Blue Book 2015
Gross Domestic Product 1997 to 2013
Matt Hughes
1
What am I going to cover?
• GNI – methods recap
• Nominal GDP changes:
methods recap
final impact 1997 to 2013
• Real GDP changes:
methods recap
final impact 1997 to 2013
• Economic downturn analysis
2
Current Price Changes - GNI
3
Gross National Income
Changes
Exhaustiveness: improved estimates for:
 concealed income/activity
 under-coverage of unincorporated small businesses
(2009 onwards as required)
•
Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households: builds on
2014 improvements:
 NPISH unchanged but impact on other sectors and GDP
reduced
 improvements to the weights given to the new data
4
Gross National Income
Changes
•
Cross Border Property Income:
 MFI FDI income measured on current operating
performance basis (COP) rather than all-inclusive (AI)
basis: removes holding gains and losses – especially
large impact in 2008/09 with the removal of large losses
 reinvested earnings of mutual funds
 second homes: UK abroad and foreign residents in the
UK
 no impact on GDP
 first two already in UK published figures
5
Gross National Income
Changes
•
•
Repairs & Maintenance on dwellings by households:

small double counting with minor repairs in household intermediate
consumption and GFCF removed – very small impact

DIY spending on major repairs
Vehicle Registration Tax:
 treated as tax of a product rather than a fee for a sale of a service
6
Changes to GNI on ESA 1995 basis
•
The Official correspondence - Questionnaire and Quality Report (QQR) will be
submitted to Eurostat on 22 September 2015
•
1997 to 2001 are now closed years for the UK for GNI purposes (UK has no ESA
95 reservations)
•
2002 to 2009 can only be amended for reservations (detail has been provided in
articles)
•
2010 to 2013 are open years for GNI revisions, which includes new methodology
and new source data as well as a requirement to continue the ESA 95
reservation changes into the open period
7
Changes to GNI on ESA 1995 basis cont’d
•
The total revision to GNI, 2002 to 2013 is therefore £2,352 million in the 2015
QQR.
20022009
Difference between
QQR 2014 and QQR
2015 for ESA95 GNI
-27317
20102013
29669
Total
2352
8
Current Price Changes – Non GNI
9
Other Current Prices Changes
In addition to some of the GNI changes, other CP changes include
•
•
•
Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Improvements:

Removed double counting of land transfer costs in investment of new and major repairs
to buildings

Replace modelled estimates for stamp duty with real data
Reclassifications: keeping NA in line with the latest reclassifications:

Transport for London moves from Public Non-Financial Corporation to Local
Government body – also made improvements to data coverage and data quality

Network Rail reclassified from Private non-financial corporation to Central Government
Local Government Pensions: Builds upon 2014 improvements:

Improves the estimates of local government Compensation of Employees
10
Other Current Prices Changes (Cont.)
•
Alcohol and tobacco in Household Expenditure: Improvements:

•
Narcotics in Household Expenditure: Correction:

•
Improved coherence with Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs data by removing
historic adjustments
Conversion of the UN Street Prices for narcotics into a sterling value before using to reinflate volume data – this is a further new GNI revision
Smuggling: Improvement:

Updated data on prices of smuggled alcohol and tobacco, 2008 onwards
11
Other Current Prices Changes (cont.)
•
Consumer Price Index including Housing (CPIH): Alignment:

•
In order to maintain alignment of household expenditure on actual and imputed rentals
with the revised CPIH series for imputed rentals, CP estimates for imputed rentals in
2010 have been revised
Insurance industry measurement: Correction:

