Summary of the Solid Precipitation Chapter and Activities

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Solid Precipitation

Daqing Yang, Barry Goodison, Paul Joe, others ??

Role of snowfall

Status of observations: gauge network, satellite, and radar

Research examples

Recommendations

1. Role of Solid Precipitation

• Significant portion of yearly precipitation in the cold regions (including the polar regions) – important indicator of climate change and variation

• Input to winter snowpack and spring snowmelt runoff in mountain and polar regions – critical element of basin water cycle and regional water resources

• Influence on large-scale land surface radiation and energy budget particularly during accumulation and melt seasons

• Effect on glacier/ice sheet accumulation/mass balance, lake/river and sea ice, seasonal frozen-ground and permafrost

• Impact to human society and activity, such as air/ground transportation, disaster prevention, agriculture, water resources management, and recreation…

2. Status of Observations -

gauges, satellite and radar

Gauge network

• Global coverage with various operational, national/regional networks.

• Manual and automatic gauges, measuring water equivalent

(amount), not snow particle size.

• Manual gauges can measure snowfall (rate) at 6-hour to daily time intervals, and auto gauges can provide hourly (or sub-hourly) snowfall (rate).

• Snow rulers are also used for snowfall observations at the national/regional networks, providing snow depth info, not SWE.

• Snow pillow/snowboard/snow depth sensor record snow accumulation changes over time - (in)direct info of snowfall.

Gauge networks/data are long-term and fundamental, defining global snowfall/climate regimes and changes.

Satellites

– Global coverage with merging data / products from IR, MV sensors and satellite radars

– Rain rate info (TRMM), also snowfall rate ???, challenge with mixed precip

– Particle size info from radars

– Operational products - GPCP blended version 2 monthly/global, 1987-present, and others????

– Problems of MV data over land, need systematical evaluation particularly over the high latitudes

– Limited validations show GPCP v2 data are not better than atmospheric reanalysis precip over northern regions (Serreze et al., 2005)

Statement of importance – Key to advance our capability of monitoring and observing (liquid/solid) precipitation globally???

Dataset Name

(Reference)

CMORPH

(Joyce et al. 2004)

Examples of RS Precip Dadasets

Data Sources and Merging Method Online Documentation Spatial & Temporal

Resol. and Coverage

0.25

o grid, 60

°

S - 60

°

N,

180

°

W - 180

°

E; 30 min.,

12/2002-present

Microwave estimates from the DMSP 13, 14 & 15

(SSM/I), the NOAA-15, 16 & 17 (AMSU-B) and the

TRMM (TMI) satellites are propagated by motion vectors derived from geostationary satellite infrared data.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produ cts/janowiak/cmorph_description.ht

ml

PERSIANN

(Hsu et al. 1997)

TRMM 3B42

(Huffman et al. 2005)

0.25

o grid, 50

°

S - 50

°

N,

180

°

W - 180

°

E; 30 min.,

3/2000-present

A neural network, trained by TRMM TMI (2A12) precipitation, was used to estimate 30 min. precipitation from infrared images from global geosynchronous satellites.

http://hydis8.eng.uci.edu/persiann/

0.25

o grid, 50

°

S - 50

°

N,

180 ° W - 180 ° E; 3-hourly,

1/1998-present

Microwave (TRMM, SSM/I, AMSR and AMSU) precipitation estimates were used to adjust IR estimates from geostationary IR observations.

http://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/precipitatio n/TRMM_README/TRMM_3B42

_readme.shtml

Merged microwave only precipitation

(X. Lin 2006, personal comm.)

2.5

o grid, up to 75

°

S -

75 ° N, 180 ° W - 180 ° E; hourly,

12/1997-present

Estimates from TRMM TMI, SSM/I on DMSP F13,

F14, F15, and

AMSR-E from AQUA were first averaged on a 0.25

o grid and then further averaged to a 2.5

o grid.

