
Infrastructure were told last fall. "I have never seen the disruptions to traffic we have now," said Martin T. Hettel, the American
Electric Power manager responsible for moving coal on AEP barges to the Columbus, Ohio, utility's power plants. The delays occur even
though the Corps spends millions each year to keep outdated facilities functioning. "That's
just throwing money down a rat
hole," said William Harder, a former navigation manager in the Corps' Great Lakes and Ohio River division who retired last year.
Ag key to economy
Agricultural competitiveness key to strong economy
NCbiofuels 12
(organization which has as its goal the awareness of biofuel and agricultural industries) "Agriculture - The Cornerstone Of Our Old (And New)
Economy." Agriculture - The Cornerstone Of Our Old (And New) Economy. NCbiofuels, 27 June 2012. Web. 28 June 2012.
<http://ncbiofuels.net/biofuels-nc-blog/643-agriculture-the-cornerstone-of-our-old-and-new-economy.html>.
America may not currently be as aware of the economic value of agriculture as we should be, but America is changing. Many of us are quickly
realizing it is not possible to sustain our planet or our economy with "throw away" products and artificially deflated costs. Both the credit and
housing crises and recession of the past few years have made all of us think about our resources differently. These events brought to light the
need for all of us to change, not just for our economy, but also for our planet. How
can we create jobs, increase strategic
security, reduce waste, and sustain our own communities with resources we currently have available
to us? A large part of the answer has been right in front of us all along: by creating new opportunity
through agriculture. Innovating new agricultural industries is key to creating sustainable national
wealth and security. The U.S Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack, wrote recently in the White House Blog about why creating an
advanced biofuels sector in the U.S. is crucial. He said, "I believe in renewable fuel production goals and I believe in the need for improved
energy security, a cleaner environment, better economic opportunity and job creation in rural America." Developing the biofuels industry will
create massive demand for agricultural products (specifically biomass for biofuel production) and that demand will create potentially thousands
of new rural jobs.
Agriculture is the giant on which our economy stands
Robinson 10
Robinson, Elton. (Staff writer for Southwest Farm Press) "Agriculture - the Unseen Economic Giant." Southwest Farm Press. Southwest Farm
Press, 17 Nov. 2010. Web. 28 June 2012. <http://southwestfarmpress.com/management/agriculture-unseen-economic-giant>.
Agriculture is an economic giant providing food, feed, fuel and fiber for so many despite the extremes
of weather, politics and volatile markets. Agriculture is everywhere we look — horses romping in a pasture along
a rural road; our healthy, hardwood forests; all those gleaming, winter-flooded fields giving sustenance to wildlife; and wide,
breathtaking fields of corn, cotton, soybeans, rice and wheat lining our highways.
Agricultural competitiveness key to economy
NASA 06
NASA. (space agency) "SCIENCE SERVING SOCIETY: AGRICULTURAL COMPETITIVENESS."NASA.gov. NASA, May 2006. Web. 27 June 2012.
One of our nation’s most vital needs is a stable and dependable food supply for an ever-increasing
population. The Midwest United States is known as America’s “Breadbasket” because it is home to the vast majority of America’s
productive farmland and is vital to the American economy. Any disruption to the productivity of these lands can have
devastating economic consequences. For example, in the summer of 1988, the Midwest United States
experienced its worst dry spell since the 1930s causing an estimated $40 billion in crop damages. In
contrast, summer 1993 was exceptionally wet, with flooding on the Missouri and Mississippi rivers that wreaked havoc on agricultural lands and
caused extensive crop damage.
Economic growth link ext.
A rise in waterway transportation and revenue from fuel surcharges will restore
economic growth.
IBISWorld research report, “US Inland Waterway Transportation Outlook”, Thursday, June 14, 2012,
http://www.marinelink.com/news/transportation-waterway345487.aspx
With consumers increasing their spending as the economy recovers, and manufacturers likewise
boosting their production, demand for inland water transportation will get a boost. Additionally, rising fuel
costs will lead to operators earning more money from fuel surcharges. However, the industry will experience some turbulence from rail
transport providers, which are often seen as cheaper, faster and more environmentally friendly. For these
reasons, industry research firm IBISWorld has added a report on the Inland Water Transportation industry to its growing industry report
collection. The Inland
Water Transportation industry dipped as the economy sank into recession. Over
the past couple of years, consumers have decreased spending, and manufacturing industries have
decreased production. Consequently, fewer goods have been transported along domestic inland waterways, decreasing revenue. In
2008, the industry dodged a bullet when rising fuel prices caused industry operators to impose fuel surcharges, which increased revenue.
“However, rising revenue from fuel surcharges has not hit the industry's bottom line because fuel purchase costs for operators have increased as
a result of the rising prices,” said IBISWorld industry analyst Lauren Setar. This industry operates in rivers, ports and other bodies of water in
the United States. While
operators provide passenger ferry services, transporting freight commodities
generates the majority of revenue. In 2006 and 2007, demand for coal, petrochemicals and grain was
particularly strong, and worldwide demand for commodities, especially from China, further fueled
revenue growth.
US Trade Up
US Trade increasing- Russia
VOA 12 the official external broadcast institution of the United States federal governmentU.S. - Russia Expand Trade | Editorials |
Editorial." Editorials. N.p., 29 June 2012. Web. 01 July 2012. <http://www.voanews.com/policy/editorials/US---Russia-Expand-Trade160887635.html?c=y>.
At the recent G-20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, the
United States and Russia announced an ambitious agenda to expand
and investment relations. An important step in this direction is Russia’s membership in the World Trade Organization, or
WTO. The Administration is working with the Congress to terminate the application of the Jackson-Vanik Amendment and extend
Permanent Normal Trade Relations to Russia to ensure that the WTO Agreement applies to U.S.-Russia trade. This step will ensure
that American manufacturers, farmers, innovators, creators, service providers and exporters are not placed at a disadvantage
bilateral trade
relative to their foreign competitors in Russia’s growing market. As soon as Russia becomes a Member of the WTO, it will be required to comply
with all of the provisions of the WTO Agreement, as well as specific commitments in its accession protocol. Russia has already taken steps to
implement its commitments by adopting and/or amending its domestic legal regime to reflect the WTO rules and its specific commitments. The
United States looks forward to working with Russian authorities in the rules-based regime of the WTO. The United States welcomes Russia’s
efforts to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Membership would represent another major step in
Russia’s broader integration into international rules-based institutions. The process of joining supports Russia’s efforts to modernize and
diversify its economy, as well as improve its business and investment climate. The level of investment between the United States and Russia
remains below its potential, and the United States supports continued technical discussions on a bilateral
investment treaty that
protections to investors in both countries. A bilateral investment treaty is also designed to facilitate good
governance, the rule of law, and transparency. The United States will also continue to work with its Russian counterparts to
expand innovation between both countries on a government-to-government level and in cooperation with the private
sector. The United States and Russia are committed to working together to expand bilateral trade and investment as a
means to foster mutual economic growth and prosperity.
would provide additional
US Trade High- Sri Lanka
Ministry of Defense and Commerce 12 Sri Lankan news “US- Sri Lanka Relations to New Heights - Ambassador
Wickramasuriya." US- Sri Lanka Relations to New Heights - Ambassador Wickramasuriya. N.p., 1 July 2012. Web. 01 July 2012.
<http://www.defence.lk/new.asp?fname=US_Sri_Lanka_relations_to_new_heights_20120701_01>.
United States closes GSP Worker Rights review of Sri Lanka without any change to Sri Lanka's GSP trade
benefits. United States Trade Representative Ambassador Ron Kirk revealed this afternoon that USTR has closed the Generalized System of
Preferences (GSP) country practice review on worker rights in Sri Lanka without any change to Sri Lanka's GSP trade benefits. Ambassador Kirk
said, "The closure of the GSP country practice review of Sri Lanka was based on the Sri Lankan government's noteworthy efforts over the past
few years to address the worker rights issues outlined in the GSP petition. This significant achievement is a clear testimony to indicate Sri
Lanka's commitment to ensure improved worker rights. US GSP programme allows duty free entry to US market for over 4800 products from
128 developing countries. Duty free access under the US GSP programme remains very vital for Sri Lankan exporters. Sri Lankan s exports have
grown by 22 % in 2011 to US $ 2.1 Billion. During the first three months of 2012, US imports
from Sri Lankan has increased by
nearly 30 % compared to the corresponding period of 2011. The total value of Sri Lankan exports to US under GSP programme
amounted US $ 135 Million in 2011. Ambassador Wickramasuriya said this vital announcement comes at a time when Sri Lanka and
the US have embarked on a journey to further consolidate our multifaceted relationship. He thanked the US officials for their understanding
and cooperation particularly the officials of the office of USTR. Similarly, he acknowledged the contribution made by relevant line Ministries in
Sri Lanka including Ministry of Labour , Industry and Commerce and External Affairs , Department of Commerce and the Board of Investment of
Sri Lanka. Both countries will continue to work very closely under the newly formed Labour Affairs Committee under the Trade and Investment
Framework Agreement between the US and Sri Lanka. Ambassador Wickramasuriya further stated that this welcoming news
will
generate enormous goodwill between the two countries and create new opportunities for trade and investment
especially for US Companies.
US Trade increasing- Business stockpiles
Associated Press 12. "U.S. Trade Deficit Declines as Imports Fall Sharply." The New York Times. The New York Times, 09 June 2012.
Web. 01 July 2012. <http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/09/business/economy/us-trade-imbalance-shrinks.html
Separately, the Commerce
Department said wholesale businesses increased their stockpiles at a faster rate in
April, responding to a strong gain in sales. The Commerce Department said stockpiles grew 0.6 percent at the wholesale level in April,
double the March gain. Sales by wholesale businesses jumped 1.1 percent in April, nearly three times the March sales gain.
Stockpiles at the wholesale level stood at $483.5 billion in April. That’s 25.6 percent above the
postrecession low of $384.9 billion in September 2009. The increase in wholesale inventories was bigger than economists had forecast.
That could signal that inventory growth will pick up and increase economic growth in the April-June
quarter.
US Trade increasing for the next decade
White 12, Ronald D. Contributor to LA times "U.S. Companies Expected to Increase International Trade." Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles
Times, 27 June 2012. Web. 01 July 2012. <http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-international-trade-20120627,0,1769603.story>.
U.S. companies will increase trade activity by 4.7% a year during the next decade as exports increase to
emerging market nations with a growing appetite for foreign goods. That's according to the HSBC Global Connections
Trade Forecast, released this week by HSBC Commercial Banking. The bank predicts the robust growth rate will occur despite
ongoing global economic difficulties, including problems in Europe. The forecast pegs U.S. trade to rise 95% by 2026, a
pace similar to expectations for global trade. U.S. export growth is expected to rise fastest with emerging-market
countries, including Peru at 8.7%, followed by Turkey and Brazil, both of which are expected to see growth of better than
8%. Canada and Mexico, the U.S.’s top export partners, will continue to play an important role in trade flows, the
report said Biopharmaceuticals and telecommunications equipment will be the two fastest growing non-commodity U.S. exports,
growing at 8.6%
Global Market Up
Global Trade Increasing
Market Watch 12 part of the WSJ-Stock info HSBC Global Connections Trade Report: U.S. Trade Outlook Improves Short- and
Longer-Term." Market Watch. N.p., 25 June 2012. Web. 1 July 2012. <http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hsbc-global-connections-tradereport-us-trade-outlook-improves-short-and-longer-term-2012-06-25>.NEW YORK, Jun 25, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- --*** U.S.
trade
volumes to grow by 95% percent by 2026 *** --*** World trade volumes to grow by 98% percent by 2026 *** U.S.
companies are forecast to increase trade activity by 4.7 percent annually during the next decade as export growth rises with emerging market
nations where a shift to consumption is underway, according to a new report released today by HSBC Commercial Banking. The HSBC Global
Connections Trade Forecast, which examines global trade trends during the next five, 10 and 15 years, also finds that U.S. trade growth is
forecast to rise 95 percent by 2026, broadly in line with the global trade forecast during the same period. HSBC's global trade forecast,
produced in association with Delta Economics and covering trade trends occurring in every region of the world, including 20 individual
countries, further reveals: -- Despite ongoing global economic difficulties, notably in Europe, global
trade is forecast to grow at a
robust rate of 4.7 percent annually during the next 15 years -- In next five years, U.S. export growth is
expected to rise fastest with emerging market countries, including Peru at 8.7 percent, followed by Turkey and Brazil,
both of which are expected to see growth of better than 8 percent -- Annual growth rate of U.S. exports to China are forecasted to outpace U.S.
imports from China during next five years –
Global Trade Will Continue to Grow
Market Watch 12 part of the WSJ-Stock info HSBC Global Connections Trade Report: U.S. Trade Outlook Improves Short- and
Longer-Term." Market Watch. N.p., 25 June 2012. Web. 1 July 2012. <http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hsbc-global-connections-tradereport-us-trade-outlook-improves-short-and-longer-term-2012-06-25>.NEW YORK, Jun 25, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- --***
China and Germany are set to leapfrog the United States to become the world's largest importers by
2026 -- Intra-regional trade continues to be an important driver for U.S. companies, with Canada and Mexico, the United States' top two
export partners and two and three for imports, playing a significant role in the nation's trade flows -- Biopharmaceuticals and
telecommunications equipment are forecasted during the next five years as the two fastest growing non-commodity U.S. exports respectively,
growing at 8.6 and 6.7 percent annually In the shorter-term, the companion HSBC Trade Confidence Index (TCI), conducted twice a year for
HSBC /quotes/zigman/207333/quotes/nls/hbc HBC +1.01% by TNS, finds U.S.-based importers and exporters are very confident about their
expected trade volumes during the next six months. The TCI reveals 59 percent of them anticipate an overall increase in trade volumes, up 10
percent from the last TCI released in October 2011. U.S. businesses are also more optimistic about the state of the global economy with 44
percent expecting it to improve by year end, up from only 29 percent that held that same view in the second half of 2011. "Traditional exportdriven economies in 'emerging' markets are becoming more consumer-driven and importing more from high-end developed nation producers
like the United States to fulfill demand," said Steve Bottomley, Senior Executive Vice President, Head of Commercial Banking, HSBC, North
America. "U.S. businesses should not ignore this important shift, and growth driver, but instead position themselves to become beneficiaries of
this opportunity that is expected to help fuel global trade for many years to come." The biggest gains in trade during the next five years are
forecast in Latin America, up 6 percent and Asia, 5.4 percent. U.S. businesses participating in the latest HSBC TCI report seeing this. The latest
TCI found that 29 percent of U.S. businesses view Latin America as providing the greatest opportunity for trade growth in the next six months,
while almost a quarter (23 percent) consider
China the most promising region. Brazil is expected to realize the
fastest annual import growth globally during the next five years at 7.7 percent. Meanwhile, China, despite its
increasing size, is still forecast to see strong annual growth in both imports and exports of 5.1 percent and
4.7 percent through 2016. Sectors expected to drive the greatest trade growth in the next five years are those which correlate to economic
development. The trade forecast finds automobiles, non-crude oil, medicines and printing will be the sectors that dominate world trade during
the next 15 years, and emerging areas are expected to lead that growth. Some examples: -- Brazil is expected to see car
imports rise by more than 13 percent in the next five years -- Chinese imports of cars are expected to rise by nearly 12 percent to 2016 -Imports of medicaments are expected to grow by 5.3 percent and biopharmaceuticals by 6.6 percent, both driven by demand in the emerging
markets and supplied by the United States and Europe -- Asian
and Latin American imports of medicines are expected
to rise by 7 percent -- Latin American imports of biopharmaceuticals by more than 11 percent through
2016 -- The Asia Pacific region is set to grow printing equipment and machinery exports (machines coloring
fabrics, books, magazines, transport vehicles, containers, packaging etc) by 11.4 percent annually through 2016, and imports by 10.6 percent
Global Trade growing- Multiple warrants
Reuters 12UPDATE 1-Japan Exports to US Jump, Trade Deficit Widens." | Reuters. N.p., 19 June 2012. Web. 01 July 2012.
<http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/20/japan-economy-trade-idINL3E8HJ10W20120620>. TOKYO, June 20 (Reuters) - Japan's
exports
rose in May from a year earlier at the fastest pace in almost a year and a half due to solid demand from the
United States, but the trade deficit widened to the third highest level ever as energy imports surged. The 10.0 percent annual rise in
exports in May was more than then median forecast of a 9.3 percent annual rise and faster than a 7.9 percent annual increase in April in an
encouraging sign that demand for Japanese goods can continue to weather global economic turbulence. The trade deficit widened more than
expected as Japan imported more fossil fuel to offset declining use of nuclear power, but economists say the
trade deficit is likely to
shrink in coming months as energy prices are now falling. "Exports to the United States could slow somewhat
but are likely to continue to grow as U.S. consumption is holding firm," said Hiroaki Muto, senior economist at
Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. "China's efforts to support growth are likely to bear fruit later this year, which
will also help Japan's exports. Energy prices are falling, so while there may be some time lag, this will eventually lead to
lower imports and a lower trade deficit." The annual increase in exports was the largest since December 2010,
when exports rose 12.9 percent from the same period a year earlier. The deficit in the trade balance in May widened to 907.3 billion yen
($11.48 billion) against a projected deficit of 561.1 billion yen, Ministry of Finance data showed on Wednesday. In January, Japan recorded its
biggest ever trade deficit of 1.481 trillion yen. Imports rose 9.3 percent in May from a year earlier, against the median forecast for a 2.9 percent
annual increase. Japan's economy grew an annualised 4.7 percent in the first quarter, and economists expect solid private consumption and
rebuilding following last year's disaster on March 11 to sustain growth this year. They forecast the economy will expand 2.3 percent in the fiscal
year ending in March 2013. Political
parties that support a bailout needed to save Greece from bankruptcy won a slim majority in an
election on Sunday, easing concerns that Europe's sovereign debt crisis
WTO predicts US Trade Recovery
Reuters 12UPDATE 1-Japan Exports to US Jump, Trade Deficit Widens." | Reuters. N.p., 19 June 2012. Web. 01 July 2012.
<http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/20/japan-economy-trade-idINL3E8HJ10W20120620>. Exporting activity from industrialized countries
will expand just 2%. The developing world will have a stronger 5.6% bump in trade
It is time to do no harm,” he said. If the economic environment stabilizes – and oil prices don’t continue
their rapid run-up – the WTO predicts that trading will improve, growing 5.6% in 2013. The U.S. will likely
experience a moderate recovery. But the organization’s economists cautioned that all of its forecasts were “difficult to gauge due
to the extraordinary levels of volatility in financial markets and in the broader economy.”
Solves: Ag
Waterways are key to agricultural industry through the transportation of coal, oil,
grain, corn, and soy beans.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/12078/ 1217742-113.stm]
More than 200 locks and related dams move about 550 million tons of freight annually: coal to power
plants, grain from farms to market, fuel oil to New England. More than 20 percent of the coal used to
generate electricity and 30 percent of oil and other petroleum products move by barge. About 90 percent
of the corn and soy beans exported from Mississippi gulf ports gets there by barge.
Mpax-War
Economic competitiveness prevents major power wars – growth differential.
Stephen M. Walt, Spring 2002, professor of international affairs at Harvard, professor of political science at the
University of Chicago, assistant professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton, guest scholar at
Brookings, associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “American Primacy,” Naval War College
Review
A second consequence of U.S. primacy is a decreased danger of great-power rivalry and a higher level of overall international tranquility.
Ironically, those who argue that primacy is no longer important, because the danger of war is slight, overlook the fact that the extent
of American primacy is one of the main reasons why the risk of great-power war is as low as it is. For most of the past four centuries, relations
among the major powers have been intensely competitive, often punctuated by major wars and occasionally by all-out struggles for hegemony.
In the first half of the twentieth century, for example, great-power wars killed over eighty million people. Today, however,
the
dominant position of the U nited S tates places significant limits on the possibility of great-power
competition, for at least two reasons. One reason is that because the U nited S tates is currently so far ahead, other
major powers are not inclined to challenge its dominant position. Not only is there no possibility of a
“hegemonic war” (because there is no potential hegemon to mount a challenge), but the risk of war via miscalculation is
reduced by the overwhelming gap between the U nited S tates and the other major powers. Miscalculation is
more likely to lead to war when the balance of power is fairly even, because in this situation both sides can convince themselves that they might
be able to win. When the balance of power is heavily skewed, however, the leading state does not need to go to war and weaker states dare not
try.
Mpax: Econ Collpase causes war
Global economic crisis causes war---strong statistical support—also causes great
power transitions
Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010,
“Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace:
Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. Political
science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of
interdependent states. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic and national levels. Several notable contributions follow.
First, on the systemic level, Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson’s (1996) work on leadership cycle theory, finding that
rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of pre-eminent power and the
often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. As such, exogenous shocks such as
economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin, 10981) that leads to
uncertainty about power balances, increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fearon, 1995). Alternatively, even a
relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a
rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner, 1999). Seperately, Polllins (1996) also shows that global
economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major, medium, and small powers, although
he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic
level, Copeland’s (1996,2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that ‘future expectation of trade’ is a significant variable in understanding
economic conditions and security behavior of states. He argues that interdependent
states are likely to gain pacific
benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. However, if the
expectation of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood for
conflict increases , as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources . Crises
could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist
moves by interdependent states. Third, others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level.
Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict,
particularly during periods of economic downturn. They write, The linkages between internal and external conflict and
prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour. Moreover,
the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts
self-reinforce each other. (Blomberg & Hess, 2002, p.89). Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of
terrorism (Blomberg, Hess, & Weerapana, 2004), which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. Furthermore,
crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. ‘Diversionary
theory’ suggests that, when facing
unpopularity arising from economic decline, sitting governments have increased incentives to create
a ‘rally round the flag’ effect. Wang (1996), DeRouen (1995), and Blomberg, Hess and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence
showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. Gelpi (1997) Miller (1999) and Kisanganie and Pickering
(2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact that
democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000) has provided
evidence showing that periods
of weak economic performance in the United States, and thus weak presidential popularity, are
statistically linked to an increase in the use of force..
Economic collapse risks extinction.
Austin 09 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow
– American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)
What do these trends mean in the short and medium term? The Great Depression showed how social and global
chaos followed hard on
economic collapse. The mere fact that parliaments across the globe, from America to Japan, are unable to make responsible,
economically sound recovery plans suggests that they do not know what to do and are simply hoping for the least disruption. Equally worrisome
is the adoption of more statist economic programs around the globe, and the concurrent decline of trust in free-market systems. The threat of
instability is a pressing concern. China, until last year the world's fastest growing economy, just reported that 20 million migrant laborers lost
their jobs. Even in the flush times of recent years, China faced upward of 70,000 labor uprisings a year. A sustained downturn
poses
grave and possibly immediate threats to Chinese internal stability. The regime in Beijing may be faced with a choice of
repressing its own people or diverting their energies outward, leading to conflict with China's neighbors. Russia, an oil state completely
dependent on energy sales, has had to put down riots in its Far East as well as in downtown Moscow. Vladimir Putin's rule has been predicated
on squeezing civil liberties while providing economic largesse. If that devil's bargain falls apart, then wide-scale
repression inside
Russia, along with a continuing threatening posture toward Russia's neighbors, is likely. Even apparently stable
societies face increasing risk and the threat of internal or possibly external conflict. As Japan's exports have plummeted by nearly 50%, onethird of the country's prefectures have passed emergency economic stabilization plans. Hundreds of thousands of temporary employees hired
during the first part of this decade are being laid off. Spain's unemployment rate is expected to climb to nearly 20% by the end of 2010; Spanish
unions are already protesting the lack of jobs, and the specter of violence, as occurred in the 1980s, is haunting the country. Meanwhile, in
Greece, workers have already taken to the streets. Europe as a whole will face dangerously increasing tensions between native
citizens and immigrants, largely from poorer Muslim nations, who have increased the labor pool in the past several decades. Spain has absorbed
five million immigrants since 1999, while nearly 9% of Germany's residents have foreign citizenship, including almost 2 million Turks. The
xenophobic labor strikes in the U.K. do not bode well for the rest of Europe. A prolonged global downturn, let alone a collapse,
would
dramatically raise tensions inside these countries. Couple that with possible protectionist legislation in the United States,
unresolved ethnic and territorial disputes in all regions of the globe and a loss of confidence that world leaders actually know
what they are doing. The result may be a series of small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.
MPAX-Ag
Agricultural decline collapses the overall economy.
Kugler 98 (Lane, Columnist, “American Farmers Are Struggling”, Journal of Commerce, 12-31, Lexis)
U.S. agriculture prices have reached lows not seen in 10, 20 or even 30 years, while the costs of living, labor and machinery are at record highs.
If this country continues
to allow its agriculture to sink to Depression-era levels, how can it keep the stock market from
tumbling, too? Think about the stock market's falling to levels of 30 years ago, say around 700, instead of flirting with 9,000. Impossible? In
The only thing missing that was present 70 years ago is a stock-market plunge and massive unemployment.
just over two years, cash grain prices have dropped over 70 percent from the high posted in July 1996. Hog prices also reflect a near-70 percent decline since 1990.
Many things have contributed to this dramatic decline of commodity prices. Some have directly benefited the consumer, like lower petroleum prices that were
passed on at the gas pump. However, this has not been the case with meats and other commodities in 1997 and 1998. Processors and retailers decided they could
increase their margins rather than passing on the savings to the consumer (which would have cleaned up the oversupply). Supplies continue to build, benefiting only
processors and retailers, not consumers. Free markets have been stymied. I am not trying to tell you we are heading for a sequel of the Great Depression. But why is
the greatest production machine in the world, American agriculture, going through such difficult times? Why should a minority, those who produce the majority of
our food, be subjected to cost inflation and price deflation at the same time? U. S. taxpayers coughed up $6 billion dollars this year to help the farmer. Along with
next year's Freedom to Farm payments, the extra cash is helping us through the crisis. Thank you, it is just what we needed: another Band-Aid. Government policy
for the past 60 years has been to intravenously feed farmers the ""antibiotic'' of farm subsidies and price supports. But the wound has never healed. The Freedom to
Farm Act attempts to wean agriculture from subsidies and supports by initiating a ""withdrawal'' process. The problem is, other grain-producing countries around the
world don't see it that way. They continue to subsidize their producers. The livestock producer gets no help from taxpayers. But if these prices continue, it is a pretty
sure bet the banks holding his notes will get bailed out. We can make our products much more affordable to foreign buyers by devaluing the dollar. But, you say,
that will cause inflation. Maybe investors should rethink inflation. Maybe a little inflation is much better than another Depression. If you look at government moneysupply figures, it would appear that Washington may have started to print money (which, in hindsight, could have prevented the Great Depression). I hope this is the
case. The enormous power of the hedge funds that continuously short commodity futures - the pricing mechanism of the world these days - is staggering. If
agriculture dies an economic death, the rest of the economy is sure to follow.
Solvency-Generic
New infrastructure investment is crucial - modern U.S. waterways are key to economic
competitiveness – most efficient method of commerce***
Cornell Martin, 2-21-2011, is president and CEO of the Waterways Council Inc., Journal of Commerce, Vol. 12
Issue 8, “WATERWAYS DESERVE FUNDS,” p. 35, Ebsco Host
THE RELEASE OF
the president's fiscal 2012 budget on Valentine's Day and its historically low funding level
for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Civil Works Program was anything but a message of love. That's not
unexpected in this fiscally conservative environment, but the slashed Civil Works budget is problematic not only for the corps, but
for the nation, overall, as well. Why? America's inland water-ways are a precious natural resource, and
remain the envy of the world because of the "water highway" our expansive waterways system provides for commerce. But too often, our rivers and waterways are out of sight, out of mind. Nonetheless,
modern lock and dam infrastructure is critical to our nation's competitiveness, to the effi-cient
movement of the intermodal supply chain, to environmental pro-tection, to energy efficiency, to the sustainment of
well-paying Ameri-can jobs and to traffic congestion relief. In real numbers, America's inland navigation system
moves more than 600 million tons of freight commodi-ties valued at more than $70 billion each year. This includes about 20
per-cent of the coal burned to generate electricity in utility plants, roughly 22 percent of domestic petroleum products, approximately 60 percent of U.S. grain for export, helping
our nation's farmers and growers to compete internationally at a
fraction of the cost of the other bulk modes. The beneficiaries of the water-ways system are many because rivers
provide stable pools of water for industrial, municipal and agri-cultural use, generate hydropower, provide flood protection, create rec-reational
opportunities, and enhance.
Damage to waterways is collapsing agriculture competitiveness
Farm Futures 11 (June 27, Farm Futures: business and marketing tools for profitable farming, “After
the floods recede, action needed”, http://farmfutures.com/story.aspx/after-the-floods-recede-actionneeded-0-50674)
Record-setting just begins the description for the kind of spring 2011 has been for the nation's inland waterways.
Blown dykes, busted levees and historic flooding along the Mississippi, Missouri and even
in North Dakota has hit the front pages of newspapers across the country. But as the waters
recede, farm groups including the American Soybean Association and the National Grain and Feed Association
are starting to ask tough questions. Who will fix the damage left behind? On Friday ASA and
NGFA, along with other producer groups, processors and input suppliers, alerted the Congressional
Appropriations Committees about the need for added resources to dredge and repai inland
waterways that have been damaged by historic high water levels. Says Steve Wellman, a
Syracuse, Neb., soybean producer and ASA first vice president: "Agricultural producers, processors and exporters
rely on the entire Mississippi River system and share concern about the impact recent floods in the Midwest will
More than 60% of U.S. soybean exports moved to world markets
through the Port of South Louisiana via the Mississippi River and its tributaries." Long an
issue for farm groups, the waterways system is already suffering issues of obsolescence.
Adding insult to injury would be flood-damaged waterways that become impassable after
this spring. The major farm and processor groups point out a modern and efficient inland
waterways transportation system is vital to maintaining U.S. agricultural competitiveness
in the world market. ASA points out that as the U.S. system continues to face delays and
closures attributable to low drafts and crumbling locks and dams, competitors are
increasing expenditures on their own transport infrastructures, thereby eroding the
competitive advantage long enjoyed by the United States. Wellman points out that flooding
have on the river system.
extending from South Dakota through Iowa and Nebraska will require the Army Corps of Engineers to need funds
commerce is already impacted by the high currents
accumulating silt on the river bottoms, and river pilots continue to impose draft
restrictions, one-way traffic and daytime only hours as a result of the current situation. The
for repairs due to these challenges. He adds that
Mississippi river The river and its tributaries comprise more than 14,000 miles of navigable waterways—making it a
natural distribution system that covers a wide stretch of the continental United States. About 413 million tons of
domestic and international cargo is moved annually on the Lower Mississippi River. Louisiana ports exported about
$13.4 billion worth of agricultural products in 2009, including grain harvested in the Midwest and shipped via barge
for export to world markets.
Topshelf XT: Trade
Advantage__: Trade
Global trade growth is inevitable – it’s only a question if the U.S. is engaged
IWR 12 (US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, June 20, “U.S. Port and Inland
Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post-Panamax Vessels”, pg. 14-15)
Despite the recent worldwide recession, the expected general trend for international trade is one of
continued growth as the world’s population and standard of living grow. As international trade
expands, the number of post-Panamax vessels is expected to increase. The Nation’s ability to attract
these vessels and allow efficient use of their capacity is the key to realizing the transportation cost
savings these vessels represent. For example, the Corps investigation of the Port of Savannah indicates a $652 million dollar
investment where the benefits far exceed the cost. Growth is expected in overall trade and deployment of postPanamax vessels to U.S. ports is certain for multiple trade routes. The expansion of the Panama Canal,
currently underway, will accelerate the timing of the deployment of these vessels to more U.S. ports.
There is, however, uncertainty in the port specific details: at which ports they will call; when these vessels will
arrive in large numbers; how deep these vessels will draft arriving and departing; and the supporting infrastructure needed
(channel depth and width, number and sizes of cranes, size of available container storage area). Despite the lack of port specific
certainty, the Nation can move forward identifying individual projects using established risk informed
decision making methods. The Panama Canal expansion is scheduled to be completed in 2014 and will
double its existing capacity. The new locks will be able to pass vessels large enough to carry three
times the volume of cargo carried by vessels today. The availability of larger, more efficient vessels passing though the new
locks on the canal is expected to potentially have at least three major market effects. (1) Currently, there is significant freight shipped to the
eastern half of the United States over the intermodal land bridge formed by the rail connections to West Coast ports. The potential for reduced
cost of the water route through the canal may cause freight traffic to shift from West Coast to East Coast ports. (2) To
take full
advantage of the very largest vessels that will be able to fit through the expanded canal but may be
too large to call at most U.S. ports, a transshipment service in the Caribbean or a large U.S. port may
develop. The largest vessels would unload containers at the transshipment hub for reloading on
smaller feeder vessels for delivery to ports with less channel capacity. (3) On the export side the ability
to employ large bulk vessels is expected to significantly lower the delivery cost of U.S. agricultural
exports to Asia and other foreign markets. This could have a significant impact on both the total
quantity of U.S. agricultural exports and commodities moving down the Mississippi River for export at
New Orleans. There is uncertainty in the port specific details of when such vessels will arrive in large number, which ports they will call,
how deep vessels calling will draft and, consequently, how deep navigation channels must be. Over time these uncertainties will reduce as
experience replaces expectation. Even
in the face of this uncertainty, individual ports are actively engaged in
port expansions and studies to deepen and widen Federal access channels. We can predict that in the June 20,
2012U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS XV INSTITUTE FOR WATER RESOURCES absence of transshipment centers post-Panamax vessels will call
in large numbers, they will call at most major ports and their sailing drafts will become known. Our
challenge is to invest in
capacity expansion in the right places at the right time consistent with industry needs. Port capacity
depends upon channel depths, channel widths, turning basin size, sufficient bridge heights, and port
support structures such as dock and crane capacity to offload and onload goods. The deepest channel
requirements are likely to be driven by “weight trade” services. Vessels can be filled to their weight capacity or their volume capacity. Vessels
loaded to their weight capacity sail at their maximum design draft; they sit deeper in the water. For volume trade routes, channel width and
turning basin size may be of greater importance than additional channel depth at some ports, as vessels loaded to their volume capacity often
sail at significantly less than their design draft. The Asian export trade is considered a “cube trade” (i.e. volume trade). Careful consideration is
needed when determining channel depth requirements at U.S. ports for this trade route.
As trade increases, the U.S. need the waterways to accommodate
U.S. Army Corp of Engineers 6/20
Institute for water resources, “U.S. Port and Waterway Modernization: Preparing for post-Panamax vessels.” US Army Corp of Engineers.
Written June 20th, 2012. Accessed June 27, 2012.
http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/docs/portswaterways/rpt/June_20_U.S._Port_and_Inland_Waterways_Preparing_for_Post_Panamax_Vessels.
pdf
Congress directed the USACE Institute for Water Resources to submit to the Senate and House committees on appropriations a “report on
how the Congress should address the critical need for additional port and inland waterways modernization to accommodate postPanamax vessels.” This report fulfills that request. This report identifies capacity maintenance and expansion issues associated with the
deployment of post-Panamax vessels to trade routes serving U.S. ports. This identification has been accomplished through an evaluation
of the future demand for capacity in terms of freight forecasts and vessel size expectations and an evaluation of the current capacity of
the Nation’s inland waterways and coastal ports. Despite
the recent worldwide recession, the expected general
trend for international trade is one of continued growth as the world’s population and standard of
living grow. As international trade expands, the number of post-Panamax vessels is expected to
increase. The Nation’s ability to attract these vessels and allow efficient use of their capacity is the
key to realizing the transportation cost savings these vessels represent. For example, the Corps
investigation of the Port of Savannah indicates a $652 million dollar investment where the
benefits far exceed the cost. Growth is expected in overall trade and deployment of post-Panamax
vessels to U.S. ports is certain for multiple trade routes. The expansion of the Panama Canal ,
currently underway, will accelerate the timing of the deployment of these vessels to more U.S. ports. There is,
however, uncertainty in the port specific details: at which ports they will call; when these vessels will arrive in large numbers; how deep
these vessels will draft arriving and departing; and the supporting infrastructure needed (channel depth and width, number and sizes of
cranes, size of available container storage area). Despite the lack of port specific certainty, the Nation can move forward identifying
individual projects using established risk informed decision making methods. The Panama Canal expansion is scheduled to be completed
in 2014 and will double its existing capacity. The new locks will be able to pass vessels large enough to carry three times the volume of
cargo carried by vessels today. The
availability of larger, more efficient vessels passing though the new locks on the
canal is expected to potentially have at least three major market effects. (1) Currently, there is significant freight
shipped to the eastern half of the United States over the intermodal land bridge formed by the rail connections to West Coast ports. The
potential for reduced cost of the water route through the canal may cause freight traffic to shift
from West Coast to East Coast ports. (2) To take full advantage of the very largest vessels that will be able to fit through the
expanded canal but may be too large to call at most U.S. ports, a transshipment service in the Caribbean or a large U.S. port may develop.
The largest vessels would unload containers at the transshipment hub for reloading on smaller
feeder vessels for delivery to ports with less channel capacity. (3) On the export side the ability to
employ large bulk vessels is expected to significantly lower the delivery cost of U.S. agricultural
exports to Asia and other foreign markets. This could have a significant impact on both the total
quantity of U.S. agricultural exports and commodities moving down the Mississippi River for export at New Orleans.
There is uncertainty in the port specific details of when such vessels will arrive in large number, which ports they will call, how deep
vessels calling will draft and, consequently, how deep navigation channels must be. Over
time these uncertainties will
reduce as experience replaces expectation. Even in the face of this uncertainty, individual ports
are actively engaged in port expansions and studies to deepen and widen Federal access channels.
