72520
WORLD BANK
September 4
Sahel Drought Situation Report No. 10
Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal
DROUGHT SITUATION
 19 million people are facing a food and nutrition crisis in West Africa’s Sahel region due to a
combination of drought, poor accessibility to food, high grain prices, environmental degradation and
displacement due to conflict. From that number, 1.5 million children under the age of five are at risk for
acute malnutrition, according to the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF).
 National government and UN data indicate 8 million people are in immediate need of emergency food
assistance. Food security and nutrition are expected to worsen in coming weeks. Urgent funding is
needed.
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Per country: the drought is affecting the following number of people: Niger: 6.4 million; Mali: 4.6 million;
Chad: 3.6 million; Burkina Faso: 2.1 million; Senegal: 739,000; Mauritania: 700,000; Nigeria: 100,000.
Cameroon and The Gambia are also affected to a lesser degree.
World food prices jumped by 10% in July further weakening the purchase power of the most vulnerable
households.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
 The beginning of the lean season has begun throughout much of the Sahel and households are facing
food shortages until the next harvest (FAO). Favorable rains will help the next crop but are not providing
much needed immediate relief.
 The situation in Mali 1 is widely seen as the main aggravator in the general Sahel food security crisis.
Islamic extremists who control the northern half of Mali on Saturday captured their furthest position
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The March 22 coup led by a military Junta in Bamako, Mali, left the north of the country open to Tuareg rebels of the Azawad National
Liberation Movement (MNLA), battling alongside Islamist militants (known as Ansar Dine and backed by Al Queda) who want to impose
Islamic law in the country, took over much of the region. The national army was unable to respond. The MLNA have since declared the
North “independent”. The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) has also now become active in the region.
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south in the town of Douentza, which frontiers government-held territory. Fighters from a group allied to
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) entered the town and disarmed a local militia. Douentza lies
170 kilometers (100 miles) from the town of Mopti, the last big army-controlled town en route to the
north, which was seized by armed Islamist groups linked to AQIM in March and April.
The acting President, Dioncounda Traoré returned to Bamako on July 27. On July 29, the acting President
delivered a message to the nation stressing the importance of peace, national unity and social cohesion
with the view to finding a way out of the crisis, and restoring the country territorial integrity.
The new Government in Mali is expected to meet the challenge of restoring state authority over the
northern part of the country and that of the organization of free, transparent and credible elections in
the periods of 12 months set for the completion of the Transition. Given the urgency and gravity of the
challenge facing Mali, including prevailing humanitarian situation in the North and its impact on the
South and the neighboring countries, ensuring humanitarian access to the civilian population in need is
also of critical priority.
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees warned that the political crisis in Mali is having a “deep impact”
on the food emergency. Since January, more than 260,000 refugees have fled into neighboring countries
Niger, Mauritania and Burkina Faso. Within Mali, approximately 200,000 people have been displaced as
a result of the fighting.
To add to the crisis, the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) is reporting that in central and
northern Niger, desert locust eggs have begun to hatch. Hatching is also feared in northern Mali but the
conflict has prevented any confirmation. The National Center for the Prevention of the Desert Locusts has
warned that unless control measures are put in place in areas of conflict, people’s livelihoods and crops
in the region could be greatly affected.
REGIONAL FORECAST
 Seasonal rains are beginning across the Sahel which should have a positive impact on the previous
months’ planting of crops (so long as the locust situation does not worsen and the political situation is
brought under control). The African Centre for Meteorological Applications (ACMAD) is predicting above
normal precipitation at the start of the summer rainy season which should ease drought conditions in
most of the region. In Niger, Nigeria and Senegal, major flooding has already occurred due to higher
than normal precipitation levels (separate update produced).
 Most regions are not expected to surpass Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) 32 however continued
disruption of humanitarian aid (whether from lack of funding or restricted access in conflict zones) will
significantly affect the situation. Areas unable to be reached, most notably in Mali, could reach IPC 4
(emergency) or higher.