NCEP National Stage II multi-sensor hourly precipitation analysis

~4.8 km grid, continental

U.S.; hourly,

5/1996-present

About 140 WSR-88D radars over CONUS, and ~3,000 automated gauge reports were used in the analysis. http://www .emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb

/ylin/pcpanl/stage2/

– Operational products - GPCP blended version 2, monthly/2.5x2.5 grid, global, 1987-present

Summary Table: current/planned capabilities and requirements for space-based remote sensing of snowfall parameters (adopted from xxx, not done yet)

Measurement Range

Parameter

Snowfall amount

Precip/Snowfall rate

Precipitation type

Snow particle size

H

100

100

100

100

100

100

---

3

3

~0.7

1

1

0

0

0

0

L

0

0

0

0

0

Non e

0.3

0.3

C

T

O

C

T

O

C

C

T

O

T

O

C

T

O

U mm mm mm mm/ hr mm/ hr mm/ hr

---

Measurement

Accuracy

V

1

0.25

?

2-10

3

2

---

10

7

6-35

10

6

U mm mm mm cm cm

%

% cm

---

0.1

---

0.5

0.1

25

0.5

0.1

0.5

0.1

25

0.5

V

1

Spatial

U km

Resolution

V

Temporal

U day km km km km

1

12

1

6 day hr day day km

--km km km km km

12

---

1

6

1

6

12 hr

--day hr day day hr

Comment /

Principal

Driver

MODIS/SSM

I

Hydromet

AMSR-

E/TRMM

Hydromet

Transportatio n

Need HF

SAR

Hydromet e.g. AMSR-E

Hydromet

????

C = Current Capability L = Low end of measurement range U = Unit

T = Threshold Requirement (Minimum necessary) H = High end of measurement range V = Value

O= Objective Requirement (Target)

Radar network

– Only cover very limited parts of the globe (much less extensive than the gauge network)

– Expensive and can be difficult to operate and calibrate

– Mainly designed for severe weather detection, with less concern for precipitation, certainly NOT for snowfall measurements, (although being used to measure snowfall with problems for light snowfall)

– Major limitations for operational radars:

• lack of low level coverage at moderate (80 km) to long range for precipitation and this is even shorter for snowfall

• in complex terrain, the radar beam is often blocked by mountains and/or the radar is located to scan over the top of mountains and not in the valleys

– A new innovation is the deployment of a network of redundant low cost, low maintenance radars (CASA radars) to scan the low levels of the atmosphere.

Statement of importance - key to understand cloud/precipitation physics and for validation of satellite precipitation data and products.

3.

Research Examples

• gauge network and data

RS snow data validation

Shortcomings in gauge network

• Sparseness of the precipitation observation networks in the cold regions.

• Uneven distribution of measurement sites, i.e. biased toward coastal and the low-elevation areas, less stations over mountains and oceans.

• Spatial and temporal discontinuities of precipitation measurements induced by changes in observation methods and by different observation techniques used across national borders.

Biases in gauge measurements, such as wind-induced undercatch, wetting and evaporation losses, underestimate of trace and low amount of precipitation, and blowing snow into the gauges at high winds

• Data access is also difficult or costly for some regions and countries

• Decline of the networks in the northern regions/countries

Synoptic/climate stations on land above 45

N and the Arctic Ocean drifting stations

Canada

Greenland

Russia

Mongolia

China

Kazakhstan

NRCS SNOTEL / Wyoming gauge network

NRCS National

Water and Climate

Center www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snotel/Alaska/alaska.html

NOAA US CRN http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/uscrn/

National standard gauges tested in Barrow

Canadian

Nipher

Russian

Tretyakov

US 8”

Hellmann

Biases in Gauge Meaurements

(mentioned 3 times in IGOS Water Cycle Report)

• Wind-induced gauge under-catch

• Wetting and evaporation losses

• Underestimate of trace precipitation events

• Blowing snow into gauges at high winds

• Uncertainties in auto gauge systems

WMO Solid Precipitation Intercomparison

WMO double fence intercomparison reference (DFIR) in Barrow, AK D. Yang, 1998: WMO solid precipitation measurement intercomparison, final report,

WMO/TD-No. 872, WMO,

Geneva, 212pp.

