05.03.2015 0:23:00 The Football Industry In Pakistan Challenges and Opportunities March 2015 What can Pakistan do to regain leadership in the global football industry? Seizing opportunities Pakistan has the capacity to regain leadership power in the football industry, but it needs to respond to changing markets. This report highlights some key trends and points to several areas of potential growth. Inflatable Balls Figure 1. World’s Biggest Importers The demand for inflatable balls(1) has been Of Inflatable Balls (2013) growing steadily in the last years (see Figure 2): total exports of inflatable balls have more than tripled between 2000 and 2010. Even if a small slow down of the industry has been registered after the crisis of 2009, the demand seems to be regaining its former levels of growth. Europe Europe is by far dominating the imports market of inflatable balls (see Figure 3a). However, the continent never recovered its pre-crisis level. Germany and France are the two main importers of the region (see Figure 4). They respectively account for 18% and 13% of European imports. While France’s imports were always relatively steady, Germany’s imports have leveled off after 2009. Figure 2. Increasing Demand for Inflatable Balls The United Kingdom is the third European importer with a share 9% of the region’s imports, yet its imports have been shrinking since 2010. Others countries have substantial shares of the market (Spain, Italy and Belgium), but their imports have been rather volatile over the years. (1) Most of this report’s statistics are based on the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, which does not provide data at the football level but rather at the inflatable ball level. For this reason, we will refer sometimes at inflatable balls instead of footballs. However, there are good reasons to think that the market of footballs follows the same trends than the inflatable balls market. 2 February 2015 Figure 3.a Total Imports, by Continent Europe is also the second worldwide exporter of Figure 3.b Total Exports, by Continent North and Central America inflatable balls (see Figure 3b). In fact a couple The United States is the biggest importer of footballs European countries are also producers of inflatable worldwide (see Figure 1). In 2013, the US accounted balls (mainly Hungary and Italy for 78% of North American imports and 22% of global (2)). The relatively low production levels and the high labor costs in imports. these countries suggest that the inflatables balls Unlike Europe, the North And Central American produced in Europe are not substitutes to Asian imports have recovered their pre-crisis level. The balls. Therefore, Europe should not be seen as a region even continues to experience a high level of threatening production competitor. (2) BTC, Trade for Development (2010) EU Market for fair (and sustainable) Sports Balls. Figure 4. European Imports 3 February 2015 growth. This growth is mainly led by the United States, which had the biggest change in imports between 2012 Figure 5. South American Imports and 2013 (see Table 1). South America Europe and North America have a long history of football imports. On the other hand, South America became a significant importer in the past years. Its rising demand for inflatable balls makes it an interesting emerging market. (See Figure 3.a) Some countries of South America record a surprisingly high growth (see Figure 5). Brazil’s imports have skyrocketed since 2009, barely slowing down during the crisis. Brazil was officially accepted as a host for the World Cup of 2014 in 2007. This might explain the deviation between this country and the rest of South American countries in that year. Africa and Oceania Africa and Oceania have a small role in the market for inflatable balls. Their imports have also recorded an increase in the last decade (from 10 mil. US$ in 2000 to 30 mil. US$ in 2013), but their small level of Other South American countries have experienced a steady growth of imports in inflatable balls in the last demand and their geographical isolation do not make them interesting targets for development. five years. Even if the levels of demand are still far behind in this region compared to Europe or the United States, their high growth could make them reach significant levels of imports in the next years. The growing demand for inflatable balls in this region represents an Asia Asia has a substantial level of imports in inflatable balls, and its proximity makes it an interesting opportunity for Asian countries. More details