We can predict that in the absence of transshipment centers post-Panamax vessels will call in
large numbers, they will call at most major ports and their sailing drafts will become known. Our
challenge is to invest in capacity expansion in the right places at the right time consistent with
industry needs. Port capacity depends upon channel depths, channel widths, turning basin size,
sufficient bridge heights, and port support structures such as dock and crane capacity to offload
and onload goods. The deepest channel requirements are likely to be driven by “weight trade”
services. Vessels can be filled to their weight capacity or their volume capacity. Vessels loaded to their weight capacity sail at their
maximum design draft; they sit deeper in the water. For volume trade routes, channel width and turning basin size may be of greater
importance than additional channel depth at some ports, as vessels loaded to their volume capacity often sail at significantly less than
their design draft. The Asian export trade is considered a “cube trade” (i.e. volume trade). Careful consideration is needed when
determining channel depth requirements at U.S. ports for this trade route.
Inland waterways key to boosting exports.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
Industry officials say more reliable locks and dams could boost U.S. exports, a critical element of
President Barack Obama's economic recovery plan. They point to an expansion of the Panama Canal that will allow more and
bigger ships to pass through the canal, which links the Caribbean Sea with the Pacific Ocean. The Panama project could benefit
American coal and grain producers eyeing booming markets in Asia if they can efficiently ship
products down the Ohio and Mississippi rivers to New Orleans for export.
Trade prevents extinction.
Pazner 08 (Michael J., Faculty – New York Institute of Finance, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future
from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138)
The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring about ever more heated arguments and dangerous confrontations
over shared sources of oil, gas, and other key commodities as well as factors of production that must, out of necessity, be acquired from lessthan-friendly nations. Whether involving raw materials used in strategic industries or basic necessities such as food, water, and energy, efforts to
secure adequate supplies will take increasing precedence in a world where demand seems constantly out of kilter with supply. Disputes over the
misuse, overuse, and pollution of the environment and natural resources will become more commonplace. Around the world, such tensions
will give rise to full-scale military encounters, often with minimal provocation. In some instances, economic conditions will
serve as a convenient pretext for conflicts that stem from cultural and religious differences. Alternatively, nations may look to divert
attention away from domestic problems by channeling frustration and populist sentiment toward other countries and cultures.
Enabled by cheap technology and the waning threat of American retribution, terrorist groups will likely boost the frequency
and scale of their horrifying attacks, bringing the threat of random violence to a whole new level. Turbulent conditions will encourage
aggressive saber rattling and interdictions by rogue nations running amok. Age-old clashes will also take on a new, more heated sense of
urgency. China
will likely assume an increasingly belligerent posture toward Taiwan, while Iran may embark
on overt colonization of its neighbors in the Mideast. Israel, for its part, may look to draw a dwindling list of allies from around the
world into a growing number of conflicts. Some observers, like John Mearsheimer, a political scientists at the University of Chicago, have even
speculated that an “intense confrontation” between the United States and China is “inevitable” at some point. More than a few disputes will turn
out to be almost wholly ideological. Growing cultural and religious differences will be transformed from wars of words to battles soaked in
blood. Long-simmering resentments could also degenerate quickly, spurring the basest of human instincts and triggering genocidal acts.
Terrorists employing biological
or nuclear weapons will vie with conventional forces using jets, cruise missiles, and bunkerbusting bombs to cause widespread destruction. Many will interpret stepped-up conflicts between Muslims and Western societies
as the beginnings of a new world war.
Links:
Link: Waterways Key to trade
Link: Key to trade
Inland waterways are key to keep the US competitive in the global market
U.S. Army Core of Engineers 12
Charged with U.S. waterways. “US Port and Inland Waterways Modernization Strategy: Options for the Future.” Institutes for Water Resources.
Written April 12th, 2012. Accessed June 26, 2012. https://mailattachment.googleusercontent.com/attachment/u/0/?ui=2&ik=3ba4a2a5e4&view=att&th=1382acc95893ff17&attid=0.1&disp=inline&realattid
=f_h3xin7q80&safe=1&zw&saduie=AG9B_P95T3A0gyqnDYT-zv5lFkju&sadet=1340764597077&sads=JUt-3tnK78wds-uaCbzwSetG6EQ
The inland waterways comprise rivers, waterways, canals, and the locks and dams that provide some 12,000 miles of
commercially navigable waters. The flotillas of towboats and barges that operate on this system carry
approximately 15 percent of the nation’s domestic freight. Figure 22 shows how the inland waterways link the
heartland of the U.S. to the coast. The biggest role of inland waterways in the export market has been in the
global trade for grains and coal. U.S. producers of these commodities face stiff global competition.
Investments in competing world ports are tapping production regions that were previously expensive to reach or nearly inaccessible.
Examples include coal mines in Mongolia, deep water ports in Brazil for the export of soybeans, and rail lines from eastern coalfields in
Colombia to the Pacific Ocean. Shallow
draft river systems handled 523 million short tons of cargo in 2009,
while coastal systems handled an additional 168 million short tons. Including lake, intraport and intraterritorial
movements, the system moved some 857 million short tons—actually a decrease June 20, 2012U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS 31 INSTITUTE FOR WATER RESOURCES in activity due to the severe recession during that year. The system typically
handles more than a billion tons per year. The cargoes are mostly bulk commodities and raw materials such
as coal (28% of the tonnage), petroleum (37%), grain and farm products (10%), chemicals (5%), aggregates, steel, and
fertilizer (Figure 23). The Mississippi River System is the primary conduit for cargoes from the nation’s
Midwest grain belt to Gulf ports. Figure 24 shows traffic on the Mississippi has been declining over the last decade. U.S.
government export forecasts indicate near term growth in grain and coal exports that level off over the
next 20 years 17 . These forecasts indicate that the U.S. will remain the single largest participant in
the global grain trade, while U.S. coal producers will continue to hold a marginal position in the
global market. Grain producer forecasts see most of their exports being shipped from the Center
Gulf region around New Orleans, with about one-half of the increase in grain exports transiting
the Panama Canal
Link: Key to trade with Asia
Inland waterways key to trade with Asia
U.S. Army Core of Engineers 12
Charged with U.S. waterways. “US Port and Inland Waterways Modernization Strategy: Options for the Future.” Institutes for Water Resources.
Written April 12th, 2012. Accessed June 26, 2012. https://mailattachment.googleusercontent.com/attachment/u/0/?ui=2&ik=3ba4a2a5e4&view=att&th=1382acc95893ff17&attid=0.1&disp=inline&realattid
=f_h3xin7q80&safe=1&zw&saduie=AG9B_P95T3A0gyqnDYT-zv5lFkju&sadet=1340764597077&sads=JUt-3tnK78wds-uaCbzwSetG6EQ
Inland waterways, such as the Mississippi, Columbia-Snake and Ohio River systems, have the
highest impact on grains, oilseeds and coal exports. Alternatively, northeast Asia is the largest export
trading partner for West Coast ports. Ocean transportation rates determine the geographic break
point between making the long, costly haul by rail from the Midwest to the West Coast versus the
relatively inexpensive barge haul to New Orleans along the Mississippi River System to make the
lengthy ocean voyage to Northeast Asia. Oceangoing containership rates are generally stable due to negotiated rates. Bulk carrier
rates are more susceptible to swings in demand, like the sudden rise caused by the growing
Chinese demand for ores, coal and grain. In recent years, post-Panamax vessels have started to
call at U.S. ports. It is believed that the Panama Canal expansion will increase the opportunities
for trade as it will enable carriers to deploy larger, post-Panamax vessels to its Asia-East Coast and
Asia-Gulf services ports. Previously large vessel class trade with Asian markets occurred mainly at
West Coast ports. Callout: “Multi-modal” vs “Intermodal” Multi-modal refers to a multi-faceted transportation system, such as the
one in the U.S. that encompasses deep-water ports, inland waterways, railways and highways in which freight carriers typically ship using
at least two different methods of transportation but are liable from start to finish. Intermodal, on the other hand, refers to the ability to
move containerized cargoes relatively seamlessly using a multi-modal transportation system; for example, moving goods in the same
container from a ship to a truck or rail car. U.S. Port Capacities U.S. ports have been seeking ways to accommodate larger vessels as well
as provide space for an anticipated increase in containers.
Physical limitations such as channel depth, channel
width, size and number of cranes for unloading and onloading, storage yard space, berthing
facilities, turning basin dimensions and landside productivity (i.e., container turnover rates) determine how
much throughput a port can potentially handle in a given year.
I/L: Plan leads to trade growth
Waterways key to trade allow for exports – coal and grain
IWR 12 (US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, June 20, “U.S. Port and Inland
Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post-Panamax Vessels”, pg. 30-32)
The inland waterways comprise rivers, waterways, canals, and the locks and dams that provide some
12,000 miles of commercially navigable waters. The flotillas of towboats and barges that operate on
this system carry approximately 15 percent of the nation’s domestic freight. Figure 22 shows how the inland
waterways link the heartland of the U.S. to the coast. Source: USACE Institute for Water Resources Figure 22: The Inland
Waterway Connection: Linking the Heartland to the Coasts The biggest role of inland waterways in the export market
has been in the global trade for grains and coal. U.S. producers of these commodities face stiff global
competition. Investments in competing world ports are tapping production regions that were
previously expensive to reach or nearly inaccessible. Examples include coal mines in Mongolia, deep water ports in Brazil
for the export of soybeans, and rail lines from eastern coalfields in Colombia to the Pacific Ocean. Shallow draft river systems handled 523
million short tons of cargo in 2009, while coastal systems handled an additional 168 million short tons. Including lake, intraport and
intraterritorial movements, the system moved some 857 million short tons—actually a decrease June 20, 2012U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
31 INSTITUTE FOR WATER RESOURCES in activity due to the severe recession during that year. The
system typically handles more
than a billion tons per year. The cargoes are mostly bulk commodities and raw materials such as coal (28%
of the tonnage), petroleum (37%), grain and farm products (10%), chemicals (5%), aggregates, steel, and fertilizer (Figure 23). The Mississippi
River System is the primary conduit for cargoes from the nation’s Midwest grain belt to Gulf ports. Figure 24 shows traffic on the Mississippi has
been declining over the last decade. U.S. government export forecasts indicate near term growth in grain and coal exports that level off over
the next 20 years 17 . These forecasts
indicate that the U.S. will remain the single largest participant in the
global grain trade, while U.S. coal producers will continue to hold a marginal position in the global
market. Grain producer forecasts see most of their exports being shipped from the Center Gulf region around New Orleans, with about onehalf of the increase in grain exports transiting the Panama Canal 18 .
Improvement empirically leads to trade growth
U.S. Army Core of Engineers 12
Charged with U.S. waterways. “US Port and Inland Waterways Modernization Strategy: Options for the Future.” Institutes for Water Resources.
Written April 12th, 2012. Accessed June 26, 2012. https://mailattachment.googleusercontent.com/attachment/u/0/?ui=2&ik=3ba4a2a5e4&view=att&th=1382acc95893ff17&attid=0.1&disp=inline&realattid
=f_h3xin7q80&safe=1&zw&saduie=AG9B_P95T3A0gyqnDYT-zv5lFkju&sadet=1340764597077&sads=JUt-3tnK78wds-uaCbzwSetG6EQ
New, large
vessels are typically deployed on the longest and largest trade service – Asia to Northern
Europe. The “smaller” vessels on that service are forced to re-deploy to the next most efficient service
for that vessel size. This cascading continues until the most marginal vessels in the fleet are forced
to be scrapped. This cascading typically increases average vessel size for each trade service,
placing demands on the port infrastructure to support larger capacity vessels. For U.S. ports to be
ready to take advantage of post-Panamax vessel opportunities, major ports not only need to be
“post-Panamax ready,” but second tier ports need to be “cascade ready” to take advantage of
larger vessels that begin to service their trade. For a port to be considered “post-Panamax ready,”
in addition to dock and crane capacity a channel depth of about 50 feet is needed with allowances
for tide. U.S. West Coast ports at Seattle, Oakland, Los Angeles and Long Beach all have 50-foot channels. Northeastern U.S. ports at
Norfolk, Baltimore and New York have or will soon have 50-foot channels. Only along the Southeast U.S. and Gulf
Coasts is there a dearth of ports with 50-foot channel depths. This is the area of the country with
the fastest forecasted population and trade growth.
Improved waterways are a prerequisite to export increase
WJW 10
Waterways Journal Weekly, the news journal of record for the towing and barge industry on the inland waterways of the United States.
“Improved exports would boost economies, waterway.” Waterways Journal Weekly. Written September 27th, 2010. Accessed June 27, 2012.
http://www.waterwaysjournal.net/editorial092710.htm
Increased exports would increase production and employment and ultimately increase the need
for transportation services. This also would include expanding container-on-barge service and
increased movements to the Gulf. Moving goods by barge reduces the number of trucks and trains
required to move cargo. This in turn reduces polluting emissions and creates safer driving conditions on
our roadways. It also saves fuel. According to MarAd, the $3.34 million granted to the Mississippi
Department of Transportation for the Cross Gulf Container Expansion Project will “help modify two
barges and purchase equipment that will result in diesel fuel savings of nearly 70,000 gallons per
one-way trip, 2.7 million gallons each year and save 18 million miles annually.” A Virginia Port
Authority project, which is already eliminating 6,000 trucks from local highways “will remove gridlock from
some of the 130,000 trucks traveling between the Hampton Roads container terminals and the rail terminals.”
The Tenn-Tom project will eliminate more than 4,400 truck trips annually. To reach President Obama’s
goal of doubling U.S. exports in five years, the government is launching the National Export
Initiative designed “to help farmers and small businesses increase their exports, and reform
export controls consistent with national security.” The State Department reported in March, “American
companies exported $1.57 trillion in goods and services in 2009. Exports made up 11 percent of our
economic output and supported more than 10 million jobs. Export-related manufacturing jobs
pay, on average, 15 percent more than the average wage.” One component of the NEI is “global
stated
rebalancing and reducing barriers to trade.” U.S. officials are to ensure that trade agreements are enforced.
The program will also help educate companies about export opportunities; expand Export-Import Bank credit
by $10 billion over the next two years; and lists government resources. Howard F. Rosen of The Peterson
Institute for International Economics told the Senate Finance Committee this month that only 4 percent of
U.S. companies export; just 500 companies account for 60 percent of all U.S. exports; 58 percent of
exporting companies trade with only one country; exporting firms produce twice as much and employ
twice as many workers as non-exporting companies; and, among other things, that since 2000, the U.S.
net debtor position has been increasing at a rate of 23 percent per year, which is more than four times the
annual growth of the U.S. economy. We believe the U.S. should not always get the short end of the stick when
making trade agreements. The United States reported a balance of trade deficit equivalent to $42.8 billion in
July. So the time is ripe for the export initiative.
Inland waterways key to global connections, economics, and trade – but may be in
trouble
IWR 12 (US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, June 20, “U.S. Port and Inland
Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post-Panamax Vessels”, pg. 30-32)
Inland waterways in the U.S. are the most advanced and extensive in the world, greatly aiding in the
economic development of vast expanses of interior North America and conferring benefits to U.S. consumers of
electricity, agricultural products, construction materials, petroleum products and steel – nearly
everyone. The inland waterways complement a web of highways and rail lines to form a national multimodal freight transportation system – an SSengineering and logistical marvel built, redesigned, improved and expanded
throughout the Nation’s history. As a national freight network, it efficiently serves the largest and the smallest communities in the U.S. from
coast to coast and allows goods produced far from ocean ports to reach and compete in global markets.
Like any other piece of infrastructure, the freight network goes largely unnoticed until it becomes
unreliable or is no longer there. The flexibility of the U.S. freight network has allowed each mode to cover for the other during
service interruptions. Many segments of the freight community are concerned that this capability is largely
played out just at a time when new opportunities are opening in the global market place.
Inefficiencies in water systems damages trade and markets
IWR 12 (US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, June 20, “U.S. Port and Inland
Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post-Panamax Vessels”, pg. 13)
Transportation Infrastructure and Global Trade Global trade is encouraged by trade policies that act to remove barriers and
protections for domestic producers. Seaborne trade linking continental land masses (e.g., Asia and North America)
benefits from continuing advances in oceangoing vessel efficiencies and supporting infrastructure. In
the U.S., this infrastructure includes port facilities, port channels, ocean-route canals and connecting
channels, highway and rail connections to ports, and overland and waterway feeder systems and line routes. Any
inefficiencies in this transportation system act as a damper on U.S. exporters’ abilities to realize the
full potential of the export market and the vessels engaged in that trade.
I/L: Key to econ
Waterways are the keystone of the U.S. economy
U.S. Army Corp of Engineers 6/20
Institute for water resources, “U.S. Port and Waterway Modernization: Preparing for post-Panamax vessels.” US Army Corp of Engineers.
Written June 20th, 2012. Accessed June 27, 2012.
http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/docs/portswaterways/rpt/June_20_U.S._Port_and_Inland_Waterways_Preparing_for_Post_Panamax_Vessels.
pdf
The health of the
U.S. economy depends, in part, upon the vitality and expansion of international trade.
International trade depends upon the Nation’s navigation infrastructure, which serves as a conduit for
transportation, trade, and tourism and connects us to the global community. Marine transportation is one of the most
efficient, effective, safe and environmentally sound ways to transport people and goods. It is a
keystone of the U.S. economy. Ninety-five percent of our international trade moves through the
Nation’s ports. 1 Cargo carriers, seeking to service this global trade more efficiently and lower
costs, are commissioning the building of ever larger ships, known as post-Panamax vessels. These
vessels are currently calling at U.S. ports and are expected to call in increasing number. The
completion of the Panama Canal in 2014 will influence the timing of their arrival at certain ports. However, post-Panamax vessels
will dominate world trade and call at U.S. ports regardless of the Panama Canal expansion as they
are expected to represent 62 percent of total container ship capacity by 2030. How the Nation invests in
the maintenance and modernization of its navigation infrastructure presents financial challenges to be met and economic opportunities to
be seized. Sustaining a competitive U.S. navigation system that can enhance economic opportunities for future generations without
significant harm to the environment will require a coordinated effort between government, industry and other stakeholders.
Key to competitiveness
Inland waterway maintenance is key to global market competitiveness
IWR 12 (US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, June 20, “U.S. Port and Inland
Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post-Panamax Vessels”, pg. 16)
To remain competitive in a changing global trade market, the U.S. would need to continue making the
justified investments necessary to maintain and improve its navigation transportation infrastructure
where it is appropriate and efficient to do so. Understanding the current funding challenges and
making long‐term plans for operations and maintenance (O&M) and justified investments are critical
to developing an effective vision for a competitive navigation system. USACE Civil Works appropriations to address
waterside infrastructure have averaged about $1.5 to $2 billion per year for the last decade. These expenditures have been used to maintain,
construct and improve the most highly justified inland and coastal navigation infrastructure projects, and reflect the nation’s most efficient
navigation investment strategy. To accommodate
expected increase in agricultural exports through the Gulf,
the current inland waterways must be adequately maintained through maintenance dredging and
justified major rehabilitation. USACE currently has 17 active studies investigating possible port improvements, most associated with
the desire to be post‐Panamax ready. One such study at the Port of Savannah is nearing completion and indicates an economically justified
project that will cost about $652 million. It is likely that other studies will also show economically justified projects, either to become "post‐
Panamax ready" or "cascade ready." The preliminary estimate to expand some ports along these two coasts was about $3‐$5 billion. Specific
investments in ports must be individually evaluated for their timing and economic and environmental
merits.
Ports and inland waterways key to trade
Marine transportation is environmentally safe, the keystone of the economy, and an
outlet for trade
IWR 12 (US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, June 20, “U.S. Port and Inland
Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post-Panamax Vessels”, pg. 13)
The health of the U.S. economy depends, in part, upon the vitality and expansion of international trade.
International trade depends upon the Nation’s navigation infrastructure, which serves as a conduit for
transportation, trade, and tourism and connects us to the global community. Marine transportation is
one of the most efficient, effective, safe and environmentally sound ways to transport people and
goods. It is a keystone of the U.S. economy. Ninety-five percent of our international trade moves
through the Nation’s ports. 1 Cargo carriers, seeking to service this global trade more efficiently and lower costs, are commissioning
the building of ever larger ships, known as post-Panamax vessels. These vessels are currently calling at U.S. ports and are expected to call in
increasing number. The completion of the Panama Canal in 2014 will influence the timing of their arrival at certain ports. However, postPanamax vessels will dominate world trade and call at U.S. ports regardless of the Panama Canal expansion as they are expected to represent
62 percent of total container ship capacity by 2030. How
the Nation invests in the maintenance and modernization of
its navigation infrastructure presents financial challenges to be met and economic opportunities to be seized.
Sustaining a competitive U.S. navigation system that can enhance economic opportunities for future generations without significant harm to
the environment will require a coordinated effort between government, industry and other stakeholders.
Sea trade K to exports
Sea trade is not zero sum
IWR 12 (US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, June 20, “U.S. Port and Inland
Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post-Panamax Vessels”, pg. 21)
Ports could benefit from increased freight moving through them. As noted, reduced costs for an all‐water route from
Asia to the East Coast could cause a shift of some market share from the West Coast ports to the East Coast. However, given the
expected overall increase in trade, it is not a zero sum game and it is possible that even if West Coast
ports were to lose some market share, they will still see an increase in cargo moving through their
ports. Moreover, West Coast ports and their rail partners are investing heavily to increase the capacity and efficiency of the intermodal land
bridge to ensure it remains competitive and retains market share. Transshipment might offer some cost savings to cargo headed for ports that
are not post‐ Panamax ready. However, transshipment hubs add time and extra handling, costs that may exceed the benefits of using a larger
vessel. The opportunities for reduced costs available to U.S. agricultural exporters through the use of larger bulk carriers are also available to
their competitors in international markets.
Sea trade is not zero sum and plan increases exports
IWR 12 (US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, June 20, “U.S. Port and Inland
Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post-Panamax Vessels”, pg. 22)
World trade and U.S. trade is
-Panamax size vessels currently call at U.S. ports and will dominate the
world fleet in th
These vessels will call in increasing numbers at U.S. ports that can accommodate
them
there may be opportunities for economically justified port expansion projects
to accommodate post-Panamax vessels. o This is indicated by an evaluation of population growth
trends, trade forecasts and an examination of the current port capacities. o Investment opportunities
using post-Panamax size vessels to ship agricultural products to Asia, through the Panama Canal may lead to an
increase in grain traffic on the Mississippi River for export at Gulf ports. o An analysis indicated the current Mississippi River capacity is
adequate to meet potential demand if the waterways serving the agricultural export market are maintained. o A
-Panamax vessels
and the expansion of the Panama Canal, individual investment opportunities for port expansion can be identified using established decision
making under uncertainty techniques. Adaptive management techniques can also be used to address uncertainty issues. Preliminary estimates
indicate the total investment opportunities may be in the $3-
Environmental mitigation costs associated
primary challenge with the current process to deliver navigation improvements is to ensure adequate
and timely funding to take advantage of potential opportunities. o A notional list of financing options is presented to
initiate discussion of possible paths to meet this challenge—it is anticipated that a variety of options may be desirable, and in all cases
individual project characteristics, including its economic merits, would need to be considered in selecting the optimal financing mechanisms.
Waterways key to trade – grains, oil seeds, and coal
IWR 12 (US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, June 20, “U.S. Port and Inland
Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post-Panamax Vessels”, pg. 20)
The U.S. multi-modal freight transportation system is comprised of deep-water ports, inland waterways, railways and highways.
They all play a role in the movement of goods domestically and internationally. Inland waterways, such
as the Mississippi, ColumbiaSnake and Ohio River systems, have the highest impact on grains, oilseeds
and coal exports. Alternatively, northeast Asia is the largest export trading partner for West Coast ports. Ocean transportation
overland rail rates determine the geographic break point between making the haul by rail from the Midwest to the West Coast versus a barge
haul to New Orleans along the Mississippi River System to make the lengthy ocean voyage to Northeast Asia. Oceangoing
containership rates are generally stable due to negotiated rates. Bulk carrier rates are more
susceptible to swings in demand, like the sudden rise caused by the growing Chinese demand for ores,
coal and grain. In recent years, post-Panamax vessels have started to call at U.S. ports. It is believed that the Panama Canal expansion will
increase the opportunities for trade as it will enable carriers to deploy larger, post-Panamax vessels to its Asia-East Coast and Asia-Gulf services
ports. Previously large vessel class trade with Asian markets occurred mainly at West Coast ports.
MPAXS
Trade liberalization boosts our economy--increased exports, empirically true.
C. Fred Bergsten, Director, Peterson Institute for International Economics, “Trade Saves the Day,”
WASHINGTON POST, September 17, 2008, p. A19.
Globalization is paying off for the United States just when we need it. Our traditional strategy of
helping other countries, especially in the developing world, strengthen their economies is
redounding to our major benefit. Our continuing effort to correct the huge trade and currency
imbalances is paying large dividends. The trade liberalization of the past 50 years remains incomplete but
has opened markets that our firms and workers can exploit. Efforts to derail the integration of the
world economy in the face of current developments would be contrary to U.S. national interests. We
should be making new compacts to reduce barriers as rapidly as possible rather than fearing to implement those already negotiated, such as the
free-trade agreements with Colombia and Korea that are languishing in Congress.
Mpax: Trade solve war
Expanding trade checks war, civil violence, and genocide.
Erich Weede, Professor, Sociology, University of Bonn, “The Diffusion of Prosperity and Peace by
Globalization,” INDEPENDENT REVIEW v. 9 n. 2, September 22, 20 04, p. 165+.
Earlier I referred to the wider concept of a "capitalist peace" instead of to the narrower concept of a "democratic peace." Fortunately, some
crucial steps on the road to a capitalist peace exert a pacifying impact: prosperity, or high average income, contributes to the viability of
democracy. A country achieves prosperity by economic growth. FDI is one helpful background condition for growth that also seems to promote
democratization (Burkhart and de Soysa 2002). Export orientation, active foreign trade, FDI inflows, and economic openness are other useful
determinants of economic growth (Dollar 1992; Edwards 1998; de Soysa and Oneal 1999; Bleany and Nishiyama 2002). As argued earlier,
international trade by itself reduces the risk of war between trading nations. Thus,
a beneficial means (namely, free trade)
directly and indirectly (via prosperity and democracy) contributes to a desirable end: the avoidance
of war between nations. Moreover, economic openness also reduces the risk of civil violence (de Soysa
2003) and of genocides or other political mass murders (Harff 2003), and the intervening variable of
prosperity--in-between trade and war avoidance--also happens to reduce the risk of domestic
instability and violence (Henderson and Singer 1999; World Bank 2003). The policy implications of the capitalistpeace strategy are simple: promote economic freedom and globalization. If the policy succeeds, one
gets more prosperity, more democracy, less civil war, and less interstate war.
Trade relationships solve war.
Boudreux 6 — Donald J. Boudreux, Chairman of the economics department at George Mason University,
11/20/06, “Want world peace? Support free trade,” http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1120/p09s02-coop.html
During the past 30 years, Solomon Polachek,
an economist at the State University of New York at Binghamton,
has researched the relationship between trade and peace. In his most recent paper on the topic, he and co-author
Carlos Seiglie of Rutgers University review the massive amount of research on trade, war, and peace. They find
that "the overwhelming evidence indicates that trade reduces conflict." Likewise for foreign investment. The
greater the amounts that foreigners invest in the United States, or the more that Americans invest
abroad, the lower is the likelihood of war between America and those countries with which it has
investment relationships. Professors Polachek and Seiglie conclude that, "The policy implication of our finding is that further
international cooperation in reducing barriers to both trade and capital flows can promote a more
peaceful world." Columbia University political scientist Erik Gartzke reaches a similar but more general
conclusion: Peace is fostered by economic freedom. Economic freedom certainly includes, but is broader than, the freedom
of ordinary people to trade internationally. It includes also low and transparent rates of taxation, the easy ability of
entrepreneurs to start new businesses, the lightness of regulations on labor, product, and credit
markets, ready access to sound money, and other factors that encourage the allocation of resources by markets rather than by
government officials. Professor Gartzke ranks countries on an economic-freedom index from 1 to 10, with 1
being very unfree and 10 being very free. He then examines military conflicts from 1816 through
2000. His findings are powerful: Countries that rank lowest on an economic-freedom index - with scores of 2
or less - are 14 times more likely to be involved in military conflicts than are countries whose people
enjoy significant economic freedom (that is, countries with scores of 8 or higher). Also important, the findings of Polachek and
Gartzke improve our understanding of the long-recognized reluctance of democratic nations to wage war against one another. These scholars
argue that the
so-called democratic peace is really the capitalist peace. Democratic institutions are heavily
have strong protections for private property rights, openness to foreign
commerce, and other features broadly consistent with capitalism. That's why the observation that any two
concentrated in countries that also
democracies are quite unlikely to go to war against each other might reflect the consequences of capitalism more than democracy. And that's
just what the data show. Polachek and Seiglie find that openness to trade is much more effective at encouraging peace than is democracy per se.
Similarly, Gartzke discovered that, "When
measures of both economic freedom and democracy are included in
a statistical study, economic freedom is about 50 times more effective than democracy in diminishing
violent conflict." These findings make sense. By promoting prosperity, economic freedom gives ordinary people a large stake in peace.
This prosperity is threatened during wartime. War almost always gives government more control
over resources and imposes the burdens of higher taxes, higher inflation, and other disruptions of
the everyday commercial relationships that support prosperity. When commerce reaches across
political borders, the peace-promoting effects of economic freedom intensify. Why? It's bad for the
bottom line to shoot your customers or your suppliers, so the more you trade with foreigners the less
likely you are to seek, or even to tolerate, harm to these foreigners.
I/L: Dredging solves trade
Dredging of navigation channels would increase exports
WJW 12
Waterways Journal Weekly, the news journal of record for the towing and barge industry on the inland waterways of the United States. “Report
says Obama export goal on Target.” Waterways Journal Weekly. Written January 30th, 2012. Accessed June 27, 2012.
http://www.waterwaysjournal.net/news013012.html
Critics of President Obama, including us at times, have used a broad brush to paint his administration as unproductive, though our
intention has never been to ignore progress or deny credit where due. Examples that come to mind include the lack of dredging on the
Lower Mississippi, how we believe it will impact imports and exports; and the stimulus program and its failure or success in producing
results. We
have been among the many trying to convince the government that not dredging the
rivers could cost the U.S. $9.2 billion of cargo annually, according to a recently released study. The fact that the
Lower Miss is THE focal point for exports (particularly agricultural) supports our conclusion. We have on many occasions
asked the question: How does the president expect to meet his goal of doubling exports within five
years if he will not allow the dredging of the Lower Mississippi? The answer appears to lie in other areas. A little
surprising to us, The New York Times reported on January 20 that the “administration is on track—for now—to meet its ambitious goal.”
The paper says, “Growing exports have been one of the central drivers of recovery, accounting for about half the nation’s economic
growth since the recession ended.” The Times gives credit to the administration for “pressuring China to increase the value of its currency
and open its markets to Americanbusiness. “Exports,” according to the Times and Commerce Department data, are running at about
$180 billion a month, up from $140 billion a month two years ago. They are currently growing
at an annual pace of about
16 per cent—a percentage point higher than necessary to double exports to $3.1 trillion by 2015.”
The administration also “pushed through three long-stalled trade deals with Columbia, South Korea and
Panama and also announced the framework for a trade and investmentagreement among nine Pacific
nations, the Trans-Pacific Partnership.” The Times reported that the global rebound from recession and rising commodity prices also
gave exports a boost. According to the Times, “farm exports reached a record $137.4 billion in the 2011 fiscal year, which ended
September 30, beating the previous annual peak by $22.5 billion, or 20 percent. Sales
of petroleum products also hit a
record of about $90 billion in 2011, making fuels the country’s biggest export.” Gary C. Hufbauer, a senior
fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics, told theTimes, “You could say the best thing the Obama administration did for
trade is the stimulus program, bolstering domestic and global demand.” We do know that the accelerated depreciation provisions, part of
Obama’s America’s Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) or stimulus program, made it possible for nearly 1,000 new hopper barges to
be delivered in 201l, that according Sandor
Toth, publisher of the River Transport News. He told the WJ that
he expects the number of deliveries to increase in 2012. Other influences on our foreign trade include demand from
abroad. For example, a need for coal in Australia due to disastrous weather in 2011 impact our coal exports. It is expected to decline this
year. Foreign trade, then, is a many-faceted issue. The needs, or lack thereof, in nations of the world influence our foreign trade figures.
There is some feeling among forecasters that exports will continue to expand, but the rate of expansion may slow down. However,
dredging on the Lower Miss remains a serious issue that needs to be handled sooner rather than
later. Losing $9.2 billion annually is no small matter. That amount of money, spent on our
navigational system annually, could produce wonders. We applaud the Obama administration for the trade
agreements and for its goal of increasing exports. Just imagine, though, how much stronger our exports would
be with a modern river infrastructure and proper dredging of ports and navigation channels.
Dredging of the waterways key to trade
McWirter 10
Cameron, writer for Wall Street Journal. “Crucial Trade Waterway Under Threat.” Wall Street Journal. Written December 14th,
2010. Accessed June 26, 2012. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704681804576017792169745816.html
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said it is likely to run short of funds as early as next spring to fully
dredge one of the nation's busiest waterways, potentially slowing the movement of key imports
and exports and raising shipping costs. A loose coalition of shippers, state governments, port operators and farmers up
and down the Mississippi River is pressing Congress to add tens of millions of dollars to the Corps' budget for fiscal 2011. The money is
needed, they say, to allow the agency to dredge the ports and channels around New Orleans and
Baton Rouge, La., to a standard depth and width necessary for cargo ships to pass. The Mississippi
River is a major transportation route for American businesses and farmers to send and receive
goods, but its mouth requires constant dredging to remove the silt brought down the river and its tributaries.
The fiscal 2011 budget calls for the Corps to receive $63 million for Lower Mississippi dredging, $6.3 more than it received in fiscal 2010.
But actual costs of dredging total about $85 million annually on average, and topped $110 million in fiscal 2010, according to the Corps.
To pay for the work in past years, the Corps diverted funds intended for repairs on locks, dams and other projects in other parts of the
country. But the agency says it can't do that this fiscal year due to expected budget cuts and repairs elsewhere it can't put off any longer.
"The
belt is being tightened, and it's hurting," said Steve Jones, navigation manager for the Corps'
Mississippi Valley Division. Concerns about annual funding for the dredging of the lower
Mississippi come as the Corps budget faces likely cuts. It also comes as other ports, like Savannah, Charleston and
Miami, pressure Congress to fund new projects to deepen their harbors in anticipation of an expansion of the Panama Canal by 2015,
The river system that feeds to the mouth of the Mississippi
carries barges loaded with imported petrochemical products, construction material and other
goods as well as exports such as grain, corn, soybean and coal. More than 60% of all agricultural
products exported from the U.S. are shipped through the mouth of the Mississippi. Dredging the lower
which will bring much larger ships to the eastern U.S.
Mississippi is one of the Corps' most costly maintenance projects, and heavy rains and snow and other extreme weather conditions in the
Upper Midwest in recent years have increased dredging costs, according to the Corps. The Corps normally guarantees to dredge
to a
depth of 45 feet in most parts of the Mississippi River and a width of 500 to 750 feet for the lower river's ports and
channels. But this year, "we haven't guaranteed anything ," Mr. Jones said. Reduced dredging would slow
large ships and could require shippers to unload cargo to smaller ships to transport to river ports,
raising transportation costs, shippers say. Some channels would shrink to single-lane shipping,
backing up river traffic.
Topshelf XTs: Terrorism
Waterway infrastructure is obsolete in the status quo – signals an invitation for an
easy terrorist target.
Randy Van Dyne, 7-27-2007, Executive Director of the All Hazards Training Center at The University of
Findlay, “The Inland Waterway Invitation to Terrorism,” The Homeland Security Blog,
http://www.thehomelandsecurityblog.com/2010/07/27/the-inland-waterway-invitation-to-terrorism/
But here at The All Hazards Training Center at The University of Findlay, it is the maritime component of the bill that caught our attention.
Findlay is part of the Rural Domestic Preparedness Consortium, and we provide security training and planning for waterway officials in rural
areas. So we watch events in the maritime sector of domestic security. Many are surprised at the immense traffic of rural inland waterways. The
Port of Huntington-Tri-State, our largest inland port, handles nearly 80 million tons of cargo each year but is barely within 3 hours of any city of
a half-million people or more. And ports
and marine terminals are only the most obvious component of marine
commerce. River and seaway locks are also a vital part of the nation’s waterway system.
Infrastructurereportcard.org is a fascinating site created by civil engineers that provides their report card for categories of U.S.
infrastructure. The site recently graded inland waterways a frightening D minus, citing the fact that nearly half of all locks are
obsolete. Should a lock or a busy river or lake port, like Duluth, MN, or our nearby Port of Toledo, or the Soo Locks,
become a victim of a terrorist attack, U.S. transportation could be altered drastically. The
reverberation would not only cause major changes to the transportation of goods in the immediate
days following the attack, thanks to re-routing, but the reaction of maritime security nationwide could
greatly slow traffic at all ports and on all rivers. This week, New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg touted the current appropriations
bill as crucial to the security of the Port of Newark. Clearly, a huge maritime facility like Newark is a visible and complex
target with ongoing security concerns. But like many who address the needs of rural responders and security managers, our
Findlay All Hazards staff wonders when terrorism will come to an inland target. It’s our hope that the programs that arise
from this new appropriation bill will meet the needs of inland and rural ports and terminals, as well as those of the larger
ports of the U.S.
A new focus on transportation infrastructure is key to prevent a terrorist attack on
U.S. waterways – efforts are failing now.
