National Senior Certificate Examinations Portfolio Committee on Basic Education 7 February 2012 Introduction Introduction • The release of the 2011 NSC examination results has attracted immense public interest. • The NSC examination results remains one of the most important indicators of performance of the schooling system. • These results have implications for: - the DBE and its targets for learner improvement. - diagnostic significance in curriculum implementation national benchmark for all schools Introduction • The national curriculum has established itself over the past four years: • Generally, teachers have adjusted to the national curriculum standards Remediation programmes have yielded steady improvements Improved allocation of resources to schools Ongoing provision of professional support to educators and administrators Overall, evidence of a maturing national system of education Tried and tested processes, policies and practices in the national examination and assessment system Teachers, subject advisors and the examining panels have come to grips with the national curriculum and its associated assessment Context Context: Delivery Agreement Outputs Outcome 1: Improved quality of basic education Output Sub-outputs Output 1: Improve the quality of teaching and learning 1.1 Improve teacher capacity and practices Output 2: Undertake regular assessment to track progress 2.1 Establish a world-class system of standardised national assessments 1.2 Increase access to high-quality learning materials 2.2 Extract key lessons from ongoing participation in international assessments Output 3: Improve early childhood development 3.1 Universalise access to Grade R 3.2 Improve the quality of early childhood development Output 4: Ensure a credible outcomes-focused planning and accountability system 4.1 Strengthen school management and promote functional schools 4.2 Strengthen the capacity of district offices 6 Initiatives to improve Quality of Schooling • Action Plan to 2014: Towards the realisation of Schooling 2025. • Review of the Curriculum. • The workbook project. • Continuing teacher development. • Accelerated Schools Infrastructure Development Initiative (ASIDI) • Annual National Assessment. • Foundations for learning programme. • The National School Nutrition Programme 7 Initiatives to Improve Quality of Schooling • Strong focus on improving literacy and numeracy across all grades. • Dinaledi Schools. • No Fee Schools. • Funza Lushaka Bursary Programme • 8 Grade 12 Intervention Strategies • Intensive post-test analysis of question papers • Development of a Diagnostic Subject Report • Development of self study guides in selected subjects in 2010. • Development of additional self study guides in Economics, Business Studies and Life Sciences. • Development of Practical Assessment Tasks (16 subjects in NCS) • Revision camps for learners. • Winter classes. • Radio lessons • Common tests, examinations 9 600,000 80.0 550,000 70.0 500,000 60.0 450,000 400,000 50.0 350,000 40.0 300,000 30.0 250,000 20.0 200,000 10.0 150,000 100,000 Percentage Number of candidates Number of candidates and the pass rates in NSC: 1994 to 2010 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.0 Candidates (no.) 495,408 531,453 518,032 555,267 553,151 511,159 489,941 449,371 443,821 440,267 467,985 508,363 528,525 564,775 533,561 552,073 537,543 % passed 58.0 53.4 53.8 47.1 50.6 48.9 57.8 61.7 68.9 73.2 70.7 68.3 66.5 65.2 62.6 60.6 67.8 10 Grade 12 completion of 19 to 24 year olds earlier and at higher levels over recent years (StatsSA household surveys) 11 Setting of standards in FET band • With the introduction of the NSC in 2008, standards were set at the grade 10, 11 and 12 levels, which was not the case with the old Senior Certificate. • Common testing programme implemented at grades 10, 11 and 12, together with exemplar questions. • One of the reasons for the decrease in the numbers of learners qualifying for admission to Grade12. Enrolment in Grade 11 & Grade 12 1999 to 2011 