The Enterprise Imperative Improving local capacity and delivering modern energy by strengthening the enterprise-customer connection Prepared for: USAID December 2008 Philip LaRocco Jennye Greene The Solar Electric Light Co. Click below for 3 minute video We can all agree that more SELCOs are needed in order to address the energy needs of the under-served. Toyola-Stoves-Ghana VEV-Wind-Senegal Lambark-LPG-Ghana LEDCO-Hydro-Nepal SME-RE-Biogas-Cambodia Two Decades of Successful Enterprise Experience … 100s of Examples SEUL-Solar-Uganda Red CeramicsNatural Gas-Bolivia MOP-Fruit Drying-Uganda La Esperanza Where: La Esperanza, Intibuca, Honduras What: A 3-stage, 13.5 MW run-of-river hydroelectric project Stage 1: 485 kW Stage 2: 950 kW Stage 3: 13.5 MW Carbon: One of the first small-scale carbon monetizations Impacts: Community development, job creation, clean energy, tree planting Presentation Outline 1. The general landscape 2. The case for energy enterprises 3. Transferring knowledge and experience 4. Building a framework 1. The landscape 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework 2.4 billion people cook with traditional fuels 1.6 billion people do not have electricity 1. The landscape 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework Business-As-Usual $26 trillion in global energy spending by 2030 and there will still be… – 1.4B w/out electricity – 2.6B using traditional cooking fuels 9 8 7 6 People 5 (Billions) 4 3 2 1 0 2008 2030 No Electricity Traditional Cooking Total Population Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2008 ; UN Population Projections, 2006 1. The Lay of landscape the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework Limits of Business-as-Usual 1. Geography 2. Cost per grid connection 3. Population growth In a conventional utility model (RSA), the grid extension became uneconomic around R3,000 (yr 2000R)/connection. At R5,000/connection, market penetration stops. This left 20-25% of the market unmet. Source: www.eskom.co.za Limits of Business-as-usual Limits of Business-as-Usual Back-of-the-envelope calculations • Over five years, the 1.6B people without electricity and the 2.4B people without modern cooking will spend over $250B on fuel (mostly kerosene and woodfuels) • For ~$150B, a solar home system and modern cook stove could be given to every household that doesn’t have them. • Over five years, the fuel savings from switching would be ~$100B for lighting and ~$50B for cooking 1. The Lay of landscape the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework A little perspective Trillions of USD in spending 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 26 Trillion (IEA estimate of global spending through 2030) 150 Billion (could purchase modern energy for every current unserved HH) 1. The Lay landscape of the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework Why focus on enterprises? BUSINESS-AS-USUAL PROBLEMS: THE ENTERPRISE ADVANTAGE: • Classic utility model not serving all unmet demand … trapped in one size fits all model • Ability to efficiently address unmet demand … multiple products and services • Grappling with macro issues of growing energy insecurity … little or no incentive toward human development • Successful enterprise-customer experimentation since early 90s … built on quality of life and productive livelihood growth • Dissatisfaction with one-size-fits-all or one-gap-needs-filling ODA approaches • Opportunity for USAID to leverage scarce resources and take the lead in a model that recognizes and fills multiple gaps • Need to deal with climate change adaptation and mitigation overwhelms energy access issues • Economic, social and environmental benefits in new service delivery • The limits of central station, pipe and wires energy are understood • The untapped potential of local entrepreneurship has been grossly underutilized 1. The landscape 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework Business-as-not-too-unusual There are NO good reasons why so many people are un-served. The key building blocks are available... Demand/purchasing power Appropriate technology Resources for capacity building Delivery expertise …under the right circumstances. 1. The Lay of landscape the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework Communicating success This body of work asks just two questions: • What can be learned from these small and growing energy enterprises? • How do we convert what we know into a practical tool and set of guidelines for development practitioners? 