Breanne Wagner, November 2007, staff writer, National Defense, “License to Boat?,” Vol. 92 Issue 648, p. 22,
Ebsco Host
***cites Dana Goward, director of Coast Guard maritime domain awareness***
Small boats
have been used by terrorists to carry out attacks around the world and they are likely to
be employed as weapons in U.S. water ways, the government has recently warned. Officials believe small vessels—
defined as those less than 300 gross tons—are a poten-tial threat because they are easy to obtain and there are
few defenses in place to stop them from being used as a platform to launch an attack, "We are very concerned about people
doing harm with small vessels because we have breaches every week," said Dana Goward, director of Coast Guard maritime
domain awareness. An estimated 14 uniden-tified boats reach U.S. shores each week. DHS and the Coast Guard have put the
spotlight on the possibility of such an attack, emphasizing the need to protect U.S. water-ways. But
despite efforts to create new security measures, officials are failing to gar-ner the support of small boat owners and
operators because of the lack of a clear, cohe-sive plan. During a speech in December 2006, Adm. Thad Allen, commandant of
the Coast Guard, singled out the threat of water borne improvised explosive devices on boats, saying that the issue needed extra attention.
Mine deployment and IED development for use against waterways is technically
feasible and easily purchased.
Scott C. Truver, Winter 2008, is Executive Advisor, National Security Programs, at Gryphon Technologies LC,
specializing in national and homeland security, and naval and maritime strategies, doctrines, programs and
operations, the interagency task force drafting the U.S. President’s National Strategy for Maritime Security, Ph.D. in
Marine Policy Studies from Naval Postgraduate School, and the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy, Naval War
College Review, Vol. 61 Issue 1, “MINES AND UNDERWATER IEDS IN U.S. PORTS AND WATERWAYS,” p.
108-9, Ebsco Host
Mines and UWIEDs are easy to acquire or build and are cheap, ranging from a few tens of dollars to
$25,000 for the most advanced, multiple-influence weapons. Even then, their low cost belies their potential for harm.
They can be deployed by submarines, surface warships, small craft, commercial vessels, dhows, fishing
vessels, pleasure boats, aircraft and helicopters. They are designed for operations from the surf zone (less than 10-foot water
depth) to deep water (greater than 200 feet). They can range from a few pounds to several tons of high explosive
and can have a variety of firing mechanisms: remote control and command; contact; and magnetic, acoustic, seismic,
pressure or combinations of some/all such “influence” signatures of ships. They can be buoyant and suspended in the
water column, close-tethered to the bottom, resting on the bottom or even buried under sediments to confound mine-hunting and –
sweeping. Some mines are mobile, capable of being launched from submarines thousands of yards from
intended minefields, while others have torpedo or rocket-propelled warheads that dramatically expand potential damage zones against
submarine and surface targets. Limpet mines are designed to be placed directly on targets by combat swimmers or, in the future, unmanned
undersea vehicles (UUVs). Old
mines can be refitted with modern, highly sophisticated components and all
mines with counter-countermeasure features to frustrate EOD and sweeping and hunting operations. They can be
fabricated from fiberglass and plastic, making them extremely difficult to detect, identify and counter...once in the water. And they are a broadspectrum, global threat. According to Navy data, more
than a quarter million naval mines of all types are in the
inventories of more than 50 navies, in addition to U.S. weapons. More than 30 countries produce and more
than 20 countries export these weapons. Even highly sophisticated weapons are available on the
“black market,” usually on a cash-and carry basis. And, these Navy data do not include UWIEDs, which can be
fabricated easily, as the Iraqi “bicycle” floating anti-small boat mine encountered during Operation Desert Shield proved.
Terrorism could be used on U.S. waterways with devastating psychological effect –
resulting economic and military blowbacks would be disastrous***
Scott C. Truver, Winter 2008, is Executive Advisor, National Security Programs, at Gryphon Technologies LC,
specializing in national and homeland security, and naval and maritime strategies, doctrines, programs and
operations, the interagency task force drafting the U.S. President’s National Strategy for Maritime Security, Ph.D. in
Marine Policy Studies from Naval Postgraduate School, and the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy, Naval War
College Review, Vol. 61 Issue 1, “MINES AND UNDERWATER IEDS IN U.S. PORTS AND WATERWAYS,” p.
107-8, Ebsco Host
In the American experience, the first use of UWIEDs came in September 1776, when the patriot (or, in
English eyes, terrorist) David Bushnell attempted to fix a limpet mine on Lord Howe's flagship HMS Eagle in the
Hudson River.* Bushnell's attack was frustrated by bad luck and the "passive protection" of the ship's iron fittings. Fifteen months later,
Bushnell used floating kegs of gun-powder fitted with contact-firing mechanisms against the British fleet above Philadelphia; four British
sailors die trying to retrieve the kegs from the Dela-ware River—an early example of explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) against an unknown
threat—but the fleet was unscathed.^ More than two centuries on, terrorists
can use or threaten to use mines and
UWIEDs for a variety of political, economic, or military ends, often with psy-chological effects
foremost in mind. While small devices might have no more than nuisance value, as a way to exacerbate anxieties (Boston's reaction
to "guer-rilla marketing" in early 2007 comes to mind), larger mines can be placed sur-reptitiously in channels and
harbors to achieve spectacular effects—against, for example, the Staten Island Ferry, crammed with 2,500 commuters during an
evening rush hour, or a cruise ship with four thousand vacationers and crew on board leaving Miami or Seattle.* The tragedy of
hundreds of bodies floating in a port would intensify the psychological message about the true
security of Amer-ica' s home waters. Mines can directly attack the nation's waterborne trade. More
than 90 percent of American exports and imports by volume transits U.S. ports, and the efficient and
safe movement to four foreign, coastal, and inland-waters trades is critical for America's globalized,
just-in-time, and just-enough economy. The economic consequences of just a few mines in our ports could be
catastrophic, as the two-week West Coast labor slowdown in the fall of 2002 implies—a $1.95 billion impact per day. According to a
University of California at Berkeley analysis, the direct and indirect economic impacts of a twenty-day longshoremen's
work ac-tion would cost the U.S. economy more than $50 billion (in 2002 dollars). 'Even if no ships were
sunk or damaged and no channels were blocked, explosions in a few key ports on East, Gulf, and West coasts and in the
Saint Lawrence Seaway— clearly not an impossible feat, as September 11th tragically proved—would have a chilling effect on commercial
shipping in terms of increased insurance costs and vessel lay days. The economic tremors would reverberate throughout the nation and to
trading partners overseas. There could
be serious military impacts, as well. Mines in critical waterways could
slow the movement of military cargoes in crisis and conflict. During World War II, the port of Charleston, South
Carolina, was closed for sixteen days by mines from German submarines. In all, U-boats managed to lay 327 mines from Halifax, Nova Scotia,
to the Mississippi Delta, closing several ports for a to-tal of forty days and sinking or damaging eleven ships. Today, while mines might not be
"showstoppers," they
would certainly be "speed bumps"; just a few weap-ons in the approaches to the port
of Savannah, Georgia; the Houston Ship Chan-nel; and one or two other waterways could hamper
the military sealift that undergirds war plans.
The UWIED will be nuclear – ease of use and record of success.
James J. Carafano, 4-28-2008, is Assistant Director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
International Studies and Senior Research Fellow for National Security and Homeland Security in the Douglas and
Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, The National Terror Alert, “Homeland
Security Unveils Plans To Thwart Small Boat Terror Attacks,”
http://www.nationalterroralert.com/2008/04/28/homeland-security-unveils-plans-to-thwart-small-boat-terror-attacks/
As boating season approaches, the Bush administration
wants to enlist the country’s 80 million recreational boaters to help
reduce the chances a small boat could deliver a nuclear or radiological bomb along the country’s 95,000
miles of coastline and inland waterways. According to a Wednesday intelligence assessment obtained by the Associated
Press: “The use of a small boat as a weapon is likely to remain al-Qaeda’s weapon of choice in the
maritime environment, given its ease in arming and deploying, low cost, and record of success.”
While the U nited S tates has so far been spared this type of strike in its own waters, terrorists have used
small boats to attack in other countries. The millions of humble dinghies, fishing boats, and smaller cargo ships that ply
America’s waterways are not nationally regulated as they buzz around ports, oil tankers, power plants, and other potential terrorist targets. This
could allow terrorists in small boats to carry out an attack similar to the USS Cole bombing, said Adm.
Thad Allen, the Coast Guard commandant. That 2000 attack killed 17 U.S. sailors in Yemen when terrorists rammed a dinghy packed with
explosives into the destroyer. “There is no intelligence right now that there’s a credible risk” of this type of attack, Allen said. “But the
vulnerability is there.” To reduce the potential for such an attack in the United States, the Department of Homeland Security has
developed a strategy intended to increase security by enhancing safety standards. The Coast Guard is part of the department.
Even a conventional attack causes retaliation.
Daniel Byman, September 2007, director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies at Georgetown’s School of
Foreign Service, “US Counter-Terrorism Options,” Survival, Vol. 49 Issue 3, JSTOR
One of the biggest problems with containment is the home front. Containment is the antithesis of a ’crush‘ strategy, and thus appears as
weakness to domestic audiences who are scared, angry and hungry for vengeance after a terrorist attack. This public response is not based on a
rational calculation of the risks. Yet terrorism
scares people. Even a limited number of deaths, particularly on home
soil, thus has a disproportionate psychological effect. Work stops, and people refuse to travel. Public confidence in
government plunges. This may be irrational from an actuarial point of view, but policymakers must adjust policy to
cope with the behaviour of their citizens. Moreover, every government must ensure the security of its citizens to be credible,
and the deliberate murder of civilians is a direct challenge to a government’s legitimacy. It is impossible for politicians not to
respond to such provocations. The Bush administration has spent the years since 11 September telling the
American people how dangerous the threat is, and most Democratic politicians have joined in the chorus. When politicians
try to soften their rhetoric on terrorism, they face tremendous criticism. During the waning days of the 2004 elections, Democratic presidential
candidate John Kerry told the New York Times that he wanted to turn terrorism into a ‘nuisance’ like crime; President Bush told reporters that
the United States would never achieve a clear victory in the war. The public outcry forced both to ‘clarify’ – that is, to disown – their
statements. One cannot take the politics out of counter-terrorism. The painful reality might be that ‘doing something‘ – whether spending money
aggressively abroad – is necessary to reassure people after a massive attack on
the homeland, since a perception that the government was passive could contribute to a massive
overreaction. Reaction may be necessary to prevent overreaction.
on homeland security or acting
Most recent reports show that the U.S. would target Pakistan after an attack.
Steve Watson, 12-5-2008, “Propaganda Recycled: US Report Blames Pakistan for Future WMD Attack,”
http://www.infowars.net/articles/december2008/051208Propaganda.htm
In a blatant effort to bolster the ailing war on terror, a
report produced as part of a mandate by the U.S. Congress has
concluded that a major terror attack will occur somewhere in the world before 2013 and that the blame will firmly
fall at the feet of Pakistan. The Commission on the Prevention of W eapons of M ass D estruction
Proliferation and Terrorism, singled out Pakistan as a grave concern because of its network of terror groups, history of
instability and nuclear capabilities, reports Reuters. The panel, chaired by former head of the joint congressional inquiry into 9/11 Sen. Bob
Graham, concluded that a large scale attack will likely involve the use of nuclear or biological weapons on a major city. “Were one to
map terrorism and w eapons of m ass d estruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan,” the report states,
adding that “the focus of US policy should be to help Pakistan achieve political and economic stability”. While acknowledging that Pakistan is
an ally of the US, the report also states, “there
is a grave danger it could also be an unwitting source of a terrorist
attack on the United States — possibly using w eapons of m ass d estruction”. “The risk that radical Islamists — Al Qaeda or
Taliban — may gain access to nuclear material is real,” the report urges, adding “Should the Pakistani
government become weaker, and the Pakistani nuclear arsenal grow, that risk will increase. With each
new facility, military or civilian, comes added security concerns,” The report advises the US to “build a national security workforce for the 21st
century” by establishing a countrywide program of education and training. The panel also urges President-elect Barack Obama to "take a tough
line" with the so called rogue states of Iran and North Korea. White House Press Secretary Dana Perino yesterday said that the Bush
administration agreed with the report stating “I have no reason to disagree with it,” when asked by reporters. The report smacks of recycled
propaganda in an effort to shift the primary focus of the war on terror on to Pakistan. In 2002 and 2003 exactly the same rhetoric was used in the
build up to the Iraq war in order to garner support for an armed invasion. In 2005 Dick Cheney tasked the United States Strategic Command
(STRATCOM) with drawing up
a contingency plan to be employed in response to another 9/11-type terrorist attack on the United
States. The plan involved a massive air strike on Iran which included the use of nuclear weapons. The publication reported that,
"The response is not conditional on Iran actually being involved in the act of terrorism directed against the United States," meaning that any
exact same strategy is
being employed in regard to Pakistan, a country that the US military continues to unlawfully strike with missiles, often killing
such attack would immediately be blamed on Iran and any evidence to the contrary would be buried. Now the
innocent civilians. As we highlighted last week, the terror attacks in Mumbai were almost immediately blamed on Pakistan, despite much
evidence to suggest the perpetrators were homegrown Indian extremists. The
attacks have provided a perfect pretext for
to increase U.S. aggression inside the Pakistan as he promised to do during his election campaign. With
the CPWMDPT report it now becomes the default position to blame Pakistan for any major attack that
may occur in the near future, thus justifying the continued military occupation of more of the middle east in the name of the war
Barack Obama
on terror.
Global nuclear war.
Daniel R. McBride, 8-1-2007, Montreal-Based Writer, “From the Torching of the Louvain to Bomber Harris”,
Moderate Observer, http://moderate.wordpress.com/2007/08/01/lessons-from-bomber-harris-if-the-us-strikespakistan/
One can imagine Musharraf is desperate to remove the prospect of the Americans striking targets with bombs and missiles within
western Pakistan (read Pashtunistan) where the Pakistani government has almost no writ. An
attack there against supposed Al Qaeda or
trigger a
much vaster Pashtun uprising within Pakistan, rendering the entire area even more ungovernable for Islamabad
than it is right now, possibly right to the Indus river. Even worse, in addition to the Pashtun reaction, a broader Islamist reaction
within Pakistan could trigger a larger regional war involving nuclear weapons. Many within the Pakistani
Taliban “high-value targets” would boost Pashtun militant forces fighting NATO troops in Afghanistan, and almost certainly
military, right up to top generals, are Islamists, or very much sympathetic thereto, and the threat of a coup is very real. The Bush/Cheney regime
has precious few options left globally as they are distrusted everywhere with good reason, but they still have a last card to play in their global
game of RISK—a rain of bombs and missiles from the air. As they don’t really have any spare troops for anything above small Special Forces
insertions, to risk seeing the secular Musharraf regime over-turned as an asset for tempting air strikes has to be the height of folly. In any case, if
they don’t attack the militant centers in western Pakistan they will lose the war in Afghanistan in the near future; if they do attack, they will
probably lose it even faster. The opportunity to make good as an occupier by the U.S. and NATO in Afghanistan is long-gone and the air strikes,
if sent in, should be viewed within the context of a failed war, as in Nixon’s Christmas bombing of Vietnam 1972. A
certain result of
this development, if it occurs along with the predicted Cheney attack on Iran in August, would be Islamic regimes or anarchic
regions at war with the U.S., NATO, and probably Israel, from Pakistan to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The rise of a
militant “Caliphate” thereby—another bogeyman used to scare Americans by Bush/Cheney—becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Add another
jolting terrorist attack in the U.S. “homeland” and the senatorial Gauleiters will ditch all resistance to the Bush regime and applaud or remain
silent as a martial law regime is instituted. The “Enabling Act” has already been drafted and passed allowing Bush to do just that with no chance
of avoiding it other than impeachment before it happens, or an American military putsch to remove him at the last minute. Sound far-fetched?
Bush’s Martial Law Act of 2007 modified the Insurrection Act. Section 333 states that in the event of “….major public emergencies;
interference with State and Federal law, the President may employ the armed forces, including the National Guard in Federal service, to restore
public order and enforce the laws of the United States when, as a result of a natural disaster, epidemic, or other serious public health emergency,
terrorist attack or incident, or other condition in any State or possession of the United States, the President determines that domestic violence has
occurred to such an extent that the constituted authorities of the State or possession are incapable of (’refuse’ or ‘fail’ in) maintaining public
order, ‘in order to suppress, in any State, any insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination, or conspiracy.’” Note in particular the
specter of “States Rights”—the real underlying issue that started the American Civil War, not black emancipation—contained in the
parenthetical inclusion of the specific scenario of a U.S. State “refusing” or “failing” to maintain “public order” as defined by the cabal in
Washington, this being sufficient cause to deploy outside forces against the State itself. I am surely not the first to note this parallel. Beyond
U.S. borders the prospects are even grimmer as an attack on Iran would “logically” have to involve small nukes to get at underground Iranian
nuclear facilities and this
would start WW III in the sense of an unpredictable but almost certain shock
wave drawing in other countries into the maelstrom rapidly, even Russia and China in particular, and Syria
certainly as it has a defense pact with Iran. Israel would likely be involved in the air attacks (perhaps even leading them to give the US an
excuse) and that would almost certainly be the proverbial straw for the Arab/Muslim world—the days would be numbered for all the “atheist”
dictator regimes like Mubbarak’s in Egypt, the Saudis, and all the Gulf States that have allowed the American military to base in their countries.
As noted, WW III would be started even sooner with an Islamist putsch in Pakistan. Pakistani nukes even remotely
falling into the hands of an Islamist regime in Islamabad would result in the pulverization of all Pakistani military and nuclear sites from the air
by the U.S., Israel (with submarine-launched missiles), and even India, within hours.
IWW vulnerable
Inland waterway transportation is vulnerable to terrorist attack
Van Dyne ‘7
Randy Van Dyne, 7-27-2007, Executive Director of the All Hazards Training Center at The University of
Findlay, “The Inland Waterway Invitation to Terrorism,” The Homeland Security Blog
Congress is now considering a bill that would give security at American ports a much-needed
shot in the arm. The homeland security appropriations bill now in debate would, if enacted,
provide $350 million for the port security grant program. That’s a major jump over last year,
increasing spending in that area by $50 million. The bill also provides finance support for the
Coast Guard, as well as funding for increased security grant programs for means of land transit,
like buses and trains. But here at The All Hazards Training Center at The University of Findlay, it
is the maritime component of the bill that caught our attention. Findlay is part of the Rural
Domestic Preparedness Consortium, and we provide security training and planning for
waterway officials in rural areas. So we watch events in the maritime sector of domestic
security. Many are surprised at the immense traffic of rural inland waterways. The Port of
Huntington-Tri-State, our largest inland port, handles nearly 80 million tons of cargo each year
but is barely within 3 hours of any city of a half-million people or more. And ports and marine
terminals are only the most obvious component of marine commerce. River and seaway locks
are also a vital part of the nation’s waterway system. Infrastructurereportcard.org is a
fascinating site created by civil engineers that provides their report card for categories of U.S.
infrastructure. The site recently graded inland waterways a frightening D minus, citing the fact
that nearly half of all locks are obsolete. Should a lock or a busy river or lake port, like Duluth,
MN, or our nearby Port of Toledo, or the Soo Locks, become a victim of a terrorist attack, U.S.
transportation could be altered drastically. The reverberation would not only cause major
changes to the transportation of goods in the immediate days following the attack, thanks to
re-routing, but the reaction of maritime security nationwide could greatly slow traffic at all
ports and on all rivers.
Terrorism possible now
Deployment of mines and vessel IED’s can be easily deployed in a deteriorating
waterway.
Grace v. Jean, January 2008, staff writer, National Defense Magazine, “Underwater Killers,” p. 29, Ebsco Host
The vessel-bourne IED
is more probable than a mining scenario, said Truver, simply because it is easier to drive an
explosives laden boat into the side of another ship than Maritime Security it is to go through the preparations to make a mine. But
mines are still a viable altema-tive because more sophisticated variants are becoming easier to attain
on the open mar-ket, headded. Sea mines are proliferating and becoming stealthier, said Capt, Bruce Nichols, director of the
Navy's mine warfare branch. Sweden is producing a mine that looks like rock. Russia is exporting mines that are difficult
to sweep and China is manufacturing mines that move in the water column, which complicates the neutralization part of the
equation. But regardless of the type of explosive, once it finds its way into the water, it becomes difficult to distinguish in the
clut-tered underwater environment. "An IED can be just as stealthy as a high-ly sophisticated fiber glass-sheathed Rock and
mine," said Truver. Detecting the mine is only part of the problem. Once the explo-sive has been identified, forces still have to render it safe.
Waterways are vulnerable to planned attacks now.
Grace v. Jean, January 2008, staff writer, National Defense Magazine, “Underwater Killers,” p. 28-9, Ebsco Host
***cites Admiral John Christenson, vice commander of the Naval Mine and Anti-Submarine Warfare
Command***
The U.S. Navy possesses one of the premier mine-hunting forces in the world, but it is ill-prepared to thwart terrorist
attacks on U.S. ports and waterways, offi-cials said. "Underwater improvised explosive devices are a credible
threat," said Rear Adm. John Christenson, vice commander of the Naval Mine and Anti-Submarine Warfare Com-mand. "We consider it an
unlikely event, but if it did happen, it would have huge conse-quences that would be very expensive and
difficult to recover from, "he told an indus-try audience at a recent conference. The D epartments of H omeland S ecurity and
Defense have begun planning for sce-narios of IEDs and mines in U.S. ports. They have conducted war games and that show
the consequences such incidents could have on a nation dependent upon the seas for 90 percent of its
commerce. For example, a sin-gle World War Il-style mine in the channels of Houston, Texas, would essentially shut down the entire port, said Rear Adm.
Thomas Atkin, commander of the Coast Guard's deployable operations group. From the Coast Guard's perspective, mar-itime improvised explosive
devices are the number-one terrorist threat, said Ken McDaniel, deputy division chief of the office of counterterrorism and
defense oper-ations' maritime counterterrorism division. "We already know that they've tried to use it with success in various
forms, "he told the conference.
Waterways are vulnerable to a terrorist attack now – reverberations would be
widespread and immediate.
Newswise, 9-7-2011, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, “Research Addresses Security of Inland Waterways,”
http://www.newswise.com/articles/research-addresses-security-of-inland-waterways
“We’re
trying to develop a fundamental understanding of the critical interdependence of multi-modal and
intermodal transportation systems as they relate to the nation’s inland waterway system,” said Heather
Nachtmann, associate professor of industrial engineering and director of the Mack-Blackwell Rural Transportation Center. “Specifically, we
want to enable law-enforcement and emergency-management agencies by providing vital information about commercially important rivers and
the various infrastructure connected to these rivers.” The
U nited S tates has approximately 12,000 navigable miles of
commercially used rivers that may be vulnerable to attack, natural disaster or accidental events, Nachtmann said. If
such an event were to occur, commercial traffic on these rivers could not be quickly or easily replaced by other modes of transportation, such as
rail or trucking, to re-route goods and services. The
canal locks and pipelines, would
loss of these waterways and related infrastructure, such as bridges,
have immediate and adverse social and economic impacts on a region or possibly
the entire nation. With $200,000 in initial funding from Homeland Security, Nachtmann and colleagues at the Mack-Blackwell Center
are developing a system, called Supporting Secure and Resilient Inland Waterways, that they hope will evolve into a prototype for the decisionsupport system.
Waterways investment stops terrorism
A re-investment in waterways infrastructure is necessary to stop terrorist threats –
federal focus key.
Scott C. Truver, Winter 2008, is Executive Advisor, National Security Programs, at Gryphon Technologies LC,
specializing in national and homeland security, and naval and maritime strategies, doctrines, programs and
operations, the interagency task force drafting the U.S. President’s National Strategy for Maritime Security, Ph.D. in
Marine Policy Studies from Naval Postgraduate School, and the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy, Naval War
College Review, Vol. 61 Issue 1, “MINES AND UNDERWATER IEDS IN U.S. PORTS AND WATERWAYS,” p.
117, Ebsco Host
The U nited S tates confronts the daunting task of protecting some 95,000 miles of coastlines and
thousands of miles of inland/Great Lakes waterways, 361 ports, and a territorial sea/exclusive economic zone that comprises
more than 3.4 million square miles of ocean space and at any time is cluttered with thousands of naval warships, commercial vessels and fishing
boats, tugs and ferries...not to ignore millions of private pleasure craft. Sorting
the legal from the illegal in such a complex
maritime domain is a Herculean task that challenges federal, regional, state, and local agencies, commercial
entities, and other non-governmental organizations to work hand-in-glove and collaborate with allies and friends to safeguard
maritime security at home and abroad. Maritime Domain Awareness––what the 2005 National Strategy for Maritime Security
describes as the “effective understanding of anything associated with the maritime domain that could impact
the security, safety, economy, or environment of the United States, and identifying threats as early and as distant from our
shores as possible”––will thus be absolutely necessary for success against a broad spectrum of maritime
threats, including mines and UWIEDs.
New architecture is key to solve shortfalls in waterway security gaps.
Scott C. Truver, Winter 2008, is Executive Advisor, National Security Programs, at Gryphon Technologies LC,
specializing in national and homeland security, and naval and maritime strategies, doctrines, programs and
operations, the interagency task force drafting the U.S. President’s National Strategy for Maritime Security, Ph.D. in
Marine Policy Studies from Naval Postgraduate School, and the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy, Naval War
College Review, Vol. 61 Issue 1, “MINES AND UNDERWATER IEDS IN U.S. PORTS AND WATERWAYS,” p.
116-7, Ebsco Host
At the federal level, domestic mine/UWIED responsibilities seem to be clear. Under the 2002 Maritime
Transportation Security Act, the Coast Guard in the Department of Homeland Security is the lead federal agency (LFA) for maritime homeland
security (MHLS). The Federal Bureau of Investigation, in the Department of Justice, is the LFA for terrorism/counter-terrorism; DoJ’s Bureau
of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives also figures prominently in investigations involving explosives. And the Navy, in the Department
of Defense, is the LFA for mine countermeasures expertise and operations. Below this strategic context, however, things get a tad murky, and
the frameworks
for responding to a mine or UWIED threat at the operational and tactical levels need
some work. Under the 2005 National Strategy for Maritime Security, the National Response Plan, the National Incident Management
System and the National Incident Command System (NIMS/NICS), and the Maritime Operational Threat Response (MOTR) Plan
provide the going in architecture for MHLS operations. But regional, state, local, and commercial partners must also be
closely integrated and informed. Indeed, a multi-agency multiple-governmental command, control, communications, intelligence,
reconnaissance, and surveillance architecture and response system is needed for each U.S. port––or at least the 17
“tier-one” facilities having significant military or economic importance––within the overall MHLS and Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA)
framework. (See Figure 1.) Mines
and UWIEDs are just one of many threats to U.S. maritime homeland
security, but they are particularly treacherous, insidious, and deadly.
Terrorism bad – ports
Port terrorism collapses the global economy.
Todd Konkel, 2005, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, “Container
Security: Preventing a Nuclear Catastrophe,” http://wwwirps.ucsd.edu/IPS/Container%20Security%20Preventing%20a%20Nuclear%20Catastrophe
What, then, is the potential impact of an attack on a major U.S. port involving a nuclear weapon or
dirty bomb? Without question, the damage would be devastating. Gal Luft and Anne Korin at the Institute for the
Analysis of Global Security describe a scenario where terrorists ram a cargo ship loaded with explosives, or
possibly a WMD, into a major port or terminal. “Such an attack,” they state, “could bring international trade
to a halt, inflicting multi-billion-dollar damage on the world economy.” 4 Robert Bonner, currently the
Commissioner of Customs and Border Protection, painted a similarly bleak picture in August 2002: “There is virtually no security for what is
If terrorists
used a sea container to conceal a weapon of mass destruction and detonated it on arrival at a port,
the impact on global trade and the global economy could be immediate and devastating – all nations
would be affected. No container ships would be permitted to unload at U.S. ports after such an
event.”
the primary system to transport global trade. The consequences of a terrorist incident using a container would be profound . . .
Terrorism bad – CBWs
New tech eliminates tech barriers for CBWs.
Dana A. Shea, 12-1-2004, Analyst in Science and Technology Policy Resources, Science, and Industry Division
for Congressional Research Service, “Terrorism: Background on Chemical, Biological, and Toxin Weapons and
Options for Lessening Their Impact,” http://www.fas.org/irp/crs/RL31669.pdf
Previously, it was thought that the difficulties of developing, weaponizing, and disseminating chemical, biological,
and toxin weapons provided high barriers to their use by non-state actors.8 Advances in molecular biology,
chemistry, and engineering have increased the ease by which biological and chemical compounds can be
manufactured. Purchasable civilian technologies may be applicable to manufacture of c hemical, b iological, and
toxin w eapon s .9 The Defense Threat Reduction Agency was able to assemble the requisite equipment from civilian sources. Under Project
BACUS, a biological agent production facility was successfully built in Nevada from dual-use technology without drawing regulatory
attention.10 Some experts
maintain that the technological barriers to chemical, biological, and toxin use have
significantly decreased.
CBW use causes extinction.
John D. Steinbruner, 12-22-1997, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, and Vice Chair, Committee on
International Security and Arms Control, National Academy of Sciences, “Biological Weapons: A Plague Upon All
Houses,” Foreign Policy, Lexis Nexis
Although human pathogens are often lumped with nuclear explosives and lethal chemicals as potential weapons of
mass destruction, there is an obvious, fundamentally important difference: Pathogens are alive, weapons are
not. Nuclear and chemical weapons do not reproduce themselves and do not independently engage in adaptive
behavior; pathogens do both of these things. That deceptively simple observation has immense implications. The use of a
manufactured weapon is a singular event. Most of the damage occurs immediately. The aftereffects, whatever they may be, decay rapidly over
time and distance in a reasonably predictable manner. Even before a nuclear warhead is detonated, for instance, it is possible to estimate the
extent of the subsequent damage and the likely level of radioactive fallout. Such predictability is an essential component for tactical military
planning. The use of a pathogen, by contrast, is an extended process whose scope and timing cannot be precisely controlled.
For most potential biological agents, the predominant drawback is that they would not act swiftly or decisively enough to be an effective
weapon. But for a few pathogens - ones most likely to have a decisive effect and therefore the ones most likely to be contemplated for
deliberately hostile use - the risk runs in the other direction. A
lethal pathogen that could efficiently spread from one victim
to another would be capable of initiating an intensifying cascade of disease that might ultimately threaten the
entire world population. The 1918 influenza epidemic demonstrated the potential for a global contagion of this sort but not
necessarily its outer limit.
MPAX: US will Retaliate
Terrorism sparks U.S. retaliation globally.
Nicole Schwartz-Morgan, 10-10-2001, Assistant Professor of Politics and Economics at Royal Military
College of Canada, “Wild Globalization and Terrorism,” http://www.wfs.org/mmmorgan.htm
The terrorist act can reactivate atavistic defense mechanisms which drive us to gather around clan chieftans.
Nationalistic sentiment re-awakens, setting up an implacable frontier which divides "us" from "them,"
each group solidifying its cohesion in a rising hate/fear of the other group. (Remember Yugoslavia?) To be sure, the allies are trying for the
moment to avoid the language of polarization, insisting that "this is not a war," that it is "not against Islam," "civilians will not be targeted." But
the word "war" was pronounced, a word heavy with significance which forces the issue of partisanship. And it must be understood that the
sentiment of partisanship, of belonging to the group, is one of the strongest of human emotions. Because the enemy has been named in the
media (Islam), the situation has become emotionally volatile. Another
spectacular attack, coming on top of an
economic recession could easily radicalize the latent attitudes of the United States, and also of
Europe, where racial prejudices are especially close to the surface and ask no more than a pretext to burst out. This is the Sarajevo syndrome:
an isolated act of madness becomes the pretext for a war that is just as mad, made of ancestral rancor, measureless ambitions, and armies in
search of a war. We should not be fooled by our expressions of good will and charity toward the innocent victims of this or other distant wars. It
is our own comfortable circumstances which permit us these benevolent sentiments. If conditions change so that poverty and famine put the fear
of starvation in our guts, the human beast will reappear. And if
epidemic becomes a clear and present danger, fear will
unleash hatred in the land of the free, flinging missiles indiscriminately toward any supposed havens of the
unseen enemy. And on the other side, no matter how profoundly complex and differentiated Islamic nations and tribes may be, they will
be forced to behave as one clan by those who see advantage in radicalizing the conflict, whether they be themselves merchants or terrorists.
Even an unsuccessful attack triggers this.
Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, August/September 2004, political analyst, Al-Ahram Weekly On-Line,
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm
We have reached a point in human history where the phenomenon of terrorism has to be completely uprooted, not through persecution and
oppression, but by removing the reasons that make particular sections of the world population resort to terrorism. This means that fundamental
changes must be brought to the world system itself. The phenomenon of terrorism is even more
dangerous than is generally
believed. We are in for surprises no less serious than 9/11 and with far more devastating
consequences. A nuclear attack by terrorists will be much more critical than Hiroshima and Nagazaki, even if -- and this is far from
certain -- the weapons used are less harmful than those used then, Japan, at the time, with no knowledge of nuclear technology, had no choice
but to capitulate. Today, the technology is a secret for nobody. So far, except for the two bombs dropped on Japan, nuclear weapons have been
used only to threaten. Now we are at a stage where they can be detonated. This completely changes the rules of the game. We have reached a
point where anticipatory measures can determine the course of events. Allegations of a terrorist connection can be used to justify anticipatory
measures, including the invasion of a sovereign state like Iraq. As it turned out, these allegations, as well as the allegation that Saddam was
harbouring WMD, proved to be unfounded. What would
be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists?
Even if it fails, it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living. Societies
would close in on themselves, police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights, tensions between civilisations
and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. It would also speed up the arms race and develop
the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. But the still more
critical scenario is if the attack succeeds. This could lead to a third world war, from which no one will
emerge victorious. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another, this war will be
without winners and losers. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.
Retaliation results in Iran strikes and extinction.
Jerome Corsi, 2005, Expert in Antiwar Movements and Political Violence, Atomic Iran, p. 176-8
The United States retaliates: 'End
of the world' scenarios The combination of horror and outrage that will surge upon the nation
will demand that the president retaliate for the incomprehensible damage done by the attack. The problem will be that the
president will not immediately know how to respond or against whom. The perpetrators will have been incinerated by the explosion that
destroyed New York City. Unlike 9-11, there will have been no interval during the attack when those hijacked could make phone calls to loved
ones telling them before they died that the hijackers were radical Islamic extremists. There will be no such phone calls when the attack will not
have been anticipated until the instant the terrorists detonate their improvised nuclear device inside the truck parked on a curb at the Empire
State Building. Nor will there be any possibility of finding any clues, which either were vaporized instantly or are now lying physically
inaccessible under tons of radioactive rubble. Still, the
president, members of Congress, the military, and the public at large will
suspect another attack by our known enemy–Islamic terrorists. The first impulse will be to launch a nuclear strike
on Mecca, to destroy the whole religion of Islam. Medina could possibly be added to the target list just to make the point with crystal clarity.
Yet what would we gain? The moment Mecca and Medina were wiped off the map, the Islamic world – more than 1 billion human beings in
countless different nations – would feel attacked. Nothing would emerge intact after a war between the United States and Islam. The
apocalypse would be upon us. Then, too, we would face an immediate threat from our long-term enemy, the former Soviet
Union. Many in the Kremlin would see this as an opportunity to grasp the victory that had been snatched from them by
Ronald Reagan when the Berlin Wall came down. A missile strike by the Russians on a score of American cities could possibly be preemptive. Would the U.S. strategic defense system be so in shock that immediate retaliation would not be possible? Hardliners in Moscow might
argue that there was never a better opportunity to destroy America. In China, our newer Communist enemies might not care if we could
retaliate. With a population already over 1.3 billion people and with their population not concentrated in a few major cities, the Chinese might
calculate to initiate a nuclear blow on the United States. What if the United States retaliated with a nuclear counterattack upon China? The
Chinese might be able to absorb the blow and recover. The North Koreans might calculate even more recklessly. Why not launch upon America
the few missiles they have that could reach our soil? More confusion and chaos might only advance their position. If Russia,
China, and
the United States could be drawn into attacking one another, North Korea might emerge stronger just because it was
overlooked while the great nations focus on attacking one another. So, too, our supposed allies in Europe might relish the immediate reduction
in power suddenly inflicted upon America.
Solvency
Federal Government Key
Signal
Increased investment is key to send a clear FEDERAL signal- key to solve.
U.S. Port and Inland Waterways Modernization Strategy, 2012 “U.S. Port and Inland Waterways
Modernization Strategy Options for the Future” Institute for Water Resources U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Working Draft 2 April 2012
http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/docs/portswaterways/Port_and_Inland_Waterways_Options_for_the_Future_Worki
ng_Draft_v1_2012_Apr_01.pdf
There will always be a Federal role in the nation’s navigation infrastructure. The need for compliance with the National Environmental Policy
Act, the Clean Water Act and the Endangered Species Act ensures this. However, the
current financial role played by the
Federal government can only be continued with increased Federal funding. The aging infrastructure, especially
on the inland waterways, is becoming increasingly costly to maintain or rehabilitate. The declining Corps budget for construction does not allow
for the capacity expansions needed to meet navigation’s critical needs of the future. As explained in chapter 6, there are many options and
variations of options to be considered. Existing policies and procedures can work if additional funds are provided. New cost sharing rules could
be changed to place more responsibility on the local sponsor. Public private partnerships combined with an infrastructure bank could provide
access to funding for local sponsors. The combinations of these ideas are almost limitless. There is a growing discussion surrounding the need
for new methods to plan, choose, finance and maintain the nation’s navigation infrastructure. In order to move this discussion forward, Congress
and the Administration must take action. Congress
should make clear its preferences for future partnering. What level of
Federal funding will be available for maintaining and expanding the nation’s navigation infrastructure? What alternative types of
partnership options (PPPs Infrastructure Banking) will be available? How can the industry and local sponsor best help Congress achieve this?