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

0

Wind-induce undercatch:

WMO intercomparison results

Canadian Nipher

NWS 8" unsh

Tretyakov

NWS 8" Alter

Hellmann unsh

1 2 3 4 5 6

Wind speed at gauge height (m/s)

7 8 9

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 trace wind-loss measured

1 2 3 4 5 6

M onths

7 8 9 10 11 12

40

30

20

10

0

80

70

60

50

1 2 trace amount wind correction measured

3 4 5 6

Month

7 8 9 10 11 12

Overall mean for the NP drifting stations,

1957-90 (Yang,

1999)

Overall mean for 61 climate stations in

Siberia, 1986-

92 (Yang and

Ohata, 2001)

Bias corrections of daily precipitation data,

Barrow,

1982-83

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

(Yang et al.,

1998)

15

10

5

0

30

25

20 trace w etting loss w ind loss measured measureable trace

Comparison of Bias Corrections in the High Latitudes

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

Siberia Greenland Arctic basin Alaska NWT

Regions

150

Mean Gauge-Measured (Pm) and Bias-Corrected (Pc)

Precipitation, and Correction Factor (CF) for January

Yang et al., 2005, GRL

1

2

0

1

2

0

1

2

0

6

0

6

0

6

0

30

150

30

150

30

-15

0

-1

2

0 a) Pm (mm)

-6

0

0

Pm (mm)

0 - 10

10 - 20

-30

30 - 40

40 - 50

50 - 60

60 - 70

70 - 80

80 - 90

90 - 330

-15

0

0 180

-1

2

0 b) Pc (mm)

-6

0

Pc (mm)

0 - 10

10 - 20

-30

30 - 40

40 - 50

50 - 60

60 - 70

70 - 80

80 - 90

90 - 390

-15

0

-1

2

0 c) CF

-6

0

CF

1 - 1.1

1.1 - 1.2

-30

1.3 - 1.4

1.4 - 1.5

1.5 - 1.6

1.6 - 1.7

1.7 - 1.8

1.8 - 1.9

1.9 - 2.3

0

• Total 4827 stations located north of 45N, with data records longer-than 15 years during 1973-2004.

• Similar Pm and Pc patterns – corrections did not significantly change the spatial distribution.

• CF pattern is different from the Pm and Pc patterns, very high CF along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean.

150

1

2

0

Mean Gauge-Measured (Pm) and Bias-Corrected (Pc)

Precipitation, and Correction Factor (CF) for July

Yang et al., 2005, GRL

6

0

1

2

0

1

2

0

6

0

6

0

30

150

30

150

30

-15

0

0

Pm (mm)

0 - 10

10 - 20

-30

30 - 40

40 - 50

50 - 60

60 - 70

70 - 80

80 - 90

90 - 250

-15

0

-1

2

0 b) Pc (mm)

-6

0

0

Pc (mm)

0 - 10

10 - 20

-30

30 - 40

40 - 50

50 - 60

60 - 70

70 - 80

80 - 90

90 - 300

-15

0

-1

2

0 a) Pm (mm)

-6

0

• Total 4802 stations with records longer-than 15 years during 1973-2004.

• Similar Pm and Pc patterns.

• Small CF variation for rainfall over space.

• CF pattern is different from the Pm and Pc patterns.

-1

2

0 c) CF

-6

0

CF

1 - 1.1

1.1 - 1.2

1.3 - 1.4

1.4 - 1.5

1.5 - 1.6

1.6 - 1.7

1.7 - 1.8

1.8 - 1.9

1.9 - 2

0

Impact of Bias-Corrections on Precip Trend

Pm & Pc Trend Comparison, Selected Stations with Data > 25 Yrs during 1973-04

-15

Jan.

-12 -9 -6 -3

15

12

9

6

3

0

-3

0

-6

-9 y = 1.2103x - 0.1012

R

2

= 0.9448

-12

-15

Pm trend (mm)

3 6 9 12 15

-7

Jul.

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1

-4

-5

-6

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

0

-2

-3

1

-7

Pm trend (mm)

2 3 4 y = 1.0575x

R

2

= 0.9962

5 6 7

Yang et al., 2005, GRL

RS snow data validation

- Comparison with in-situ snow data (scale issue)

- Regional / basin water budget calculations to assess moisture budget closure:

Basin/region winter snow mass balance

SWE = Snowfall – Sublimation

Basin spring water budget

Runoff = SWE + Precip. – Evaporation – Storage

Hydrologic modeling and snow assimilation

Large Arctic rivers & their annual discharge to the

Arctic

Ocean/marginal seas

5%

9%

Table 1: Physical characteristics for the five major rivers of the Arctic.

