ENSEMBLES – Progress Report
WP6.2 meeting, Helsinki
Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, April 2007
Project Office can be contacted on ensemblesfp6@metoffice.gov.uk
Web site is http://www.ensembles-eu.org
Strategic Objectives
1. Develop an ensemble prediction system
based on global and regional Earth System models,
validated against observations and analyses,
to produce a probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future
climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales
1. Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of
physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in
the Earth System
2. Exploit the results by linking the outputs to a range of
applications, including agriculture, health, food security,
energy, water resources, insurance
© Crown copyright 2007
Page 2
Research Themes (RTs) summary
System
development
and assembly
© Crown copyright 2007
Model ‘engine’:
hindcasts, climate
integrations
Understanding,
evaluation
Impacts,
Scenarios and
policy
Page 3
Progress: GCM seasonal to decadal
Three different seasonal to decadal forecast systems to
estimate model uncertainty:
 Multi-model system for s2d forecasts installed at ECMWF built from
EUROSIP operational activities and DEMETER experience
 Perturbed parameter system, built from the decadal prediction system
(DePreSys) at the Met Office
 Stochastic physics system, from the CASBS system developed for
medium-range forecasting at ECMWF
Design of a set of common experiments to determine the
benefits of each approach. All show promising aspects.
Improved ocean data assimilation systems for s2d prediction
© Crown copyright 2007
Page 4
Progress: GCM centennial
Multi-model ACC simulations (IPCC 4AR)
 Conducted historical runs (1860-2000)
 and scenario runs (IPCC A1B, A2, B1)
 including Hadley Centre perturbed
parameter runs, maybe other GCMs
© Crown copyright 2007
Page 5
Progress: regional modelling
 Defined RCM domain
 ERA40 hindcats (1961-2000) at 50km resolution: 11
completed, 7 already in the central archive
 ERA40 runs at 25km resolution underway
 Matrix of driving GCMs/RCMs devised
DRAFT – TO BE FINALISED
RCM’s
GCM’s
METOMPIMET CNRM
HC
DMI
METO- 1950HC
2100
MPIME 1950T
2100
ETH
KNMI
ICTP
19502050
19502100
19502050
19502050
SMHI
UCLM
19502050
19502050
19502050
C4I
GKSS
MetNo
19502050
19502050
FUB
IPSL
CNRM
NERSC
19502050
19502050
19502050
19502050
19502050
19502050
0.22º (25km) grid mesh (courtesy of Burkhardt Rockel)
© Crown copyright 2007
CHMI
Page 6
Progress (continued)
 Scientific analyses (e.g. cloud feedbacks, carbon, sea-ice, …)
 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios (including
provision of interim pdfs from PPE to RT6)
 Publicly available Climate Explorer http://climexp.knmi.nl/
further developed as integrated diagnostic tool
 Producing daily gridded datasets for Europe (on same grid as
RCMs), particularly for evaluating extremes
 New emissions scenario developed (A1B baseline, stabilise to
OLD (ECA daily dataset)
NEW
450ppmv CO2eq)
© Crown copyright 2007
Page 7
Progress (continued)
 Editable publications page available, hosted by UREADMM
 Publications of ENSEMBLES results starting to appear in journals.
ENSEMBLES Technical Reports series created
 Need to increase the publicity of the results of the project
 Participation at international meetings: EGU, AGU, EMS, ESSP, sideevents at COP/MOP, joint meetings with WHO and OECD
 West Africa to be the non-European RCM domain later in project
 We are developing links with other projects and programmes (e.g. AMMA,
ADAM, CECILIA, CIRCE, CLAVIER, DYNAMITE, Euro-Limpacs, GMES, MERSEA,
QUANTIFY, WMO/WCRP mainly CLIVAR and GEWEX)
 Our General Assembly is growing in popularity, internally and externally.
GA2007 in Prague, 12-16 November
 Expanding the “affiliated partners” (16 currently, more requested)
© Crown copyright 2007
Page 8
Affiliated partners
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
FAO, Rene Gommes, RT5&6
WHO, Bettine Menne, RT5
University of Zurich, Nadine Salzmann, RT6
ESSC, John Christy, RT5
Dept. Geography, Nat. Univ. of Ireland, Kieran Hickey, RT5
NCAR, Guy Brasseur, Jerry Meehl, Linda Mearns, RT2A&2B
FRGCG, Michio Kawamiya, RT1&2A
CCSR (University of Tokyo), Masahide Kimoto, RT4
Nat. Inst. Earth Sciences, Toru Nozawa/Seita Emori, RT2A
SINTEF Energy Research, Atle Harby, RT6
University of Copenhagen, Eigil Kaas, RT2A
University of Exeter, David Stephenson, RT4 (&5?)