What is needed most critically is a clear statement of intent from the Federal government explaining
the type and level of partner it will be in future navigation capacity maintenance and development.
Federal leadership key
Jackson ‘7
USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT LEVERAGING THE STRATEGIC VALUE OF THE U.S. INLAND
WATERWAY SYSTEM by Colonel Donald E. Jackson, Jr. United States Army
The inland waterway system of the United States stands as a minimally exploited system that,
if optimized, could help eliminate the congestion of overland transport, pollution, and provide a
low cost alternative to long haul passages.78 The USDOT should aggressively promote inland
waterways as an effective alternative to overland transportation. U.S. Inland Waterway
System stakeholders must embrace emerging technologies that more efficiently manage traffic
on inland waterways to mitigate lock-imposed delays. An intra-governmental approach to
managing national water resources must be better integrated at the local, state, and federal
level, eliminating political impediments to system efficiency. Integrated planning to effectively
link the national transportation network with state and local intermodal infrastructure must be
encouraged and managed strategically. The federal government must lead efforts to develop
adequate funding strategies, seeking public-private collaboration, to maintain the investment
streams that support new construction, operations, and maintenance of the inland waterway
system, making it a reliable and affordable means of transportation in the future. Inland
waterway infrastructure must be prioritized and resources focused on the most value added
gateways supporting objectives of the national freight transportation system. Overall the system
should be repaired and modernized and, in certain cases, enlarged to meet the industry
standard requirement for locks of 1200 feet. The federal government and the USDOT, using an
interagency approach, must continue to develop transportation strategies that encourage the
balanced growth of each industry sector, leading leads to more effective integration of inland
waterway transportation. The USTRANSCOM deployment and distribution model should be
commercially replicated at the national level to highlight alternative freight transportation
planning opportunities that leverage the capabilities of each transport mode. The USDOT must
provide shippers incentives for increased use of inland waterways, expanding container-onbarge
opportunities to alleviate congestion and increase capacity of the freight transportation system
at the national level.
Federal action key
IWUB ‘10
http://www.waterwaysusers.us/Annual_Report_FY10.pdf, “INLAND WATERWAYS USERS BOARD
24th ANNUAL REPORT”, October 2010
We now await the Administration’s response. More than six months have passed since the
report was formally submitted to the Assistant Secretary and we remain optimistic that the
Administration will recognize the compelling case we have outlined and will soon respond in a
thoughtful and meaningful manner that befits the gravitas embodied in the IMTS Team report.
The strengthening of our inland navigation system, indeed our country, depend on such a
response. The lack of a serious and timely response from the Administration will cause this
industry, the global business community, and the public to question our country’s
commitment to maintaining transportation options needed to keep and attract new industry,
while preserving the treasured waterways of our nation for its citizens.
Fed gov is key – can adapt and create consistency
IWR 12 (US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, June 20, “U.S. Port and Inland
Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post-Panamax Vessels”, pg. 20)
A modernization
strategy should be part of a national transportation strategy that considers multi‐modal connectivity
and capacity of the intermodal freight transportation corridors. This would necessitate consistency
with other Federal programs such as DOT Tiger Grants.
There are many non‐fi
that will most likely require impact avoidance or replacement of lost environmental quality. Total avoidance of impact may be indicated where
the effects are of such national significance that development of transportation infrastructure at the proposed site should not be supported at
and enhance
national securi
to serving only a
When infrastructure projects are planned, designed and implemented, they should
explicitly include the concept of adaptive management (i.e., the identification of sequential decisions
and implementation based on new knowledge and thresholds) within a risk management framework.
Federal action key
Jackson ‘7
USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT LEVERAGING THE STRATEGIC VALUE OF THE U.S. INLAND
WATERWAY SYSTEM by Colonel Donald E. Jackson, Jr. United States Army
Transportation infrastructure requires a strategic-level approach to management, funding,
and integration. National policy makers must balance the strengths and limitations of each
transportation industry sector, ensuring their collective capabilities support projected U.S.
economic and national security requirements. Based upon the capabilities inherent in each of
these industries, supporting infrastructure must be available, expanded, or modernized that
enable them to meet current and future transportation requirements. American transportation
infrastructure requires continual investment to remain a viable means of moving freight, as
well as routine maintenance, periodic modernization, and expansion to maintain adequate
operability. The federal government has a Constitutional responsibility to provide adequate
transportation infrastructure that supports the nation’s economy, as a means of regulating
interstate commerce. While federal responsibilities for transportation infrastructure are
collectively substantial, they are, however, widely disbursed and not well coordinated.6
Congress is responsible for synchronizing the efforts of industry stakeholders and government
entities, making tough decisions on resource allocations that collectively meet the strategic
requirements of the transportation system. This effort requires both an interagency and
intragovernmental approach.
Solves Economic collapse
Increasing inland waterway infrastructure support prevents economic collapse.
IBEW, ‘6 [“Another Bad Idea: Outsource Federal Lock and Dam Operations,” April 26,
http://www.ibew.org/articles/06daily/0604/060426_dams.htm]
“We maintain that the locking decisions made by the lock and dam operators inherently affect the safety and private property of U.S. citizens,”
said a letter by the lawmakers to Army Secretary Francis Harvey. “Any
accident could severely damage the lock and
dam sections of our critical infrastructure, which are vital to the United States’ economic and defense
needs.”
States no jurisdiction
States don’t have jurisdiction over plan
Stern 12 (Congressional Research Service, Anaylst in Natural Resources Policy, April 12, “Inland
waterways: recent proposals and issues for congress”, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41430.pdf, pg.
1)
Through the early 1800s, inland waterway development was left to the states, until the SupremeCourt
gave the United States authority over interstate commerce in 1824. 4 Shortly thereafter, the federal
government began to provide funding and support to these waterways to improve interstate and
international commerce. Improvements in other forms of transportation, including rail and highway, have decreased reliance on
inland waterways as a means of commercial freight transportation, but these waterways remain a significant component in the nation’s
transportation mix for many bulk commodities.
Not all states effected by waterways
ASCE no date (American Society of Civil Engineers, America’s Infrasstructure Report Card,
http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/fact-sheet/inland-waterways#conditions)
Forty-one states, including all states east of the Mississippi River and 16 state capitals, are served by commercially
navigable waterways. The U.S. inland waterway system consists of 12,000 miles of navigable waterways in four systems—
the Mississippi River, the Ohio River Basin, the Gulf Intercoastal Waterway, and the Pacific Coast systems—that connect with most
The system comprises 257 locks, which raise and lower river traffic between stretches
of water of different levels.
states in the U.S.
Reforming funding solves
Reforming funding structures solves
Buchsbaum ‘12
http://www.uppermon.org/news/Other/CA-Locked_Out-Feb2012.html, “LOCKED Out: Aging Locks and
Dams Jeopardize Inland Waterways: Is a catastrophic cascading systems failure about to occur along the
Ohio River?”, Coal Age Magazine February 2012 By Lee Buchsbaum, Associate Editor and Photographer
In an effort to try to fix this failing model, a group of industry stakeholders including the Coast
Guard, the Waterways Council and others sat down and hammered out a plan. Titled the
“Inland Marine Transportation Systems Capital Projects Business Model,” the plan “would allow
us to complete 25 projects in a 20-year period as opposed to seven projects over a 20-year
period if we go down the current path. And I have serious doubts that they’ll even be able to
accomplish the seven projects at the pace they’re going,” said Darling. The new plan provides
for additional revenues for the trust fund, it re-prioritizes the nation’s investments, and
recognizes and accounts for all the beneficiaries of the water systems, and “it protects
commercial users that cost-share the construction projects,” said Darling. The development
plan has five elements. The first is to increase Federal funding for the program from the
current $160 million a year to $380 million. Second, it suggests a way to prioritize the projects
so that those that are ready to go and provide the most benefit would be funded first. Third, it
proposes reforming the core project delivery process that now takes 40 years to achieve
“what we used to be able to achieve in four years. And finally, it proposes to increase the
current diesel fuel tax of $0.20 a gallon to $0.69 a gallon to help pay for these projects,” said
Toohey. Indeed, the waterways users would “volunteer to pay more money for an increased
fuel tax,” said Toohey. Stakeholders hope that by taking a page out of the Warren Buffet
playbook and showing a willingness to increase their collective exposure, maybe the
government will follow suit. But so far, as the Great Recession wanes on, Congress’ reception
has been decidedly mixed. “Members that understand the importance of investment and
infrastructure support it and those that are just, ‘no new taxes,’ of course oppose this,” said
Toohey. While industry is prepared to raise its stake, the only thing that can really save the
existing system are more Federal funds. “It really is going to take convincing Congress that we
need more infrastructure investment. This is not a discussion about raising taxes. It’s about
having the resources to invest so that our economy can thrive. Congressman Ed Whitfield (RKY) has agreed to be a champion for the proposal in House of Representatives. For the sake of
the Inland Waterways system and to maintain the health and viability of our nation’s industrial
heartland, we need to pass the Whitfield bill,” said Toohey.
Fuel Tax solves
Fuel tax solves best
IWUB ‘10
http://www.waterwayscouncil.org/WCIExtras/IMTS_IWUB_Report.pdf, “Inland Marine Transportation
Systems (IMTS) Capital Projects Business Model”, Final Report Revision 1, April 13, 2010
The IMTS CIS Team also reviewed alternative options for generating revenues for the IWTF.
These options included the current revenue plan consisting of a waterways fuel tax, a user fee,
bonding, and other revenue sources, such as state funding or other beneficiaries of the IMTS.
The Team acknowledged that the current revenue-raising system is a workable, understood,
acceptable, and auditable system for collecting the waterways industry’s share of the IMTS
capitalization costs and that the additional revenues required in the Teams’ consensus
recommendations should best be raised through an increase in the current fuel tax. The
recommended program would require a 30–45 percent increase in the current fuel tax (a
$0.06–$0.09 per gallon increase). The 30 percent increase is based on an assumption that,
under current law, anticipated future revenues would equal the average $85 million annual
amount generated over the past five years, while the 45 percent increase is based on FY 2009
actual revenues of $76 million.
Cost-efficient
IWUB ‘10
http://www.waterwayscouncil.org/WCIExtras/IMTS_IWUB_Report.pdf, “Inland Marine Transportation
Systems (IMTS) Capital Projects Business Model”, Final Report Revision 1, April 13, 2010
The capital investment strategy and process improvements described above are expected to
result in measurable benefits to the IMTS. Cost growth that has become typical with IMTS
projects will be reduced. Using the Selected Case Study Report as a basis, cost growth on IMTS
projects under the in-place business model can be as high as 60 percent of the initial cost. Of
that amount, about 30 percent is attributable to inefficient funding and 70 percent to other
factors, such as differing site conditions or design changes. Another benefit to the capital
investment strategy is avoiding additional benefits foregone on construction projects by
completing current ongoing projects efficiently and on time. Additionally, it is important to
monitor and measure project performance as the capital investment strategy is implemented to
document the benefits of the program with this improved process. The Team estimates the
benefits of the recommended program to be the following: The avoided cost growth due to
inefficient funding over the 20-year capital investment program is conservatively estimated to
be between $350 million and $1,180 million. Benefits foregone to date at only two of the
larger construction projects, Olmsted and Lower Mon, are calculated to be $5.2 billion. With
the 20-year capital investment program, more than $2.8 billion in additional benefits foregone
would be avoided when looking only at the projects that are currently under construction and
the schedule for completing these projects under the current program.
Tax increases don’t decrease use
IWUB ‘10
http://www.waterwayscouncil.org/WCIExtras/IMTS_IWUB_Report.pdf, “Inland Marine Transportation
Systems (IMTS) Capital Projects Business Model”, Final Report Revision 1, April 13, 2010
In light of the fact that waterborne transportation is less costly, more energy-efficient, more
environmentally friendly, and safer than alternative transportation modes, cost-sharing and
revenue enhancement policy should reward and not discourage increased use of the inland
waterways system to help relieve growing congestion problems on the nation’s highways.
Cost effective
Waterways are the most efficient mode of shipping
Jackson ‘7
USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT LEVERAGING THE STRATEGIC VALUE OF THE U.S. INLAND
WATERWAY SYSTEM by Colonel Donald E. Jackson, Jr. United States Army
U.S. Inland Waterways contribute to efficient management on a national level by offering an
excellent alternative form of transport for a variety of non-traditional commodities. The
inland waterway system is an efficient, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly way to
move large volumes of bulk commodities, not requiring a fast transit time, over long distances.
Towboats and barges do not compete with trucks and commuters in urban areas. Barging
operations continue to improve, allowing more cargo to be moved with less effort. USACE
promotes inland waterways as the most efficient mode of freight transportation. Towboats
push barges lashed together to form a “tow”. A tow may consist of four or six barges on smaller
waterways up to over 40 barges on the Mississippi River below its confluence with the Ohio
River. A 15-barge tow is the most common barge configuration. Such tows are an extremely
efficient mode of transportation, moving about 22,500 tons of cargo as a single unit. The cargo
capacity of a typical barge is equivalent to that of 15 large railroad cars, or 58 semi-trucks. A
representative 15-barge tow on a main stem waterway moves the same cargo as 870 trucks
stretching 35 miles on the interstate highway system. That same 15-barge tow would require
two 100-car unit trains, extending nearly three miles in length.53 The inland waterway system
is a cost-effective mode of transportation, saving shippers and consumers more than $7.8
billion annually compared to alternate transportation modes.54 Barges transport materials at
relatively low cost per ton. The inland and intracoastal waterway system handles about 300
billion ton-miles of cargo annually, or about 18% of all intercity freight ton-miles.55 This cargo
principally includes raw materials and liquid and bulk primary products, like coal, petroleum,
chemicals, grain, processed metals, cement, sand, and gravel.56 It is the primary artery for more
than half of the nation’s grain and oilseed exports, over 20% of the coal consumed to produce
the electricity we depend upon to run our homes, offices, and industries, and about 22% of
domestic petroleum movements.57 On average, a gallon of fuel allows one ton of cargo to be
shipped 70 miles by truck, 420 miles by rail, and 530 miles by barge.
Increase funding solves
Inland Waterways Capital Development Plan fixes inefficiencies and secures funding
STEPHEN D. LITTLE 11 Chairman, Inland Waterways Users Board President and Chairman of the Board, Crounse Corporation
http://www.cmts.gov/downloads/Summer_2011.pdf#page=50
Unfortunately the current project funding and delivery system is too inefficient,resulting in much wasted
time and money. And while the industry has made significant investment in the reliability of the system
through a diesel fuel tax paid into the Inland Waterways Trust Fund, far too few projects have been
completed. Those that are undertaken can stretch out over decades, wasting taxpayer dollars and losing transportation cost-savings for our
national economy. For example, the Olmsted Locks and Dam project on the Ohio River is estimated to save
shippers $500 million annually in fuel, labor, and shipping expenses. Instead of providing that relief,
however, the project has dragged on due to under-funding, changing require ments, and continually
rising costs. The project was initially expected to cost $775 million over 12 years and is now projected
at $2.1 billion over 26 years. 2 The Plan To address this type of problem, the Inland Waterways Capital
Development Plan: · Proposes a national prioritized list of navigation projects based on objective
criteria such as economic benefit and project condition. · Offers a path to complete 25 navigation
projects in 20 years, on time and on budget,rather than the six projects under the current business
model. · Seeks standardization and design centers of expertise. · Creates jobs and allows for increased
exports to market. · Better utilizes taxpayer dollars to drive commerce. The proposal includes a
project-by-project cost-sharing cap to provide protection to the trust fund from unreasonable cost
escalation and project delays. It places additional emphasis on the need to produce more reliable
project cost estimates in the underlying decision document, which would allow for effective
management of projects within the identified cost estimates and schedules. To date, the plan is supported by
more than 200 industry stakeholders including national, state,regional, and local organizations and companies. They include the U.S. Chamber
of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers, Transportation Research Board/Marine Board, American Land Conservancy, National
Audubon Society, National Corn GrowersAssociation, National Grain and Feed Association, Steel Manufacturers Association, National Mining
Association, and National Council of Farm Cooperatives. To bring vital navigation projects online and completed in an efficient way, positive
change must start now. Our inland waterways are crucial to the entire maritime industry, our nation’s economy, and especially to those who
depend on those inland waterways to transport goods efficiently and in the most environmentally friendly way possible.
Solves existing and new projects
IWUB ‘10
http://www.waterwayscouncil.org/WCIExtras/IMTS_IWUB_Report.pdf, “Inland Marine Transportation
Systems (IMTS) Capital Projects Business Model”, Final Report Revision 1, April 13, 2010
Under the $320 million per year funding level option for new construction, the investment
strategy can address current ongoing construction needs and includes new construction starts
for several additional projects. When developed in tandem with the $60 million funding level
for major rehabilitation projects, this new funding program will begin to significantly address
the component renewal and reliability of existing infrastructure, as well as enable the
necessary additions and expansions to improve the flow of commercial navigation through key
waterways. Table 4-9 lists those projects included under the proposed funding level.
Solvency: Congestion
Investment prevents congestion, air pollution and emissions, and starvation- it’s key
to jobs, economic competitiveness, and energy security.
Toohey, 2011 Michael J. Toohey, president and chief executive of Waterways Council Inc. in Arlington, Va,
Waterways Council Inc., “JOC TENS: U.S. National Policy Should Include Capital Investment for Inland
Waterways Infrastructure” September 26, www.waterwayscouncil.org
America’s inland waterways system is the silent workhorse of our export market, moving some 60 percent of
the nation’s grain to the world market. This system also transports 22 percent of our domestic petroleum and petroleum
products, and 20 percent of the coal used in our nation’s electric power generation, along with many other vital commodities. This
segment of the transportation network is often out of sight, out of mind, but without this critically important mode, our nation’s
roadways would clog and crumble from the weight of those commodity movements, our air quality would be reduced
from increased emissions, our consumption of and cost for energy would go up significantly, our economic
competitiveness in the world market would erode, and our quality of life would be affected. The U nited S tates
needs a national policy that includes the waterways and its infrastructure, and helps put Americans back to work
at the same time. Here are 10 ways why: 1. Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! The most important advantage our waterways can bring to America is
family wage jobs. There are currently more than 20 navigation projects authorized by Congress that could begin putting U.S. workers back on
the job. Let us invest in our nation’s lock and dam system today for a more prosperous tomorrow. 2. Exports for U.S. products:
President Obama has called for the doubling of our nation’s exports over the next five years. A noble goal that will increase our country’s
prosperity, yes, but without
an efficient waterways infrastructure to move increased volumes of grain, for example, this
will not be an achievable goal. 3. Traffic congestion relief: One 15-barge tow of dry bulk cargo keeps 1,050 trucks off our
nation’s already overly congested highways, or another 216 railcars rolling through our communities. 4. Fresher air: The inland waterways
transportation sector has a lower carbon footprint because it generates fewer carbon dioxide emissions than rail or truck for each ton of cargo
compared to transporting that same cargo by these other modes. 5. Energy efficiency: Barges on our inland system can move one ton of
cargo 576 miles on one gallon of fuel — more the 100 miles more than rail transport and 400 miles more than truck transport. This matters now
more than ever as we seek ways to be less dependent on foreign oil. 6. Bolstering our economy: 624 million tons of cargo moves
annually on the inland waterways, equaling around $70 billion that goes back into the U.S. economy. And more than $9 is returned to the nation
in transportation cost savings for every $1 that is invested in a navigation project. 7. Multibeneficiaries: The inland waterways system benefits
many Americans, including those who use it for recreation, municipal and industrial water supply, hydropower and flood control. Many
communities along our inland waterways benefit from economic development opportunities, and private property owners enjoy higher property
values because of the steady pools of water created by locks and dams on our inland waterways. 8. Safest mode: Our fundamental goal is to
return our workers safely home to their families. Thus, inland waterways transportation boasts the lowest injury and fatality rates compared to
rail or truck. Safety-related statistics for all modes of freight transportation show one injury in the inland marine sector for every 125.2 in the rail
sector and 2,171.5 in the highway sector, and one fatality in the inland marine sector for every 22.7 in rail and 155 in highway. 9. Connecting
the country: Our inland waterways system includes 12,000 miles of commercially navigable channels and around 240 lock sites. These inland
marine highways transport commodities to and from 38 states throughout the nation’s heartland and the Pacific Northwest; they serve industrial
and agricultural centers, and facilitate imports and exports at gateway ports along the Gulf Coast. Just like Lewis and Clark’s discovery
expedition to find new trade routes for a young America, our waterways keep America moving today and will do so tomorrow as well. 10.
Capacity to feed the world: Our capital development plan for the United States’ navigable waterways system is
building for the future. Unlike the truck or rail industries, we can accommodate the Panama Canal expansion, containers on
barge, and the increased exports that will help feed the world’s inhabitants, expected to grow to 9
billion by 2050.
Key to solve price spikes
Closure or delays due to faulty locks and dams would create massive economic
pressure and severe price spikes for US exported food
Professor Bruce McCarl et al, 11
C. James Kruse, Director, Center for Ports & Waterways, Annie Protopapas, Associate Research Scientist Texas Transportation Institute The
Texas A&M University System College Station, Texas; And Zafarbek Ahmedov, Graduate Research Assistant; Bruce McCarl, Professor; Ximing
Wu, Associate Professor; James Mjelde, Professor Department of Agriculture Texas A&M; AMERICA’S LOCKS & DAMS: “A TICKING TIME BOMB
FOR AGRICULTURE?” FINAL REPORT December 2011,
Agriculture accounted for 22% of all transported tonnage and 31% of all ton-miles in the United States
in 2007.1 The surface transportation system in the U.S. is central to agriculture’s ability to compete in
domestic and world markets. The rapidly deteriorating condition of the nation’s lock and dam
infrastructure imperils the ability of the waterborne transportation system to provide a service that
will enable U.S. agricultural producers to continue to compete. Should a catastrophic failure of lock
and dam infrastructure occur, agricultural producers—and consequently the American consumer—will
suffer severe economic distress. This research analyzed and evaluated data and information that will illustrate this vulnerability at
a micro level rather than the traditional macro level. The task of transporting agricultural commodities from the farm
to first handlers and processors and ultimately to domestic and international retail markets and ports
requires a highly developed, integrated transportation network, of which marine transportation is a
vital component. A high percentage of these commodities pass through one or more locks on their
way to market. Should a waterway be closed due to one or more lock failures, the resultant increase
in costs that would be incurred in utilizing truck or rail transportation would decrease or even
eliminate the cost advantage of U.S. Midwestern producers. This would be especially detrimental to
export shipments. From 2005 through 2009, 87–91% of corn exported through lower Mississippi ports arrived at the ports via barge; for
soybeans, the percentage was 87–89%.2 This research examined the condition of locks on key segments of the nation’s waterways, analyzed
their usage, determined which are most likely to suffer catastrophic failure, and estimated the impact at the local level based on projected
freight flows. The geographical scope of the research included:
Breakdown of the locks would spike international prices for soybeans, especially china
Farmweek 04 EnvironmenT 'Overwhelming' support shown at lock hearings Wednesday, June 23,
2004 http://farmweek.ilfb.org/viewdocument.asp?did=6755&drvid=104&r=0.6584741
“The bill introduced in the Senate has gotten very strong bipartisan support because of the ag-labor coalition.” Tolman noted “fairly
regular breakdowns” at outdated locks have an almost immediate impact on rail and truck freight
rates, boosting overall grain transportation rates. An upsurge of nearly 425 million bushels of corn exports over the past
two years supports Corps projections of growing grain transportation demand, he said. Tolman sees significant potential in
China’s likely transition from grain exporter to importer, which also would create market “vacuums”
in Southeast Asia “that really only the United States can fill.” Expansion of China’s river infrastructure to accommodate
oceangoing “Panamax” vessels offers major shipping advantages and new inland access for U.S. exporters. At the same time, Wilken said largescale navigation improvements along South America’s Amazon and Paraguay rivers are spurring northward expansion of Brazilian soybean
production, and could tighten the gap between U.S. and Brazilian ag transportation costs.
Solvency mech- tax credits
Investment tax credits stimulate growth
Department of Transportation, 2011 April America’s Marine Highway Report to Congress,
http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/MARAD_AMH_Report_to_Congress.pdf
Investment tax credits have proven to be an excellent vehicle to stimulate growth, including a
dramatic surge in the solar energy sector, which saw its market grow by 45 percent within two years of
implementing the solar energy investment tax credit (see Solar Energy Industries Association, “Federal Policy Propels U.S. Solar Energy
Industry” 2007 at http://www.seia.org/galleries/pdf/Year_in_Review_2007_sm.pdf).
Investment tax credits would encourage private investment in transportation
infrastructure.
Department of Transportation, 2011 April America’s Marine Highway Report to Congress,
http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/MARAD_AMH_Report_to_Congress.pdf
Investment tax credits are reductions in the tax that companies pay on their profits if they invest in certain types of equipment or infrastructure.
Private companies could receive a tax credit for qualified capital investments to start or expand a
designated Marine Highway Project. Qualified expenditures could include design, construction, or
modification of vessels, development or improvement of shoreside infrastructure, procurement of cargo
handling equipment, intermodal connector development, or any investment that reduces fuel consumption or
emissions for qualified expenditures.160 Direct beneficiaries of investment tax credits would be vessel
owners and operators and shoreside infrastructure owners.
Solvency mech- trust fund
Fix the Inland Waterways Trust Fund.
Critz, 2012 Critz and Doyle Advocate for Investment in Waterways Infrastructure...Fixing Trust Fund is
necessary to repair and modernize region's locks and dams Jun 6, 2012, http://critz.house.gov/press-release/critzand-doyle-advocate-investment-waterways-infrastructurefixing-trust-fund
Congressman Mark S. Critz (PA-12) joined Congressman Mike Doyle (PA-14) today on the House Floor to engage in a colloquy over the
importance of our nation’s inland waterways infrastructure. In particular, the Members
urged for the immediate fix of the
Inland Waterways Trust Fund, which is necessary to repair and modernize the locks and dams on our
river systems. The discussion took place with Congressman Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11) and Congressman Peter Visclosky (IN-01),
Chairman and Ranking Member of House Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development, during the House of
Representatives consideration of H.R. 5325, the Fiscal Year 2013 Energy and Water Development Appropriations Act. “ We
need to
invest in America and keep our federal waterways open for business,” said Congressman Critz. “The Inland
Waterways System is far too important to allow it to continue to languish with inadequate funding
and crumbling infrastructure…and I look forward to working with the Chairman, the Ranking Member and Mr. Doyle to find a
solution to this urgent need.”
Solvency- environment
The plan is environmentally friendly- reduces GHGs.
Martin, 2009 Cornel Martin, President and CEO, Waterways Council, "Inland Waterways Investment Is Critical
to Economic Recovery - and it's Green” 2009
waterwayscouncil.org/Media%2520Center/articles/Page_%2520from_Cornel_OPED_Marex.pdf
The New Year brings much uncertainty about the economy, the future of certain industries and businesses, the housing market, and a new
administration’s plans. But
one thing that is certain is the value of our inland waterways transportation
system for providing a less costly, fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly way to move our
nation’s “building block” commodities, both domestically and for export. Our inland waterways system transports
about 20 percent of our nation’s coal to generate electricity in utility plants and around 22 percent of our domestic petroleum products. This
system is the primary artery for more than half our grain and oilseed exports. All told, more than 625 million tons of freight commodities valued
at more than $70 billion move on America’s inland navigation system annually. And with worldwide trade expected to double over the next
decade and with our highways and railways facing serious capacity issues, our inland rivers may be even more critical tomorrow than they are
today for transporting products efficiently. There are other considerations as well. A
new study by the National Waterways
Foundation underscores the “green” value of this transport mode. Inland waterways relieve
congestion on our already over-crowded highways and railways. One jumbo barge has the same
capacity as 70 trucks or 16 rail cars. A typical 15-barge tow on our nation’s rivers is equal to 1,050
trucks – in other words, just one barge movement equals 1,050 truck movements! To sustain these many benefits and stimulate
economic recovery for our nation, investment in our inland navigation system of locks and dams is critical.
Solvency- congestion
Solves- congestion.
Department of Transportation, 2011 April America’s Marine Highway Report to Congress,
http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/MARAD_AMH_Report_to_Congress.pdf
America’s Marine Highway can play a role in alleviating this congestion on some of our surface transportation
corridors, with its abundant capacity to carry freight to and from many locations across the country. This is particularly true
because many of the areas of greatest land-based congestion, as shown in Figure 1, are also those areas that
Marine Highway operators could best serve through ocean, inland waterway, and lake access. While important
at a national level, the Marine Highway can be especially effective in reducing congestion for all users along certain coastal surface corridors
(e.g., the I-5 (Pacific), I-95 (Atlantic), and I-10 (Gulf) highway corridors), including at border crossings into Canada, and in urban areas with
large ports. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has identified congestion around large urban ports as a major source of inefficiency
in the national transportation system. The GAO notes the following: The major challenges to freight mobility share a common theme –
congestion. National
studies point to such problems as overcrowded highways and freight-specific
‘chokepoints’ that stifle effective intermodal transfer of cargoes. All 10 ports GAO studied faced similar congestion-related problems. For
example, many of the ports are in dense urban areas, limiting the ability to expand rail yards, roadways, and other infrastructure. 41 The Marine
Highway system has existing capacity to transfer containers and trailers away from congested highways and rail systems that serve ports to less
congested ports and inland terminals. In 2000, FHWA estimated that each vehicle-mile traveled by trucks adds between $0.18 and $0.33
(reflecting typical or average conditions) to the cost of congestion on urban roadways; this value will only increase as congestion becomes more
severe. 42 Reducing this source of congestion can therefore have significant value to the public. In addition to reducing surface congestion, the
movement of cargo to inland terminals can benefit exporters and importers, many of which have found that their businesses are made easier if
they can assemble export shipments or deploy imports at points free from the congestion. 43 Perhaps most importantly, it
can offer
shippers reliable and predictable service that is essential to just-in-time inventory systems. The
America’s Marine Highway Program is designed to identify the most promising water corridors for the movement of passengers and
freight to help relieve surface congestion and to facilitate the transition to greater use of this underutilized national asset.
Solvency- generic
More funding is key to maintain and meet additional future demands.
U.S. Port and Inland Waterways Modernization Strategy, 2012 “U.S. Port and Inland Waterways
Modernization Strategy Options for the Future” Institute for Water Resources U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Working Draft 2 April 2012
http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/docs/portswaterways/Port_and_Inland_Waterways_Options_for_the_Future_Worki
ng_Draft_v1_2012_Apr_01.pdf
To fully meet the challenges of and realize the opportunities presented by increased use of postPanamax vessels in global trade, the
existing
capacity of the nation’s ports and waterways must be maintained and additional capacity must be
built. Both paths require a significant financial commitment. The current level of USACE navigation
funding is not adequate to meet the critical modernization needs of the nation and take advantage of
these opportunities. Available financial options for meeting these needs vary from an increased Federal commitment to the divestiture
of the Federal financial role. There is a growing consensus that the existing budgeting process and budget levels are not adequate to meet the
critical needs of future modernization. The current process collects revenues for funding the Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund (HMTF),
allocating those dollars to USACE navigation programs according to Federal budget priorities and assigned budget ceilings and providing
additional funding for channel deepening with revenues from the general treasury. With the continuing revenue stream dedicated to the HMTF
and the fund’s reserves, financial support for maintenance of existing channels could be secured for the near term. However, into the next
decade the current processes (and budget ceilings) are not expected to provide significant funds for additional necessary channel deepening
projects.
Inland waterways can be more efficient but locks need to be modernized.
ASCE, 2009 The American Society of Civil Engineers, “Inland Waterways 2009 Rating D-“
http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/fact-sheet/inland-waterways
Inland Waterways
The average tow barge can carry the equivalent of 870 tractor trailer loads. Of the
257 locks still in use on the nation's inland waterways, 30 were built in the 1800s and another 92 are
more than 60 years old. The average age of all federally owned or operated locks is nearly 60 years,
well past their planned design life of 50 years. The cost to replace the present system of locks is estimated at more than $125
billion ^2.
Solvency- efficiency
Key to economic efficiency and competitiveness.
Department of Transportation, 2011 April America’s Marine Highway Report to Congress,
http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/MARAD_AMH_Report_to_Congress.pdf
The efficiency of the surface transportation system underlies the efficiency of the entire national economy.
As recently stated by the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission: Transportation is the thread that knits the
country together, providing the mobility that is such an important part of overall quality of life and is so deeply embedded in our culture and
history. Highways, transit, rail, and water systems provide unprecedented access to jobs, recreation, education, health care, and the many other
activities that sustain and enrich the lives of American families. 22 The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of USDOT reports that the
U.S. surface transportation system moved an average of 53 million tons of freight each day (including bulk movements on water) worth $36
billion in 2002, and estimates that by 2008 this freight tonnage had increased by 11.2 percent, reaching 58.9 million tons per day. Nearly 10
percent of this tonnage is imports and exports. 23 The surface transportation system also accommodated more than 13.6 billion passenger miles
each day in 2007. 24 Although the surface transportation system has handled traffic levels exceeding original design plans, demand
for
freight and passenger movement has grown more rapidly than capacity for the last several decades. The rapid
growth in demand and the resulting capacity constraints became evident in parts of the U.S. freight transportation system during the 1990s and
became a growing source of national concern particularly in the last decade. As noted recently by the Transportation Research Board, rising
freight congestion threatens to impair economic productivity with the most visible congestion
occurring at certain important nodes of the system and their surrounding areas, including the largest seaports
and at terminal operations at inland hubs like Chicago. 25 Similarly, the issue of congestion for travelers on highways, transit, and rail systems
has become severe in certain urban areas that are the major contributors to the nation’s economic productivity. For commuters, traffic
congestion can seriously impinge on quality of life. America’s
Marine Highway is available to bring significant freight
congestion relief along certain corridors. A study for USDOT estimated that there were a total of approximately 78.2 million
trailer loads of highway and rail intermodal cargo that moved between origins and destinations 500 miles apart along the U.S. contiguous coasts
in 2003. 26 This long-haul coastal truck and intermodal traffic accounted for 15 percent of total 527 million trailer loads of U.S. intercity truck
and intermodal rail traffic in 2003. These movements do not include empty trailer movements or the container and trailer traffic moving on
inland surface freight corridors that are also served by the U.S. inland waterway system. Moreover, they do not include potential freight on
short-haul Marine Highway services. 27 As will be discussed in more detail below, congestion at major ports can occur as freight volumes
increase, as was demonstrated early in the last decade when some ports experienced double-digit year-on-year growth in international freight
volumes. One benefit of expanding the Marine Highway system is that international
containers could be transferred at
major ports to and from Marine Highway services, bypassing the need to use congested urban
landside access routes. Vessel operators serving purely domestic trades could bypass deep draft ports altogether, also reducing
congestion at these ports. Most of the nation’s smaller ports can handle substantial growth in container movements (subject to acquiring
specialized equipment) with little or no congestion at the ports or on adjacent roads. MARAD has not yet calculated the potential volume of
Marine Highway movements of cargo through and around congested ports in U.S. markets, but such movements
constitute a
major share of the container traffic moved by water in Europe. Several recent startup U.S. Marine Highway services
have or will specialize in the transshipment of international containers, including an Oakland to Stockton and West Sacramento, CA service and
a Norfolk to Richmond, VA service (see later report section on Other Progress – Marine Highway Services). It is unlikely that Marine Highway
services will offer a significant contribution to the longdistance movement of passengers within the United States given the relatively low speed
of water service. However, passenger
ferry services between or within highly congested cities can provide
important relief to local traffic congestion and needed transportation redundancy for emergency
situations. Urban areas account for the great majority of U.S. traffic congestion.
Solves: Electricity
a. Dam or lock failure would drastically increase the cost of electricity and ripples
would be felt throughout the economy
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/12078/ 1217742-113.stm]
A Corps-commissioned study produced in October estimated a lock
or dam failure that closed the Lower Mon to traffic
could increase electricity costs up to $1 billion annually. The figure covers only what businesses and
consumers could pay and not how those price increases would ripple through the economy. But Mr.
Harder, who disclosed the $1 billion estimate at an industry meeting in Pittsburgh in October, said costs would include power plants paying
more to move coal by truck or rail. He said an
extended closure could cause some power plants to shut down,
increasing the cost of electricity for about 21 million people along the East Coast.
b. Low cost electricity is a critical component of the U.S. economy.
EEI, ‘6 [Edison Electric Institute, “Rising Electricity Costs: A Challenge for Consumers, Regulators, and
Utilities,” May,
http://www.eei.org/whatwedo/PublicPolicyAdvocacy/StateRegulation/Documents/rising_electricity_costs.pdf]
Electricity is the lifeblood of the U.S. economy. It powers our homes, offices, and industries; provides
communications, entertainment, and medical services; powers computers, technology, and the
Internet; and runs various forms of transportation. Not only is electricity the most flexible and most controllable form of
energy, its versatility is unparalleled. Clearly, electricity is a crucial commodity we all take for granted. We scarcely
think about it, unless we don’t have it. Fortunately, almost without exception, electricity is there for us when we flip the switch—Americans
enjoy the benefits of the world’s most reliable electric system. What’s more, continuing advances in more efficient electric technologies make
electricity cleaner and more valuable. And still, it remains one of the true “bargains” among crucial U.S. commodities. Today,
electricity
costs are generally inexpensive, comprising a modest part of most customers’ monthly expenses.
