Counter-terrorism Strategic Model

advertisement
Integrating Homeland Security into
Emergency Management Courses:
Some Grounding Concepts
and
Some Suggested Materials and
Approaches
Paula D. Gordon, Ph.D.
An Expanded Version of a Presentation Given
at the FEMA Higher Education Conference,
Emmitsburg, Maryland, June 5, 2008
An All-Hazards Approach
• A case for an all-hazards approach that
encompasses a full range of possible hazards and
catastrophic events that face us post 9/11 and
post Katrina.
• The shift in Federal policy evident in the National
Strategy for Homeland Security released October
5, 2007.
Excerpts from the
National Strategy for Homeland Security
released October 5, 2007
The following excerpt underscores dimensions of the
challenges before us:
"While protecting the lives and livelihoods of the
American people demands that we work to prevent and
disrupt terrorist attacks in the Homeland, it also requires
that we undertake measures to deter the threat of
terrorism, mitigate the Nation's vulnerabilities, and
minimize the consequences of an attack or disaster
should it occur. Our efforts include, among other things,
protecting our population from infectious diseases and
catastrophic public health threats, as well as reducing
the effects and consequences of all hazards through
improved systems to notify, alert, and warn the public."
Excerpts from the
National Strategy for Homeland Security
released October 5, 2007 (Continued)
In the National Strategy, the need to carry out
and "advance readiness activities" is also
emphasized in the following way:
"There are times when we are able to anticipate
impending or emergent events that will require a
national response, such as an upcoming
hurricane season, a potential pandemic, or a
period of heightened terrorist threat."
Some Perspectives Concerning
Emergency Management
And the Role of Homeland Security Concerns
in Emergency Management
• Is the focus of emergency management solely on natural hazards?
• Does the focus on emergency management include an all-hazards
approach that encompasses terrorism and homeland security
threats and challenges?
• Does the focus on emergency management encompass both an
all-hazards approach and attention to catastrophic events?
• Does the focus on emergency management encompasses a goal
of helping individuals develop the knowledge base, skill sets, and
capabilities needed to assume and more effectively carry out
their roles of responsibility relating to an all-hazards approach to
emergency management?
Some Organizing Typologies, Concepts, and Tools
•
Todd Stewart’s Counter-Terrorism Strategic Model:
Similarities between this depiction
of the homeland security cycle
and the emergency management cycle
•
A Typology of Emergencies of Differing Levels of Severity
•
The Homeland Security Impact Scale and its
Applicability to an All-Hazards Approach to
Emergency Management
•
The Public Safety/National Security Grid
Todd Stewart’s
Counter-Terrorism Strategic Model:
• Todd Stewart's model is helpful in depicting a
comprehensive approach to preventing as well as
preparing for and responding to potential
terrorist-related events.
• A model that helps clarify key similarities and
differences between the homeland security cycle
and the emergency management cycle
• A model that importantly includes mitigation.
Todd Stewart’s
Counter-Terrorism Strategic Model
Identify & Characterize
Threats
Recovery &
Reconstitution
Post-Event
Response
Deterrence
TERRORISM
EVENT OR
CAMPAIGN
Forensics &
Attribution
Prediction
Prevention
Crisis
Management
(Pre-emption)
Mitigation
Detect &
Characterize
(Preparation
and Protection)
A Typology of Emergencies
of Differing Levels of Severity
•
A typology that is pertinent to an all-hazards
approach to emergency management as well as
to a natural hazards approach to emergency
management
• A typology that helps clarify the differences in
impacts of emergencies of differing levels of
severity and the implications of those differences
for the emergency management cycle
A Typology of Emergencies
Size of
Emergency
Number
of Dead &
Injured
Roles of
Approach
Government
Characteristics
of Care
Skill &
Training
Needs
Small Scale
Scores
Local, State,
and Regional
Surge of
capabilities
Manageable
Surge capability
Medium
Scale
Hundreds
All levels of
government
Modified
Normal to
minimal
Networked
surge
capability
Large
Scale
Thousands
All levels of
government
Modified
to
makeshift
Normal to
minimal
Networked
surge
capability
Catastrophic
Scale
Millions
All levels of
government
Mostly
makeshift
Minimal or
worse
Make do
capability
MegaCatastrophe
Multimillions to
billions
Remaining
vestiges of
government
Totally
makeshift
Minimal if
existent
Improvisational
skills
Adapted from P. Gordon " Comparative Scenario and Options Analysis: Important Tools for Agents of Change Post 9/11 and Post
Hurricane Katrina," Homeland Security Review, Vol. 1 No. 2 , 2006 (http://users.rcn.com/pgordon/homeland/options/Analysis.html )
The Homeland Security Impact Scale: Its
Applicability to an All-Hazards Approach to
Emergency Management
• The Homeland Security Impact Scale provides a
common frame of reference that can be useful in
considering and arriving at a consensus
concerning the impacts of disasters.
