Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll June 2010 Date Published: 4th June 2010 © 2010. Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved. Synovate Formerly Steadman The concepts and ideas submitted to you herein are the intellectual property of Synovate Ltd. They are strictly of confidential nature and are submitted to you under the understanding that they are to be considered by you in the strictest of confidence and that no use shall be made of the said concepts and ideas, including communication to any third party without Synovate’s express prior consent and/or payment of related professional services fees in full. Methodology Objective of the Survey The objective of the survey was to assess voters views on issues around the draft constitution including voting intentions and prediction of the likely outcome of the referendum. To inform and act as a planning guide for the various stakeholders involved in the referendum process and to inform public debate © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 2 Poll Methodology Dates of polling Sample Size Sampling methodology Universe Data collection methodology Sampling error © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate May 22nd – May 28th 6017 respondents Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS Recently registered voters by IIEC Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level +/-1.6 with a 95% confidence level Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 3 Sample Distribution National Population distribution (over 18 years) Province Distribution of registered voters (IIEC Register) Survey Sample distribution Nairobi 10% 10% 10% Central 14% 16% 16% Coast 9% 8% 8% Eastern 16% 16% 16% North Eastern 3% 2% 2% Nyanza 14% 14% 14% Rift Valley 24% 24% 24% Western 11% 11% 11% © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 4 Media coverage on draft constitutional matters Constitutional issues media coverage (1st to 30th May 2010) TV 14% Print 15% Radio 71% Overall : 6,746 articles across 9 print titles, 36 radio channels and 5 Tv channels (May 2010) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 6 Constitutional issues coverage on TV (1st to 30th May 2010) "Yes" Campaigns 24% General Referendum Issues 20% "No" Campaigns 13% Civic Education 11% Kadhi courts ruling 10% Voter Registration 6% Draft constitution debates 6% Draft publication issues 6% Public Opinion Polls 2% National Prayer Day 1% TJRC issues 1% Party politics 1% IIEC by-elections 0% ICC investigations 0% 0% Share of coverage 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% TV Basis; 925 items across 5 Tv channels © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 7 Familiarity with the proposed Draft “How much do you know about the draft constitution?” Nothing, 13% A lot, 10% Something, 25% A little, 51% Base: n=6017 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 9 “What are the sources of what you know about the constitution?” Radio 58% Television 43% Friends/relatives 32% Print media 31% Personally read draft 19% Religious leaders 17% Politicians 17% Internet 5% Professional associations 2% Employer 1% Base: n=6017 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 10 “How much would you say you know about the draft constitution?” – By Gender and Setting % indicating know a lot/something about the draft 43% % indicating know a lot/something about the draft 41% 33% 28% Male Female Urban Rural Base: n=6017 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 11 “How much would you say you know about the draft constitution?” – By Province % indicating Know a lot/something about the draft 45% 39% 38% 36% 34% 33% 31% 21% Nairobi Nyanza Western Eastern Central Rift Valley Coast North Eastern Base: n=6017 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 12 Views on the draft “How Decisive are the voters?” Will not Vote, 4% Indecisive, 19% Decisive, 77% Base: n=6017 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 14 “When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?” Will not Vote, 4% Undecided, 19% Yes to approve, 57% No to reject, 20% Base: n=6017 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 15 “When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?” Based on those who have made up their minds on how they will vote No to reject, 26% Yes to approve, 74% Base: n=4374 (those who have made up their minds) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 16 Reasons why you would vote against the proposed constitution The abortion clause 55% Inclusion of Kadhi courts 37% The land clause 32% Little or no information on the draft 6% Need further amendments 4% Issues around Devolution 4% It doesn't benefit the common man 2% No confidence on the draft 2% The Bill of Rights 2% Religious leaders are against the draft 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Base: n=1141 (those will vote NO) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 17 Support for the draft by the level of familiarity 100% 80% % Indicating will vote ‘yes to approve’ 74% 61% 60% 53% 40% 34% 20% 0% A lot Something A little Nothing Base: n=3233 (those indicated will vote Yes to approve) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 18 In you view is the draft constitution a very good constitution that does not need to be amended, a good constitution that needs a few minor amendments, an acceptable constitution that needs major amendments or a bad constitution that should be rejected altogether? A bad constitution that should be rejected altogether An acceptable 6% constitution that Don't know needs major 10% amendments 7% Very good constitution that does not need to be amended 27% A good constitution that needs a few minor amendments 50% Base: n=6017 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 19 Support for the draft by support for political personalities and political parties “If Presidential elections were held today, who would you vote for if that person was a presidential candidate?” 41% 13% Raila Odinga Kalonzo Musyoka 12% Mwai Kibaki 9% William Ruto 7% 3% 1% Martha Uhuru Karua Kenyatta 1% Charity Eugene Ngilu Wamalwa Base: n=6017 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 21 Support for the draft by political personalities followers. Supporters of: Yes to approve No to reject Undecided Will not vote Raila Odinga (n=2490) 74% 8% 12% 5% Mwai Kibaki (n=708) 57% 13% 22% 8% Martha Karua (n=431) 53% 17% 19% 12% Uhuru Kenyatta (n=163) 50% 25% 16% 9% Kalonzo Musyoka (n=778) 44% 26% 22% 9% William Ruto (n=515) 10% 68% 17% 5% Base: Supporters of each personality © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 22 “Which political party do you feel closest to?” 46% 24% 11% 9% 4% ODM PNU ODM Kenya Narc Kenya 2% 1% 1% Narc KANU Others None Base: n=6017 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 23 Support for the draft by political parties followers. Yes to approve No to reject Undecided Will not vote 100% 80% 65% 55% 60% 50% 40% 20% 45% 30% 21% 16% 17% 13% 9% 5% 19%18% 13% 17% 9% 0% ODM PNU n=2750 n=1472 Narc Kenya n=253 ODM Kenya n=556 Base: Supporters of each Party © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 24 Support for the draft by Provinces. Yes to approve No to reject Undecided Will not vote 88% 76% 65% 61% 58% 54% 41% 39% 33% 29% 4% 8% 0% North Eastern 14% 7% 2% Nyanza 21% 18% 11% 7% 16%14% 9% 12% Western Nairobi Central 9% 20% 15% 11% Coast 19% 10% Eastern 20% 8% Rift Valley Base: n=6017 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 25 Religious leaders and the draft “Should the religious leaders take sides, either “YES” or “No” on the constitutional referendum?” Not sure, 12% Yes, 48% No, 40% Yes = 50%, No 35%, Not sure 16% Base: n=6017 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 27 “Which side would you like the religious leaders to support?” Yes side, 24% Neither side, 40% No side, 17% Not sure, 19% Base: n=6017 (All Respondents) © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 28 Poll Methodology The target population for this survey was all Kenyans who have recently registered with the IIEC as voters. A sample size of 6017 respondents was drawn and distributed across the country based on the voters register by regions as per the IIEC. The sample was distributed across 71 districts. The maximum margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 1.6 % margin at 95% confidence level. A randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensured that districts with a higher voter population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. The interviews were done face to face at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control. These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions . The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 29 For further details Please contact: George Waititu Tel: + 254 20 4450 196 Mobile: +254 722206980 George.waititu@synovate .com © Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate Referendum Baseline Poll May 2010 30