International Appeal
 UN OCHA reports that US$1.65 billion is required for humanitarian assistance. US$916 million (56% of
requirement) has been raised so far (including consolidated appeals).
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IPC uses a scale of 1-5, 1 is normal, 2 is stress, 3 is crisis, 4 is emergency and 5 is famine
2
Source OCHA FTS 3 August, 2012
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USAID has increased their funding by US$ 5.5 million to a total of US$ 353 million. The EU increased its
funding by €40 million for a total of €337 million.
The recently released joint multiple agency report on the Sahel crisis3 emphasizes two basic “schools” of
thought: one which considers the crisis acute and widespread and the other which views it as less acute but
more of a chronic problem. Mostly all agree that humanitarian assistance is still highly needed.
COUNTRY SITUATION
Burkina Faso:
 The cropping season is proceeding as normal with the exception of north and northeastern section of
the country which remains stressed (IPC 2);
 Areas bordering Niger and Mali are in a crisis (IPC 3) food security situation due to the last remaining
month of the lean season combined with a stress on resources due to 89,000 refugees from Mali
creating competition for grain resources;
 The Government’s grain distribution program continues to supply emergency food assistance for 2-2.8
million people. This assistance should continue through September;
 Food prices remain high compared to last year however, the use of food reserves combined with
humanitarian assistance has reportedly aided in the stabilization of markets. At the same time, the more
people are seeking work in all livelihood areas which could result in a reduction of income (from wage
labor) of 10 to 20 percent.
Chad:
 The rainy season has begun early with normal levels of rain. Agro-pastoral areas are expected to register
a decent harvest at the end of the year and only the central region is considered to be in crisis situation
(IPC 3;.
 Even with a third of the country considered food insecure and stressed (IPC 2), the situation is improving
slightly due to a combination of humanitarian assistance and favorable rains (producing more
vegetation). However, the increased presence of new vegetation could also trigger an increase in the
desert locusts;
Reflections from a Joint Multiple-Agency Examination of the Sahel Food Security Crisis June 13-22, 2012 – FAO, USAID, FEWSNET,
WFP
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Mali:
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Food prices have stabilized across the country but remain high compared to last year by 20-50%.
Of the 4.6 million people affected by the food security and nutrition crisis in the country, approximately
1.6 million lived in northern Mali. This number may have decreased due to displacement of population,
but limited humanitarian access makes it difficult to have reliable data;
Education of over 300,000 children in schools in the northern regions is affected;
Rebel held areas in the North remain in a crisis (IPC 3) food security situation;
Grain prices remain highly elevated compared to a five year average Similar to Chad, favorable rains
have produced new vegetation which is positive for the cropping season but may facilitate the growth of
new swarms of locusts. Additionally, due to the conflict, many fields have been abandoned so the
upcoming harvest will most definitely be negatively affected;
The situation in the North has affected the ability to assess and put in place an appropriate strategy to
circumvent locust threat, currently affecting mainly Adrar des Iforas and Tamesna in the Kidal region.
The infrastructure which had been established under the WB funded regional operation (closed 2 years
ago) to carry out campaigns has either been destroyed or co-opted by armed groups;
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), in cooperation with the Mali Red Cross, was able
to begin limited general food distributions in the areas of Timbuktu and Gao assisting 160,000
vulnerable Malians;
An estimated 174,000 persons have been Internally Displaced People (IDP) since the coup. While it is
estimated that 105,000 IDPs are currently in the North, there are 32,500 IDPs in Mopti, 20,550 in Segou,
12,390 in Bamako, 2,800 in Sikasso and 710 in Kayes. Another 265,000 refugees have been registered in
Burkina Faso (107,929), Mauritania (101,904) and Niger (55,392). The Algerian authorities have also
reported some 30,000 Malian nationals have sought refuge in the country( this group has not been
registered by United Nation High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR)). This number significantly exceeds
UNHCR’s contingency planning figure of a total of 85,000 refugees in all three countries. The refugees
are placing an enormous burden on local communities;
Preliminary estimates by the IMF indicate that real GDP may contract by 4.5 percent in 2012;
Loss of income following poor agricultural campaign, rising food prices, and more difficult access to basic
social services Mali’s are expected to increase the poverty rate from 41.57% in 2010 to 42.7% in 2012.
