Pacific Command
Operation Science and Technology
Conference
28 August 2014
David M Shanahan
Deputy Dean of Academics
shanahand@apcss.org
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Mission
Building capacities and communities of interest
Change the
World
!
Advance Asia-Pacific security
by
Educating, Connecting, and Empowering security
practitioners
to
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APCSS Delivers Value
Curriculum that teaches critical thinking
--the foundation to deal with whatever challenges, threats and opportunities
the future may bring
Courses where security practitioners practice
multilateral, whole-of-society collaboration
--case studies and projects with real-world application
Foundations of fellowship that endure
--after 18+ years in operation, 60% of APCSS alumni are still in touch
APCSS builds capacity and communities of interest
to advance security in the critical Asia-Pacific region
(
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• APCSS receives:
– Direction from U.S. Pacific
Command
– Policy guidance from the
Office of the Secretary of
Defense for Policy
– Funding via the Defense
Security Cooperation
Agency
Established in 1995, APCSS is one of five
U.S. Department of Defense Regional
Centers.
•George C Marshall Center for European Sec Studies
•William Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies
•Africa Center for Security Studies
•Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies
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Core Curriculum
• Advanced Security Cooperation Course (ASC)
• Comprehensive Crisis Management Course (CCM)
• Comprehensive Security Responses to Terrorism
Course (CSRT)
• Transnational Security Cooperation Course (TSC)
• Asia-Pacific Orientation Course (APOC)
• Senior Asia-Pacific Orientation Course (SEAPOC)
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FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
FY14 Workshops
• Regional Workshops
– Exploiting the Crime-Terror Nexus—Countering Violent Extremism through Multisectoral Information and Intelligence Sharing: February 2014 Manila Philippines
– U.S.- China: Building Strategic Trust: Nov 2013 Beijing China
– Regional Security Governance & Architecture in the Pacific Islands Region: Priorities
for a Resilient Future Aug 2014 Port Vila Vanuatu
– Myanmar Security Sector Development (SSD): Aug 2014 Naypyitaw Myanmar
– Maritime Resource Management : Gulf of Thailand Initiative: Aug 2014 Singapore
• Hawaii Workshops
– US-JA-INDIA Tri-Lat – HADR Cooperation : May 2014
– Australia and New Zealand Defense Force Command and Staff College-APCSS Joint
Seminar on Global Security Issues Workshops (2 separate events) Nov 2013
(DELIBERATIVE DOCUMENT: For discussion purposes only.
Draft working papers. Do not release under FOIA)
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
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Proposed FY15 Workshops
“Managing Security
Implications of Labor
Mobility” (location TBD)
“Building National
Biosecurity Strategies”
(Manila RP)
(SEA & CSRT focus)
“Security Sector
Development”
(SSD/Burma)
“Building Collaboration
in South Asia Disaster
Risk Reduction”
(Sri Lanka)
(India/SA & CCM focus)
“Energy Security”
(China/NEA)
Ensuring Security
in a Changing
Arctic ”
OSD-Directed: “Defense
Strategies Beyond White
Papers” (OSD/China)
“Vietnam Bilat
with Ho Chi Minh
Academy”
“Multilat Command &
Staff College Workshop”
“Security Sector
Development”
(SSD/Fiji)
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APCSS Alumni
Oceania
Organizations
American Samoa 23* (5)
South Asia
ASEAN 7 (7)
Asian Dev. Bank 2 (2)
Pacific Island Forum 2 (0)
United Nations 5 (12)
Int. Cmte of Red Cross 0 (4)
World Bank 0 (7)
Int. Maritime4 Org. 0 (4)
India 275* (26)
Maldives 98* (16)
Nepal 273* (26)
Sri Lanka 258* (26)
Afghanistan 42* (13)
North East Asia
China 87* (21)
Chile 55* (9)