on this region are studied in Section 3 of this report. interesting opportunity. Table 1. Changes in Imports Country Increase in Imports (mil. US$) 2007 to 2008 2008 to 2009 2009 to 2010 2010 to 2011 2011 to 2012 2012 to 2013 USA 8.5 -40.3 41.3 -7.8 18.7 28.8 Turkey 4.3 -2.5 0.8 3.3 0.9 7.6 Mexico -2.2 -6.1 12.3 -5.5 3.2 6.4 Argentina 1.6 -2.3 3.1 2.5 -4.3 6.3 Peru 0.9 0.6 3.5 -0.1 -0.6 2.9 Source: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database 4 February 2015 5 Table 2.a Changes in Imports (2008 – 2013) Table 2.b Changes in Imports (2010 – 2013) Increase in Imports (mil. US$) Increase in Imports (mil. US$) USA 40.6 USA 39.6 Brazil 15.4 Turkey 11.7 Japan 12.5 Russian 7.7 Russia 10.9 Brazil 7.5 Mexico 10.3 Japan 6.8 Turkey 10 Argentina 4.6 Saudi Arabia 9.5 Mexico 4.1 Peru 6.3 Colombia 2.9 Colombia 5.5 Saudi Arabia 2.8 Argentina 5.3 Belgium 2.8 Table 3.a Growth in Imports (2008 – 2013) Table 3.b Growth in Imports (2010 – 2013) Growth in Imports Growth in Imports Mauritania 34.6 Cambodia 17.2 Albania 31.3 Zambia 8.7 Burundi 5.8 Sao Tome and Principe 19.8 Qatar 4.4 Zambia 9.8 Malawi 2.3 Vietnam 9.2 Mauritania 2.3 Burundi 8.3 Qatar 7.2 Sao Tome and Principe 2 Palau 5.3 Viet Nam 1.7 Kazakhstan 3.3 Bermuda 1.4 Rwanda 3.2 Kyrgyzstan 1.3 February 2015 Football Imports in the U.S. The United States Bureau of the census provides data on imports of footballs in the United States. This data enables us to carry a more detailed analysis of the football industry in this country. The United States is both the biggest importer, and the host for the biggest sports brands worldwide. This makes it an interesting case study. In 2013, more than 99% of US imports came from South East Asian countries. While China accounted for 68 % of the imports, Pakistan’s had stabilized at 17%. Between 1990 and 2003, Pakistan was the main importer of footballs in the United States. In 2003 China took the first place in US imports while Pakistani exports continued to decrease. Other smaller importers have increased their share of imports in the last years (See Figure 6.b). In Figure 6.a Main Importers into the US 6 particular, Vietnam and Indonesia have more than doubled their exports to the US between 2012 and 2013. While Indonesia’s exports seem to have slowed down in 2014, Vietnam’s exports continue to increase (1). Korea, which was the main exporter of footballs in the US in 1989, accounts today for less than 1% of the football imports in the US (see Figure 6.a). Labor Costs Figure 7 shows hourly wages in the Primary Textile Industry for different Asian countries. Hourly wages for workers in the football industry are not available in the literature. However, a Werner international provides data on workers in the primary textile industry. Workers in both industries have similar skills and education, which (1) For 2014, the data was computed with the data from January to November, expanded to the whole year proportionally to 2013. Figure 6.b Small Asian Importers into the US February 2015 makes the wages in both industries comparable. Both Vietnam and Indonesia have relatively small average wages for workers in the textile industry. This Figure 7. Hourly Wages in the Textile Industry makes their labor force an interesting comparative advantage. Producers in labor-intensive industries are seeking for low labor costs. This explains their increasing share of US imports in the last years. Labor costs in China have significantly increased in 2007. In 2013, Thailand and China have average hourly wages as high as four to five times Pakistani wages in the textile industry. Pakistan has the second smallest average wage for these workers. This makes the Pakistani labor force an important asset. the quantity of footballs imported in the United States, Quality China and Pakistan produce two different types of balls. While Pakistan produces mainly hand-stitched balls, China produces machine-stitched balls. Handstitched balls have the reputation of being of higher quality than machine-stitched balls. The U.S. Bureau of the Census provides data on which enables us to compute the per unit price of footballs imported in the US. Figure 8 presents the perunit price of footballs imported in the US by country, across years. Balls exported from Pakistan are paid at a higher price than from China (2) , which is consistent with the difference in quality between these two countries. The prices of footballs exported from other countries seem to fluctuate more than Pakistan and China; this Figure 8. Per Unit Price of Footballs may be due to the smaller quantities these countries import. Overall importers are willing to buy footballs from Pakistan at a higher price. They believe in the quality of Pakistan’s soccer balls. (1) According to the USA Census Data on imports, in 2014 the US was paying 2.9 US$ for balls imported from China, while it paid 5.11 US$ for ball imported from Pakistan. 