Solvency- economy
Inland waterways are key to economic recovery.
Paul Davidson May 20th, 2012, USA TODAY, “USA’s creaking infrastructure holds back economy”
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-05-20/creaking-infrastructure/55096396/1
Inland waterways quietly keep the nation's economy flowing as they transport $180 billion of coal,
steel, chemicals and other goods each year — a sixth of U.S. freight — across 38 states. Yet, an
antiquated system of locks and dams threatens the timely delivery of those goods daily. Locks and
dams raise or lower barges from one water level to the next, but breakdowns are frequent. For example,
the main chamber at a lock on the Ohio River near Warsaw, Ky., is being fixed. Maneuvering 15-barge tows into a much smaller backup
chamber has increased the average delay at the lock from 40 minutes to 20 hours, including waiting time. The outage, which began last July and
is expected to end in August, will cost American Electric Power and its customers $5.5 million as the utility ferries coal and other supplies along
the river for itself and other businesses, says AEP senior manager Marty Hettel. As the economy picks up, the
nation's creaking
infrastructure will increasingly struggle to handle the load. That will make products more expensive
as businesses pay more for shipping or maneuver around roadblocks, and it will cause the nation to
lose exports to other countries — both of which are expected to hamper the recovery. "The good news is,
the economy is turning," says Dan Murray, vice president of the American Transportation Research Institute. "The bad news is, we expect
congestion to skyrocket." The ancient lock-and-dam system is perhaps the most egregious example of aging or congested transportation systems
that are being outstripped by demand. Fourteen locks are expected to fail by 2020, costing the economy billions of dollars. Meanwhile, seaports
can't accommodate larger container ships, slowing exports and imports. Highways are too narrow. Bridges are overtaxed. Effects 'sneaking up'
The shortcomings were partly masked during the recession as fewer Americans worked and less freight was shipped, easing traffic on
transportation corridors. But interviews with shippers and logistics companies show delays are starting to lengthen along with the moderately
growing economy. "I call this a stealth attack on our economy," says Janet Kavinoky, executive director of transportation and infrastructure for
the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "It's not like an immediate crisis. It's something that's sneaking up on us." Freight bottlenecks and other
congestion cost about $200 billion a year, or 1.6% of U.S. economic output, according to a report last year by Building America's Future
Educational Fund, a bipartisan coalition of elected officials. The chamber of commerce estimates such costs are as high as $1 trillion annually,
or 7% of the economy.
The plan is key to jobs and the economy.
Department of Transportation, 2011 April America’s Marine Highway Report to Congress,
http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/MARAD_AMH_Report_to_Congress.pdf
America’s Marine Highway can support the creation and sustainment of desirable jobs for Americans. These
jobs are provided through direct employment in marine transportation services and shipbuilding, as well as other
services that support marine transportation. Water transportation positions are beneficial to both workers and the nation. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that earnings for water transportation positions are higher than most other occupations with similar
educational requirements for entry-level positions. 28 As of 2008, the nation’s domestic and international water transportation industry
supported approximately 65,200 direct jobs, with an additional 97,000 jobs in port-related activities and 104,500 jobs in shipbuilding and repair.
29 The water transportation industry generated some $36.1 billion in gross output in 2007, of which $10.7 billion was value added. 30 Many of
the water transportation jobs exist in the inland waterway and coastal systems moving bulk products to our gateway ports. Marine Highway
services can take many forms, ranging from self-propelled vessels operating between coastal ports to tug-and-barge services serving ports along
inland and coastal waterways, and can serve various freight markets and schedules. A typical tug-and-barge service carrying containers between
ports offers employment opportunities for the vessel crew, stevedores, and terminal workers who facilitate the intermodal transfer of cargo to
and from the barges. Such job growth may or may not substitute for jobs in other transportation modes, depending on the markets affected and
the design of the service (see below). The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) is responsible for the credentialing of U.S. mariners. With certain
exceptions, individuals employed on U.S.-flag merchant vessel of 100 gross tons or over must hold a valid Merchant Mariners Credential
(MMC) issued by USCG. 31 The MMC is a form of identification and contains the qualifications that a mariner holds based on training,
experience, and completion of necessary examinations. Beginning April 15, 2009, all mariners holding an active license, certificate of registry,
Merchant Mariner Document (MMD), or MMC issued by USCG must also hold a valid Transportation Worker Identification Credential
(TWIC) issued by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). 32 The TWIC was established by Congress through the Maritime
Transportation Security Act and is administered by TSA and USCG. TWICs are tamper-resistant biometric credentials that are issued to workers
who require unescorted access to secure areas of ports, vessels, and outer continental shelf facilities, and to all credentialed merchant mariners.
Merchant mariners are critical to the national security and economic needs of the nation. In addition to their importance as human resources for
the nation’s transportation system, many play a vital role in for crewing ships during national emergencies and wartime situations (see section
below on The Marine Highway and National Defense). Qualified mariners must be ready and available when a national emergency occurs – the
time required to train new mariners would make it impractical to mobilize U.S. sealift in an emergency if mariners were not already on hand.
The United States is also well-positioned to meet the demand for new mariners. There are seven merchant marine academies in the United
States that graduate over 700 ship officers and engineers annually. 33 Private operators, labor unions, and other associations also provide
training. Over the last decade, at least 19 maritime high schools began operations in the United States. 34 In 2008, MARAD announced a new
curriculum for these schools that will help prepare the next generation of high school graduates for maritime jobs. Expanded use of Marine
Highway services has the potential to generate orders for new vessels. These orders could help to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry and
support the nation’s skilled shipyard labor base through the construction of self-propelled vessels specifically designed for container and trailer
freight movement and passenger trades, such as roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) trailer ships and ferries (see section below on The Marine Highway and
National Defense). The direct number of jobs created per vessel constructed would vary by vessel size and type. Building a larger self-propelled
coastal ship to transport trailers and containers might generate up to 600 job years of direct labor at the shipyard. 35 Indirect jobs (jobs at
steel producers and other suppliers to the shipyard) and induced jobs (jobs supported in the general economy due to
spending of workers’ wages) would add significantly to the overall employment impact. Construction of
Marine Highway vessels built to a standard design and in serial production runs would also reduce
per vessel costs and could lead to more vessel orders and jobs over the longer term. Growth in Marine
Highway activity will also support land-based job opportunities – such as short-haul truck drivers and logistical business
positions at Marine Highway ports. Job creation on vessels and in ports due to the growth of the America’s Marine Highway system
depends largely on the numbers and locations of Marine Highway corridors and services that eventually emerge, future growth of
domestic freight movements, future funding of infrastructure in water- and land-based transportation modes, and the
complex tradeoff of jobs among these modes as one modal system gains proportionately more traffic than another. Ultimately, however,
the principal source of new employment from America’s Marine Highway will be its contribution to the
efficiency and flexibility of the nation’s supply chain, as described in the following sections of this report. By having
access to a reliable transportation alternative that can be expanded at modest cost when compared to surface transportation services, U.S.
businesses can better react to changing supply chain circumstances, such as rising fuel costs, and
thereby realize productivity gains and improved profitability. Profitable and productive businesses
experiencing growth are the chief sources of new demand for workers throughout the economy.
Modernizing inland waterway infrastructure would immediately add new jobs.
Martin, 2009 Cornel Martin, President and CEO, Waterways Council, "Inland Waterways Investment Is Critical
to Economic Recovery - and it's Green” 2009
waterwayscouncil.org/Media%2520Center/articles/Page_%2520from_Cornel_OPED_Marex.pdf
Last November Waterways
Council, Inc. (WCI) submitted testimony to Congress urging the inclusion of $1.5$2.0 billion for the nation’s critical lock-and-dam infrastructure system under the second economic stimulus
package focused on infrastructure investment, job creation, and economic recovery. WCI specifically urged Congress to fund a
total of 16 congressionally-supported, lock-and-dam modernization projects with approximately $1-$1.5 billion
that could productively and quickly (perhaps within 90 days of enactment) expedite job-creating
construction work associated with the projects. It also requested an additional $500 million to be appropriated in the stimulus bill for productive,
high-priority, employment-enhancing operation and maintenance (O&M) work on the inland waterway system. At press time it was unclear
when the full economic stimulus package would be presented or what priority would be given to our nation’s inland waterways infrastructure,
but we will continue to urge our leaders in Congress and the new Administration to recognize the importance of our nation’s inland navigation
system and address its critical needs. America’s inland navigation system offers our country an opportunity to compete in the world market, but
if we don’t make necessary investments now, our future as a world leader is in jeopardy.
Shipbuilding- solvency
The plan is key to the shipbuilding industry.
Department of Transportation, 2011 April America’s Marine Highway Report to Congress,
http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/MARAD_AMH_Report_to_Congress.pdf
America’s Marine Highway can support the creation and sustainment of desirable jobs for Americans. These
jobs are provided through direct employment in marine transportation services and shipbuilding, as well as other
services that support marine transportation. Water transportation positions are beneficial to both workers and the nation. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that earnings for water transportation positions are higher than most other occupations with similar
educational requirements for entry-level positions. 28 As of 2008, the nation’s domestic and international water transportation industry
supported approximately 65,200 direct jobs, with an additional 97,000 jobs in port-related activities and 104,500 jobs in shipbuilding and repair.
29 The water transportation industry generated some $36.1 billion in gross output in 2007, of which $10.7 billion was value added. 30 Many of
the water transportation jobs exist in the inland waterway and coastal systems moving bulk products to our gateway ports. Marine Highway
services can take many forms, ranging from self-propelled vessels operating between coastal ports to tug-and-barge services serving ports along
inland and coastal waterways, and can serve various freight markets and schedules. A typical tug-and-barge service carrying containers between
ports offers employment opportunities for the vessel crew, stevedores, and terminal workers who facilitate the intermodal transfer of cargo to
and from the barges. Such job growth may or may not substitute for jobs in other transportation modes, depending on the markets affected and
the design of the service (see below). The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) is responsible for the credentialing of U.S. mariners. With certain
exceptions, individuals employed on U.S.-flag merchant vessel of 100 gross tons or over must hold a valid Merchant Mariners Credential
(MMC) issued by USCG. 31 The MMC is a form of identification and contains the qualifications that a mariner holds based on training,
experience, and completion of necessary examinations. Beginning April 15, 2009, all mariners holding an active license, certificate of registry,
Merchant Mariner Document (MMD), or MMC issued by USCG must also hold a valid Transportation Worker Identification Credential
(TWIC) issued by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). 32 The TWIC was established by Congress through the Maritime
Transportation Security Act and is administered by TSA and USCG. TWICs are tamper-resistant biometric credentials that are issued to workers
who require unescorted access to secure areas of ports, vessels, and outer continental shelf facilities, and to all credentialed merchant mariners.
Merchant mariners are critical to the national security and economic needs of the nation. In addition to their importance as human resources for
the nation’s transportation system, many play a vital role in for crewing ships during national emergencies and wartime situations (see section
below on The Marine Highway and National Defense). Qualified mariners must be ready and available when a national emergency occurs – the
time required to train new mariners would make it impractical to mobilize U.S. sealift in an emergency if mariners were not already on hand.
The United States is also well-positioned to meet the demand for new mariners. There are seven merchant marine academies in the United
States that graduate over 700 ship officers and engineers annually. 33 Private operators, labor unions, and other associations also provide
training. Over the last decade, at least 19 maritime high schools began operations in the United States. 34 In 2008, MARAD announced a new
curriculum for these schools that will help prepare the next generation of high school graduates for maritime jobs. Expanded
use of Marine
the potential to generate orders for new vessels. These orders could help to
revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry and support the nation’s skilled shipyard labor base through the
Highway services has
construction of self-propelled vessels specifically designed for container and trailer freight movement and passenger trades, such as roll-on/rolloff (RoRo) trailer ships and ferries (see section below on The Marine Highway and National Defense). The direct number of jobs created per
vessel constructed would vary by vessel size and type. Building a larger self-propelled coastal ship to transport trailers and containers might
generate up to 600 job years of direct labor at the shipyard. 35 Indirect jobs (jobs at steel producers and other suppliers to the shipyard) and
induced jobs (jobs supported in the general economy due to spending of workers’ wages) would add significantly to the overall employment
Construction of Marine Highway vessels built to a standard design and in serial production runs
would also reduce per vessel costs and could lead to more vessel orders and jobs over the longer
term. Growth in Marine Highway activity will also support land-based job opportunities – such as short-haul truck drivers and logistical
impact.
business positions at Marine Highway ports.
Oil prices- solvency
The plan is key to create a buffer to oil price spikes.
Department of Transportation, 2011 April America’s Marine Highway Report to Congress,
http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/MARAD_AMH_Report_to_Congress.pdf
America’s Marine Highway can support the creation and sustainment of desirable jobs for Americans. These
jobs are provided through direct employment in marine transportation services and shipbuilding, as well as other
services that support marine transportation. Water transportation positions are beneficial to both workers and the nation. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that earnings for water transportation positions are higher than most other occupations with similar
educational requirements for entry-level positions. 28 As of 2008, the nation’s domestic and international water transportation industry
supported approximately 65,200 direct jobs, with an additional 97,000 jobs in port-related activities and 104,500 jobs in shipbuilding and repair.
29 The water transportation industry generated some $36.1 billion in gross output in 2007, of which $10.7 billion was value added. 30 Many of
the water transportation jobs exist in the inland waterway and coastal systems moving bulk products to our gateway ports. Marine Highway
services can take many forms, ranging from self-propelled vessels operating between coastal ports to tug-and-barge services serving ports along
inland and coastal waterways, and can serve various freight markets and schedules. A typical tug-and-barge service carrying containers between
ports offers employment opportunities for the vessel crew, stevedores, and terminal workers who facilitate the intermodal transfer of cargo to
and from the barges. Such job growth may or may not substitute for jobs in other transportation modes, depending on the markets affected and
the design of the service (see below). The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) is responsible for the credentialing of U.S. mariners. With certain
exceptions, individuals employed on U.S.-flag merchant vessel of 100 gross tons or over must hold a valid Merchant Mariners Credential
(MMC) issued by USCG. 31 The MMC is a form of identification and contains the qualifications that a mariner holds based on training,
experience, and completion of necessary examinations. Beginning April 15, 2009, all mariners holding an active license, certificate of registry,
Merchant Mariner Document (MMD), or MMC issued by USCG must also hold a valid Transportation Worker Identification Credential
(TWIC) issued by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). 32 The TWIC was established by Congress through the Maritime
Transportation Security Act and is administered by TSA and USCG. TWICs are tamper-resistant biometric credentials that are issued to workers
who require unescorted access to secure areas of ports, vessels, and outer continental shelf facilities, and to all credentialed merchant mariners.
Merchant mariners are critical to the national security and economic needs of the nation. In addition to their importance as human resources for
the nation’s transportation system, many play a vital role in for crewing ships during national emergencies and wartime situations (see section
below on The Marine Highway and National Defense). Qualified mariners must be ready and available when a national emergency occurs – the
time required to train new mariners would make it impractical to mobilize U.S. sealift in an emergency if mariners were not already on hand.
The United States is also well-positioned to meet the demand for new mariners. There are seven merchant marine academies in the United
States that graduate over 700 ship officers and engineers annually. 33 Private operators, labor unions, and other associations also provide
training. Over the last decade, at least 19 maritime high schools began operations in the United States. 34 In 2008, MARAD announced a new
curriculum for these schools that will help prepare the next generation of high school graduates for maritime jobs. Expanded use of Marine
Highway services has the potential to generate orders for new vessels. These orders could help to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry and
support the nation’s skilled shipyard labor base through the construction of self-propelled vessels specifically designed for container and trailer
freight movement and passenger trades, such as roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) trailer ships and ferries (see section below on The Marine Highway and
National Defense). The direct number of jobs created per vessel constructed would vary by vessel size and type. Building a larger self-propelled
coastal ship to transport trailers and containers might generate up to 600 job years of direct labor at the shipyard. 35 Indirect jobs (jobs at
steel producers and other suppliers to the shipyard) and induced jobs (jobs supported in the general economy due to
spending of workers’ wages) would add significantly to the overall employment impact. Construction of
Marine Highway vessels built to a standard design and in serial production runs would also reduce
per vessel costs and could lead to more vessel orders and jobs over the longer term. Growth in Marine
Highway activity will also support land-based job opportunities – such as short-haul truck drivers and logistical business
positions at Marine Highway ports. Job creation on vessels and in ports due to the growth of the America’s Marine Highway system
depends largely on the numbers and locations of Marine Highway corridors and services that eventually emerge, future growth of
domestic freight movements, future funding of infrastructure in water- and land-based transportation modes, and the
complex tradeoff of jobs among these modes as one modal system gains proportionately more traffic than another. Ultimately, however,
the principal source of new employment from America’s Marine Highway will be its contribution to the
efficiency and flexibility of the nation’s supply chain, as described in the following sections of this report. By having
access to a reliable transportation alternative that can be expanded at modest cost when compared to surface transportation services, U.S.
businesses can better react to changing supply chain circumstances, such as rising fuel costs, and
thereby realize productivity gains and improved profitability. Profitable and productive businesses
experiencing growth are the chief sources of new demand for workers throughout the economy.
2AC Add-Ons
2AC Coal add-on
Strong coal production is critical to sustain global economic and political stability.
Burke 04 (Dr. Francis P. Burke, Vice President, Research & Development of CONSOL Energy, Inc, FDCH
Congressional Testimony, 4-27-2004, “Sustainable Electricity Generation,” Lexis)
The U nited S tates is not unique in its dependence on coal, and it is vital to our national interest to
promote the increased use of coal not only domestically, but worldwide as a key component of our
energy and economic security. The most compelling evidence of this is China. This year, the Chinese will mine and consume 1.5
billion tons of coal. In 15 years, they will consume 2.5 billion tons; China's increase alone will equal our current consumption. They expect to
double their coal-fueled electricity generating capacity to 600 GW by 2020. By 2040, the Chinese expect to use 4 billion tons of coal annually.
Throughout the world, economic growth and political stability are tied to electrification, and
electricity is tied to coal. Therefore, the desire and, in fact, the necessity of the world to utilize its abundant
coal resources will not be denied. Energy availability and energy quality are key to meeting all three
aspects of sustainable development: economic, societal and environmental. The question is not whether we
need or will use coal for human development, but how we will use it.
2ac-Readiness Add on
Strategic Mobility low-crushes our deterrent, readiness, and de-escalation
Hickins ,10
Colonel Kenneth E. Hickins, Strategic Mobility, Army Sustainment , March-April 2010,
http://www.almc.army.mil/alog/issues/MarApr10/spectrum_strategy_mobility.html
In 2001, I authored two articles, “Strategic Mobility: The U.S. Military’s Weakest Link” and “Transforming
Strategic Mobility,” that were published in Army Logistician. In those articles, I made the argument that
strategic mobility was the U.S. military’s greatest deficiency. In the 8 years since those articles were
published, many things have changed and many have not. Logisticians are still just as guilty as other
tacticians of refighting the last war. The United States continues to fight the Global War on Terrorism
(with unprecedented military spending) while conducting modernization programs, the C–17
Globemaster and large medium-speed roll-on-roll-off (LMSR) vessel procurements, and base
realignment. The Army has recently accomplished the largest transformation in its history; yet, despite
all of the changes in procurements, modernizations, and modularity, my original argument still holds
true: Strategic mobility has not been fixed and is the weakest link in the strategic chain of getting the
right forces to the proper place in space and time to allow combatant commanders to deter, deescalate, or decisively defeat an adversary.
Key to readiness
Gibbs, 12
Bob Gibbs 4/13/2012, Subcommittee Chairman RE: Hearing on "How Reliability of the Inland Waterway
System Impacts Economic Competitiveness."
http://republicans.transportation.house.gov/Media/file/112th/Water/Water%20Briefing%20Memo%20
%204-18-12.pdf
America's utility industry is also dependent on inland waterways. America's utility industry uses the Inland
Waterways Transportation System to transport over 20% of the coal it consumes to produce electricity. More than 30% of the
oil and petroleum products used across the nation, and nearly all the home heating oil and gasoline
used in New England, moves by barge. Benefits to shippers and freight transportation savings are only a part of
the benefits for the nation's Inland Waterways Transportation System. The Inland Waterways
Transportation System also provides flood control benefits, increase nearby property values, provides
water supply for nearby communities, generates hydroelectric power, provides recreational
opportunities, provides local and regional economic opportunities, and enhances national security
capabilities and readiness.
Readiness is critical to prevent rivals from lashing out and prevent war
Spencer, 2000 (Jack, Research Fellow at Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies, “The
Facts About Military Readiness”, Heritage Foundation, September 15th,
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2000/09/BG1394-The-Facts-About-Military-Readiness)
America's national security requirements dictate that the armed forces must be prepared to defeat
groups of adversaries in a given war. America, as the sole remaining superpower, has many enemies.
Because attacking America or its interests alone would surely end in defeat for a single nation, these
enemies are likely to form alliances. Therefore, basing readiness on American military superiority over
any single nation has little saliency. The evidence indicates that the U.S. armed forces are not ready to support America's national
security requirements. Moreover, regarding the broader capability to defeat groups of enemies, military readiness has been declining. The
National Security Strategy, the U.S. official statement of national security objectives,3 concludes that the United States "must have the
capability to deter and, if deterrence fails, defeat large-scale, cross-border aggression in two distant theaters in overlapping time
frames."4According to some of the military's highest-ranking officials, however, the United States cannot achieve this goal. Commandant of the
Marine Corps General James Jones, former Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Jay Johnson, and Air Force Chief of Staff General Michael Ryan
have all expressed serious concerns about their respective services' ability to carry out a two major theater war strategy.5 Recently retired
Generals Anthony Zinni of the U.S. Marine Corps and George Joulwan of the U.S. Army have even questioned America's ability to conduct one
major theater war the size of the 1991 Gulf War.6 Military
readiness is vital because declines in America's military
readiness signal to the rest of the world that the United States is not prepared to defend its interests.
Therefore, potentially hostile nations will be more likely to lash out against American allies and
interests, inevitably leading to U.S. involvement in combat. A high state of military readiness is more
likely to deter potentially hostile nations from acting aggressively in regions of vital national interest,
thereby preserving peace.
2ac-Case
2ac-Terrorism
A2 No means to get nuclear material
Have means to acquire nuclear weapons.
Matthew Bunn, November 2008, Associate Professor of Public Policy at the Belfer Center for Science and
International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, “Securing the Bomb,” Ebsco Host
Terrorists are still seeking nuclear weapons— and al-Qaeda is reconstituting its ability to plan and
conduct complex operations in the mountains of Pakistan. If a technically sophisticated terrorist group could get the needed nuclear
materials, it might well be able to make at least a crude nuclear bomb—capable of turning the heart of a modern city into smoldering ruins. The
horror of a terrorist nuclear attack, should it ever occur, would transform America and the world—and not for the better. But despite
substantial progress in improving nuclear security, some stockpiles of potential bomb material remain dangerously
insecure. In Russia, there have been major improvements in nuclear security—the difference between the security in place at many nuclear
sites today and the security in place in 1994 is like night and day. But Russia has the world’s largest stockpiles of nuclear
weapons and materials, located in the world’s largest number of buildings and bunkers; some serious security weaknesses
still remain, ranging from poorly trained, sometimes suicidal guards to serious under-funding of nuclear
security; and the upgraded security systems must face huge threats, from insider theft conspiracies to terrorist
groups who have shown an ability to strike in force, without warning or mercy. In Pakistan, a relatively small nuclear stockpile, believed
to be heavily guarded, faces even more severe threats, both from nuclear insiders with violent Islamic extremist
sympathies and from outsider attack, potentially by scores or hundreds of al-Qaeda fighters. Some 130 nuclear research
reactors around the world still use highly enriched uranium (HEU) as their fuel, and many of these have only the
most modest security measures in place—in some cases, no more than a night watchman and a chainlink fence. The break-in by armed attackers at the Pelindaba site in South Africa in November 2007—a site with
hundreds of kilograms of weapon-grade uranium—is a reminder that nuclear security is a global problem, not just a
problem in the former Soviet Union. And incidents such as the inadvertent flight of six nuclear warheads to
Barksdale Air Force Base make it clear that nuclear security requires constant vigilance, and that every
country where these stockpiles exist, including the United States, has more to do to ensure that they are effectively secured.
A2 Motive
Previous attempts prove terrorists have motive.
William C. Potter, November/December 2007, Director – Center for Nonproliferation Studies and Professor of
Nonproliferation Studies – Monterey Institute of International Studies, “Symposium: Apocalypse When?,” The
National Interest, Lexis Nexis
Mueller's attempt to dismiss the threat posed by nuclear terrorists as alarmist fantasy also falters due to a
number of mistaken assumptions. Unfortunately, contrary to Mueller's assertion, there is substance and not only
rumor about terrorist efforts to acquire fissile material and nuclear weapons. Although the number of relevant terrorist
groups involved is small, it is neither zero nor one. In addition to a larger body of evidence involving Al-Qaeda that Mueller acknowledges,
there is solid
documentation about the sustained efforts in the early 1990s by the Japanese religious cult Aum
Shinrikyo to obtain nuclear weapons and their components. Among the obstacles that proved most difficult for both Aum and
Al-Qaeda to overcome was access to the fissile material needed to build an improvised nuclear device-that is, a crude but real nuclear explosive.
The two organizations were also inhibited by their dearth of in-house technical expertise, unfamiliarity with the nuclear black market and lack of
access to potential nuclear suppliers. However, what
is fantasy is not the difficulty of building such a device but
Mueller's confidence that the luck we have enjoyed to date will hold indefinitely.
Many groups will use nuclear weapons.
Graham Allison, Fall 2002, Director – Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Professor of
Government, and Faculty Chair of the Dubai Initiative – Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government,
“The New Containment: An Alliance Against Nuclear Terrorism”, The National Interest, Lexis Nexis
There is no doubt that Osama bin Laden and his associates have serious nuclear ambitions. For almost a
decade they have been actively seeking nuclear weapons, and, as President Bush has noted, they would use
such weapons against the United States or its allies "in a heartbeat." In 2000, the CIA intercepted a message in which a
member of Al-Qaeda boasted of plans for a "Hiroshima" against America. According to the Justice Department
indictment for the 1998 bombings of the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, "At various times from at least as early as 1993, Osama
bin Laden and others, known and unknown, made efforts to obtain the components of nuclear weapons." Additional
evidence from a
former Al-Qaeda member describes attempts to buy uranium of South African origin, repeated travels to three
Central Asian states to try to buy a complete warhead or weapons-usable material, and discussions with Chechen
criminal groups in which money and drugs were offered for nuclear weapons. Bin Laden himself has declared that
acquiring nuclear weapons is a religious duty. "If I have indeed acquired [nuclear] weapons", he once said, "then I thank God for enabling me to
do so." When forging an alliance of terrorist organizations in 1998, he issued a statement entitled "The Nuclear Bomb of Islam." Characterized
by Bernard Lewis as "a magnificent piece of eloquent, at times even poetic Arabic prose", it states: "It is the duty of Muslims to prepare as much
force as possible to terrorize the enemies of God." If anything, the ongoing American-led war on global terrorism is heightening our adversary's
incentive to obtain and use a nuclear weapon. Al-Qaeda has discovered that it can no longer attack the United States with impunity. Faced with
an assertive, determined opponent now doing everything it can to destroy this terrorist network, Al-Qaeda has every incentive to take its best
shot. Russia also faces adversaries whose objectives could be advanced by using nuclear weapons. Chechen terrorist groups, for
example, have demonstrated little if any restraint on their willingness to kill civilians and may be tempted to strike
a definitive blow to assert independence from Russia. They have already issued, in effect, a radioactive warning by planting a package
containing cesium-137 at Izmailovsky Park in Moscow and then tipping off a Russian reporter. Particularly as the remaining Chechen terrorists
have been marginalized over the course of the second Chechen war, they could well imagine that by destroying one Russian city and credibly
threatening Moscow, they could persuade Russia to halt its campaign against them. All of Russia's national security documents-its National
Security Concept, its military doctrine and the recently-updated Foreign Policy Concept-have clearly identified international terrorism as the
greatest threat to Russia's national security. As President Putin noted in reviewing Russian security priorities with senior members of the
Foreign Ministry in January 2001, "I would like to stress the danger of international terrorism and fundamentalism of any, absolutely any
stripe." The illegal drug trade and the diffusion of religious extremism throughout Central Asia, relating directly to the rise of the Taliban in
Afghanistan, threaten Russia's borders and weaken the Commonwealth of Independent States. The civil war in Tajikistan, tensions in Georgia's
Pankisi Gorge, and the conflicts in South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh-all close to the borders of the Russian Federation-provide
feeding grounds for the extremism that fuels terrorism. Additionally, Russia's geographical proximity to South Asia and the Middle East
increases concerns over terrorist fallout from those regions. President Putin has consistently identified the dark hue that weapons of mass
destruction (WMD) give to the threat of terrorism. In a December 2001 interview, in which he named international terrorism the "plague of the
21st century", Putin stated: "We all know exactly how New York and Washington were hit. . . . Was it ICBMs? What threat are we talking
about? We are talking about the use of mass destruction weapons terrorists may obtain." Separatist militants
(in Kashmir, the
Balkans and elsewhere) and messianic terrorists (like Aum Shinrikyo, which attacked the Tokyo subway with
chemical weapons in 1995) could have similar motives to commit nuclear terrorism. As Palestinians look to uncertain
prospects for independent statehood-and never mind whose leadership actually increased that uncertainty in recent years-Israel
becomes
an ever more attractive target for a nuclear terrorist attack. Since a nuclear detonation in any part of the world would be
extremely destabilizing, it threatens American and Russian interests even if few or no Russians or Americans are killed. Policymakers would
therefore be foolish to ignore any group with a motive to use a nuclear weapon against any target.
A2 Security focus hurts
Commercial focus of the plan is necessary to preserve U.S. waterways economic
benefit.
Breanne Wagner, November 2007, staff writer, National Defense, “License to Boat?,” Vol. 92 Issue 648, p. 23,
Ebsco Host
"We
are concerned that, as security has come to dominate the [Coast Guards] agen-da since September 11, 2001, an
imb.-ilance has developed in which the objective of facil-itating commerce.. .has been progressively
devalued," said Thomas Allegretti, AWO president, in a statement to the House sub-committee on Coast Guard and
maritime transportation. He believes this has created tension between the public and private sides.
"Instead of building on the solid foundation of industry/Coast Guard partnership, the recent emphasis on security has promoted a sometimes
adversarial relationship,"Alle-grettis aid. In an attempt to quell concerns from the private side, DHS officials have expressed their intent to
ensure that future regulations don’t compromise boaters' way of life or dis-rupt the How of commerce. "We
want to make sure we
implement our security measures and protocols in the area of small vessels in a way that doesn’t funda-mentally
impair the commercial livelihood and the sheer pleasure of taking small boats out on the waterways and these as that surround this country." Chertoff said at the DHS summit.
A2 No waterways terrorist tech
Kerry UWIED scare proves tech is easy to manufacture.
Scott C. Truver, Winter 2008, is Executive Advisor, National Security Programs, at Gryphon Technologies LC,
specializing in national and homeland security, and naval and maritime strategies, doctrines, programs and
operations, the interagency task force drafting the U.S. President’s National Strategy for Maritime Security, Ph.D. in
Marine Policy Studies from Naval Postgraduate School, and the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy, Naval War
College Review, Vol. 61 Issue 1, “MINES AND UNDERWATER IEDS IN U.S. PORTS AND WATERWAYS,” p.
111-2, Ebsco Host
Finally, although there might well
be more incidents that remain unreported, on 21 April 2004 a tugboat operator in
contacted the
Jefferson Parish bomb squad, which fished the bag out of the water. It proved to be an UWIED with a
couple of pounds of explosive in plastic pipes and a timer wrapped in trash bags to keep it afloat. One
possible target was presidential hopeful Senator John Kerry, who had been scheduled for a campaign
trip on the lake. The bomb squad used a water cannon to neutralize the device. In addition to showing how easily an UWIED
can be built, this last incident also highlights the challenge of who’s in charge to respond to a mine
crisis in U.S. ports and waterways: The Coast Guard or the Navy? Local police bomb squads? Fire departments? Natural resources
Lake Ponchartrain, Louisiana, spotted a suspicious floating bag and called the U.S. Coast Guard. The Coast Guard
police? Is it a homeland security or a homeland defense “problem,” and who makes the call one way or the other?
Terrorism on waterways is likely – will use a variety of different means nuclear being
included.
James J. Carafano, 6-11-2007, is Assistant Director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
International Studies and Senior Research Fellow for National Security and Homeland Security in the Douglas and
Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, “Small Boats, Big Worries: Thwarting
Terrorist Attacks from the Sea,” http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2007/06/small-boats-big-worriesthwarting-terrorist-attacks-from-the-sea
Globally, terrorists
have shown an increasing interest in using small boats to attack military and commercial
shipping and maritime facilities. The tactics and techniques of using commercial or non-commercial vessels
(under 500 tons) or swimmers to emplace or deliver improvised explosive devices have proven effective and
exportable. Contemporary operational practices by transnational terrorist groups include refining proven attack methods, sharing lessons
learned, and encouraging others to adopt effective tactics. Thus, the possibility of such attacks in U.S. waters should not
be ignored. The small-boat threat needs to be addressed, but rather than focusing on this particular terrorist tactic, Congress and the
Administration should invest in assets that improve the overall security of the maritime domain. The maritime sector is a large and diverse field
with unique and daunting threats. Efforts should be expanded to improve U.S. situational awareness and law enforcement response rather than
fixating on specific attack scenarios involving small boats or other terrorist threats. The Small-Boat Threat The definition of "small-boat threat"
encompasses a variety of possible weapon-delivery vehicles, tactics, and payloads. Vessels include everything from large craft such as small
freighters, large privately owned yachts, fishing trawlers, and commercial tugs to dinghies, jet-skies, and submarines, including mini-submarines
like those used by the Japanese in the attack on Pearl Harbor. An attack could involve suicide bombers, as in the case of the attack on the USS
Cole, or vessels on autopilot or remotely controlled. Improvised
explosive devices could be delivered or emplaced by
boats or swimmers (assisted or unassisted by breathing devices). This could involve placing a "parasite" on the hull of a craft or
deploying tethered (anchored to the sea bottom) or untethered (floating) mines in a sea lane, waterway, or port traffic area. Besides
conventional explosives, the bombers could detonate nuclear, biological, chemical, or radiological
devices. Attacks could occur while the targeted ship is docked at shore, approaching a port, sailing in international waters,
or in U.S. or Canadian coastal waterways. In addition to ships, attacks could target port facilities; commercial infrastructure (e.g., an
entertainment pier, bridge piling, or pipeline); or public events.
2ac-Economy
Locks and dams are broken and threaten massive economic impact
USB 12
Crumbling Inland Waterway System Puts Farmers, Consumers at Risk, Jan 24, 2012 Soybean checkoff study finds that United States could lose
global competitiveness, http://www.unitedsoybean.org/media-center/releases/crumbling-inland-waterway-system-puts-farmers-consumersat-risk/
Deteriorating condition of the U.S. lock and dam system puts the competiveness of U.S. soybean
farmers at risk according to a study funded by the United Soybean Board’s (USB’s) and the soybean checkoff’s Global Opportunities (GO)
program. Entitled “America’s Locks & Dams: A Ticking Time Bomb for Agriculture,” the in-depth examination coordinated by the Soy
Transportation Coalition (STC)
found American farmers and consumers “…will suffer severe economic
distress” if catastrophic U.S. lock or dam failures take place. More than half of the structures that are
part of the U.S. inland waterway system for river barge shipping exceed their 50-year usable lifespan,
according to the soybean checkoff-funded report. More than one-third surpass 70 years of age, a concern because
major rehabilitation is usually necessary to expand the typical lifespan from 50 to 75 years, according
to the study. “The GO committee invested in this study to calculate the impact of the worsening
condition of the lock and dam system and what the impact would be on the rail and highway system if
those locks failed,” says Laura Foell, soybean farmer from Schaller, Iowa, and chair of the GO committee. “It is important for all
in the industry and in the public sector to have the information necessary to make informed decisions
when it comes to investing in our locks and dams.”
Plan solves price blips
Mescher, 5
Kelly Mescher, http://www.marketsolutionsllc.com/news/lockingup.pdf, Market Solutions, Summer 2005
Market Solutions LLC has conducted a number of checkoff-funded transportation research projects for the United Soybean Board and state
soybean groups. Mark Newman, president of Market Solutions LLC, says many
producers don’t seem to understand the
critical importance of fast and efficient locks and dams and other transportation infrastructure. “I
think the main thing is that producers seem to have a hard time dealing with transportation issues,”
Newman says. “If you’ve got a tree fallen on the road between the farm and the elevator, you can see that you’ve got a problem with
transportation. People think once it’s delivered to the elevator, you don’t have to worry about it. But there’s
so much that can
happen after it’s delivered to the elevator that impacts the farm prices and competition in the world market.
The transportation is much more important than producers often give it credit for. You’re dealing with
these really big issues that cost millions and millions of dollars.”
