Globalization and the BRIC’s Emergence –
Understanding challenges and opportunities
The BRICs
Determinants of economic well-being
a)
Environment and resources
–
–
Geography, climate, disease and demography (human and animal)
Human and non-human capital; Land
b) Culture, philosophy and religion
–
c)
Impact on motives, incentives and opportunities
Political and social institutions
–
–
–
d)
Individual freedom vs. authoritarian control
Rule of law: extent of arbitrary confiscation or taxation
Order vs. anarchy: stimulate or retard economic expansion?
Markets: “The Division of Labour is Limited by the Extent of the Market”
– Incentives to trade and save (requires protection of property rights)
– Competition versus exercise of monopoly power
– Extraction of surplus: what remains for capital accumulation?
e)
Technologies and their application
–
–
Diffusion of new ideas and incentives for their application
(Commercial links promoted the spread of new technologies)
Freedom to reap the rewards from investment (capital accumulation)
Specificities of BRICS
• Wide variation of production structures
– heterogeneity of production systems
– heterogeneity of demand
– Shortage of capital and knowledge
• Wide regional differences
– gap between the most and the least developed
regions enormous and still growing.
• Wide income differences
– extremely high open and hidden unemployment
among unskilled workers
– there may be shortages of skilled labour
How to analyze the BRICs?
•
•
•
•
History
Politics
Culture
modes of insertion in globalization
– FDI (scale and type very different)
– Migration
• source of both capital and skilled labour (Diasporas
in China and India)
• Brain Drain
BRICs Fundamentals
Population
Area
26%
43%
GDP
Arable Land
31%
8%
Size matters: geography and demography
Frontières
Surface
Population
terrestres
Urbanisation
(millions km2)
(millions)
(nombre)
(%)
Etats-Unis
9,61
310
2
82
Japon
0,38
127
0
66
Union Européenne (27)
4,42
501
19
74
Brésil
8,51
191
10
86
Russie
17,10
143
14
73
Inde
3,29
1210
6
29
Chine
9,64
1340
14
43
TRIADE
14,41
938
..
74
BRIC
38,54
2884
..
41
Sources: ONU, World Population Prospects; Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística; China
National Bureau of Statistics; Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India; Rosstat.
Population, area, density, total and per capita GDP
Population
total 2009
thousands
Nominal GDP 2008
Area
2
km
Density
inhabitants
2
per km
total
per capita
Brazil
193.734
8.547.403
22 1.552.656
3.225
Mexico
105.699
1.958.201
54
948.476
6.397
China
1.345.751
9.560.961
134 4.348.303
1.474
India
1.198.003
3.287.263
331 1.252.903
626
48.333
99.268
480
888.023
14.266
140.874 17.075.400
8
984.927
4.047
39
283.088
4.507
Korea
Russia
South Africa
50.110
1.221.037
Source: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics, 2009.
The BRICs: Population and GDP
Source: EIU Country Reports; Nominal GDP converted to US $ billion
for comparison
Share of global GDP
Dollars courants
1990
2000
PPA
2010
1990
2000
2010
États-Unis
26
31
23
22
23
20
Japon
14
14
9
9
8
6
Union Européenne (27)
33
26
26
27
25
20
Brésil
2
2
3
3
3
3
Russie
1
1
2
5
3
3
Inde
1
1
3
3
4
6
Chine
2
4
9
3
7
13
Monde
100
100
100
100
100
100
Triade
73
71
58
58
56
46
BRIC
6
8
17
14
17
25
PPA: Parité de pouvoir d'achat, dollars internationaux 2005
Source: CEPII, base de données Chelem
The BRICs: GDP per Capita
Source: EIU 2011 Country Reports; GDP per Capita at PPP
The BRICs: Growth Rates
Distribution du PIB mondial
(dollars internationaux de 1990)
1700
1820
1950
1973
Brésil
,,,
0,4
1,6
2,4
Russie/Union soviétique
4,4
5,4
9,6
9,4
Inde
24,4
16,0
4,2
3,1
Chine
22,3
32,9
4,5
4,6
BRIC
51,1
54,7
19,9
19,5
Etats Unis
0,1
1,8
27,3
22,0
Europe
25,4
26,6
29,8
29,1
Japon
4,1
3,0
3,0
7,7
Monde
100
100
100
100
Source Maddison [2003] et Maddison [1995]
PIB par habitant (dollars
internationaux de 1990)
1700
1820
1950
1973
527
1 287
9 573
16 607
1 024
1 228
5 513
11 694
Japon
570
704
1 873
11 017
Russie
611
751
2 834
6 058
670
1 673
3 913
États-Unis
Europe occidentale
Brésil
Chine
600
523
614
1 186
Inde
550
531
597
853
Rates of Growth of World GDP, 1700-2003
(annual average compound growth rates)
Fonte: Maddison A., Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, OECD Development Centre, 2007.