Correction of an error in the processing of input data from regulatory insurance data
returns, impacts from 2009 onwards
12
Changes to CP GDP, Annual Levels, ESA 2010 basis:
final impact 1997 to 2013
•
•
•
Between 1997 and 2013, CP GDP level revised by a range per year of -£2.8bn to
+£21.8bn
In aggregate, these changes raised the level of CP GDP by £4.2bn per year on average,
or 0.3%
Average increase to GDP estimate of £2.6bn between 1997 and 2011 – slightly larger in
recent periods £9.8bn (2012), £21.8bn (2013)
2000000
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2014 Current Price Estimates
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Final Blue Book 2015 Current Price Estimates
2012
2013
13
Contributions to changes to CP GDP annual levels, ESA
2010 basis: final impact 1997 to 2013
•
Between 1997 and 2013, CP GDP level revised by a range per year of -£2.8bn to
+£21.8bn
£ Bn
25.0
Contributions to final CP GDP level change at BB15
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
GNI
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Transport for London Reclassification
Network Rail Reclassification
Local Government Pensions
Alcohol and Tobacco
Smuggling
CPIH Alignment
Insurance Industry
14
Changes to CP GDP Annual Growth, ESA 2010 basis:
final impact 1997 to 2013
•
Between 1998 and 2013, CP GDP annual growth revised by a range per year of -0.4pp to
+0.7pp
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Revision
2014 Current Price Estimates
Final Blue Book 2015 Current Price Estimates
15
GDP Current Price History
Current Price annual
growth by vintage
BB01 BB02 BB03 BB04 BB05 BB06 BB07 BB08 BB09 BB10 BB11 BB12 BB13 BB14 BB15
1998 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.6% 5.5% 5.1% 5.0%
1999 4.8% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.3% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.3% 5.2% 4.3% 4.3%
2000 4.7% 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.1% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 4.9% 5.2% 6.3% 6.2%
2001
4.0% 4.5% 4.6% 4.5% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 3.8% 3.8%
2002
5.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 4.8% 4.8% 5.2% 5.1%
2003
5.3% 5.5% 5.9% 5.9% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.4% 6.2% 6.6% 6.2%
2004
5.3% 6.0% 5.9% 5.3% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.4% 5.5%
2005
4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.3% 5.2% 5.3% 5.7% 6.0%
2006
5.3% 5.5% 5.7% 5.9% 5.9% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 5.7%
2007
6.0% 5.5% 5.8% 5.8% 5.9% 5.8% 5.5% 5.5%
2008
3.4% 2.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4%
2009
-3.7% -2.8% -2.7% -3.1% -2.4% -2.2%
2010
4.6% 4.6% 4.8% 5.1% 4.7%
2011
3.4% 3.5% 3.8% 4.1%
2012
1.6% 2.3% 2.8%
2013
3.5% 4.2%
REV
-0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.4%
0.1%
0.3%
-0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.2%
-0.4%
0.3%
0.5%
0.7%
Real GDP changes
17
Real GDP Changes
• Changes introduced in Blue Book 2015 have a relatively
modest impact on the growth of CVM GDP over the
1998 to 2013 period, largely coinciding with the changes
to growth in GDP in current prices
• Average growth of real GDP remains unchanged at
2.0% per annum over 1998 to 2013
• Revisions to later years are larger – impact of both new
data and methods changes. Real GDP growth in 2011,
2012 and 2013 are all revised upwards
18
Changes to CVM GDP Annual Growth, ESA 2010 basis:
final impact 1997 to 2013
•
•
Between 1998 and 2013, CVM GDP annual growth revised by a range per year of -1.0pp
to +0.5pp
Notably lower growth in 2003 and 2010 and slightly stronger in 2011, 2012 and 2013
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
Revision
2014 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
Final Blue Book 2015 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
19
GDP CVM History
CVM annual growth by
vintage
BB01 BB02 BB03 BB04 BB05 BB06 BB07 BB08 BB09 BB10 BB11 BB12 BB13 BB14 BB15
1998 3.0% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.8% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4%
1999 2.1% 2.4% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.2% 2.9% 3.2% 3.1%
2000 2.9% 3.1% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 4.5% 4.2% 4.4% 3.8% 3.8%
2001
1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 3.2% 2.9% 2.2% 2.7% 2.8%
2002
1.7% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.7% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5%
2003
2.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 3.5% 3.8% 3.9% 4.3% 3.3%
2004
3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 2.5% 2.5%
2005
1.9% 1.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.8% 3.2% 2.8% 3.0%
2006