7 February 2015 The Football Industry in Asia Asia plays a key role in the market of footballs. Since the beginning of the 2000s, Pakistan has kept a Asia is the continent with the highest exports of constant production. Yet, Pakistan’s share of global inflatable balls: it accounts for 73% of global exports. exports has been shrinking from 23% in 2006 to 11.1 % It is also the only continent with positive net in 2013 (see Figure 9.a). According to some authors exports (it exports more than it imports). the main reason why Pakistan has not kept its share in (2) , the global market is that in this country the industry has Asian Exports been unable to keep up with the new technology. This On the production side, China is the leading exporter adds up to Pakistan’s high lending interest rate, which is of inflatable balls in the world. China’s production is twice as high as in China (12.0% in 2013). concentrated on machine-stitched balls. The machine The management’s unwillingness to adopt new stitched balls allow a higher productivity than hand- techniques combined with the high cost of capital in the stitched balls: while workers produce on average 36 country and the low availability of loans limits the balls a day with a machine, they can only hand-stitch incentives for investments. five to seven footballs during the same amount of time.(1) At the same time several other countries in Asia emerged as competitors on the inflatable balls market. Pakistan is the second exporter of inflatable balls. Figure 9.a Main Asian Exporters 8 Figure 9.b Other Asian Exporters February 2015 Figure 10.a Main Asian Importers Figure 10.b Other Asian Importers Two countries have seen significant production growth: Asian Imports Vietnam and Indonesia. These countries have long been In addition of being the world’s biggest producer of inactive in the industry, but their shares of the market inflatable balls, Asia has also a rising and interesting have rapidly increased in the last years. In both Vietnam import market. and Indonesia, the average wage of a primary textile Japan and Korea are the two main inflatable balls worker is among the lowest in the area. These countries importers in the region. These countries have an have used this comparative advantage to capture share important role in the global demand for balls: Japan is of the markets. the world’s third biggest importer, while Korea is the 11th. In 2013, Thailand’s production accounts for 8 % of Asian production, which is almost half as big as Demand in these countries has been increasing these last years, especially in Japan (see Figure 10.a). Pakistan’s production. However, Thailand’s share of At smaller levels, other countries have rising imports production has been slightly declining, while the average of inflatable balls. In particular, Vietnam and Indonesia wage in this country seems to be among the highest in have more than doubled their imports between 2012 and the region. 2013 (see Figure 10.b). India is also among the low labor-cost countries, but Given their proximity, Japan, Korea, Vietnam and its share of the total exports has remained constant at Indonesia represent good opportunities for new Asian 2% for the past years. This country does not seem to markets in the coming years. arise as a strong competitor on this market. (1) UNIDO (2008) Diagnostic Study – Sports Goods Cluster of Sialkot, Pakistan, Lahore, UNIDO. (2) Asif Tanveer, M. (2012) Declining Market Share of Pakistan in Football Industry. Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences Vol. 1 No. 11 [33-42] 9 February 2015 The Football Industry in Pakistan According to the World Bank, Figure 12. Pakistan’s Main Export Destinations Pakistan’s economic growth is picking up, driven by industry and service sectors. (1) Inflatable balls exports reached their peak in 2006 and then fell to their lowest value in 2009 (see Figure 11). In 2013, exports in inflatable balls represented 0.2 % of total exports in Pakistan. During the school year of 2012/2013, the sports good exports represented 334 million US$. Among these exports, 43% are footballs exports (143 million US$) and 37% are gloves exports (124 million US$). Footballs play a key role in the