Lock failure ensures delays and massive costs
Mescher, 5
Kelly Mescher, http://www.marketsolutionsllc.com/news/lockingup.pdf, Market Solutions, Summer 2005
Barges hauling U.S. corn and soybeans down the Upper Mississippi River must move through
approximately 25 old and outdated locks and dams before reaching the lower Mississippi River and
Gulf of Mexico. Mark Palmer, Washington representative for the American Soybean Association (ASA), says the locks and dams
were “New Deal projects,” started during the Roosevelt Administration. They’re in desperate need of
repair. “They’re terrible,” says Paul Rohde, president of the Midwest Area River Coalition (MARC) 2000, an organization promoting a
safe and environmentally sound Upper Mississippi and Illinois River System. “They’re 80 years old. They’ve been underfunded for several decades, and we’re seeing results of that. We have an alarming increase in lock
unavailability because of rehabilitation that they need to undergo. There’s an even more alarming
incidence of unscheduled lock closures because of rehab work that was not funded.” Those
unscheduled closures are a result of the quickly deteriorating locks and dams, which more and more
frequently require Band-Aids to temporarily patch up the problem. “It’s just like a car,” Rohde continues. “If you
don’t give a car an oil change, it can only go so far. Eventually, you’re going to run into some major transmission problems with that car by not
doing preventative maintenance.” But the
locks and dams are well past the point of preventative maintenance,
effective. And the more you use these locks, the more crumbled they become,
and more worn they become,” Palmer says. And that means an increased delay in transports, says Larry Daly,
Rohde adds. “[They’re] not
president of Alter Barge Line, Inc., a tow, barge and transport company based in Bettendorf, Iowa. Most vessels north of St. Louis are towing
approximately 15 barges, Daly says. But as a result of the small 600-ft. locks and chambers, the line of barges must be broken in half into sets of
seven or eight. That means a
pass through one lock and chamber takes approximately three hours. And when
you consider the fact that there are 25 separate locks and dams – time adds up. Boats will sometimes
sit in line for hours waiting to make the pass.
U.S. Econ High
Luhby 12 (Tami Luhby, writer for CNN Money, june 27, 2012, OECD warns U.S. on income inequality,
http://economy.money.cnn.com/2012/06/27/oced-warns-u-s-on-income-inequality/)
Income inequality can be bad for health, education, innovation and economic well being, the
report noted, citing experts' studies. Also, the U.S. tax and benefits system is much less
effective in reducing relative poverty than that of other OECD countries, the report found. The
federal government should refocus its safety net programs to better address the needs of the
very poor and shift away from tilting them toward certain demographic groups, such as the
elderly and disabled. It should also simplify its lifeline initiatives, which would reduce costs
and improve take-up. Income inequality was one of four areas of concern highlighted in the
OECD's biennial outlook of the United States. The others include: Continuing economic policies
that support the recovery and avoiding the "fiscal cliff" in 2013 due to the scheduled expiration
of tax cuts and implementation of automatic spending cuts. Addressing long-term
unemployment by promoting job creation and providing the education and training needed to
raise the skills and wages of the workforce. Foster more innovation by continuing to invest
federal funds into research and development, as well as placing more emphasis on education
in science, technology, engineering and math, the so-called STEM fields. Some 22 out of 30
OECD countries surveyed have more graduates in science and engineering among 25- to 34year-old workers than the United States. The OECD projects that the U.S. economy will grow by
2.4% in 2012 and by 2.6% in 2013.
Econ high – oil, confidence, retail, jobs
Kennedy-12, (1/10/12, Alex, Yahoo News, “Oil rises to near $102 on improving US economy,”
http://news.yahoo.com/oil-rises-near-102-improving-us-economy-054330352.html)
SINGAPORE (AP) — Oil prices rose to near $102 a barrel Tuesday in Asia amid growing investor
optimism the U.S. economy is improving, which would boost crude demand. Benchmark crude for
February delivery rose 66 cents to $101.97 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 25 cents to settle at $101.31 in New York on Monday.
In London, Brent crude was up 75 cents at $113.20 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. Oil prices have
hovered above $100 so far this month as signs of a strengthening U.S. economy bolster investor confidence.
Traders will be closely watching fourth-quarter corporate earnings reports, which began Monday,
along with the latest data on retail sales, jobless claims and consumer sentiment later this week. The
Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.3 percent Monday. "Oil feels like a market that wants to head lower
but is being precluded by a steady tone to equities, particularly within the U.S., where favorable economic
guidance continues to be seen out of most releases," energy analyst Ritterbusch and Associates said in a
report.
Econ high and improving
Robb 2012 (1/12/12, Greg, MarketWatch, The Wall Street Journal, “Fed’s Beige Book more upbeat
about economy,” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-beige-book-more-upbeat-about-economy2012-01-11)
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Economic conditions improved as 2011 drew to a close, according to
the Federal Reserve’s latest survey of economic conditions released on Wednesday. The Beige Book survey
of business contacts in the Fed’s 12 districts said economic activity increased “at a modest to moderate
pace.” This rate is an improvement from the mid-November report which said some districts were growing
at a “slow” pace. “Compared with prior summaries, the reports on balance suggest ongoing improvement
in economic conditions in recent months, with most districts highlighting more favorable conditions than
identified in reports from late spring through early fall,” the report said. Read excerpts from the Beige Book.
2ac-Plan Hurts the Environment
Environmental damage by transportation infrastructure is inevitable – plan minimizes
impact
IWR 12 (US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, June 20, “U.S. Port and Inland
Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post-Panamax Vessels”, pg. 17-20)
Since the 1970s, compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), Clean Water Act,
Endangered Species Act (ESA) and other regulatory law has greatly reduced the adverse
environmental impacts of many previous practices and positively transformed social attitudes toward
the environment. Due to these changes in national commitments, future modernization actions that
would have significant adverse impacts will be mitigated, often at great expense, and will play an important role in
modernization decisions. In this section, the “environmental footprint” caused by the transportation system is
first described to help identify the potential for future environmental impact and mitigation needs.
Then indicators of potential impact 2 The Administration transmitted a legislative proposal to the Congress to reform the laws governing the
Inland Waterways Trust Fund as part of the Jobs Bill proposal in September 2011. June 20, 2012INSTITUTE FOR WATER RESOURCES XVIII U.S.
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS sources
and vulnerabilities are compared to determine which regions may
require the most impact mitigation as a consequence of modernization. 3 The Environmental Footprint The
national footprint of adverse environmental impacts has accumulated over many decades and is not indicative of the present rate of adverse
impact, which is much improved. Measured in geographical terms, the
environmental footprint directly impacted by
development of transportation system infrastructure is a small fraction of the conterminous United
States. But the degree of adverse impact on natural systems and wild species of public interest has been particularly intense and the offsite
impacts on air, water and habitat quality from systems operations have been far reaching. The sources of past environmental
effects indicate the type of future modernization impacts that are likely to occur from expansion of
harbor, port and intermodal infrastructure and from transportation systems operations.
Modernization will need to be accompanied by justified mitigation to avoid further 1) degraded air
and water quality that threatens human health and safety, especially of low income and minority
groups; 2) loss of important natural and cultural heritage found in parks, refuges, wetlands and scarce
species; or 3) loss of recreational, commercial and other economically important resources. Potential infrastructural development along
coasts and waterways is a concern because coastal ports and inland waterway infrastructure is closely associated with two of the scarcest types
of ecosystems—free flowing rivers and estuarine wetlands. Lock and dam impoundments have contributed substantially to the imperilment of
numerous freshwater species by reducing free‐ flowing river habitat. In general, dredging of nontoxic bottoms impacts coastal and riverine
benthic organisms temporarily and bottoms typically recolonize quickly following disturbance. In the past, about 10 percent of bottom
sediments were contaminated with toxic materials and resistant to colonization by some bottom species. Sediment toxicity directly affects
bottom species and indirectly affects the fish and other species that feed on them and humans at the end of the food chain. Contaminated
sediments are now disposed of in isolated containment areas. In 1992, USACE was authorized to beneficially use dredge material for
environmental improvement. Today about 20 to 30 percent of port and waterway dredged material is used for habitat creation and other
beneficial use. But dredging also has had some persistent effects, including some unavoidable take of imperiled species (e.g., sea turtle take is
about 35 per year) and damage to shallow‐water estuarine ecosystems. Deepening coastal navigation channels can also favor destructive
saltwater intrusion into freshwater ecosystems and domestic water supplies. With respect to operations, future emissions of potentially
harmful materials into air and water, including green house gasses, also are a significant environmental concern. Because harbors concentrate
transportation system operations in densely populated areas, they remain a significant source of air quality degradation and inequitable impact
on low income and minority 3 Please see the main report for U.S. Port and Inland Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post‐Panamax
Vessels, Chapter 4: Environmental Impacts of Capacity Expansion, for references. June 20, 2012U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS XIX INSTITUTE
FOR WATER RESOURCES groups (which is inconsistent with Federal policies pertaining to environmental justice). Trucks
contribute
much more than any other mode to atmospheric emissions. In general, relying more on oceanic
shipment by large vessel and inland shipment by train and waterway in place of truck transport is
preferred because trucks are so much less fuel and emissions efficient. Ports have made
improvements to reduce emissions and are planning more, consistent with social concerns. As freight
transport operations increase, accidents may increase. Accidental collision of whales and other marine mammals with vessels approaching and
leaving ports has been a significant mortality source, but may moderate with recent speed restrictions. Potential oil and other contaminants
spills are associated with all modes. Potential Regional Impact Differences Past vulnerabilities and adverse impacts revealed in the
transportation system footprint of ports and harbors informed selection of 11 indicators of potential impact, which was assessed regionally.
These indicators reveal the potential for somewhat greater environmental impact in the Southeast Atlantic Region and, to less extent, in the
Pacific Region. Freight transport is expected to grow most rapidly in those regions because of high regional population growth rate. In the
Southeast, more harbor expansion is needed to accommodate the largest vessel sizes. In addition, in the Southeast Atlantic Region
environmental impact mitigation may be more costly because of greater wetland and endangered species vulnerability. In the Pacific Region
mitigation may be more costly due to greater vulnerability of economically important water resource use and low income and minority
communities. The Northeast Atlantic Region was ranked lowest because it has the slowest population growth, the greatest amount of unused
port capacity, and the least vulnerability to loss of wetlands, parks and other preserves, and threatened and endangered species. The Gulf
Region was not ranked quite so low because of its high regional population growth rate, less unused port capacity and greater vulnerability to
wetland and endangered species losses. The effects of Panama Canal expansion have the potential to redistribute some freight transport
growth from Pacific Coast ports to Southeastern ports, raising their impact level as increased impact at Pacific ports fall somewhat. The canal
expansion may also favor more transport of grains and soybeans on the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers, increasing the need for lock
maintenance. Adverse impacts
from possible lock rehabilitation are expected to be minor except for the
potential need to mitigate unavoidable loss of riparian wetlands. Some positive effects on air
emissions are expected because of less time needed in lock transit. "Factoring in environmental and
public health costs needs to be part of the decision making process at every step in order to ensure
future sustainability of our ports, our coastline, and our population." –Environmental Defense Fund June 20,
2012INSTITUTE FOR WATER RESOURCES XX U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS Adaptive management is a wise strategy to use
for future modernization, given the uncertainties held in future modernization actions and mitigation
costs, which depend on specific locations, types of actions taken and other unknowns.
2ac-trade
2ac-soy-China
2ac- Inflation –Low
China will keep the Yuan stable—key to exports
Wall Street Journal 11
Wall Street Journal, “Beijing to Keep Yuan Stable, Premier Says”, October 17, 2012
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203914304576632790881396896.html
SHANGHAI—Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said China will keep the yuan basically stable to avoid hurting
exporters, the highest-level statement yet from Beijing on its currency policy since the U.S. Senate approved a bill that would take China to
task over the issue. Mr. Wen's comments—reported Saturday by China's state-run media—send a signal that Beijing is
unlikely to allow any dramatic yuan appreciation for now, as the country's exporters have started
feeling the pressure from a slowing global economy. "Though we need to sustain our economic growth by increasing
domestic demand, we should not easily give up our shares in the international market," Mr. Wen said, according to the state-run Xinhua news
agency on Saturday.
Stable inflation of the Yuan now—China financial reform
MarketWatch 12
MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal, “China ex-official: Keep yuan globalization stable”, June 10, 2012,
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-ex-official-keep-yuan-globalization-stable-2012-06-10
BEIJING--The process of yuan globalization should be stable and based on China's financial reform, a former
adviser to the country's central bank said Sunday, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. The globalization process will be very complicated
when the yuan capital account isn't fully convertible, Li Daokui told a forum in Tianjin, Xinhua reported. "Historical
experiences
showed that the process to internationalize a country's currency is also a process that the nation's
economy is hit," Mr. Li said, according to the report. It may take more than 10 years to gradually internationalize the Chinese currency,
said Mr. Li, who added that the major barrier for the process now is that no reliable financial products are available for investors
Recent widening of the Yuan’s trading limit ensures stable inflation
The Economic Times 12
The Economic Times, “Wider yuan trading limit for creating more stable environment: China”, April 17,
2012, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-04-17/news/31355446_1_exchange-raterenminbi-yuan
BEIJING: China on Tuesday said its move to widen the daily trading limit of its currency against the US
dollar is aimed at breaking one-way expectation of the yuan's appreciation. "Widening the yuan's
trading band against the US dollar is an important policy arrangement for improving the formation
mechanism of the yuan's exchange rate and a significant step for the market-based reform of the
currency's exchange rate," Commerce Ministry spokesperson Shen Danyang said today. The recent move is conducive to
breaking the one-way expectation for the yuan's appreciation, cracking down on abnormal foreign
exchange movements and creating a more stable environment for foreign trade, he said. The People's
Bank of China, the country's central bank, announced on Saturday that it would widen the yuan's daily trading
limit against the US dollar from 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent starting this week. In the foreign exchange spot market,
Chinese banks can exchange the yuan one per cent above or below the central parity against the US dollar announced by the China Foreign
Exchange Trading System each trading day.
Yuan is stable—strong mid-point
Wildau 12
Gabriel Wildau, XE, “Stronger mid-point keeps yuan stable”, January 10, 2012 https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chromeinstant&ie=UTF8#q=yuan+is+stable&hl=en&tbo=1&prmdo=1&output=search&source=lnt&tbs=qdr:y&sa=X&ei=n7TvT5mnKoW88ASZuumAAg&ved=0CAgQpw
UoBTgK&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.r_qf.,cf.osb&fp=d7a50cc02f3c90da&biw=1366&bih=643
SHANGHAI, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The
yuan held steady on Tuesday after the central bank set a stronger mid-point,
sending a strong signal that global movements in the dollar will be the dominant factor in guiding the
yuan's value in the near term. The dollar traded slightly weaker overnight, prompting the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to set a
stronger mid-point, following three days in which a rising dollar was met with weaker mid-points. Spot yuan closed at 6.3150 on Tuesday, 4 pips
weaker than Monday's close of 6.3146. The PBOC will continue to let the direction of the dollar index determine the trend in its daily fixings in
the near term, traders said. The two rates generally move in opposite directions. 'Looking at the last several trading days since the New Year,
the link between the mid-point and the dollar index has been quite high,' said a foreign exchange trader at a city commercial bank in Shanghai.
The trend indicates that the government's stated policy of keeping the yuan exchange rate 'basically
stable' does not refer exclusively to the yuan-dollar rate, but rather to the yuan's value against a
broader basket of global currencies. 'In the near term, the link with the dollar index will strengthen,' said the trader. Traders
expect that spot yuan will trade in a narrow range for the next several weeks. For full-year 2012, the market is expecting moderate appreciation
of around 3 percent, with increased volatility in both directions. The spot rate has hovered slightly above the central bank's mid-point in the
first few days of the year, a shift from the end of 2011, when the yuan consistently traded below the fixing. This shift is likely due to a narrowing
of the spread between the offshore rate, traders say. After trading at a discount to the onshore rate from mid-September, the two rates
reached virtual parity on Friday. As a result, trading firms that had been purchasing yuan in the offshore market -- in order to take advantage of
the cheaper price there -- began shifting their purchases back onshore, leading to the moderate appreciation pressure evident in the last few
days. In the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, one-year NDFs tracked the onshore movement, reaching 6.3220 in late afternoon on
Tuesday, 80 pips stronger than Monday's close.
2ac-A2 China wont breakup or China breakup peaceful
Any transition would be violent.
Andrew J. Nathan, Professor of Political Science at Columbia University, 09
[“Authoritarian Impermanence,” Journal of Democracy, Volume 20, Number 3, July 2009, ProjectMUSE]
We have been used to dramatic, bright-line transitions to democracy. Might the Chinese system instead
reform and adapt, adapt and reform, to the point where it emerges on the other side of the looking glass as more
democratic than not? This is the hope of China's rights-protection (weiquan) movement of lawyers, petitioners,
bloggers, and journalists, and of the wider circle of civil society organizations and religious groups
that have so far kept a low profile in order to avoid repression. They hope that the regime will
become enmeshed in the logic of the institutions that it has created as safety valves to preserve its
rule, such as [End Page 38] courts and the media. The Party would then find itself forced to coexist
with an equally powerful civil society, and China would have become a democracy without a
dramatic moment of change. Call it a new type of transition —not breakdown, extrication, or pact,
but segue. The Party resists this scenario. The key lesson that its leaders learned from Tiananmen was to refuse
equal dialogue with society. As the procrackdown premier Li Peng put it during his debates with the
prodialogue Party secretary Zhao Ziyang during the crisis, to allow the demonstrating students to
"negotiate with the Party and government as equals" would be to "negate the leadership of the
CCP and negate the entire socialist system."6 Subsequent events in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union
confirmed that point for the leadership.7 The regime is willing to change in any way that helps it to stay in
power, but is unwilling to relax the ban on autonomous political forces. This makes it more likely that regime change,
should it come, will occur through some kind of rupture. But China's transition will not resemble the Soviet Union's.
China is not in an arms race that it cannot afford. It is not overextended in a security rivalry with the
United States. Its minority populations are only 5 or 6 percent of its demographic makeup, not
more than half. It is not constitutionally structured as a federation whose units have the right to
secede. Nor will the Chinese transition resemble Taiwan's.8 The Chinese government does not need to
integrate a previously excluded ethnic majority. It has not permitted the formation of an organized
opposition or trained the populace in competitive elections. The country is not a dependency of the
United States. The most likely form of transition for China therefore remains the model of Tiananmen, with three
elements coming together: 1) a robust plurality of disaffected citizens (in 1989 because of inflation and
corruption, in the future possibly because of unemployment, an environmental disaster, or some
form of national humiliation); 2) a catalytic event that sends a signal to scattered social forces that the time has
come to rise up; and 3) a split in the leadership (whether due to personality differences, power struggle,
uncertain support of the armed police and military, or ideological division) that renders the response
from the top uncertain or weak and allows the challenge to snowball. That the regime considers itself vulnerable to
just such a scenario is evidenced by the massive efforts that it makes to prevent these three elements from emerging. It
seeks to shield the public from the impacts of economic instability, buy legitimacy among major
social sectors, control bad news, outlaw mobilization, divide and repress opposition, monitor civil
society, control networking tools such as the Internet and cellphones, strengthen the police and paramilitary, and
above all, to keep its own internal divisions out of the public eye so that the opportunity structure for social mobilization
remains unpromising. Such efforts have succeeded so far in dealing with the impact of the [End Page 39]
global economic crisis on Chinese workers. Dispersed back to the countryside from which they
came and given work generated by the government's stimulus package, the peasant workers have not
mounted a challenge to the government. And the regime has succeeded in bottling up Charter 08, the most
broadly based and intellectually sophisticated challenge to its principles of rule since Tiananmen
itself. But the elements of potential crisis can come together at any time. If one imagines the Chinese system
facing the kinds of problems that such countries as the United States, Britain, and Japan have
recently gone through—unsuccessful wars, plummeting economies, unpopular leaders, hypercritical media,
deep divisions over cultural identity—it is as hard to imagine the Chinese system surviving as it is to imagine the
mature democracies collapsing. What keeps such crises of government from becoming crises of the regime are
cultures of open dissent, the robust rule of law, and the institutional capacity to change leaders in response
to public discontent without changing the system. Had China chosen the other path in 1989, it
might have these stabilizing features today. Without them, the authoritarian regime must perform constantly like
a team of acrobats on a high wire, staving off all crises while keeping its act flawlessly together . Today, on the
evidence of our contributors, the regime is managing to do that. But it cannot afford to slip.
2ac-A2-no war with US
Not rational, they collapse would tube traditional decision calc like your cards talk
about
Any collapse results in nuclear launch against the U.S.
Renxing 05 - Epoch Times staffwriter
[San, "CCP Gambles Insanely to Avoid Death (Part I)" http://www.theepochtimes.com/news/5-83/30931.html]
“In any event, we, the CCP, will never step down from the stage of history! We’d rather have the whole world, or even the
entire globe, share life and death with us than step down from the stage of history!!! Isn’t there a ‘nuclear bondage’
theory? It means that since the nuclear weapons have bound the security of the entire world, all will die together if
death is inevitable. In my view, there is another kind of bondage, and that is, the fate our Party is tied up
with that of the whole world. If we, the CCP, are over, China will be over, and the world will be over.” 3) “It is
indeed brutal to kill one or two hundred million Americans. But that is the only path that will secure
a Chinese century, a century in which the CCP leads the world. We, as revolutionary humanitarians,
do not want deaths. But if history confronts us with a choice between deaths of Chinese and those of Americans,
we’d have to pick the latter, as, for us, it is more important to safeguard the lives of the Chinese people
and the life of our Party. That is because, after all, we are Chinese and members of the CCP. Since
the day we joined the CCP, the Party’s life has always been above all else!” Since the Party’s life is “above
all else,” it would not be surprising if the CCP resorts to the use of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in its
attempt to postpone its life. The CCP, that disregards human life, would not hesitate to kill two hundred million
Americans, coupled with seven or eight hundred million Chinese, to achieve its ends. The “speech,” free of all
disguises, lets the public see the CCP for what it really is: with evil filling its every cell, the CCP intends to fight all of
mankind in its desperate attempt to cling to life. And that is the theme of the “speech.”
Crisis would cause war with the US
Shirk, 7
Susan Shirk, served as deputy assistant secretary for China at the U.S. State Department from 1997 to
2000.CHINA: FRAGILE SUPERPOWER, 2007,p. 255
When President HiaoJuntio met with President George Bush in fall 2005, he sought to reassure the
American president that China was not a threat by describing the many difficult domestic problems
he was struggling to juggle at home. Although China looks like a powerhouse from the outside, to its leaders it
looks fragile, poor, and overwhelmed by internal problems. But China's massive problems, instead of reassuring us,
should worry us. It is China's internal fragility, not its growing strength that presents the greatest danger. The weak
legitimacy of the Communist Party and its leaders' sense of vulnerability could cause China to behave rashly in a
crisis involving Japan or Taiwan, and bring it into a military conflict with the United State.\
Even if no war with US, Chinese instability will trigger world war iii
THE STRAITS TIMES, June 28, 2003, p. online
But imagine a China disintegrating- on its own, without neo-conservative or Central Intelligence Agency prompting, much less outright military
invasion because the economy (against all predictions) suddenly collapses. That
would knock Asia into chaos. A massive
flood of refugees would head for Indonesia and other places with poor border controls, which don’t’
want them and cant handle them; some in Japan might lick their lips at the prospect of of World War
II revisited and look to annex a slice of China. That would send Singapore and Malaysia- once occupied
by Japan- into nervous breakdowns. Meanwhile, India might make a grab for Tibet, and Pakistan for
Kashmir. Then you can say hello to World War III, Asia style. That’s why wise policy encourages
Chinese stability, security and economic growth – the very direction the White House now seems to
prefer.
2acs-soy-Brazil
2ac-Soy crop low
Brazilian soy crop down in SQ
Reuters June 5th (UPDATE 2-Brazil gov't cuts soy estimate, raises corn view,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/05/grains-brazil-idUSL1E8H529F20120605, P. online)
Brazil's government trimmed its 2011/12 soybean crop estimate on Tuesday after drought ravaged
output in the world's second biggest producer this season, but raised its forecast of corn output to a
record. U.S. soybean futures rose after Brazil's food supply agency Conab cut its production forecast
and U.S. crop ratings disappointed. Brazil's soy crop that finished harvest in May is now estimated at
66.37 million tonnes, after drought erased about 10 million tonnes from crop's potential, Conab data
showed. The latest output number is down slightly from last month's estimate of 66.68 million tonnes.
Carry-over stocks of soybeans are set to drop to 1 million tonnes, Conab estimates, their lowest since
2008/09 and down about 65 percent from last year. No major revisions to the soy crop are expected in
the coming months. Brazil harvested a record 75.3 million tonnes the year before
2ac-AT No link to defo
High prices increase soybean farming which devastates the Amazon
Astor in 3
Michael, December 18, Environmental News Network, Soybeans: The new threat to Brazilian
Rainforests, http://www.enn.com/news/2003-12-18/s_11441.asp
In town, cowboy-hatted ranchers, recently transplanted from Brazil's prosperous south, rub shoulders with Amazon Indians as streams of
tractor-trailers kick up dust hauling fertilizer in and huge tree trunks out. Nowhere is the doubled-edge thrust of soybeans more apparent than
in this dusty boom town on the rainforest's southern edge. "The
farmers are cutting down everything to make way for
soy and that's good business for me," said Ivo de Lima, a lumber man who moved here recently. A new variety of soybean
developed by Brazilian scientists to flourish in this punishing equatorial climate is good for farmers, too, putting South America's biggest
to the horror of environmental
activists, soybeans are claiming increasingly bigger swaths of rainforest to make way for plantations,
adding to the inroads by ranching. The Amazon lost some 10,000 square miles (25,476 square kilometers) of forest cover last year
alone — 40 percent more than the year before. "After cattle ranching, soybeans are the main driver of Amazon
destruction," said Roberto Smeraldi of Friends of the Earth Brazil. "Today, we have lots of areas being cut down by small holders with the
country on the verge of supplanting the United States as the world's leading exporter. But,
idea of selling them to soybean farmers and in other areas pasture is being converted to soy." With soybean prices at a five-year high, thanks to
a smaller than expected crop this year in the United States, Brazilian farmers are rushing into the jungle to take advantage of cheap land. A bag
of soybeans sells for about 35 reals (US$11.85), allowing a good profit because soybeans cost 17.6 reals-22 reals (US$6-US$7.50) to produce,
said Anderson Galvao Gomes, director of the Celeres agricultural consulting firm." The
price would have to drop considerably
for the expansion to stop," he said.The front line of the soybean advance is in Querencia, a municipality of nearly 6,800 square miles
(17,600 square kilometers) that includes the Xingu National Park, a near-pristine slice of rainforest where 14 Indian tribes live in much the way
they have for thousands of years.
High Soy prices destroy the Amazon
STRI in 8
Smithsonian Tropial Research Institute - Thursday, 10 January 200, http://enviro.org.au/enewsdescription.asp?id=852,
High soy prices affect the Amazon in several ways. Some forests are cleared for soy farms. Farmers
also buy and convert many cattle ranches into soy farms, effectively pushing the ranchers further into
the Amazonian frontier. Finally, wealthy soy farmers are lobbying for major new Amazon highways to
transport their soybeans to market, and this is increasing access to forests for loggers and land
speculators.
2ac A2: Not reverse causal
Decreased Soy from the US would also increase Brazilian soy
STRI in 8
Smithsonian Tropial Research Institute - Thursday, 10 January 2008, http://enviro.org.au/enews-description.asp?id=852,
The drop-off
in US soy has helped to drive a major increase in global soy prices, which have nearly doubled in the
last 14 months. In Brazil, the world's second-largest soy producer, high soy prices are having a serious
impact on the Amazon rainforest and tropical savannas. "Amazon fires and forest destruction have
spiked over the last several months, especially in the main soy-producing states in Brazil," said
Laurance. "Just about everyone there attributes this to rising soy and beef prices."
Generally
Soybean farming is devastating the rainforests in Brazil and displacing indigenous
peoples—This threatens planetary survival
Barry in 3
Glen, PhD, Forest and Rainforest Conservation Blog, http://forests.org/blog/archives/000357.htm
Eat soybeans produced in Brazil? Then you are in all likelihood contributing to rainforest loss, climate
change and displacement of indigenous peoples. It is that simple. While soybeans could be produced
on non-forested lands, the reality is that often rainforests are being cleared for their production. Cheap,
undervalued forest lands continue to fuel the Amazon's soybean boom, making soybeans the second
leading driver of Amazon destruction after cattle ranching. Left unchecked, soybean cultivation and
accompanying road construction will eventually deforest most of the Brazilian rainforest, wreaking
havoc upon the local, regional and global environments. Until such time as Brazilian soybean
production can be certified as having not resulted in rainforest loss, they must be boycotted.
Planetary survival depends upon it.
Brazilian soybean farming is destroying the Amazon
Astor in 3
Michael, December 18, Environmental News Network, Soybeans: The new threat to Brazilian
Rainforests, http://www.enn.com/news/2003-12-18/s_11441.asp
Indians say the soybean boom is beginning to change all that. "The soy is arriving very fast. Every time I
leave the reservation I don't recognize anything anymore because the forest keeps disappearing," said
Ionaluka, a director of the Xingu Indian Land Association. The area around Xingu lost about 500 square
miles (1,280 square kilometers) of forest last year. "Across the state, deforestation increased by 30
percent between 2001 and 2002. This year, I don't know about the whole state, but in the region of
Querencia I believe the numbers for deforestation will certainly grow," said Rodrigo Justus Brito,
director of forest resources for the state environmental agency. Indians fear deforestation will dry up
the rivers that run through the Xingu reservation and the chemicals used to keep lizards and termites
off crops will poison their fish. Satellite photos reveal that the southern half of the 10,800-square-mile
(27,648-square-kilometer) reservation is almost completely surrounded by farm fields.
Environmentalists fear that is a picture of the Amazon's future. Soybean producers are lobbying to
pave roads through the jungle and Cargill recently opened a major port in the Amazon River city of
Santarem. Critics say that if left unchecked, soybean cultivation will eventually eat up large swaths of
rainforest and wreck the environment.
Forest Fires
Brazilian soybean farming spurs forest fires that devastate the Amazon
Casson in 3
Anne, August, World Wildlife Fund, Oil Palm, Soybeans and Critical Habitat loss: A report prepared for
the WWF Forest Conversion Initiative,
http://www.wwf.ch/images/progneut/upload/oilpalmsoybeanscriticalhabitatloss25August03.pdf
In Brazil, soybean expansion has also been identified as a contributing cause of the 1998 forest fires,
which affected 14%, or 3.3 million ha of land within the northern Amazonia state of Roraima.
Approximately 1.2 million ha of this land consisted of open and dense rain forest (IFFN 2003). According
to the United Nations Humanitarian Affairs Office (1998), the fires were caused by multiple factors—
one being soybean expansion in the nearby savanna area. The ‘El Nino’ phenomenon caused a serious
drought in the northern and north-eastern parts of Brazil. Land clearing practices then triggered the fires
and increased the severity of the problem. The fires started in savanna areas and were ignited by the
“queimadas” (burning fields for pasture and agricultural crops such as maize, yucca and soy). These fires
are believed to have blazed out of control after temperatures soared and a strong wind of up to 100km
per hour went through the area. The increasing prevalence of fire-dependent agriculture in the
Amazonian region is expected to result in further forest fires, which will posit a significant threat to
the Amazon’s tropical forests (Nepstad et al. 1999).
Biodiversity
Soybean farming threatens the Brazilian rainforests biodiversity
Casson in 3
Anne, August, World Wildlife Fund, Oil Palm, Soybeans and Critical Habitat loss: A report prepared for
the WWF Forest Conversion Initiative,
http://www.wwf.ch/images/progneut/upload/oilpalmsoybeanscriticalhabitatloss25August03.pdf
In Brazil, soybean plantations have also rapidly expanded into critical habitats such as the Cerrado
ecoregion. According to the FAO (2003), soybean area has increased eight-fold in Brazil, jumping from
1.3 million ha in 1970 to 16.3 million ha in 2002 (FAO 2003). Although, statistics from the Brazilian
government state that Brazil’s soybean area has already reached 18.4 million ha (IBGE & CONAB 2003).
Until the 1980’s, soybean plantations were primarily concentrated in the South-Southeast region of
Brazil (Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul & Santa Catarina), however expansion has rapidly increased in the
Centre-West states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and Goiás since the 1980s. To a lesser extent,
expansion has also been occurring in the North-Northeast Amazonian region where the dominant
vegetation is tropical rain forest (Figure 9). As of 2002, 83% of Brazil’s soybean plantations were
established in the five states of Mato Grosso (25%), Rio Grande do Sul (19%), Paraná (19%), Goiás (12%)
and Matto Grosso do Sul (8%). Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná are located in the South-Southeast region,
while Mato Grosso, Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul are located in the Centre-West region. In the last 5
years, soybean plantations have also increasingly been planted in the Northern Amazonian states of
Rondônia, Para and Roraima. Area planted in these three states has increased from 3,000 ha in 1996/7
to 56,000 ha in 2002/3. (IBGE & CONAB 2003). The relationship between soybean expansion and
tropical forest loss is not known in the SouthSoutheast region, however it is thought to be significant.
This is because virtually all of the land in the state of Paraná was originally tropical forest, with a high
prevalence of Araucaria trees (Kaimowitz & Smith 2001). Currently, there is widespread concern about
the expansion of soybeans into the CentreWest states of Mato Grosso, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul and
Tocantins, where soybean expansion has rapidly increased more than eight-fold from 598,000 ha in
1975 to 5.2 million ha in 2000 (Figure 10). This dramatic expansion was largely accomplished through
the wholesale clearing and conversion of virgin savanna land within a critical habitat known as the
Cerrado ecoregion (Schnepf et al. 2001). The Cerrado ecoregion dominates 1.5 to 2 million km2 in
Brazil’s Centre-West states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias and Tocantins and in parts of
Bahia, Maranháo, Minas Gerais and Piaui. The Cerrado ecoregion is the most extensive
woodland/savanna region in South America (CI 2002). Within this region there is a mosaic of different
vegetation types, including tree and scrub savanna, grassland with scattered trees, and occasional
patches of a dry, closed canopy forest called the Cerradão. Gallery forests can also be found along
rivers and streams. The region is of enormous ecological and biological significance as it contains
around 10,000 plant species, many of which (4,400) are endemic to central Brazil. The Cerrado is also
home to a number of ‘focal species’ such as the maned wolf, the giant armadillo and the giant
anteater (ELC 2002). Unfortunately, the Cerrado is one of the leastprotected ecosystems in Brazil as only
1.5% lies within federal reserves. It is estimated that only 35% of the Cerrado remains in a relatively
natural state (Kaimowitz & Smith 2001).
Brazil Soybean Production Decreasing
Brazilian soybean production is decreasing—causes a shift to American soybeans
Grete 12
Brian Grete, Pro Farmer Senior Market Analyst, “Brazilian Soybean Estimates Continue to Decline”, AG
WEB, March 7, 2012,
http://www.agweb.com/article/brazilian_soybean_estimates_continue_to_decline/
Brazil soybean estimates continue to decline. The state ag agency in Brazil's No. 3 soybean producing state of Rio
Grande do Sul (RGDS) lowered its soybean production estimate to 7.1 MMT from 8 MMT previously due to impacts
from drought. Conab, the Brazilian equivalent of USDA, will update its official Brazilian soybean forecast tomorrow morning and USDA will
follow with its updated crop projection Friday morning. Pro Farmer South American crop consultant, Dr. Michael
Cordonnier, who is currently in Brazil says the Brazilian soybean crop is worse than he anticipated and
feels his current forecast of 68 MMT may be 1 MMT to 2 MMT too high. Dr. Cordonnier says the RGDS crop is some of worst soybeans he has
seen in Brazil over the past 30 years. The long and short of it: Falling
Brazilian crop estimates are keeping Chinese
buyers interested in U.S. soybeans longer than expected, which is the fuel behind the current price
rally in the soybean market.
Brazil soybean production is decreasing because of fungi and drought—causes US fill
in
Dreibus 12
Tony C. Dreibus, Bloomberg, “Brazil Soybean Forecast Lowered On Dry Weather, Oil World Says”, Mrch
6, 2012, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-06/brazil-soybean-forecast-lowered-on-dryweather-oil-world-says.html
Brazilian soybean farmers will collect 68 million metric tons of the oilseed in 2011-12, down 0.7
percent from a forecast last week, as dry weather during growing and disease cut yields , Oil World said. A
fungal disease that’s the worst in four years will curb production after the dryness slashed yields , the
Hamburg-based researcher said today in a report. Output forecasts were cut in the states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul as rain was too late
to save plants, the researcher said. Output will fall 9.7 percent from last year. “Crop
reports from Brazil and Paraguay are
alarming, with yields obtained smaller than expected,” Oil World said. “In Mato Grosso too much rainfall, lack of sunshine
and widespread infestation with the Asian rust fungus will sizably reduce yields below last year’s.” Soybean futures on the Chicago
Board of Trade have gained 10 percent this year as the dry weather cut yield projections. The price gained
10 straight sessions through March 2, the longest winning streak since July 15. Output in South America’s four main producers will fall to 120.9
million tons this year, Oil World said. That’s down from 124.2 million tons forecast on Jan. 27. Farmers in Paraguay will collect 4.2 million tons,
about half what they harvested in 2010-11, according to the report. Oil World raised its outlook for the Argentine crop 1.1 percent to 47 million
tons from the Jan. 27 outlook. “Despite the improved outlook for Argentina, soybean
production will decline steeply in
South America,” the researcher said. “The supply tightness of the current season will spill over into the first half of the 2012-13 season.”
Brazil soybean production down--droughts
Lima 12
Mario Sergio Lima, Bloomberg, “Brazil Soybean Forecast Cut To 66.4 Million Tons”, June 5, 2012,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-05/brazil-soybean-forecast-cut-to-66-4-million-tons.html
Soybean growers in Brazil, the world’s second-largest producer, will harvest less than previously
forecast after drought pared output, the government said. The forecast for the crop year that started Sept. 1
was reduced to 66.4 million metric tons from 66.7 million tons estimated on May 10, the Agriculture
Ministry’s crop-forecasting agency, known as Conab, said in a report today. Production will fall from 75.3 million
tons in the previous crop year. The forecast for corn output was raised to 67.8 million tons from 65.9 million tons. Brazil, the world’s thirdlargest grower of the grain, produced 57.4 million tons of corn in the previous crop year. The U.S. is the world’s largest producer of soybeans
and corn. China is the world’s second-biggest corn grower.