Mauritania:
 The agricultural season which began in July, combined with the Government’s food assistance program,
has helped reduce overall levels of food insecurity in the country with only the south in a stressed (IPC 2)
situation;
 The government has also launched a World Bank supported national production plan focused on new
irrigation schemes which would help increase cereal production and increase drought resilience;
 The beginning of the normal rainy season since June has restored some stability in the purchasing
power of households. The beginning of agricultural activities is providing opportunities for income and
pasture improvement;
 In general, food security conditions in Mauritania are expected to improve due to favorable rains and
National/International food assistance;
 In the extreme southeast, the arrival of herds of cattle from refugees continues to put a strain on
eastern border regions as the demand for fodder increases. A second refugee camp in Aghor is being
opened (Mbera is the other camp). 9,000 Malian refugees are currently residing in the country.
Niger:
 Several areas of the country remain in a crisis (IPC 3) food security situation. The planting season has
begun yet grain prices remain high along with the demand. Many people remain hungry due to the
erratic onset of rains last year;
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Desert locusts continue to menace the north of the country although control measures have been put in
place in certain areas. Locust activity has been reported in Tamesna, Air, Ténéré and Tanout;
The refugees fleeing Mali are placing a large strain on resources in western and southern Niger. Many
villages (such as those in Tillabéry) along the border have exhausted their stocks of food due to high
demand from the influx. Some villagers have been reported as having moved to larger cities to escape
the crisis;
Initial food security assessments indicate a decrease in the number of those in a stressed or crisis phase
but exact figures will not be known until next month.
Nigeria:
 The Northeast is well into its lean season and food insecurity is expected to peak in September (IPC 2)
until harvests in October. Prolonged dryness is expected in this region contrary to the heavy rains being
experienced further south;
 Civil insecurity in Borno and Yobe States is creating more internal displacement;
 If civil insecurity persists due to activities by Boko Haram, Yobe and Borno States could fall into a crisis
(IPC 3) food security situation;
Senegal:
 Only small localized areas of the country are in a stressed (IPC 2) food security situation;
 The Government, in coordination with UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), has launched an emergency
response operation for Matam and Diourbel regions which have depleted local food stocks due to a
below average 2011/2012 harvest aggravated by drought;
 Localized food prices are showing a 12% increase compared to last year.
World Bank Response (only reflecting updates since situation report #9)
Regional:
 The open source website Sahel Response (http://sahelresponse.org/)4 is functional with partners
uploading data on a regular basis. Plans are underway to hand over the site to local regional institutions.
Burkina Faso:
 The country team is maintaining the medium and long-term objectives of its current projects aimed at
building the country’s resilience to disasters.
 Existing projects include: Community Based Rural Development Program, the 2nd National Program for
Soil Management, West Africa Agricultural Productivity Program, Support Project for Agro-pastoral
Safety Nets, Project for Improved Agricultural Productivity and Food Security, Project for Agricultural
Productivity and Market Development and use of, Project for Health Sector Support and the Japanese
Trust Fund for social development.
Chad:
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No new updates
Mauritania:
 No new updates
Mali:
 No new updates
Niger:
 No new updates
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Partnership with NASA SERVIR, Development, SEED, WFP, USAID and ITHACA to openly share regional data and improve regional
monitoring.
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Senegal:
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A US$1.1 million GFDRR financed project has been launched to strengthen the capacity of the
Senegalese Civil Protection Agency and support the country’s disaster risk reduction platform.
Disaster Risk Management Team Contact:
Doekle Wielinga, AFR DRM Coordinator, AFTWR, WB Washington DC, AfricaDRM@worldbank.org
Disaster Risk Management Website
Sources: Local Governments, UN, OCHA, WFP, ECHO, FEWSNet, Relief Web press releases from various local and
int’l media sources, WB Staff
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