IF COLEMAN’S BOAT MAKES WATER,
WHAT WILL KEEP SOCIOLOGY AFLOAT?
PRESENTATION AT THE
DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY
OTTO-FRIEDRICH-UNIVERSITÄT BAMBERG
NOVEMBER 13, 2007
WOUT ULTEE
DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY
RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN
posted at http://www.socsci.ru.nl/maw/sociologie/ultee/
AT FIRST SIGHT
THROUGHOUT SOCIOLOGY’S HISTORY
THE GERMAN INPUT TO INTERNATIONAL SOCIOLOGY
HAS HINDERED PROGRESS IN THAT DISCIPLINE
MARXIST DOGMATISM
UNDIGESTABLE MAX WEBER
THE POSITIVISMUSSTREIT FROM 1961 TO 1969
LUHMANN’S PHENOMENOLOGICAL FUNCTIONALISM
WEBER EXEGESIS
BECK’S RISK SOCIETY
UPON CLOSER INSPECTION
IN THE PAST DECADES SOMETHING EMERGED
THAT MIGHT BE CALLED
EUROPEAN
RIGOROUS
SOCIOLOGY
AND THAT HAPPENED
BECAUSE OF BENEFICIAL GERMAN INFLUENCES
THIS HAPPENED FIRST
BECAUSE OF GERMAN MONEY
FROM THE VOLKSWAGENSTIFTUNG
ERKISON & GOLDTHORPE’S 1992
THE CONSTANT FLUX
SET THE EXAMPLE FOR BREEN’S 2004
SOCIAL MOBILITY IN EUROPE
THIS HAPPENED SECOND
BECAUSE OF GERMAN MONEY
FOR A SONDERFORSCHUNGSBEREICH
IT PITTED THE PANEL OF THE ECONOMIST HAUSER
AGAINST THE RETROSPECTIVE DATA OF THE
SOCIOLOGIST MAYER
AND THAT BATTLE, AT LEAST INITIALLY IN 1989,
WAS WON BY THAT GERMAN SOCIOLOGIST
MAYER SHOWED THE WAY TOWARDS THE COLLECTION
OF RETROSPECTIVE LIFE-COURSE DATA
FOR OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
THIS HAPPENED THIRD
BECAUSE OF A JOURNAL CALLED
THE EUROPEAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
FOUNDED IN 1985
AND EDITED FOR YEARS NOW
BY THE GERMAN SOCIOLOGIST
BLOSSFELD
WITH THE EUROPEAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
OVERTAKING THE
AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
TODAY I WOULD LIKE TO ADDRESS THE
TOPIC OF HOW
EUROPEAN
RIGOROUS
SOCIOLOGY
MIGHT BECOME
MORE CUMULATIVE
WHY IS CUMULATION DESIRABLE?
FIRST
EVERY ARTICLE IN THE EUROPEAN
SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
TAKEN ON ITS OWN
MAY BE GOOD
BUT SOCIOLOGY AS A WHOLE MAY STILL
DISPLAY A LOT OF STAGNATION
AND LITTLE PROGRESS
WHY IS MORE CUMULATION DESIRABLE?
SECOND
THE BRIDGE BETWEEN THEORY AND
RESEARCH REMAINS UNFINISHED
RATIONAL ACTION THEORY (RAT)
AND THE QUANTATIVE ANALYSIS OF
LARGE-SCALE DATA SETS (QAD)
SINCE 1998 HAVE NOT TIED THE KNOT
RAT IS CALLING QAD NAMES: VARIABLE SOCIOLOGY
WITH DUNCAN’S 1967 MODEL OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC
LIFE CYCLE AS THE SCAPEGOAT
WHY IS MORE CUMULATION DESIRABLE?
THIRD
THE LESSON I DRAW FROM
PARTICIPATION IN THE DUTCH
GRADUATE SCHOOL ICS IS THAT
RAT COMES TOO CLOSE TO
ECONOMICS, MATHEMATICS AND
PSYCHOLOGY
AND TOO DISTANT FROM
SOCIOLOGY’S QUESTIONS ABOUT
SOCIETIES
HOW TO OBTAIN MORE CUMULATION?
