Strategies and Policy/Technology Instruments
for Sustainable Land Use and Transport
- International Comparisons Yoshitsugu Hayashi
Director, International Research Center for Sustainable Transport
and Cities, Nagoya University, Japan
Chair, Scientific Committee of WCTRS
(World Conference on Transport Research Society)
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
1
URGENT!
There is an urgent need to involve transport as a major sector in the climate change negotiation. WCTRS could
help UNFCCC and the IPCC to promote this process.
WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research
Society)
The WCTRS covers multi-modal, multi-disciplinary, and multi-sectoral fields. The
members span almost all aspects of transportation research, planning, policy and
management. The World Conferences held every 3 years mirror this breadth of
interests. 67 countries are represented in the WCTRS, with more than 1,500
members.
President:
Anthony May (University of Leeds, UK)
Chair of Scientific Committee: Yoshitsugu Hayashi (Nagoya University, Japan)
PUTTING TRANSPORT INTO
CLIMATE POLICY AGENDA
- Recommendations from WCTRS to COP17 -
WCTRS SIG11 (Special Interest Group11) - Transport and the Environment
The SIG11 aims at seeking ways to establish effective mechanisms for mitigating environmental
degradation due to transport in the international domain. The following topics are researched: a)
Comparing the emission of greenhouse gas and air pollution between countries and cities, b)
Diagnosing transport system and its resulting global and local environmental degradation and
prescribing countermeasure policies, and developing an evaluation system of their performance, c)
Providing scientific instruments for evaluation of international mechanism for environmentally
sustainable transport and the methods to collect the necessary financial resources.
Sponsored by:
Global Environment Research Fund (S-6-5), Ministry of Environment,
Japan
World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS)
http://www.wctrs.org/
Supported by:
Graduate School of Environmental Studies & Global COE Program “From
Earth Science to Basic and Clinical Environmental Studies”,
Nagoya University, Japan
College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, China
December 2011
Contact:
Hayashi and Kato Laboratory, International Center for Sustainable
Transport and Cities (SUSTRAC), Graduate School of
Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Japan
Address: 464-8603, C1-2, Nagoya, Japan
TEL:
+81-52-789-2773
E-mail: tracc@genv.nagoya-u.ac.jp
Website: http://www.sustrac.env.nagoya-u.ac.jp/en/
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
2
School boy waiting for a bus
at 4:30 am
in Suburb of Bangkok(1993)
Bangkok Post
4 Sept 1993
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
3
Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd., Bangkok
8hr+ Commuters > 10% (1993)
Photo by Yoshitsugu Hayashi(1993)
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
4
Bike Taxi in Bangkok
Photo by Yoshitsugu Hayashi(1993)
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
5
Photo by Hayashi (1993)
Sift to low-emission mode（SHIFT）
Rise of
Income
Increment of
car ownership
Motorization
Obstacle to
progress of
economy
Excessive
Traffic
demand
Insufficient
Public
Transport
Development
of
Infrastructure
Rising costs to
Econ.
Growth
Econ.
Increment of
car use
Traffic
congestion
Bottleneck of
Trafficof
Increment
Insufficiency of
Road
supply
infrastructure
Level of Technology
Urbaniza
tion
Expansion of
urban area
Urban Sprawl
Increment of
VKT
Restraint of unnecessary demand（AVOID）
7June2012
Improvement of
emission factor
（IMPROVE）
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
energy
consumption
Env.
Problems from
local to global
6
Cars per 1,000 inhabitants
500
‘95
450
Nagoya
400
350
Moscow
300
‘90
London
‘95
‘02
250
Bangkok
‘99
150 ‘70
100‘60
50
‘90
‘02
Tokyo
‘80
‘95
200
‘85
Seoul ‘00
‘80
‘90 ‘95
‘85
‘95 Singapore (CA)
Beijing
‘00 Shanghai
‘95
Hong kong
0
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
GDP per Capita US$ (1995)
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ.
7
Road Infrastructure Supply vs.
