International
Tour Operator
Management
Part II
2007
Market Research and customer behaviour
2
Forecasting models in tourism
• Forecasting is very necessary in tourism
– Rational decision cannot be taken with forecast about trends
– Risk of management mistakes is high in tourism because
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Tourism services cannot be stored
Service consumption is part of production, happening at same time
Customer satisfaction depends to a large part on external factors
For many areas high investment costs (infrastructure, hotels)
• Different criteria for measuring tourism
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Number of visitors/guests, number of tourists (UNWTO)
Number of visitor groups
Number of overnight stays
Level of expenditure per person per day
Value added share of tourism (WTTC)
Market share
3
Forecasting methods in tourism
•
Difficulties
– New industry, lack of long-term timelines and historic data
– Standardisation of tourism statistics just beginning internationally (Satellite accounts),
not existing for domestic tourism
– Demand volatile, easily influenced by external factors and events
– Under-academication of tourism industry, „Rule of thumb“
– Lack of methodical knowledge in tourism industry
•
Forms of forecasting
– Qualitative und quantitative Forecasting methods
– Short / long term methods
– Examples: Survey, Scenarios, Delphi
4
Market research and analysis
•
Market research
– Systematic process of acquiring, processing and analysing quantitative and qualitative
data to assist the decision making process.
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Different forms of market research
– Facts, Images, perceptions, motivations
– Analysis of situation at given moment or ongoing market scan to understand
developments and trends of market
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Major tasks of market research
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Definition of (sub-)markets
Analysis of (sub-)markets
Demand research
Competition research
5
Market research forms
• Primary research – Field research
– Own research (company or Institute)
• Surveys
• Observation
• Experiment
• Reporting
• Secundary research – Desk research
– Internal sources
– External sources
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German tourism market research institutes I
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B.A.T. Freizeit-Forschungsinstitut GmbH, Hamburg
Consultant Aviation & Tourism, Stelle
Creatours Destination, Freizeit, Tourismus, Dresden
Dallmeier & Partner, Korschenbroich
Deutscher Reisemonitor – DRM, c/o IPK International GmbH,
München
Deutsches Touristik-Institut eV, DTI, Stockdorf/München
dwif – Consulting GmbH, Berlin/München
dwif – Deutsches Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Institut für
Fremdenverkehr eV an der Universität München, München
Europäisches Tourismus Institut – ETI, Trier
Europäischer Reisemonitor c/o European Travel Intelligence Center,
Luxemburg
FT – Freizeit und Touristik GmbH, Grafschaft
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German tourism market research institutes II
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FUR Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen eV, Kiel
Inspektour GmbH, Heide
Ipsos GmbH, Mölln
ITF Research GmbH, Bremerhaven
Mobility & Touristcope, (DB, LH, T.O., Autoindustrie), Frankfurt
Project M Marketing Research GmbH, Lüneburg
Reppel + Partner GmbH, Karslruhe-Durlach
Studiengemeinschaft für Tourismus SfT, Ammerland/Bayern
TourismusKompetenz, München
Ulysses – Web-Tourismus, München
World-Travel Monitor Ltd. Malta, c/o IPK International GmbH,
München
8
Tourism Fairs in Germany and abroad
Fair
Visitors
2004
Exhibitors
2005
2004
2005
ITB Berlin
141.139
142.351
10.023
10.409
CBR München
139.000
130.000
1.143
1.237
CMT Stuttgart
190.476
176.930
1.400
1.400
Messe Essen
110.600
103.200
858
751
Reisen Hamburg
103.000
100.000
1.060
1.086
Freizeit+Garten
Nürnberg
178.746
143.249
702
624
2006:
46.945
2006:
5.602
2006:
3.100
WTM London
CITM Shanghai
9
Examples of Market research methods
– Surveys: oral, written, by telephone, online
• Structured/unstructured, standardised
• Open/half open/closed surveys
– Experiment
• Test markets
– Observation
• Customer behaviour
• Frequencies, Spatial movement analysis, test purchases
• Trend analysis
– Extrapolation of past developments into the future: dangerous („Predictions
are dangerous, especially if they concern the future“ – Nils Bohrs) especially
for fast developing activity like tourism
– Example: Predictions of situation 2007 made in 1987 (cold war), or 1997 (no
internet, no budget airlines)
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Customer behaviour
• Influences
• Cultural
– Cultural background
– Subculture
– Social background
• Social
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Peer groups
Family
Role and Status
Perception of tourism
• Personal
– Age, current biographical
situation
– Job
– Economic situation
– Lifestyle
– Self-perception
– Motivation
– Values
– Travel Biography
• Increasing segmentation
• number of milieus
increasing
• disappearance of clear
social roles in post-modern
society
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Market segmentation
•
http://www.sinus-sociovision.de/
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Analysis of customer behaviour
• Seven questions, seven answers
Who is the market?