Nat. Acad. Of Scientists of Ukraine, Alexander Palonski, RT6
University of Newcastle, Hayley Fowler
OURANOS Climate Analysis group, Daniel Caya/Diane Chaumont, RT2B
Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics Network (CRCMD), Colin Jones
© Crown copyright 2007
Page 9
Stream 2 simulations – GCMs
 s2d hindcasts 1960 onwards (previously 1991-2001)
 Hindcasts underway. Expected completion Aug08
 Models: IFS/HOPE (ECMWF), ARPEGE/OPA (CNRM and CERFACS),
HadGEM1a and DePreSys (METO-HC), ECHAM/OM1 (IfM-GEOMAR), INGV
 1860-2000 historical simulations and 21st Century scenarios
using updated models and E1 (previously A1B, A2, B1)
 Spin-up of control runs underway
 20thC historical simulations by Aug07, may be 3 months later
 21stC scenarios expected Aug08
 Models: DKCM (DMI), HadGEM2-AO and HadCM3C (METO-HC), MPIMET,
EGMAM (FUB), CNRM, CNRS-IPSL
© Crown copyright 2007
Page 10
Stream 2 simulations – RCMs
 ERA40 hindcasts (1961-2000) at 25km.
 Most in data archive, aiming for all by June 07
 1950-2050/2100 (A1B and different driving GCMs) at 25km
 Due Aug07, may be 4 months later
 Models: METO-HC, SMHI, MPIMET, ICTP, CNRM, ETH, DMI, UCLM, KNMI,
C4I, GKSS, CHMI/CUNI, Met.no
 RT3 RCM system developed, for use in RT2B by end April 07
 Weighting of members of RCM ensembles, due Aug07
 Recommendations and guidance on methods for construction
of probabilistic regional climate scenarios by Feb08
 Assessment of robustness of sds techniques using GCM and
RCM output by Feb08
© Crown copyright 2007
Page 11
Plans for 2007
 Develop data archives
 s2d @ ECMWF building on DEMETER database
 RCM @ DMI building on PRUDENCE database
 GCM @ MPIMET (http://ensembles.wdc-climate.de) building on IPCC WCDC
activities
 Daily gridded dataset for surface climate variables for Europe,
due Aug 07
 Develop impacts models (e.g. crops, water resources, energy)
 Develop statistical downscaling tools
 Improved estimates for changes in extreme events
 Workshops (Joint ENSEMBLES/CLIVAR workshop; 5th Study Conference on BALTEX)
© Crown copyright 2007
Page 12
Outreach plans
 Further develop links with CLIVAR:
 joint workshop with Task Force on Seasonal Prediction, June 2007
 discussions with WGCM
 Further develop links with other WCRP projects:
 joint workshop with CFMIP, April 2007
 GEWEX, e.g. joint involvement in BALTEX conference, June 2007
 Develop links with other EC projects (e.g. AMMA joint workshop, Feb07)
 ENSEMBLES General Assemblies are now attracting other groups
© Crown copyright 2007
Page 13
Concluding remarks – innovative work
 Brings together largely separate communities and integrates worldleading European research:
s2d, anthropogenic climate change, global modellers, regional modellers
(dynamical and statistical downscaling), scientific understanding, evaluation with
observations, application modellers to deliver climate impacts, emission scenario
developers, training programmes
 Multi-disciplinary approach allows exchange of knowledge, ideas and
techniques – for example extensive work on extremes
 Multi-model ensemble-based probability approach will quantify
uncertainty, increase understanding, influence the development of the
next generation of models, leading to uncertainty reduction in the future
 Examples of new products:







multi-model RCM system at 25km resolution
probabilistic methods for use for GCMs, RCMs, impact models
probabilistic predictions from s2d2c timescales to explore impacts
gridded observations for Europe with estimate of uncertainty
public availability of large datasets
developments to the publicly available Climate Explorer
on-line tools for users to downscale Ensembles simulations
© Crown copyright 2007
Page 14
Questions
© Crown copyright 2007
Page 15