2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 2.7%
2007
3.0% 2.6% 2.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.4% 2.6% 2.6%
2008
0.7% -0.1% -1.1% -1.0% -0.8% -0.3% -0.5%
2009
-4.9% -4.4% -4.0% -5.2% -4.3% -4.2%
2010
1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1.5%
2011
0.8% 1.1% 1.6% 2.0%
2012
0.2% 0.7% 1.2%
2013
1.7% 2.2%
Rev
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
-1.0% (-0.4% CP)
0.0%
0.2%
-0.3%
0.0%
-0.2%
0.1%
-0.4% (-0.4% CP)
0.4% (0.3% CP)
0.5% (0.5% CP)
0.5% (0.7% CP)
Changes to CVM GDP Quarterly Growth, ESA 2010 basis:
final impact 1997 to 2013
Relatively small scale revisions. Average quarterly growth rate of UK economy is
unchanged at 0.5% per quarter between Q2 1997 and Q4 2013.
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
2013Q4
2013Q2
2012Q4
2012Q2
2011Q4
2011Q2
2010Q4
2010Q2
2009Q4
2009Q2
2008Q4
2008Q2
2007Q4
2007Q2
2006Q4
2006Q2
2005Q4
2005Q2
2004Q4
2004Q2
2003Q4
2003Q2
2002Q4
2002Q2
2001Q4
2001Q2
2000Q4
2000Q2
1999Q4
1999Q2
1998Q4
1998Q2
-0.5
1997Q4
0.0
1997Q2
•
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
Revision
2014 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
Final 2015 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
21
GDP changes
revisions to the expenditure components of real GDP
revisions to the income components of nominal GDP
22
Real GDP Changes – expenditure
component key findings
Component
Impact
Household Final
Consumption Expenditure
(HHFCE)
Relatively minor impact. Small changes driven by:
alcohol & tobacco consumption
Estimates of imputed rentals for homes owner overseas
Alignment of domestic owner occupied housing costs with CPIH in 2010
Gross Fixed Capital
Formation (GFCF)
Moderate revision impact throughout, driven by:
Revised deflator for software investment
New treatment of transfer costs associated with non-product assets and
changes to the treatment of expenditure on major dwelling repairs
Exports, Imports and Net
Trade
Slight impact by BB15 changes driven by:
Changes to treatment of non-monetary gold
Revised treatment of imputed rent on properties held overseas
Correction relating to the insurance industry
Contributions of the components of the expenditure
measure of GDP cont’d
Contributions of the components of the expenditure measure of GDP
to aggregate GDP revisions: BB15 compared with 2014 dataset,
chained volume measure
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
1998
1999
2000
2001
HHFCE
2002
2003
NPISH
2004
GGFCE
2005
GCF
2006
Exports
2007
Imports
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total revision
24
Nominal GDP Changes – income
component key findings
Component
Impact
Compensation of Employees
(CoE)
Relatively minor impact
Operating Surplus of Private
Non-Financial Corporations
(PNFCs)
Moderate revision impact throughout, driven by:
Other income – including
mixed income
Moderate revision impact throughout, driven by:
Exhaustiveness changes
Exhaustiveness changes
25
Economic downturn and recovery
26
Economic downturn – BB vintages
GDP growth during the economic downturn, quarter-on-quarter,
Q1 2008 = 100 multiple Blue Book vintages, chained volume measure
105
100
95
90
85
80
2008 Q1
2009 Q1
2010 Q1
2011 Q1
2012 Q1
2013 Q1
2011 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
2012 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
2013 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
2014 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
Final Blue Book 2015 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
27
GDP economic downturn
• 2008/09 downturn same length, and almost same depth
– was -6.0% and will be -6.1%
• Strength of the recovery has been revised, enabling UK
output to re-attain its pre-downturn peak in Q2 2013,
one quarter earlier than previously estimated
• However, the recovery remains weak by historical
standards
28
Annual National Accounts
Revisions to Sector Accounts 1997 – 2013
Phillip Davies
29
Overview
• Brief summary of the main methods and
changes
• Households & NPISH
• Net lending/borrowing by sector
30
Main Data & Methods Changes
• Gross National Income (GNI):
•
•
•
•
•
•
Estimation of consumption of fixed capital on roads, bridges, etc and road
renewals
Measurement of minor and major repairs and maintenance of dwellings by
owner occupiers
Cross border income
Recording of vehicle registration tax
New NPISH output & intermediate consumption estimates
Exhaustiveness
• ESA 2010:
•
•
•
•
•
Reclassification of Network Rail
Reclassification of Transport for London subsidiaries
Reclassification of 3G/4G spectrum sales
Treatment of payable tax credits
Treatment of payments made to multilateral development banks
31
Main Household Impacts
Change
Transaction Impact
Treatment of NPISH