Customers
What is the product?
Product (physical/intentional)
Why is it bought?
Purchase objectives
Who influences the purchasing
Stakeholders
process?
How is the purchase
organized?
Purchasing process
When does the purchase
happen?
Purchase triggers
Where does the purchase
happen?
Point of Sale
13
Competitor analysis and benchmarking
• Ongoing analysis of competitors behaviour
– Direct: Observation of products, offers, marketing activities of competitors
– Indirect: Intelligence about competitors plans and strategies („Know your
enemy better than he knows himself“ – Sun Zi)
• Benchmarking
– Learning from the best in the branch (opposite „best practice“ – can also be
from other branches)
– Identifying benchmark competitor for specific task, analysis of own
shortcomings, implementation, feedback (TQM)
14
Definition of Market for specific product
– Markets are mentally constructed
– Markets are dynamic
– Customers decide on market structure
•
Classical Segmentation
– Geographical, demographical and psychographical
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Postmodern Segmentierung
– Lifestyle, activities, milieus
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Major trends in customer behaviour
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1. Changing customer profile
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2. Shifting consumption pattern
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3. Intensifying competition / continuing consolidation
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4. Growing segmentation
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5. Escalating concern for safety / security
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6. Increasing value orientation
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7. Increasing influence of the internet
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8. Several short trips instead of one long holiday, short-time decision
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9. Less customers loyalty for Tour Operator or destination
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Influences on customers behaviour in tourism
Development
Observable changes
Demographical
development
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Greying society
more small and single
households
Income and wealth
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More high-income people
More wealthy people
Loss of set values
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Disappearance of class and
strata specific behaviour
Results for tourism behaviour
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Influences on customers behaviour in tourism
Development
Observable changes
Time perception
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Results for tourism behaviour
More free time yet feeling of
necessity to save time
Multitasking
Health and
environmental
interest
•
Interest in healthiness and
environmental impact of
products
Level of education
and travel
experience
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Increasing education levels
and travel experience
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Tourism motivation
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Some classical theories:
Maslow‘s pyramid of needs
Fleeing from bad situation at home
Search for authenticity
Recreation, regeneration
Self-actualization
Contrast to home
Structuring of time after loss of religious time frame
Travelling for health reasons
Travelling for unrestricted enactment of consumption (sex,
alcohol, servility)
• Travelling as own goal (the way is the goal: hiking, cruise)
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Tourists typologies
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Typologies according to
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Activities
Preferred surroundings
Spatial behaviour
Level of integration into local community
Forms of information gathering
Opposition to normal life
Frequency of travel
Position in biographical development of travelling
Etc. etc.
– Problem: multioptional behaviour within source markets and within individual tourist
increasing, wish for higher intensity
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Tourists and lifestyle typologies - Examples
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Opaschowski: Tourists focussing on
– Integration
– Prestige
– Experience
– Culture
– Entertainment
– Quality
– Economy
Austria 2000 – Euro-Lifestyle
– The careful Recreationist
– The classical Culture tourist
– The demanding Experiencer
– The young Enjoyer
– The young Family
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Marketing for Tour operators
Discussion
Major problems:
Brand-adequate Quality: Dependance on external
service providers
Increasing transparency of offers from competitors /
direct sales
Dependance on destination marketing - Necessitiy of
cooperation
…
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Product Management
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Product Management Steps
Market research, analysis, product and marketing planning
Economical and technical planning
Sourcing
Product Management
Publication
PR, Ads, Distribution
Actual trip
After trip/program feedback, controlling
Customer feedback management
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Product Management policies
Product Management
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Programme policies
Brand policies
Product development and adaptation
Customer Service
Dimensions of Product Management
Strategic Product Management
Long term development
Tactical Product Management
Product development and adaption
Operative Product Management
Product realization
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Types of packages tours
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Full package tour
Part package tour
Individual package tour (moduls)
All Inclusive Tour
Dynamic Packaging
Specific tours (f.i. business, incentive, cruise, pilgrime, event tour)
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Product development
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What is the customer really looking for?
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Example „Space“ tourism
Generic product
Expected product
Extended product
Potential product
Product includes
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Competence to offer product solutions
Bundle of services necessary
Service claims and promises
Risk taking
Package price
Preparation, Standardisation, Quality control
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Product adaptation
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What are different source market customers really looking for?