THE AGE-OLD DIAGNOSIS OF WHAT IS
WRONG WITH SOCIOLOGY:
THE SCANDAL OF THE GAP BETWEEN
THEORY AND RESEARCH
THE OLD REMEDY:
THEORY-GUIDED RESEARCH
WITH A THEORY, SAY RAT, YIELDING
TESTABLE HYPOTHESES,
AND RESEARCH, SAY QAD, AS TESTING
THESE HYPOTHESES
MY DIAGNOSIS OF
WHAT ELSE IS WRONG WITH SOCIOLOGY
FIRST
THE NON-RELATION IN SOCIOLOGY BETWEEN
GENERAL HYPOTHESES AND SPECIFIC HYPOTHESES
NEW REMEDY:
BUILD MULTI-LAYERED THEORIES
CONSISTING OF MORE GENERAL AND
LESS GENERAL HYPOTHESES
DERIVE MACRO PROPOSITIONS FROM
MICRO PROPOSITIONS BY USING
COLEMAN’S BOAT AS A
CONJUGATION SCHEME
MY DIAGNOSIS OF
WHAT ELSE IS WRONG WITH SOCIOLOGY
SECOND
THE NON-RELATION BETWEEN SOCIOLOGY’S MANY
QUESTIONS
NEW REMEDIES:
TAKE PRESENT-DAY SMALL DOABLE QUESTIONS AS
SUB-QUESTIONS OF LONG-STANDING CENTRAL
QUESTIONS
DEVISE STRINGS OF DEEPER AND DEEPER QUESTIONS
QUESTION-DRIVEN THEORIZING
RATIONAL CHOICE EXPLANATIONS AND
EXPLANATIONS OF ANY OTHER TYPE
SHOULD NOT ENGAGE IN CHERRY PICKING
CONTEMPORARY EXPLANATIONS SHOULD TAKE UP
AND IMPROVE AND SOMETIMES RECAST
SOCIOLOGY’S CLASSICAL QUESTIONS
BUT NEVER DISMISS THEM
THREE CLASSICAL
PROBLEM SHIFTS AND PROBLEM STRUCTURES
IN SOCIOLOGY
ORDER AND
VIOLENCE
COHESION
SOCIAL
ISOLATION
SUICIDE
INEQUALITY
WEALTH OF NATIONS
MOBILITY
RATIONALIZATION
RELATIVE
MOBILITY
BUREAUCRATIZATION
RELATIVE
HETEROGAMY
DISENCHANTMENT
REFINEMENT OF
MANNERS
SECULARIZATION
WHAT I AM GOING TO SAY IS THAT
COLEMAN’S BOAT HAS BEEN TAKEN
IN THE NETHERLANDS
AS SEAWORTHY
WHILE I TAKE IT AS A RAFT THAT SEEKS TO MOVE
WITHOUT MASTS AND SAILS
AND WITHOUT AN ANCHOR
COLEMAN IS TOO NEGATIVE ABOUT THE
QUESTIONS, THEORIES AND RESEARCH TECHNIQUES OF
CLASSICAL SOCIOLOGY
RESEARCH FINDINGS MAY NOT ONLY TEST THEORIES
THEY ALSO MAY PROVOKE EXPLANATIONS
AN EXAMPLE FROM CLASSICAL SOCIOLOGY IS
WEBER’S TABLE THAT AROUND 1900 IN GERMAN STATES WITH A
RELGIOUSLY MIXED POPULATION
PROTESTANTS ARE OVERREPRESENTED AMONG THE BUSINESS
OWNERS AND SKILLED WORKERS AND
CHILDREN OF PROTESTANTS AMONG THE VISITORS OF COMMERCIALLY
AND TECHNICALLY ORIENTED SECONDARY SCHOOLS
BUT DO ALL TABLES YIELD PUZZLING FINDINGS?
PUZZLES ARE THE THING TO GO AFTER!
RAT UNTIL NOW HAS BEEN A
PARADIGM LARGELY WITHOUT
PUZZLES
AND EVEN MORE SO WITHOUT
PUZZLES ABOUT SOCIETIES
GOLDTHORPIAN RAT SEEKS TO
EXPLAIN AN EMPIRICAL
REGULARITY
WHICH IS NOT MUCH OF A PUZZLE
WHAT IS PUZZLING ABOUT THE FINDING
FOR ALL INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
THAT CHILDREN FROM UPPER-CLASS
PARENTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OPT FOR
AND ATTAIN HIGHER LEVELS OF
SCHOOLING
EVEN AFTER TAKING INTELLIGENCE INTO
ACCOUNT?
A PUZZLE WOULD BE:
WHY DOESN’T IN COUNTRIES WITH A
SYSTEM OF STIPENDS FOR LOWER CLASS CHILDREN
THE TIE BETWEEN CLASS OF ORIGIN
AND LEVEL OF EDUCATION WEAKEN ?
BUT THERE IS NO SUCH PUZZLE
SINCE EDUCATIONAL INEQUALITIES
ARE DECREASING IN MOST INDUSTRIAL
COUNTRIES !
THERE IS NOTHING PUZZLING ABOUT THE
FINDING THAT IN ALL EU-COUNTRIES
UNEMPLOYMENT COMES IN COUPLES
BUT WHY DOES UNEMPLOYMENT STILL
COME IN COUPLES
AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
EDUCATIONAL AND AGE HOMOGAMY ?