• The Homeland Security Impact Scale provides a
common frame of reference that can be useful in
considering actions that can be taken to mitigate
the impacts of disasters or emergencies of
differing levels of severity or to address and help
reverse them once they have occurred.
Homeland Security Impact Scale
• 0 -- No real impact on national security, economic security, or
personal security
• 1 -- Local impact in areas directly affected
• 2 -- Significant impact in some areas that were not directly
affected
• 3 -- Significant market adjustment (20% plus drop); some
business and industries destabilized; some bankruptcies, including
increasing number of personal bankruptcies and bankruptcies of
small businesses, and waning of consumer confidence
• 4 -- Economic slowdown spreads; rise in unemployment and
underemployment accompanied by possible isolated disruptive
incidents and acts, increase in hunger and homelessness
• 5 -- Cascading impacts including mild recession; isolated supply
problems; isolated infrastructure problems; accompanied by
possible increase in disruptive incidents and acts, continuing
societal impacts
Homeland Security Impact Scale
(Continued)
• 6 -- Moderate to strong recession or increased market volatility;
regional supply problems; regional infrastructure problems
accompanied by possible increase in disruptive incidents and acts;
worsening societal impacts
• 7 -- Spreading supply problems and infrastructure problems
accompanied by possible increase in disruptive incidents and acts,
worsening societal impacts, and major challenges posed to elected
and non-elected public officials
• 8 -- Depression; increased supply problems; elements of
infrastructure crippled accompanied by likely increase in disruptive
incidents and acts; worsening societal impacts; and national and
global markets severely impacted
• 9 -- Widespread supply problems; infrastructure verging on
collapse with both national and global consequences; worsening
economic and societal impacts accompanied by likely widespread
disruptions
• 10 -- Possible unraveling of the social fabric, nationally and
globally, jeopardizing the ability of governments to govern and
keep the peace
Homeland Security Impact Scale
(Continued)
• "Disruptions" and "incidents" can include demonstrations, work
stoppages, strikes, organized or spontaneous vandalism, looting,
and riots. Also included are sabotage and terrorist acts and
attacks. (The scale and these notations have been adapted by
Paula D.Gordon from the Y2K Impact Scale developed by Bruce F.
Webster of WDCY2K and sent by him to the membership of
WDCY2K on March 4, 1998.)
• "Supply problems" and "infrastructure problems" may include food
shortages; availability of potable water; degradation of water
purity, water distribution and/or waste management; fuel/heating
oil shortages, disruptions in utilities (power, gas,
telecommunications), disruption in the financial sector, disruptions
in transportation (airlines, trains, trucking, ports, ships);
pharmaceutical shortages; disruption of health care services or
emergency medical services; disruption of fire and public safety
services; disruptions or inadequacies, or overwhelming of public
works operations and services.
The Public Safety/Homeland Security Grid
• A way of seeing public safety and homeland
security as being mutually inclusive
• A balanced and integrated emphasis on
both public safety and homeland security,
not one over the other.
The Public Safety/
Homeland Security Grid
9,1
9,9
Public Safety
1,1
5,5
Homeland Security
1,9
Some Selected Materials
The following are materials, websites, videos, and DVD’s
that can be used in the development of courses and
curricula focusing on an all-hazards approach to homeland
security and emergency management. Complete
references for these materials can be found in the
“Extensive List of References and Resources” compiled by
Paula D. Gordon and posted at
http://gordonhomeland.com * or see
http://users.rcn.com/pgordon/homeland/resources.html#
13
* GordonHomeland.com (http://gordonhomeland.com ) includes
articles, reports, publications, and presentations on homeland
security and emergency management and organizational,
managerial, ethical, and educational issues. The website has
been developed by Paula D. Gordon and is provided as a
free public service.