– Product adaptation according to customers expectations and behaviour
– Different stories for same product for different customers
– Spatial differentation for different customer groups at destination
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Parts of product
– Technical
• Material, Construction
– Aesthetic
• Form, Colour, Design, Packaging
– Symbolic
• Brand, Image
– Main features
• Aim/Goal of product purchase
– Additional features
• Information, Customer service
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Dynamic Packaging
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Definition
– Choosing, packaging and booking for different moduls of a package tour in
realtime with a package price
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Dynamic Packaging disappears in mass market
– With increase of package tourists standardised pre-packed tours with
standard length and programme easiert to organise and to sell
•
Dynamic Packaging reappears in post-industrial consumer market
– Wish for multi-purpose, multi-dimensional travel. Increase in travel
experience by customers, IT advantages
•
Dynamic Packaging changes T.O. business
– Need to have stand-alone components ready in realtime
– Muddling of border travel agency – tour operator
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Pricing
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Price in the product life cycle
Price
Premium Pricing
Skimming
Cost plus Pricing
Penetration
Discount Pricing
Time
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Price limits
Upper price limit
Price variation of
offer
Too expensive,
outside of price
acceptance
Acceptable increase
Optimum price
limit
Planned Budget
Price
acceptance
Acceptable decrease
Lower price limit
Too cheap, outside of
price acceptance
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Distribution
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Distribution
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Ways of distribution
– Direct distribution
– indirect distribution
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Forms of sales organisations
– Own / others: broker, consolidators, traders
– Within the industry (cooperation, franchise, travel agencies) / outside the
industry (retail, department stores, gas station)
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Instruments of distribution
– Agency agreement, commission, direct/indirect sales support, training of
staff
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Direct and indirect Distribution
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DIRECT
Lower costs
Better customer relation
Higher brand awareness
Less reliance on distribution partners
But: conflict with travel agencies and other distribution partners
– (examples German Railway, Colorline)
INDIRECT
Own channels (travel agencies, media groups, franchise)
Other channels (general, selective or exclusive)
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Travel agencies as distribution channel for
tour operators
•
„Ein Reisebüro/Reisevermittler ist im Verhältnis zum
Reiseveranstalter Handelsvertreter im Sinne der §§ 84 ff HGB und für
den Kunden / Reisenden auf der Basis eines entgeltlichen (Provision)
Geschäftsbesorgungsvertrages § 675 BGB mit Werkvertragscharakter
§§ 631 ff BGB tätig.“
•
Vertragsgegenstand zwischen Reisebüro und Kunde ist die
– Vermittlung einer einzelnen Reiseleistung eines fremden Leistungsträgers
oder
– Vermittlung einer Pauschalreise eines fremden Reiseveranstalters.
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Function of the travel agency
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Tour operators point of view:
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Matchmaking between customer and T.O.
Commission is only paid if business is generated, part of variable cost structure
Provision of comprehensive distribution network without onw investment
Known POS
Often good location (1A) (physical / internet)
Existence of loyal regular customers, good experiences of customers with travel
agency crossing over to recommended T.O. product
Customers point of view:
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Easy to reach, personal service
Physical information (catalogues)
Consultation, answers to „silly“ questions
Face-to-face communication, also for complaints
Filters out unsuitable, unrealiable offers
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Communication policy
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Communication policy
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Goal: Positively Influencing
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Own staff
Potential customers
Actual customers
Public opinion
Politicians, institutions
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Advertisement – above the line
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Openly influencing public opinion to
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Keep customers
Get new customers
Produce positive environment for own products
Directly adress customers
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Sales support
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Supporting distribution channels:
– Monetary activities:
Commission on sales (basic, special, volume-based, target-based)
Incentives for individual sellers
Refinancing of PR/advertisement activities
Payment of credit card costs etc.
– Non-monetary activities:
Product information
Trainings
discounted travels
decoration materials
Hotline etc.
Supporting direct distribution:
– Catalogues, discounts, loyalty bonusses etc.
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Public Relations work - below the line
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Indirectly or Covertly influencing public opinion by
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Press releases
Events
Sponsoring
Customers forum
House magazines
Website
Participation in fairs etc.
Product placement
Guerilla marketing
Covert websites support
Cross selling etc.
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Quality Management
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Quality management
• Quality ≠ Expensive
• Quality: Hardware, Surroundings, Software
• Quality: Ongoing process
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TQM – Total Quality Management
• Customer point of view: How important is the
service offered and how was the quality of the
service perceived?
• Producers point of view: How good was the quality
management?
