51 Inventory Concepts INVENTORY IS A LARGE AND COSTLY INVESTMENT “Every management mistake ends up in inventory.” Michael C. Bergerac Former Chief Executive Revlon, Inc. What are Inventories? •Finished product held for sale •Goods in warehouses •Work in process •Goods in transit •Any owned or financially controlled raw material, work in process, and/or finished good or service held in anticipation of a sale but not yet sold CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. Inventory Management Objectives Good inventory management is a careful balancing act between stock availability and the cost of holding inventory. Customer Service, i.e., Stock Availability Inventory Holding costs (inventory Carrying Costs) •Service objectives -Setting stocking levels so that there is only a specified probability of running out of stock •Cost objectives -Balancing conflicting costs to find the most economical replenishment quantities and timing CR (2004) Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 3 Inventory Management Answers Four Important Questions How to order? When to order? What to order? How much to order? 42 Why Hold Inventory? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. It enables the firm to achieve economies of scale It balances supply and demand It enables specialization in manufacturing It provides protection from uncertainties in demand and order cycle It acts as a buffer between critical interfaces within the channel of distribution Economies of Scale Inventory is required if an organization is to realize economies of scale in purchasing, transportation, or manufacturing. Per unit price reductions! The cost of maintaining this inventory must be “traded off” against the production savings realized. Balancing Supply and Demand Seasonal supply or demand may make it necessary for a firm to hold inventory. (finished goods) Demand for a product may be relatively stable throughout the year, but raw materials may be available only at certain times during the year. Ex: Canned fruits and vegetables Specialization Inventory makes it possible for each of a firm’s plants to specialize in the products that it manufactures. The finished products can be shipped to field warehouses where they are mixed to fill customer orders. Whirlpool Co.- cost savings through specializing manufacturing by plant location and the consolidation of warehouse operations Focused Factories-specialization by facility Protection From Uncertainties Inventory is held as protection from uncertainties; that is, to prevent a stock out in the case of variability in demand or variability in the replenishment cycle. Inventory planning is critical to successful manufacturing operations to protect from uncertainties. Inventory As A Buffer Inventory is held throughout the supply chain to act as a buffer for the following critical interfaces: – – – – – – * supplier-procurement * procurement-production * production-marketing * marketing-distribution * distribution-intermediary * intermediary-customer/user TYPES OF INVENTORIES Inventories can be classified based on the reasons for which they are accumulated. In-transit inventories Speculative stock Seasonal stock Dead stock Cycle stock Safety or buffer stock In-transit Inventories In-transit inventories are items that are en route from one location to another For calculating inventory carrying costs,intransit inventory should be considered as inventory at the place of shipment origin since the items are not available for use, sale ,etc. Speculative Stock Speculative stock is inventory held for reasons other than satisfying current demand Materials may be purchased in volumes larger than necessary: to receive quantity discounts, because of a forecasted price increase materials shortage, to protect against the possibility of a strike. Seasonal Stock Seasonal stock is a form of speculative stock that involves the accumulation of inventory before a seasonal period begins This often occurs with agricultural products and seasonal items. Ex: back-to-school Dead Stock Dead stock refers to items for which no demand has been registered for some specified period of time. Dead stock might be obsolete throughout a company or only at one stock keeping (SKU) location. J.C. Whitney Company-sells auto parts that are no longer produced Transshipment of dead stock-Asia markets Cycle Stock Cycle stock is inventory that results from replenishment of inventory sold or used in production. It is required in order to meet demand under conditions of certainty; that is, when the firm can predict demand and replenishment times (lead times). Orders are scheduled to arrive just as the last unit is sold-no extra inventory beyond the