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Grade 11 714,677 495,236 709,100 673,675 738,026 821,685 839,009 890,902 920,136 902,763 881,728 841,858 847,738 Grade 12 554,198 366,112 490,657 485,378 476,593 501,304 538,909 568,930 625,838 595,219 602,321 579,449 534,498 13 Standardisation of Results Standardisation of Results Year Subjects Raw marks Adjusted Adjusted downwards upwards 2010 58 39 10 9 2011 56 45 8 3 Senior Certificate and the National Senior Certificate Promotion Requirements: SC • - Pass two approved languages. At least one at first language SG level - Pass at least three other subjects - Aggregate of 720 marks - Pass : HG (40%): SG (33 %); Converted Pass (LG): 25% Senior Certificate and the National Senior Certificate Promotion Requirements: NSC NSC - Achieved Home Lang: 40% - Two (2) subjects at 40% and three (3) at 30% Higher Certificate - NSC - LOLT at 30% Diploma -- NSC - LOLT at 30% - Four (4) subjects at 40% Bachelors - NSC - LOLT at 30% - Four (4 ) subjects at 50% (designated list) Senior Certificate and the National Senior Certificate Comparison • NSC requires a seven subject offering, SC six. • NSC: Mathematics or Maths Literacy and Life Orientation compulsory. • Candidate could pass the SC with a converted pass of 25%, provided an aggregate of 720 was obtained. • Aggregate made redundant in the NSC with the specific requirement of 3 at 30% and 3 at 40% • Admission to bachelors in the SC: pass 4 subjects at 40% and 2 subjects at 33.3%. • Admission to bachelors in the NSC: 4 subjects at 50% and remaining subjects at 30%, (home language must be at 40%). • All subjects offered for the NSC are at one level which is equivalent to the Higher Grade. The Magnitude and Size of the NSC Examination Candidates Enrolled/Wrote (full time) - 2011 Candidates enrolled and wrote Province Number enrolled Difference Number wrote enrolled-wrote Eastern Cape 68 069 65 359 2 710 Free State 26 394 25 932 462 Gauteng 87 630 85 367 2 263 127 056 122 126 4 930 Limpopo 74 673 73 731 942 Mpumalanga 49 600 48 135 1 465 North West 25 930 25 364 566 Northern Cape 10 425 10 116 309 Western Cape 41 261 39 960 1 301 511 038 496 090 14 948 Kwa-Zulu Natal National Candidates Enrolled/Wrote (part time) - 2011 Candidates enrolled and wrote Difference Province Number enrolled Number wrote enrolled-wrote 16 465 11 545 4 9200 2 589 1 604 985 Gauteng 35 493 28 021 7 472 Kwa-Zulu Natal 24 752 15 719 9 033 Limpopo 12 854 9 620 3 234 Mpumalanga 6 495 4 298 2 197 North West 3 144 2 382 762 Northern Cape 1 691 967 724 Western Cape 9 297 5 960 3 337 112 780 80 116 32 664 Eastern Cape Free State National NSC Full-Time Enrolments 2008-2011 22 Enrolments - NSC Part Time candidates 2008 - 2011 Overall National Results Numbers Wrote 2008 to 2011 600,000 552,073 550,000 537,543 533,561 Number 496,090 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 25 Calculation of Achievement rate and Bachelor passes Achievement rate: No. of candidates that obtained NSC ÷ No. of candidates that wrote. Bachelors: No. of candidates that achieved Bachelors ÷ Total no. of candidates that wrote. Overall performance of candidates in the 2011 NSC examination Province 2011 Total wrote Total Achieved % achieved Eastern Cape 65 359 37 997 58.1 Free State 25 932 19 618 75.7 Gauteng 85 367 69 216 81.1 122 126 83 204 68.1 Limpopo 73 731 47 091 63.9 Mpumalanga 48 135 31 187 64.8 North West 25 364 19 737 77.8 Northern Cape 10 116 6 957 68.8 Western Cape 39 960 33 110 82.9 496 090 348 117 70.2 KwaZulu Natal National NSC performance, 2008 to 2011 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 62.6 60.6 67.8 70.2 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 28 Candidates who wrote by gender 300,000 250,000 Number 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Male Female Total wrote 230,846 265,244 Total pass 166,057 182,060 Performance by Gender 2011 (Achieved/Not Achieved) 70,000 60,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 EC FS GP KZN Achieved LP MP NW NC Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female 0 Male