• TQM as a never-ending upward spiral (Kaizen)
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Ecology management
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Based on:
Laws and regulations
Customer demand
Staff demand
• In Germany:
• DeHoGa Eco Criteria
• Government subsidies from
– European Recovery Program (ERP)
– Deutsche Ausgleichsbank (DtA)
– Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW)
– Bundesländer Subsidies
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Ecology management
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Labels:
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Many Ecology labels worldwide on different levels
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Example Bavaria:
http://www.stmugv.bayern.de/umwelt/wirtschaft/siegel/inde
x.htm
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Other examples:
Blaue Flagge, Grüner Koffer
Top label in Germany: Viabono
48
Sources
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Bastian, H., Born, K., (2004): Der integrierte Tourismuskonzern,
München/Wien.
Becker, P., (2004): Yield-Management, Düsseldorf.
Berg, W., (2001): Tourismus 3, (Hrsg.) Dettmer, H., Stuttgart.
Bieger, T., (2002): Management der Destination, 5. Auflage, München/Wien.
Böttcher, V., (2005): Virtuell oder real?, TUI Deutschland, Köln.
Dettmer, H., Glück, E., Hausmann, Th., Kaspar, C., Logins, H., Opitz, W.,
Schneid, W., (2000): Tourismustypen, München/Wien.
Dettmer, H., Hausmann, Th., Kloss, I., Meisl, H., Weithöner, U., Degott,
P., (1999): Tourismus-Marketing-Management, München/Wien.
Dettmer, H., Hausmann, T., Kaspar, C., Oppitz, W., Schneid, W.,
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Wien/Köln/Aarau.
Dettmer, H., Hausmann, Th., (2004): Yield-Management, Bad Harzburg.
Dettmer, H., u.a., (2005): Managementformen im Tourismus, München/Wien.
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Glaeßer, D., (2001): Krisenmanagement im Tourismus, Frankfurt.
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Abbrevations
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AG
AGB
AGBG
BCG
BGB
BAT
BSP
BTM
CA
CSI
CRS
DB
DCR
•
DER
Aktiengesellschaft
Allgemeine Geschäftsbedingungen
Allgemeine Geschäftsbedingungen Gesetz
Boston Consulting Group
Bürgerliche Gesetzbuch
British American Tobacco
Billing and Settlement Plan
Business Travel Management
Canada/USA
Customer Satisfaction Index
Computer Reservation System
Deutsche Bahn
Differenz zwischen Business Class und dem
Rechnungsbetrag
Deutsches Reisebüro
55
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
DMC
DMO
ETIX
FTI
FuE
GDS
GF
GfK
GSA/GV
HGB
HLX
InfV
Destination Management Company
Destination Marketing Organisation
Electronic Ticket
Frosch Touristik International
Forschung und Entwicklung
Global Distribution System
Geschäftführer
Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung
General Sales Agent/General-Vertretung
Handelsgesetzbuch
Hapag Lloyd Express
Informations-Verordnung
56
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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•
•
•
•
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•
IPK
ITS
KfW
LCA/LBA
LCC
LG
LTI
LTS
LTU
LVG
MIS
NSA
NUR
NVAG
PangVO
Institut für Planungs-Kybernetik
Internationaler Touristik Service
Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau
Low-Cost-Airlines/Low-Budget-Airlines
Lufthansa City-Center/Low Cost Carrier
Landgericht
Luft Transport und Immobilien
Luft Transport und Service
Luft Transport Unternehmen (Luft Transport Union)
Luftverkehrsgesellschaft
Management- oder Marketing-Informations-System
Norwegische Schifffahrts-Agentur
Neckermann & Touristik
Neckermann-Versand AG
Preis-Angaben-Verordnung
57
•
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RB
RM
R/N
T.O.
RV
RZ
TC
TN
TQ3
TQM
TUC
PAF
PD
PM
POS
Reisebüro
Reisemittler, Revenue Management
Room/Night
Reiseveranstalter
Reiseveranstaltung
Risiko-Zuschlag
Thomas Cook
Teilnehmer
Total Quality 3
Total Quality Management
TUI Urlaubs Center
Pay-as-you-fly
Preisdifferenzierung
Product-Manager
Point of Sale
58
•
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PR
PTA
QM
TUI
TVG
UWG
VF
WKZ
YM
3BZ
4BZ
Public Relation
Prepaid Ticket Advice (Rufpassage)
Qualitätsmanagement
Touristik Union International
Touristische Vertriebs-Gesellschaft
Unlauterer Wettbewerbsgesetz
Verkaufsförderung
Werbekosten-Zuschüsse
Yield Management (Revenue Management)
Dreibettzimmer
Vierbettzimmer
59