THAT IS A PUZZLE !
MORE PUZZLES 1
WHY ARE IN ALL INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES
PEOPLE WITH MORE SCHOOLING LESS LIKELY
TO BE UNEMPLOYED?
BECAUSE THEY ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE FIRED
OR BECAUSE THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO FIND
A NEW JOB AFTER FIRING?
SURELY, IF ENTERPRISES CLOSE
PERSONS WITH MORE SCHOOLING ARE AS
LIKELY TO BE FIRED AS PERSONS WITH LESS
SCHOOLING!
MORE PUZZLES 2 AND 3
HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT IN THE NETHERLANDS
IN THE 1960S THE PERCENT OF CATHOLICS ROSE
WHILE CATHOLICS LEFT CHURCH IN THRONGS?
HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT RIGHT NOW
WORLDWIDE THE PERCENT OF RELIGIOUS
PERSONS GROWS
AND IN EACH COUNTRY THE PERCENT OF
RELIGIOUS PERSONS STAYS STABLE OR FALLS?
DO CHURCHES GROW BECAUSE OF HIGHER
FERTITLITY OR BECAUSE OF SWITCHING?
PUZZLE 4
WHY DO
MORE LIBERAL ABORTION
LAWS IN A COUNTRY
NOT ALWAYS MAKE FOR MORE
ABORTIONS?
PUZZLE 5
HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT
COUNTRIES WHERE
PERSONS HAVE THE
HIGHEST NUMBER OF
SEXUAL PARTNERS
ALSO HAVE THE LOWEST
INCIDENCE OF
SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED
INFECTIONS AND
UNPLANNED
PREGNANCIES?
PUZZLE 6 NOT ABOUT SOCIETIES BUT
ABOUT THE WORLD AND ITS STATES
HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT
RIGHT NOW
WORLD INCOME INEQUALITY
DECREASES
WHILE INCOME INEQUALITY IN
EVERY COUNTRY
INCREASES?
PUZZLE 7 ABOUT SOCIETIES AND INDIVIDUALS
HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT MORE
CRIMINOLOGISTS IN A COUNTRY GOES HAND
IN HAND WITH MORE CRIME?
CRIMINOLOGISTS ARE MORE CRIMINAL THAN
THE REST?
DO CRIMINOLOGISTS THROUGH WISHYWASHY ADVICE INCREASE THE CHANCES
THAT FIRST-OFFENDERS BECOME
RECIDIVISTS?
COLEMAN 1987
DISMISSES DURKHEIM’S QUESTIONS ABOUT
SUICIDE AS SOCIOLOGICAL PUZZLES
SUICIDE IS AN INDIVIDUAL PHENOMENON
DURKHEIM AT BEST BRINGS IN SOCIAL
PHENOMENA AS EXPLANATORY FACTORS
HOWEVER
FOR DURKHEIM A HIGHER SUICIDE RATE
INDICATES LIMITED SOCIETAL COHESION
AND ALL OF DURKHEIM’S WORK WAS
CONCERNED WITH SPECIFIC COHESION
QUESTIONS
SOCIETAL COHESION OR
THE TIES BETWEEN THE MEMBERS OF A SOCIETY
ECONOMIC TIES
THROUGH
THE
DIVISION OF LABOUR
1885
SEVERING
THE LAST TIE TO
SOCIETY THROUGH
SUICIDE
1897
SOCIAL TIES
THROUGH
RELIGIOUS RITES
1912
DOES COLEMAN HAVE SUCH A PROBLEM STRUCTURE?
DOES COLEMAN DIRECT SOCIOLOGISTS TO
OVERARCHING QUESTIONS AND SUB-QUESTIONS?
COLEMAN ALSO MISJUDGES THE DEPTH OF WEBER’S
QUESTION ABOUT PROTESTANTISM AND CAPITALISM AND
THE ANTI-RAT CHARACTER OF HIS EXPLANATION
WEBER AS A HISTORIAN OF LAW REJECTED SMITH’S
MACRO-HYPOTHESIS THAT
LAWS STIPULATING FREEDOM OF ENTERPRISE, LABOUR,
PRICES ETC MAKE FOR THE WEALTH OF NATIONS
THESE LAWS WERE THERE IN CHINA, AND ECONOMIC
GROWTH DID NOT HAPPEN THERE
AND THESE LAWS DIFFERED HARDLY FROM 15TH CENTURY
ITALY AND 17TH CENTURY ENGLAND AND THE
NETHERLANDS
WHILE STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH ONLY HAPPENED IN
ENGLAND AND THE NETHERLANDS
WEBER HAD A PUZZLE ABOUT SOCIETIES
Coleman, ‘Microfoundations of macrosocial behavior’, page 159
WEBER HAD A PUZZLE ABOUT SOCIETIES
TO SOLVE THAT PUZZLE
WEBER WENT BACK TO THE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL
HUMAN BEHAVIOUR IS NOT ONLY DETERMINED BY
OPPORTUNITIES, BUT ALSO BY MOTIVATIONS
WHY DID THE PEOPLE IN CHINA AND IN 15TH CENTURY ITALY
NOT USE THE OPPORTUNITIES THE LAWS OFFERED AND
ACCUMULATE WEALTH IN THIS WAY?
