The OECD/NBS project
“Improving the
Monthly/Quarterly
Statistics of China”
Marco Marini (Istat)
Francesco Zollino (Bank of Italy)
OECD/NBS Workshop on National Accounts
Haikou, China
November 30, 2009
Outline of the presentation
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Motivation of the project
Activities done
Main results
Open issues for future work
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Motivation
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Providing training and consultancy to the NBS in the
challenging project of improving the quality of
short-term indicators and quarterly GDP of China
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Setting up the general framework in line with the
international best practices
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Addressing the links between source data and the
quality of monthly/quarterly data
1/2
3
Motivation
2/2
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Reviewing guidelines and procedures for seasonal and
calendar adjustment
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Featuring data requirements and methods for the
purpose of a sound analysis of short term economic
developments of China
4
Activities done
Summary
 Contributions mainly focused on methods and
procedures:
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Training
Consultancy
Three workshops organized in 2009 at the NBS:
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Compilation of QNA estimates and seasonal adjustment
(June 15-18)
Short-term indicators, QNA and business cycle analysis
(June 22-25)
Assessment of procedures and preliminary results
(November 23-26)
5
Activities done
Compilation of QNA
 Main features of an indirect approach to the compilation
of quarterly accounts: the case of Italy
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Source data in QNA
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GDP production components
GDP expenditure components
Estimation methods used
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Temporal disaggregation
Univariate and multivariate benchmarking
Seasonal and calendar adjustment
6
Activities done
Short-term indicators and QNA
 Quality requirements for source data in order to improve
accuracy and reliability of GDP estimates
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Specific issues for transition economies (discrete vs.
accumulated data, public vs. private sector)
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Review of main issues related to short-term indicators
currently available in China
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Assessment of advantages and pitfalls of basic sources:
sample survey vs. administrative systems
7
Activities done
Seasonal adjustment
 Guidelines on Seasonal Adjustment in the European
Statistical System
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Presentation of tools for Seasonal Adjustment: TRAMOSEATS (Bank of Spain), X-12ARIMA (US Census),
Demetra (Eurostat)
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Regression-based method for the adjustment of calendar
effects
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Revisions Policy of SA QNA estimates in Italy
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SA Tutorial on selected Chinese time series
8
Activities done
Short-term analysis and forecasting
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Tools and purposes of business cycle analysis
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Experience in the analysis and the forecasting of main
macro-economic variables
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Forecasting key short-term indicators: the case of
industrial production in Italy
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Forecasting GDP through short-term indicators
9
Main results
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Full understanding of the indirect approach for the
compilation of QNA
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Acquiring expertise in the practice of seasonal
adjustment
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Pre-treatment of calendar effects (especially Chinese
moving holidays)
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First experiments of seasonal adjustment applied to
problematic Chinese time series
1/2
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Main results
2/2
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Useful discussion on problematic aspects of seasonal
adjustment: direct vs. indirect approach, nominal vs.
volume SA data
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Knowledge of general framework and main tools for the
short-term analysis of the economy
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Guidelines for selecting models and indicators for
short-term forecasts of main aggegates (possible use for
validating preliminary QNA estimates)
11
Open issues for future work
Concerning the methods…
1/3
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Careful review of pitfalls and advantages of the
benchmarking method chosen by the NBS (enhanced
Denton PFD in a shortcut version)
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Validation of seasonal adjustment results according to
well-established diagnostic tools (statistical tests,
revision and stability analysis)
12
Open issues for future work
Concerning the data…
2/3
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Keeping investing on better quality of raw data, also as a
key requirement for a sound seasonal adjustment (room
for more extensive use of sample survey?)
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Clear commitment on the dissemination strategy of QNA
data, with particular concern to the release calendar and
procedures
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Establishing a coherent, transparent, officially published
revisions policy of both SA and unadjusted data
13
Open issues for future work
Concerning the organization…
3/3
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Establishing a group of experts in SA techniques in
order to coordinate the activity in the NBS as a whole in
the very early stage of production and dissemination of
data
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Enhancing training activities to make expertise more
widespread across different departments of the NBS, in
view of a progressively de-centralization of the SA
responsability
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Starting a network with preferred users (such as PBC,
University and main analysts) to collect feedback about
the quality of data and future statistical needs
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Thank you!
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