Number 50,000 WC Not Achieved 30 Numbers Achieved per Achievement Level 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Series1 Total Entered Total Wrote 511,038 496,090 Achieve with Bachelors 120,767 Achieve with Diploma 141,584 Achieve Higher Certificate 85,296 Achieve NSC Not achieved 467 146,288 31 2011 NSC passes by type of qualification Total Wrote Achieve with Bachelor s % Achieve achieved with with Diploma Bachelor s % achieve with Diploma s Achieve Higher Certificat e % Achieve Achieve NSC with Higher Certificat e % Achieve NSC Total Achieved EC 65 359 10 291 15.7 15 530 23.8 12 102 18.5 74 0.11 37 997 FS 25 932 6 817 26.3 8 371 32.3 4 413 17.0 17 0.07 19 618 GP 85 367 30 037 35.2 27 776 32.5 11 394 13.3 9 0.01 69 216 KZN 122 126 27 397 22.4 34 190 28.0 21 331 17.5 286 0.23 83 204 LP 73 731 12 946 17.6 18 868 25.6 15 253 20.7 24 0.03 47 091 MP 48 135 8 866 18.4 13 195 27.4 9 072 18.8 54 0.11 31 187 NW 25 364 7 187 28.3 8 373 33.0 4 177 16.5 0 0.00 19 737 NC 10 116 2 012 19.9 2 871 28.4 2 074 20.5 0 0.00 6 957 WC 39 960 15 214 38.1 12 410 31.1 5 480 13.7 6 0.02 33 110 RSA 496 090 120 767 24.3 141 584 28.5 85 296 17.2 470 0.09 348 117 National Achievement Levels 2008 - 2011 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 Number wrote Total achieved 533,561 552,073 537,543 496,090 333,744 334,718 364,147 348,117 Achieve Bachelors 107,274 109,697 126,371 120,767 Achieve Diplomas 124,258 131,035 146,186 141,584 Achieve Higher Certificate 102,032 93,356 91,947 85,296 33 Comparison of Bachelors passes by provinces 2008 to 2011 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Free State 21.0 Gauteng 2008 Eastern Cape 14.4 Limpopo 30.5 KwaZuluNatal 18.2 North West 19.4 Northern Cape 20.1 Western Cape 33.0 National 12.6 Mpumala nga 13.1 2009 14.0 20.3 29.3 19.9 12.3 12.2 20.8 16.9 32.0 19.9 2010 16.0 21.4 33.9 25.7 15.6 15.8 27.7 21.1 31.5 23.5 2011 15.7 26.3 35.2 22.4 17.6 18.4 28.3 19.9 38.1 24.3 20.1 Overall performance of Learners with Special Needs in the 2011 NSC examinations Entered Eastern Cape Free State Gauteng KwaZulu Natal Limpopo Mpumalanga North West Northern Cape Western Cape National Wrote 81 41 383 6 206 0 4 118 118 957 Achieved 78 36 369 6 179 0 4 117 92 881 64 33 340 5 96 0 4 61 60 663 Gini coefficient of pass rates (2009 to 2011) 0.300 0.257 0.203 0.250 0.192 0.200 0.150 0.100 0.050 0.000 2009 2010 2011 Achievement rates within different percentage categories 3000 40.0 35.0 2500 Number 2000 25.0 1500 20.0 15.0 1000 10.0 500 5.0 0 0.0 Number of schools pass % by school Percentage 30.0 School Achievement by Quintiles 2011 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 -19.9% 20 - 39.9% 40 -59.9% 60 -79.9% 80 - 100% Exactly 100% Exactly 0% Quintile 1 49 236 440 506 413 48 4 Quintile 2 33 131 293 377 342 55 0 Quintile 3 38 152 359 457 445 58 3 Quintile 4 11 47 150 261 313 44 0 Quintile 5 9 36 77 139 562 192 2 Candidates’ performance in selected subjects 2008 – 2011 (at 30% level) 100.0 Percentage 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Accoun Agricult Busines ting ural s Science Studies s 2008 61.3 52.5 74.1 2009 61.5 51.7 71.9 Econo mics Geogra phy History Life Life Mathe Orienta Science matical tion s Literacy Mathe matics 78.0 80.4 68.7 99.5 70.5 78.6 45.4 Physica l Science s 54.9 71.6 72.3 72.2 99.6 65.5 74.7 46.0 36.8 2010 62.8 62.6 71.1 75.2 69.2 75.8 99.6 74.6 86 47.4 47.8 2011 61.6 71.3 78.6 64.0 70.0 75.9 99.6 73.2 85.9 46.3 53.4 Candidates’ performance in selected subjects 2008 – 2011 (at 40% level) 100.0 90.0 80.0 Percentage 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 Accounti Agricultu Busines ng ral s Sciences Studies 31.1 14.6 42.6 36.0 21.9 46.7 35.3 32.1 45.9 35.8 39.5 55.4 Economi Geograp cs hy 35.2 31.2 46.3 33.1 40.9 39.2 40.6 42.2 History 37.5 46.9 52.5 52.7 Life Life Mathema Mathema Physical Orientati Sciences tical tics Sciences on Literacy 96.8 39.4 54.9 29.7 28.3 98.5 39.9 51.0 29.4 20.6 98.8 51.7 64.7 30.9 29.7 98.9 46.2 65.0 30.1 33.8 40 Mathematics achieved at 30% & 40% level 2009 to 2011 