A joint report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and the
Latin America and the Caribbean Region of the World Bank
Crime, Violence and
Development:
trends, costs and policy options
in the Caribbean
Outline…
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Conventional and organized crime in the
Caribbean: patterns and trends
Why is the Caribbean so violent?
Development impacts
In-depth analyses:
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Youth violence
Deportees
Drug trafficking
Gun trafficking
Criminal justice reform
Some policy recommendations
Homicide rates by world region, 2002
Great heterogeneity in levels,
similar trends
Homicide rates in Guyana:
Police and Public Health Sources
100
91
90
Murders per 100,000
80
79
74
67
70
60
51
50
40
33
30
20
10
0
1999
2000
Police
Ministry of Health
Source: Guyana Bureau of Statistics, 2005.
2001
Murders per 100,000 Population: Anguilla
17
Police recorded murders per 100,000
18
16
16
14
12
10
10
9
10
8
8
6
4
2
0
0
0
0
0
1995 1996
1997 1998
1999 2000
Source: Anguilla Statistics Unit
2001 2002
2003 2004
Assault Rates in Caribbean and
Comparison Countries
Bahamas
1697
Swaziland
754
Jamaica
219
Barbados
103
93
Dominica
Worldwide Average
10
Singapore
2.5
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Recorded Assaults per 100,000 population
Source: Crime Trends Surveys – United Nations (various years).
1400
1600
180
Rape Rates in Caribbean and Comparison
Countries
133
Bahamas
121
Swaziland
112
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
51
Jamaica
45
St. Kitts and Nevis
34
Dominica
25
Barbados
18
Trinidad and Tobago
15
Worldwide Average
0
Saudi Arabia
0
20
40
60
80
100
Reported Incidents of Rape per 100,000
Source: Crime Trends Surveys – United Nations (various years).
120
140
Share of cocaine
Share of Cocaine Flowing to the United
States by Transport Corridors
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
11
30
3
43
59
54
1998
1999
1
2
1
1
33
26
27
22
66
72
72
77
2000
2001
2002
2003
Central America/Mexico
Caribbean
Source: U.S. National Drug Intelligence Center, various years.
10
12
90
88
2004
2005
Direct
# of kidnappings per 100,000 population
Kidnappings per 100,000 Population
in Trinidad and Tobago
19
20
17
18
18
16
14
12
13
12
10
10
10
8
6
4
2
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
100
Homicide rates and inequality
Haiti
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
10
Guyana
Trinidad & Tobago
1
R2=0.249
2
R
R2=0.249
=0.249
.2
.3
.4
.5
Gini coefficient of income inequality
.6
100
Homicide rates and education
R2=0.289
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
10
Guyana
1
Trinidad & Tobago
Barbados
2
4
6
8
Average years of education for adults
10
12
Cross-Country Determinants of
Crime Rates
Variable
Constant
Lagged dependent variable
Growth rate
Average income (log)
Income inequality
(1)
Homicide
rate
0.914
(0.458)
0.833
(0.038)
-0.017
(0.010)
-0.089
(0.040)
0.003
(0.005)
**
**
*
**
(2)
Robbery
rate
(3)
Homicide
rate
(4)
Robbery
rate
-1.107
(0.531)
0.902
(0.031)
-0.026
(0.012)
0.174
(0.050)
0.003
(0.005)
0.998
(0.453)
0.808
(0.039)
-0.017
(0.010)
-0.094
(0.039)
0.002
(0.005)
0.343
(0.139)
-1.108
(0.527)
0.891
(0.032)
-0.026
(0.011)
0.178
(0.050)
0.002
(0.005)
0.264
(0.148)
Caribbean dummy
Number of countries
Number of observations
R-squared
61
182
0.746
54
179
0.878
**
**
**
**
61
182
0.754
**
**
*
**
**
54
179
0.880
**
**
**
**
*
Summary of Micro-Analysis of Risk
Factors for Criminal Victimization
Dominican
Republic
Jamaica
Haiti
Property
Property
Violent
Property
Crime
Crime
Crime
Crime
(Burglary/ (Burglary/
(Murder) (Robbery) Mugging) Mugging)
Household-level
Consumption/income
Female-headed
Young men
Education level
Community/province-level
Consumption/income
Inequality
Female-headed
Young men
Education level
Population density
Urban
Reporting rate
+
+
+
+
-
+
not sig.
not sig.
+
+
not sig.
not sig.
not sig.
not sig.
+
+
+
+
-
+
not sig.
+
+
+
-
not sig.
+
+
+
+
not sig.
