Chapter 3 Valuing the Environment: Methods Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Why give a monetary value? WHY VALUE THE ENVIRONMENT? Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-2 Exxon Valdez… • oil tanker spilled 11 million gallons of crude oil in March 1989. Litigation on environmental damages settled with Exxon agreeing to pay $900 million over 10 years. 2004, US court awarded punitive damages in the amount of $4.5 billion. • How? • Cost of clean up + compensation for the damage caused to the local ecology Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-3 Valuing benefits and costs • Valuation techniques Damages inflicted to the environment Services provided by the environment • Assessing the magnitude of the damage in monetary terms Identifying the affected categories Estimating the physical relationship between the source of damage and the harm caused to affected categories Estimating responses by affected parties Placing a monetary value on the physical damage Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-4 Benefit valuation • Types of Values Use Value • the willingness to pay for direct use of the environmental resource Option Value • the willingness to pay for the future ability to use the environment Nonuse Value • individuals’ willingness to pay to preserve a resource that he or she will never use; intrinsic value of a resource independent of its use Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-5 Total willingness to pay (TWP) TWP = Use Value + Option Value + Nonuse Value TOTAL ECONOMIC VALUE Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-6 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-7 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-8 Valuing Benefits • Classifying Valuation Methods Revealed preference methods • Methods which are based on actual observable choices and from which actual resource values can be directly inferred Direct stated preference methods • Methods to elicit respondents’ TWP when the value is not directly observable Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-9 Valuing Benefits • Classifying Valuation Techniques Contingent Valuation Method Travel Cost Models Hedonic Property Value and Hedonic Wage Approaches Contingent Ranking and Conjoint Analysis Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-10 Economic Methods for Measuring Environmental and Resource Values Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-11 Valuing benefits and costs • Direct observation methods Methods based on actual observable choices and from which the actual resource values can be inferred When the value is not directly observable – use contingent valuation method Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-12 • Contingent valuation method It is to elicit people’s willingness-to-pay (WTP) in a hypothetical market Major concerns include: • strategic bias – respondent gives a particular answer to influence a particular outcome • information bias – respondent is forced to value attributes with which s/he has little experience • starting-point bias – the range of possibilities has an impact on the results • hypothetical bias – contrived rather than actual set of choices • and discrepancy between WTP and willingness-toaccept (WTA) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-13 Contingent valuation method • Other issues: Estimates are too large when using this method ? Problems for respondents to understand the technique Accuracy of responses and what they reflect • A NOAA panel (1993) legitimized the use of contingent valuation. • Meta-analysis utilizes a cross section of contingent valuation studies for determining non-use values and could eliminate the biases. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-14 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-15 Valuing benefits and costs – indirect hypothetical methods • Attribute-based methods Survey based technique Respondents choose between states of the world • Contingent ranking Survey based Respondents are asked to rank order hypothetical situations that differ in terms of the environmental amenity available • Methods for valuing human life… Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-16 A Sample Conjoint Analysis Survey Questionnaire Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-17 Let’s try something. Let’s try to value a market good. Take out a paper. We would like to ask you a few questions concerning your WTP for various goods and services. Please answer all questions honestly, keeping mind your household budget when choosing a response. Thank you for your participation. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-18 Question 1 • The UOB student-run coffee house is considering setting up a gourmet coffee in Khoury. Coffee would be sold from 7 am until noon. What would you be willing for an 8 oz gourmet cup of coffee from this student group? • $____ or LL ____ If you wrote 0, please state why Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-19 Question 2 • Starbucks is considering setting up a gourmet coffee in Khoury. Coffee would be sold from 7 am until noon. What would you be willing for an 8 oz gourmet cup of coffee from Starbucks? • $____ or LL ____ If you wrote 0, please state why Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-20 Question 3 • There are less than 50 hyenas left in Lebanon. Habitat necessary for the hyena is rapidly being bought for development. The Nature Conservancy is considering buying land in an effort to save this species. What would you be willing to pay in the form of an annual donation to buy enough habitat to save 50 hyenas? • $___ or LL ___ If you wrote 0, please state why Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-21 Question 4 • There are less than 20 hyenas left in Lebanon. Habitat necessary for the hyena is rapidly being bought for development. The Nature Conservancy is considering buying land in an effort to save this species. What would you be willing to pay in the form of an annual donation to buy enough habitat to save 50 hyenas? • $___ or LL ___ If you wrote 0, please state why Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-22 Start here Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-23 Economic Valuation of Nature: Context Hence, • “The issue of valuation is inseparable from the choices and decisions we have to make about ecological systems” (Costanza et al 1997) 24 Economic Valuation of Nature: What is it? An attempt to measure people’s preferences for human actions likely to affect natural systems. 