Eurasia: economic integration & development
• Europe was in relative decline after collapse of Roman Empire
– Dark Ages and Middle Ages, through to c1500
– Centuries of change, not stagnation but not sustained progress either
– Contact with rest of world (Asia) via Middle East: upheavals of political
& religious conflict, but trade continues too, even expands
• East Asia: Chinese civilisation developed early relative to Europe
– Subject to Mongol invasion & domination from 12th to 14th centuries
– Sea-borne trade with south Asia, gradually extending westwards
– Overland trade via “silk road”, the Levant and Venice
• South Asia: long history of diverse civilisations
– Subject to periodic invasions (e.g. Moghuls) overland from the west
– Sea-borne trade via Arabia, the Levant and Venice
• Development of the “European exception” (economic success)
– A “great divergence” emerged, but when? Probably not until after 1500,
some argue not until as late as 1800 (the “California School”)
• The divergence between the
richest parts of China (Yangzi
delta) and England occurred
between 1750 and 1800
• What gave England/Europe
the decisive advantages over
the Yangzi delta/China were
• 1) Colonies which ensured
the supply of cotton,
produced and processed
with cheep slave labour
• 2) Coal in locations near
the industrial centers
• Therefore England could
escape the land constraint
Pomeranz – pros and cons
• Against “involution”
thesis – diminishing
marginal returns because
of population increase
(Philip C. Huang)
• Since then: lively debates
on issues of calculation
and miscalculation
• West was advanced in
comparison to China:
Education (indicator: book
production)
• China had coal and iron,
not near Yangzi delta, but
near Hankou, another
industrial/entrepot city.
• Moreover, transport was
sophisticated in 18th c.
China
Per capita GDP, main areas and countries:
(1990 PPP US$ billion)
Source: Maddison A., Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, OECD Development Centre, 2007.
GDP growth rate, main areas and countries:
(1990 PPP US$ billion)
Source: Maddison A., Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, OECD Development Centre, 2007.
GDP structure (demand side)
Consommation
Investissements
Gouvernem
Brésil
Russie
Inde
Chine
Source: UN
Solde
Ménages
ent
Capital fixe
Stocks
extérieur
2000
64
19
17
1
-2
2009
63
21
17
0
0
2000
46
15
17
2
20
2009
55
20
21
-3
7
2000
64
13
23
1
-1
2009
57
12
34
1
-5
2000
46
16
34
1
2
2009
37
14
44
2
9
Growth Conditions
–
–
–
–
–
Sound, stable macroeconomic policies
Strong, stable political institutions
Openness
High levels of education
‘Miracle’ conditions are not needed.
China
• Linear economic
transformation since 1979
– SOE reform
– Private entrepreneurship
– FDI
• Less clear-cut political
transformation
– Beijing
– Local level
Russia
• As a single geopolitical
entity, has existed for
barely twenty years.
• drastic political, economic
and intellectual changes
from the 1991 dissolution
of the Soviet Union
• Oil/natural resources
dependence  Dutch
disease
• Kremlin
India
• Much greater diversity
• A democratic miracle?
• Economic transformation
since 1991
• Political alternance
• Less stable than it seems?
Brazil
• Internal cleavages 
complex political
economy
• Military experience
• Political alternance
• More stable than it seems?