River Drainage

Name Area

(1,000 Km

2

)

River

Length

(Km)

Annual

Discharge

(Km

3

)

Mean Annual

Temperature

(

C)

Mean Yearly

Precipitation

(mm)

Snowfall

Percent

(%)

Total Res.

Capacity

Km3 / # dam

Ob

Yenisei

Lena

Yukon

Mackenzie

2,990

2,580

2,490

1,790

850

4,400

3,650

3,490

3,000

5,470

404

603

525

333

210

0.4

-4.3

-7.8

-5.1

-3.3

470

467

390

385

395

47

47

44

44

42

62 / 5

470 / 12

36 / 2

0 / 0

25 / 2

15%

17%

11%

Ob Basin Yenise Basin

50

1979,Q peak

=44,643m

3

/s

160

1990,Q peak

=157,286m

3

/s

200 Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) Information

140

40

120 150

30

20

10

0

0

1967,Q peak

=26,286m

3

/s

20 40

Modified Weeks

60

100

80

60

40

20

0

0

1968,Q peak

=64,771m

3

/s

20 40

Modified Weeks

60

100

50

0

0

Yukon Basin

1985,Q peak

=30,299m

3

/s

35

30

25

10

5

20

15

0

0

1978,Q peak

=12,969m

3

/s

20 40

Modified Weeks

60

35

30

25

10

5

20

15

0

0

Mackenzie Basin

20

1992,Q peak

=33,343m

3

/s

1995,Q peak

=15,086m

3

/s

40

Modified Weeks

60

Lena Basin

1989,Q peak

=177,429m

3

/s

1998,Q peak

=84,457m

3

/s

20 40

Modified Weeks

60

Streamflow interannual variation:

Basin extreme (weeklymean) discharge (m3/s).

Data source: UNH/SHI

Ob Yenise

140

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) Information

120 1994,SWE max

= 114.2mm

140

120

140

120

100

80

60

40

1997,SWE max

= 75.2mm

100

2001,SWE max

= 97.8mm

80

60

40

1998,SWE max

= 76.2mm

100

80

60

40

Lena

2000,SWE max

= 136.4mm

1. Lena basin has the

1993,SWE max

= 109.2mm

highest winter snow pack, and

Yenisei basin has the lowest.

20 20 20

0 0.5mm

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54

Modified Weeks

140

Yukon

1998,SWE max

= 124.7mm

0 0.5mm

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54

Modified Weeks

140

Mackenzie

0

0

2. The snow pack

Modified Weeks accumulate to the highest in winter,

120 120

100

2001,SWE max

= 102.6mm

100

80

1991,SWE max

= 80.9mm

80

1993,SWE max

= 82.1mm

annual variation

2. For study

60 60

40 40

20

0 0.5mm

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54

Modified Weeks

20

0 0.5mm

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54

Modified Weeks is considered

‘empty’.