2ac-hegmony
2ac-A2: Not solve hegemony
Key to power projection which is a key internal link to hard power
Jackson ‘7
USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT LEVERAGING THE STRATEGIC VALUE OF THE U.S. INLAND
WATERWAY SYSTEM by Colonel Donald E. Jackson, Jr. United States Army
Inland waterways are a strategic asset to the nation, enabling the U.S. to significantly increase
economic output in both domestic and international markets, and project military power
more rapidly and effectively into the 21st Century. Over the next 20 years economists
estimate that inland navigation will increase by more than 35%.49 The inland waterway
system is a potential resource upon which we can increase the flow of military cargo.
Continued application of technology to barge operations and integration of the inland waterway
system into the nation’s intermodal system makes this an area ripe for additional
development.50 Waterways already move important national defense resources and other
supplies in large quantities for the armed forces.51 As a mode of transportation, the inland
waterway system is quiet, low profile, and off the public radar.
Prefer our evidence it is from high raking member of the armed forces
AND, Ships and waterways are critical to U.S. geopolitical power – domestically
safeguards against outside threats.
Sue Roberts et. al, 2011, Prof. and Chair of Geography at the University of Kentucky, previously taught at what
is now Anglia Polytechnic University in Great Britain, Ph.D. is from Syracuse University, Anna Secor is an
Associate Prof. at the University of Kentucky, is a political geographer who does research on questions of space, the
subject, and the state, Matthew Zook is an Associate Professor at the University of Kentucky with a focus on focus
on technological change and shifting geographies of globalization, Antipode, Vol. 44 No. 1, “Critical Infrastructure:
Mapping the Leaky Plumbing of US Hegemony,” p. 8-9
Cables, pipelines, and ships
are the material elements of connection. They enable the global flows deemed
critical to US geoeconomic and geopolitical power and security. Cable 09STATE15133—transmitted to US
embassies around the world, cached by a US Army Private, made globally accessible by Wikileaks, and then transferred from server to server to
evade censorship—is itself a product of and an element within the networked world that it maps (as is our map—Figure 1). As an action request,
the cable represents the first phase in a project that globalizes homeland security; the Critical Foreign Dependencies Initiative exists as a subprogram within a national level initiative (NIPP) and is pursued at the intersection of the DHS and the DOS. The resulting list maps the world
from the perspective of US security, but not from the typical geopolitical perspective of threat and allegiance. Instead ,
the map marks
the points and passages that define US hegemony’s vulnerability and dependency. If the enemy—terrorism,
disease, or natural disaster—cannot itself be mapped, then the geostrategic map can only fixate on the fail points and potential targets. Other
leaked cables might give some sense of how exactly this information is to be “leveraged” and with whom as part of the US DHS’s risk
management approach to vulnerability in a networked age. Perhaps not surprisingly, however, this map
of homeland-securitybeyond-the-homeland nonetheless marks the territorial boundaries of the USA. Because embassies in Mexico
and Canada listed border crossings as part of their assessment of CIKR, the US land border itself emerges, from the outside in, as a critical
foreign dependency. And
because none of the sites marked are within US boundaries (by definition), the
territorial USA pops out of the map like a missing puzzle piece, wholly delineated and complete: the
blank space from which to assess the criticality of the world’s cables, pipes, mines and factories upon which it
depends.
2ac-Sustainability
Extend the Norff evidence—military and economic overstretch can be managed, very
little risk those factors cause decline. Role of the dollar, size of our trade and military,
and
Even if they win collapse inevitable – we should retain hegemony as long as possible.
Bradley A. Thayer, 2007, Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State
University, American Empire, Routledge, p. 105
Knowing that American hegemony will end someday does not mean that we should welcome or
facilitate its demise; rather the reverse. The United States should labor to maintain hegemony as
long as possible—just as know-ing that you will die someday does not keep you from planning your
future and living today. You strive to live as long as possible although you realize that it is inevitable that you will die. Like good
health, Americans and most of the world should welcome American primacy and work to preserve it as long as possible.
AND, sustainable – no alternative.
Colin Gray, 2009, Professor of International Politics and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading in
England, Worked at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in England, Hudson Institute, Founder of the
Defense-Oriented Think Tank: National Institute for Public Policy, Graduate of the Universities of Manchester and
Oxford, "AFTER IRAQ: THE SEARCH FOR A SUSTAINABLE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY," p. 5-6
The long list of U.S. problems in Afghanistan and Iraq should not be misinterpreted. It would be a mistake to conclude that: (1) the United
States should cease to act hegemonically; (2) U.S. values (i.e., culture) are flawed, for Americans and some others; (3) the U.S. armed forces
have been demonstrably incompetent. A more sensible interpretation of events would be the following: (1) the
United States is the
only candidate for contemporary hegemon, and world order needs a hegemon willing and able to
serve as world policeman, even one that makes some policy errors9; (2) in major respects U.S. culture is highly
attractive, which is fortunate since it is not easily alterable, but it does need to be advertised and applied with care and restraint abroad; (3)
Americans have become very competent at warfighting, but that prowess has not extended across the whole of the conflict spectrum. In
common with all great powers in the past, the United States has to learn to cope with occasional policy failure .
Failure through human
error or sheer incompetence, friction, and bad luck should not be mistaken for precipitate decline.
Too many commentators today are proclaiming the end of American hegemony. It is true that there
are visible 6 trends hostile to U.S. hegemony, the well-announced “rise of “ China and India, and one
day, just possibly, the EU/Europe, and even a long-delayed Japan and Brazil. But for the time being
and for many years to come, the United States will be the hegemon. This is to say that it will be the
global leader, certainly the most important player, in any matter of grave significance for
international security. This will be what one might call a default reality. It is, and will be, a consequence of conscious
American choice and effort. Also, U.S. leadership, notwithstanding the exception of its behavior towards Iraq, will rest upon a base provided by
broad global consent, albeit not always of an enthusiastic kind.
2ac-Heg Solves War
Hegemony prevents the escalation of global hotspots - retrenchment causes bickering
internationally over leadership and prevents cooperation.
Zbigniew K. Brzezinski , February 2012, CSIS counselor and trustee and cochairs the CSIS Advisory Board. He is also the Robert E.
Osgood Professor of American Foreign Policy at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, in Washington, D.C.
He is cochair of the American Committee for Peace in the Caucasus and a member of the International Advisory Board of the Atlantic Council.
He is a former chairman of the American-Ukrainian Advisory Committee. He was a member of the Policy Planning Council of the Department of
State from 1966 to 1968; chairman of the Humphrey Foreign Policy Task Force in the 1968 presidential campaign; director of the Trilateral
Commission from 1973 to 1976; and principal foreign policy adviser to Jimmy Carter in the 1976 presidential campaign. From 1977 to 1981, Dr.
Brzezinski was national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter. In 1981, he was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom for his role in
the normalization of U.S.-China relations and for his contributions to the human rights and national security policies of the United States. He was
also a member of the President’s Chemical Warfare Commission (1985), the National Security Council–Defense Department Commission on
Integrated Long-Term Strategy (1987–1988), and the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (1987–1989). In 1988, he was cochairman
of the Bush National Security Advisory Task Force, and in 2004, he was cochairman of a Council on Foreign Relations task force that issued the
report Iran: Time for a New Approach. Dr. Brzezinski received a B.A. and M.A. from McGill University (1949, 1950) and Ph.D. from Harvard
University (1953). He was a member of the faculties of Columbia University (1960–1989) and Harvard University (1953–1960). Dr. Brzezinski
holds honorary degrees from Georgetown University, Williams College, Fordham University, College of the Holy Cross, Alliance College, the
Catholic University of Lublin, Warsaw University, and Vilnius University. He is the recipient of numerous honors and awards, “After America”
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/03/after_america?page=0,0
For if
America falters, the world is unlikely to be dominated by a single preeminent successor -- not even China. International
uncertainty, increased tension among global competitors, and even outright chaos would be far more likely outcomes. While a
sudden, massive crisis of the American system -- for instance, another financial crisis -- would produce a fast-moving chain reaction leading to
global political and economic disorder,
a steady drift by America into increasingly pervasive decay or endlessly widening
warfare with Islam would be unlikely to produce, even by 2025, an effective global successor. No single power will be
ready by then to exercise the role that the world, upon the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, expected the United States to play: the leader of a
new, globally cooperative world order. More
probable would be a protracted phase of rather inconclusive
realignments of both global and regional power, with no grand winners and many more losers, in a
setting of international uncertainty and even of potentially fatal risks to global well-being. Rather than a
world where dreams of democracy flourish, a Hobbesian world of enhanced national security based on varying fusions of authoritarianism,
nationalism, and religion could ensue. RELATED 8 Geopolitically Endangered Species The leaders of the world's second-rank powers, among
them India,
Japan, Russia, and some European countries, are already assessing the potential impact of
U.S. decline on their respective national interests. The Japanese, fearful of an assertive China dominating the Asian mainland, may be
thinking of closer links with Europe. Leaders in India and Japan may be considering closer political and even military cooperation in case
America falters and China rises. Russia, while perhaps engaging in wishful thinking (even schadenfreude) about America's uncertain
prospects, will
almost certainly have its eye on the independent states of the former Soviet Union.
Europe, not yet cohesive, would likely be pulled in several directions: Germany and Italy toward Russia because of
commercial interests, France and insecure Central Europe in favor of a politically tighter European Union, and Britain toward manipulating a
balance within the EU while preserving its special relationship with a declining United States. Others
may move more rapidly to
carve out their own regional spheres: Turkey in the area of the old Ottoman Empire, Brazil in the Southern Hemisphere, and so
forth. None of these countries, however, will have the requisite combination of economic, financial,
technological, and military power even to consider inheriting America's leading role. China, invariably
mentioned as America's prospective successor, has an impressive imperial lineage and a strategic tradition of carefully calibrated patience, both
of which have been critical to its overwhelmingly successful, several-thousand-year-long history. China thus prudently accepts the existing
international system, even if it does not view the prevailing hierarchy as permanent. It recognizes that success depends not on the system's
dramatic collapse but on its evolution toward a gradual redistribution of power. Moreover, the basic reality is that China
is not yet
ready to assume in full America's role in the world. Beijing's leaders themselves have repeatedly emphasized that on every
important measure of development, wealth, and power, China will still be a modernizing and developing state several
decades from now, significantly behind not only the United States but also Europe and Japan in the
major per capita indices of modernity and national power. Accordingly, Chinese leaders have been
restrained in laying any overt claims to global leadership. At some stage, however, a more assertive
Chinese nationalism could arise and damage China's international interests. A swaggering, nationalistic Beijing
would unintentionally mobilize a powerful regional coalition against itself. None of China's key neighbors -India, Japan, and Russia -- is ready to acknowledge China's entitlement to America's place on the global totem pole. They might even
seek support from a waning America to offset an overly assertive China. The resulting regional
scramble could become intense, especially given the similar nationalistic tendencies among China's
neighbors. A phase of acute international tension in Asia could ensue. Asia of the 21st century could then
begin to resemble Europe of the 20th century -- violent and bloodthirsty. At the same time, the security of
a number of weaker states located geographically next to major regional powers also depends on the international
status quo reinforced by America's global preeminence -- and would be made significantly more vulnerable in proportion
to America's decline. The states in that exposed position -- including Georgia, Taiwan, South Korea, Belarus, Ukraine,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Israel, and the greater Middle East -- are today's geopolitical equivalents of nature's most
endangered species. Their fates are closely tied to the nature of the international environment left behind
by a waning America, be it ordered and restrained or, much more likely, self-serving and
expansionist. A faltering United States could also find its strategic partnership with Mexico in
jeopardy. America's economic resilience and political stability have so far mitigated many of the challenges posed by such sensitive
neighborhood issues as economic dependence, immigration, and the narcotics trade. A decline in American power, however,
would likely undermine the health and good judgment of the U.S. economic and political systems. A
waning United States would likely be more nationalistic, more defensive about its national identity,
more paranoid about its homeland security, and less willing to sacrifice resources for the sake of
others' development. The worsening of relations between a declining America and an internally troubled Mexico could even give rise
to a particularly ominous phenomenon: the emergence, as a major issue in nationalistically aroused Mexican politics, of territorial claims
justified by history and ignited by cross-border incidents. Another
consequence of American decline could be a
corrosion of the generally cooperative management of the global commons -- shared interests such as
sea lanes, space, cyberspace, and the environment, whose protection is imperative to the long-term
growth of the global economy and the continuation of basic geopolitical stability. In almost every case, the
potential absence of a constructive and influential U.S. role would fatally undermine the essential
communality of the global commons because the superiority and ubiquity of American power creates
order where there would normally be conflict. None of this will necessarily come to pass. Nor is the concern that America's
decline would generate global insecurity, endanger some vulnerable states, and produce a more troubled North American neighborhood an
argument for U.S. global supremacy. In fact, the strategic complexities of the world in the 21st century make such supremacy unattainable. But
those dreaming today of America's collapse would probably come to regret it. And as the world
after America would be
increasingly complicated and chaotic, it is imperative that the United States pursue a new, timely strategic vision for its foreign
policy -- or start bracing itself for a dangerous slide into global turmoil.
History is on our side – there’s zero chance that war erupts or escalates in a world of
the aff – there is only a risk of war if you vote neg.
Bradley A. Thayer, 2007, Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State
University, American Empire, Routledge, p. 45
Peace, like good health, is not often noticed, but certainly is missed when absent. Throughout
history, peace and stability
have been a major benefit of empires. In fact, pax Romana in Latin means the Roman peace, or the stabil-ity brought about by
the Roman Empire. Rome’s power was so overwhelming that no one could challenge it successfully for hundreds of years. The result was
stability within the Roman Empire. Where Rome conquered, peace, law, order, education, a common language, and much else followed. That
was true of the British Empire (pax Britannica) too. So it is
with the United States today. Peace and stability are
major benefits of the American Empire. The fact that America is so powerful actually reduces the
likelihood of major war. Scholars of international politics have found that the presence of a dominant
state in international politics actually reduces the likelihood of war because weaker states, including
even great powers, know that it is unlikely that they could challenge the dominant state and win. They
may resort to other mechanisms or tactics to challenge the dominant coun-try, but are unlikely to do so directly. This means that there
will be no wars between great powers. At least, not until a challenger (certainly China) thinks it can overthrow the dominant
state (the United States). But there will be intense security competition—both China and the United States will watch each other closely, with
their intelligence communities increasingly focused on each other, their diplomats striving to ensure that countries around the world do not align
with the other, and their militaries seeing the other as their principal threat. This is not unusual in international politics but, in fact, is its
“normal” condition. Americans may not pay much attention to it until a crisis occurs. But right now states are competing with one another. This
is because international politics does not sleep; it never takes a rest.
Prefer our internal links – explains the last five centuries of global hegemons.
Daniel Drezner, 2001, professor of international politics at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts
Universit, “State structure, technological leadership and the maintenance of hegemony,”
http://www.danieldrezner.com/research/tech.pdf
In this decade, proponents of globalization argue that because information and capital are mobile, the location of innovation has been rendered
unimportant.6 While this notion has some popular appeal, the globalization thesis lacks theoretical or empirical support. Theoretically, even in a
world of perfect information and perfect capital mobility,
economists have shown that the location of technological
innovation matters.7 Empirically, the claims of globalization proponents have been far-fetched. Capital is not perfectly mobile, and
increased economic exchange does not lead to a seamless transfer of technology from one country to another.8 The location of innovation still
matters. Long-cycle theorists
have paid the most attention to the link between technological innovation,
economic growth, and the rise and fall of hegemons.9 They argue that the past five hundred years of the
global political economy can be explained by the waxing and waning of hegemonic powers. Countries
acquire hegemonic status because they are the first to develop a cluster of technologies in leading
sectors. These innovations generate spillover effects to the rest of the lead economy, and then to the global economy. Over time, these
‘technological hegemons’ fail to maintain the rate of innovations, leading to a period of strife until a
new hegemonic power is found.
Statistical backing indicates hegemony has decreased wars since WW2.
John M. Owen, 2-11-2011, Professor of Politics at University of Virginia PhD from Harvard, "DON’T
DISCOUNT HEGEMONY," www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/
Andrew Mack
and his colleagues at the Human Security Report Project are to be congratulated. Not only do they present a
study with a striking conclusion, driven by data, free of theoretical or ideological bias, but they also do
something quite unfashionable: they bear good news. Social scientists really are not supposed to do that. Our job is, if not to be
Malthusians, then at least to point out disturbing trends, looming catastrophes, and the imbecility and mendacity of policy makers. And then it is
to say why, if people listen to us, things will get better. We do this as if our careers depended upon it, and perhaps they do; for if all is going to
be well, what need then for us? Our colleagues at Simon Fraser University are brave indeed. That may sound like a setup, but it is not. I shall
challenge neither the data nor the general conclusion that violent
conflict around the world has been decreasing in fits
and starts since the Second World War. When it comes to violent conflict among and within
countries, things have been getting better. (The trends have not been linear—Figure 1.1 actually shows that the frequency of
interstate wars peaked in the 1980s—but the 65-year movement is clear.) Instead I shall accept that Mack et al. are correct on the macro-trends,
and focus on their explanations they advance for these remarkable trends. With apologies to any readers of this forum who recoil from academic
debates, this might get mildly theoretical and even more mildly methodological. Concerning international wars, one version of the “nuclearpeace” theory is not in fact laid to rest by the data. It is certainly true that nuclear-armed states have been involved in many wars. They have
even been attacked (think of Israel), which falsifies the simple claim of “assured destruction”—that any nuclear country A will deter any kind of
attack by any country B because B fears a retaliatory nuclear strike from A. But the most important “nuclear-peace” claim has been about
mutually assured destruction, which obtains between two robustly nuclear-armed states. The claim is that (1) rational states having second-strike
capabilities—enough deliverable nuclear weaponry to survive a nuclear first strike by an enemy—will have an overwhelming incentive not to
attack one another; and (2) we can safely assume that nuclear-armed states are rational. It follows that states with a second-strike capability will
not fight one another. Their colossal atomic arsenals neither kept the United States at peace with North Vietnam during the Cold War nor the
Soviet Union at peace with Afghanistan. But the argument remains strong that those arsenals did help keep the United States and Soviet Union
at peace with each other. Why non-nuclear states are not deterred from fighting nuclear states is an important and open question. But in a time
when calls to ban the Bomb are being heard from more and more quarters, we must be clear about precisely what the broad trends toward peace
can and cannot tell us. They may tell us nothing about why we have had no World War III, and little about the wisdom of banning the Bomb
now. Regarding
the downward trend in international war, Professor Mack is friendlier to more
palatable theories such as the “democratic peace” (democracies do not fight one another, and the
proportion of democracies has increased, hence less war); the interdependence or “commercial peace”
(states with extensive economic ties find it irrational to fight one another , and interdependence has increased,
hence less war); and the notion that people around the world are more anti-war than their forebears were. Concerning the downward trend in
civil wars, he favors theories of economic growth (where commerce is enriching enough people, violence is less appealing—a logic similar to
that of the “commercial peace” thesis that applies among nations) and the end of the Cold War (which end reduced superpower support for rival
rebel factions in so many Third-World countries). These are all plausible mechanisms for peace. What is more, none of them
excludes any other; all could be working toward the same end. That would be somewhat puzzling, however. Is the world just lucky these days?
How is it that an array of peace-inducing factors happens to be working coincidentally in our time,
when such a magical array was absent in the past? The answer may be that one or more of these
mechanisms reinforces some of the others, or perhaps some of them are mutually reinforcing. Some scholars, for example,
have been focusing on whether economic growth might support democracy and vice versa, and whether both might support international
cooperation, including to end civil wars. We
would still need to explain how this charmed circle of causes got
started, however. And here let me raise another factor, perhaps even less appealing than the “nuclear peace” thesis, at
least outside of the United States. That factor is what international relations scholars call hegemony—specifically American hegemony.
A theory that many regard as discredited, but that refuses to go away, is called hegemonic stability
theory. The theory emerged in the 1970s in the realm of international political economy. It asserts that for the global economy to remain
open—for countries to keep barriers to trade and investment low—one powerful country must take the lead. Depending on the theorist we
consult, “taking the lead” entails paying for global public goods (keeping the sea lanes open, providing liquidity to the international economy),
coercion (threatening to raise trade barriers or withdraw military protection from countries that cheat on the rules), or both. The theory is
skeptical that international cooperation in economic matters can emerge or endure absent a hegemon. The
distastefulness of such
claims is self-evident: they imply that it is good for everyone the world over if one country has more
wealth and power than others. More precisely, they imply that it has been good for the world that
the United States has been so predominant. There is no obvious reason why hegemonic stability theory could not apply to
other areas of international cooperation, including in security affairs, human rights, international law, peacekeeping (UN or otherwise), and so
on. What I want to suggest here—suggest, not test—is that American
hegemony might just be a deep cause of the
steady decline of political deaths in the world. How could that be? After all, the report states that United States is the third
most war-prone country since 1945. Many of the deaths depicted in Figure 10.4 were in wars that involved the United States (the Vietnam War
being the leading one). Notwithstanding politicians’ claims to the contrary, a candid look at U.S. foreign policy reveals that the country is as
ruthlessly self-interested as any other great power in history. The answer is that U.S.
hegemony might just be a deeper cause
of the proximate causes outlined by Professor Mack. Consider economic growth and openness to
foreign trade and investment, which (so say some theories) render violence irrational. American power and policies
may be responsible for these in two related ways. First, at least since the 1940s Washington has prodded
other countries to embrace the market capitalism that entails economic openness and produces sustainable economic
growth. The United States promotes capitalism for selfish reasons, of course: its own domestic system depends upon growth, which in turn
depends upon the efficiency gains from economic interaction with foreign countries, and the more the better. During the Cold War most of its
allies accepted some degree of market-driven growth. Second, the
U.S.-led western victory in the Cold
Otherwise – status based great power conflict is inevitable – relative lead key to
prevent global conflict.
William C. Wohlforth, 2009, a professor of government at Dartmouth College, “Unipolarity, Status
Competition, and Great Power War” Project Muse
Second, I question the dominant view that status quo evaluations are relatively independent of the distribution of capabilities. If the
status
of states depends in some measure on their relative capabilities, and if states derive utility from status, then different
distributions of capabilities may affect levels of satisfaction, just as different income distributions may affect levels of status competition in
domestic settings. 6 Building on research in psychology and sociology, I argue that even
capabilities distributions among
major powers foster ambiguous status hierarchies, which generate more dissatisfaction and clashes
over the status quo. And the more stratified the distribution of capabilities, the less likely such status
competition is. Unipolarity thus generates far fewer incentives than either bipolarity or multipolarity
for direct great power positional competition over status. Elites in the other major powers continue
to prefer higher status, but in a unipolar system they face comparatively weak incentives to translate
that preference into costly action. And the absence of such incentives matters because social status
is a positional good—something whose value depends on how much one has in relation to others.7 “If everyone has high status,”
Randall Schweller notes, “no one does.”8 While one actor might increase its status, all cannot simultaneously do so. High status is thus
inherently scarce, and competitions for status tend to be zero sum.9 I begin by describing the puzzles facing predominant theories that status
competition might solve. Building on recent research on social identity and status seeking, I then show that under certain conditions the ways
decision makers identify with the states they represent may prompt them to frame issues as positional disputes over status in a social hierarchy. I
develop hypotheses that tailor this scholarship to the domain of great power politics, showing how the probability of status competition is likely
to be linked to polarity. The rest of the article investigates whether there is sufficient evidence for these hypotheses to warrant further refinement
and testing. I pursue this in three ways: by showing that the theory advanced here is consistent with what we know about large-scale patterns of
great power conflict through history; by [End Page 30] demonstrating that the causal mechanisms it identifies did drive relatively secure major
powers to military conflict in the past (and therefore that they might do so again if the world were bipolar or multipolar); and by showing that
observable evidence concerning the major powers’ identity politics and grand strategies under unipolarity are consistent with the theory’s
expectations. Puzzles of Power and War Recent research on the connection between the distribution of capabilities and war has concentrated on
a hypothesis long central to systemic theories of power transition or hegemonic stability: that major
war arises out of a power
shift in favor of a rising state dissatisfied with a status quo defended by a declining satisfied state.10 Though they have
garnered substantial empirical support, these theories have yet to solve two intertwined empirical and theoretical puzzles—each of which might
be explained by positional concerns for status. First, if the material costs and benefits of a given status quo are what matters, why would a state
be dissatisfied with the very status quo that had abetted its rise? The rise of China today naturally prompts this question, but it is hardly a novel
situation. Most of
the best known and most consequential power transitions in history featured rising
challengers that were prospering mightily under the status quo. In case after case, historians argue
that these revisionist powers sought recognition and standing rather than specific alterations to the
existing rules and practices that constituted the order of the day. In each paradigmatic case of hegemonic war, the
claims of the rising power are hard to reduce to instrumental adjustment of the status quo. In R. Ned Lebow’s reading, for example, Thucydides’
account tells us that the rise of Athens posed unacceptable threats not to the security or welfare of Sparta but rather to its identity as leader of the
Greek world, which was an important cause of the Spartan assembly’s vote for war.11 The issues that inspired Louis XIV’s and Napoleon’s
dissatisfaction with the status quo were many and varied, but most accounts accord [End Page 31] independent importance to the drive for a
position of unparalleled primacy. In these and other hegemonic struggles among leading states in post-Westphalian Europe, the rising
challenger’s dissatisfaction is often difficult to connect to the material costs and benefits of the status quo, and much contemporary evidence
revolves around issues of recognition and status.12 Wilhemine Germany is a fateful case in point. As Paul Kennedy has argued, underlying
material trends as of 1914 were set to propel Germany’s continued rise indefinitely, so long as Europe remained at peace.13 Yet Germany
chafed under the very status quo that abetted this rise and its elite focused resentment on its chief trading partner—the great power that
presented the least plausible threat to its security: Great Britain. At fantastic cost, it built a battleship fleet with no plausible strategic purpose
other than to stake a claim on global power status.14 Recent historical studies present strong evidence that, far from fearing attacks from Russia
and France, German leaders sought to provoke them, knowing that this would lead to a long, expensive, and sanguinary war that Britain was
certain to join.15 And of all the motivations swirling round these momentous decisions, no serious historical account fails to register German
leaders’ oft-expressed yearning for “a place in the sun.” The second puzzle is bargaining failure. Hegemonic theories tend to model war as a
conflict over the status quo without specifying precisely what the status quo is and what flows of benefits it provides to states.16 Scholars
generally follow Robert Gilpin in positing that the underlying issue concerns a “desire to redraft the rules by which relations among nations
work,” “the nature and governance of the system,” and “the distribution of territory among the states in the system.”17 If these are the [End
Page 32] issues at stake, then systemic theories of hegemonic war and power transition confront the puzzle brought to the fore in a seminal
article by James Fearon: what prevents states from striking a bargain that avoids the costs of war? 18 Why can’t states renegotiate the
international order as underlying capabilities distributions shift their relative bargaining power? Fearon proposed that one answer consistent
with strict rational choice assumptions is that such bargains are infeasible when the issue at stake is indivisible and cannot readily be portioned
out to each side. Most aspects of a given international order are readily divisible, however, and, as Fearon stressed, “both the intrinsic
complexity and richness of most matters over which states negotiate and the availability of linkages and side-payments suggest that intermediate
bargains typically will exist.”19 Thus, most scholars have assumed that the indivisibility problem is trivial, focusing on two other rational
choice explanations for bargaining failure: uncertainty and the commitment problem.20 In the view of many scholars, it is these problems,
rather than indivisibility, that likely explain leaders’ inability to avail themselves of such intermediate bargains. Yet recent research inspired by
constructivism shows how issues that are physically divisible can become socially indivisible, depending on how they relate to the identities of
decision makers.21 Once issues surrounding the status quo are framed in positional terms as bearing on the disputants’ relative standing, then, to
the extent that they value their standing itself, they may be unwilling to pursue intermediate bargaining solutions. Once linked to status, easily
divisible issues that theoretically provide opportunities for linkages and side payments of various sorts may themselves be seen as indivisible
and thus unavailable as avenues for possible intermediate bargains. The historical record surrounding major wars is War
damaged the
credibility of alternative paths to development—communism and import-substituting industrialization being the two leading
ones—and left market capitalism the best model. The end of the Cold War also involved an end to the billions of rubles in
Soviet material support for regimes that tried to make these alternative models work. (It also, as Professor Mack notes, eliminated the
superpowers’ incentives to feed civil violence in the Third World.) What we call globalization is caused in part by the emergence of the United
States as the global hegemon. The same case can be made, with somewhat more difficulty, concerning the spread of democracy.
Washington has supported democracy only under certain conditions—the chief one being the absence of a popular antiAmerican movement in the target state—but those conditions have become much more widespread following the collapse of communism. Thus
in the 1980s the Reagan administration—the most anti-communist government America ever had—began to dump America’s old dictator
friends, starting in the Philippines. Today
Islamists tend to be anti-American, and so the Obama administration
is skittish about democracy in Egypt and other authoritarian Muslim countries. But general U.S.
material and moral support for liberal democracy remains strong. rich with evidence suggesting that positional
concerns over status frustrate bargaining: expensive, protracted conflict over what appear to be minor issues; a propensity on the part of decision
makers to frame issues in terms of relative rank even when doing so makes bargaining harder; decision-makers’ [End Page 33] inability to
accept feasible divisions of the matter in dispute even when failing to do so imposes high costs; demands on the part of states for observable
evidence to confirm their estimate of an improved position in the hierarchy; the inability of private bargains to resolve issues; a frequently
observed compulsion for the public attainment of concessions from a higher ranked state; and stubborn resistance on the part of states to which
such demands are addressed even when acquiescence entails limited material cost. The literature on bargaining failure in the context of power
shifts remains inconclusive, and it is premature to take any empirical pattern as necessarily probative. Indeed, Robert Powell has recently
proposed that indivisibility is not a rationalistic explanation for war after all: fully rational leaders with perfect information should prefer to
settle a dispute over an indivisible issue by resorting to a lottery rather than a war certain to destroy some of the goods in dispute. What might
prevent such bargaining solutions is not indivisibility itself, he argues, but rather the parties’ inability to commit to abide by any agreement in
the future if they expect their relative capabilities to continue to shift.22 This is the credible commitment problem to which many theorists are
now turning their attention. But how it relates to the information problem that until recently dominated the formal literature remains to be
seen.23 The larger point is that positional concerns for status may help account for the puzzle of bargaining failure. In the rational choice
bargaining literature, war is puzzling because it destroys some of the benefits or flows of benefits in dispute between the bargainers, who would
be better off dividing the spoils without war. Yet what happens to these models if what matters for states is less the flows of material benefits
themselves than their implications for relative status? The salience of this question depends on the relative importance of positional concern for
status among states. Do Great Powers Care about Status? Mainstream theories generally posit that states come to blows over an international
status quo only when it has implications for their security or material well-being. The guiding assumption is that a state’s satisfaction [End Page
34] with its place in the existing order is a function of the material costs and benefits implied by that status.24 By that assumption, once a state’s
status in an international order ceases to affect its material wellbeing, its relative standing will have no bearing on decisions for war or peace.
But the assumption is undermined by cumulative research in disciplines ranging from neuroscience
and evolutionary biology to economics, anthropology, sociology, and psychology that human beings
are powerfully motivated by the desire for favorable social status comparisons. This research
suggests that the preference for status is a basic disposition rather than merely a strategy for attaining other goals.25
People often seek tangibles not so much because of the welfare or security they bring but because of the social status they confer. Under
certain conditions, the search for status will cause people to behave in ways that directly contradict
their material interest in security and/or prosperity.
2ac-a2 transition wars
Uniqueness is all on our side—high hegemony means less violence and war but a
decline shreds global cooperation – no smooth transition.
Randall L. Schweller, December 2009, professor of political science at Ohio State University, “Ennui Becomes
Us,” http://nationalinterest.org/article/ennui-becomes-us-3330?page=show
AND AS
power devolves throughout the international system, new actors will emerge and develop to compete with
states as power centers. Along these lines, Richard Haass claims that we have entered an "age of nonpolarity," in which states
"are being challenged from above, by regional and global organizations; from below, by militias; and from the side, by a variety of
nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and corporations." Of course, there is nothing especially new about this observation; cosmopolitan
liberals have been pronouncing (prematurely, in my view) the demise of the nation-state-the so-called "hollow state" and a crisis of state powerand the rise of nonstate actors for many decades. What is new is that even state-centric realists like Fareed Zakaria are now predicting a postAmerican world, in which international order is no longer a matter decided solely by the political and military power held by a single hegemon
or even a group of leading states. Instead, the coming
world will be governed by messy ad hoc arrangements
composed of à la carte multilateralism and networked interactions among state and nonstate actors. One wonders what order
and concerted action mean in a world that lacks fixed and predictable structures and relationships. Given the haphazard and
incomplete manner by which the vacuum of lost state power is being filled, why expect order at all ?
THE MACROPICTURE that emerges from these global trends is one of historically unprecedented change in a direction consistent with
increasing entropy: unprecedented hegemonic decline; an unprecedented transfer of wealth, knowledge and economic power from West to East;
unprecedented information flows; and an unprecedented rise in the number and kinds of important actors. Thus, the
onset of this
extreme multipolarity or multi-multipolarity will not herald, as some observers believe, a return to the past.
To the contrary, it will signal that maximum entropy is setting in, that the ultimate state of inert uniformity and unavailable energy is coming,
that time does have a direction in international politics and that there is
no going back because the initial conditions of the system have
it will have ended. Its deep structure of
anarchy-the lack of a sovereign arbiter to make and enforce agreements among states-will remain. But increasing entropy will result in a
world full of fierce international competition and corporate warfare; continued extremism; low
levels of trust; the formation of nonstate identities that frustrate purposeful and concerted national actions; and new nongeographic
been lost forever. If and when we reach such a point in time, much of international politics as we know
political spaces that bypass the state, favor low-intensity-warfare strategies and undermine traditional alliance groupings. Most important,
entropy will reduce and diffuse usable power in the system, dramatically
reshaping the landscape of international
politics. The United States will see its relative power diminish, while others will see their power rise. To avoid crises and confrontation, these
ongoing tectonic changes must be reflected in the superstructure of international authority. Increasing entropy, however, means that the
antiquated global architecture will only grow more and more creaky and resistant to overhaul. No
one will know where authority resides because it will not reside anywhere; and without authority, there can be
no governance of any kind. The already-overcrowded and chaotic landscape will continue to be filled with more meaningless stuff; and the
specter of international cooperation, if it was ever anything more than an apparition, will die a slow but sure death.
2ac-Waterways not resilient
U.S. waterways lack resiliency any threat to the system will threaten the U.S. economy
– investment is key.
ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers), January 2009, Report Card For America's Infrastructure , “Inland
Waterways,” p. 88, Ebsco Host
The current
system of inland waterways lacks resilience. Waterway usage is increas-ing, but facilities
are aging and many are well past their design life of 50 years. Recov-ery from any event of significance
would be negatively impacted by the age and dete-riorating condition of the system, posing a direct
threat to the American economy. Conclusion Inland and intracoastal waterways directly serve 38 states
including the states on the Atlantic seaboard, the Gulf Coast, and the Pacific Northwest. Ship-pers and consumers in these states depend on the
inland waterways to
move approxi-mately 630 million tons of cargo valued at more than $73 billion
annually. States on the Gulf Coast and throughout the Mid-west and Ohio Valley especially depend on the inland and intracoastal
waterways. Texas and Louisiana each ship more than $10 billion worth of cargo annually, while Illinois, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Alabama, and Wash-ington State each ship between $2 billion and $10 billion annually. Another 8 states ship at least $1
billion annually. This system provides an average trans-portation savings of $10.67 per ton over the cost of shipping by alternative modes. This
translates into more than $7 billion annually in transportation savings to the U.S. econ-omy. Future
investment must focus on life-cycle maintenance, system interdepen-dencies, redundancy, security,
and recovery from natural and man-made hazards.
Inland waterways allow us to compete in terms of military mobility with Europe.
Donald E. Jackson Jr. & John F. Troxell, 3-30-2007, Colonel in the United States Army, economics instructor
at the U. S. Military Academy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, held assignments in the Department
of Army War Plans Division and as a force planner for the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and
Requirements, “Leveraging the Strategic Value of the U.S Inland Waterway System,” USAWC STRATEGY
RESEARCH PROJECT, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA469583
Inland waterways present a possible alternative to overland transport that has been underutilized in
the past. The EU recognizes and relies upon their existing water highways, committing to a more
balanced approach for future transport. The core network links the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg, France,
Germany, and Austria via a myriad of easily accessible rivers and canals, carrying cargo such as heavy materials, bulk
industrial goods, building products, containers, oversized loads, and waste. Inland waterway transport in the EU has
experienced a growth rate of 17% over the past decade. 48 Inland waterways are a strategic asset to
the nation, enabling the U.S. to significantly increase economic output in both domestic and
international markets, and project military power more rapidly and effectively into the 21 st Century. Over the
next 20 years economists estimate that inland navigation will increase by more than 35%. 49
2acs-Counterplans
2ac-Trains/Trucks CP
Better than rails or trucks too much pollution
Gibbs, 12
Bob Gibbs 4/13/2012, Subcommittee Chairman RE: Hearing on "How Reliability of the Inland Waterway
System Impacts Economic Competitiveness."
http://republicans.transportation.house.gov/Media/file/112th/Water/Water%20Briefing%20Memo%20
%204-18-12.pdf
Benefits of the Inland Waterways Transportation System are numerous. For instance, one 15-barge tow on a river can carry as
much cargo as 216 rail cars or 1,050 large trucks. If the cargo transported on the inland waterways
each year had to be moved by highways, it would require 58 million truck loads. A wholesale diversion
of waterway traffic to the nation's rail network would require 100,000 additional rail freight cars and
2,500 additional locomotives. Barges moving on waterways are safer, more fuel efficient, and less
polluting than other means of transportation. For example, on averaged, a gallon of fuel can move one ton of cargo 155
miles by truck, 413 miles by train, and 576 miles by barge. Due to these efficiencies, carbon dioxide emissions were 2.1 million metric tons less
in 2005 than if rail transportation had been used, and 14.4 million metric tons less than if trucks had been used.