China’s economic development
Planned economy
(1953-1978)
Transformation to market
oriented economy
(1979-2004)
9%
New era of development
(2005-present)
10%
5%
Approximate average GDP growth rate
Source :
National Statistics Bureau, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/
China Research Center for Public Policy , http://www.crcpp.org/cpipphtml/en/en_sum_report/2007-11/20/200711200940.html
GDP structure (supply side)
PIB
Brésil
Russie
Inde
Chine
2010
2010
2009 e
2010
100
100
100
100
6
4
20
10
Industrie&bâtiment
27
37
25
47
Services
67
59
55
43
Agriculture
Note : e = estimation
Sources: Statistiques nationales
Social development
Brésil
1993
Russie
2009
Inde
Chine
1993
2008
1993
2005
1993
2005
Pauvres en % de la population
< $1,25
13
4
3
0
49
42
54
16
< $2,00
25
10
8
2
82
76
79
37
60
54
48
42
31
33
36
35
Inegalité
Coefficient de
Gini (%)
Poverty measures: income and
multidimensional
Poverty Reduction in Brazil, China and India
Headcount indices of poverty for a common international poverty line
Survey-based
Mixed method
Source: Chen and Ravallion (2009).
BRICS and selected countries:
Gini index/ social unequality
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Mexico
Korea, Rep.
USA
Japan
Most recent data
59.3
31.0
32.5
44.7
57.8
54.6
31.6
40.8
24.9
Source: UNDP
Is the highly unevenly distributed income a serious development
problem for Brazil and South Africa? Is China increasing social
unequality a problem for the future?
Rémunération totale horaire dans le
secteur manufacturier, 2002-2008
Households according to disposable income bracket in
BRIC countries: 2002/2007
‘000 households
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
Growth in volume of world merchandise trade and GDP
(Annual % change, 2005-13)
Growth in trade was strongest
for Europe and Asia
EU has retained its importance as
“central” in the global trade network
Asian intraregional trade has expanded
rapidly since 1990
The Diffusion of Key Global Trade Players
Ratio of exports and imports of goods
and commercial services to GDP, 2007
Source: WORLD TRADE DEVELOPMENTS
Trade openness
Exportations de biens et services
Importations de biens et
en % du PIB
services en % du PIB
1990
2009
1990
2009
Brésil
8
11
7
11
Chine
16
27
13
22
Inde
7
20
9
24
Russie
18
28
18
20
Japon
10
13
9
12
Etats-Unis
10
11
11
14
Source: World Development Indicators
Poids des BRIC dans le commerce
mondial de marchandises (%)
Exportations
Importations
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
100,0
100,0
100,0
100,0
100,0
100,0
Brésil
1,3
1,2
1,7
0,9
1,2
1,6
Russie
n.d.
2,2
3,4
n.d.
0,9
2,1
inde
0,7
0,9
1,8
0,9
1,0
2,7
Chine
2,5
5,2
13,3
2,1
4,4
11,6
BRIC
4,5
9,4
20,2
3,9
7,5
18,0
Japon
11,6
10,0
6,5
9,2
7,5
5,8
Etats-Unis
15,9
16,3
10,8
20,1
24,9
16,4
UE*
21,4
16,4
15,0
22,5
18,1
16,5
Triade
49,0
42,8
32,3
51,8
50,5
38,6
Monde*
Source: OMC
Composition des exportations de
biens et services en 2009
Agro-
Pr. industriels
Autres
Service
Total
manufacturés
Pr. primaires
alim
pr.
s
Brésil
100
33
20
28
3
15
Inde
100
34
11
6
14
35
Russie
100
19
59
5
7
12
Chine
100
86
2
2
2
10
Source: CEPII Base de données Chelem
Poids (%) des BRIC dans le commerce de la
Triade, 2010
30
25
20
Chine
15
Russie
10
Inde
Brésil
5
0
M
X
Etats-Unis
M
X
Japon
M
X
UE27
Orientation du commerce des BRIC
(en % de leur commerce total) en 2010
70
Exportations
Importations
TRIADE
60
50
40
BRIC
b
30
20
10
0
Brésil Inde Russie Chine
Source CEPII Chelem
Brésil Inde Russie Chine
China surpassing Japan as a more
significant regional and global consumer
Gross exports may not appropriately capture the
extent of domestic value added export
Vertical specialization has increased
since the mid-1990s
G7 exports are still differentiated by
price and quality characteristics
1) Tariffs, import licences and customs controls
• Governments often justify these steps as
short-term remedies for particular problems
– AR new minimum prices for backpacks and prams
– new tariffs on lawn-mower-blades in South Africa
• cumulative impact is significant
– barriers are easier to put in place than to remove
– the share of trade held back by protectionist
measures tends to grow over time
– longer-run strategic decisions to distort markets in
order to promote national industries
2) "Buy National" policies
•
•
•
•
Sarkozy 2012: “Free trade, yes. Disloyal competition, no.