WHICH MOTIVATION DID THE PEOPLE IN 17TH CENTURY
ENGLAND AND THE NETHERLANDS HAVE
TO USE THE FREEDOMS OF LABOUR, ENTERPRISE, ETC?
ACCORDING TO LINDENBERG CUM SUIS OF THE ICS
EXPLANATIONS OF MACRO PHENOMENA SHOULD START FROM
THE ASSUMPTION THAT PEOPLE ACT RATIONALLY
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL QUITE
DIFFERENT RATIONAL CHOICE EXPLANATIONS OF
ONE EMPIRICAL REGULARITY
WHEREAS THE MOST GENERAL HYPOTHESIS OF A
MULTI-LAYERED THEORY SHOULD EXPLAIN
SEVERAL REGULARITIES IN ONE STROKE
THAT IS WHY I LIKE TO GO BACK TO DURKHEIM’S EXPLANATION OF
SUICIDE REGULARITIES
AND LENSKI’S S PRINCIPLE THAT RESOURCES MAKE FOR
PRIVILEGES
ACCORDING TO COLEMAN
THERE ARE DIFFICULTIES WITH EXEMPLARS OF THE
SOCIOLOGICAL ENTERPRISE WHEN
DERIVING PROPOSITIONS ABOUT SOCIETIES FROM
PROPOSITIONS ABOUT INDIVIDUALS
THESE DIFFICULTIES HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE
INTERNATIONAL LITERATURE BY WAY OF
COLEMAN’S BOAT
COLEMAN’S BOAT DOES NOT SOLVE THEM
COLEMAN’S BOAT AGGREVATES THEM
COLEMAN, FOUNDATIONS, 1990, page 6:
‘THE MAJOR PROBLEM FOR EXPLANATIONS OF
SYSTEM BEHAVIOR
BASED ON ACTIONS AND ORIENTATIONS AT A
LEVEL BELOW THAT OF THE SYSTEM
IS THAT OF MOVING FROM THE LOWER LEVEL TO
THE SYSTEM LEVEL’
NOTE:
COLOEMAN DOES NOT TALK ABOUT MOVING FROM THE
HIGHER TO THE LOWER LEVEL
THE SOLUTION: COLEMAN’S BOAT
TAKEN FROM HEDSTRÖM 2005 page 115
LINE 4 SHOULD HAVE NO DOTS, THE OTHER LINES SHOULD BE DOTTED
PROBLEMS PRECEDE THEORIES
PUZZLES ARE ‘ANCHORS’ FOR
COLEMAN’S BOAT
BUT IN THE BOAT THEY ARE ON TOP!
MACROPUZZLES
MAKE IT POSSIBLE TO MOVE
FROM MACROTHEORIES TO
MICROTHEORIES
WEBER’S EXPLANATION IN TERMS OF COLEMAN’S BOAT
SMITH HAD A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TWO MACRO-PROPERTIES
ONE MACRO-PROPERTY REFERS TO A COUNTRY’S LAWS
WHERE TO PLACE THIS COLLECTIVE ACTOR?