sporting goods industry. Figure 11. Pakistani Exports of Inflatable Balls The government seems to have seized the importance of the market, and considers it a valuable part of Pakistan’s economy. In 2007, an international airport was launched in Sialkot, Pakistan’s main hub for football production. The city is becoming a hub at the international level. (1) 10 The World Bank (2014) Pakistan Development Update. February 2015 Figure 13. Inflatable Balls Importers from Pakistan Which countries import footballs from Pakistan? Data on exports show that Germany is the largest destination for Pakistan’s inflatable balls (see Figure 13). In 2013 Germany imported 12% of Pakistan’s inflatable balls. Belgium is the second importer and imports almost 10% of inflatable balls exported from Pakistan. Exports to Belgium have increased steadily since 2008. It is hard to know the reason for this rapid growth, but it has to be noted that Belgium’s national team went from 54th on the international FIFA ranking in 2008, to 11th in 2013. This has certainly increased the nation’s interest for football. Belgium’s exports of inflatable balls have also increased in the same period, which shows the rise of Altogether, the European countries import more than 57% of the sports goods from Pakistan. If the United States and Europe are the main worldwide importers of inflatable balls, there has also been an increase in the demand for balls in Southern America. In particular, the exports to Brazil have highly increased since 2009. In 2004, Brazil learned it would be the host of the World Cup 2014, and in 2007 is officially announced. At the same time, the Brazuca ball was designed, and Pakistan was chosen over China to be the producer of the ball. Today, Brazil is the fourth importer of inflatable balls from Pakistan, and accounts for 7% of exports in this good. the industry in the country. 11 February 2015 Executive Summary Overall, Pakistan has lost a significant share of the Asia also has an interesting rising market. Two global production of footballs. To keep up with the countries have substantial levels of imports: industry, Pakistan producers have to focus on the Japan and Korea. These countries have seen an opportunities of the market. increase in their net imports of inflatable balls and are a new opportunity for Pakistan’s Pakistan’s main competitor is China. However, exports. China’s labor costs have been increasing these last years, which may constitute a comparative reluctant to adopt the new technology and to higher quality hand-stitched balls while China provide training to their workers. The industry produces machine-stitched balls. Pakistan has to needs to focus more on the technological promote the quality of its balls and differentiate changes while keeping the high quality of its his product from the lower quality machine products. Other smaller exporters as Vietnam and Indonesia have also increased their share of the market in the last years. Their labor costs are also among the smallest in Asia. These two countries are the most threatening competitors. In Pakistan, managers in the industry have been advantage for Pakistan. Also, Pakistan produces stitched balls. Pakistan exports its footballs to North America and Europe (Germany and Belgium), but the demand has been rising in other countries and will soon form a rising market in need of producers. These countries are primarily in Latin America and Brazil is the biggest one. References: Data: Data on exports and imports of inflatable balls come from the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database. http://comtrade.un.org/data/ Data on sporting goods and Pakistan exports from 2009 to 2013 is available through the Pakistani Government website. http://www.tdap.gov.pk/tdap-statistics.php The US Government gives data on US imports (United States International Trade Commission). http://dataweb.usitc.gov/ Werner International (Management consultant to the world textile, apparel & fashion industry) has data on labor costs in the primary textiles industry. Surveys on wages are available for 2006, 07, 08, 11 and 2014. http://www.wernerinternational.com/html/hourly_wage_report/register.html Other: Asif Tanveer M., Rizvi S. and Riaz W. (2012) Declining Market Share of Pakistan in Football Industry, Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences. UNIDO (2006), Leather Goods Cluster Sialkot – Pakistan, Diagnostic Study. Arifeen M. (2010) Inflating Pakistan’s Football Industry, The International New York Times, The Express Tribune. 13 February 2015