cycle stock is required. Cycle Stock Lot or batch size: The quantity that a stage of supply chain either produces or purchases at a given time Q: quantity in a lot or batch size Cycle stock: Q / 2 Safety or Buffer Stock Safety or buffer stock is held in excess of cycle stock because of uncertainty in demand or lead time. Average inventory at a stock keeping location that experiences demand or lead time variability = half the order quantity (cycle stock)+ the safety stock 44 The Effect of Reorder Quantity on Average Inventory Investment with Constant Demand and Lead Time Demand:20 units A. Orderquantity of 400 units Inventory Order arrival 400 Order placed Order arrival Order placed Average cycle inventory 200 0 Days 10 20 30 40 50 60 4 5 The Effect of Reorder Quantity on Average Inventory Investment with Constant Demand and Lead Time Demand:20 units B. Order quantity of 200 units Inventory Order arrival Order placed 200 Average c cle inventory y 100 0 Days 10 20 30 40 50 60 4 6 The Effect of Reorder Quantity on Average Inventory Investment with Constant Demand and Lead Time Demand:20 units Inventory C. Order quantity of 600 units 600 Order arrival Average cycle inventory Order placed 300 0 Days 10 20 30 40 50 60 11 4 Average Inventory Investment Under Conditions of Uncertainty Demand:2025 units A. With variable demand Inventory 200 Average cycle inventory 100 {{ Ave ra ge inve ntory (150) S afety s tock (50) 8 10 20 30 Days 40 12 4 Average Inventory Investment Under Conditions of Uncertainty If orders arrive 2 days late B. With variable lead time Inventory 200 Average cycle inventory 100 {{ Ave ra ge inve ntory (140) S afety s tock (40) 10 12 20 30 Days 40 13 4 Average Inventory Investment Under Conditions of Uncertainty C. With variable demand and lead time Inventory 200 Average cycle inventory 100 {{ Ave ra ge inve ntory (200) S afety s tock (10 0) 8 10 12 20 30 Days 40 4 14 Factors Influencing Safety Stocks Forecast error Exposure to stockout Lead time Service level requirement Impact of Demand Patterns on Inventory Management •Just-in-time (production philosophy) -Attempts to synchronize stock flows so as to just meet demand as it occurs -Minimizes the need for inventory • INDEPENDENT versus DEPENDENT DEMAND - Whether the demand for an item depends on demand for something else-dependent demand – - demand for an item depends on demand for something else • Pull strategy production and distribution are demand driven so that they are coordinated with actual customer orders, rather than forecasted demand. • Draws inventory into the stocking location • Each stocking location is considered independent • Maximizes local control of inventories •Push Strategy Products are pushed through the channel, from the production side up to the retailer. The manufacturer sets production at a level in accord with historical ordering patterns of retailers. It takes longer for a push-based supply respond to changes in demand, which can overstocking or bottlenecks and delays (the effect), unacceptable service levels and obsolescence. chain to result in bullwhip product – - Allocates production to stocking locations based on overall demand – - Encourages economies of scale in production •Push-Pull Boundary the interface between the push-based stages and the pullbased stages is known as the push-pull boundary. Dell- Inventory levels of individual components are determined by forecasting general demand, but final assembly is in response to a specific customer request. The push-pull boundary would then be at the beginning of the assembly line. Inventory Carrying Cost Inventory carrying costs are those costs associated with the amount of inventory stored. Inventory carrying costs are made up of a number of different costs. Unfortunately, many companies have never calculated inventory carrying costs, even though these costs are both real and substantial. Benchmarking the percentage of inventory carrying costs-Avon /Revlon 5 3 Normative Model of Inventory Carrying Cost Methodology Capital costs Inventory service costs Inventory Carrying Costs Inventory Investment Insurance Taxes Plant warehouses Storage space costs Public warehouses Rented warehouses Company-owned warehouses Obsolescence Inventory risk costs Damage Pilferage Relocation costs MAIN AIMS OF INVENTORY MANAGEMENT To improve cash flows To improve return on investment (ROI) Inventory and Least Total Cost Logistics Inventory carrying cost is related with the decision of logistics system design, customer service levels, number and location of DCs, transportation modes, inventory levels production schedules. Inventory turnover as a Measure Of Inventory Management Effectiveness Inventory turnover= Total