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Total Wrote Achieved at 30% and above Achieved at 40% and above 2009 290,407 133,505 85,356 2010 263,034 124,749 81,374 2011 224,635 104,033 67,541 41 Physical Sciences achieved at 30% & 40% level 2009 to 2011 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Total Wrote Total achieved at 30% and above Total achieved at 40% and above 2009 220,882 81,356 45,452 2010 205,364 98,260 60,917 2011 180,585 96,441 61,109 45 District performance by achievement interval and province 2011 Province EC FS GP KZN LP MP NW NC WC Total Total number of Districts 23 5 14 12 6 4 4 5 8 81 Below 50% 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 50% to 59.9% 6 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 10 60% to 70% 8 0 1 7 3 2 0 1 0 22 70% to 80% 4 4 4 4 1 1 2 2 1 23 80% & above 0 1 10 0 0 0 2 1 7 21 46 District Performance by achievement interval 2011 25 22 23 21 Number 20 15 10 10 5 5 0 47 Bachelor Targets – Short Term National Targets Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Target 110 000 123 000 136 000 149 000 162 000 175 000 Achieved 109 697 126 371 120 767 ? ? ? Bachelor Targets - Provincial Prov 2010 Pass 2011 Target 2011 Pass 2012 Target 2013 Target 2014 Target EC 10 225 11 004 10 291 12 056 13 108 14 159 FS 5 890 6 339 6 817 6 945 7 551 8 157 GP 31 301 33 686 30 037 36 905 40 124 43 343 KZN 31 466 33 863 27 397 37 099 40 335 43 571 LP 14 757 15 881 12 946 17 399 18 917 20 436 MP 8 147 8 768 8 866 9 607 10 446 11 285 NW 8 021 8 633 7 187 9 459 10 285 11 111 NC 2 152 2 316 2 012 2 538 2 760 2 982 WC 14 412 15 510 15 214 16 992 18 474 19 956 Nat 123 000 136 000 120 767 149 000 162 000 175 000 Provinces 2010 vs. 2011 • Free State and Mpumalanga exceeded their targets, even though the numbers that wrote dropped in 2011 • E Cape had a drop, even though the numbers that wrote increased in 2011. • All other provinces had a drop in the numbers that wrote • Factors such as enrolments and previous targets not met need to be factored in when setting targets for 2012 – 2014 Diagnostic Subject Report Scope The following 11 subjects with high enrolments were analysed: • • • • • • • Physical Science Mathematics Mathematical Literacy Geography History Agricultural Sciences Life Sciences • • • • Accounting Business Studies Economics English First Additional languages 52 Methodology • 100 scripts per paper were randomly selected at each marking centre. • The scripts were randomly selected from a range of districts, to cover low, medium and high scores. • The individual scripts were scrutinized per question, to provide a detailed understanding of the nature of responses, areas of weakness. • In addition, markers, senior markers and chief markers noted learners’ responses to questions, paying particular attention to common errors and misconceptions. 53 General findings • Improvements in the quality of responses of candidates in most subjects • Even where candidates did not obtain full marks, they were not “totally off the mark” which confirms that there is improvement in teaching and learning in most schools. • Inability to answer questions assessing higher order thinking skills like problem solving, critical thinking, analysis and evaluation • Inadequacies relating to foundational competencies and basic concepts, which negatively impact on advanced learning and understanding Inadequate literacy and numeracy skills required to write proper paragraphs and do simple calculations respectively, across all subjects. • 54 Mathematical Literacy Issue Possible Cause Over reliance on ‘algorithmic procedures’ Learners do not know when to multiply whenever solving mathematical problems, often and when to divide when doing without visualizing the problem. conversions in a metric system. Learners often know that there is a 100 involved in a relationship between cm and m. What they For example, multiplying by 100 instead forget and have to remember is whether they must of dividing when converting cm to m. divide or multiply. This seems to be a