The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future:
A Rotarians Guide - Hard Choices Ahead
Rotary Club of Loddon Vale:
November 29th 2010
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
Keith Tovey: President Rotary Club of Norwich
District 1080 Environment Officer
1
Increasing Occurrence of Drought
2
Increasing Occurrence of Flood
3
Climate Change:
Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
‫تغير المناخ‬
‫ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب‬1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of
Arctic Polar Region
• NASA satellite imagery
• ‫الصيف الجليد في القطب‬
‫الشمالي تغطية المنطقة‬
‫القطبيه‬
• ‫ناسا الصور الفضاءيه‬
2003
1979
•20% reduction in 24 years
•20 ٪ ‫ سنوات‬24 ‫تخفيض في‬
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
4
Is Global Warming natural
or man-made?
Natural causes
• Earth’s Orbit
• Sunspot Activity
• Volcanic Eruptions
• Etc.
Reasonable agreement up
to ~ 1960
Man-made causes do not
show particularly good
agreement in early part of
period.
BUT including both manmade and natural gives
good agreement
District 1080: Community Service & Vocations Committee
In 2010 we had one of the warmest ever January – February periods.
Some people say surely it was coldest for 30 years
But why do people not account for the record breaking high
temperatures in the tropics, Australia etc?
5th Warmest -
District 1080 Assembly: Community Service & Vocations Committee
Temperature rise in East
Anglia over last 50 years
is unequivocal
16
Mean Temperature (oC)
14
12
10
8
• Winter: October – March:
• Summer: April to September
• Compared to 1960 – in 2010,
– 13.1% less heating needed
– And 106% more cooling.
6
4
2
0
1960
summer
1970
1980
winter
1990
annual
2000
2010
Temperature Deviation deg C
0.60
0.40
0.20
below average
above average
Trend Line
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Data to end of Oct 2010
2010 is on track to be 2nd
warmest year (GLOBALLY)
NASA data suggests it has
chance of exceeding 1998
Whether we believe in Climate Change or not
Energy Security is a critical issue for the UK
140
Billion cubic metres
120
100
Import
Gap
80
60
Actual UK production
40
Actual UK demand
Projected production
Projected demand
20
0
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
On 13th Jan 2010: UK Production was only 41%:
14% from storage and 44% imports
2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020
- Non-Renewable Methods
potential
contribution to
Supply in 2020
Gas CCGT
0 - 80% (curently
35%)
costs in 2020
Available now (but is
now running out)
~2p + but recent
trends put figure
much higher
Wholesale Prices (p/kWh)
12
Langeled and Balzand Pipe Lines completed
10
8
6
UK becomes
net importer of
gas in 2004
4
2
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Price projected by Government
for Gas generation in 2020
9
9
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020
- Non-Renewable Methods
potential
contribution to
Supply in 2020
Gas CCGT
0 - 80% (curently
45%)
costs in 2020
Available now (but is now
running out)
~2p + but recent
trends put figure
much higher
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is
nuclear fusion
"Clean Coal"
Installed Capacity (MW)
nuclear fission
(long term)
0 - 20% (France new inherently safe designs completed each year after 2019.
80%) - (currently some practical development
14000
15%
and falling) needed
12000
2.5 - 3.5p
New Build ?
Projected
not available until 2040
unavailableActual
10000
at earliest
8000
Traditional Coal
2.5 - 3.5p - but will
Available
now:
Not
6000
~40%coal could
EU - ETS carbon
viable without Carbon
supply
40 - 50% by
trading will affect
4000
Capture & Sequestration
2020
this
2000
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use
methanolisation0 as a new transport fuel will not be available at
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
scale required until mid 2020s
10
10
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
11
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%
exploitation
some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but
nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on
average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At
Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and
Ipswich
12
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%
Hydro
5%
exploitation
some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
potential
Micro Hydro Scheme
operating on Siphon Principle
installed at Itteringham Mill,
Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
13
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50%
available, but much research needed
to bring down costs significantly
Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~
400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up
to 10 years to pay back in UK.
15+ p
14
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Fuels: contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
ResourceTransportPotential
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
• Biodiesel?
~ 2p
On Shore• Wind
~25% available now for commercial
Bioethanol?
exploitation
• Compressed
fromsome technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
Off Shore
Wind 25gas
- 50%
methane from waste. - research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops/
Biomass/Biogas
50% +
available, but research needed in
some areas
2.5 - 4
But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk
and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK
electricity needs.
15
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops
Wave/Tidal
Stream
100% + available, but research needed in
2.5 - 4
100% + techology limited - major development
ultimately unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
some areas
16
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops
Wave/Tidal
Stream
100% + available, but research needed in
2.5 - 4
100% + techology limited - major development
ultimately unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
some areas
17
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops
100% + available, but research needed in
2.5 - 4
some areas
Wave/Tidal
100% + techology limited - major development
Stream
ultimately unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikely
without Government intervention
Output 78 000 GWh per annum Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only
4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south
Save 40000 tonnes of CO2
4 - 8p
not
costed
18
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Cost in
2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
~ 2p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial
Resource
exploitation
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% some technical development needed ~2.5 - 3p
- research to reduce costs.
technically mature, but limited
2.5 - 3p
Hydro
5%
potential
Photovoltaic
50% available, but much research needed 10+ p
to bring down costs significantly
Energy Crops
100% + available, but research needed in
2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal
Stream
Tidal Barrages
100% + techology limited - extensive
4 - 8p
Geothermal
some areas
development unlikely before 2020
10 - 20% technology available but unlikely
without Government intervention
not
costed
unlikely for electricity generation
before 2050 if then
19
Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore
wind and biomass?.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
•then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
•unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years
UNLIKELY
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity
generation? >>>>>>
20
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of
Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the
GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that
raises.