cost of goods sold /Average inventory at cost Average inventory at cost = beginning inventory (cost) + ending inventory (cost) / 2 Inventory Turns (Inventory Turnover): The number of times that a company’s inventory cycles or turns over per year. It is one of the most commonly used Supply Chain Metrics showing how fast a company is selling through its inventory and efficiently managing its resources Coca-Cola Balance Sheet Inventories 2000 1999 $1,066,000,000 $1,076,000,000 Income Statement Cost of Goods Sold $6,204,000,000 5.79 times each year 5 8 The Impact of Inventory Turns on Inventory Carrying Costs Inventory Turns 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Average Inventory $750,000 375,000 250,000 187,500 150,000 125,000 107,143 93,750 83,333 75,000 68,182 62,500 57,692 53,571 50,000 Carrying Cost at 40 Percent $300,000 150,000 100,000 75,000 60,000 50,000 42,857 37,500 33,333 30,000 27,273 25,000 23,077 21,428 20,000 Carrying Cost Savings $150,000 50,000 25,000 15,000 10,000 7,143 5,357 4,167 3,333 2,727 2,273 1,923 1,649 1,428 9 5 Relationship between Inventory Turns and Inventory Carrying Costs Inventory carrying costs $300,000 $275,000 $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 $75,000 $50,000 $37,500 $25,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Inventory Turns 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 10 5 Annual Inventory Carrying Costs Compared to Inventory Turnovers Inventory carrying costs (per unit) $30.00 Variable Manufacturing Cost $100 Carrying Cost % x 30% Annual Cost to Carry in Inventory $30 Monthly Cost (1/12) $2.50 15.00 12.50 10.00 7.50 6.00 5.00 3.75 2.50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Inventory Turns 9 10 11 12 ABC Analysis-Pareto 80/20 concept is useful in distribution and inventory management. The top 20 %-A ~ wide geographic distribution through many warehouses with high levels of stock availability The next 30 %- B The remainder 50 %- C~distributed from a single, central stocking point 4 The EOQ Model 7 EOQ = 2PD CV where: P = The ordering cost (dollars per order) D = Annual demand or usage of the product (number of units) C = Annual inventory carrying cost (as a percentage of product cost or value) V = Average cost or value of one unit of inventory 8 4 Cost Trade-offs Required to Determine the Most Economic Order Quantity Total cost Annual cost (dollars) Lowest total cost (EOQ) Inventory carrying cost Ordering cost Size of order 9 4 Cost Trade-offs Required to Determine the Most Economic Order Quantity Order Quantity 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 200 300 400 Number of Orders (D/Q) 120 80 60 48 40 35 30 24 18 12 Ordering Cost PX (D/Q) $ 4,800 3,200 2,400 1,920 1,600 1,400 1,200 960 720 480 Inventory Carrying Cost 1/2 Q X C X V $ 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,500 3,750 5,000 Total Cost $ 5,300 3,950 3,400 3,170 3,100 3,150 3,200 4,460 4,470 5,480 10 Assumptions of the Simple EOQ Model 4 A continuous, constant, and known rate of demand. A constant and known replenishment cycle or lead time. A constant purchase price that is independent of the order quantity or time. A constant transporation cost that is independent of the order quantity or time. The satisfaction of all demand (no stockouts are permitted). No inventory in transit. Only one item in inventory, or at least no interaction among items. An infinite planning horizon. No limit on capital availability. Symptoms of Poor Inventory Management Increasing numbers of back orders. Increasing investment in inventory with back orders remaining constant. High customer turnover rate. Increasing number of orders canceled. Periodic lack of sufficient storage space. Wide variance in turnover of major inventory items between distribution centers. Deteriorating relationship with intermediaries, as typified by dealer cancellations and declining orders. Large quantities of obsolete items. Methods for Reducing Inventory Multiechelon inventory planning.(ABC analysis) Lead time analysis. Delivery time analysis. Elimination of low turnover and/or obsolete items. Analysis of pack size and discount structure. Examination of procedures for returned goods. Encouragement/automation of product substitution. Installation of formal reorder review systems. Measurement of fill rates by storekeeping units. Methods for Reducing Inventory (Cont’d) Analysis of customer demand characteristics. Development of a formal sales plan and emend forecast by predetermined logic. Expand view of inventory to include inventory management and information sharing at various levels in the SC. Reengineering inventory management practices to realize improvements in product flow.