Europe that opens all its public-procurement markets when
others do not open them at all—it's no.”
EU must deal with the world with less “naïveté” (De Gucht)
Recovery and Reinvestment Act 2009 (U.S.-made steel and iron
in federally funded construction projects).
China since 2009
–
–
•
•
purchase of foreign products or services in government-invested
projects obtain approval by the relevant government authorities
expanded to other areas of government procurement, such as plans to
limit official vehicle purchases to domestic brands)
Plano Brasil Maior (August 2011) + local content requirements
Buy Indian policy (early 2012)
–
80% of telecom equipment thru domestic manufacturing by 2020
3) technical barriers and safety regulations
• TBT notifications per year (as of 2011)
– 14 for DCs, 8 for EEs
• notifications from emerging countries
– TBT total number from 506 in 2007 to 968 in 2011
– SPS from 488 in May 10-May 11 to 519 in May 11-May 12
– CN certification requirements for imported wind turbine
generators (2011)
– IN certification of seven new steel products to conform to
national standards
– China RoHS rules which mirrored EU restrictions on the
use of hazardous substances in electrical and electronic
equipment.
4) controls on foreign investment
• Indonesia
– 40% cap on ownership of any domestic commercial banks
– foreign mining investors to reduce ownership to 49% within 10
years, starting from the 6° year of commencement of
production.
• Argentina
– 15% cap on foreigners' ownership of productive rural land + 30%
for foreigners of the same nationality (2011)
– expropriation of 51% of Repsol shares in YPF (2012)
• India
– shelved legislation to open its retail sector to foreign companies,
and in early 2012, a finance bill was proposed to allow India to
retroactively tax the sale of Indian assets by non-Indian entities as
far back as 1962, in an attempt to shore up tax revenues.
Is the EU naif?
• public-procurement market accounts for 15-20% of GDP
• some 40 countries have signed up to the governmentprocurement agreement (GPA) to open public contracts.
– About €350 billion of EU contracts are open to foreign bidders
– twice as much as in America and 13 times as much as in Japan
– China is not a signatory, despite years of negotiations.
• EC ideas
– exclude tenders that contain more than 50% of goods and services
from foreign countries not covered by GPA or other accords
– allow national governments, municipalities and other bodies (though
only with explicit EC support) to reserve contracts above €5m to
bidders with 50% domestic content.
Doha development round
• launched by the World Trade Organisation in 2001
• Multilateral deals mean common standards and lower
barriers for all
• DDR is dead in all but name
• the cause of liberalisation is being advanced by RTAs
– from around 70 in 1990 to over 300 today.
– China-ASEAN Free-Trade Area (30% of the world's population in 2010)
+ Colombia and Peru w/EU, US, KR latest, EU-Singapore, announced
on December 16th.
– Bigger deals are on the horizon
• between EU and US (could be struck in 2013) and Japan (2014?)
• Trans-Pacific Partnership between US and Pacific countries (2013)
East Asian countries are likely to emerge
as the largest trading bloc by 2015
Southern Multinationals?
Emerging firms are superseding companies
from established countries
Source: Fortune magazine; A.T. Kearney analysis
An increase in deals between developing and
developed countries
Source: Dealogic; A.T. Kearney analysis
Southern Multinationals?
Firms from both developed and developing
countries target the same industries
Source: Dealogic; A.T. Kearney analysis
Table 2: Outward FDI, Top 20 Emerging Economies, 1980-2006 (US$Millions)
Home Country
1980
1990
2000
2006
Rank (2006)
South Africa
5 541
15 004
32 333
43 499
1
Argentina
5 970
6 057
19 276
24 047
Brazil
38 545
41 044
51 946
87 049
3
6
Chile
885
1 149
11 154
26 787
4
13
Colombia
136
402
2 989
9 960
5
20
Venezuela
23
1 221
7 676
11 559
6
19
Mexico
1 632
2 672
8 273
35 144
7
11
Panama
730
3 876
10 507
21 176
8
15
British Virgin Islands
..
875
67 132
123 512
9
3
Cayman Islands
72
648
20 788
40 395
10
10
- 2
14
1 938
11 830
11
18
China
..