0

150

75

0

75

0

150

150

75

Basin SWE (mm) vs. weekly discharge (m3/s),

Lena R., 1988-99

1988

200 150

The SWE and Dicharge in Lena Basin, 1988~1999

200 150

1989 1990

200 150

100 75 100 75 100 75

1991

200

100

0 0

200 150

0 0

200 150

0 0

200 150

0

200

1992 1993 1994 1995

100 75 100 75 100 75 100

1996

0 0

200 150

100 75

0 0

1997

0 0

200 150

100 75

0 0

Weeks

1998

0 0

200 150

100 75

0 0

1999

0

200

100

0

Basin SWE vs. winter precip (mm), Lena R., 1988-2001

350

300

250

200

150

100

1988-1989

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

100

1992-1993

50

0

35 40 45 50 2 7 12 17 22

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

1996-1997

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

2000-2001

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

100

1989-1990

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

100

1993-1994

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

1997-1998

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

SWE

AP

Weeks

350

300

250

200

150

100

1990-1991

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

100

1994-1995

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

1998-1999

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

100

1991-1992

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

100

1995-1996

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

1999-2000

0

35 40 45 50 2 7 12 17 22

Basin SWE vs. winter precip (mm), Ob R., 1988-2001

350

300

250

200

150

1988-1989

100

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

1992-1993

100

50

0

35 40 45 50 2 7 12 17 22

350

300

250

200

150

1996-1997

100

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

2000-2001

100

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

1989-1990

100

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

1993-1994

100

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

1997-1998

100

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

SWE

AP

Weeks

350

300

250

200

150

1990-1991

100

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

1994-1995

100

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

1998-1999

100

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

1991-1992

100

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

1995-1996

100

50

0

35 40 45 50 3 8 13 18 23

350

300

250

200

150

1999-2000

100

50

0

35 40 45 50 2 7 12 17 22

4. Recommendations

IPWG/GPM/GRP Workshop on Global Microwave Modeling and

Applications

• Climate

Retrieval of Snowfall, Oct.11-13, 2005

Co-Organizers: Ralph Ferraro (NOAA/NESDIS),

Ralf Bennartz (University of Wisconsin)

• Data assimilation and NWP

• Nowcasting, Short Range Forecasting, Severe weather

• Hydrology

Modeling and remote sensing of snowfall

• Particle optical properties

• Cloud microphysics modeling

• Forward modeling uncertainties

• Statistical and physical approaches for snowfall retrieval

New technology

• Active/passive sensor combination (CloudSat/AQUA), GPM, EGPM

• Microwave and sub-millimeter radiometers

• Ground based remote sensing

Validation

• Validation requirements for global satellite retrievals

• High latitude validation sites

• Field campaigns

Gauge networks and observations

– Network

• continue conventional point precipitation measurements against declining networks in many countries

• sustain and enhance the gauge network in the cold regions;

• develop guidelines on the minimum station density required for climate research studies on solid precipitation in cold climate regions

– Data

• undertake bias analysis and corrections of historical precipitation gauge data at regional to global scale

• ensure regular monitoring of the snowfall real-time data, quality control and transmission

• examine the impact of automation on precipitation measurement and related QA/QC challenges, including compatibility between national data, and manual vs. auto gauge observations

• develop digitized metadata for regional and national networks

– Test facility/new technology

• identify and establish intercomparison sites for standardized testing of new technology, such as polarization radar, CASA radar networks, hot plate, pressure, or blowing snow sensors

• encourage national research agencies to establish programs to provide support for the development of new instruments to measure solid precipitation in high latitude regions

• use of wind shields and direct measurement of winds at emerging auto gauge sites/networks

Satellites

– Need GPM ASAP and strongly encourage the EGPM mission to measure global rain/snowfall data, including major parts of the N regions

– Need to blend (combine) data from different sources (in-situ, model, satellite)

– Need to systematically evaluate RS snow data / products over cold regions via direct comparisons, analyses of basin water budget and compatibility in basin/region SWE-runoff, SWE-snowfall

– Need to maintain reasonable expectations on what satellite and radar technologies are able to provide

– Need for further intensive field efforts to address scaling issues.

– Need for new technology development

• The use of combined active and passive satellite data for snowfall detection/retrieval should be further encouraged.

• Active space-borne instruments need to have a low detectability threshold (better than than 5 dBz) to detect light rainfall and snowfall. Deployment of rain radars with lower detectability threshold is encouraged.

• New passive microwave instruments and new channel combinations need to be studied, particularly at high frequency.

• The sounding channel technique proposed by the EGPM mission should be implemented.

• The new Meteosat Second Generation has many more channels than previous geostationary satellites. They have been able to provide information on particle size and phase. Exploration of these additional channels for precipitation estimation is encouraged.

• Aircraft sensors together with extended channel selection studies provide an excellent testbed for future satellite instruments. Dedicated high latitude aircraft campaigns for snowfall remote sensing are encouraged.

Ground Radar

– Need to expand the radar networks to the northern/cold regions and to obtain more useful radar observations of snowfall.

• The CASA radar concept should be deployed with high sensitivity for the detection of snow, low level measurements and in complex terrain.

– Need to share data and to create regional and global radar data sets

• international radar data quality intercomparisons to remove inter-radar biases of precipitation estimates.

• Availability of common or open source algorithms for generating precipitation estimates are needed to understand the biases and errors.

– Need for development and further refinement of inexpensive groundbased remote sensing instruments for snowfall should be encouraged, including vertically pointing micro radars, such as (Precipitation

Occurrence Sensing System) POSS or Micro-Rain-Radar (MRR).

– Encourage use of combined active and passive satellite data for snowfall detection/retrieval

– Need to study new passive microwave instruments and new channel combinations

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