Comoros 20* (5)
Madagascar 38*
Mauritius 46* (5)
Pakistan 240* (25)
Cook Islands 20* (5)
Bhutan 37* (5)
“Seam “Countries
Canada 92* (17)
Australia 199* (25)
Bangladesh 267* (26)
Hong Kong 15* (12)
Japan 95* (18)
Mongolia 187* (21)
Republic of Korea 167* (25)
South East Asia
Fiji 103* (13)
Brunei 63 (8)
French Republic 18 (4)
Cambodia 125* (16)
Guam 23* (2)
Indonesia 248* (25)
Kiribati 32 (4)
Laos 106* (16)
Marshall Islands 37* (5)
Malaysia 281* (26)
Micronesia 81* (10)
Myanmar 8 (12)
Nauru 11 (5)
Papua New Guinea 110* (9)
New Zealand 152* (11)
Philippines 304* (25)
Niue Island 8 (4)
Singapore 110* (11)
North Mariana Islands 13
Thailand 308* (26)
Palau 30* (10)
Timor-Leste 48* (6)
Saipan 11 (1)
Vietnam 149* (21)
Samoa 20* (5)
Russia 106* (10)
Peru 15* (9)
United States 2559*
Solomon Islands 25* (5)
Tonga 61* (9)
Taiwan 102* (14)
Tuvalu 25* (5)
Vanuatu 29* (5)
53 Other Locations
184 (65)
8,879 Alumni
FY 14 Fellow
Projection in ( )
Over 100 Locations … 7 International Organizations … 56 Alumni Associations* 8
30 June 2014
Substantive Outcomes
Timor-Leste
National Security Policy
Bangladesh
CT Framework Strategy
Philippines
National Security Policy
Maldives
National Security Framework
Philippines
Bayanihan Peace Plan &
CT Strategy
Workshop
Fellows Project
Fellows Project/ Workshop Combination
Other
Mongolia
Constitutional Framework
for National Security
New Zealand
Earthquake Response
United States
SOCPAC MEOPT Concept
Mongolia
National Security Framework
Indonesia
Draft National Security Law
Nepal
UNDP Annual Work Plan
for Earthquake Prep
Nepal
Maoist Integration in Army
Papua New Guinea
National Security Policy
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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APCSS Prioritized Outcomes & Impacts
(as of 30 June 2014)
Country
Year Begun
Workshop / Fellows Project
Status
Philippines
2010
Bayanihan Internal Peace and Security Plan & CT
Strategy, merging kinetic & socio-econ responses
Implemented by President
Nepal
2013
Completed DDR program for Maoist integration in Army
Implemented
Papua New
Guinea
2013
Developed first ever National Security Policy
Approved by Parliament;
implementation underway
Mongolia
2010
Legislated updates to Constitutional Framework
supporting National Security
Passed in parliament
Philippines
2009
National Security Policy
Finalized
Timor-Leste
2009
National Security Policy
Finalized
Indonesia
2011
Updated National Security Law
In parliamentary committee
Mongolia
2012
New Prioritized National Security Framework
Approved by President
Maldives
2009 & 2010,
with DIRI
National Security Framework, including new National
Security Council
Stand Up of new NSC underway
Bangladesh
2009, with DIRI
CT Framework Strategy, aligned with SAARC
Final Implementation underway
New Zealand
2010
NZ Police response following Christchurch earthquake
Effectively managed broad,
international dimensions
Nepal
2014
Earthquake preparedness program
In UNDP Annual Work Plan;
being implemented
United States
2013
Activation of SOCPAC/SOCOM Multinational
Engagement Operational Planning Team (MEOPT)
engagement options
Pending funding; SOCPAC
implemented modified form
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Pre Conference Survey
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Pre-Conference Survey
1. I think the area of technology that will have the most
profound effect on regional nations’ comprehensive
security (social, economic, political as well as diplomatic
and military security) in the mid-term future (5-15 years) is:
Energy
Information
Climate Adaptation and Resilience
Robotics
Biogenetics
Nano-scale Engineering
47%
32%
13%
5%
3%
0%
52%
43%
NA
2%
1%
1%
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Pre-Conference Survey
2. What policy/investment approach should governments
prioritize in order to most effectively contend with the security
effects of climate change?