4 455
27 768
73 330
12
7
Hong Kong
148
11 920
388 380
688 974
13
1
Korea
127
2 301
26 833
46 760
14
8
Taiwan
13 009
30 356
66 655
113 910
15
5
India
78
124
1 859
12 964
16
17
Indonesia
6
86
6 940
17 350
17
16
Malaysia
305
753
15 878
27 830
18
12
Singapore
623
7 808
56 766
117 580
19
4
-
-
20 141
156 824
20
2
United Arab Emirates
Russia
9
14
Source: OECD, June 2009
Southern Multinationals?
Surging corporate bond spreads
Emerging-market corporate bond (CEMBI) spreads
Jan 2007 – Feb 2009
35
Southern Multinationals?
Basis points
25
15
5
-5
-15
Jan/07
Apr/07
Source: JPMorgan
Jul/07
Oct/07
Jan/08
Apr/08
Jul/08
Oct/08
Policy implications
What consequences for OECD countries?
• More competition in developing countries (e.g., resources
in Africa) : Southern FDI as an alternative to MNCs from
the North ?
• A subtle game: OECD MNCs maintain complex and
multi-level relations (e.g. Chevron-CNOOC, competing
for Unocal, cooperating elsewhere)
• FDI promotion: pro-active policies to attract FDI from
emerging economies
• As in the case of developing countries, issues related to
impact have to be considered.
Chercheurs
Chercheurs, en %
DIRD par
Publications
(milliers)
du total mondial
chercheur (millier
scientifiques
de dollars Ppa)
2002
2009
2002
2007
2002
2007
Croissan
% total
ce
mondiale
2002/08
2007
Brésil
72
125*
1,2
1,7
181
162
110,6
2,7
Russie
492
442
8,5
6,5
32
50
6,2
2,7
Inde
116
155*
2,3
2,2
103
127
91,7
3,7
Chine
811
1152
13,9
19,7
48
72
174,7
10,6
BRIC
1490
1844
25,9
30,1
91
103
95,8
19,7
OCDE
3588
4200
61,7
57,6
184
216
22,3
76,4
Brazil
• in 1906, Alberto Santos Dumont claimed to have built the world’s first
practical airplane following the Wright Brothers demonstration
• Research workforce capacity and investment are expanding rapidly,
offering many new possibilities in a diversifying research portfolio
• Relative to the rest of the world, has exceptional capacity in biologybased disciplines (40% of the world’s bio-ethanol) and research
related to natural resources
• main international partners are led by G7 economies. It also has
growing links with Portugal, and appears to be a key player in an
emerging regional network.
• produces over 500k new graduates and about 10k PhD researchers
each year, a similar number to FR and KR (10-fold increase in 20 yrs)
Russia
• The old Soviet Union was a scientific force to be reckoned with. The
1957 launch of the Sputnik satellite literally changed the practice of
world science, spurring not only the “space race” with the United
States but a new global era of government investment in science and
technology
• budgets for science and technology have been sharply reduced
(budgets for research amounting to 3-5% of comparably sized
institutes in the United States)
• Russian scientists are aging
• serious “brain drain” dates from the early 1990s
• decline in the prestige of science as a profession
India
• The tradition of science in India extends back millennia, with
Aryabhatta, Bhaskara, Brahmagupta, and others still celebrated for
their foundational contributions to the fields of mathematics,
astronomy, and chemistry.
• notable scientific successes via government directives such as the
Scientific Policy Resolution (1958), the Technology Policy Statement
(1983), and Science and Technology Policy (2003)
• government spending on science research currently accounts for
roughly 0.9% of GDP; by 2012, the figure is expected to rise to 1.2%
• availability of qualified researchers has not kept pace with the
increased funding
• “brain drain”  “talent circulation”  return of expatriate researchers
China
• more than half of the nation’s technologies, including atomic energy,
space science, high-energy physics, biology, computer science, and
information technology, have reached or are close to a recognizable
international level of achievement
– successful launch in October 2003 of the “Shenzhou V” manned spacecraft made
China the third country to master manned spaceflight technology.
– The ‘Moon Probe’ project started in February 2004 forecasts that China will soon
launch unmanned probes to the moon and is targeted to gather moon soil samples
before 2020.