21
Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation
nuclear
new coal
gas
new nuclear
oil
medium renewables
coal
renewables
high renewables
450
billions of kWh
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure.
We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.!
On average each person in
UK causes the emission of 9
tonnes of CO2 each year.
How many people know what
9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person
per year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he
thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
23
Raising Awareness
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.
Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance
alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume
of 1 party balloon.
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year
~ 500 balloons each year.
• Standby on electrical appliances
up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
• 上海徐汇区高第一小学
Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres)
--------- 90 kg of CO2
(5% of one hot air balloon)
HowSchool
far does
one have
to drive
in a small
family car (e.g. 1400 cc
children
at the
Al Fatah
University,
Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
Tripoli, Libya
persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
24
Electricity Consumption
kWh in period
4000
1 person
2 people
3 people
4 people
5 people
6 people
3000
2000
1000
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
No of people in household
6
Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar
• Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption
• For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances
[NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much
as 9 times.
• Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness
raising
• When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times
25
District 1080 Community Service & Vocations Committee
Average Domestic Consumption of Electricity
Consumption of Local Authority Districts in 1090,
• % of average cost of electricity bills compared to National Average
• Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities
Oxford
Slough
Bracknell Forest
Reading
Runnymede
Cherwell
Wokingham
Wycombe
Windsor and
Maidenhead
West Oxfordshire
West Berkshire
South Bucks
South Oxfordshire
kWh
4,153
4,428
4,594
4,727
4,748
4,922
4,981
5,173
%cost
93%
99%
103%
106%
106%
110%
111%
116%
Rank
99
184
225
258
261
294
305
335
5,291
5,605
5,695
5,721
5,724
118%
125%
127%
128%
128%
349
381
388
389
392
kWh
Norwich
North East
Yorkshire
Wales
Greater London
North West
East Midlands
West Midlands
UK Average
East of England
South East
South West
Scotland
District 1080
District 1090
In Oxford average household emits 2.24 tonnes of CO2
In South Oxfordshire
3.09 tonnes of CO2
3,535
3,805
4,080
4,132
4,220
4,236
4,378
4,427
4,478
4,775
4,791
4,810
4,966
4,942
5,059
District 1080 Community Service & Vocations Committee
Awareness Raising and Good Record Keeping results in significant savings
St Paul’s Church,
Tuckswood
300
Pilot Lights
turned off
during week
kWh per week
250
200
100
50
Pilot
Lights £9
per week
Deanery Synod
Tamil Service
Main Service
pilot light
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
15/11
08/11
01/11
25/10
18/10
11/10
04/10
27/09
20/09
13/09
06/09
23/08
16/08
09/08
02/08
26/07
30/08
0
Heated by 3 warm
air heaters
Pilot
lights
off
150
Weeks in 2009 ending on date shown
New Strategy: pilot lights off throughout summer and used
strategically in winter resulted in an annual saving of:
5400 kWh of gas; 1030 kg of CO2 ; and a monetary saving of £260
Or a percentage saving of 38%
27
Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project
6
kWh per day
5
Overall Solar Energy Gain
2007
2008
2009
2010
4
3
2
1
Solar Collectors installed 27th
January 2004
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Annual Solar Gain 825 kWh
Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels
at same time. Significantly reduced costs
28
Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions:
Solar Photovoltaic
Photovoltaic cells are expensive, but integration of ideas is needed.
Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to
~100kWh per square meter per year.
The New Feed In Tariff form April 1st will make things more
attractive. 41p per unit generated – an extra 3p if exported.
But those who have installed PV will get the benefit from
increased payments for electricity by those who have not.
29
Rotary is a Community
•
•
•
•
Which can spread the message
Engage with Schools
Dispel myths
Use simple messages that people understand - often monetary
values mean more
• Think about our own actions.
– Tumble drying – once a week amounts to £25 a year
• Can we car share when going to District Council?
– Four people travelled separately from North Norfolk to District 1080
Assembly. They would have emitted and extra 75kg CO2 extra
compared to travelling together at a cost of £30 extra in fuel.
• Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon
reduction in the UK.
• Energy Security will increasingly affect us in next 10 years
• Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the
planet in the developing world in the next 10 years
• Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also
help with Global Warming
• Otherwise the Young will suffer during their life times.
• We in Rotary have the resources to work with the Young to
combat the challenges facing us.
The Unbalanced Triangular Trade
0.94 billion
people
Raw materials
1.33 billion
people
Water issues are equally
important.
Each tonne of steel imported
from a developing country
consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of
1.03 billion
people water
31
Each person in Developed Countries has been
responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in
goods imported from China in just 3 years
District 1080 Community Service & Vocations Committee
Recycling Opportunities
Look out for recycling opportunities which also make money.
•Save paper & reduce landfill
•Promotes Rotary
•Raises funds for Foundation
On sale for £2-50 per pack or special offer today -- 5 packs for
£10. All profit goes to Rotary Foundation
What could Rotary Do?
• Engage with the Local Community / Schools?
– To promote awareness
– To Join together to get discounts on sustainable projects
• Share a remote reading meter around your club to help
members/local community cut their energy consumption, improve
energy security, cut carbon emissions and save money?
• Is there merit in organising a District Workshop on
Environmental Issues? e.g.
– raising awareness where the individual can save money?
– Providing a sustainable and energy secure future for our
children
– Engaging with the community to protect the environment.
And Finally
“If you do not change direction, you
may end up where you are heading.”
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher