Health, Nutrition and the U.S.
Food Chain: Trends and New
Findings
OECD Food Chain Analysis Network
Mobilizing the Food Chain for Health
Oct 25-26, 2012
Jay Variyam, Branch Chief
Food Economics Division
Economic Research Service
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author
and do not represent the views of the ERS or the USDA
Consumers spend 10% on food
14.0
Share of Personal Disposable Income
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
Share of Personal
Disposable Income
4.0
2.0
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
0.0
Where that 10% went…
Innovation: Convenience
Variety and choice
Number of items carried by U.S. supermarkets
Consumers want …
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Taste
Low price
Convenience
Safety
Quality
Nutrition
Variety
Eco/Green
Overarching trends
I.
Changing channels of food
distribution
II.
Differentiation
III. New products to meet changing
consumer demand
I. Nontraditional Retailers Entry
into the Retail Food Market
I. Expenditure Shares for Nontraditional
Retailers Continue to Rise
Source: ERS Calculations using Nielsen Homescan Data
Wal-Mart Supercenters
20
11
20
09
20
07
20
03
20
05
20
01
19
99
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
19
97
Number of U.S. Stores
I. Wal-Mart Supercenters
II. Retail differentiation
Retailers are also differentiating with expanded product
offerings
• Private label
• Prepared foods
• Fuel
• Organic foods
Organic Food Sales
III. Meeting consumer demand
New product introductions of consumer packaged goods, 1992 to
2010
30,000
25,000
Number
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Food and beverage
Nonfood
III. Meeting consumer demand
New product introductions
1200
1000
Number
800
Low or no carb
600
Low or no trans fat
400
200
0
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Recent Findings
• Affordability of Healthy Foods
• Access to Healthy Foods
• Healthfulness of Purchases and
Consumption
• Response to Information/Labeling
New Results: Affordability
• Are healthy foods more expensive?
– Yes, if measured on per calorie basis
– No, if measured on the basis of edible weight
or average portion size
– In terms of the cost of meeting dietary
recommendations, it is less expensive to meet
the grains, dairy, and fruits recommendations
than the vegetables or protein grp recommen.
– http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/eibeconomic-information-bulletin/eib96.aspx
Affordability
• Can low-income Americans afford meeting
fruit and vegetables guidelines?
– Stewart et al., Jrl of Nutrition Education &
Behavior, 2012 Best Article
– Costs per cup-equivalent of fruits and
vegetables, including whole and cut fruit, fruit
juice, dark green vegetables, orange
vegetables, legumes, and others
Affordability
• In 2008, a variety of fruits and vegetables
was available for an average cost of $0.40
to $0.50 per cup-equivalent
• Low-income Americans facing national
average prices can satisfy fruit and
vegetable guidelines with a standard
budget
Access
• Hypothesized relationship between access
to affordable & nutritious food and diet
quality and obesity
• ERS “Food Deserts” project, 2009
• Major update based on new data to be
released: Report in November and on-line
map in December
Access: 2010 Data
• 27.9 million (9.7%) people live in lowincome areas more than 1 mile from a
supermarket (2010)
• 2.1 million (1.8%) households live more
than 1 mile from store and do not have a
vehicle
• 35.6 million (11.6%) low-income
individuals live more than 1 mile from store
Access
• Multiple measures:
– Area based
– Individual-level
– Self-reported access
– Time traveling to grocery store
• 19.5 minutes in low-income/low access areas vs.
15.5 minutes in low-income/high access areas
(ERS analysis of American Time Use Survey)
Healthfulness of
Consumption
Healthfulness of Purchases
• What is the extent to which U.S.
consumers are adhering to the Dietary
Guidelines for Americans (DGA) with their
food-at-home (FAH) purchases?
– Nielsen Homescan panel data
– 1998-2006
– Healthfulness measured based on USDA’s
2005 Healthy Eating Index
Healthfulness of Purchases
• Consumers purchase too few fruits, vegetables, and
whole grains and too many refined grains, fats, and
added sugars (compared to DGA)
• Healthfulness of the average food shopping basket did
not improve between 1998 and 2006
– Households shifted from refined grains toward whole
grains, but allocate less of their food budgets to fruits
and vegetables and more toward processed and
packaged foods
Information/Labeling
• The 2005 Dietary Guidelines for
Americans (DGA) recommended that half
of all grains consumed be whole grains
• A comparison of grocery store bread
purchases before and after the release of
the 2005 DGA
• Quantity of whole-grain bread purchased
rose 70 percent, while refined-grain bread
purchases fell 13 percent
Information/Labeling
• Whole-grain prices fell relative to price of
refined-grain bread
• After accounting for price changes and
other factors, the 2005 Guidelines appear
to have encouraged Americans to reduce
purchases of refined-grain breads by 3
percent and increase purchases of whole
grain bread by 14 percent
Information/Labeling
• Transfat labeling enforced in 2006
• How did it affect reformulation?
• ERS examined new product introductions
data 2005-2010
– Most new food products do not contain trans
fats
– Transfat content has been falling across all
product groups
Transfats
Trans fat levels in new products have dropped
dramatically over the last 5 years
0.60
Bakery Products
0.50
0.40
Prepared meals
Average trans fat
content, grmas per 0.30
serving
Desserts
0.20
0.10
Processed meat/fish/eggs
0.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Snacks
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service calculations using Mintel Global New Products
Database.
Transfats
• New products without trans fats are likely
to be lower in calories, sodium, and
saturated fats than those containing trans
fats. This suggests that food companies
generally are not substituting these less
healthy nutrients for trans fats when
reformulating products to contain no trans
fats
Assessing Food Access and
Food Environment : Tools
• Food Desert Locator:
• http://www.ers.usda.gov/dataproducts/food-desert-locator.aspx
• Food Environment Atlas:
• http://www.ers.usda.gov/dataproducts/food-environment-atlas.aspx