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• Paula D. Gordon, “Improving Homeland Security
& Critical Infrastructure Protection and Continuity
Efforts”
http://users.rcn.com/pgordon/homeland/hsciprep
ort.pdf or use link at
http://gordonhomeland.com
• Paula D. Gordon, “The Different Nature of
Terrorism and Terrorist Threats Post 9/11and the
Implications of These Differences” use link at
http://gordonhomeland.com or
http://users.rcn.com/pgordon/homeland/thediffer
entnatureofterrorism.htm
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• Walid Phares, February 27, 2007 Presentation on
Radical Extremism, C-SPAN video or DVD
• Walid Phares, “Education VS Jihad,” HS Today,
November 2006
• “Obsession: Radical Islam’s War Against the
West,” a documentary, 2006. Available on DVD
at http://obsessionthemovie.com .
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• David A. McEntire, Introduction to Homeland
Security: Understanding Terrorism with an
Emergency Management Perspective, Wiley,
2009.
• Claire B. Rubin, editor, Emergency
Management: The American Experience
1900 – 2005, Public Entity Risk Institute,
(http://riskinstitute.org ), 2007
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• Stephen Flynn, March 27, 2007 Presentation on The Edge
of Disaster, C-SPAN video or DVD. Also see CNN archives.
• Stephen Flynn, The Edge of Disaster, Random House,
2007
• Michael Leavitt, April 18, 2006 Presentation concerning
pandemic flu preparedness planning, C-SPAN video or DVD,
ID: 192090 (1-877-ONCSPAN)
• Naval Postgraduate School Course Materials and videos on
radical extremism and the resources of the Homeland
Security Digital Library
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• April 2003 Frontline Program: Cyberwar (PBS) (Also see
archived program, transcript, and interviews online at
http://www.pbs.org .) (To obtain a copy of this video, ID:
FROL-2116, contact PBS Video at 1-800-424-7963)
• Paula D. Gordon, "Infrastructure Threats and Challenges:
Before and After September 11, 2001". PA TIMES, Vol.
24, Issue 12, December 2001. Reprinted as a commentary
in the Journal of Homeland Security, April 16, 2002.
Also posted at
http://users.rcn.com/pgordon/homeland/homeland_infra.ht
ml or see link at http://gordonhomeland.com .
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• DHS Homeland Security Advisory Council Critical
Infrastructure Group The 1-10-2006 Report is
available at on the DHS Homeland Security
Advisory Council website. (To obtain a copy of the
C-SPAN video or DVD, ID: 190653, contact 1877-ONCSPAN.)
• Ted G. Lewis, Critical Infrastructure Protection in
Homeland Security ~ Defending a Networked
Nation, Wiley-Interscience, 2006
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• General Russel Honore, Presentation on Hurricane Katrina,
C-SPAN video or ID: 191243, February 13, 2006*
• General Russel Honore, September 9, 2005 CNN transcript
in which General Honore compares the crisis to a football
game in which you cannot expect to win any ground in the
first quarter*
• Michael Brown, Presentation on Hurricane Katrina and
Weather Emergency Preparedness, January 18, 2006, CSPAN video or DVD ID 190789.*
* For particularly significant insights into the massive challenges relating to
catastrophic event planning, preparedness, mitigation, and response and
the Federal approach to Hurricane Katrina
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• Michael Brown, February 11, 2006, Congressional
Deposition (http://katrina.hours.gov/brown/depo.doc )
(Also see Congressional Testimony)*
• Paula D. Gordon, "Thoughts about Katrina: Responses to
Two Questions about Hurricane Katrina and America's
Resilience,“ December 1, 2005 (Prepared for the December
19-21, 2005 Forum on Building America's Resilience to
Hazards, sponsored by The American Meteorological Society
in collaboration with The Space Enterprise Council of the
U.S. Chamber of Commerce.) (Posted at
http://gordonhomeland.com )
* For particularly significant insights into the massive challenges relating to
catastrophic event planning, preparedness, mitigation, and response and
the Federal approach to Hurricane Katrina
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• Susan B. Glasser and Michael Grunwald,
"Department's Mission Was Undermined From
Start", Washington Post, December 22, 2005 *
• Michael Grunwald and Susan B. Glasser, "Brown's
Turf Wars Sapped FEMA's Strength" Washington
Post, December 23, 2005 *
* For extraordinary insights into the background Federal
homeland security efforts from after 9/11 through
Hurricane Katrina
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• Paula D. Gordon, Presenter, "Improving
Homeland Security - Continuing Challenges and
Opportunities," transcript of Emergency
Information Infrastructure Partnership (EIIP)
Virtual Forum, March 24, 2004. Posted at
http://gordonhomeland.com.