WEBER ALSO HAD A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN A MACRO-PROPERTY
AND AN INDIVIDUAL PROPERTY
LAWS STIPULATING FREEDOMS ARE FOR INDIVIDUALS
OPPORTUNITIES TO ACT
WEBER HAD THE SAME RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AN INDIVIDUAL’S
ACTIONS AND THE SOCIETAL OUTCOME AS SMITH
IF A MEMBER OF A SOCIETY ACCUMULATES MORE WEALTH,
NATIONAL INCOME GROWS
MARKETS AS LEGAL
OPPORTUNITIES
INDIVIDUAL
MOTIVATIONS
WEALTH OF
NATIONS
INDIVIDUAL
WEALTH
IN COLEMAN’S READING WEBER HAD AN ARROW
BETWEEN TWO INDIVIDUAL PROPERTIES
IN MY OPINION WEBER TOOK TWO PROPERTIES
AS THE JOINT CAUSE OF BEHAVIOUR :
OPPORTUNITIES PLUS MOTIVATIONS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SMITH AND WEBER WAS
THAT THE ACCUMULATION OF WEALTH WAS AN
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE OF THE RATIONALIZATION
OF THE MEANS OF SALVATION
WEBER HAD IDEAS ABOUT TWISTED MOTIVATIONS
COLEMAN’S BOAT APPLIED TO
INEQUALITY
SOCIETAL
EDUCATIONAL
INEQUALITY
INDIVIDUAL
EDUCATION
SOCIETAL
INCOME
INEQUALITY
INDIVIDUAL
INCOME
Coleman, ‘Microfoundations and macrosocial behavior’, 1987, page 165
THE MOST COMMON MACRO-PROPOSITION ABOUT INEQUALITY
SINCE LENSKI’S 1966 POWER AND PRIVILEGE
LEFT-WING GOVERNMENTS MAKE FOR LOWER GINI’S
GOING BACK TO A LOWER LAYER EXPLANATION
YIELDS AN ALTERNATIVE MEASURE FOR INCOME INEQUALITY
DO NOT COMPUTE GINI’S, COMPUTE DECILE SHARES
THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE BOAT IS REPLACED
UNDERLYING LOWER-LAYER HYPOTHESIS
IN A DEMOCRACY, TO GOVERN ANY PARTY MUST CATER TO AT
LEAST 51 % OF THE VOTERS
FOR THAT REASON THERE NEVER WILL BE A REDISTRIBUTION
FROM THE HIGHEST TO THE LOWEST DECILE
THE LOWEST DECILE WILL NOT BENEFIT MUCH FROM ANY
GOVERNMENT - WHETHER LEFT OR RIGHT
NEVER AGGREGATE INDIVIDUAL INCOME INTO GINI’S
COMPUTE DECILE SHARES
THE MORE INFORMATIVE LOWER -LAYER HYPOTHESIS DOES AWAY
WITH TOO GENERAL MACRO - MEASURES FOR INEQUALITY
NOT THAT THESE MEASSURES ARE WRONG
THESE MEASURES DO NOT FIT THE HYPOTHESES AT HAND
BOUDON CURSED
DUNCAN’S MODEL AS
VARIABLE SOCIOLOGY
THAT TERM OF OPPROBATION
WAS APPLIED AGAIN
TO DUNCAN’S MODEL BY HEDSTRÖM
AND IS NOW APPLIED GENERALLY
BY ESSER
DUNCAN THE AMERICAN OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE 1967 page 170
THE BASIC MODEL, WHICH PERTAINS TO THE USA IN 1962
SURELY, FIVE INDIVIDUAL VARIABLES
DOTS REFER TO VARIABLES, ARROWS STAND FOR EFFECTS
MISSING
COEFFICIENTS
.342
.321
.288
.313
DUNCAN’S INGREDIENTS OF ADVANCED
MODELS FOR FOUR AGE GROUPS
DUNCAN COMPUTED FOUR MODELS TO TEST
THE HYPOTHESIS THAT
THE SHIFT FROM AGRICULTURE TO INDUSTRY
IN A COUNTRY
WEAKENS THE TIE BETWEEN FATHER’S AND
SON’S OCCUPATION
AND STRENGTHENS THE BOND BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION AND OCCUPATION
IS THAT HYPOTHESIS A MACROPROPOSITION
OR IS THAT HYPOTHESIS A MICROPROPOSITION?
THAT HYPOTHESIS IS A
MACRO-MICRO-PROPOSITION!
SO, THE BOTTOM OF
COLEMAN’S BOAT IS ALSO ITS
ROOF
DUNCAN’S RELATION BETWEEN
EDUCATION AND INCOME
IS NOT ONLY AN INDIVIDUAL RELATION
IT IS ALSO A MACRO PROPERTY:
IT REFERS TO THE USA IN 1962
AND IT IS A VARIABLE SOCIETAL PROPERTY:
IT CAN BE COMPUTED FOR
OTHER PLACES AND TIMES
ONE WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO
MICRO PROPERTIES IN A MACRO PROPERTY
INDIVIDUAL
EDUCATION
USA 1962
INDIVIDUAL
INCOME
USA 1962
INDIVIDUAL
EDUCATION
USA 1973