25 Economic Valuation of Nature: What is it? An attempt Imperfect New and evolving techniques 26 Economic Valuation of Nature: What is it? An attempt to measure Quantitative Uses money as the measuring rod, for comparability with other values Willingness to pay (WTP) or to accept payment (WTA) 27 Economic Valuation of Nature: What is it? An attempt to measure people’s preferences People make decisions and take action Social scientists measure what people already feel 28 Economic Valuation of Nature: What is it? • An attempt to measure people’s preferences for human actions likely to affect natural systems Development, management, preservation and protection are all actions Natural systems often require collective management 29 What are we Valuing? • Use Values Fishing, hunting, recreation subsistence ecosystem services (life support) • Non-use Values Called existence, passive use, intrinsic Includes aesthetics, cultural heritage 30 Using Market Prices: Example Replacement Cost of Worldwide Ecosystem Services • Divide entire world into 16 ecosystem types • Look at 17 ecosystem functions • What does it cost to replicate these functions? Source: Costanza et al 1997 31 Example: Using Market Prices Value of Worldwide Ecosystem Services • Nutrient Cycling $17 trillion / yr • Waste treatment $2.3 trillion / yr • Water regulation & supply $2.9 trillion / yr • Gas regulation $1.3 trillion / yr • Recreation $0.8 trillion /yr • Cultural benefits $3.0 trillion / yr • TOTAL = $33 trillion /yr • Compare to gross world product of $18 trillion / yr 32 Hence… • Ecosystem services are often not bought and sold in private markets • Environmental goods and services must often be provided through collective social processes (politics!) • We use Politics to translate individual preferences into collective action 33 Valuing benefits and costs – indirect hypothetical methods • Attribute-based methods Survey based technique Respondents choose between states of the world • Contingent ranking Survey based Respondents are asked to rank order hypothetical situations that differ in terms of the environmental amenity available • Methods for valuing human life… Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-34 Indirect observable methods • Travel Cost Models infer values of recreational resources by determining how much visitors spent getting to a site and then using this information to estimate a demand curve for that site. • Hedonic property value: price of property = f(property characteristics, neighborhood, env characteristics) => WTP • Hedonic wage approach: isolates the component of wages that serve to compensate workers in risky occupations for taking on the risk WTP • Averting or defensive expenditures: when the damage caused by pollution is reduced by taking defensive actions • Contingent ranking and conjoint models are useful when project options have multiple levels of different attributes. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-35 Using Geographic Information Systems for Economic Valuation • Incorporating spatial dimensions into economic analysis, for example, in hedonic property valuation models (Example 3.4) Valuing Human Life • Controversial subject Focusing on calculating the change in the probability of death resulting from a reduction in some environmental risk and then placing a value on that change (Table 3.4) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-36 How do you value human life? 1. Estimate what an individual contributes in terms of production of goods and services to society. (example?) • Problems in this approach? 2. Consider amounts people on life insurance and safety precautions. • Problems in this approach? Hedonic Methods Approach • Uses market price of a good to estimate the value of an environmental attribute which is embedded in the price of the marketed good • Example: house (size, construction, location, environmental and aesthetic attributes, e.g. clean air) • Application property prices and air pollution/aesthetic traits and access to water supply and rubbish collection Job markets and risks to life • Limitations: requires survey, lots of data, economic theory/econometrics Relies on existence of properly functioning land/property and labour market Example: Hedonics • Idea: property values reflect a “bundle of attributes” – safe streets, good schools, nice neighbors, environmental quality, Hence, • Variations in property values can be tied to variations in environmental quality 39 Example: Hedonics • Land Values in Mat Su Valley • Berman (1987) regression equation • Value of parcels declines with distance from Anchorage • Value of parcels declines with number of close neighbors • Value of parcels increases with proximity to public open space 40 Travel Cost Method • Uses expenditures (transport costs and time) to reach a site to estimate willingness to pay • Application: recreational areas, national parks, historic/cultural sites time spent collecting fuel wood and water • Limitations: Requires survey, skills Measures only use value Travel cost method – Viewing Value of Elephants, Kenya • Survey of tourists and expenditures at national park • Results: tourists were willing to pay an extra $20-24 million per year to ensure that they saw elephants Information used to set park admission prices Revenue from parks could be far greater than revenues from ivory trade and other uses of land Example: Observed Behavior Value of Alaska Fish (Based on ISER sport fishing study, 1993 data) • Travel Cost Method (TC) People incur a travel cost to fish Those facing higher travel cost make fewer trips to a given site