Motorization Level vs. Peak Hour Speed
1972
Bangkok
Tokyo
1971
London
Nagoya
1988
1986
1993
1993
10
7June2012
8
6
4
Speed (min/km)
2
Road length per car(m/car)
1972
18
18
16
16
14
14
1972
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
00
1972
1972
Bangkok
1987
1988
Tokyo
1971
1993
1986
London
Nagoya
1988
Shanghai
1993
100
200
300
400
500
600
Car ownership(car/1,000 inhabitants)
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
8
Motorization & Road Supply
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
9
×
AVOID
Total
Trip Generation
Emission
×
SHIFT
Degree of Car dependence
Total Trip Length
IMPROVE
Technical Level
Emission Factor
Modal Share
＝
×
year
Urban area
Concentration
of urban activity
Transport
Frequency
7June2012
×
year
year
year
Level of
congestion
Public Transport
Improvement
Fuel
Economy
Road
Improvement
LEV Ratio
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
10
CUTE Matrix: (Strategy) x (Instruments)
Strategy
Instrument
Avoid
Reduce
need to
travel
Shift
Reduce car
use
Pedestrian
friendly urban
design
Technology
TOD
Regulation
Compact
city
Mix land
use
Access
permits
Information
Teleworki
ng
Car sharing
Awareness
campaign
Economy
7June2012
Locationa
l Subsidy
Fuel tax
Road pricing
Improve
Improve
alternative
modes
Rail/bus
infrastructure
Improve road
network
Improve vehicles
and fuels
IMTS
LEV
Alternative fuel
Bus/tram
priorities
TDM
Emission
standard
Top runner
program
Bus location
system
Eco-drive
IT/ITS
Rail/bus fare
Yoshitsugu
Hayashi Laboratory,
Hayashi, Nagoya University
Road pricing
IT / ITS
LEV subsidy
LEV preferential
tax
11
CUTE Matrix: Avoid
Strategy
Instrument
Technology
Regulation
Information
Economy
7June2012
Avoid
Reduce
need to
travel
Shift
Reduce car
use
Transit
Pedestrian
Oriented
TOD
friendly urban
Development
design
(TOD)
Compact
city
Access
Mix land
permits
use
Improve
Improve
alternative
modes
Rail/bus
Railway
infrastructure
development
Bus/tram
priorities
Tokyo, London,
Teleworki
Bus location
Singapore
ng
system
Locationa Urban Compaction
Car sharing
Awareness
campaign
l Subsidy
Fuel tax
Road pricing
Rail/bus fare
Yoshitsugu
Hayashi Laboratory,
Hayashi, Nagoya University
Improve road
network
Improve vehicles
and fuels
IMTS
LEV
Alternative fuel
TDM
Emission
standard
Top runner
program
Eco-drive
IT/ITS
Road pricing
IT / ITS
LEV subsidy
LEV preferential
tax
12
AVOID
AVOID
Change in Built-up Areas
Changes in Built-up Areas
Tokyo
0
Nagoya
1910
50 km
1965
1985
London
7June2012
Bangkok
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ.
13
AVOID
Tokyo
max.
15,400
Nagoya
max. 1 7 , 1 0 0
7June2012
London
Bangkok
max. 1 1 , 5 0 0
max. 4 2 , 142 0 0
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
Transit Oriented Development
1. Purchased undeveloped land
2. Improved the infrastructure and constructed new railway
• Supermarket in station, department store in city terminal, leisure site in terminal
3. Sold the land again
• Restore the development benefits TOD without public investment
1970
New town construction by Tokyu Railway Company
Around Tana Station, Yokohama city
source:
left: http://11.pro.tok2.com/~mu3rail/link156.html
http://w3land.mlit.go.jp/WebGIS/index.html
right: Google maps
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
2012
15
CUTE Matrix: Shift
Strategy
Instrument
Avoid
Reduce
need to
travel
Shift
Reduce car
use
Pedestrian