INDIVIDUAL
INCOME
USA 1973
INDIVIDUAL
EDUCATION
NETHERLANDS
1993
INDIVIDUAL
INCOME
NETHERLANDS
1993
INDIVIDUAL
EDUCATION
NETHERLANDS
2003
INDIVIDUAL
INCOME
NETHERLANDS
2003
IF A SOCIETY’S INCOME DISTRIBUTION
DOES NOT CHANGE
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE INCOME
OF ALL INDIVIDUALS OR ALL
HOUSEHOLDS DOES NOT CHANGE
THAT IS WHY MOBILITY QUESTIONS
ARE GOOD FOLLOW-UPS TO
DISPARITY QUESTIONS
ANOTHER WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO
MICRO PROPERTIES INTO A MACRO PROPERTY
INFLOW AND
OUTFLOW
PERCENTAGES
OCCUPATION
FATHER
OCCUPATION
SON
ANOTHER WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO
MICRO PROPERTIES INTO A MACRO PROPERTY
ODDS RATIOS
FOR UNEQUAL
COMPETITIVE
OUTCOMES
OCCUPATION
FATHER
OCCUPATION
SON
ANOTHER WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO
MICRO PROPERTIES INTO A MACRO PROPERTY
INFLOW AND
OUTFLOW
PERCENTAGES
OCCUPATION
FATHER
ODDS RATIOS
FOR UNEQUAL
COMPETITIVE
OUTCOMES
OCCUPATION
SON
A RAFT WITH TWO MASTS AND TWO SAILS TO
REPRESENT THE SHIFT FROM THE FIRST TO THE
THIRD GENERATION OF MOBILITY STUDIES
THE SAILS TAKE THE RAFT IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS
AND MAKE FOR SEPARATE MACROQUESTIONS
COLEMAN ABOUT RELATIVE MOBILITY QUESTIONS:
ONE SHOULD NOT ELIMINATE QUESTIONS ABOUT STRUCTURES
HOWEVER, LOGLINEAR AND REGRESSION MODELS
ARE CAPABLE OF MODELLING STRUCTURAL DIFFERENCES
LOGLINEAR MODELS YIELD SHIFT COEFFICIENTS
LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS YIELD INTERCEPTS
AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE TO ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT
THE RELATION BETWEEN SHIFT AND DISTANCE AND
THE RELATION BETWEEN INTERCEPT AND SLOPE
MOVING FROM A LOWER-LAYER
HYPOTHESIS TO A HIGHER-LAYER
HYPOTHESIS
AMOUNTS TO RE-INTERPRETING AN
INHERENT PROPERTY AS
A RELATIONAL PROPERTY
Popper, ‘Aim of science’, 1957, page 29
POPPER’S RELATIONAL PROPERTIES
COMPRISE WHAT IS KNOWN IN
SOCIOLOGY AS CONTEXTUAL
PROPERTIES
SMITH INTERPRETED MARKETS NOT
SIMPLY AS A MACRO - PHENOMENON
BUT ALSO AS A RELATIONAL PROPERTY
OF AN INDIVIDUAL
HOW TO GO BEYOND THE IDEA
OF CONTEXTUAL PROPERTIES
OF INDIVIDUALS
AND MAKE MULTI - LAYERED
THEORIES?
DISTINGUISH TYPES OF
CONTEXTUAL PROPERTIES
AND SPELL OUT A THEORY
COMPRISING HIGHER- AND
LOWER-LAYER HYPOTHESES
AND AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS
WHICH AXIOMS AND
AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS DOES
THE RAT PARADIGM HAVE?
BECKER, A TREATISE ON THE FAMILY 1981, page viii
‘THIS VOLUME USES
THE ASSUMPTIONS OF MAXIMIZING BEHAVIOR,
STABLE PREFERENCES,
AND EQUILIBRIUM
IN IMPLICIT OR EXPLICIT MARKETS’
BECKER HERE STATES THE AXIOM
THAT INDIVIDUALS ARE RATIONAL
AND THE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTION THAT
THEY ACT ON MARKETS
HOWEVER, NOT ONLY MARKETS
COORDINATE INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR
AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ARE NOT
ANCILLARY ASSUMPTIONS
RATIONAL CHOICE SOCIOLOGY IS A
MISNOMER
THE PROPER NAME IS MARKET SOCIOLOGY
THIS IS NOW RECOGNIZED IN THE
SOCIOLOGY OF RELIGION
ALBERT MARKTSOZIOLOGIE UND
ENTSCHEIDUNGSLOGIK 1967
Iannaccone, ‘Voodoo economics?’, 1995, page 76:
‘… a[n] … application of rational choice [theory] the religious market alternative to secularization
theory - …’
HOW TO EXPAND MARKET SOCIOLOGY?