POST 2013
58%
35%
• Minimize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations 16%
through emissions control and improved agricultural
and forestry practices
28%
• Geo-engineering strategies to change atmospheric
content
3%
10%
• Adopt a wait and see approachowing to inconclusive
nature of climate science
24%
27%
• Adaptation strategies aimed to mitigate
climate change effects
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Pre-Conference Survey
3. What S&T program approach represents the most
fruitful opportunity to address climate change and
strengthen relationships in the Asia Pacific?
• Hold multilateral conferences and workshops to
disseminate new knowledge on the impacts of climate
change and adaptation to them.
• Conduct bilateral technology demonstration projects
for resilience and adaptation techniques.
• Establish international R&D centers for science and
policy to address climate related security problems
shared by Asia Pacific nations.
35%
37%
28%
29%
10%
34%
27%
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Pre-Conference Survey
4. Global Energy Security will be best ensured by
policy approaches that emphasize :
POST 2013
National strategies for energy
Independence
Cooperative strategies and mechanisms
ensuring open market access for all
energy recourses
Conservation
Nations securing source supplier
allocation commitments
24%
49%
61%
31%
17%
17%
0%
0%
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Pre-Conference Survey
5. The best opportunity for cooperation in enhanced
Energy Security in the Asia Pacific is: :
• Joint Exploration for Oil and Natural Gas
5%
• Joint Research on Renewable Energy
37%
• Joint Efforts on reducing demand
16%
• A collaborative Market approach to
Energy Security
42%
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Pre-Conference Survey
6. The best role (in its own interest of fostering a viable
global cyber market) for the technology community is to:
Develop “open” systems that make both faults and fixes
transparent to all
5%
Work with regional policy makers in gaining political
agreements on systemic security measures
21%
Engage its member organizations and enterprises in an
international educational program designed to create
awareness of, and a desire to act on the need for, common
cyber security
Work on cyber forensic tools and system changes aimed at
real time discovery and attribution of cyber attacks
18%
55%
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Pre-Conference Survey
7. To assist in building long-term partner nation capacity to contribute
to regional security, the technology community should help regional
nations focus on:
11%
• Traditional security related technologies (e.g. C2/ISR, cyber and
kenetic)
• Move rapidly from their current levels of technology to “game
changing”
• Technologies beginning to be deployed elsewhere (leap-frogging)
11%
18%
• Dual use technologies that can be used both in traditional
political/military security but also to support economic and social
development (e.g. Big Data, 3D printing, robotics)
37%
• Acquiring technologies that incrementally improve their capacities
24%
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Pre-Conference Survey
8. What approach to water security hold the most
potential for effectively addressing A-P water security
Issues over the next 5-10 years :
• Conservation efforts and movement from
water intensive agricultural crops and
techniques
21%
• Increased water supply thru technology enabled
cheap desalinization
63%
• Bilateral and Multilateral water sharing
agreements
16%
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Pre-Conference Survey
6. Security of the maritime economic zones and commons is
most effectively maintained through strengthening:
POST 2013
Maritime forces that can monitor and
unilaterally protect national areas of interest
17.1%
The web of maritime law, convention,
and accepted practice
11.0%
Cooperative processes and exercises that
build maritime relationships among regional
and sub-regional partners enabling collective
effort
72.0%
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Pre-Conference Survey
7. Maritime security of the United States in the Asia Pacific will
be best advanced by technological investments in:
POST 2013
Maritime domain awareness
61%
Asymmetric deterrents to conventional
platforms of others
38%
Conventional commercial and military
shipbuilding
1%
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Watterson, Bill. “Calvin and Hobbes: Cartoon Universal Press Syndicate 1993
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