Downward revision to expenditure increasing in later periods
Tax Credits
Switch between taxes paid and social benefits
Cross Border Property
Income
Small downward revisions to gross operating surplus
Upward revision to expenditure increasing in later periods
Upward revision to net property income increasing in late periods
Exhaustiveness
Small downward revisions to gross operating surplus
Large revisions to mixed income (both directions)
Small revisions to compensation of employees
Large upward revisions to expenditure
CPIH alignment
Upward revision to expenditure and gross operating surplus from
2010
Household & NPISH: Real Household
Disposable Income Growth Rates
33
Household Disposable Income
Household Disposable Income Growths
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-2.0
-4.0
GDI Revision
Deflator Revision
RHDI Revision
GDI Old
RHDI New
RHDI Old
GDI New
34
Household & NPISH: Nominal Disposable
Income Revisions £bn
30
HH & NPISH nominal GDI revisions
25
20
£ billion
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1997
B.2g GOS
1998
1999
B.3g MI
2000
2001
D1r CoE
2002
2003
2004
2005
D.4n Property income
2006
2007
2008
D.62r SBOTTIK
2009
2010
2011
2012
D.51 Taxes on income
35
2013
GDI
Household & NPISH: Nominal Disposable
Income Revisions £bn
30
HH & NPISH nominal GDI revisions
25
Tax credits
(resource)
20
15
£ billion
Tax credits
(use)
Cross border
property income
10
Exhaustiveness
5
Exhaustiveness
0
Cross border property income
Exhaustiveness
CPIH alignment
-5
-10
GDI
-15
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
36
Household Implied Deflator
37
Household & NPISH: Saving Ratio
30.0
14.0
25.0
12.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
8.0
5.0
0.0
6.0
-5.0
4.0
-10.0
-15.0
2.0
-20.0
-25.0
0.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
B.2g - GOS
Exhaustiveness
Cross border property income
CPIH alignment
B.3g - MI
Exhaustiveness
D.1r - CoE
Exhaustiveness
D.4n - net property income
Cross border
property income
D.51 - Taxes on income
Tax credits
(use)
P.31 - FCE
Exhaustiveness
Treatment of NPISH
Cross border property income
CPIH alignment
OLD SR (RHS)
NEW SR (RHS)
2011
2012
2013
D.62r SBOTTIK
Tax credits
(resource)
38
Per cent
£ billion
10.0
Household & NPISH: Net lending/borrowing
80.0
60.0
£ billion
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
B.2g - GOS
Exhaustiveness
Cross border property income
CPIH alignment
B.3g - mixed income
Exhaustiveness
D.1r - CoE
Exhaustiveness
D.4n - Net property income
Cross border
property income
D.51 - Taxes on income
Tax credits
(use)
P.31 - FCE
Exhaustiveness
Treatment of NPISH
Cross border property income
CPIH alignment
Old B.9n
New B.9n
2011
2012
D.62r - SBOTTIK
Tax credits
(resource)
39
2013
Main PNFC Impacts
Change
Transaction & Impact
Treatment of NPISH
Downward revision to gross operating surplus; larger in later
periods
Roads
Small downward revision to gross operating surplus
Network Rail
Small upward revisions to net property income
Larger downward revisions to capital transfer receivable
Larger downward revisions to gross capital formation
3G/4G
Small downward revisions to net property income
Large downward revision to acquisitions less disposables in 2000
Cross Border Property
Small upward revision to gross operating surplus
Small downward revision to net property income
PNFCs: Net lending/borrowing
PNFC net lending (+)/borrowing (-) revisions
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
Measurement of NPISH
2001
2002
2003
Network rail
2004
CBI
2005
2006
3g/4g
2007
2008
Other changes
2009
2010
Old B.9n
2011
2012
2013
New B.9n
41
Central Government:
Central government net lending (+)/borrowing (-) revisions
50.0
0.0
-50.0
-100.0
-150.0
-200.0
1997
1998 1999
Network rail
2000
2001 2002 2003
Multilateral banks
2004 2005
3G/4G
2006 2007 2008
Other changes
2009 2010
Old B.9n
2011 2012 2013
New B.9n
42
Public Corporations:
43
Local Government:
44
Financial Corporations:
45
Households & NPISH Loans :
1,600
Household & NPISH (AF.4) Liabilities Short-term (ST) and
Long-term (LT) Loans
1,400
1,200
£ billion
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
(AF.41N1) ST loans by UK MFIs
(AF.422) LT loans secured on dwellings
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(AF.41N9) ST loans by RoW MFIs
(AF.424N1) Other LT loans by UK residents
46
Households & NPISH Loans :
Household & NPISH Liabilities in Short-term (ST) and Longterm (LT) Loans
1,600
1,400
1,200
£ billion
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2010
(AF.41N1) ST loans by UK MFIs
(AF.422) LT loans secured on dwellings
2011
2012
2013
(AF.41N9) ST loans by RoW MFIs
(AF.424N1) Other LT loans by UK residents
47
Households & NPISH Revisions to Net Worth:
HN Financial Net Worth (BF.90) Revisions Impact