RAT IS IN NEED OF A THEORY OF SOCIETY
WHICH GOES BEYOND THE AUXILIARY
ASSUMPTION THAT MARKETS ARE THE ONLY
INSTITUTION COORDINATING HUMAN ACTION
HEILBRONER AND THE PRODUCTION OF INDIVIDUAL GOODS:
* MARKETS
HUNGER AVERSION
* HIERARCHIES
PAIN AVERSION
* COMMUNITIES
DERISION AVERSION
FREE AFTER HEILBRONER, THE WORLDLY PHILOSOPHERS, 1953
SO, APART FROM
MARKET SOCIOLOGY
THERE IS
ORGANIZATIONAL SOCIOLOGY AND
CULTURAL SOCIOLOGY
THE OPPOSITION BETWEEN
RATIONAL ACTION AND
NORM-GUIDED BEHAVIOR
IS FALSE
VAN DEN DOEL AND THE PRODUCTION OF
COLLECTIVE GOODS BY SOCIETAL POLITIES:
* WISE BENEVOLENT DICTATOR
* TWO INDEPENDENT PERSONS
* A POPULATION MAKING
UNANIMOUS DECISIONS
* MAJORITY DECISIONS
VAN DEN DOEL DEMOCRACY AND WELFARE ECONOMICS 1978
STATISTICAL MODELS FROM THE NIJMEGEN
RESEARCH PROGRAM ON THE CONSEQUENCES
OF THE SHIFT FROM A HIGLY RELIGIOUS SOCIETY
TO AN ULTRA-LIBERAL SOCIETY
THE MULTI-LEVEL MODELS CONTAIN
CONTEXTUAL PROPERTIES WHICH PERTAIN TO
STATES
MARKETS
COMMUNITIES
CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS AND
THE COLEMAN BOAT
MACRO-X
MICRO-X
MACRO-Y
MICRO-Y
THE HULL OF COLEMAN’S BOAT REINFORCED
FROM QUESTIONS ABOUT BEING A CHURCH MEMBER OR NOT
TO QUESTIONS ABOUT REMAINING IN OR LEAVING CHURCH
THREE REGULARITIES TO BE EXPLAINED :
LIBERAL PROTESTANTS MOST LIKELY TO LEAVE , ORTHODOX
PROTESTANTS LEAST
OLDER PERSONS ARE LESS LIKELY TO LEAVE
THE HIGHER SOMEONE’S EDUCATION , THEY HIGHER THE
CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH
BY THE PRINCIPLE THAT
OPPORTUNITIES AND MOTIVATIONS MAKE FOR BEHAVIOUR
FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH POPULATION
1998 INSTALLMENT
LOOSING MY RELIGION (NUFFIELD REMIX)
NAN-DIRK DE GRAAF, NEED, ULTEE 2004
COMMUNITY EFFECT :
PROTESTANT SCHOOLS COUNTER
CHURCH LEAVING
CATHOLIC SCHOOLS DO NOT
MARKET EFFECT :
THE MORE NON-RELIGIOUS PERSONS
THERE ALREADY ARE IN A PROVINCE
THE MORE LIKELY IS A RELIGIOUS
PERSON LIVING IN THAT PROVINCE TO
LEAVE CHURCH
MANIPULATION OF THE INTERACTION
TERMS FOR YEAR AND DENOMINATION
SHOW THAT NOWADAYS
CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH DO NOT
DIFFER BETWEEN DENOMINATIONS
NOTE THAT WE
CIRCURVENT THE
IMPOSSIBILITY OF
STATISTICALLY
DISTINGUISHING
EFFECTS OF AGE ,
COHORT AND
PERIOD
+
+
BY BRINGING IN
SUBSTANTIVE
HYPOTHESES
IF RELIGIOUS PARENTS VOTE
FOR A LEFT-WING PARTY
THEIR CHILDREN ARE MORE
LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH
MARKET EFFECT:
IRRESPECTIVE OF A RELIGIOUS
PERSON’S EDUCATION
THE HIGHER THE AVERAGE
LEVEL OF EDUCATION IN THIS
PERSON’S PROVINCE
THE MORE LIKELY THIS
PERSON IS TO LEAVE CHURCH
THE MAIN EFFECT OF AGE DOES
NOT DISAPPEAR AFTER
INTRODUCING LEAVING HOME AND
MARRIAGE
THE MAIN EFFECT OF EDUCATION
DOES DISAPPEAR AFTER
INTRODUCING AN INTERACTION OF
LEAVING HOME AND EDUCATION
INTERACTION OF OPPORTUNITY
AND MOTIVATION :
PEOPLE BECOME NON-RELIGIOUS
WHEN THEY LEAVE HOME AND
CONTINUE THEIR EDUCATION
OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF DEATH
CAUSES AND SUICIDES
THE NETHERLANDS
1936-1973
WE PAID FOR DIAGITALIZATION OF
THE DATA
DURKHEIM FOUND FOR
GERMAN STATES AT
THE END OF THE 19TH CENTURY
PROTESTANTS ARE MORE LIKELY
TO DIE OF SUICIDE THAN
CATHOLICS
WE POSTULATED A MARKET EFFECT :
IF THE PERCENT OF NON - RELIGIOUS
PERSONS IN A MUNICIPALITY IS HIGHER THE
