Referendum Baseline
Public Opinion Poll
June 2010
Date Published: 4th June 2010
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Methodology
Objective of the Survey
The objective of the survey was to assess voters views on issues
around the draft constitution including voting intentions and
prediction of the likely outcome of the referendum.
To inform and act as a planning guide for the various stakeholders
involved in the referendum process and to inform public debate
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Poll Methodology
Dates of polling
Sample Size
Sampling methodology
Universe
Data collection
methodology
Sampling error
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May 22nd – May 28th
6017 respondents
Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS
Recently registered voters by IIEC
Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the
household level
+/-1.6 with a 95% confidence level
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Sample Distribution
National
Population
distribution
(over 18 years)
Province
Distribution of
registered voters
(IIEC Register)
Survey Sample
distribution
Nairobi
10%
10%
10%
Central
14%
16%
16%
Coast
9%
8%
8%
Eastern
16%
16%
16%
North Eastern
3%
2%
2%
Nyanza
14%
14%
14%
Rift Valley
24%
24%
24%
Western
11%
11%
11%
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Media coverage on
draft constitutional
matters
Constitutional issues media coverage (1st to 30th May 2010)
TV
14%
Print
15%
Radio
71%
Overall : 6,746 articles across 9 print titles, 36 radio channels and 5 Tv channels (May 2010)
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Constitutional issues coverage on TV (1st to 30th May 2010)
"Yes" Campaigns
24%
General Referendum Issues
20%
"No" Campaigns
13%
Civic Education
11%
Kadhi courts ruling
10%
Voter Registration
6%
Draft constitution debates
6%
Draft publication issues
6%
Public Opinion Polls
2%
National Prayer Day
1%
TJRC issues
1%
Party politics
1%
IIEC by-elections
0%
ICC investigations
0%
0%
Share of coverage
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
TV Basis; 925 items across 5 Tv channels
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Familiarity with the
proposed Draft
“How much do you know about the draft constitution?”
Nothing, 13%
A lot, 10%
Something, 25%
A little, 51%
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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“What are the sources of what you know about the constitution?”
Radio
58%
Television
43%
Friends/relatives
32%
Print media
31%
Personally read draft
19%
Religious leaders
17%
Politicians
17%
Internet
5%
Professional associations
2%
Employer
1%
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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“How much would you say you know about the draft
constitution?” – By Gender and Setting
% indicating know a lot/something
about the draft
43%
% indicating know a lot/something
about the draft
41%
33%
28%
Male
Female
Urban
Rural
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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“How much would you say you know about the draft
constitution?” – By Province
% indicating Know a lot/something
about the draft
45%
39%
38%
36%
34%
33%
31%
21%
Nairobi
Nyanza
Western
Eastern
Central
Rift Valley
Coast
North
Eastern
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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Views on the draft
“How Decisive are the voters?”
Will not Vote, 4%
Indecisive, 19%
Decisive, 77%
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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“When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote
YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?”
Will not Vote,
4%
Undecided,
19%
Yes to approve,
57%
No to reject,
20%
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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“When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote
YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?”
Based on those who have made up
their minds on how they will vote
No to reject,
26%
Yes to approve,
74%
Base: n=4374 (those who have made up their
minds)
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Reasons why you would vote against the proposed
constitution
The abortion clause
55%
Inclusion of Kadhi courts
37%
The land clause
32%
Little or no information on the draft
6%
Need further amendments
4%
Issues around Devolution
4%
It doesn't benefit the common man
2%
No confidence on the draft
2%
The Bill of Rights
2%
Religious leaders are against the draft
2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Base: n=1141 (those will vote NO)
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Support for the draft by the level of familiarity
100%
80%
% Indicating will vote ‘yes to approve’
74%
61%
60%
53%
40%
34%
20%
0%
A lot
Something
A little
Nothing
Base: n=3233 (those indicated will vote Yes to
approve)
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In you view is the draft constitution a very good constitution that does
not need to be amended, a good constitution that needs a few minor
amendments, an acceptable constitution that needs major amendments
or a bad constitution that should be rejected altogether?
A bad constitution
that should be
rejected altogether
An acceptable
6%
constitution that
Don't know
needs major
10%
amendments
7%
Very good
constitution that
does not need to be
amended
27%
A good constitution
that needs a few
minor amendments
50%
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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Support for the draft
by support for
political personalities
and political parties
“If Presidential elections were held today, who would you vote
for if that person was a presidential candidate?”
41%
13%
Raila
Odinga
Kalonzo
Musyoka
12%
Mwai
Kibaki
9%
William
Ruto
7%
3%
1%
Martha
Uhuru
Karua Kenyatta
1%
Charity Eugene
Ngilu Wamalwa
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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Support for the draft by political personalities followers.
Supporters of:
Yes to approve No to reject Undecided
Will not vote
Raila Odinga (n=2490)
74%
8%
12%
5%
Mwai Kibaki (n=708)
57%
13%
22%
8%
Martha Karua (n=431)
53%
17%
19%
12%
Uhuru Kenyatta (n=163)
50%
25%
16%
9%
Kalonzo Musyoka (n=778)
44%
26%
22%
9%
William Ruto (n=515)
10%
68%
17%
5%
Base: Supporters of each personality
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“Which political party do you feel closest to?”
46%
24%
11%
9%
4%
ODM
PNU
ODM Kenya Narc Kenya
2%
1%
1%
Narc
KANU
Others
None
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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Support for the draft by political parties followers.
Yes to approve
No to reject
Undecided
Will not vote
100%
80%
65%
55%
60%
50%
40%
20%
45%
30%
21%
16%
17%
13%
9%
5%
19%18%
13%
17%
9%
0%
ODM
PNU
n=2750
n=1472
Narc Kenya
n=253
ODM Kenya
n=556
Base: Supporters of each Party
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Support for the draft by Provinces.
Yes to approve
No to reject
Undecided
Will not vote
88%
76%
65%
61%
58%
54%
41%
39%
33%
29%
4%
8%
0%
North
Eastern
14%
7%
2%
Nyanza
21%
18%
11%
7%
16%14%
9%
12%
Western
Nairobi
Central
9%
20%
15%
11%
Coast
19%
10%
Eastern
20%
8%
Rift Valley
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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Religious leaders and
the draft
“Should the religious leaders take sides, either “YES” or “No”
on the constitutional referendum?”
Not sure, 12%
Yes, 48%
No, 40%
Yes = 50%,
No 35%,
Not sure 16%
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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“Which side would you like the religious leaders to support?”
Yes side, 24%
Neither side, 40%
No side, 17%
Not sure, 19%
Base: n=6017 (All Respondents)
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Poll Methodology
The target population for this survey was all Kenyans who have recently registered with the IIEC as voters. A sample size of 6017
respondents was drawn and distributed across the country based on the voters register by regions as per the IIEC. The sample was
distributed across 71 districts.
The maximum margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 1.6 % margin at 95%
confidence level. A randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensured that
districts with a higher voter population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation.
The interviews were done face to face at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random
sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control. These face-to-face in-home interviews
are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions .
The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected
within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in
the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member
randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member
selection.
The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll
questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is
no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork
Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the
field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing
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For further details Please contact:
George Waititu
Tel: + 254 20 4450 196
Mobile: +254 722206980
George.waititu@synovate .com
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