Plan saves billons and alleviates congestion
Gibbs, 12
Bob Gibbs 4/13/2012, Subcommittee Chairman RE: Hearing on "How Reliability of the Inland Waterway
System Impacts Economic Competitiveness."
http://republicans.transportation.house.gov/Media/file/112th/Water/Water%20Briefing%20Memo%20
%204-18-12.pdf
Thirty-eight states are directly served by the nation's Inland Waterways Transportation System, constituting between 500
and 700 million tons of bulk commodities valued at more than $125 billion annually. At an average savings of more than
$12.00 per ton over an alternate overland mode, this equals $7 billion in annual transportation cost-savings.
Water transportation also has the potential to move huge amounts of cargo that could alleviate
congestion on major highway arteries, such as 1-95 on the Atlantic coast. For some goods, as much as 50% of the ultimate
price paid by the consumer is attributable to transportation costs. Keeping these costs low not only
benefits consumers here in the United States, it also makes products produced in the United States
more competitive on the world market. Congestion at an outdated lock on a waterway can result in
increased costs that rob the farmer or manufacturer of his or her profit. Delay and its associated costs
also can rob a farmer or manufacturer of his or her market. Agriculture products account for 22% of all
transported tonnage on the nation's Inland Waterways Transportation System.
Inland waterways are key to mitigate climate change- global and local climates.
C. Max Finlayson, Rebecca D’Cruz,”Inland Water Systems”, 2004 Ecosystems and Human Well-being:
Current State and Trends, http://www.maweb.org/documents/document.289.aspx.pdf
Inland water systems play two critical but contrasting roles in mitigating the effects of climate
change: the regulation of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) and the physical buffering of climate
change impacts. Inland water systems have been identified as significant storehouses (sinks) of
carbon as well as sources of carbon dioxide (such as boreal peatlands), as net sequesters of organic
carbon in sediments, and as transporters of carbon to the sea. Although covering an estimated 3–4% of the world’s
land area, peatlands are estimated to hold 540 gigatons of carbon, representing about 1.5% of the total estimated global carbon storage and about
25–30% of that contained in terrestrial vegetation and soils. Many
wetlands also sequester carbon from the
atmosphere through photosynthesis and act as traps for carbon-rich sediments from watershed
sources. It is likely that one of the most important roles of wetlands may be in the regulation of
global climate change through sequestering and releasing a major proportion of fixed carbon in the
biosphere. Inland waters also contribute to the regulation of local climates. Possibly the most widely
publicized example is that of the Aral Sea, where a combination of desiccation and pollution have
altered the local climate, with dire effects on human health. Similarly, the burning and degradation of peatland in
Southeast Asia have degraded the atmosphere and affected the health of a large but possibly indeterminate number of people if the long-term
effects on livelihoods as a consequence of the land degradation are considered. Getting
accurate measurements of such
effects and the number of people actually affected by changes in local climates is likely to prove
difficult in some instances due to an absence of data and the dispersed nature of some effects or the
population affected.
2ac-States CP
Federal government key
FEDERAL government key- uniformity, responsibility, and experience.
Department of Transportation, 2011 April America’s Marine Highway Report to Congress,
http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/MARAD_AMH_Report_to_Congress.pdf
The correct valuation of such benefits in planning and investment decisions could justify a much greater role for America’s Marine Highway as
part of a balanced national transportation system. USDOT,
with its responsibility to develop and implement national freight and
satisfy public needs across State and other jurisdictional
lines, is best positioned to see that this role is realized. The Federal government is also well-situated to
coordinate the development of national standards to ensure the compatibility of infrastructure and
equipment throughout the Marine Highway system. MARAD is currently working closely with other USDOT modal
passenger transportation strategies and target public resources to
administrations and the Office of the Secretary of Transportation to develop national transportation strategies that maximize the positive
contributions of Marine Highway services.
No solvency without federal action.
Colonel Donald E. Jackson, Jr. United States Army, 2007, LEVERAGING THE STRATEGIC VALUE OF THE
U.S. INLAND WATERWAY SYSTEM, www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA469583
The inland waterway system of the United States stands as a minimally exploited system
that, if optimized, could help eliminate the congestion of overland transport, pollution, and provide a low cost
alternative to long haul passages. The USDOT should aggressively promote inland waterways as an effective
alternative to overland transportation. U.S. Inland Waterway System stakeholders must embrace emerging
technologies that more efficiently manage traffic on inland waterways to mitigate lock-imposed delays. An intragovernmental approach to managing national water resources must be better integrated at the local, state, and federal
level, eliminating political impediments to system efficiency. Integrated planning to effectively link the national
transportation network with state and local intermodal infrastructure must be encouraged and managed strategically.
The federal government must lead efforts to develop adequate funding strategies, seeking public-private
collaboration, to maintain the investment streams that support new construction, operations, and maintenance of the
inland waterway system, making it a reliable and affordable means of transportation in the future. Inland waterway
infrastructure must be prioritized and resources focused on the most value- added gateways supporting objectives of
the national freight transportation system. Overall the system should be repaired and modernized and, in certain
cases, enlarged to meet the industry standard requirement for locks of 1200 feet. The federal government and the
USDOT, using an interagency approach, must continue to develop transportation strategies that encourage the
balanced growth of each industry sector, leading leads to more effective integration of inland waterway
transportation. The USTRANSCOM deployment and distribution model should be commercially replicated at the
national level to highlight alternative freight transportation planning opportunities that leverage the capabilities of
each transport mode. The USDOT must provide shippers incentives for increased use of inland waterways,
expanding container-on- barge opportunities to alleviate congestion and increase capacity of the freight
transportation system at the national level.
Federal action key
IBEW, ‘6 [“Another Bad Idea: Outsource Federal Lock and Dam Operations,” April 26,
http://www.ibew.org/articles/06daily/0604/060426_dams.htm]
More than 50 members of Congress have objected in writing to the Army Corps of Engineers’ plans to
privatize thousands of jobs at the country’s 230 federal locks and dams. They argue that the work of
operators should be re-classified as “inherently governmental” under federal law, and therefore the sole
domain of federal workers.
No jurisdiction
States don’t have jurisdiction—Commerce clause supersedes
Gibbs, 12
Bob Gibbs 4/13/2012, Subcommittee Chairman RE: Hearing on "How Reliability of the Inland Waterway
System Impacts Economic Competitiveness."
http://republicans.transportation.house.gov/Media/file/112th/Water/Water%20Briefing%20Memo%20
%204-18-12.pdf
Federal interest in navigation in the United States stems from the Commerce Clause of the
Constitution. The history of federal improvements to inland navigation in the United States dates back
to the 1820's when Congress authorized construction of a canal connecting Lake Michigan to the Illinois River and authorized
the United States Army Corps of Engineers to remove snags, debris, and other obstructions from the
Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. These rivers and coastal ports were the primary routes of commerce for the new nation.
States have no jurisdiction—interstate commerce
CRS 12
Inland Waterways: Recent Proposals and Issues for Congress Charles V. Stern Analyst in Natural
Resources Policy April 12, 2012, Congressional Research Report
The Inland Waterway System predates the founding of the nation itself. Before the onset of rail and
highway transport, inland waterways were a primary means of transporting bulk goods. Through the
early 1800s, inland waterway development was left to the states, until the Supreme Court gave the
United States authority over interstate commerce in 1824.4 Shortly thereafter, the federal
government began to provide funding and support to these waterways to improve interstate and
international commerce. Improvements in other forms of transportation, including rail and highway,
have decreased reliance on inland waterways as a means of commercial freight transportation, but
these waterways remain a significant component in the nation’s transportation mix for many bulk
commodities.
2ac-privatization cp
Government intervention key- external costs means markets fail.
Department of Transportation, 2011 April America’s Marine Highway Report to Congress,
http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/MARAD_AMH_Report_to_Congress.pdf
Markets are optimal for allocating resources when the costs and benefits of an activity are well understood and factored into an investment or
use decision such that the benefits of the activity are greater than its opportunity costs. Factors that affect market-based transportation decisions
by private users of the transportation system include shipping costs, reliability and frequency of service, time in transportation, insurance costs,
and quality of service. Other
costs and benefits of our transportation system, however, are not borne by the
private users who cause them. These costs and benefits are “external” to the user and typically will not
influence transportation decisions made by the user. Common costs and benefits that are either fully or partially external to a
transportation user’s decisions include the effect that the user's decision to transport freight on a highway has on the delay experienced by
all other users of that road, or certain effects that the choice of a transportation mode may have on jobs and the broader economy,
the environment, public health and safety, and national security. 13 Unless such factors are addressed
in comprehensive planning, investment, regulation, or market interventions, the full potential benefits of a
transportation mode to both private users and the public at large may not be realized.
Government action is key- the shift AWAY from inland waterways was due to market
assumptions.
Department of Transportation, 2011 April America’s Marine Highway Report to Congress,
http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/MARAD_AMH_Report_to_Congress.pdf
The shift to landside transportation modes from water transportation is attributable to a range of
factors too complicated to discuss adequately in this report, including (but not limited to) the completion of the Interstate Highway System,
use of larger and more specialized trucks and train cars, deregulation of motor carriers and railroads, changing technologies and logistics
practices, and the implementation of pipeline capacity for petroleum transport. A critical
factor contributing to the shift – the
inability of markets to fully capture social costs and benefits associated with the use of different
transportation modes – is described in this chapter.
Government intervention key.
Department of Transportation, 2011 April America’s Marine Highway Report to Congress,
http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/MARAD_AMH_Report_to_Congress.pdf
This Report to Congress is required by Sections 1121 and 1123 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (Energy Act). Section
1121 directs the Secretary of Transportation (Secretary) to establish a short sea transportation program and designate short sea transportation
projects under the program to mitigate landside congestion. The Maritime Administration (MARAD) has implemented this short sea
transportation program as the “America’s Marine Highway Program” (the Program). The
Program is intended to expand the
use of our inland, Great Lakes Saint Lawrence Seaway System, intracoastal, and coastal waterways for the transportation
of freight (loaded in containers and trailers) and passengers to mitigate landside congestion, reduce greenhouse
gas emissions per ton-mile of freight moved, and accomplish other objectives. The first section of this report
provides the justification for expanding the utilization of Marine Highway services. It describes the interests of the Federal government in
encouraging greater use of Marine Highways and, through the example of Europe, shows that government policy
can be
successful in achieving this result. An important point of this section is that the full range of public
benefits of Marine Highway services will not be realized based solely on market-driven
transportation choices.
2ac-Fees CP
User fees link to politics and don’t solve.
Stern, 2012 Inland Waterways: Recent Proposals and Issues for Congress Charles V. Stern Analyst in Natural
Resources Policy April 12, 2012, Congressional Research Service, google
The Administration argues that since commercial shippers are the primary beneficiary of waterway investments, they should continue to pay the
Congress have
previously rejected lock usage fees and similar proposals as posing unfair burdens on a subset of
waterway users, and have opposed the new Administration proposal.64 The IWUB argues that targeting users of
costs for new capital investments. Furthermore, since lock users benefit the most, they should pay the most. The IWUB and
individual segments runs counter to the idea of the inland waterways as a whole “system” whose interconnectivity benefits the nation.65
Additionally, users
note that major fee increases will significantly affect shippers operating within the
system.66 Finally, the user industry has also argued against the proposed new fee because it delegates
the authority to set fees to the Secretary of the Army, with certain restrictions .67
Links to politics- overwhelming opposition.
Glass, 2001 Obama proposes inland waterways financing program New user fee would generate $1.1 billion By
Pamela Glass 9/26/2011
The Waterways Council Inc., which is working with Congress to develop an infrastructure funding solution, opposes
any plan that involves a lockage fee. “Lockage fee proposals were offered and dismissed before in both the Obama
and Bush administrations, and were widely criticized by bipartisan members of Congress because they unfairly
penalize certain portions of the waterways system that have more locks than others, as well as consumers in those
regions who would pay more for the goods transiting those locks,” said Debra Colbert, WCI spokeswoman.
Doesn’t provide political cover.
Glass, 2001 Obama proposes inland waterways financing program New user fee would generate $1.1 billion By
Pamela Glass 9/26/2011
But both the administration’s fee (or, really, tax) and the development plan’s tax increase on diesel fuel and the
funding shift put Congress in a political dilemma. Republicans in the House have taken a strong public stand against
no new taxes while advocating spending cuts. Democrats must also show that they can take steps to reduce the
deficit. Neither of these proposals offers lawmakers much political cover in this partisan, budget-cutting
environment.
2ac-Disads
2ac- Spending
Waterways are comparatively cheaper than rail or truck
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/12078/ 1217742-113.stm]
Rivers provide a less expensive alternative to other transportation options. Barges are more than $14
a ton cheaper than using rail or truck, according to a 2010 report by a Corps-industry task force that recommended changes in
the way lock and dam projects are funded.
Deficit spending is key to the economy
Amit Mitra, Secretary General of India's Apex business Chamber, the Federation of Indian Chambers of
Commerce & Industry (FICCI), 7-08-09 http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/%5Cdo-fiscal-deficits-hurteconomic-growth%5C/363226/
Let us look at the various kinds of arguments made against deficits. The monetarists
argue that deficits crowd out private
borrowing, raise interest rates and cause inflation. So, they advocate you should not try and stimulate the economy but,
over a 5-8 year period, look at a steady and sustainable increase in money supply, and economic growth will follow. This post-Friedman
approach has been discredited after the financial meltdown, since the whole question of money supply
has fallen flat on its face. Liquidity vanished, banks failed and various federal authorities were taken by surprise at what was happening in
the world of finance capital. If the simplistic monetary theory has failed, we have no option but to stimulate in the fiscal
domain, which is what is happening in the US and Europe. Which brings us to the question of how much of a fiscal stimulus is bearable. The
US fiscal deficit is now likely to be 12.3 per cent of GDP in 2010 (the earlier prediction was 9-10 per cent); it is 15 per cent for the UK; six per
cent for Germany; seven per cent for Italy, Spain and France. So how are these countries able
to live with such high fiscal
deficits? Look at their 2009 and 2010 growth projections and that’s where the answer lies. For calendar
2009, the US economy will shrink 5.5 per cent, Germany 6 per cent, Italy 4.2 per cent and so on. In 2010, the projection is that
the US will be positive, UK 1 per cent, Japan 1.2 per cent … so we will have 0.5 to 2.5 per cent growth in the developed world in 2010.
With growth, the fiscal deficit will be taken care of. But why doesn’t the same logic apply to India, after all our growth
which is down to 6.7 per cent will also go back up to the 7-7.5 per cent range. The answer comes from Standard & Poor’s. According to S&P,
India has a structural deficit (due to the fertiliser- and fuel- subsidies), while the west has a transient one caused by the stimulus, and that will
go. But S&P does not talk of the US social security, medicare and other such social security … all of these increase during a downturn when
government revenues are strained. So the S&P argument that the US deficit is not structural is flawed. The US can’t reduce unemployment
benefits or increase the age-limits for medicare so easily — how is that any less structural? In India’s case, we have just increased the price of
fuel, so we are trying to tackle our structural deficit. S&P also argues that two things can help — funding the deficit through disinvestment and a
situation where the deficit generates demand. The fact that India’s growth is 6.7 per cent as compared to the 4.5 per cent projected by the IMF
would suggest the stimulus has indeed been demand-creating. In the last five years, direct taxes grew 29 per cent — so, when
economic
growth is high, tax collections respond very well. Hence, the cure is demand-stimulating fiscal
deficits. Economists also talk of a built-in stabiliser in countries like the US — if the economy tanks, welfare payments rise and tax
payments fall significantly as people move down tax brackets, and that ensures increased demand that acts contra-cyclically. Since this doesn’t
happen in India, we have no option apart from fiscal stimulus. Indeed, while India has a huge space to tackle deficits through
disinvestment and the additional revenues guaranteed through high growth, the west does not have this space. The developed world does not
have the tools to tackle its deficit, we do.
2ac-Trucks/Railroad disads
Trucks and rail cannot replace the use of barges in coal transportation.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’12 [Len Boselovic, “The Consol Energy towboat Aliquippa takes two barges of
sand up the Monongahela River to Monessen,” March 18, 2012,
http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/12078/ 1217742-113.stm]
Whatever the period of time needed, the 10 million tons of coal and other commodities that move
through the Elizabeth locks each year would have to be moved by rail or truck, which are more
expensive. Moreover, it would take more than 1,000 large trucks to move the same amount of coal a
standard 15-barge tow carries. "If the Lower Mon closes, there's not enough trucks to move the coal
power plants need," Mr. Harder said.
Better than rails or trucks too much pollution
Gibbs, 12
Bob Gibbs 4/13/2012, Subcommittee Chairman RE: Hearing on "How Reliability of the Inland Waterway
System Impacts Economic Competitiveness."
http://republicans.transportation.house.gov/Media/file/112th/Water/Water%20Briefing%20Memo%20
%204-18-12.pdf
Benefits of the Inland Waterways Transportation System are numerous. For instance, one 15-barge tow on a river can carry as
much cargo as 216 rail cars or 1,050 large trucks. If the cargo transported on the inland waterways
each year had to be moved by highways, it would require 58 million truck loads. A wholesale diversion
of waterway traffic to the nation's rail network would require 100,000 additional rail freight cars and
2,500 additional locomotives. Barges moving on waterways are safer, more fuel efficient, and less
polluting than other means of transportation. For example, on averaged, a gallon of fuel can move one ton of cargo 155
miles by truck, 413 miles by train, and 576 miles by barge. Due to these efficiencies, carbon dioxide emissions were 2.1 million metric tons less
in 2005 than if rail transportation had been used, and 14.4 million metric tons less than if trucks had been used.
Plan saves billons and alleviates congestion
Gibbs, 12
Bob Gibbs 4/13/2012, Subcommittee Chairman RE: Hearing on "How Reliability of the Inland Waterway
System Impacts Economic Competitiveness."
http://republicans.transportation.house.gov/Media/file/112th/Water/Water%20Briefing%20Memo%20
%204-18-12.pdf
Thirty-eight states are directly served by the nation's Inland Waterways Transportation System, constituting between 500
and 700 million tons of bulk commodities valued at more than $125 billion annually. At an average savings of more than
$12.00 per ton over an alternate overland mode, this equals $7 billion in annual transportation cost-savings.
Water transportation also has the potential to move huge amounts of cargo that could alleviate
congestion on major highway arteries, such as 1-95 on the Atlantic coast. For some goods, as much as 50% of the ultimate
price paid by the consumer is attributable to transportation costs. Keeping these costs low not only
benefits consumers here in the United States, it also makes products produced in the United States
more competitive on the world market. Congestion at an outdated lock on a waterway can result in
increased costs that rob the farmer or manufacturer of his or her profit. Delay and its associated costs
also can rob a farmer or manufacturer of his or her market. Agriculture products account for 22% of all
transported tonnage on the nation's Inland Waterways Transportation System.
2ac-Politics
The plan is bipart.
Hettel, April 18 Congressional Documents and Publications April 18, 2012 SECTION: U.S. HOUSE OF
REPRESENTATIVES DOCUMENTS LENGTH: 1150 words HEADLINE: House Transportation and
Infrastructure Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment Hearing; "How Reliability of the Inland
Waterway System Impacts Economic Competitiveness."; Testimony by Martin Hettel, Senior Manager, American
Electric Power River Operations
AEP River Operations and hundreds of other companies and organizations believe that one critically important step that Congress should take to
address this situation is to approve and send to the President for his signature H.R. 4342, the "Waterways Are Vital for the Economy, Energy,
Efficiency, and Environment Act of 2012". This
legislation, which Congressman Ed Whitfield from Kentucky and Congressman Jerry
Costello from Illinois--a member of this important Subcommittee--and others have introduced on a bipartisan basis,
would put in place what we believe is a balanced, comprehensive, workable 20-year inland waterway
system modernization investment program for the Nation. A second critical step Congress should take is to assure on a
continuing basis that the Corps of Engineers is provided with adequate operation and maintenance funds to keep the Ohio River and the
remainder of the inland waterway system functioning at an optimal level. Our Nation's inland waterways are too important to do anything less.
Congress loves rivers and wild life.
The Seattle Times, Friday, June 22, 2012, “Congress gets scaled-back Olympic Peninsula proposal”,
http://www.wenatcheeworld.com/news/2012/jun/22/congress-gets-scaled-back-olympic-peninsula/
Key leaders of Washington’s congressional delegation introduced legislation intended to protect
Olympic Peninsula forests and rivers from logging, dams and other development. Three years in the negotiating, the Wild
Olympics Wilderness and Wild and Scenic River Act of 2012 was introduced Thursday by U.S. Sen. Patty Murray and U.S. Rep. Norm Dicks,
D-Bremerton. The bill is a far cry from the original and more controversial version proposed in 2010 by conservationists but still takes big steps
to permanently protect some of the Olympics’ most beloved landscapes. “The amazing natural treasures in the Olympic Peninsula are among the
crown jewels of our state, and the Wild Olympics proposal will build on the strong foundation of conservation that has been laid down over
generations,” Murray said in a news release. The legislation would create 126,554 acres of new wilderness on Olympic National Forest lands,
including 93,959 acres of old-growth trees at least 160 years old, and 107,982 acres of mature trees older than 80 years. Some trees that would
be protected are more than 700 years old. The proposal also would create 19 new Wild and Scenic Rivers in Olympic National Forest,
Washington Department of Natural Resources Lands, and within Olympic National Park. Wild and Scenic designation prohibits
federally licensed dams. It also creates a planning process to manage the land within a quarter-mile
corridor in contiguous stretches of federal and state lands along the river to protect a river’s wild,
scenic or recreational values. Private lands would not be affected unless owners are supportive. The legislation includes no
condemnation authority. The proposal steps back from the big plans of its earlier versions that sought to protect nearly 1 million acres, because
of objections raised by timber companies concerned about loss of timberlands, and tribes that feared loss of access for treaty-protected hunting.
Port renovation has bipart support
Seaport Magazine 12 – (“Ports and Politics”, 2011/2012 Issue of AAPA Seaport Magazine,
http://digital.sea-portsinfo.com/issue/54053)//MG
Bipartisan House caucus backs ports U.S. Rep. Janice Hahn, D-Calif., and U.S. Rep. Ted Poe, R-Texas, have announced
formation of the bipartisan House Ports Opportunity, Renewal, Trade and Security (PORTS) Caucus.
According to an Oct. 25 joint statement, the mission of the caucus will be “to promote the importance of our
ports to the nation’s economy and the need to secure them.” The congressmen noted that U.S. ports
support 13.3 million jobs and account for $3.15 trillion in business activity. Rep. Hahn, whose district includes the
Port of Los Angeles, said, “As a long-time advocate for the Port of Los Angeles, I understand how vital the ports are for our nation’s economy.
This bipartisan caucus will bring together members who represent diverse ports across the country, so
we will find ways together to promote our ports and keep them safe.” Rep. Poe, whose district includes the
Port of Port Arthur, commented, “Promoting and protecting our nation’s ports is critical to both national
security and economic security. Ports are the gateway in and out of the United States. They are our country’s link to
the rest of the world and the global economy. I look forward to working with Rep. Hahn to building an effective congressional
caucus that advocates on the behalf of ports nationwide.” The announcement from Hahn and Poe came the day before Oct. 26 testimony
before the Water Resources and Environment Subcommittee of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee by several port
industry leaders, including Jerry A. Bridges, executive director of the Virginia Port Authority and current AAPA chairman.
Ports will lobby for the plan
Marcari 11 (Assistant Editor at Seapower Magazine, Navy League of the United States, John, “Where
Does the Money Go?” June 2011, http://aapa.files.cmsplus.com/AAPAArticles/Where%20does%20the%20money%20go%20-%20Seapower%20%20June%202011.pdf)
USACE officials said they have heard several complaints from ports and maritime officials regarding how little trust fund money is spent
each year.
"The ports would like to see us fully maintain these navigation channels so that they can economically
move their commerce. Once they understand the current legislation is what drives our process,
they channel that energy into seeking legislative change through Congress," said Jim Walker, head of
the navigation branch at the Washington headquarters of the USACE.
National Corn Growers Association loves the plan – strong backing for the plan
Western Farms Press 12 (NCGA, Apr 5, 2012, Inland waterway improvements crucial to US
agriculture, http://m.westernfarmpress.com/management/inland-waterway-improvements-crucial-usagriculture)
With a wide variety of pressing issues facing the federal government over the coming months, funding for desperately needed
lock and dam improvements remains a high priority for the nation's corn farmers according to the
National Corn Growers Association. With the country's inland navigation system moving more than a
billion bushels of grain per year, about 60 percent of all grain exports, farmers understand the
importance of a functional waterways system. (For more, see: US inland waterway system a national embarrassment)
"Our inland waterway system plays a crucial role in the nation's economy, and we must act now to
help our leaders understand that funding improvements is critical to maintaining our industry's
viability," said NCGA President Garry Niemeyer. Achieving our goal is not only important for farmers
and shippers, our nation as a whole will benefit from the job creation and shipping efficiencies this
project would generate." The country's inland navigation system plays an even more visible role in the economy also, moving more
than a billion tons of domestic commerce valued at more than $300 billion per year. Yet, investment in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois
Waterways has not kept pace with the needs of the transportation sector. Designed to last only 50 years, much of the lock system is
approaching 80 years old and signs of deterioration are readily apparent. Not only has this crucial infrastructure far-exceeded its lifespan, it
cannot accommodate modern barging practices that use 1,100 foot barge-tows. Many of the locks are only 600 feet long, forcing barges to use
the time-consuming and dangerous double-locking procedure. Government
and industry officials agree that the
precarious state of the waterway system stems from a flawed method of maintaining and replacing
aging locks and dams. Despite authorizing a bill that would create $8 billion in projects that would
replace or rehabilitate aging river infrastructure, it did not fully fund these projects at that time. Instead,
the projects are funded in a piecemeal fashion, slapping Band-Aids on the gushing wound. This approach has led to significant cost overruns
and construction delays counted in decades, not months or years. Corn
growers have been long-time advocates for
improvements to the inland waterway system. Following the passage of the Water Resources Development Act of 2007,
which provides authorization for construction of seven locks on the Upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers as well as immediate implementation of
small-scale measures and the creation of a major ecosystem restoration program, NCGA has
remained focused on obtaining
construction dollars through the annual appropriations process.
National corn growers association key to the agenda- empirically can sway congress
and rally other lobbies
NCGA 12 (National Corn Growers Association, Crumbling Infrastructure a Longtime Challenge for
Growers, http://www.ncga.com/ff-infrastructure)
Failing infrastructure, an emerging issue for many Americans, is hardly news for the NCGA. Corn
growers have decades of experience working at the state and federal levels to improve the transportation
systems that underpin modern agriculture, from rural roads and bridges, to railroads, and especially inland
waterways. Greg Guenther, a former NCGA Corn Board member from Illinois, remembers the early chapters of the waterways issue: “Rod
Weinzierl [longtime executive director of Illinois Corn] called me one day. I’d been to just one meeting, and he said, ‘there’s this group called
the Midwest Area River Coalition working on river issues, and I want you to go to their meeting and see if this is something corn growers should
be involved in.’ “So I went and listened, and at the end, I called Rod and said, ‘These guys are serious. I think we ought to talk to them.’” The
Illinois Corn Growers Association became one of the first commodity groups to join the Midwest Area River Coalition (MARC 2000) campaign
for new, expanded locks on the Mississippi-Missouri system, and Illinois corn leaders advanced the issue to NCGA’s Corn Congress for
consideration. “Some of the other states didn’t see how improved locks would benefit them,” Guenther recounts. “We had a lot of meetings
and showed how every time you break apart a tow to go through a lock, it costs, and if we can reduce that cost, it’s going to help reduce
transportation costs. “Our theme was ‘a rising tide lifts all ships – if
you improve things on the river, it benefits everyone
in the corn industry.” Improving the Mississippi and Illinois locks and dams quickly became an NCGA priority,
and since then, Guenther has been to a lot of meetings, public and private, working on behalf of corn
growers, not only for river improvements but on issues of river management. Iowan Warren Kemper was also in
the front lines on river issues. “We used to go up to Washington, and NCGA members would visit in every
congressional office. Five or six states of growers would team up and cover 40 or 50 offices in a day,
two or three of us at a time. “Usually the reception was good, because the staffers knew they would have
to brief their bosses for the votes but they didn’t know anything about the river,” he recalls. “It seemed like
such an obvious thing,” says current NCGA President Garry Niemeyer, of Auburn, Ill., who also worked the locks issue. “We were trying
to get the message to Congress that the locks were built for 50 years and were already 70 years old
and crumbling.” For years, corn growers organized barge tours of the locks so farmers, officials, and
media could see the need first-hand. “We had huge crowds,” Guenther remembers. “We would have
speakers and do tours of the tow boat to familiarize people with the challenges of the river industry.
One year we even had a fax machine set up for people to fax a message to their congressmen right
then in support of the locks. When opponents challenged the calculations underpinning the need for
river improvements, it prompted a new strategy. “Everything we had done for four years just
crumbled into the river,” Niemeyer remembers. “We just had to sit down and say, ‘What we’re doing isn’t working. How do we get
where we need to be?’ “And we decided we needed to find someone else to build an alliance with.” That
decision led to coalition-building “outside of everybody’s comfort level,” he says. “We decided to look into a labor union
that would build the new locks, and the group that seemed most open to working with us was the carpenters union. We decided to
take a chance to do this.” It turned out to be a historic decision. Niemeyer remembers walking into congressional offices with
union representatives in the first joint lobbying effort in Washington: “Staff would look at us and say,
‘are you guys here together?’ And we said, ‘Yes, we are. We’ve formed a coalition and we want to
build some locks.’” The next step was harder: bringing environmental allies on board to support river improvements. “They have a
completely different agenda than we do,” says Guenther. “Some were adamantly opposed to any upgrades.” At one contentious Corps meeting
where other pro-improvement spokesmen played “good cop, bad cop” roles, Guenther’s assignment was to be the “voice of doom.” His
message: “There’s
plenty of river and we can do all this [locks plus environmental programs] if we just
pull together, but we’re going to do what it takes, and if there’s blood on the floor when we’re done,
so be it – we’re going to get our locks.” Finally in 2007, the Audubon Society and the Nature Conservancy joined in supporting
an NCGA plan that included extensive environmental restoration, and lock improvements were authorized as part of the Water Resources
Defense Act (WRDA). Kemper was there the day WRDA passed the House and Senate: “There was a bunch of amendments to try and kill it. I
was outside at the elevator where the senators go up and down to thank all the ones who helped us. “When WRDA finally went through the
Senate, I was in the back row of the gallery and I just pumped my fist up in the air and said, ‘Yes!’” NCGA
won a second
overwhelming victory in Congress after President Bush vetoed WRDA. “We had 406 congressmen and
83 senators in support,” recounts Niemeyer. “You just don’t get support like that anymore on legislation.”
Plan has bipartisan support
Boustany 12 – Congressional Record of the 112th Congress, second session from the
House of Representatives Volume 158 Number 56 (Charles, “Congressional Record;
Proceedings and debates of the 112th Congress, Second Session”, Congressional Record,
4/18/12, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CREC-2012-04-18/pdf/CREC-2012-04-18-house.pdf)//MM
Our country depends on its maritime commerce. Without the use of our maritime
transportation routes, we’re not really talking
cannot expand exports and we cannot move our agricultural commodities or our
manufactured goods to other destinations around the world if we do not have waterways that have been
maintained. The Army Corps of Engineers has said to me on multiple occasions, if you take the top 60 ports and harbors in
this country, fewer than 35 percent of those waterways are dredged adequately to the authorized depth
and width authorized by Congress. My bill, which is now an amendment to this transportation bill, H.R. 104, is the RAMP
Act. It is the Realize America’s Maritime Promise Act. It has bipartisan support with 190 Members in the House and
with over 30 Senators over on the Senate side.
about transportation. We
Infrastructure spending has massive political support – democrats push bipart compromise, business
community, labor unions, and the chamber of commerce
FT 11 (global news agency for business news and analysis, Anna Fifield, “US: Obstacles to progress,” The
Financial Times, August 1, 2011, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/01ff75ec-bc6c-11e0-acb600144feabdc0.html#axzz1yTIfa77A)
The Senate’s environment and public works committee responded with a two-year, $109bn bill that would keep spending at current levels plus
inflation rather than cutting it. Though some Democrats are unhappy at maintaining the status quo rather than boosting
spending, this proposal is more likely than Mr Mica’s to win bipartisan support. House Republicans “would vote down a Mother’s day resolution
if it had extra spending”, he said, referring to the Tea Party caucus that generally objects to any increased spending. Infrastructure
should be a promising area for bipartisan compromise, says Ryan McConaghy of the Third Way, a left-leaning think-tank.
“For the left it’s a job creator with immediate effects, like FDR’s New Deal or Eisenhower’s highway system. And the
business community supports it because it makes investment decisions more attractive.” Both the
labour unions and the Chamber of Commerce, seldom on the same side of an issue, support greater
infrastructure spending. The chamber has criticised Mr Mica’s $230bn bill for being too small.
2AC Transportation Bill Passed
Transportation Bill
Transportation bill worth $100 billion just passed
Everett and Snider 12
Burgess Everett and Adam Snider, Politico, June 29, 2012, “Transportation bill gets congressional
approval”, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/78032.html
Congress passed a transportation bill Friday worth over $100 billion, sending the bill to the president’s desk after
months of brinksmanship. The massive majorities by which the package passed — 373-52 in the House and 74-19 in the Senate – do not
capture the weeks of wrangling ahead of the votes. The bill was in doubt until the last minute, with current transportation policy set to expire.
The bill also capped federal student loan interest rates, which were expected to jump on Sunday. And it extended federal flood insurance
programs. But the House was able to rush the legislation through after a Thursday night Rules Committee meeting. Meanwhile, supporters in
the Senate fended off dissenters who argued the bill violated Senate rules. There was a trio of procedural votes to get to final passage as
outside groups like Heritage Action for America decried the rushed process. “Any of the amendments were to kill the bill. And I couldn’t let that
happen,” Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) told POLITICO of overcoming objections from Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who wanted the upper chamber to
have more time to read the bill. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) had tried to push through the measure by unanimous consent
Thursday to allow lawmakers to go home early for the recess week, but leadership decided to kick the vote until Friday to allow for a consent
agreement and give the upper chamber time to review a score from the Congressional Budget Office. Lawmakers
from both parties
and chambers say the bill is imperfect, but most agree it represents an improvement over current
policy. House Republicans dropped insistence on including the Keystone XL pipeline and other environmental provisions as the Senate
Democrats moved toward the House position on environmental streamlining and dropped funds for conservation. Congress put some battles
on the shelf to work out what many believe is this session’s big jobs bill, upsetting some green groups but heartening the construction industry
and many state departments of transportation. “Nobody likes the bill. But we’ve got to have a bill,” one GOP lawmaker told POLITICO. And Rep.
Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.), who along with other House Democratic negotiators withheld signatures on the conference report over complaints of
being frozen out of the information pipeline, said he and others “reluctantly” voted for the bill. Before the vote, Transportation and
Infrastructure Chairman John Mica (R-Fla.) took to the House floor to applaud among other things a “streamlining process that is
unprecedented.” He said conferees have “joined together to get the people’s work done." The committee’s ranking member Rahall was more
subdued. “The bill is what it is,” he said with a shrug, adding that ultimately it means jobs. White House press secretary Jay Carney called the
legislation “a good bipartisan bill that will create jobs, strengthen our transportation system and grow our economy,” adding that President
Obama “looks forward to signing it.” Obama devoted his most-recent weekly radio address to rally Congress to pass the infrastructure bill and
student loan legislation. The new transportation bill comes just in time — the gas tax was set to expire Sunday without congressional action.
But getting here wasn’t easy. The
last long-term transportation bill expired more than 1,000 days ago,
necessitating nine separate extensions of the law that first took effect in 2005. The bill is the second big
breakthrough in the sector this year: In February, Obama signed a four-year FAA bill after more than four years of extensions and one highprofile two-week shutdown in 2011.
Transportation bill spending $100 billion just passed
AP 12
ALAN FRAM, Associated Press, and the Adirondack Daily Enterprise staff, The Adirondack Daily, “Student loan, transportation bill passed”, June
30, 2012, https://www.adirondackdailyenterprise.com/page/content.detail/id/531615/Student-loan--transportation-bil---.html
WASHINGTON - Congress emphatically
approved legislation Friday preserving jobs on transportation
projects from coast to coast and avoiding interest rate increases on new loans to millions of college students, giving lawmakers campaignseason bragging rights on what may be their biggest economic achievement before the November elections. The bill sent for
President Barack Obama's signature enables just over $100 billion to be spent on highway, mass
transit and other transportation programs over the next two years, projects that would have expired
Saturday without congressional action. It also ends a bare-knuckle political battle over student loans that raged since spring, a
proxy fight over which party was best helping voters muddle through the economic downturn.