friendly urban
design
Technology
TOD
Regulation
Compact
city
Mix land
use
Access
permits
Teleworki
ng
Car sharing
Awareness
campaign
Information
Economy
7June2012
Locationa
l Subsidy
Fuel tax
Road pricing
Improve
Improve
alternative
modes
Rail/bus
Rail
infrastructure
Improvement
Bus/tram
priorities
Improve road
network
Improve vehicles
and fuels
IMTS
LEV
Alternative fuel
TDM
Emission
standard
Top runner
program
Bangkok, Tokyo, Seoul,
Bus location
Eco-drive
IT / ITS
Shanghai,
London
system
IT/ITS
Mass Transit SystemLEVfor
subsidy
Rail/bus fare
Road pricing
LEV preferential
Urban/Sububan Lines
tax
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
16
Tokyo
Seoul
615
(15,000)
606
(1,900)
600
(2,900)
700
319
(18,000)
8.8
(35.2)
9.9
(19.9)
10.0
(18.4)
4.5
3.0
(20.0)
Urban
railway
(km)
292
338
420
138
652
Avg car
speed
(km/h)
26
17
20
32
26
Area
(km2)
Population
(million)
Shanghai Singapore
London
(): 2010 data of urban area in the Metropolitan Region (source: demographia)
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
17
walk Seoul
4%
car (23wards)
cycle Tokyo
11%
14%
walk
22%
rail
36%
bus
5%
rail
48%
(2008)
cycle
20%
Shanghai
car
20%
(city)
bus (2004)
33%
cycle
3%
7June2012
London
walk
36%
walk
27%
rail
4%
(2009)
cycle
(city)
1% car
26%
bus
29%
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
rail
17%
(Inner London)
car
25%
bus
19%
(2007)
18
D
O
Inner TOKYO 23Wards
14%
8%
Inner 10%
TOKYO
Outer TOKYO
1%
3%
17%
65%
1%
78%
23
Wards
Total : 3. 07 million trip/day
1%4%1%
0%
Outer
TOKYO
3%
Total : 0.35 illion trip/day
13%
9%
46%
29%
94%
3%
Total : 7.2 million trip/day
Total : 3.06 million trip/day
Car
Bus/Tram
Rail
Walk
Cycle
Urban Railway Network
15km
Tokyo
Seoul
10km
15km
10km
5km
5km
Tokyo
Seoul
Total Line Length 2,313
476 km
City 292
338 km
Hinterland 2,021
138 km
7June2012
© Y. Hayashi & S.Lee
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
20
Urban Railway Network
Shanghai
London
5km
5km
10km
10km
15km
15km
Total Line Length (km)
City (km)
Hinterland (km)
7June2012
Tokyo
Seoul
Shanghai
London
2,313
476
729
1,401
292
338
420
652
2,021
138
309
749
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
21
After SHIFT
SHIFT
7June2012
22
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
Photo by Hayashi(2002)
SHIFT
SHIFT
Mass-transit Network of Future
Bangkok
2010 84.8km
planning：
2016 236km
2019 391km
2029 509km （12lines）
Master Plan Study to adjust rail mass
transit system in Bangkok and its
vicinity（2010）
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
23
CO2 Emission Reduction from
Passenger Car by Railway Development
By 2050, railway will be developed as
same level in Tokyo in 2005.
Without Railway
CO2 Emission formCOPC
Change of
（comparing 2010）
Passenger-car-oriented
2 emission change rate
Development during mature stage
（2030～2050）
Developed during early stage
（2010～2030）
8
Car Ownership（Car/1000person）
PassengerPassenger
cars per 1000 inhavitants
SHIFT
SHIFT
450
2050
400
350
2050
2050
300
2050
2005
250
Bangkok
200
Shanghai
150
100
Delhi
1993
100
1965
1993 1965
1000
2050
(2010年排出量＝1)
Tokyo
1999
50
0
7
Beijing
Nagoya 2005
10000
100000
1000000
GRP par capita （US dollars in 2003）
GRP per capita [US$ in 2003]
6
Shanghai
5
4
If railway might be developed
during early stage, 36% of
CO2 can be reduced. If
including technological
innovation, around 80-86% of
CO2 can be reduce.