SUICIDE RATE FOR EVERY RELIGION IS
HIGHER
AND WE POSTULATED A COMMUNITY
EFFECT :
IF THE PERCENT OF CATHOLICS IN A
MUNICIPALITY IS HIGHER ONLY THE SUICIDE
RATES FOR CATHOLICS ARE LOWER
VAN TUBERGEN,
TE GROTENHUIS,
ULTEE
AJS 2005
FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH POPULATION
2003 INSTALLMENT
2006 PUBLICATION IN DUTCH OF
LUBBERS, JASPERS, ULTEE
FORTHCOMING IN ENGLISH
Gay marriage should be abolished
(1) Completely disagree
(2) Largely disagree
(3) Don’t agree or disagree
(
4) Largely agree
%
49.7
65.4
15.7
18.7
18.7
3.8
15.9
(5) Completely agree
12.1
Source: Netherlands Family Survey 2003
ANSWERS TO AN EXTREME 2003 SURVEY ITEM
OLDER ITEMS DID NOT DIFFERENTIATE ANYMORE
MEN MUCH MORE THAN WOMEN IN FAVOR OF
ABOLISHING GAY MARRIAGE
EDUCATION MOVES PEOPLE FROM NEUTRALITY
TOWARDS MAINTAINANCE
NO EFFECT OF MOTHER’S EDUCATION AND RELIGION
AFTER BRINGING IN MOTHER’S ATTITUDE TOWARDS
HOMOSEXUALITY WHEN PERSON WAS YOUNG
INDIVIDUAL RELIGION HAS LIMITED EFFECT WHEN
MEASURED AS MEMBERSHIP
MORE SO IF MEASURED AS CHURCH ATTENDANCE
CHURCH ATTENDANCE MAKES PEOPLE MOVE FROM
NEUTRALITY TOWARDS ABOLITION
LIVING IN A PROTESTANT AREA MAKES PEOPLE MORE
IN FAVOR OF ABOLISHING GAY MARRIAGE
Importance of determinants of attitude towards the abolition of gay
marriage assessed by removing one characteristic from final model
Characteristic removed
Educational level mother
Church membership/attendance mother
Attitude mother towards homosexuality
Highest educational level completed
Field of study
Church membership
Religious elementary school
% Protestants living in COROP area
% Catholics living in COROP area
Co-habitation status
Sex
Age
Origin
Church attendance
χ2 loss
0.14
1.96
50.41**
11.25**
3.55
19.25*
2.28
6.38*
2.86
7.65
11.98**
1.83
9.84*
53.18**
Model χ2
~ = p<0.10; * = p<0.05; ** = p<0.01
368.72
Source: Netherlands Family Survey 2003.
OPINIONS ABOUT ABORTION IN
WESTERN EUROPE 1981-2000
14 COUNTRIES FROM THE
EUROPEAN VALUES SURVEY
FORTHCOMING BY
NEED, LEVELS, ULTEE
APART FROM INDIVIDUAL CHARACTERISTICS LIKE
GENDER
AGE
DENOMINATION
EDUCATION
CHURCH ATTENDANCE
CONTEXTUAL CHARACTERISTICS LIKE
PERCENT OF NON-RELIGIOUS IN AREA
PERCENT OF CATHOLICS IN AREA
AVERAGE EDUCATION IN AREA
STRICTNESS OF NATIONAL ABORTION LAW
NUMBER OF ABORTIONS IN COUNTRY AS PERCENT OF
NUMBER OF BIRTHS
ASSUMED CAUSAL ORDER
PERCENT OF CATHOLICS
STRICTNESS ABORTION LAW
NUMBER OF ABORTIONS
CATHOLICS MORE OPPOSED
AGAINST ABORTION
PROTESTANTS NOT
CHURCH ATTENDANCE MAKES
FOR OPPOSITION
EDUCATION LOWERS
OPPOSITION
THE STRICTNESS OF THE ABORTION LAW MAKES
FOR MORE INDIVIDUAL OPPOSITION
THIS HIERARCHY EFFECT IS INDIRECT
BY WAY OF THE ABORTION RATIO
PERCENT OF NON - BELIEVERS MAKES FOR LESS
OPPOSITION
PERCENT OF CATHOLICS HAS NO INFLUENCE
AVERAGE EDUCATION MAKES FOR LESS
OPPOSITION
IMPROVING AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT MACRO OUTCOMES
MARKETS:
OPTIMAL EQUILIBRIA OR COMPETITIVE EXCESSES?
HIERARCHIES:
CRIME-FREE STREETS OR BUREAUCRATIC
PATCHWORK?
COMMUNITIES:
SHARED COSINESS OR PRESTIGIOUS LEADERS WITH
SECRETE VICES?
DID I ‘SINK THE COLEMAN’?
COLEMAN’S BOAT WAS ALREADY MAKING
WATER
BUT DID I PRESENT AN AIRWORTHY PLANE?
TO BE POSTED ON MY WEBSITE
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