• Paula D. Gordon, "Transforming and Leading
Organizations," (Examples from disaster
management.) (Posted at
http://gordonhomeland.com. Also published in
Government Transformation, Winter 2004-05
issue.
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• Paula D. Gordon, "Capabilities and Skills Needed
by Those in New Roles of Responsibility for
Homeland Security at the Federal, State, and
Local Levels of Government." Posted at
http://gordonhomeland.com and published in the
PA TIMES, Vol. 28, Issue 3, March 2005 (a
publication of the American Society for Public
Administration).
• Paula D. Gordon, "Comparative Scenario and
Options Analysis: Important Tools for Agents of
Change Post 9/11 and Post Hurricane Katrina,"
Homeland Security Review, Vol. 1 No. 2,
2006. Posted at http://gordonhomeland.com or
http://users.rcn.com/pgordon/homeland/options
Analysis.html.
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• Paula D. Gordon, "Public Administration in the
Public Interest: Thoughts About Public
Administration Post September 11, 2001".
Posted at
http://users.rcn.com/pgordon/homeland/public_a
dministration_in_the_pub.html or see link at
http://gordonhomeland.com
• Paula D. Gordon, "The 9/11 Commission as an
Incident Debriefing" May 18, 2004. Posted at
http://users.rcn.com/pgordon/homeland/911debr
iefing.pdf or see link at
http://gordonhomeland.com.
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• Paula D. Gordon, “The Homeland Security Impact
Scale: An Alternative Approach to
Assessing Homeland Security and Critical
Infrastructure Protection Efforts and a Frame of
Reference for Understanding and Addressing
Current Challenges”
http://users.rcn.com/pgordon/homeland/thehom
elandsecurityimpactscale.htm or use link at
http://gordonhomeland.com .
• Paula D. Gordon, “Strategic Planning and Y2K
Technology Challenges:Lessons and Legacies for
Homeland Security”
http://users.rcn.com/pgordon/homeland/homela
nd_strat.html or use link at
http://gordonhomeland.com .
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• Paula D. Gordon, “Using E-Technology to Advance
Homeland Security Efforts
http://users.rcn.com/pgordon/homeland/etechnol
ogy.html or use link at
http://gordonhomeland.com .
• Paula D. Gordon, “A Common Goal for
Contingency Planning and Management,
Emergency Management, and Homeland
Security: Building a Disaster Resilient Nation”
http://users.rcn.com/pgordon/homeland/Commo
nGoal.html or use link at
http://gordonhomeland.com .
Some Selected Materials
(Continued)
• Paula D. Gordon, "The State of Emergency
Management and Homeland Security," PA
TIMES, Vol. 30, Issue 8, August 2007. Also
posted at http://gordonhomeland.com or see or
http://users.rcn.com/pgordon/homeland/stateofE
M.html .
• Paula D. Gordon (compiler) "List of Selected
Homeland Security References and Resources”
(Extensive List) (http://gordonhomeland.com or
http://users.rcn.com/pgordon/homeland/resourc
es.html#13 ) This list includes seventeen
categories of information, including URLs for
websites and portals relevant to homeland
security and emergency management.
Contact Information & Websites
Paula D. Gordon, Ph.D.
Educator/Analyst/Writer/Consultant
E-Mail:
pgordon@erols.com
Websites: http://gordonhomeland.com
http://www.jhu.edu/pgordon
Download