• state programs for science and technology (Key Technologies
Research and Development Program, 863 Program, 973 Program)
• now ranks third worldwide in volume of Gross Expenditure on R&D
• current number of university students studying has reached 25 million,
a five-fold increase in only nine years
Global knowledge challenges
• Knowledge as an essential input as problem solving tool for
global challenges ranging from agriculture, health, to energy
saving, climate change to migration
• Education very differentiated in terms of bilateral international
relations (Bologna agreement spread to 36 countries)
• Technology/innovation (local competitiveness: Lisbon logic:
strong internal focus employment, increased tradability of
technology output (licences, firms’ driven, etc.)
• Different public-private involvement with on the public side a
national tax payer obsessions (geographically bounded)
• Rapidly growing different costs factors: researchers’ costs in
China (10 to 20% of US/Europe) as opposed to manufacturing
(30%)
• Different mobility factors: researchers/highly skilled much more
mobile.
EU27 Innovation Lead vis-à-vis BRIC Countries
European Innovation Scoreboard (EIS) 2009
EU27-BRIC comparison
• although the lead of the EU27 towards each of the
BRIC countries is still significant, there are signs that
IN and in particular CN are closing their gap
– BR is outperforming in ICT expenditures and Knowledgeintensive services exports
– CN is outperforming in ICT expenditures and High-tech
exports
– IN is outperforming in ICT expenditures and Knowledgeintensive services exports
– RU is outperforming in Tertiary education and Researchers
CO2 emissions
N-11
5y Average GDP
Population (2005, mn) 2005 GDP (US$bn) Growth Rate (20002005)
2005 GDP Per
Capita (US$)
Bangladesh
144
61
5.4%
422
Egypt
78
91
4.0%
1,170
Indonesia
242
272
4.6%
1,122
Iran
68
203
5.7%
2,989
Korea
49
814
5.2%
16,741
Mexico
106
753
2.6%
7,092
Nigeria
129
94
5.1%
733
Pakistan
162
120
4.1%
737
Philippines
88
98
4.7%
1,115
Turkey
70
349
4.3%
5,013
Vietnam
84
47
7.2%
566
The world in 2000 and in 2040
(Shares of world GDP at PPP)
2000
2040
2040*
United States
22
14
14
EU-15/27
21
6
12
China
11
40
26
Others
46
41
50
* Goldman Sachs
Source: Robert Fogel (2009)
Expected average annual growth
rates over next 50 years
7
6
5
%
4
3
5.8
4.7
2
1
3.7
3.3
Brazil
Russia
1.5
0
G7
Source: Goldman Sachs
India
China
Largest Economies in 2005
14,000
GDP (2005 US$bn)
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
ra
zi
l
In
di
a
R
us
si
a
B
Ita
ly
K
Fr
an
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U
Ja
pa
G
n
er
m
an
y
C
hi
na
U
S
0
hi
na
U
S
In
d
Ja ia
pa
Br n
a
M z il
ex
R ic o
G us s
er i a
m
an
y
U
F K
In ra n
do ce
ne
N si a
ig
e
Ko ri a
re
a
I
C tal y
an
Vi ad
et a
na
Tu m
Ph rk
i li ey
pp
in
Eg es
Pa y p
ki t
st
an
Ira
n
N
et Sp
h a
Ba erl a in
n g nd
la s
de
Po sh
Sw l an
ed d
en
C
The Largest Economies in 2050
2005 US$bn
The Largest Economies in 2050
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Labor Force
1200
Labor force,
millions
1000
800
600
400
Brazil
China
India
Russia
Germany
Japan
US
200
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
87
Working Age Peaks Later Than in Developed
World
% of total
population
Working Age Population
Projected To Decline
%
Projected Population Growth Rates
2.0
70
working age population = share
of population aged 15-60
68
Brazil
China
1.5
66
India
64
Russia
1.0
G6
62
60
0.5
58
0.0
56
54
52
Brazil
Russia
India
China
G6
-0.5
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 -1.0
US Census Bureau
2001
2008
2015
2022
2029
2036
2043
88
2050
Population aged 60 years or over
Number
(million)
Country or
area
2009
Percentage of
total population
2050
2009
2050
Share of
persons 80
years or over
2009
2050
World
737
2 008
11
22
14
20
More developed
regions
264
416
21
33
20
29
Less developed
regions
473
1 592
8
20
11
17
Brazil
19
64
10
29
14
22
Russia
25
37
18
32
16
19
India
89
316
7
20
9
13
China
160
440
12
31
12
23
16
22
26
39
22
34
Italy
UN-DESA, Population Division