Use this relationship between number of trips and (travel) cost per trip to estimate net economic value of activity 43 Example: Observed Behavior Value of Alaska Fish • Example of TC Data: Mr X. lives at the fishing site, TC=0, make 6 trips Brother lives ten miles away, TC = 10, make 3 trips Cousin lives 20 miles away, TC = 20, makes zero trips 44 Example: Observed Behavior Value of Alaska Fish • Draw a graph: 45 Example: Observed Behavior Value of Alaska Fish • Assume all three people have similar preferences • Compute net economic value Mr. X.: between 30 and 60 Brother: between 0 and 15 Cousin: zero TOTAL: between 30 and 75 46 Example: Observed Behavior Value of Alaska Big Game • ADF&G used survey data to estimate TC models for hunting trips • Net values estimated by species and by resident / nonresident status • Total net value of hunted species in year 2000 = $23.5 million 47 Net Economic Value of Alaska Big Game (McCollum & Miller 1994, Colt 2000) 48 Example: Ask People Existence Value of Prince William Sound • State of Alaska, for EVOS trial • 1,043 completed in-person interviews using nationwide sample • Asked people how much they would pay to avoid another spill • Used the median value of $31 per household • $31 x 90.3 million households = $2.8 billion 49 Example: Ask People Existence Value of Prince William Sound • Construct Scenario There will be another spill in 10 years… • Include possible action Unless we implement the following plan… • Ask “Take-it-or-leave-it” questions Would you pay $15 in higher taxes to implement the plan 50 Example: Ask People Existence Value of Prince William Sound • Use different amounts ($5-$250) to elicit range of willingness to pay • Importance of the proposed payment vehicle EVOS study used general tax after considering gasoline tax, higher gasoline prices Used lump sum one-time payment 51 Problems with Contingent Valuation • Hypothetical market, not actual transaction CV estimates understate TC for same goods • Information effects • Scope effects – Does WTP increase “correctly” with scope of proposed action? Recent research suggests scope does matter as it should 52 Contingent Valuation in Practice • Tentatively endorsed by NOAA Panel • Quality depends on execution In-person interviews Discrete choice question Clear description of scenario • Used by “most federal” and “many state” agencies (Carson 1999) • Dominant methodology today 53 Economic Valuation: Should we Do it? • Problems: Whose values count? (WTP always depends on income) Reducing complex choices to one dimension ($) • A Trojan Horse? (Weeden 1987) “Economic valuation is an arcane art, full of mysterious hocus-pocus that ordinary mortals finally have to leave to economists. In any competition for favorable land allocations or other resource decisions, our economic studies will lead to studies by adversaries, data set A will be tested against data sets B and C, claims will lead to counterclaims. Meanwhile, biologists will be pushed farther into the deep background…we now complain of the tyranny of law: we will have invited the tyranny of dollars. (1987) Cash as the “great homogenizer” 54 Economic Valuation: Must we Do it? • – we do it everyday, implicitly • – we know how to do it – maybe • – The alternative to conscious valuation is a zero valuation • – valuation is one, useful, tool “We can find ways to use the sharp-edged techniques of economic valuation without cutting our jugulars” (Weeden 1987) 55 Choosing Valuation Techniques • Issues in Benefit Estimation Primary Versus Secondary Effects • Considering both primary and secondary consequences while implementing environmental projects Tangible Versus Intangible Benefits • Tangible benefits can reasonably be assigned a monetary value. • Intangible benefits cannot be assigned a monetary value. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-57 Approaches to Cost Estimation • • The Survey Approach Involves asking polluters about their control costs Finding out who actually bears the costs The Engineering Approach • Using engineering information to estimate the technologies available and the costs of purchasing and using those technologies. The Combined Approach Combining both survey and engineering approaches Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-58 The treatment of risk • Inaccuracy of scientific estimates Impossibility of determining with certainty the result of a certain policy Need for extrapolation • 2 major dimensions of risk Identifying the risk Deciding how much risk is acceptable • Risk in CBA Determining possible outcomes and their possiblity of occurrence Calculating for each policy option, the expected present value of net benefits Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-59 • Choosing the Discount Rate The appropriate rate to use will depend on the nature and expected lifetime of the project, who is doing the financing and the level of risk (See Example 3.5). • A Critical Appraisal Concerns exist on the reliability of benefit/cost analysis. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-60 Cost-Effective Analysis • A criterion for decision making other than CBA • Example, pollution control: based on expert advice; maximum acceptable level of pollution w/o harming human health • Once policy target is specified, economic analysis -> cost consequences • Second Equimarginal Principle (the CostEffectiveness Equimarginal Principle): The least-cost means of achieving an environmental target will have been achieved when the marginal costs of all possible means of achievement are equal (See example 3.6). Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-61 Impact Analysis • An impact analysis attempts to quantify the consequences of various actions. • Impact analysis places a large amount of relatively undigested information at the disposal of the policy-maker. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-62 Summary • Total Economic Value • Valuation Methods Benefit-cost Analysis • Valuation Techniques Cost effective Analysis Impact Analysis Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-63