pedagogical problem. Poor understanding of space, shape and Lack of use of physical objects like models and measurement. paper cuttings when dealing with aspects of For example, most learners do not know space, shape and measurement. the difference between radius and diameter. It is always difficult for a learner who cannot draw Poor interpretation of graphs. a graph to interpret one. Mathematics Issue Lack of basic foundational competencies • basic knowledge of algebra • basic trigonometric definitions and identities • spatial perception impeding the solving of 2D and 3D problems. • understanding of gradients Possible Cause Poor knowledge skills by teachers in lower grades. Lack of curriculum coverage in the lower grades Poor understanding of concepts in the curriculum that required deeper conceptual understanding. Learners are exposed to ‘stimulusresponse’ methods and rote learning Learners cannot factorise a simple expression Lack of basic knowledge. Physical Sciences Issue Possible Cause Extremely low marks for recall questions Learners do not study hard enough, no textbooks/study material Lack of practical work Teachers do not conduct experiments Lack of mathematical skills No proper foundation Lack of higher order thinking skills Learners not exposed to these type of exercises or not practised enough No linkages between topics in chemistry, knowledge isolated to chapters and confined to chapters-not used anywhere else Teaching methodology, shallow teaching, lack of deeper understanding Redox reactions still a problem due to mainly the names associated with these reactions, e.g. Teaching methodology reducing agent, being reduced and vice versa IUPAC in organic chemistry and naming of organic molecules still a big challenge Poor teaching Life Sciences Issue Possible Cause Evolution Confusion of out-of- Africa theory with fossil findings in Africa. Genetics Could not identify sex gametes Sound Amplification through biological structural adaptation Lack of application of knowledge Biological negative impacts Lack of understanding of the functions of hormones e.g. insulin Accounting Issue Possible Cause Teaching these concepts such as Cash flow appears not to be taking place in some of the Challenges with: schools The format, analysis and interpretation of Analysis and interpretation of financial financial statements (Income statement, Balance statements is ignored. sheet and Cash flow statement) Basic mathematical calculation is a challenge to most candidates No exam preparation, e.g. previous papers Challenges with: •Debtors’ collection schedule •Debtors average collection period •Analysis and interpretation of the debtors’ age analysis - Favourable and unfavourable variances •Calculation of the percentage increase in salaries and wages Most candidates could not perform the basic calculations of: •debtors’ collection schedule •debtors average collection period Interpreting the variances and offer valid solutions to rectify negative variances Learners not grounded in basic concepts Teaching in earlier grades Economics Issue Possible Cause Learners experienced difficulty with questions based on contemporary economic issues Teaching methodology Cannot link content studied to issues Most candidates did not understand certain economic concepts, for example, Economies of scale Industrial Development Zones, etc. Candidates could not interpret action verbs correctly, e.g. the different between explain and discuss. Language deficiency Reading comprehension Most candidates could not understand the action verb/key word and thus gave a wrong response Lack of higher order thinking skills, e.g. Data-response questions and the calculation of the analyse and interpret data. Trade balance. Basic mathematical calculations, e.g. Analysis and calculation of figures seem to be a figures in the Balance of Payment and the huge problem for learners format of the Balance of payment Drawing, analysis and interpretation of graphs. Interpretation of cartoons is challenging for learners Teaching of graphs. Lack