1. The Lay of landscape the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework Methodology of this study 1. Assemble a cross-section of real-world examples 2. From examples, identify criteria linked with success and failure, replicability and growth 3. Formulate a typology of models (both business and donor models) 4. Develop a set of implementation tools for USAID staff to evaluate and improve existing programs and propose new ones. 1. The Lay of landscape the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework A wide range of technologies and organizational structures • Zara Solar – (Tanzania; private) • Barefoot College – (India; private, donor) • SELCO – (India; private) • Soluz – (Dominican Republic, Honduras; private) • RAPS – (South Africa; ) • Toyola – (Ghana; private) • Multi-functional Platform – (Mali, govt’, donor) • SME-RE – (Cambodia; private) • Stiftung Solarenergie – (Ethiopia; donor) … And many, many others. 1. The Lay of landscape the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework Expertise drawn from many varied sources • • • • • • • • • • • Eric Usher, UNEP Ellen Morris, Arc Finance UNDP, MFP Bunker Roy, Barefoot College Christine Eibs Singer, E+Co Dan Shepherd, IADB-MIF Stacy Swann, IFC Harish Hande, Selco-India Harald Schutzeichel, Stiftung Solarenergie Suraj Wahab O, Toyola Mohamed and Mona Parpia, Zara Solar …And many, many more 1. The Lay of landscape the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework Frameworks Being Used 1. The “Balanced Implementation Model:” It is the combination of and balance among three variables… • • • Policy & enabling environments The availability of suitable technology Capable “enterprise-like” delivery … that account for an initiative’s success. 2. The “Enterprise-Customer Connection:” The most critical interaction in the value chain is between the “enterprise” (delivering party) and the customer (receiving party). 1. The Lay of landscape the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework Our Objective: Balanced implementation Potential Impact An Out-ofBalance Initiative… Too much policy push… Policy Technology Too little companion technology push … Way too little implementation push … Enterprise 1. The Lay of landscape the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework Balanced implementation strives for proportionate and appropriate emphasis on the key variables Policy Technology Enterprise 1. The Lay of landscape the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework The balanced implementation model Policy Technology Impact Enterprise 1. The Lay of landscape the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework Case Study: FENERCA • FENERCA (2000-05) was a USAID program that sought to create a pipeline of RE business proposals by strengthening the capacity of entrepreneurs, local financial institutions, NGOs and governments. • USAID was the primary source of programmatic funds ($5.3 M) • FENERCA was largely successful in following a balanced implementation approach. FENERCA Highlights Enterprise: • 162 enterprises received development services • 62 bankable proposals created • 21 businesses operational by 2005 (+8 awaiting fund disbursement) • >$36 M in financing mobilized FENERCA Highlights Technology: • 1,850 people trained in subjects related to clean technology (entrepreneurs, government officials, NGO decisionmakers, and staff of financial institutions) • Of the 21 enterprises created, – 13 solar – 5 small hydro – 3 biomass FENERCA Highlights Policy: • Policy document produced related to policy opportunities for RE in CA • 3 meetings held with regional energy authorities • Assistance given to Honduran Congress in drafting legislation providing incentives for RE development The Enterprise-Customer connection E (Enterprise) C (Customer) 1. The Lay of landscape the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework The Enterprise-Customer connection Entrepreneur (e) Demand (d) Technology (t) Knowledge (k) Services (Es) Finance (Ef) E (Enterprise) C (Customer) Services (Cs) Finance (Cf) 1. The Lay of landscape the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework Policy & Enabling Environment Entrepreneur (e) Demand (d) Technology (t) Knowledge (k) Services (Es) E (Enterprise) C (Customer) Finance (Ef) Financial Services (Cs) Finance (Cf) Social Environmental 1. The Lay of landscape the land 2. The case for enterprise 3. Transferring knowledge 4. A Framework Case Study: Toyola Energy Ltd. • Manufacture and distribution of improved charcoal cookstoves in Ghana • Started business in 2006 • Stoves exhibit ~40% fuel efficiency and retail for ~$10. • Projected sales of 300,000 over the next 5 years Toyola Energy Ltd. • Entrepreneurs: – Suraj and Ernest • Technology: – ICS is mature and appropriate technology • Services: – Artisan training provided by EWW – Business development provided buy E+Co • Financing: – E+Co has made 2 loans and an advance on future carbon revenues • Customer demand: – Charcoal is expensive, stoves