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
+
n/a
Note: + and – refer to sign of statistically significant coefficients from probit
regressions of household victimization
Increase in Annual Per Capita Income Growth
Boost to Annual Economic Growth Rate:
Reducing Homicide Rate to Costa Rican Level
6%
5.4%
5.4%
Haiti
Jamaica
5%
4%
3%
2%
1.8%
1.7%
Dominican
Republic
Guyana
1%
0%
Impact of Crime on Business
Practices in Jamaica
Impact of Crime on Various Business Practices
51%
Increased cost of security
Negative impact on plans for
business expansion
39%
Negative impact on
investments to improve
productivity
37%
Negative impact on worker
productivity
22%
Increased cost of services
purchased
18%
13%
Other
0
10
20
30
40
50
% of Firms Reporting "Significant", "Somewhat Significant", or "Highly Significant" Impact
Source: 2001 Firm Victimization Survey, described in Francis et al. (2003).
60
Cross-Country Regression Estimates:
Effect of Violent Crime on Economic
Growth
Variable
Income
Inequality
Male education
Female education
Price level of investment
Homicide rate
Period Dummies
Countries
Observations
Estimates
-0.1362*
(.017)
0.0013*
(.0005)
0.0120
(.0168)
-0.0084
(.0179)
0.0000
(.0001)
-0.0021*
(.0006)
Yes
28
32
Source: World Bank (2006b).
Notes: Standard errors are shown in parentheses.
* significant at 5% level
Reducing crime pays:
If the Caribbean were to reduce
its homicide rate by one-third…
…per capita economic growth
could more than double.
Youth as victims of violence:
homicide rates
Year
Total
1995-1997
14.9
All
Ages
Males
26.1
Brazil
1995a
16.7
Chile
1994
Cuba
Colombia
All Ages
Female
Male
Age15-29
Female
Age15-29
--
48.4
--
23.0
4.1
81.2
6.5
3.0
5.4
0.8
6.7
--
1997
6.2
9.6
2.7
18.4
5.7
61.6
116.8
9.0
212.5
15.0
Dominican
Republic
1995
2002a
2005b
10.2
26.41
19.7
49.9
El Salvador
1993
55.6
108.4
2.12
4.4
8.4
35.3
-133.1
3.22
-8.8
Guyana
1994-1996
6.6
11.8
--
--
--
Jamaica
2004a
55.7
102.1
10.5
188.0
14.8
Trinidad and
Tobago
1994
12.1
17.1
6.6
21.6
--
19.3
34.7
4.0
68.6
6.4
Country
Bahamas
LAC average
United States
1998
6.9
10.7
3.1
23.6
4.6
Canada
1997
1.4
1.9
1.0
3.2
1.1
8.8
13.6
4.0
19.4
4.4
World
Source: World Health Organization. 2003. World Report on Health and Violence. Geneva.
a: Based on data obtained from World Health Organization (August 2006).
b: Estimates from National Police Statistics.
Homicide Deaths by Age in the Dominican
Republic, 2000-2005
100
90
Number of deaths
80
70
2005
2002
60
50
2000
40
30
20
10
0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Age
Source: Dominican Republic National Police, unpublished data
Criminal Deportations from the U.S. to the
Caribbean: 1993-2005
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Criminal Deportees from the U.S. per
100,000 Population of Home Country
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2005
Criminal Deportations to Jamaica by
Source Country: 1998-2004
Source: Social and Economic Survey of Jamaica, various years.
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1500
1000
500
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
Canada deportees (left axis)
UK deportees (left axis)
USA deportees (left axis)
Murders (right axis)
Source: Social and Economic Survey of Jamaica; Jamaica Constabulary Force.
Number of Murders
Criminal Deportations
Deportees and Murders in Jamaica:
1998-2004
Criminal Deportees to Jamaica from All Source
Countries by Crime Type: 2001-2004
Other
4%
488
Fraud and
immigration
43%
Drugs
38%
478
3
538
5
1366
495
Robbery, burglary,
larceny
4%
Firearms and
violent crime
11%
Source: Calculated from Social and Economic Survey of Jamaica, various years
Age on Deportation from the U.S. of
Jamaican Criminal Deportees
Source: Headley et al, 2005.
Summary of Policy Recommendations
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Good policy requires good information
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Reformed and revitalized criminal justice
systems are essential
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GIS data for policing and integrated programs (in
larger cities)
Victimization surveys
Reform of legislation is only the first step;
institutions matter
Performance indicators are crucial step toward
professionalization and performance management
But avoid exclusive reliance on criminal justice
systems; prevention initiatives can be highly
cost-effective
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Negative externalities for the Caribbean
are clear in the case of:
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Gun control is crucial to decrease the
lethality of violent crime
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Drug trafficking
Deportees
Guns
Gun registries, marking, tracking
Interdiction in ports
Priority areas for policy research
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What works (especially in the area of youth
violence prevention)
Role of deportees in crime