of interpretation and calculation skills as well as basic knowledge relating to graphs. Business Studies Issue Possible Cause Case Studies: Some learners were unable to recognise challenges from a case study. HIV/Aids and its impact on business: the answer was aligned to Life Orientation. Teaching methodology Cannot link content studied to issues Difficulty in reading, understanding and contextualising case studies and scenarios to their specific subjects Not enough exposure/practise in these type of questions Calculations on Rate of Return and assumptions they had to make concerning the investments was a challenge. Basic mathematical calculations, e.g. calculation of the returns on Investments, simple interest Candidates could not interpret action verbs correctly, e.g. explain advertisement. Candidates could not obtain full marks due to language. Language is still a problem to most of the candidates. Interpretation of the action verbs Geography Issue Physical Geography (Climatology & Geomorphology) is still a major challenge to learners Interpretation of graphs and other diagrams. Possible cause Too abstract for teachers and learners Cannot read graphs properly Mapwork Calculations of gradient, magnetic declination and vertical exaggeration Formulae are still a problem Cross sections Cannot draw or identify features Geographic Information System (GIS): Concepts and processes Most teachers still not conversant with content History Issue Unable to ascertain usefulness, compare evidence, make judgements or interpret and analysis of sources. Possible Cause Poor teaching and learning Learners not exposed to these type of homework/classwork Failure to grasp words such as ‘limitations’, Poor teaching and learning ‘bias’, ‘similarities’ and ‘differences’. Inability to write a coherent paragraph using evidence from the sources. Poor teaching and learning Inability to write a coherent and wellbalanced essay following the given line of argument. Poor teaching and learning Umalusi Report Umalusi Findings Question Papers (a) Adherence to the 18 month cycle • Question papers are ready for external moderation as from 1 February 2012. • External moderation to be completed by 30 June 2012. (b) Concurrent moderation • Currently being implemented (c) Poor standard of English First Additional Language • DBE to appoint an independent panel to investigate this issue and will implement recommendations. Umalusi Findings School Based Assessment (a) Synergy between DBE and Umalusi Moderation processes. • Pre-moderation discussions with Umalusi to be facilitated. (b) Sub-standard Assessment Tasks • Exemplar assessment tasks to be set. • Common Assessment Tasks set for Life Orientation (c) Application of marking rubrics • Training of teachers Umalusi Findings School Based Assessment (d) • Lack of rigour of moderation at school and district levels DBE to implement focused district moderation approach (e) • Hypothesis testing in Life Sciences Teacher development programme. Umalusi Findings Conduct of the examination (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Security Vacant posts Storage facilities Independent centres. Shortage of question papers/answer books Remedial Strategies • Norms and standards for key examination processes. • Focus on provincial co-ordination and support. • Differentiated monitoring approach. • Audit of all independent centres, de-registration of centres with recurrent irregularities. . Umalusi Findings Marking (a) • Large number of marking centres. Phased in reduction of marking centres. (b) Competency of markers • Competency test for all prospective markers. • Training of markers. (c) Quality Control measures in marking • Enhancement of verification measures. . Conclusion • Set a new benchmark in attainment of achievement rate. • Improvement in percentage passes in five gateway subjects, including Physical Science. • Basic Education Sector will focus on under-performing districts. • Specific attention on Mathematics, Physical Science, Life Sciences, Economics and Accounting.