2050
3
2050
Delhi
2
Beijing
2050
1
2010
2010
2010 2010
Bangkok
0
1000
7June2012
10000
100000
1000000
Hayashi
Laboratory, Nagoya University* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ. 24
GRP par
capita
（US[US$
dollars
in 2003）
GRP
per capita
in 2003]
SHIFT
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
25
CUTE Matrix: Shft
Strategy
Instrument
Technology
Regulation
Information
Economy
7June2012
Avoid
Reduce
need to
travel
TOD
Shift
Reduce car
use
Pedestrian
friendly urban
design
Improve
Improve
alternative
modes
MRT
Rail/bus
LRT
infrastructure
development
Compact
city
Mix land
use
Access
permits
Bus
priority
Bus/tram
(BRT)
priorities
Teleworki
ng
Car sharing
Awareness
campaign
IT/ITS
Bus location
operation
system
system
Fuel tax
Road pricing
PT fare
Rail/bus
systemfare
Locationa
l Subsidy
Hayashi
Laboratory,
Yoshitsugu
Hayashi,Nagoya
NagoyaUniversity
University
Improve road
network
IMTS
Improve vehicles
and fuels
LEV
Alternative fuel
Singapore
&
Emission
standard
TDM Seoul
Top runner
program
Hierarchically
Eco-drive
IT / ITS
Integrated
IT/ITS
Transport
Road pricing
LEV subsidy
LEV preferential
tax
26
Recent Expansion Plan for the City Centre and
Railway Network in Singapore
Marina Bay
development
(2008)
7June2012
(Sun, G., LTA)
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
27
SHIFT
LRT Integrated with MRT in Singapore
Bukit Panjang LRT
• 8 km, 14 stations
• Opened in 1999
Sengkang LRT
•
11km, 14 stations
•
Integrated with Sengkang MRT
•
Fully-automated system
•
Opened in 2003
Punggol LRT
•
10km, 15 stations
•
Integrated with Punggol MRT
•
Fully-automated system
•
7June2012
Opened
in 2005
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
(Sun, G., 28
LTA)
SHIFT
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Seoul
Before
After
■ Expansion Plan (13 lines / 192 km)
Source: GyengChul Kim
Status of Existing Bus Lanes (2005)
• Exclusive median bus lanes: 7 lines/ 84km
• Curbside bus lanes: 293.6km
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
29
SHIFT
Hierarchical BRT System in Seoul
Increase
- Network capacity new bus route +BRT
- Bus ridership
- Bus frequency (Keep Interval)
Decrease - Total bus operation cost
> Increase - Bus company revenue
> Decrease - Subsidy of SMG
7June2012
Source: GyengChul Kim
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
30
SHIFT
Integrated Bus-Subway Operation in Seoul
Bus interval management
 Safe operation
Providing dynamic
information to public
7June2012
Source: GyengChul Kim
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
31
SHIFT
Electric Fare System (Smart card)
•Distance based fare (no change for transfers)
• Data collection for traffic management
• Non-transit applications (e.g. retail purchases, mileages)
Seoul (2004-)
7June2012
Singapore (2002-)
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
32
CUTE Matrix: Shift + Improve
Strategy
Instrument
Avoid
Reduce
need to
travel
Shift
Reduce car
use
Improve vehicles
and fuels
Rail/bus & London
Singapore
infrastructure
IMTS
Car Traffic Control
LEV
Alternative fuel
Pedestrian
friendly urban
design
TOD
Regulation
Compact
city
Mix land
use
Access
permits
Information
Teleworki
ng
Car sharing
Awareness
campaign
Economy
7June2012
Improve
alternative
modes
Improve road
network
Technology
Locationa
l Subsidy
Improve
Fuel tax
Road pricing
Car
Bus/tram
ownership &
priorities
parking
control
Bus IT/ITS
location
operation
system
system
Rail/bus
fare
Road pricing
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
TDM
Eco-drive
IT/ITS
Road pricing
Emission
standard
Emission
Top runner
Standard
program
IT / ITS
LEV subsidy
LEV preferential
tax
33
SHIFT
Car Ownership Control
Singapore
Vehicle Quota System
(VQS)
• Introduced in 1990
• Certificate of Entitlement
(COE)
– valid for 10 years
– Bid the COE
Shanghai
(Sun, G., LTA)
License Plate Auction System
• Introduced in 1997
• Bid license plates of vehicles
• The price exceeds 60,000yuan ($9,540) in 2012
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
34
SHIFT
Off-Street Parking Control in London
•Maximum car parking space by land use
Employment car parking standard
Location
Marginal floor area (m2) to
add one parking space
Central London (CAZ)
1,000 – 1,500
Inner London
600 – 1,000
Outer London
100 – 600
Residential car parking standard
Predominant
housing type
Car parking
provision
4+ bed units
2 – 1.5 spaces
3 bed units
1.5 – 1 space
1 – 2 bed units
1 to less than 1
7June2012
•Maximum car parking space by Public
Transport Accessibility Levels (PTAL)
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
35
SHIFT
On-Street Parking Control in Tokyo
• In principle, parking is prohibited on the road
• parking meters are installed in some of the road
• Management by the police
Number of cars parked in the streets in Tokyo
[cars]
100000
4 wheel
80000
60000
Tokyo St.