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
AF.8(L) Other accounts payable
AF.7(L) Financial derivatives and employee stock options
AF.6(L) Insurance, pension & standardised guarantee schemes
AF.4(L) Loans
AF.3(L) Debt securities
AF.8(A) Other accounts receivable
AF.7(A) Financial derivatives and employee stock options
AF.6(A) Insurance, pension & standardised guarantee schemes
AF.5(A) Equity & investment fund shares/units
AF.4(A) Loans
AF.3(A) Debt securities
AF.2(A) Currency & deposits
Old BF.90 (RHS)
New BF.90 (RHS)
48
Household: Cash Saving Ratio
Household cash only saving ratio
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-2.0
-4.0
2015Q1 Published Saving Ratio
BB15 Cash only Saving Ratio (gross interest)
BB15 Cash only Saving Ratio (net interest)
49
Impact on BoP and IIP
(1997 to 2013)
Craig Taylor
Overview
• Background
• Assessment of key changes
• Presentation of impacts
Current Account
Financial Account
International Investment Position
• Next steps
Background
• BoP impact article covering the period 1997 to
2013 published on 11 September 2015
• UK BoP entirely consistent and integrated within
UK National Accounts
• one of a few key countries where this is the case
• GNI reservations impact RoW sector and therefore
Balance of Payments
• some other open period revisions
Assessment of Key Changes
Assessment of key changes
Change
Impact
Withdrawal of income
from quasi-corporations
(cross border property
income)
Primary Income account, Financial Account and IIP
(direct investment)- new approach to the measurement of the
stock of assets and the associated flows and earnings from rental
and imputed rental arising from ownership of second homes by
non-residents.
Trade balance- the imports and exports of housing services
arising from imputed rental of second-homes by non-residents will
be recorded for the first time.
Non-monetary gold
Trade balance- new source data fully exploited. Series
smoothed enabling the underlying trend in the gold market to be
reflected in the trade balance but minimising the volatility on the
overall trade balance
Insurance services
correction
Trade balance - correction of an error within export of
insurance services (impacts 2009 onwards)
Assessment of key changes
Change
Exhaustiveness
Impact
Trade balance - To account for under-coverage of the incomes
accruing to small businesses and income concealed by
businesses and households through the evasion of taxes. Has
an indirect effect on trade in services.
Foreign Direct
Investment benchmark
Primary Income account, Financial Account and IIP
(direct investment) –quarterly survey results being aligned
with annual 2012 and 2013 survey results
Improvement to UK
holdings of bonds
issued by other sectors
Primary Income account (portfolio investment) - as
part of the ONS’ continuous improvement programme,
improvements to the coverage of UK holdings of bonds issued by
other UK sectors has led to revisions to the amount of receipts
allocated to the rest of the world as a residual.
Assessment of key changes
Change
Reclassifications
Impact
Secondary Income and Capital accounts - changes to
the treatment of research grants to and from overseas residents
Financial account and IIP – Network Rail
Capital Account and Financial Account – multi-lateral
development banks
Other changes:
•Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households
•Smuggling
Presentation of impacts
Trade balance – 1997 to 2013
£ billion
10
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Other
Insurance revision
-10
HMRC related
-20
Cross border
Previously
published
-30
Latest
Total revision
-40
-50
Primary income balance – 1997 to 2013
£ billion
40.0
Other
30.0
Update to bond
estimates
FDI benchmark
20.0
Cross border
10.0
Previously published
0.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Latest
-10.0
Revision total
-20.0
Current account balance – 1997 to 2013
£ billion
20
10
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-10
Other
Update to bonds
-20
FDI benchmark
Insurance revision
HMRC related
-30
Cross border
Previously pub
-40
Latest
Total revision
-50
-60
-70
-80
Financial account balance – 1997 to 2013
£ billion
20.0
10.0
Other
0.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-10.0
-20.0
FDI benchmark
Cross border
-30.0
Previous published
-40.0
Latest
-50.0
-60.0
-70.0
-80.0
Total revision
Net IIP – 1997 to 2013
£ billion
300.0
200.0
Other
100.0
FDI
benchmarking
0.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Cross border
-100.0
Previously
published
-200.0
Latest
-300.0
Total revision
-400.0
-500.0
Next steps
• BoP quarterly release published on 30
September 2015 alongside QNA
• BoP user group to be held on 22 October
2015
• Pink Book 2015 published 30 October 2015