have short payback period • Knowledge of product: – EWW provided extensive advertising • Services: – Risk-free trials of stoves – Refurbishing possible • Financing: – Relatively low cost – Some micro-credit available Toyola Energy Ltd. - Outcomes • Financial – – Profitable and fast-growing business, able to meet its loan obligations – Potential carbon revenues are significant • Social – Employment opportunities for 150+ people – Reduced indoor air pollution – Cost savings for households and chop bars • Environmental – Less pressure on forest resources – Reduced GHG emissions USAID Toyola Energy Ltd. Balance Sheet Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Assets 73,833 63,829 57,172 63,961 62,693 Liabilities 62,205 47,699 32,892 18,675 5,553 Equity 11,628 16,130 26,148 45,286 57,139 Domestic units 5,300 8,480 11,024 14,331 18,630 Price Per Unit(US$) 6 6 6 6 6 Commercial Units 2,583 3,875 5,425 7,052 8,462 Price Per Unit 20 20 20 20 20 Total Revenue 80,812 124,13 2 169,12 1 219,85 8 271,71 1 Cost of Sales 44,314 68,061 92,741 120,56 4 148,97 6 Gross Profit 36,498 56,072 76,380 99,294 122,73 6 Gross Profit % 45.2% 45.2% 45.2% 45.2% 45.2% Operating Expenses 30,800 33,880 47,432 66,405 92,967 EBITDA 5,698 22,192 28,948 32,890 29,769 Interest E+Co 1 2,212 3,650 2,262 1,397 239 EDS Rec Fees 644 1,288 1,288 1,288 644 Depreciation 11,533 11,533 11,533 2,800 2,800 Taxes 0 0 0 7,103 7,599 Net Income -8,692 3,861 9,359 18,498 11,530 Net Cash Flow 4,225 149 6,572 19,587 25,602 IRR 1 10% Income Statement Balance sheet projections for first loan, Nov. 2006 Balance sheet projections for second loan, Dec. 2008 Toyola Energy Ltd. Projections Nov-07 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Assets 109,924 219,258 201,952 184,677 177,647 179,891 Liabilities 68,575 147,274 109,359 69,628 37,294 12,445 Equity 41,349 71,984 92,593 115,049 140,354 167,446 15,732 42,800 47,080 51,788 62,146 74,575 #Units - Domestic Stoves Price Per Unit $8.00 $8.00 $9.60 $11.52 $13.82 $16.59 #Units - Commercial Stoves 1,107 2,730 4,368 5,242 7,862 9,435 Price Per Unit $ 25 $ 25 $ 30 $ 36 $ 43 $ 52 153,531 410,650 510,132 601,242 803,073 1,011,872 92,718 290,160 368,880 423,048 575,419 704,543 60,813 120,490 141,252 178,194 227,654 307,329 Total Revenue Cost of Sales Gross Profit Gross Profit % 39.61% Operating Expenses 29.34% 27.69% 29.64% 28.35% 30.37% 36,283 63,786 85,184 122,478 171,727 251,834 24,530 56,704 56,069 55,716 55,927 55,495 Interest 2,857 12,956 10,724 7,910 4,322 1,505 Depreciation 12,300 17,866 17,866 17,866 17,866 17,866 Taxes EBITDA 2,624 7,247 6,870 7,485 8,435 9,031 Net Income 6,749 18,635 20,609 22,456 25,305 27,093 Net Cash Flow (68,532) 55,522 1,710 (3,885) (3,471) (4,444) IRR 8.31% Wikispace For more information, progress updates, or in order to leave your feedback, please visit our wikispace entitled EnergyAccess. We want to hear about your examples and insights. Email philip.larocco@eandco.net or jennye@gmail.com for instructions. Have a nice day and Thank you for your attention! Goals 1. Create improved, cost-effective service delivery of modern energy. 2. Leverage the largely untapped resource of small and growing businesses in order to do so. 3. Promote activities that can achieve scale and are replicable. Investors Managed Accounts Borrowings – People + Planet Notes Capital Debt Equity Donations – Grants & Energy Cures Services Carbon Revenues Operations End-user Finance SME Entrepreneurs & MFIs Principal, Interest & Dividends Development Benefits Environmental Benefits Investors Managed Accounts Borrowings – People + Planet Notes Donations – Grants & Energy Cures $1.07 $0.23 $1.00 $0.20 Capital Debt Equity $0.10 Services 1/6th 12%, 9 y 2/3rds 10%, 7 y Carbon Revenues Operations 1/6th 11%, 5 y End-user Finance SME Entrepreneurs & MFIs Principal, Interest & Dividends Development Benefits Environmental Benefits 10.7% Provision for financial losses 9.2% of P + I + D … 10.7% becomes 8.7% On $1.00 …equals 7.3% on $1.07 9.00% 7.3% base case Borrow $1.07 Invest $1.00 Grants + Carbon = $0.23 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% Return 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 100% 94.25% 88.50% 82.75% 77% % of full cost borrowed Sensitivity of Return to Amount Borrowed of each $1.30 Required 10.7% hurdle rate, 9.2% losses, 1.30 formula Schedule and Deliverables Week Tasks Deliverables Dec. (wk. 1) Finish case studies; Submit preliminary presentation, outline Dec. (wk. 2) Start Interviews Continue interviews Dec (wk. 3) Evaluate progress Dec. (wk. 4) Consolidate research Jan. (wk. 1) Begin writing Jan. (wk. 2) Continue writing Jan. (wk. 3) Format Submit text for peer review Jan. (wk. 4) Edit, revise Deliver final materials (texts, case studies, presentations, multimedia) on flash drives