2wheel
40000
20000
0
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
36
SHIFT
Road Pricing in Singapore
Area Licensing Scheme (ALS)
•
Implemented in 1975
•
Reduced traffic entering the
Restricted Zone (RZ)
Electronic Road Pricing (ERP)
• Implemented in 1998
• Replaced manual ALS
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
37
(Sun, G., LTA)
SHIFT
Electronic Road Pricing (ERP)
• ERP is a congestion management tool
• Pay-as-you-use principle
• Review speed range at 3-month interval, adjust ERP rates
Expressways
Application of ITS
Increase
ERP rate
45 kph
Decrease
ERP rate
65 kph
Arterial Roads
traffic.smart
Increase
ERP rate
20 kph
7June2012
Decrease
ERP rate
30 kph
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
Courtesy of Mohinder Singh, LTA
38
SHIFT
Road Pricing in London
Congestion Charge
•
Implemented in 2003
•
The Zone of City Centre
•
Exemption introduced in 2011
for LEVs (EURO5, EV/PHV etc)
Low Emission Zone
•
Implemented in 2008
•
Freight vehicles and coaches
•
The whole city (GLA)
•
EURO3 standard
7June2012
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
39
CUTE Matrix: Improve
Strategy
Instrument
Avoid
Reduce
need to
travel
Shift
Reduce car
use
Pedestrian
friendly urban
design
Technology
TOD
Regulation
Compact
city
Mix land
use
Access
permits
Information
Teleworki
ng
Car sharing
Awareness
campaign
Economy
7June2012
Improve
Improve
alternative
modes
Rail/bus
infrastructure
Bus/tram
Japanpriorities
Top Runner Program
Locationa
l Subsidy
Fuel tax
Road pricing
Bus location
system
Rail/bus fare
Yoshitsugu
Hayashi Laboratory,
Hayashi, Nagoya University
Improve road
network
Improve vehicles
and fuels
IMTS
LEV
Alternative fuel
TDM
Emission
standard
Emission
Top
runner
Standard
program
Eco-drive
IT/ITS
Road pricing
IT / ITS
LEV subsidy
LEV preferential
tax
40
IMPROVE
g-Nox / kWh
6.0
Japan
Euro3
0.25
EU
Euro4
4.0
Euro5
2.0
US
China
Thailand
0.0
1996
2001
2006
PM
0.30
Euro2
g-PM / kWh
8.0
NOx
2011
0.20
0.15
Euro2
0.10
Euro3
Euro4,5
0.05
0.00
1996
2001
2006
2011
Atmospheric Concentrations of NOx and PM around roads in Japan
NO2
2000
NO
2005
Annual average
[mg / m3]
Annual average
[ppm]
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
1995
2010
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
1995
Source:
Ministry of Environment ,Japan,Hayashi
www.env.go.jp/air/osen/index.html
7June2012
Laboratory, Nagoya University
PM
2000
2005
2010
41
IMPROVE
Top Runner Program with vehicles
Fuel Efficiency
(km/L)
target
value
16
15km/L
14km/L
13km/L
12km/L
at the time of
standards
establishment
7June2012
List of the Specified
21 Appliances
Passenger Vehicles
Freight Vehicles
Air Conditioners
Electric Refrigerators
19km/L
Electric Freezers
Weighted
Electric Rice Cookers
average value
18km/L
Microwave Ovens
for each
Fluorescent Lights
17km/L
product
Electric Toilet Seats
category
15km/L
TV Sets (CRT, LCD, Plasma)
Video Cassette Recorders
DVD Recorders
Computers
Magnetic Disk Units
Copying Machines
Target year
Space Heaters
Gas Cooking Appliances
Gas Water Heaters
Oil Water Heaters
Vending Machines
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
Transformers
42
CUTE Matrix: Improve
Strategy
Instrument
Avoid
Reduce
need to
travel
Shift
Reduce car
use
Pedestrian
friendly urban
design
Technology
TOD
Regulation
Compact
city
Mix land
use
Access
permits
Information
Teleworki
ng
Car sharing
Awareness
campaign
Economy
7June2012
Improve
Improve
alternative
modes
Rail/bus
infrastructure
Improve road
network
Improve vehicles
and fuels
IMTS
LEV
Alternative fuel
Bus/tram
priorities
TDM
Emission
standard
Top runner
program
Bus location
system
Eco-drive
IT/ITS
Japan
Locationa
Fuel tax Taxation
Greening
l Subsidy
Rail/bus fare
Road pricing
Yoshitsugu
Hayashi Laboratory,
Hayashi, Nagoya University
