Arizona’s Water Situation
Arizona League of Cities and Towns
August 20, 2015
Thomas Buschatzke, Director
Arizona Department of Water Resources
Water: Front Page News Coverage
California’s Water Crisis
• Choices - Too little too late
 25% mandatory reductions (instituted in 2015)
 Late adoption of groundwater management regulations
(2014)
• Environmental requirements & lack of storage
• Arizona v. California & Central Arizona Project
 Arizona sued to ensure Colorado River Rights
 Arizona was victorious
 California gained higher priority through Congressional
negotiations authorizing the CAP
 California does not take a shortage
Why is Arizona not in a crisis? We’ve evolved.
•
•
•
•
•
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Salt River Project 1904
Yuma Irrigation Districts
Colorado River Compact 1922
Arizona v. California 1963
Central Arizona Project 1968-1996
Groundwater Management Act of 1980 & Amendments
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Creation of Arizona Department of Water Resources
Mandatory Water Conservation Requirements
Drought Preparedness Plan Requirements
Assured Water Supply Program
Underground Storage and Recovery Program & Arizona Water Banking
Authority
• 9.0 MAF stored for future use
Arizona’s Water Management Story
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
10.5
9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
1957
1973
1980
1990
Adjusted Gross Domestic Income
Year
2000
Population
Total Water Use
(in million acre-feet)
2010
2013
Water Use (Acre-Feet)
Population
(in millions)
Gross Domestic Income
(in billions)
1957
7.1maf
1.1
$11.99
2013
7maf
6.58
$229.34
Change from 1957-2013
-0.1%
472%
1752%
Million (acre-feet or people)
$ Billion
Water Use, Population
and Economic Growth (1957 – 2013)
Arizona’s Water Supply
Annual Water Budget 2013
Water Source
Million Acre-Feet (MAF)
% of Total
SURFACE WATER
Colorado River
2.8
40 %
CAP
1.6
23%
On-River
1.2
17%
In-State Rivers
1.2
17%
GROUNDWATER
2.7
40%
RECLAIMED WATER
0.2
3%
Total
Salt-Verde
.7
Gila & others
.5
7 MAF
Source: ADWR, 2015
Arizona’s Water Use by Sector (2013)
Arizona is not in a crisis, but does face
some challenges
Driving Forces
• 15 year ongoing drought
• Population and economic growth will increase demand for water
Short-term Challenges
• Risks to Colorado River Supply
 Shortage on the Colorado River System is likely
 Recurring Lower Basin Annual Deficit
Medium-term Challenges
• Water resources in rural areas of the state are more stressed
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Primary water source is groundwater
Lack of groundwater regulation
Lack of groundwater data
Rural areas lack the resources to address their issues
Long-term Challenges
• Growing statewide imbalance between existing water supplies and demand
projected in the next 25 years and 50 years
Short-term Drought Status
Short–term Drought Status
August 11, 2015
Short–term Drought Status
August 12, 2014
VS.
Short-term Drought Conditions
• Current: 75% of State moderate to severe conditions
• August 2014: 98% of State moderate to severe conditions
Arizona’s Historical Drought Actions
• Drought Emergency Declaration - June 1999
 Allows for governmental entities to provide response and recovery assistance to
drought stricken areas of the State
 Enables farmers and ranchers to request assistance from the Federal Government
(Farm Service Agency)
• Drought Task Force – 2003
 Established by Governor’s Executive Order 2003-12
 Culminated in adoption of the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan in 2004
• Intent to establish a flexible framework to refine drought monitoring process,
understand impacts and implement mechanisms to limit future vulnerability
• Some key elements: drought monitoring system; establishment of drought
triggers; requirement for water providers to develop drought contingency plans
• Most urgent need was rural areas because alternative supplies often limited and
local economies strongly impacted by drought
• Drought Declaration - 2007
 Orders continued implementation of the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan and
State of Arizona Emergency Response and Recovery Plan
• May 22, 2015 ICG recommendation to the Governor to keep declarations in place.
Colorado
Challenges on the Colorado River:
Probabilities of Lower Colorado River Basin
Shortage
2016
2017
2018 2019 2020
Probability of any level of
shortage (Mead ≤ 1,075 ft.)
N
47
65
66
63
1st level shortage (Mead ≤ 1,075
and ≥1,050 ft)
0
47
46
40
34
2nd level shortage (Mead <1,050
and ≥1,025 ft)
0
0
19
21
20
3rd level shortage (Mead <1,025)
0
0
0
5
9
Source: US Bureau of Reclamation CRSS Model Run – June 2015
Arizona Shortage in the Near Term
Arizona’s Allocation – 2.8 MAF
Tier 1 Shortage = 320,000 AF
Tribes,
Industry, Ag
Underground Storage
Ag
River
Cities
Cities & Tribes
City of Yuma
& Yuma Ag
On-River
1.2 MAF
Cities
Industry &
Tribes
CAP
1.6 MAF
Cities &
Tribes
Efforts to address challenges on the Colorado River
Drought Contingency Planning
• ADWR Director serves as Arizona’s Principal on matters relating to the
Colorado River (A.R.S. 45-107(D))
• Discussions between:
 Basin States
 Department of the Interior
 Other contract holders
• Goal of discussions:
 Restore risks to levels achieved in the 2007 Guidelines
 Conserve 1.5 – 3.0 MAF in Lake Mead over the next 5 years
 Reduce the risks of Lake Mead falling below 1,000 ft. elevation as we saw
in the 2013 model projections
• Memorandum of Understanding
 Central Arizona Project = 345,000 AF
 Metropolitan Water District = 300,000 AF
 Southern Nevada Water Authority = 45,000 AF
 Bureau of Reclamation = 50,000 AF
Additional Efforts by Arizona
• Arizona Water Banking Authority
 Over the last two decades the AWBA has stored 3.4 MAF
(more than two years’ worth) of Colorado River deliveries to
Central Arizona in order to provide back-up supplies in times
of shortage over the long term.
• Mandatory municipal provider drought response plans
 Arizona water users have also stored water supplies as a
component of their water planning efforts.
• Statewide Drought Plan
Challenges in the San Simon Valley Sub-basin
• ADWR received a petition for the initiation of procedures to
designate an irrigation non-expansion area (February 2015)
 Requirements within an irrigation non-expansion area
• Prohibition on irrigating new acres
• Metering and reporting requirements for most wells that pump
over 35 gallons per minute
• No mandatory conservation requirements
• Petition signed by at least 25% of the irrigators in the sub-basin
• Public Hearing held in Bowie– May 16, 2015
• Public comment period expired on July 17, 2015
 Final water level data made available June 2, 2015
 Groundwater model made available June 17, 2015
• Director Issued Decision Determining NOT to Designate as an
irrigation non-expansion area
Arizona’s Efforts to Address Long-term Challenges
Strategic Vision for Water Supply Sustainability
Purpose: Identify strategies to help address Arizona’s future water needs and
provide a stable economy for the future.
Findings: Projected imbalance between 900,000 and 3.2 MAF over the next 25
to 100 years.
• Strategic Priorities Identified:
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Resolution of Indian and Non-Indian Water Rights Claims
Watershed/Forest Management
Weather Modification
Reclaimed Water Reuse
Enhanced Stormwater Recharge
Water Management
Importation of New Water Supplies
Conclusion
• Arizona is NOT in a crisis!
• Arizona’s water supplies are resilient because of the choices that we
made and actions that we continue to take.
• Some rural areas of the state are facing challenges due to the local
impacts of drought. ADWR will continue to work with rural communities.
• Arizona has a recovery plan in place to access stored water when needed.
• ADWR and other Arizona water managers are closely monitoring the
Colorado River and taking proactive steps to address the risk of Colorado
River shortages and improve the health of the river system.
Questions?
Thomas Buschatzke
Director
Phone: 602.771.8426
Email: tbuschatzke@azwater.gov
Website: www.azwater.gov