Road pricing
IT / ITS
LEV
LEVsubsidy
subsidy
LEV
LEVpreferential
preferential
tax
tax
43
IMPROVE
Effects of Tax and Subsidy Policies
Methanol
No. of vehicles
Fuel
economy
[km/l]
Top Runner
Program
Observed
Greening
taxation
Estimation
Sales base
Methanol-fueled vehicle
LPG-fueled vehicle
Natural gas vehicle
Hybrid vehicle
Electrical vehicle
Top Runner
Program
Ownership
base
LPG
NGV
Greening
taxation
Real running
HV
7June2012
Yoshitsugu
Hayashi Laboratory,
Hayashi, Nagoya University
44
EV
Year
IMPROVE
Increase in Low Emission Cars
[vehicle]
1,600,000
1,400,000
EV
HV
1,200,000
HV : 1,418,400
(2.54 % of total
passenger cars)
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
EV : 16,800
(0.03 % of total
passenger cars)
400,000
200,000
0
2004
7June2012
2005
2006
Year 2008
2007
2009
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
2010
45
Scenario for Improvement of
Power Source and Fuel in the Case of Bangkok
IMPROVE
IMPROVE
•
Scenario for CO2 Emission Factor Improvement was set based on estimation in
Japan
• Production of electricity will be estimated based on scenario “increased use of
renewable energy”
CO2Emission Factor[g-CO2/km]
700
Upper level
600
500
Lower level
GV
400
300
200
HV
EV
100
0
2000
7June2012
FCV
2010
2020
2030
2040
CO2 Emission Factor for Passenger Vehicle
2050 Year
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ. 46
IMPROVE
IMPROVE
Scenario for Low-emission Vehicle Diffusion
Number of registered Vehicle [‘000]
Based on Estimation in Japan, passenger car using gasoline will be
0% with the scenario that motorcycle will sift to passenger car,
400
Gasoline
二輪GV
Motorcycle
300
Electric
二輪EV
Motorcycle
Gasoline
200
普通GV
Passenger Car
100
HV
Passenger Car
Hybrid
Electric
普通EV
Passenger Car
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ.
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47
IMPROVE
Identifying A Necessary Policy Package
Extensive Measures Needed for Low-Carbon Transport
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50
40
Mitigation from
AVOID
SHIFT
IMPROVE
Do Nothing
30
20
10
70%
0
2005
CO2 mitigation Scenario
2015
2025
2035
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE
CO2 emissions from passenger
cars in Bangkok (Mt/year)
60
2045 2050
48
Comprehensive Strategy to Achieve CO2 Emission
Reduction Target
From the view point of energy consumption
Biomass
Energy Source
Modal Share
Diesel
Electricity
Gasoline
Diesel
CNG
Electricity
CNG Public
Bus
Gasoline
-30%
Rail
MC
Diesel CNG
PC
Electricity
Gasoline
-50%
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×
AVOID
Total
Trip Generation
Emission
×
SHIFT
Degree of Car dependence
Total Trip Length
IMPROVE
Technical Level
Emission Factor
Modal Share
＝
×
year
Urban area
Concentration
of urban activity
Transport
Frequency
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×
year
year
year
Level of
congestion
Public Transport
Improvement
Fuel
Economy
Road
Improvement
LEV Ratio
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50
Conclusion
• CUTE Matrix: (Strategy) x (Instruments) for
• Decomposition for understand Urban Transport Emission:
,
and
• Back-casting approach for seeking effective combinations
• Scenario and Roadmap
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51
Conclusion
• To realize the low-carbon society, leapfrog
development is necessary in Asian developing cities.
• Thus, the future vision of low-carbon society which will
achieve huge reduction of CO2 emission should be
established firstly.
• Impacts of each avoid, sift and improve measures
should be clarified.
• Then, thier effective combinations should be examined
through backcasting approach.
• Finally the available scenario should be set up for the
roadmap of each city.
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